Cl-36 and Mn-53 in Antarctic meteorites and (Be-10)-(Cl-36) dating of Antarctic ice
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Nishiizumi, K.↗
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Evolution of the Antarctic polar vortex in spring: Response of a GCM to a prescribed Antarctic ozone hole
The possible effect of the Antartic ozone hole on the evolution of the polar vortex during late winter and spring using a general circulation model (GCM) is examined. The GCM is a version of the NCAR Community Climate Model whose domain extends from the surface to the mesosphere and is similar to that described on Boville and Randel (1986). Ozone is not a predicted variable in the model. A zonally averaged ozone distribution is specified as a function of latitude, pressure and month for the radiation parameterization. Rather that explicitly address reasons for the formation of the ozone hole, researchers postulate its existence and ask what effect it has on the subsequent evolution of the vortex. The evolution of the model when an ozone hole is imposed is then discussed.
Boville, B. A.↗
Antarctic Meteorite Location and Mapping Project (AMLAMP): Antarctic meteorite location map series explanatory text and user's guide to AMLAMP data
This technical report is an update to LPI Technical Report 89-02, which contained data and information that was current to May 1987. Since that time approximately 4000 new meteorites have been collected, mapped, and characterized, mainly from the numerous ice fields in the Allan Hills-David Glacier region, from the Pecora Escarpment and Moulton Escarpment in the Thiel Mountains-Patuxent region, the Wisconsin Range region, and from the Beardmore region. Meteorite location maps for ice fields from these regions have been produced and are available. This report includes explanatory texts for the maps of new areas and provides information on updates of maps of the areas covered in LPI Technical Report 89-02. Sketch maps and description of locales that have been searched and have yielded single or few meteorites are also included. The meteorite listings for all the ice fields have been updated to include any classification changes and new meteorites recovered from ice fields in the Allan Hills-David Glacier region since 1987. The text has been reorganized and minor errors in the original report have been corrected. Computing capabilities have improved immensely since the early days of this project. Current software and hardware allow easy access to data over computer networks. With various commercial software packages, the data can be used many different ways, including database creation, statistics, and mapping. The databases, explanatory texts, and the plotter files used to produce the meteorite location maps are available through a computer network. Information on how to access AMLAMP data, its formats, and ways it can be used are given in the User's Guide to AMLAMP Data section. Meteorite location maps and thematic maps may be ordered from the Lunar and Planetary Institute. Ordering information is given in Appendix A.
Schutt, J.↗
Cosmogenic C-14 in Antarctic and non-Antarctic meteorites and lunar samples
We were able to develop measurements of C-14 in meteorites as a useful tool for estimates of terrestrial age. Prior to this accomplishment, only a few measurements of C-14 terrestrial ages had been made. The sample sizes were larger, and there had been no systematic study of the various parameters affecting production of C-14, such as depth dependence, and the production cross sections for C-14 from spallation amounted to a few data points. Presently, C-14 ages are an accepted terrestrial age estimate in the meteorite community, whereas before this work the few data available were difficult to interpret. We have obtained terrestrial ages not only on groups of meteorites from different geographic areas but also information on unique meteorites from particularly interesting groups, such as meteorites originating from the Moon, or SNC meteorites, which many researchers believe are derived from Mars.
Jull, A. J. Timothy↗
Parallels Between Antarctic Travel in 1950 and Planetary Travel in 2050 (to Accompany Notes on "The Norwegian British-Swedish Antarctic Expedition 1949-52")
Objectives (Slides 2, 12, 21-22) To explore as much as possible of 1 million km2 of unexplored territory. We were the first expedition to winter in Antarctica between 95 E and 57 W - nearly half the coastline of Antarctica. It was understood that we must be self-sufficient in every respect for 2 years. There could be no firm or detailed plans for inland exploration until we found where it was possible to make a landing. Geology (Slide 20) Our two geologists traveled far from the Advance Base during both field seasons. Carrying fuel supplies (dog food) for a month, man food (dehydrated) and rock specimens acquired along the way, they covered a vast area. The surveyor drove his own dogs with the geophysicist as assistant. While the geologists were hacking away at rocks, the survey team lugged a theodolite up peaks to extend a triangulation network. Glaciology (Slides 21-22) The glaciologists each had an assistant from the support staff, so they could either travel together or divided into two parties to cover more ground. At each camp they dug a pit to determine the rate of snow accumulation, drilled (by hand) to a depth of 10 m to measure ice temperatures, and in places set up and surveyed ice-movement markers to be resurveyed the following season. Geophysics (Slides 33, 34-36, 38) The principal object was to determine the thickness of ice by seismic sounding the only means known at the time. After experiments as far as the Advance Base in the 1950-51 summer, both Weasels were devoted to a seismic sounding traverse in 1951-52 as far inland as supplies would allow. The party reached 620 km inland and found ice thicknesses of 2,500 m.
Swithinbank, Charles↗
Antarctic-wide ice-shelf firn emulation reveals robust future firn air depletion signal for the Antarctic Peninsula
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Devon Dunmire↗
Influence of sea-ice anomalies on Antarctic precipitation using source attribution in the Community Earth System Model
Abstract. We conduct sensitivity experiments using a general circulation model that has an explicit water source tagging capability forced by prescribed composites of pre-industrial sea-ice concentrations (SICs) and corresponding sea surface temperatures (SSTs) to understand the impact of sea-ice anomalies on regional evaporation, moisture transport and source–receptor relationships for Antarctic precipitation in the absence of anthropogenic forcing. Surface sensible heat fluxes, evaporation and column-integrated water vapor are larger over Southern Ocean (SO) areas with lower SICs. Changes in Antarctic precipitation and its source attribution with SICs have a strong spatial variability. Among the tagged source regions, the Southern Ocean (south of 50° S) contributes the most (40 %) to the Antarctic total precipitation, followed by more northerly ocean basins, most notably the South Pacific Ocean (27%), southern Indian Ocean (16 %) and South Atlantic Ocean (11 %). Comparing two experiments prescribed with high and low pre-industrial SICs, respectively, the annual mean Antarctic precipitation is about 150 Gt yr-1 (or 6 %) more in the lower SIC case than in the higher SIC case. This difference is larger than the model-simulated interannual variability in Antarctic precipitation (99 Gt yr-1). The contrast in contribution from the Southern Ocean, 102 Gt yr-1, is even more significant compared to the interannual variability of 35 Gt yr-1 in Antarctic precipitation that originates from the Southern Ocean. The horizontal transport pathways from individual vapor source regions to Antarctica are largely determined by large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. Vapor from lower-latitude source regions takes elevated pathways to Antarctica. In contrast, vapor from the Southern Ocean moves southward within the lower troposphere to the Antarctic continent along moist isentropes that are largely shaped by local ambient conditions and coastal topography. This study also highlights the importance of atmospheric dynamics in affecting the thermodynamic impact of sea-ice anomalies associated with natural variability on Antarctic precipitation. Our analyses of the seasonal contrast in changes of basin-scale evaporation, moisture flux and precipitation suggest that the impact of SIC anomalies on regional Antarctic precipitation depends on dynamic changes that arise from SIC–SST perturbations along with internal variability. The latter appears to have a more significant effect on the moisture transport in austral winter than in summer.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Influence of Sea-Ice Anomalies on Antarctic Precipitation Using Source Attribution in the Community Earth System Model
We conduct sensitivity experiments using a general circulation model that has an explicit water source tagging capability forced by prescribed composites of pre-industrial sea-ice concentrations (SICs) and corresponding sea surface temperatures (SSTs) to understand the impact of sea-ice anomalies on regional evaporation, moisture transport and source–receptor relationships for Antarctic precipitation in the absence of anthropogenic forcing. Surface sensible heat fluxes, evaporation and column-integrated water vapor are larger over Southern Ocean (SO) areas with lower SICs. Changes in Antarctic precipitation and its source attribution with SICs have a strong spatial variability. Among the tagged source regions, the Southern Ocean (south of 50∘ S) contributes the most (40 %) to the Antarctic total precipitation, followed by more northerly ocean basins, most notably the South Pacific Ocean (27%), southern Indian Ocean (16 %) and South Atlantic Ocean (11 %). Comparing two experiments prescribed with high and low pre-industrial SICs, respectively, the annual mean Antarctic precipitation is about 150 Gt yr−1 (or 6 %) more in the lower SIC case than in the higher SIC case. This difference is larger than the model-simulated interannual variability in Antarctic precipitation (99 Gt yr−1). The contrast in contribution from the Southern Ocean, 102 Gt yr−1, is even more significant compared to the interannual variability of 35 Gt yr−1 in Antarctic precipitation that originates from the Southern Ocean. The horizontal transport pathways from individual vapor source regions to Antarctica are largely determined by large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. Vapor from lower-latitude source regions takes elevated pathways to Antarctica. In contrast, vapor from the Southern Ocean moves southward within the lower troposphere to the Antarctic continent along moist isentropes that are largely shaped by local ambient conditions and coastal topography. This study also highlights the importance of atmospheric dynamics in affecting the thermodynamic impact of sea-ice anomalies associated with natural variability on Antarctic precipitation. Our analyses of the seasonal contrast in changes of basin-scale evaporation, moisture flux and precipitation suggest that the impact of SIC anomalies on regional Antarctic precipitation depends on dynamic changes that arise from SIC–SST perturbations along with internal variability. The latter appears to have a more significant effect on the moisture transport in austral winter than in summer.
Wang, Hailong↗
The Relative Importance of Antarctic Sea Ice Loss within the Response to Greenhouse Warming
Abstract The response to Antarctic sea ice loss within a coupled modeling framework is examined in comparison to the response to Arctic sea ice loss and within the context of general greenhouse warming. Sea ice loss responses are found to be linear (particularly in response to Antarctic or global sea ice loss) with respect to the degree of imposed perturbation and additive when perturbations are applied in hemispheres separately and concurrently. Globally, and in the tropical Pacific in particular, Antarctic sea ice loss plays a relatively larger role than Arctic sea ice loss in both the atmosphere and the ocean, within the parameters of our experiments. The pattern of response to Antarctic sea ice loss is also found to more closely resemble that of greenhouse warming, again particularly in the tropics. An extension to multiparameter pattern scaling is developed to include a scaling factor for Antarctic change in addition to those for tropical warming and Arctic sea ice loss. The decomposition is applied to the modeled response to Antarctic sea ice loss to break it down into component partial responses that scale with Antarctic, tropical, and Arctic changes. This reveals the aspects of the response that are directly related to Antarctic change, such as an equatorward intensification of tropical precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere, and those that are modified via the induced changes in the tropics and Arctic, such as Northern Hemisphere temperature change. With this, we hope to gain a deeper understanding of the role of each of these changes for the development of physical mechanisms of the response.
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
The Effects of Interactive Stratospheric Chemistry on Antarctic and Southern Ocean Climate Change in an AOGCM
Stratospheric ozone depletion has played a dominant role in driving Antarctic climate change in the last decades. In order to capture the stratospheric ozone forcing, many coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) prescribe the Antarctic ozone hole using monthly and zonally averaged ozone field. However, the prescribed ozone hole has a high ozone bias and lacks zonal asymmetry. The impacts of these biases on model simulations, particularly on Southern Ocean and the Antarctic sea ice, are not well understood. The purpose of this study is to determine the effects of using interactive stratospheric chemistry instead of prescribed ozone on Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate change in an AOGCM. We compare two sets of ensemble simulations for the 1960-2010 period using different versions of the Goddard Earth Observing System 5 - AOGCM: one with interactive stratospheric chemistry, and the other with prescribed monthly and zonally averaged ozone and 6 other stratospheric radiative species calculated from the interactive chemistry simulations. Consistent with previous studies using prescribed sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations, the interactive chemistry runs simulate a deeper Antarctic ozone hole and consistently larger changes in surface pressure and winds than the prescribed ozone runs. The use of a coupled atmosphere-ocean model in this study enables us to determine the impact of these surface changes on Southern Ocean circulation and Antarctic sea ice. The larger surface wind trends in the interactive chemistry case lead to larger Southern Ocean circulation trends with stronger changes in northerly and westerly surface flow near the Antarctica continent and stronger upwelling near 60S. Using interactive chemistry also simulates a larger decrease of sea ice concentrations. Our results highlight the importance of using interactive chemistry in order to correctly capture the influences of stratospheric ozone depletion on climate change over Antarctic and the Southern Ocean.
Antarctic climate change↗
Global Climate Impacts of Greenland and Antarctic Meltwater: A Comparative Study
Both the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have been melting at an accelerating rate over recent decades. Meltwater from Greenland might be expected to initiate a climate response which is distinct, and perhaps different from, that associated with Antarctic meltwater. Which one might elicit a greater climate response, and what mechanisms are involved? To explore these questions, we apply “Climate Response Functions (CRFs)” to guide a series of meltwater perturbation experiments using a fully-coupled climate model. In both hemispheres, meltwater drives atmospheric cooling, sea-ice expansion, and strengthened Hadley and Ferrel cells. Greenland meltwater induces a slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and a cooling of the subsurface ocean in the northern high-latitudes. Antarctic meltwater, instead, induces a slowdown of the Antarctic Bottom Water formation and a warming of the subsurface ocean around Antarctica. For melt-rates up to 2000 Gt yr −1 , the climate response is rather linear. However, as melt-rates increase to 5000 Gt yr −1 , the climate response becomes non-linear. Due to a collapsed AMOC, the climate response is super-linear at high Greenland melt-rates. Instead, the climate response is sub-linear at high Antarctic melt-rates, due to the halting of the northward expansion of Antarctic sea ice by warm surface waters. Finally, in the linear limit, we use CRFs and linear convolution theory to make projections of important climate parameters in response to meltwater scenarios, which suggest that Antarctic meltwater will become a major driver of climate change, dominating that of Greenland meltwater, as the current century proceeds.
Greenland ice sheet↗
AWARE: The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment
The U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE) performed comprehensive meteorological and aerosol measurements and ground-based atmospheric remote sensing at two Antarctic stations using the most advanced instrumentation available. A suite of cloud research radars, lidars, spectral and broadband radiometers, aerosol chemical and microphysical sampling equipment, and meteorological instrumentation was deployed at McMurdo Station on Ross Island from December 2015 through December 2016. A smaller suite of radiometers and meteorological equipment, including radiosondes optimized for surface energy budget measurement, was deployed on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet between 4 December 2015 and 17 January 2016. AWARE provided Antarctic atmospheric data comparable to several well-instrumented high Arctic sites that have operated for many years and that reveal numerous contrasts with the Arctic in aerosol and cloud microphysical properties. These include persistent differences in liquid cloud occurrence, cloud height, and cloud thickness. Antarctic aerosol properties are also quite different from the Arctic in both seasonal cycle and composition, due to the continent’s isolation from lower latitudes by Southern Ocean storm tracks. Antarctic aerosol number and mass concentrations are not only non-negligible but perhaps play a more important role than previously recognized because of the higher sensitivities of clouds at the very low concentrations caused by the large-scale dynamical isolation. Antarctic aerosol chemical composition, particularly organic components, has implications for local cloud microphysics. The AWARE dataset, fully available online in the ARM Program data archive, offers numerous case studies for unique and rigorous evaluation of mixed-phase cloud parameterization in climate models.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
A symbiotic bacterium of Antarctic fish reveals environmental adaptability mechanisms and biosynthetic potential towards antibacterial and cytotoxic activities
Antarctic microbes are important agents for evolutionary adaptation and natural resource of bioactive compounds, harboring the particular metabolic pathways to biosynthesize natural products. However, not much is known on symbiotic microbiomes of fish in the Antarctic zone. In the present study, the culture method and whole-genome sequencing were performed. Natural product analyses were carried out to determine the biosynthetic potential. We report the isolation and identification of a symbiotic bacterium Serratia myotis L7-1, that is highly adaptive and resides within Antarctic fish, Trematomus bernacchii . As revealed by genomic analyses, Antarctic strain S. myotis L7-1 possesses carbohydrate-active enzymes (CAZymes), biosynthetic gene clusters (BGCs), stress response genes, antibiotic resistant genes (ARGs), and a complete type IV secretion system which could facilitate competition and colonization in the extreme Antarctic environment. The identification of microbiome gene clusters indicates the biosynthetic potential of bioactive compounds. Based on bioactivity-guided fractionation, serranticin was purified and identified as the bioactive compound, showing significant antibacterial and antitumor activity. The serranticin gene cluster was identified and located on the chrome. Furthermore, the multidrug resistance and strong bacterial antagonism contribute competitive advantages in ecological niches. Our results highlight the existence of a symbiotic bacterium in Antarctic fish largely represented by bioactive natural products and the adaptability to survive in the fish living in Antarctic oceans.
Xiao, Yu↗
Ice in Channels and Ice-Rock Mixtures in Valleys on Mars: Did They Slide on Deformable Rubble Like Antarctic Ice Streams?
Recent studies of ice streams in Antarctica reveal a mechanism of basal motion that may apply to channels and valleys on Mars. The mechanism is sliding of the ice on deformable water-saturated till under high pore pressures. It has been suggested by Lucchitta that ice was present in outflow channels on Mars and gave them their distinctive morphology. This ice may have slid like Antarctic ice streams but on rubbly weathering products rather than till. However, to generate water under high pore pressures, elevated heatflow is needed to melt the base of the ice. Either volcanism or higher heatflow more than 2 b.y. ago could have raised the basal temperature. Regarding valley networks, higher heatflow 3 b.y. ago could have allowed sliding of ice-saturated overburden at a few hundred meters depth. If the original, pristine valleys were somewhat deeper than they are now, they could have formed by the same mechanism. Recent sounding of the seafloor in front of the Ross Ice Shelf in Antarctica reveals large persistent patterns of longitudinal megaflutes and drumlinoid forms, which bear remarkable resemblance to longitudinal grooves and highly elongated streamlined islands found on the floors of martian outflow channels. The flutes are interpreted to have formed at the base of ice streams during the last glacial advance. Additional similarities of Antarctic ice streams with martian outflow channels are apparent. Antarctic ice streams are 30 to 80 km wide and hundreds of kilometers long. Martian outflow channels have similar dimensions. Ice stream beds are below sea level. Carr determined that most common floor elevations of martian outflow channels lie below martian datum, which may have been close to or below past martian sea levels. The Antarctic ice stream bed gradient is flat and locally may go uphill, and surface slopes are exceptionally. Martian channels also have floor gradients that are shallow or go uphill locally and have low surface gradients. The depth to the bed in ice streams is 1 to 1.5 km. At bankful stage, the depth of the fluid in outflow channels was 1 to 2 km, according to the height of bordering scarps. The similarity between Antarctic ice streams and martian outflow channels suggests that ice may have flowed through and shaped the outflow channels, and that perhaps the mechanism of motion of Antarctic ice streams also operated in outflow channels. In addition, sliding on deformable rubble may explain the formation of small valley networks. The large Siple Coast Antarctic ice streams are thought to slide over longitudinally grooved, deforming till, where much of the movement is within the till. The till is saturated with water at high pore pressures that nearly supports all of the weight of the ice. The small differential between overburden pressure and pore pressure at the bed is more important than the volume of water, but water needs to be supplied to the till interface. For pore pressures to remain high, the ice streams have to act as a seal that blocks the flow of water through them, and the rock underneath has to be of low permeability to prevent the water from draining away.
Lucchitta, B. K.↗
Trends in Antarctic Surface Temperatures and Ice Extent from Satellite and Surface Observations
Surface air temperatures observed from stations around Antarctica have indicated predominantly positive trends which are as high as 0.4K per decade along the Antarctic Peninsula. Since the average air temperature during summer in the West Antarctic region is about -6 K, and since most of the stations are near coastal regions, it is important to know whether such trends are due to a local or large scale phenomenon. We analyzed about 19 years of infrared satellite data (1979-1997) to obtain a spatially detailed study of the variability of surface temperatures over the entire Antarctic region. We also analyzed potential impact of temperature changes over the sea ice cover using co-registered and nearly coincident microwave satellite data. The surface temperatures inferred from infrared data are shown to agree well with those observed from the limited number of Antarctic station data with a correlation coefficient of 0.98 and a standard deviation of less than 3K. The 19-year temperature data set shows positive trends of 0.12, 0.68, and 0.41 C per decade in ocean, sea ice and ice sheet surfaces, respectively. The sensitivity of the trend to record length was studied, using long term station data sets, and the results show that the trends start to stabilize at around 2 decades which is about the record length of satellite data. However, interannual fluctuations of the temperatures are large, especially in the ice sheets, and the 95% confidence level for the trends ranges from 0.12 to 1.22 for sea ice and from -0.74 to 1.55 C per decade for the ice sheet. In the sea ice regions, the position of the ice edge in winter with respect to the northernmost position of sea ice during the study period is also shown to be influenced by alternating warm and cold anomalies around the continent. This pattern is similar to that suggested by the presence of the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave (ACW) but the wavenumber appears to be predominantly mode 3 (instead of reported mode 2) for the Antarctic region. Unexpectedly, trends in the sea ice extent are found to be positive in most Antarctic sectors during the same period with the exception of the Bellingshausen and Amundsen Seas region.
Comisc, J. C.↗
Improving Our Understanding of Antarctic Sea Ice with NASA's Operation IceBridge and the Upcoming ICESat-2 Mission
Antarctic sea ice is a crucial component of the global climate system. Rapid sea ice production regimes around Antarctica feed the lower branch of the Southern Ocean overturning circulation through intense brine rejection and the formation of Antarctic Bottom Water (e.g., Orsi et al. 1999; Jacobs 2004), while the northward transport and subsequent melt of Antarctic sea ice drives the upper branch of the overturning circulation through freshwater input (Abernathy et al. 2016). Wind-driven trends in Antarctic sea ice (Holland Kwok 2012) have likely increased the transport of freshwater away from the Antarctic coastline, significantly altering the salinity distribution of the Southern Ocean (Haumann et al. 2016). Conversely, weaker sea ice production and the lack of shelf water formation over the Amundsen and Bellingshausen shelf seas promote intrusion of warm Circumpolar Deep Water onto the continental shelf and the ocean-driven melting of several ice shelves fringing the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (e.g., Jacobs et al. 2011; Pritchard et al. 2012; Dutrieux et al. 2014). Sea ice conditions around Antarctica are also increasingly considered an important factor impacting local atmospheric conditions and the surface melting of Antarctic ice shelves (e.g., Scambos et al. 2017). Sea ice formation around Antarctica is responsive to the strong regional variability in atmospheric forcing present around Antarctica, driving this bimodal variability in the behavior and properties of the underlying shelf seas (e.g., Petty et al. 2012; Petty et al. 2014).
Arctic↗
AWARE: The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment
The US Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE) performed comprehensive meteorological and aerosol measurements, and ground-based atmospheric remote sensing at two Antarctic stations using the most advanced instrumentation available. A suite of cloud research radars, lidars, spectral and broadband radiometers, aerosol chemical and microphysical sampling equipment, and meteorological instrumentation was deployed at McMurdo Station on Ross Island from December 2015 through December 2016. A smaller suite of radiometers and meteorological equipment including radiosondes, optimized for surface energy budget measurement, was deployed on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet between 4 December 2015 and 17 January 2016. AWARE provided Antarctic atmospheric data comparable to several well-instrumented high Arctic sites that have operated for many years and that reveal numerous contrasts with the Arctic in aerosol and cloud microphysical properties. These include persistent differences in liquid cloud occurrence, cloud height and cloud thickness. Antarctic aerosol properties are also quite different from the Arctic in both seasonal cycle and composition, due to the continent’s isolation from lower latitudes by Southern Ocean storm tracks. Antarctic aerosol number and mass concentrations are not only non-negligible but perhaps play a more important role than previously recognized because of the higher sensitivities of clouds at the very low concentrations caused by the large-scale dynamical isolation. Antarctic aerosol chemical composition, particularly organic components, has implications for local cloud microphysics. The AWARE data set, fully available online in the ARM Program data archive, offers numerous case studies for unique and rigorous evaluation of mixed-phase cloud parameterization in climate models.
Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM)↗
Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Can Reduce Risks to Antarctic Ice Loss Depending on Injection Location and Amount
Owing to increasing greenhouse gas emissions, the Antarctic Ice Sheet is vulnerable to rapid ice loss in the upcoming decades and centuries. Here this study examines the effectiveness of using stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) that minimizes global mean temperature (GMT) change to slow projected 21st century Antarctic ice loss. We simulate 11 different SAI cases which vary by the latitudinal location(s) and the amount(s) of the injection(s) to examine the climatic response near Antarctica in each case as compared to the reference climate at the turn of the last century. We demonstrate that injecting at a single latitude in the northern hemisphere or at the Equator increases Antarctic shelf ocean temperatures pertinent to ice shelf basal melt, while injecting only in the southern hemisphere minimizes this temperature change. We use these results to analyze the results of more complex multi-latitude injection strategies that maintain GMT at or below 1.5°C above the pre-industrial. All these multi-latitude cases will slow Antarctic ice loss relative to the mid-to-late 21st century SSP2-4.5 emissions pathway. Yet, to avoid a GMT threshold estimated by previous studies pertaining to rapid West Antarctic ice loss (1.5°C above the pre-industrial GMT, though large uncertainty), our study suggests SAI would need to cool about 1.0°C below this threshold and predominately inject at low southern hemisphere latitudes (~15°S - 30°S). These results highlight the complexity of factors impacting the Antarctic response to SAI and the critical role of the injection strategy in preventing future ice loss.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗