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At least 37 records · Page 2

Rocket engine failure detection using system identification techiques

The theoretical foundation and application of two univariate failure detection algorithms to Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) test firing data is presented. Both algorithms were applied to data collected during steady state operation of the engine. One algorithm, the time series algorithm, is based on time series techniques and involves the computation of autoregressive models. Times series techniques have been previously applied to SSME data. The second algorithm is based on standard signal processing techniques. It consists of tracking the variations in the average signal power with time. The average signal power algorithm is a newly proposed SSME failure detection algorithm. Seven nominal test firings were used to develop failure indication thresholds for each algorithm. These thresholds were tested using four anomalous firings and one additional nominal firing. Both algorithms provided significantly earlier failure indication times than did the current redline limit system. Neither algorithm gave false failure indications for the nominal firing. The strengths and weaknesses of the two algorithms are discussed and compared. The average signal algorithm was found to have several advantages over the time series algorithm.

Meyer, Claudia M.↗

Rocket engine failure detection using system identification techniques

The theoretical foundation and application of two univariate failure detection algorithms to Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) test firing data is presented. Both algorithms were applied to data collected during steady state operation of the engine. One algorithm, the time series algorithm, is based on time series techniques and involves the computation of autoregressive models. Time series techniques have been previously applied to SSME data. The second algorithm is based on standard signal processing techniques. It consists of tracking the variations in the average signal power with time. The average signal power algorithm is a newly proposed SSME failure detection algorithm. Seven nominal test firings were used to develop failure indication thresholds for each algorithm. These thresholds were tested using four anomalous firings and one additional nominal firing. Both algorithms provided significantly earlier failure indication times than did the current redline limit system. Neither algorithm gave false failure indications for the nominal firing. The strengths and weaknesses of the two algorithms are discussed and compared. The average signal algorithm was found to have several advantages over the time series algorithm.

Meyer, Claudia M.↗

Real-Time Early Warning Techniques

Contemporary approaches to aerospace vehicle system monitoring rely heavily on thresholds that represent a compromise between providing warning early enough to avert a mishap while simultaneously minimizing false alarms. While this reliance on thresholds has been in place for decades and has permeated both cockpits and control rooms, we often find it insufficient when retrospectively analyzing data from an accident. To modernize and enhance flight test safety, we introduce new methods of monitoring for anomalous patterns of interaction rather than for thresholds exceedance. For systems with a well characterized baseline we show how the Inductive Monitoring System (IMS), utilized by NASA in the aftermath of the Columbia accident, might be implemented in real-time to provide earlier warning than currently employed techniques. For systems without such a baseline, we introduce new developments in statistical methods relating to critical slowing down, first applied in medicine and physics, which show promise for adaptation to flight test. Finally, the familiar resource constrained environment leads to a reliance on increased instrumentation that is challenging the limits of the current one-sensor, one-indicator threshold paradigm. Existing methods thus fail to accurately reflect the true complexity of a vehicle rich with interdependent interacting systems. We highlight these concepts in a brief summary of the 2001 Air Transat Flight 236 deadstick landing in the Azores. We then suggest control room and cockpit modifications to better display the information gleaned using these novel monitoring methods.

Javorsek, Dan↗

Enhancing Flight Test Safety with Real-Time Early Warning Techniques

Contemporary approaches to aerospace vehicle system monitoring rely heavily on thresholds that represent a compromise between providing warning early enough to avert a mishap while simultaneously minimizing false alarms. While this reliance on thresholds has been in place for decades and has permeated both cockpits and control rooms, we often find it insufficient when retrospectively analyzing data from an accident. To modernize and enhance flight test safety, we introduce new methods of monitoring for anomalous patterns of interaction rather than for thresholds exceedance. For systems with a well characterized baseline we show how the Inductive Monitoring System (IMS), utilized by NASA in the aftermath of the Columbia accident, might be implemented in real-time to provide earlier warning than currently employed techniques. For systems without such a baseline, we introduce new developments in statistical methods relating to critical slowing down, first applied in medicine and physics, which show promise for adaptation to flight test. Finally, the familiar resource constrained environment leads to a reliance on increased instrumentation that is challenging the limits of the current "one-sensor, one-indicator" threshold paradigm. Existing methods thus fail to accurately reflect the true complexity of a vehicle rich with interdependent interacting systems. We highlight these concepts in a brief summary of the 2001 Air Transat Flight 236 deadstick landing in the Azores. We then suggest control room and cockpit modifications to better display the information gleaned using these novel monitoring methods.

Javorsek, Daniel, II↗

A New Bond Albedo for Performing Orbital Debris Brightness to Size Transformations

We have developed a technique for estimating the intrinsic size distribution of orbital debris objects via optical measurements alone. The process is predicated on the empirically observed power-law size distribution of debris (as indicated by radar RCS measurements) and the log-normal probability distribution of optical albedos as ascertained from phase (Lambertian) and range-corrected telescopic brightness measurements. Since the observed distribution of optical brightness is the product integral of the size distribution of the parent [debris] population with the albedo probability distribution, it is a straightforward matter to transform a given distribution of optical brightness back to a size distribution by the appropriate choice of a single albedo value. This is true because the integration of a powerlaw with a log-normal distribution (Fredholm Integral of the First Kind) yields a Gaussian-blurred power-law distribution with identical power-law exponent. Application of a single albedo to this distribution recovers a simple power-law [in size] which is linearly offset from the original distribution by a constant whose value depends on the choice of the albedo. Significantly, there exists a unique Bond albedo which, when applied to an observed brightness distribution, yields zero offset and therefore recovers the original size distribution. For physically realistic powerlaws of negative slope, the proper choice of albedo recovers the parent size distribution by compensating for the observational bias caused by the large number of small objects that appear anomalously large (bright) - and thereby skew the small population upward by rising above the detection threshold - and the lower number of large objects that appear anomalously small (dim). Based on this comprehensive analysis, a value of 0.13 should be applied to all orbital debris albedo-based brightness-to-size transformations regardless of data source. Its prima fascia genesis, derived and constructed from the current RCS to size conversion methodology (SiBAM Size-Based Estimation Model) and optical data reduction standards, assures consistency in application with the prior canonical value of 0.1. Herein we present the empirical and mathematical arguments for this approach and by example apply it to a comprehensive set of photometric data acquired via NASA's Liquid Mirror Telescopes during the 2000-2001 observing season.

Mulrooney, Mark K.↗

Observation of the Anomalous Shape of X ( 1840 ) in J / ψ → γ 3 ( π + π − ) Indicating a Second Resonance Near p p ¯ Threshold

Using a sample of ( 10087 ± 44 ) × 10 6 J / ψ events, which is about 45 times larger than that was previously analyzed, a further investigation on the J / ψ → γ 3 ( π + π − ) decay is performed. A significant distortion at 1.84 GeV / c 2 in the line shape of the 3 ( π + π − ) invariant mass spectrum is observed for the first time, which could be resolved by two overlapping resonant structures, X ( 1840 ) and X ( 1880 ) . The new state X ( 1880 ) is observed with a statistical significance larger than 10 σ . The mass and width of X ( 1880 ) are determined to be 1882.1 ± 1.7 ± 0.7 MeV / c 2 and 30.7 ± 5.5 ± 2.4 MeV , respectively, which indicates the existence of a p p ¯ bound state. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Physics↗

Regime Characterization of Offshore Wind Resource Using Unsupervised Learning

Predictability of wind resource conditions is critical for offshore wind design and operations. While many studies of extreme wind conditions focus on specific events such as low-level jets or ramps, these rely on threshold definitions that limit generality. Here we present a data-driven framework that combines principal component analysis (PCA), self-organizing maps (SOM), and k-means clustering to classify wind resource conditions as typical and anomalous from climatological data. Anomalies are defined not by fixed thresholds but by flagging samples located far from SOM node centers inside the baseline SOM structure. This reframes extremes as rare ebents and hence, likely difficult to anticipate by numerical weather prediction models. We applied this approach to 23 years (2000–2022) of hourly profiles from the NOW-23 hindcast model at the Humboldt Wind Energy Area. Classification is conducted on a feature space consisting of 10 m wind speed and direction, bulk shear and veer across 30–270 m, and a low-level jet index. Dimensionality reduction is achieved through PC. A 2 × 3 OM lattice trained on the PCA vectors identified six baseline regimes spanning weak to strong flow states. High quantization-error profiles are identified and re-clustered into four anomalous regimes. The baseline regimes exhibited clear seasonal and diurnal cycles. Meanwhile, the anomalous regimes represented <10 % of all hours but showed distinct combinations of speed, shear, and veer, when compared to the baseline regimes. Anomalous regimes are typically short-lived (~few hours), yet their transitions can lead to hub-height wind changes of −18 to +9 m s -1 . For a representative 15 MW turbine, these shifts imply rapid swings in capacity factor from near-full output to negligible generation. Validation with lidar buoy data showed 51% agreement in SOM labels across ~6,000 overlapping hours, with most mismatches confined to adjacent speed classes. HRRR comparisons further revealed that anomalous regimes were disproportionately associated with forecast biases exceeding 5 m s -1 . Together, these results reframe extremes in offshore wind from absolute maxima or minima to weather states that are difficult to anticipate from models.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Anomalous resistivity resulting from electrostatic ion cyclotron turbulence

The paper considers the generation of electrostatic ion cyclotron turbulence in an isothermal isotropic magnetized plasma where the drift velocity is below that of the ion-acoustic threshold. The saturated turbulence spectrum is found to be that which results from anomalous nonlinear wave damping related to stochastic ion-orbit diffusion in configuration space. An expression is obtained for the collective electrical resistivity resulting from current-driven electrostatic ion cyclotron turbulence.

Ionson, J. A.↗

Application of Chebyshev’s Inequality in Online Anomaly Detection Driven by Streaming PMU Data

The day-to-day operation of modern power systems is highly reliant on prompt and adequate situational-awareness. This can be achieved via various system monitoring functions such as anomaly detection, in which static thresholds are commonly utilized to distinguish the normal and the abnormal system states. However, a predetermined static threshold usually lacks the flexibility to adapt to unobserved scenarios. In this paper, we propose two self-adaptive synchrophasor data driven anomaly detection approaches based on Chebyshev’s Inequality. The proposed approaches have been evaluated with Kundur’s 2area system and Mini-WECC system. Experimental results verify that the proposed approaches can dynamically adapt to unprecedented scenarios, and detect anomalous events with lower false alarm rate compared to static threshold based detection.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Nonlinear stability of solar type 3 radio bursts. 2: Application to observations near 1 AU

A set of rate equations including strong turbulence effects and anomalous resitivity are solved using parmeters which model several solar type 3 bursts. Exciter distributions observed at 1 AU are excitation of the linear bump-in-tail instability, amplifying Langmuir waves above the threshold for the oscillating two stream instability (OTSI). The OTSI, and the attendant anomalous resistivity produce a rapid spectral transfer of Langmuir waves to short wavelengths, out of resonance with the electron exciter. Further energy loss of the beam is thus precluded. The various parameters needed to model the bursts are extrapolated inside 1 AU with similar results. Again, the OTSI is excited and decouples the electron beam from the Langmuir radiation. Reabsorption of the Langmuir waves by the beam is shown to be unimportant in all cases, even at 0.1 AU. The theory provides a natural explanation for the observed realationship between radio flux, and the electron flux.

Goldstein, M. L.↗

Temporal variations of the anomalous oxygen component, 1977 - 1984

A survey is of the long term temporal variations of 6.6 to 12 MeV/nucleon anomalous oxygen at 1 AU covering the period 1977 to 1984. This time interval included the recent solar maximum, with the recovery at neutron monitor energies beginning in 1982. During this time interval, 6.6 to 12 MeV/nucleon 0 fluxes decreased by at least a factor of 50, and indeed remained below the instrumental detection threshold after 1979. By late 1984, neutron monitors had recovered to roughly 1979 levels from the 1982 solar maximum, and anomalous O still remained below the detection threshold.

Mason, G. M.↗

Monitoring of Liquid Metal Reactor Heater Zones with Recurrent Neural Network Learning of Temperature Time Series

Advanced high-temperature fluid reactors (ARs), such as sodium fast reactors (SFRs) and molten salt cooled reactors (MSCRs) utilize high-temperature fluids at ambient pressure. To melt the fluid during reactor startup and prevent fluid freezing during cooldown, the thermal–hydraulic systems of such ARs include heater zones consisting of specific heaters with controllers, temperature sensors, and thermal insulation. The failure of heater zones due to insulation material degradation or improper installation, resulting in parasitic heat losses, can lead to fluid freezing. The detection of faults using a heat-transfer model is difficult because of a lack of knowledge of the experimental details. Data-driven machine learning of heater zone temperature time series offers a viable alternative. In this study, we benchmarked the performance of recurrent neural networks (RNNs) in an analysis of heat-up transient temperature time series of heater zones installed on a liquid sodium vessel. The RNN models include long short-term memory (LSTM) and gated recurrent unit (GRU) networks, as well as their bi-directional variants, BiLSTM and BiGRU. Anomalous temperature points were designated using a percentile-based threshold applied to residual fluctuations in the detrended temperature time series. Additionally, the impact of the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) method on detection accuracy was examined. The RNN models’ performance was assessed using precision, recall, and F 1 score metrics. Results demonstrated that RNN models effectively detect anomalies in temperature time series with the best models for each heater zone achieving F 1 scores of over 93%. To explain the variations in RNN model performance across different heater zones, we used Kullback–Leibler (KL) divergence to quantify the relative entropy between training and testing data, and the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) to assess long-range temporal correlations. For datasets with strong long-range correlations and minimal relative entropy between training and testing data, GRU is the best-performing model. When the data exhibits weaker long-term correlations and a significant relative entropy between training and testing distributions, BiGRU shows the best performance. For the data sets with intermediate values of both KL divergence and DFA, the best performance is obtained with LSTM and BiLSTM, respectively.

gated recurrent unit↗

Threshold charmonium photoproduction with GlueX

Exclusive charmonium photoproduction near threshold opens the door for studying the gluonic properties of the proton: gluonic GPDs, anomalous contribution to the mass of the proton, gravitational form factors, the mass radius of the proton. However, such an ambitious program requires precise measurements to validate the theoretical assumptions that relate the experimental results to the above quantities. The first total cross-section measurements of near-threshold exclusive J/? photoproduction (?p?J/?p) by the GlueX collaboration sparked remarkable theoretical interest, however had limited statistics. We will report new total cross-section results based on more than a four-fold increase in statistics. Even more, due to the full acceptance of the GlueX experiment for this reaction, we will present first measurements of the differential cross-sections over the whole near-threshold kinematic region. Such measurements enable more general conclusions about the reaction mechanism when compared to a wide range of theoretical predictions including GPD calculations and models with open-charm intermediate states.

Pentchev, Lubomir↗

Nonlinear stability of solar type III radio bursts. II - Application to observations near 1 AU

A set of rate equations including strong turbulence effects and anomalous resistivity are solved using parameters which model several solar type III bursts. Analysis of these bursts has led to quantitative comparisons between several of the observed phenomena and the theory. Through use of an analytic model for the time evolution of the energetic electron exciter, it is found that the exciter distributions observed at 1 AU are unstable to the excitation of the linear bump-in-tail instability, amplifying Langmuir waves above the threshold for the oscillating two-stream instability (OTSI). The OTSI and the attendant anomalous resistivity produce a rapid spectral transfer of Langmuir waves to short wavelengths, out of resonance with the electron exciter. In addition, the various parameters needed to model the bursts are extrapolated inside 1 AU with similar results. Finally, reabsorption of the Langmuir waves by the beam is shown to be unimportant in all cases, even at 0.1 AU.

Goldstein, M. L.↗

Using new edges for anomaly detection in computer networks

Creation of new edges in a network may be used as an indication of a potential attack on the network. Historical data of a frequency with which nodes in a network create and receive new edges may be analyzed. Baseline models of behavior among the edges in the network may be established based on the analysis of the historical data. A new edge that deviates from a respective baseline model by more than a predetermined threshold during a time window may be detected. The new edge may be flagged as potentially anomalous when the deviation from the respective baseline model is detected. Probabilities for both new and existing edges may be obtained for all edges in a path or other subgraph. The probabilities may then be combined to obtain a score for the path or other subgraph. A threshold may be obtained by calculating an empirical distribution of the scores under historical conditions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Relativistic electron acceleration and decay time scales in the inner and outer radiation belts: SAMPEX

High-energy electrons have been measured systematically in a low-altitude (520 x 675 km), nearly polar (inclination = 82 deg) orbit by sensitive instruments onboard the Solar, Anomalous, and Magnetospheric Particle Explorer (SAMPEX). Count rate channels with electron energy thresholds ranging from 0.4 MeV to 3.5 MeV in three different instruments have been used to examine relativistic electron variations as a function of L-shell parameter and time. A long run of essentially continuous data (July 1992 - July 1993) shows substantial acceleration of energetic electrons throughout much of the magnetosphere on rapid time scales. This acceleration appears to be due to solar wind velocity enhancements and is surprisingly large in that the radiation belt 'slot' region often is filled temporarily and electron fluxes are strongly enhanced even at very low L-values (L aprroximately 2). A superposed epoch analysis shows that electron fluxes rise rapidly for 2.5 is approximately less than L is approximately less than 5. These increases occur on a time scale of order 1-2 days and are most abrupt for L-values near 3. The temporal decay rate of the fluxes is dependent on energy and L-value and may be described by J = Ke-t/to with t(sub o) approximately equals 5-10 days. Thus, these results suggest that the Earth's magnetosphere is a cosmic electron accelerator of substantial strength and efficiency.

Baker, D. N.↗

Electric dipole moments in 5+3 flavor weak effective theory

A fully generic treatment of electric dipole moments (EDMs) is presented in the CP-violating and flavor-conserving weak effective field theory (WET) with five flavors of quarks and three flavors of leptons. We systematically analyze leading contributions to EDMs originating from QCD and QED renormalization group running between the electroweak scale and low energy scales of about 2 GeV. We include the full one-loop anomalous dimension and a subset of two-loop corrections, as well as threshold corrections at the bottom, charm and τ masses. This allows us to derive master formulae in the space of generic WET for the neutron and proton EDMs, for EDMs of diamagnetic atoms, and for the precession frequencies constrained in molecular EDM experiments, from which bounds on the electron EDM are extracted. In particular, our master formulae capture the contributions of WET CP-violating operators with heavy quark and lepton flavors. As an application, we study EDM constraints on the Yukawa couplings of the Higgs boson, in both the linear and non-linear realizations of electroweak symmetry breaking.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Theory of plasma waves in the auroral E region

A general theory is developed for both electrojet waves and ion cyclotron and current convective waves observed above 120 km altitude. Previously defined electrojet instability theories are extended to encompass the effects of the magnetic field on ions and the presence of field-aligned currents. The ion-cyclotron (E) waves are assumed produced by the two-stream instability in regions dominated by ion magnetization effects. Field-aligned and cross-field currents drive the E waves, which have displayed threshold drift velocities (TDV) sensitive to conditions at altitudes with effective electron/ion and anomalous electron collision frequencies. The electron density gradients in the region affect the magnitude of the TDV for waves on scales of tens of meters. Recombinational damping increases the TDV for marginal damping of two-stream E waves and establishes a TDV for excitation of large-scale gradient drift waves which propagate nearly perpendicularly to the magnetic field and may have only 10-20 m wavelengths.

Fejer, B. G.↗