Ensuring CO2 Storage and Groundwater Protection through Water Monitoring: Applying Geochemical and Statistical Tools
Conference on Innovations in Climate Resilience Conference, Virtual, March 29-30, 2022
Gardiner, James↗
SEARCH · Search NASA
Results for “Applied Statistics”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.
Quantum and Structural Effects Captured via a Statistical Method: the SACM Applied to HCN and HNC Colliding with CO
A statistical approach to treating energy transfer in low temperature scattering was found to capture some quantum effects.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
(U) A General-Purpose Code for Correlated Sampling Using Batch Statistics with MCNP6 for Fixed-Source Problems
Correlated sampling can be used to reduce the uncertainty of a difference of tallies by taking advantage of the negative covariance term in the sandwich formula. Booth first showed how correlated sampling can be applied with batch statistics using MCNP’s tally fluctuation chart (TFC) to reduce the uncertainty of a difference of tallies in fixed-source problems. Booth presented a problem in which a 1273% uncertainty in a difference was reduced to 8% by accounting for correlations. Researchers He and Su recently studied correlated sampling using the TFC in MCNP version 5. They determined that the code did not print enough digits in the TFC tally means for accurate batch statistics in some cases. After modifying the source code, they concluded that “correlated sampling can yield a standard deviation of about one magnitude smaller than that predicted by the direct, un-correlated simulation when the changes in system response are small (say about 1%), which is equivalent to saving in CPU time by a factor of 100. Such saving [sic] becomes less significant as the change in system response becomes larger.” He and Su provided the formulas needed to apply batch statistics to compute the correlated uncertainty of a difference of tallies. In this report, we follow up on their work by providing the formulas needed to apply batch statistics to compute the correlated uncertainty of a ratio of tallies and of a difference of two tallies divided by a third tally. We extend these formulas to differences and ratios of ratios. These formulas are applied to reduce the uncertainty associated with calculating a relative sensitivity. He and Su did not investigate the accuracy of their correlated sampling uncertainty estimates. We use their test problems and evaluate the accuracy of the uncertainty estimates by comparing with results obtained from random sampling, and, in simple cases, with theoretical values of the “exact” uncertainties. We find that the uncertainties obtained from batch statistics are accurate as long as at least 100 batches are used. We present a new computer code, COSUBS (COrrelated Sampling Using Batch Statistics), that reads MCNP6 TFCs and applies correlated sampling using batch statistics for the tally combinations that the user specifies. COSUBS is a very general tool that compares all TFCs for a base case and one or two perturbed cases. It computes uncertainties for ratios if given only a base case. This report is organized as follows. The equations to apply batch statistics to the difference of random tallies are reviewed in Sec. II. Section III presents the equations for applying batch statistics to a ratio of random tallies; this is useful for computing relative sensitivities using a one-sided finite difference and the relative sensitivity using the differential operator method. Section IV presents the equations for applying batch statistics to a difference of two random tallies divided by a third; this is useful for computing a relative sensitivities using a central difference. Section V presents the equations for applying batch statistics to a difference of two ratios with four random tallies. Section VI presents the equations for applying batch statistics to a one-sided finite difference estimate of the relative sensitivity of a ratio (this uses four random tallies). Section VII presents the equations for applying batch statistics to a central difference estimate of the relative sensitivity of a ratio (this uses six random tallies). Section VIII presents the equations for applying batch statistics to a sum of random tallies. Section IX discusses how to apply batch statistics using MCNP6. Section X presents COSUBS, describing its command-line options and logic. Sections XI through XVI present numerical results for various test problems. Section XVII is a summary and conclusions. Appendix A derives the theoretical Monte Carlo tally variance given certain assumptions; these variances are used to verify the batch statistics for some of the problems. Appendix B lists the MCNP6 input for the unperturbed example problem. Appendix C presents modifications made to MCNP6.3 to support this work.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Evaluation of Applied Stress on Atmospheric Corrosion and Pitting Characteristics in 304L Stainless Steel
For this study, the effects of applied stress, ranging from tensile to compressive, on the atmospheric pitting corrosion behavior of 304L stainless steel (SS304L) were analyzed through accelerated atmospheric laboratory exposures and microelectrochemical cell analysis. After exposing the lateral surface of a SS304L four-point bend specimen to artificial seawater at 50°C and 35% relative humidity for 50 d, pitting characteristics were determined using optical profilometry and scanning electron microscopy. The SS304L microstructure was analyzed using electron backscatter diffraction. Additionally, localized electrochemical measurements were performed on a similar, unexposed, SS304L four-point bend bar to determine the effects of applied stress on corrosion susceptibility. Under the applied loads and the environment tested, the observed pitting characteristics showed no correlation with the applied stress (from 250 MPa to -250 MPa). Pitting depth, surface area, roundness, and distribution were found to be independent of location on the sample or applied stress. The lack of correlation between pitting statistics and applied stress was more likely due to the aggressive exposure environment, with a sea salt loading of 4 g/m 2 chloride. The pitting characteristics observed were instead governed by the available cathode current and salt distribution, which are a function of sea salt loading, as well as pre-existing underlying microstructure. In microelectrochemical cell experiments performed in Cl - environments comparable to the atmospheric exposure and in environments containing orders of magnitude lower Cl - concentrations, effects of the applied stress on corrosion susceptibility were only apparent in open-circuit potential in low Cl - concentration solutions. Cl - concentration governed the current density and transpassive dissolution potential.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Applying Geochemical Signals and Statistical Tools to Ensure CO2 Storage through Water Monitoring
2022 Carbon Management Project Review Meeting, Pittsburgh, PA, August 15-19, 2022
Xiong, Wei↗
Device and methods for determination of molecular weight distributions of polymers and distributions of other polymer properties without physical separation
Devices and methods for determining the cumulative distribution of a polymer property in a reactor without physical separation of reaction subcomponents. The device includes a means of measuring an instantaneous property of the polymers being produced in a reaction vessel a plurality of times during a polymerization reaction as well as a means of determining the corresponding change in polymer concentration in the reaction vessel between measurements of the instantaneous polymer property The device also includes a means of computing a statistical distribution appropriate to the polymer characteristic and applying the statistical distribution to a recently measured instantaneous value of the polymer property so as to have an instantaneous distribution of the polymer property and a means of adding together the instantaneous distributions of the polymer property in order to obtain the cumulative distribution of the polymer property in the reactor.
Reed, Wayne Frederick↗
Device and methods for determination of molecular weight distributions of polymers and distributions of other polymer properties without physical separation
Devices and methods for determining the cumulative distribution of a polymer property in a reactor without physical separation of reaction subcomponents. The device includes a means of measuring an instantaneous property of the polymers being produced in a reaction vessel a plurality of times during a polymerization reaction as well as a means of determining the corresponding change in polymer concentration in the reaction vessel between measurements of the instantaneous polymer property. The device also includes a means of computing a statistical distribution appropriate to the polymer characteristic and applying the statistical distribution to a recently measured instantaneous value of the polymer property so as to have an instantaneous distribution of the polymer property and a means of adding together the instantaneous distributions of the polymer property in order to obtain the cumulative distribution of the polymer property in the reactor.
Reed, Wayne Frederick↗
Markov Chain Monte Carlo Predictions of Neutron-rich Lanthanide Properties as a Probe of r -process Dynamics
Lanthanide element signatures are key to understanding many astrophysical observables, from merger kilonova light curves to stellar and solar abundances. To learn about the lanthanide element synthesis that enriched our solar system, we apply the statistical method of Markov Chain Monte Carlo to examine the nuclear masses capable of forming the r-process rare-earth abundance peak. We describe the physical constraints we implement with this statistical approach and demonstrate the use of the parallel chains method to explore the multidimensional parameter space. We apply our procedure to three moderately neutron-rich astrophysical outflows with distinct types of r-process dynamics. We show that the mass solutions found are dependent on outflow conditions and are related to the r-process path. We describe in detail the mechanism behind peak formation in each case. We then compare our mass predictions for neutron-rich neodymium and samarium isotopes to the latest experimental data from the CPT at CARIBU. Here, we find our mass predictions given outflows that undergo an extended (n,γ)⇌(γ,n) equilibrium to be those most compatible with both observational solar abundances and neutron-rich mass measurements.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Feasibility of Correlation-Aware Inference and Universal Precision Scaling in Bonse–Hart Ultra-Small-Angle Neutron Scattering
Bonse–Hart ultra-small-angle neutron scattering (USANS) provides access to micrometre-scale structure, but useful measurements often require long counting times. In this work, we test whether the expected smoothness of the scattering profile can be exploited to improve data quality at lower counting statistics. We apply a Gaussian-process-based method to Bonse–Hart USANS data and evaluate its performance on pseudo-measurements generated from high-statistics experiments under Poisson statistics. This provides a stringent test of how well the underlying I(Q) profile can be reconstructed when the available counts are substantially reduced. We further show that, in the counting-limited regime, the reconstruction error follows a universal scaling behaviour that differs from the usual independent-counting expectation. At higher counts, the improvement crosses over to a resolution-limited regime set by analyser-angle discretization and rocking-curve width. These results clarify when correlation-aware inference is useful in USANS and provide a practical basis for improving measurement efficiency and beam-time usage.
Tung, Chi-Huan [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000221972074)↗
Best practices in NMR metabolomics: Current state
A literature survey was conducted to identify current practices used by NMR metabolomics investigators when conducting and reporting their metabolomics studies. A total of 463 papers from 2020 and 80 papers from 2010 were selected from PubMed and were manually analyzed by a team of investigators to assess the extent and completeness of the experimental procedures and protocols reported. A significant number of the papers did not report on essential experimental details, incompletely stated which statistical methods were used, improperly applied supervised multivariate statistical analyses, or lacked validation of statistical models. A large diversity of protocols and software were identified, which suggests a lack of consensus and a relatively limited use of commonly agreed upon standards for conducting and reporting NMR metabolomics studies. In conclusion, the overall intent of the survey is to inform and encourage the NMR metabolomics community to develop and adopt best-practices for the field.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Data-driven design of molecular nanomagnets
Three decades of research in molecular nanomagnets have raised their magnetic memories from liquid helium to liquid nitrogen temperature thanks to a wise choice of the magnetic ion and coordination environment. Still, serendipity and chemical intuition played a main role. In order to establish a powerful framework for statistically driven chemical design, here we collected chemical and physical data for lanthanide-based nanomagnets, catalogued over 1400 published experiments, developed an interactive dashboard (SIMDAVIS) to visualise the dataset, and applied inferential statistical analysis. Our analysis shows that the Arrhenius energy barrier correlates unexpectedly well with the magnetic memory. Furthermore, as both Orbach and Raman processes can be affected by vibronic coupling, chemical design of the coordination scheme may be used to reduce the relaxation rates. Indeed, only bis-phthalocyaninato sandwiches and metallocenes, with rigid ligands, consistently present magnetic memory up to high temperature. Analysing magnetostructural correlations, we offer promising strategies for improvement, in particular for the preparation of pentagonal bipyramids, where even softer complexes are protected against molecular vibrations.
74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
Future Climate Projections for South Florida: Improving the Accuracy of Air Temperature and Precipitation Extremes With a Hybrid Statistical Bias Correction Technique
Projecting future climate variables is essential for comprehending the potential impacts on hydroclimatic hazards like floods and droughts. Evaluating these impacts is challenging due to the coarse spatial resolution of global climate models (GCMs); therefore, bias correction is widely used. Here, we applied two statistical methods—standard empirical quantile mapping (EQM) and a hybrid approach, EQM with linear correction (EQM-LIN)—to bias correct precipitation and air temperature simulated by nine GCMs. We used historical observations from 20 weather stations across South Florida to project future climate under three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Compared to the EQM, the hybrid EQM-LIN method improved R 2 of daily quantiles by up to 30% over the historical period and improved MAE up to 70% in months that contain most extreme values. Projected extreme precipitation at the weather stations showed that, compared to the EQM-LIN, the EQM method underestimates the high quantiles by up to 26% in SSP585. The projected changes in annual maximum precipitation from historical period (1985–2014) to near future (2040–2069) and far future (2070–2100) were between 2% and 16% across the study area. Projected future precipitation suggested a slight decrease during summer but an increase in fall. This, along with rising summer temperatures, suggested that South Florida can experience rapid oscillations from warmer summers and increased flooding in fall under future climate. Additionally, our comparative analyses with globally and nationally downscaled studies showed that such coarse scale studies do not represent the climatic extremes well, particularly for high quantile precipitation.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Equilibrium solute segregation to matrix- θ' precipitate interfaces in Al-Cu alloys from first principles
Particular combinations of solute atoms segregated to the interface of the Al and θ ' - Al 2 Cu in Al-Cu alloys can help stabilize θ ' precipitates at high temperatures. Stabilization of such precipitates is determined by a combination of thermodynamics (including driving forces for coarsening and transformation and solute segregation tendencies) and kinetic effects (including solute diffusion and interfacial mobility in the presence of interfacial solute segregation). For some alloys such as recent Al-Cu-based alloys, multiple solutes segregate in significant quantities to interfaces, and solute-solute interactions at the interface are important, with multiple types of solutes competing for similar interfacial sites. To treat this situation, we develop and apply a statistical mechanics approach to calculate the temperature-dependent equilibrium solute atoms distribution near the coherent and semicoherent interfaces between the Al matrix and the θ ' - Al 2 Cu precipitates. The developed approach is applied to the investigation of Si, Mn, and Zr segregation at the interface, as particular combinations of these elements affect the thermal stability of the θ ' precipitates. We demonstrate that because Si and Mn atoms segregate on the same semicoherent interface, the presence of Si reduces the concentration of Mn solutes at the interface. Si atoms preferably occupy the first layer of the interface and compete with Mn atoms for one type of particular sites in the layer. Mn atoms preferably occupy the second layer of the semicoherent interface, and the Mn-Mn interaction plays an important role in their distribution. Zr atoms mostly segregate on one of the two nonequivalent sites of the second layer of the coherent interface. Due to symmetry properties of the coherent interface, the calculations show that the segregation Zr of atoms to this interface will likely lead to the formation of L 1 2 ordered Al 3 Zr layer.
75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
Leveraging Afterglow in Scintillation-based x-ray detectors for spacetime-resolved computed tomography for accelerated acquisition and high-speed event capture
Afterglow in x-ray imaging for high-speed radiography is a constraint that limits imaging systems to low-light/fast decay screens which create poor data. Current approaches focus purely on using low-light yield screens with fast decay to avoid multiple exposure pileup due to afterglow. The goal of this work is to develop a statistical estimation approach to leverage afterglow to improve image quality thus allowing for higher quality imaging components to be used. This will allow for bright screens will slow decay to be used, and then a post-processing step applies the statistical estimation to separate each frame with superior signal compared to low-light/fast decay screens.
46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
Information and Statistics in Nuclear Experiment and Theory (ISNET)
As with all empirical sciences, nuclear physics operates in the virtuous cycle of the scientific method: observations inspire theoretical models; models lead to new predictions; predictions are tested in experiments; experiments lead to new observations; and so on. Evaluating what we are inferring, and how certain we are of it, is key to this process. These requirements, and a general interest in applying novel statistical, mathematical, and computational techniques, led to the formation of a dedicated research community entitled “Information and Statistics in Nuclear Experiment and Theory (ISNET)” (https://isnet-series.github.io/), which now includes more than 300 members. While the community’s interests lean toward nuclear theory, the unifying theme for this group is the inference of knowledge from data.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
Statistical Hauser-Feshbach model calculation for (α, n) reaction cross section and discrete level population
We calculate the α-particle induced reactions on 17,18 O, 19 F, and 23 Na, in the energy range 0 ≤ E α ≤ 10 MeV, with a particular attention to the branching ratios of populated discrete levels in the (α,n) channels. Since there are too many open channels to employ the R-matrix theory, we apply the statistical Hauser-Feshbach model to calculate these reaction cross sections and branching ratios. The branching ratio is defined as b n = $\frac{σ_n}{Σ_iσ_i + σ_c}$ , where σ n is the n-th level production cross section after the neutron emission, and σ c is the production of the continuum state. In the cases of our target nuclei and the energy range of interest, the residual nuclei of the neutron emission channel are always in their discrete states, so that σ c can be negligible.
72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
Reconstruction of effective potential from statistical analysis of dynamic trajectories
The broad incorporation of microscopic methods is yielding a wealth of information on the atomic and mesoscale dynamics of individual atoms, molecules, and particles on surfaces and in open volumes. Analysis of such data necessitates statistical frameworks to convert observed dynamic behaviors to effective properties of materials. Here, we develop a method for the stochastic reconstruction of effective local potentials solely from observed structural data collected from molecular dynamics simulations (i.e., data analogous to those obtained via atomically resolved microscopies). Using the silicon vacancy defect in graphene as a model, we apply the statistical framework presented herein to reconstruct the free energy landscape from the calculated atomic displacements. Evidence of consistency between the reconstructed local potential and the trajectory data from which it was produced is presented, along with a quantitative assessment of the uncertainty in the inferred parameters.
74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
Divide and conquer: using RhizoVision Explorer to aggregate data from multiple root scans using image concatenation and statistical methods
Roots are important in agricultural and natural systems for determining plant productivity and soil carbon inputs. Sometimes, the amount of roots in a sample is too much to fit into a single scanned image, so the sample is divided among several scans, and there is no standard method to aggregate the data. Here, we describe and validate two methods for standardizing measurements across multiple scans: image concatenation and statistical aggregation. We developed a Python script that identifies which images belong to the same sample and returns a single, larger concatenated image. These concatenated images and the original images were processed with RhizoVision Explorer, a free and open-source software. An R script was developed, which identifies rows of data belonging to the same sample and applies correct statistical methods to return a single data row for each sample. These two methods were compared using example images from switchgrass, poplar, and various tree and ericaceous shrub species from a northern peatland and the Arctic. Most root measurements were nearly identical between the two methods except median diameter, which cannot be accurately computed by statistical aggregation. We believe the availability of these methods will be useful to the root biology community.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗