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Results for “Approximate Bayesian inference”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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21 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2002

Orbit Determination Support for the Microwave Anisotropy Probe (MAP)

The Microwave Anisotropy Probe (MAP) is a Medium Class Explorers (MIDEX) mission produced in partnership between Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) and Princeton University. The main science objective of the MAP mission is to produce an accurate full-sky map of the cosmic microwave background temperature fluctuations anisotropy. MAP was launched from the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station Complex 17 aboard a Delta II 7425-10 expendable launch vehicle at exactly 19:46:46.183 UTC on June 30, 2001. The spacecraft received a nominal direct insertion by the Delta into a 185 km circular orbit. MAP was then maneuvered into a sequence of phasing loops designed to set up a lunar swingby (gravity-assisted acceleration) of the spacecraft onto a transfer trajectory to a Lissajous orbit about the Earth-Sun L2 point. The mission duration is approximately 27 months with 3 to 4 months of transfer time to the final mission orbit about L2. The MAP transfer orbit consisted of 3.5 phasing loops: the first loop has a 7-day period, the second and third loops have a 9-day period, and the last half loop has a 4-day period as illustrated in Figure 1, which also indicates the placement of maneuvers. A Pfinal correction maneuver was performed 18 hours after the last perigee to more closely achieve the targeted lissajous orbit. The lunar encounter or swingby took place approximately 30 days after launch. After the lunar encounter, the spacecraft will cruise for approximately 120 days before it arrives at L2. A Mid-Course Correction (MCC) maneuver was executed seven days after the swingby to further refine the trajectory. Once the MAP satellite is injected into the L2 Lissajous orbit, it will perform occasional stationkeeping maneuvers to maintain the Lissajous orbit for a minimum of two years (and a goal of four years). Because of its complex orbital characteristics, the mission provided a unique challenge to orbit determination (OD) support in many orbital regimes. Extensive trajectory error covariance analysis was performed to predict ephemeris accuracy for the OD process using a Bayesian least-squares technique. The orbit determination error analysis is essential for maneuver planning and maneuver recovery study. Several tracking scenarios were investigated for each phase of the mission. This paper provides a summary of the premission trajectory covariance error analysis, as well as actual real-time OD results. The use and impact of the various tracking stations, systems, and measurements will be discussed. Details of the operational OD support and the inferred OD accuracy will be presented, and the results will be compared to the premission covariance analysis, In addition, there will be a discussion of the challenges presented to OD support including delta-Vs at apogee as well as perigee, and effects due to spacecraft attitude mode, in light of their implications to the OD accuracy and covariance analysis.

Truong, Son H.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Analysis of simultaneous aerosol and ocean glint retrieval using multi-angle observations

Since early 2000, NASA's Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) instrument has been performing remote sensing retrievals of aerosol optical properties from the polar-orbiting Terra spacecraft. A noteworthy aspect of MISR observations over the ocean is that, for much of the Earth, some of the multi-angle views have contributions from solar reflection by the ocean surface (glint, or glitter), while others do not. Aerosol retrieval algorithms often discard these glint-influenced observations because they can overwhelm the signal and are difficult to predict without knowledge of the (wind-speed-driven) ocean surface roughness. However, theoretical studies have shown that multi-angle observations of a location at geometries with and without reflected sun glint can be a rich source of information, sufficient to support simultaneous retrieval of both the aerosol state and the wind speed at the ocean surface. We are in the early stages of creating such an algorithm. In this paper, we describe our assessment of the appropriate level of parameterization for simultaneous aerosol and ocean surface property retrievals using sun glint. For this purpose, we use generalized nonlinear retrieval analysis (GENRA), an information content assessment (ICA) technique employing Bayesian inference, and simulations from the Ahmad–Fraser iterative radiative transfer code. We find that four parameters are suitable: aerosol optical depth (τ), particle size distribution (expressed as the fine mode fraction f of small particles in a bimodal size distribution), surface wind speed (w), and relative humidity (r, to define the aerosol water content and complex refractive index). None of these parameters define ocean optical properties, as we found that the aerosol state could be retrieved with the nine MISR near-infrared views alone, where the ocean body is strongly absorbing in the open ocean. We also found that retrieval capability varies with observation geometry and that as τ increases so does the ability to determine aerosol intensive optical properties (r and f, while it decreases for w). Increases in w decrease the ability to determine the true value of that parameter but have minimal impact on retrieval of aerosol properties. We explored the benefit of excluding the two most extreme MISR view angles for which radiative transfer with the plane-parallel approximation is less certain, but we found no advantage in doing so. Finally, the impact of treating wind speed as a scalar parameter, rather than as a two-parameter directional wind, was tested. While the simpler scalar model does contribute to overall aerosol uncertainty, it is not sufficiently large to justify the addition of another dimension to parameter space. An algorithm designed upon these principles is in development. It will be used to perform an atmospheric correction with MISR for coincident ocean color (OC) observations by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument, also on the NASA Terra spacecraft. Unlike MISR, MODIS is a single-view-angle instrument, but it has a more complete set of spectral channels ideal for determination of optical ocean properties. The atmospheric correction of MODIS OC data can therefore benefit from MISR aerosol retrievals. Furthermore, higher-spatial-resolution data from coincident MISR observations may also improve glint screening.

Kirk Knobelspiesse↗
NASA NTRS2019

A NICER view of PSR J0030+0541: Millisecond Pulsar Parameter Estimation

We report on Bayesian parameter estimation of the mass and equatorial radius of the millisecond pulsar PSRJ0030+0451, conditional on pulse-profile modeling of Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer X-ray spectral timing event data. We perform relativistic ray-tracing of thermal emission from hot regions of the pulsar’s surface. We assume two distinct hot regions based on two clear pulsed components in the phase-folded pulse-profile data; we explore a number of forms (morphologies and topologies) for each hot region, inferring their parameters in addition to the stellar mass and radius. For the family of models considered, the evidence (prior predictive probability of the data) strongly favors a model that permits both hot regions to be located in the same rotational hemisphere. Models wherein both hot regions are assumed to be simply connected circular single-temperature spots, in particular those where the spots are assumed to be reflection-symmetric with respect to the stellar origin, are strongly disfavored. For the inferred configuration, one hot region subtends an angular extent of only a few degrees (in spherical coordinates with origin at the stellar center) and we are insensitive to other structural details; the second hot region is far more azimuthally extended in the form of a narrow arc, thus requiring a larger number of parameters to describe. The inferred mass M and equatorial radius Req are, respectively, -1.34+ M 0.16 0.15 and-12.71+ km 1.19 1.14 , while the compactness = -GM R c 0.156+ eq 2 0.010 0.008 is more tightly constrained; the credible interval bounds reported here are approximately the 16% and 84% quantiles in marginal posterior mass.

T E Riley↗