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NASA NTRS2012

Comparison of Controller and Flight Deck Algorithm Performance During Interval Management with Dynamic Arrival Trees (STARS)

Managing the interval between arrival aircraft is a major part of the en route and TRACON controller s job. In an effort to reduce controller workload and low altitude vectoring, algorithms have been developed to allow pilots to take responsibility for, achieve and maintain proper spacing. Additionally, algorithms have been developed to create dynamic weather-free arrival routes in the presence of convective weather. In a recent study we examined an algorithm to handle dynamic re-routing in the presence of convective weather and two distinct spacing algorithms. The spacing algorithms originated from different core algorithms; both were enhanced with trajectory intent data for the study. These two algorithms were used simultaneously in a human-in-the-loop (HITL) simulation where pilots performed weather-impacted arrival operations into Louisville International Airport while also performing interval management (IM) on some trials. The controllers retained responsibility for separation and for managing the en route airspace and some trials managing IM. The goal was a stress test of dynamic arrival algorithms with ground and airborne spacing concepts. The flight deck spacing algorithms or controller managed spacing not only had to be robust to the dynamic nature of aircraft re-routing around weather but also had to be compatible with two alternative algorithms for achieving the spacing goal. Flight deck interval management spacing in this simulation provided a clear reduction in controller workload relative to when controllers were responsible for spacing the aircraft. At the same time, spacing was much less variable with the flight deck automated spacing. Even though the approaches taken by the two spacing algorithms to achieve the interval management goals were slightly different they seem to be simpatico in achieving the interval management goal of 130 sec by the TRACON boundary.

Battiste, Vernol↗

NASA NTRS2007

Simulation of Terminal-Area Flight Management System Arrivals with Airborne Spacing

A simulation evaluated the feasibility and potential benefits of using decision support tools to support time-based airborne spacing and merging for aircraft arriving in the terminal area on charted Flight Management System (FMS) routes. Sixteen trials were conducted in each treatment combination of a 2X2 repeated-measures design. In trials 'with ground tools' air traffic controller participants managed traffic using sequencing and spacing tools. In trials 'with air tools' approximately seventy-five percent of aircraft assigned to the primary landing runway were equipped for airborne spacing, including flight simulators flown by commercial pilots. The results indicate that airborne spacing improves spacing accuracy and is feasible for FMS operations and mixed spacing equipage. Controllers and pilots can manage spacing clearances that contain two call signs without difficulty. For best effect, both decision support tools and spacing guidance should exhibit consistently predictable performance, and merging traffic flows should be well coordinated.

Callantine, Todd J.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Assessment of Delivery Accuracy in an Operational-Like Environment

In order to enable arrival management concepts and solutions in a Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) environment, ground-based sequencing and scheduling functions were developed to support metering operations in the National Airspace System. These sequencing and scheduling tools are designed to assist air traffic controllers in developing an overall arrival strategy, from enroute down to the terminal area boundary. NASA developed a ground system concept and protoype capability called Terminal Sequencing and Spacing (TSAS) to extend metering operations into the terminal area to the runway. To demonstrate the use of these scheduling and spacing tools in an operational-like environment, the FAA, NASA, and MITRE conducted an Operational Integration Assessment (OIA) of a prototype TSAS system at the FAA's William J. Hughes Technical Center (WJHTC). This paper presents an analysis of the arrival management strategies utilized and delivery accuracy achieved during the OIA. The analysis demonstrates how en route preconditioning, in various forms, and schedule disruptions impact delivery accuracy. As the simulation spanned both enroute and terminal airspace, the use of Ground Interval Management - Spacing (GIM-S) enroute speed advisories was investigated. Delivery accuracy was measured as the difference between the Scheduled Time of Arrival (STA) and the Actual Time of Arrival (ATA). The delivery accuracy was computed across all runs conducted during the OIA, which included deviations from nominal operations which are known to commonly occur in real operations, such as schedule changes and missed approaches. Overall, 83% of all flights were delivered into the terminal airspace within +/- 30 seconds of their STA and 94% of flights were delivered within +/- 60 seconds. The meter fix delivery accuracy standard deviation was found to be between 36 and 55 seconds across all arrival procedures. The data also showed when schedule disruptions were excluded, the percentage of aircraft delivered within +/- 30 seconds was between 85 and 90% across the various arrival procedures at the meter fix. This paper illustrates the ability to meet new delivery accuracy requirements in an operational-like environment using operational systems and NATCA controller participants, while also including common events that might cause disruptions to the schedule and overall system.

Air Traffic Scheduling↗

NASA NTRS2016

Separation Assurance and Scheduling Coordination in the Arrival Environment

Separation assurance (SA) automation has been proposed as either a ground-based or airborne paradigm. The arrival environment is complex because aircraft are being sequenced and spaced to the arrival fix. This paper examines the effect of the allocation of the SA and scheduling functions on the performance of the system. Two coordination configurations between an SA and an arrival management system are tested using both ground and airborne implementations. All configurations have a conflict detection and resolution (CD&R) system and either an integrated or separated scheduler. Performance metrics are presented for the ground and airborne systems based on arrival traffic headed to Dallas/ Fort Worth International airport. The total delay, time-spacing conformance, and schedule conformance are used to measure efficiency. The goal of the analysis is to use the metrics to identify performance differences between the configurations that are based on different function allocations. A surveillance range limitation of 100 nmi and a time delay for sharing updated trajectory intent of 30 seconds were implemented for the airborne system. Overall, these results indicate that the surveillance range and the sharing of trajectories and aircraft schedules are important factors in determining the efficiency of an airborne arrival management system. These parameters are not relevant to the ground-based system as modeled for this study because it has instantaneous access to all aircraft trajectories and intent. Creating a schedule external to the CD&R and the scheduling conformance system was seen to reduce total delays for the airborne system, and had a minor effect on the ground-based system. The effect of an external scheduler on other metrics was mixed.

function allocation↗

NASA NTRS1989

Design of automated system for management of arrival traffic

The design of an automated air traffic control system based on a hierarchy of advisory tools for controllers is described. Compatibility of the tools with the human controller, a key objective of the design, is achieved by a judicious selection of tasks to be automated and careful attention to the design of the controller system interface. The design comprises three interconnected subsystems referred to as the Traffic Management Advisor, the Descent Advisor, and the Final Approach Spacing Tool. Each of these subsystems provides a collection of tools for specific controller positions and tasks. The design of two of these tools, the Descent Advisor, which provides automation tools for managing descent traffic, and the Traffic Management Advisor, which generates optimum landing schedules is focused on. The algorithms, automation modes, and graphical interfaces incorporated in the design are described.

Erzberger, Heinz↗

NASA NTRS2011

Modeling Off-Nominal Recovery in NextGen Terminal-Area Operations

Robust schedule-based arrival management requires efficient recovery from off-nominal situations. This paper presents research on modeling off-nominal situations and plans for recovering from them using TRAC, a route/airspace design, fast-time simulation, and analysis tool for studying NextGen trajectory-based operations. The paper provides an overview of a schedule-based arrival-management concept and supporting controller tools, then describes TRAC implementations of methods for constructing off-nominal scenarios, generating trajectory options to meet scheduling constraints, and automatically producing recovery plans.

Callantine, Todd J.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Exploring Management of Arrival Spacing Using Route Extensions with Terminal Spacing Tools

Airports with shared runway operations between arrivals and departures can experience severe departure gridlock and delays during a heavy arrival push due to insufficient gaps in the arrival stream for aircraft to depart. The problem is accentuated in situations when a large gap in the arrival spacing has to be created at the last minute due to wake vortex separation requirements. At LaGuardia airport, wake vortex separation problems arise when a heavy jet, such as a B757, departing on Runway 31 needs additional spacing between arrivals on Runway 22. A standard solution for controllers in many airports in situations such as this is to extend the downwind leg of arrival aircraft to create extra space between the arrivals. The question addressed in this paper is how such route extensions would work with terminal scheduling operations, namely (1) the automated Terminal Sequencing and Spacing (TSS) tools and (2) a new scheduling tool which increases the availability of gaps for departure aircraft (Departure Sensitive Arrival Spacing or DSAS). In a simulated LaGuardia airport (LGA) Terminal Radar Approach Control (TRACON) airspace, two new RNAV arrival routes were created along with extensions to these routes. The arrival route from the south had a downwind leg extension near the airport in the final sector. The arrival route from the north had an extension in a feeder sector further from the airport. An exploratory one-hour run with the route extensions was compared to an hour run without the extensions. Topics included in the paper are 1) how the route extensions were developed, 2) a procedure outlining how the aircraft could be scheduled to the extensions and who would do it, and 3) the results of the exploratory run compared to the original run without the extensions. The results indicated that the extended downwind leg route helped to create a B757 departure gap in the middle of a packed arrival stream, resulting in a reduction of 11 minutes in average wait time for the B757s, but at a cost of increased controller self-reported workload from low to moderate.

time based flow management↗

NASA NTRS2015

Air Traffic Management Technology Demonstration (ATD-1) - Concept to Operations

DEMO↗

NASA NTRS2018

Impact of Different Trajectory Option Set Participation Levels within an Air Traffic Management Collaborative Trajectory Option Program

This paper presents the methodology and results of a Human-In-The-Loop (HITL) simulation study conducted in the Airspace Operations Laboratory at NASA Ames Research Center. This study is a part of NASA's ongoing research into developing an Integrated Demand Management (IDM) concept, whose aim is to improve traffic flow management (TFM) by coordinating the FAA's strategic Traffic Flow Management System (TFMS) with its more tactical Time-Based Flow Management (TBFM) system. The purpose of TFM is to regulate air traffic demand so that it is delivered efficiently through constrained airspace resources without exceeding their capacity limits. The IDM concept leverages a new TFMS capability called the Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP) to strategically pre-condition traffic demand flowing into a TBFM-managed arrival environment, where TBFM is responsible for managing traffic tactically by generating precise arrival schedules. Unlike other TFM tools, CTOP gives flight operators the option of submitting a set of user-preferred alternative trajectories for each flight. CTOP can then use these trajectory option sets (or TOSs) to find user-preferred alternative routes to reduce demand on an overloaded resource. CTOP's effectiveness in redistributing demand is limited, however, by the availability of flights with alternative routes. The research presented in this paper focuses on evaluating the impact on TFM operations by varying the percentage of flights that submit a multiple-option TOS ('TOS participation levels'). Results show the impact on overall system performance and on the rerouted flights themselves. The simulation used a Newark (EWR) airport arrival scenario, with en route weather affecting traffic inbound from the west. Participants were asked to control each of the three arrival flows (north, west, and south) to meet their individual capacity constraints while simultaneously ensuring efficient utilization of the capacity at the destination airport. A large, permeable convective weather cell located southeast of Chicago severely reduced the capacity of the west flow. The study evaluated the impact of five different TOS participation levels on CTOP's ability to re-allocate traffic from the west and improve TFM performance in terms of delay assignment and traffic delivery rate to the airport. Overall, the results showed that increasing TOS submissions allowed the overall system delays to be reduced and fairly distributed among the three arrival flows, at the same time achieving the airport throughput rate. Moreover, it was found that aircraft who submitted a TOS saw a greater reduction in delay, even when they were assigned longer routes. This was particularly true when fewer aircraft submitted a TOS. The results confirm that the CTOP operations with higher TOS participation levels helped utilize the overall National Airspace System (NAS) resources as well as benefited the users who participated.

Yoo, Hyo-Sang↗

NASA NTRS2014

Evaluation of an Arrival Coordinator Position in a Terminal Metering Enviornment

NASA has developed an integrated arrival-management solution for terminal area precision scheduling (TAPSS). Ahuman-in-the-loop simulation investigated the performance of the components of the TAPSS system. The focus ofthis paper is set on the terminal radar approach control (TRACON) traffic management controller (TMC) and ArrivalRadar Coordinator (ARC) combined position, which played an integral part in coordinating, adjusting, and instantiatingthe arrival schedule computed by the TAPSS system. Analysis of the simulation data highlights the roleof the ARC within the described terminal metering environment, describes his planning strategies, the interactionswith his tools and coordination with controllers, and lends insights to the impact of the ARCs actions to the arrivalproblem. High levels of comfort and confidence were reported when working with the TAPSS system. Challengesposed the sequencing of unscheduled satellite arrival flights during periods of peak demand. To accommodate thoseflights into the arrival stream, the ARC had to identify sequence slots, while minimizing disruptions to the schedule.

terminal metering↗

NASA NTRS2020

Benefit Assessment of the Integrated Demand Management Concept for Multiple New York Metroplex Airports

Benefits of the Integrated Demand Management (IDM) concept were assessed utilizing a newly developed automated simulation capability called ‘Traffic Management Initiative Automated Simulation (TMIAutoSim).’ The IDM concept focuses on improving traffic flow management (TFM) by coordinating the FAA’s strategic Traffic Flow Management System (TFMS) with its more tactical Time-Based Flow Management (TBFM) system. The IDM concept leverages a new TFMS capability called Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP) to strategically pre-condition traffic demand flowing into a TBFM-managed arrival environment, where TBFM is responsible for tactically managing traffic by generating precise arrival schedules. The IDM concept was developed over a multi-year effort, focusing on solving New York metroplex airport arrival problems. TMIAutoSim closely mimics NASA’s high-fidelity simulation capabilities while enabling more data to be collected at higher speed. Using this new capability, the IDM concept was evaluated using realistic traffic across various weather scenarios. Six representative weather days were selected after clustering three months of historical data. For those selected six days, Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) and LaGuardia Airport (LGA) arrival traffic scenarios were developed. For each selected day, the historical data were analyzed to accurately simulate actual operations and the weather impact of the day. The current day operations and the IDM concept operations were simulated for the same weather scenarios and the results were compared. The selected six days were categorized into two groups: ‘clear weather’ for days without Ground Delay Programs (GDP) and ‘convective weather’ for days with GDP and significant weather around New York metroplex airports. For the clear weather scenarios, IDM operations reduced last minute, unanticipated departure delays for short-haul flights within TBFM control boundaries with minimal to no impact on throughput and total delay. For the convective weather scenarios, IDM significantly reduced delays and increased throughput to the destination airports.

Traffic Management Initiative Automated Simulation↗

NASA NTRS2015

Arrival Scheduling with Shortcut Path Options and Mixed Aircraft Performance

Previous work introduced the concept of using tactical shortcut options to improve schedule conformance in terminal airspace. When a scheduling point is congested, aircraft are scheduled to longer nominal paths, holding shortcut path options in reserve for tactical use if an aircraft is late, thereby improving the schedule conformance, reducing the required scheduling buffer, and increasing throughput. When the scheduling point is less congested, aircraft may be scheduled to the shorter path with original larger scheduling buffers. Previous work focused on a single generic merge point serving aircraft with uniform arrival precision. This paper extends the previous concept to enhance the performance of time-based arrival management and consider mixed aircraft performance. Aircraft equipped to achieve a high degree of schedule conformance may be scheduled to the shorter path under the same conditions that a less equipped aircraft would be scheduled to the longer path, giving the equipped aircraft an advantage that can be seamlessly integrated into the scheduler. The arrival scheduler with shortcut path options for mixed aircraft performance is applied to a model of first-come first-served terminal metering at Los Angeles International Airport. Whereas clear system benefits were found for tactical shortcut routing and higher percentages of equipped aircraft, very little advantage could be seen for equipped over unequipped aircraft that could be used to incentivize early equipage.

Equipage operations↗

NASA NTRS2015

Methodology to Define Delivery Accuracy Under Current Day ATC Operations

In order to enable arrival management concepts and solutions in a NextGen environment, ground- based sequencing and scheduling functions have been developed to support metering operations in the National Airspace System. These sequencing and scheduling algorithms as well as tools are designed to aid air traffic controllers in developing an overall arrival strategy. The ground systems being developed will support the management of aircraft to their Scheduled Times of Arrival (STAs) at flow-constrained meter points. This paper presents a methodology for determining the undelayed delivery accuracy for current day air traffic control operations. This new method analyzes the undelayed delivery accuracy at meter points in order to understand changes of desired flow rates as well as enabling definition of metrics that will allow near-future ground automation tools to successfully achieve desired separation at the meter points. This enables aircraft to meet their STAs while performing high precision arrivals. The research presents a possible implementation that would allow delivery performance of current tools to be estimated and delivery accuracy requirements for future tools to be defined, which allows analysis of Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) accuracy for Time-Based Flow Management (TBFM) and the FAA's Traffic Management Advisor (TMA). TMA is a deployed system that generates scheduled time-of-arrival constraints for en- route air traffic controllers in the US. This new method of automated analysis provides a repeatable evaluation of the delay metrics for current day traffic, new releases of TMA, implementation of different tools, and across different airspace environments. This method utilizes a wide set of data from the Operational TMA-TBFM Repository (OTTR) system, which processes raw data collected by the FAA from operational TMA systems at all ARTCCs in the nation. The OTTR system generates daily reports concerning ATC status, intent and actions. Due to its availability, ease of use, and vast collection of data across several airspaces it was determined that the OTTR data set would be the best method to utilize moving forward with this analysis. The particular variables needed for further analysis were determined along with the necessary OTTR reports, by working closely with the repository team additional analysis reports were developed that provided key ETA and STA information at the freeze horizon. One major benefit of the OTTR data is that using the correct reports the data across several airports could be analyzed over large periods of time. The OTTR data processes the TBFM data daily and is stored in various formats across several airspaces. This allowed us to develop our own parsing methods and raw data processing that would not rely on other computationally expensive tools that perform more in depth analysis of similar sets of data. The majority of this work consisted of the development of the ability to filter flights to create a subset of flights that could be considered undelayed, which is defined as a flight at the freeze horizon with an ETA and STA difference that was minimal or close to zero. This was a broad method that allowed the consideration of a large data set which consisted of all the traffic across a two month period in 2013, the hottest and coldest months, arriving into four airports: George Bush Intercontinental, Denver International, Los Angeles International, and Phoenix Sky Harbor.

delivery accuracy↗

NASA NTRS2015

Enabling Performance-Based Navigation Arrivals: Development and Simulation Testing of the Terminal Sequencing and Spacing System

NASA has developed an advanced arrival management capability for terminal controllers, known as Terminal Sequencing and Spacing (TSS). TSS increases use of performance-based navigation (PBN) arrival procedures during periods of high traffic demand. It extends two Federal Aviation Administration's operational systems with terminal metering and controller spacing tools. Sixteen high-fidelity human-in-the-loop simulations, involving more than five hundred hours of evaluation time, were conducted to mature TSS from proof-of- concept design to fully functional prototype. These simulations modeled arrival procedures at several U.S. airports, incorporated a broad range of traffic demand profiles and wind conditions, and used controllers with extensive operational experience. Two fundamental metrics are evaluated for these simulations: PBN Success Rate and Inter-Arrival Spacing Error. The PBN Success Rate shows a definitive trend when TSS is used. It increases from 42 percent for today's operations to 68 percent for terminal metering only and 92 percent for terminal metering with controller-managed spacing tools. Meanwhile, the Inter-Arrival Spacing Error improves 25 to 35 percent when TSS is used compared to not used. The TSS technology was transferred to the FAA and, and it is targeted for deployment to several busy airports in the U.S. starting in 2018.

terminal metering↗

NASA NTRS2013

Evaluation of the Controller-Managed Spacing Tools, Flight-Deck Interval Management and Terminal Area Metering Capabilities for the ATM Technology Demonstration #1

NASA has developed a suite of advanced arrival management technologies combining time-based scheduling with controller- and flight deck-based precision spacing capabilities that allow fuel-efficient arrival operations during periods of high throughput. An operational demonstration of these integrated technologies, i.e., the ATM Technology Demonstration #1 (ATD-1), is slated for 2016. Human-in-the-loop simulations were conducted to evaluate the performance of the ATD-1 system and validate operational feasibility. The ATD-1 system was found to be robust to scenarios with saturated demand levels and high levels of system delay. High throughput, 10 above baseline demand levels, and schedule conformance less than 20 seconds at the 75th percentile were achievable. The flight-deck interval management capabilities also improved the median schedule conformance at the final approach fix from 5 to 3 seconds with less variance.

terminal metering↗

NASA NTRS2018

Required Time of Arrival as a Control Mechanism to Mitigate Uncertainty in Arrival Traffic Demand Management

The objective of this study is to explore the use of Required Time of Arrival (RTA) capability on the flight deck as a control mechanism on arrival traffic management to improve traffic delivery accuracy by mitigating the effect of traffic demand uncertainty. The uncertainties are caused by various factors, such as departure error due to the difference between scheduled departure and the actual take-off time. A simulation study was conducted using the Multi Aircraft Control System (MACS) software, a comprehensive research platform developed in the Airspace Operations Laboratory (AOL) at NASA Ames Research Center. The Crossing Time (CT) performance (i.e. the difference between target crossing time and actual crossing time) of the RTA for uncertainty mitigation during cruise phase was evaluated under the influence of varying two main factors: wind severity (heavy wind vs. mild wind), and wind error (1 hour, 2 hours, and 5 hours wind forecast errors). To examine the CT performance improvement made by the RTA, the comparison to the CT of the aircraft that were not assigned with RTA (Non-RTA) under the influence of the selected factors was also made. The Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) was chosen for this study. A total 66 inbound traffic to the EWR (34 of them were airborne when the simulation was initiated, 32 were pre-departures at that time) was simulated, where the pre-scripted departure error was assigned to each pre-departure (61 conform to their Expected Departure Clearance Time, which is +-300 seconds of their scheduled departure time). The results of the study show that the delivery accuracy improvement can be achieved by assigning RTA, regardless of the influence of the selected two factors (the wind severity and the wind information inaccuracy). Across all wind variances, 66.9 (265 out of 396) of the CT performance of the RTA assigned aircraft was within +- 60 seconds (i.e. target tolerance range) and 88.9 (352 out of 396) aircraft met +-300 seconds marginal tolerance range, while only 33.6 (133 out of 396) of the Non-RTA assigned aircrafts CT performance achieved the target tolerance range and 75.5 (299 out of 396) stayed within the marginal. Examination of the impact of different error sources i.e. departure error, wind severity, and wind error suggest that although large departure errors can significantly impact the CT performance, the impacts of wind severity and errors were modest relative the targeted +- 60 second conformance range.

required time of arrival (RTA)↗

NASA NTRS2015

Terminal Sequencing and Spacing (TSS)

The Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) Next Generation Air Transportation System (or NextGen) is being designed to support the predicted increases in traffic volume and to increase the capacity, efficiency and safety of the National Airspace System (NAS). The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) identifies Performance-Based Navigation (PBN) as a key enabling capability of NextGen and is actively publishing PBN procedures at major airports throughout the United States. Standard Terminal Arrival Routes (STARs), procedures, and approaches are designed to facilitate fuel-efficient continuous descent operations. However, their use is limited during periods of high traffic demand due to the complexity of merging multiple streams of aircraft to the same airport. As a result, most arrivals in the Terminal Radar Approach Control (TRACON) area continue to be controlled using radar vectoring and step-down descents, resulting in high workload for controllers and diverting aircraft from efficient PBN trajectories. To address this issue, NASA developed the Terminal Sequencing and Spacing (TSS) system, an advanced arrival management technology that combines time-based scheduling and controller-based precision spacing tools. TSS is a ground-based controller automation tool that facilitates sequencing and merging arrivals on Performance-Based Navigation (PBN) routes, especially during highly congested demand periods. The two main components of TSS are: 1) a scheduler that de-conflicts merging arrivals in the terminal area by computing appropriate arrival times to the runway threshold and upstream terminal merge points, and 2) a set of Controller-Managed Spacing (CMS) decision support tools to efficiently assist schedule conformance. Sixteen high-fidelity human-in-the-loop simulations involving more than five hundred hours of evaluation time, were conducted to mature TSS from proof-of-concept design to a fully functional prototype. Results indicate high controller use and acceptability of the CMS tools as well as improved PBN route conformance (Figure 2). The TSS technology was transferred to the FAA in 2014, and it is targeted for deployment to several busy airports in the U.S. starting in 2018. Potential enhancements to TSS using DataComm will also be presented.

controller-managed spacing↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Machine Learning based Aircraft Performance Model Estimation for Trajectory Prediction

The accurate prediction of aircraft trajectory by ground-based decision support tools is a critical component of air traffic management in the US National Airspace System (NAS). Accurate predictions of where the aircraft will be in the future or when they will arrive at specific locations (e.g., fixes) is a key enabler for sequencing and efficient arrival management of flights. Traditional physics based aircraft trajectory prediction relies on a simplified point-mass total energy model whose parameters are referred to as Aircraft Performance Model (APM) parameters. Even though the performance coefficients and weight of an aircraft are a vital part of the aircraft performance model’s predictions and accuracy, these coefficients are proprietary in nature and therefore, unavailable to decision-support tools. Current approaches freeze some coefficients to default base of aircraft data (BADA) values and optimize others. However, the APM parameters are highly coupled by the flight dynamics and prioritizing one parameter over others leads to bias and skewed predictions. To alleviate this problem, we provide a combined optimization framework to predict all the critical (thrust, drag and weight) APM parameters. This paper is focused on training Machine Learning (ML) models that map historical flights to optimized APM parameters that provide the best fit (in terms of prediction error). Our dataset obtained from NASA’s Sherlock data warehouse is comprised of thousands of historical flights and includes weather and track data collected from 2019. Using different subsets of relevant features (e.g., aircraft type), we trained several ML models to estimate the aircraft’s take off weight, drag polar coefficients (both parasitic and lift induced), and thrust settings (multiplier applied to the maximum engine thrust). The chosen flights are from three of the most common aircraft types (B738, B737, and A320) arriving at four airports (LAX, DEN, MSP, and DFW). Our ML approach is comprised of two different solutions: 1- using a subset of features that are known prior to the flight departure and do not change during flight (such as engine type, current temperature at departure & destination airports, aircraft type) and 2 - using a subset of temporal features of the flight trajectory (such as cruise altitude, Mach, airspeed, and rate of climb) in addition to the pre-departure features from the first solution. The labels or target variables are the APM parameters that were obtained by an optimized ordinary differential equations (ODE) fitting process (applied to individual flights). The ODE-fitting is very time intensive and is therefore performed offline. Thus, training an ML model to learn the relationship between the flight features and ODE-generated labels enables faster estimation of the APM parameters and is therefore amenable to real-time prediction. Various ML models including linear regression, random forest, XGBoost, and neural network were trained, and the results are compared. After model validation and hyperparameter-tuning, we observed that the Random Forest model outperformed the other three models by the overall mean square error (MSE) of 2% for the first solution and 1.5% for the second solution. Finally, the ML-derived parameters are compared against default BADA APM parameters using NASA’s Autonomy Development toolkit (ADK) simulation software. The simulation results for one of each aircraft type is shown and discussed.

Aida Sharif Rohani↗