Results for “Asteroids impact warning” — Page 2

NASA NTRS2014

Mission Design and Analysis for Suborbital Intercept and Fragmentation of an Asteroid with Very Short Warning Time

Small near-Earth objects (NEOs) approximately 50-150 m in size are far more numerous (hundreds of thousands to millions yet to be discovered) than larger NEOs. Small NEOs, which are mostly asteroids rather than comets, are very faint in the night sky due to their small sizes, and are, therefore, difficult to discover far in advance of Earth impact. Furthermore, even small NEOs are capable of creating explosions with energies on the order of tens or hundreds of megatons (Mt). We are, therefore, motivated to prepare to respond effectively to short warning time, small NEO impact scenarios. In this paper we explore the lower bound on actionable warning time by investigating the performance of notional upgraded Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) to carry Nuclear Explosive Device (NED) payloads to intercept and disrupt a hypothetical incoming NEO at high altitudes (generally at least 2500 km above Earth). We conduct this investigation by developing optimal NEO intercept trajectories for a range of cases and comparing their performances. Our results show that suborbital NEO intercepts using Minuteman III or SM-3 IIA launch vehicles could achieve NEO intercept a few minutes prior to when the NEO would strike Earth. We also find that more powerful versions of the launch vehicles (e.g., total delta V of approximately 9.5-11 km/s) could intercept incoming NEOs several hours prior to when the NEO would strike Earth, if launched at least several days prior to the time of intercept. Finally, we discuss a number of limiting factors and practicalities that affect whether the notional systems we describe could become feasible.

near- Earth object↗

NASA NTRS2016

Architecture for Mitigating Short-Term Warning Cosmic Threats: READI Project

Earth is being constantly bombarded by a large variety of celestial bodies and has been since its formation 4.5 billion years ago. Among those bodies, mainly asteroids and comets, there are those that have the potential to create large scale destruction upon impact. The only extinction-level impact recorded to date was 65 million years ago, during the era of dinosaurs. The probability of another extinction-level, or even city-killer, impact may be negligible, but the consequences can be severe for the biosphere and for our species. Therefore it is highly imperative for us to be prepared for such a devastating impact in the near future, especially since humanity is at the threshold of wielding technologies that allow us to do so. Majority of scientists, engineers, and policymakers have focused on long-term strategies and warning periods for Earth orbit crossing Near-Earth Objects (NEOs), and have suggested methods and policies to tackle such problems. However, less attention has been paid to short warning period NEO threats. Such NEOs test current technological and international cooperation capabilities in protecting ourselves, and can create unpredictable devastation ranging from local to global scale. The most recent example is the Chelyabinsk incident in Russia. This event has provided a wakeup call for space agencies and governments around the world towards establishing a Planetary Defense Program. The Roadmap for EArth Defense Initiative (READI) is a project by a team of international, intercultural, and interdisciplinary participants of the International Space University's Space Studies Program 2015 hosted by Ohio University, Athens, OH proposing a roadmap for space agencies, governments, and the general public to tackle NEOs with a short warning before impact. Taking READI as a baseline, this paper presents a technical description of methodologies proposed for detection and impact mitigation of a medium-sized comet (up to 800m across) with a short-warning period of two years on a collision course with Earth. The hypothetical comet is on a highly-inclined orbit having a high probability for Earth impact after its perihelion. For detection, we propose a space-based infrared detection system consisting of two satellites located at the Earth-Moon Lagrange points L1 and L2 coupled with space observatories, like the James Webb telescope and the Centennial telescope. These telescopes are supported by ground-based telescopes, like the Arecibo and Green Bank telescope, in the search for NEOs. Upon detection, the comet is tracked constantly using space- and ground-based telescopes. The deflection system is two-pronged, firstly involving the use of a high energy Directed Energy Laser Terminals (DELT) placed at Sun-Earth Lagrange points L4 and L5 so as to initiate and increase the ablation rate of the comet and deviate it from its collision trajectory, and secondly by the Hypervelocity Comet Intercept Vehicle (HCIV), a space-borne system combining a kinetic impactor with a thermonuclear device. The policy and international collaboration aspects to implement these methods are also outlined in the paper. The techniques mentioned could also be applied to mitigate medium-to-large sized asteroids (up to 2km across).

Laser Applications↗

NASA NTRS2016

Planetary Defense Architecture for Mitigating Short-Term Warning Cosmic Threats: READI Project

Earth is being constantly bombarded by a large variety of celestial bodies and has been since its formation 4.5 billion years ago. Among those bodies, mainly asteroids and comets, there are those that have the potential to create large scale destruction upon impact. The only extinction-level impact recorded to date was 65 million years ago, during the era of dinosaurs. The probability of another extinction-level, or even city-killer, impact may be negligible, but the consequences can be severe for the biosphere and for our species. Therefore it is highly imperative for us to be prepared for such a devastating impact in the near future, especially since humanity is at the threshold of wielding technologies that allow us to do so. Majority of scientists, engineers, and policymakers have focused on long-term strategies and warning periods for Earth orbit crossing Near-Earth Objects (NEOs), and have suggested methods and policies to tackle such problems. However, less attention has been paid to short warning period NEO threats. Such NEOs test current technological and international cooperation capabilities in protecting ourselves, and can create unpredictable devastation ranging from local to global scale. The most recent example is the Chelyabinsk incident in Russia. This event has provided a wakeup call for space agencies and governments around the world towards establishing a Planetary Defense Program. The Roadmap for EArth Defense Initiative (READI) is a project by a team of international, intercultural, and interdisciplinary participants of the International Space University's Space Studies Program 2015 hosted by Ohio University, Athens, OH proposing a roadmap for space agencies, governments, and the general public to tackle NEOs with a short warning before impact. Taking READI as a baseline, this paper presents a technical description of methodologies proposed for detection and impact mitigation of a medium-sized comet (up to 800m across) with a short-warning period of two years on a collision course with Earth. The hypothetical comet is on a highly-inclined orbit having a high probability for Earth impact after its perihelion. For detection, we propose a space-based infrared detection system consisting of two satellites located at the Earth-Moon Lagrange points L1 and L2 coupled with space observatories, like the James Webb telescope and the Centennial telescope. These telescopes are supported by ground-based telescopes, like the Arecibo and Green Bank telescope, in the search for NEOs. Upon detection, the comet is tracked constantly using space- and ground-based telescopes. The deflection system is two-pronged, firstly involving the use of a high energy Directed Energy Laser Terminals (DELT) placed at Sun-Earth Lagrange points L4 and L5 so as to initiate and increase the ablation rate of the comet and deviate it from its collision trajectory, and secondly by the Hypervelocity Comet Intercept Vehicle (HCIV), a space-borne system combining a kinetic impactor with a thermonuclear device. The policy and international collaboration aspects to implement these methods are also outlined in the paper. The techniques mentioned could also be applied to mitigate medium-to-large sized asteroids (up to 2km across).

Laser Applications↗

NASA NTRS2015

Suborbital Intercept and Fragmentation of an Asteroid with Very Short Warning Time Scenario

Small near-Earth objects (NEOs) is approx. 50-150 m in size are far more numerous (hundreds of thousands to millions yet to be discovered) than larger NEOs. Small NEOs, which are mostly asteroids rather than comets, are very faint in the night sky due to their small sizes, and are, therefore, difficult to discover far in advance of Earth impact. Furthermore, even small NEOs are capable of creating explosions with energies on the order of tens or hundreds of megatons (Mt). We are, therefore, motivated to prepare to respond effectively to short warning time, small NEO impact scenarios. In this paper we explore the lower bound on actionable warning time by investigating the performance of notional upgraded Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) to carry Nuclear Explosive Device (NED) payloads to intercept and disrupt a hypothetical incoming NEO at high altitudes (generally at least 2500 km above Earth). We conduct this investigation by developing optimal NEO intercept trajectories for a range of cases and comparing their performances. Our results show that suborbital NEO intercepts using Minuteman III or SM-3 IIA launch vehicles could achieve NEO intercept a few minutes prior to when the NEO would strike Earth. We also find that more powerful versions of the launch vehicles (e.g., total deltaV is approx. 9.5-11 km/s) could intercept incoming NEOs several hours prior to when the NEO would strike Earth, if launched at least several days prior to the time of intercept. Finally, we discuss a number of limiting factors and practicalities that affect whether the notional systems we describe could become feasible.

Asteroid↗

NASA NTRS2016

NEA Mitigation Studies for Short Warning Time Scenarios

This talk describes current collaborative research efforts between NASA GSFC and the Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) national labs (Lawrence Livermore, Los Alamos, and Sandia) to design systems and frameworks for robust responses to short warning time near-Earth asteroid (NEA) scenarios, in which we would have less than 10 years to respond to an NEA on its way to impact the Earth.

planetary defense↗

NASA NTRS1997

Long-Period Comets and the Oort Cloud

The long-period comets pose a unique problem for the impact hazard problem. Because of their very long orbital] periods and generally large distances from the Sun, they cannot be surveyed and catalogued in the same manner as the near-Earth asteroids and short-period comets. They appear at random, uniformly distributed on the celestial sphere. Current technologies can detect long-period comets at distances of approx. 5 AU, giving somewhat less than a one year warning time for potential Earth impactors. The mean impact probability for a long-period comet crossing the Earth's orbit is 2.2 to 2.5 x 10(exp -9) per perihelion passage. The mean impact velocity is approximately 52 km sec-1 but the most probable impact energy is characterized by a velocity of 56 to 58 km/sec. The estimated current impact rate for cometary nuclei large enough to create 10 km diameter (or larger) craters on the Earth is between 5 x 10(exp -7) and 2.8 x 10(exp -6) per year, with a bed estimated value of 1.0 x 10(exp -6) per year. Nuclei large enough to initiate global climatic disturbances strike the Earth on average every 16 Myr. The impact frequency may be increased substantially for brief periods of time during cometary showers, initiated by major perturbations of the Oort cloud. Improved technologies are needed to detect approaching long-period comets at large heliocentric distances so as to increase the warning time for potential impactors.

Weissman, Paul R.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Long-Period Comets and the Oort Cloud

The long-period comets pose a unique problem for the impact hazard problem. Because of their very long orbital period and generally large distances form the Sun, they cannot be surveyed and catalogued in the same manner as the near-Earth asteroids and short-period comets..Improved technologies are needed to detect approaching long-period comets at large heliocentric distances so as to increase the warning time for potential impactors.

long-period comets comets comet impact↗

NASA NTRS2002

Comet/Asteroid Protection System (CAPS): A Space-Based System Concept for Revolutionizing Earth Protection and Utilization of Near-Earth Objects

There exists an infrequent, but significant hazard to life and property due to impacting asteroids and comets. There is currently no specific search for long-period comets, smaller near-Earth asteroids, or smaller short-period comets. These objects represent a threat with potentially little or no warning time using conventional ground-based telescopes. These planetary bodies also represent a significant resource for commercial exploitation, long-term sustained space exploration, and scientific research. The Comet/Asteroid Protection System (CAPS) would expand the current detection effort to include long-period comets, as well as small asteroids and short-period comets capable of regional destruction. A space-based detection system, despite being more costly and complex than Earth-based initiatives, is the most promising way of expanding the range of detectable objects, and surveying the entire celestial sky on a regular basis. CAPS is a future spacebased system concept that provides permanent, continuous asteroid and comet monitoring, and rapid, controlled modification of the orbital trajectories of selected bodies. CAPS would provide an orbit modification system capable of diverting kilometer class objects, and modifying the orbits of smaller asteroids for impact defense and resource utilization. This paper provides a summary of CAPS and discusses several key areas and technologies that are being investigated.

Mazanek, Daniel D.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Comet/Asteroid Protection System (CAPS): Preliminary Space-Based Concept and Study Results

There exists an infrequent, but significant hazard to life and property due to impacting asteroids and comets. There is currently no specific search for long-period comets, smaller near-Earth asteroids, or smaller short-period comets. These objects represent a threat with potentially little or no warning time using conventional ground-based telescopes. These planetary bodies also represent a significant resource for commercial exploitation, long-term sustained space exploration, and scientific research. The Comet/Asteroid Protection System (CAPS) is a future space-based system concept that provides permanent, continuous asteroid and comet monitoring, and rapid, controlled modification of the orbital trajectories of selected bodies. CAPS would expand the current detection effort to include long-period comets, as well as small asteroids and short-period comets capable of regional destruction. A space-based detection system, despite being more costly and complex than Earth-based initiatives, is the most promising way of expanding the range of detectable objects, and surveying the entire celestial sky on a regular basis. CAPS would provide an orbit modification system capable of diverting kilometer class objects, and modifying the orbits of smaller asteroids for impact defense and resource utilization. This Technical Memorandum provides a compilation of key related topics and analyses performed during the CAPS study, which was performed under the Revolutionary Aerospace Systems Concepts (RASC) program, and discusses technologies that could enable the implementation of this future system.

Mazanek, Daniel D.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Optimal Fragmentation and Dispersion of Hazardous Near-Earth Objects

The complex problem of protecting the Earth from the possibility of a catastrophic impact by a hazardous near-Earth object (NEO) has been recently reassessed in [1]. In a letter on NEOs from the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) to the U.S. Senate and Congress in 2010, the White House OSTP strongly recommended that NASA take the lead in conducting research activities for NEO detection, characterization, and deflection technologies. Furthermore, President Obama's new National Space Policy specifically directs NASA to "pursue capabilities, in cooperation with other departments, agencies, and commercial partners, to detect, track, catalog, and characterize NEOs to reduce the risk of harm to humans from an unexpected impact on our planet." The Planetary Defense Task Force of the NASA Advisory Council also recommended that the NASA Office of the Chief Technologist (OCT) begin efforts to investigate asteroid deflection techniques. With national interest growing in the United States, the NEO threat detection and mitigation problem was recently identified as one of NASA's Space Technology Grand Challenges. An innovative solution to NASA's NEO Impact Threat Mitigation Grand Challenge problem was developed through a NIAC Phase I study (9/16/11 - 9/15/12), and it will be further investigated for a NIAC Phase II study (9/10/12 - 9/9/14). Various NEO deflection technologies, including nuclear explosions, kinetic impactors, and slow-pull gravity tractors, have been proposed and examined during the past two decades. Still, there is no consensus on how to reliably deflect or disrupt hazardous NEOs in a timely manner. It is expected that the most probable mission scenarios will have a mission lead time much shorter than 10 years, so the use of nuclear explosives becomes the most feasible method for planetary defense. Direct intercept missions with a short warning time will result in arrival closing velocities of 10-30 kilometers per second with respect to the target asteroid. Given such a large arrival delta V requirement, a rendezvous mission to the target asteroid is infeasible with existing launch vehicles. Furthermore, state-of-the-art penetrating subsurface nuclear explosion technology limits the penetrator's impact velocity to less than approximately 300 meters per second because higher impact velocities prematurely destroy the nuclear fuzing mechanisms. Therefore, significant advances in hypervelocity nuclear interceptor/ penetrator technology must be achieved to enable a last-minute nuclear disruption mission with intercept velocities as high as 30 kilometers per second. Consequently, a HAIV (Hypervelocity Asteroid Intercept Vehicle) mission architecture (Figure 1.1), which blends a hypervelocity kinetic impactor with a subsurface nuclear explosion for optimal fragmentation and dispersion of hazardous NEOs, has been developed through a Phase I study, and it will be further developed and validated through a Phase II study.

Asteroid↗

NASA NTRS2011

Comparing the Earth Impact Flux from Comets and Near-Earth Asteroids

Long-period comets (LPC), defined here as those active comets with orbital periods greater than 200 years, are the most difficult objects to mitigate should one be found on an Earth threatening trajectory. The arrival of these objects from the distant Oort cloud cannot be predicted and the impact warning time would be measured in a few months - not years. At the distance of Jupiter, an inactive cometary nucleus with a diameter of one kilometer and a geometric albedo equal to 0.04 would have an apparent magnitude fainter than 25 near opposition and, hence would be well outside the detection capability of current NEO search telescopes. In general LPCs do not become active, and hence discoverable, until inside the orbit of Jupiter and it takes but nine months for a LPC to travel the distance from Jupiter's orbit to that of the Earth.Estimating the impact energy for long-period comets is particularly difficult because the sizes and masses of these objects are not well known. Their solid nuclei are hidden from ground-based telescopes by their gas and dust atmospheres and even when nearby spacecraft observations can determine a size and shape for a cometary nucleus, there are no direct determinations of any cometary mass or bulk density to date. However, a variety of indirect bulk density determinations consistently provide values below one gram per cubic centimeter, the value for water. From measurements made by the Deep Impact spacecraft during its encounter with comet Tempel 1 in July 2005, the bulk density was estimated to be 0.6 grams per cubic centimeter. The mean impact velocity of a LPC is about 51 km/s, three times the 17 km/s value for a typical near-Earth asteroid (NEA) so the impact energy for an LPC would be 9 times that of a NEA of similar mass. However, the bulk density of a comet (approx. 0.6 g/cu cm) is several times less than the density of a stony NEA (approx. 2.6 g/ cu cm) so for a LPC and a stony NEA of the same size, the LPC's impact energy would be about twice that of the NEA.To properly allocate the limited resources available for NEO surveys and physical characterization, it is important to understand the relative threat from long-period comets versus the threat posed by near-Earth asteroids.

near Earth objects↗

NASA NTRS2015

Los Alamos RAGE Simulations of the HAIV Mission Concept

The mitigation of potentially hazardous objects (PHOs) can be accomplished by a variety of methods including kinetic impactors, gravity tractors and several nuclear explosion options. Depending on the available lead time prior to Earth impact, non- nuclear options can be very effective at altering a PHOs orbit. However if the warning time is short nuclear options are generally deemed most effective at mitigating the hazard. The NIAC mission concept for a nuclear mission has been presented at several meetings, including the last PDC (2013).We use the adaptive mesh hydrocode RAGE to perform detailed simulations of this Hypervelocity Asteroid Intercept Vehicle (HAIV) mission concept. We use the RAGE code to simulate the crater formation by the kinetic impactor as well as the explosion and energy coupling from the follower nuclear explosive device (NED) timed to detonate below the original surface to enhance the energy coupling. The RAGE code has been well validated for a wide variety of applications. A parametric study will be shown of the energy and momentum transfer to the target 100 m diameter object: 1) the HAIV mission as planned; 2) a surface explosion and 3) a subsurface (contained) explosion; both 2) and 3) use the same source energy as 1).Preliminary RAGE simulations show that the kinetic impactor will carve out a surface crater on the object and the subsequent NED explosion at the bottom of the crater transfers energy and momentum to the target effectively moving it off its Earth crossing orbit. Figure 1 shows the initial (simplified) RAGE 2D setup geometry for this study. Figure 2 shows the crater created by the kinetic impactor and Figure 3 shows the time sequence of the energy transfer to the target by the NED.

Asteroid Mitigation↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Probabilistic Blast Damage Modeling Uncertainties and Sensitivities

Blast overpressure is the predominant source of ground damage posed by potentially hazardous asteroid strikes. Estimates of the extent, severity, and likelihoods of potential blast damage regions will be one of the key metrics needed to mount civil defense or disaster response plans in the face of an impending impact. However, there are many inherent sources of uncertainty in evaluating the damage, both in characterizing the properties of the incoming object and in the approaches used to model the entry/impact and resulting damage, which make it difficult to produce a single ‘accurate’ or ‘best guess’ prediction of ground damage. The current 2021 PDC hypothetical impact scenario poses a particular challenge due to its short warning time. The need for rapid disaster response to prepare for an immanent impact, combined with lack of observational opportunities to refine basic knowledge about the object’s basic size and properties, make understanding the range and relative likelihood of consequences particularly critical. The potential damage caused by these blasts can be evaluated using a range of modeling and simulation approaches and levels of fidelity. Fast-running engineering-level models can be used to run large numbers of probabilistically sampled cases covering wide variations of uncertain properties or parameters. High-fidelity simulations, on the other hand, can capture more detailed/accurate blast physics, but can only be performed for a small selection of specific cases, requiring many assumptions to be made about the initial object and its unpredictable entry/breakup characteristics. In order to provide a more complete picture of the potential threat for effective disaster response, both types of analysis need to be employed together. In this approach, high-fidelity simulations are used to refine and anchor engineering models, and the probabilistic engineering models are used to evaluate broad parameters spaces and guide selection of the most pertinent simulation cases for a given scenario. This presentation expands upon the probabilistic asteroid impact risk assessments being performed as part of the 2021 PDC hypothetical impact exercise, focusing on key aspects of blast damage modeling uncertainties and sensitivities. We review the current modeling and simulation approaches employed in the current assessment, compare the relative levels of uncertainty stemming from each main element of the problem (i.e., knowledge of the asteroid properties, modeling of the atmospheric entry/breakup and airburst, and estimates of the ground damage from the resulting blasts waves), and highlight any notable trends and sensitivities for the current scenario case.

SMD↗

NASA NTRS2002

Laser Prevention of Earth Impact Disasters

We now believe that while there are about 2000 earth orbit crossing rocks greater than 1 kilometer in diameter, there may be as many as 100,000 or more objects in the 100m size range. Can anything be done about this fundamental existence question facing us? The answer is a resounding yes! We have the technology to prevent collisions. By using an intelligent combination of Earth and space based sensors coupled with an infrastructure of high-energy laser stations and other secondary mitigation options, we can deflect inbound asteroids, meteoroids, and comets and prevent them from striking the Earth. This can be accomplished by irradiating the surface of an inbound rock with sufficiently intense pulses so that ablation occurs. This ablation acts as a small rocket incrementally changing the shape of the rock's orbit around the Sun. One-kilometer size rocks can be moved sufficiently in a month while smaller rocks may be moved in a shorter time span.We recommend that the World's space objectives be immediately reprioritized to start us moving quickly towards a multiple option defense capability. While lasers should be the primary approach, all mitigation options depend on robust early warning, detection, and tracking resources to find objects sufficiently prior to Earth orbit passage in time to allow mitigation. Infrastructure options should include ground, LEO, GEO, Lunar, and libration point laser and sensor stations for providing early warning, tracking, and deflection. Other options should include space interceptors that will carry both laser and nuclear ablators for close range work. Response options must be developed to deal with the consequences of an impact should we move too slowly.

Campbell, J.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Impacts and evolution: future prospects

The discipline of astrobiology includes the dynamics of biological evolution. One of the major ways that the cosmos influences life is through the catastrophic environmental disruptions caused when comets and asteroids collide with a planet. We now recognize that such impacts have caused mass extinctions and played a major role in determining the evolution of life on Earth. The time-averaged impact flux as a function of projectile energy can be derived from lunar cratering statistics as well as the current population of near Earth asteroids (NEAs). Effects of impacts of various energies can be modeled, using data from historic impacts [such as the Cretaceous-Tertiary (KT) impactor 65 million years ago] and the observed 1994 bombardment of Jupiter by fragments of Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9. It is of particular interest to find from such models that the terrestrial environment is highly vulnerable to perturbation from impacts, so that even such a small event as the KT impact (by a projectile 10-15 km in diameter) can lead to a mass extinction. Similar considerations allow us to model the effects of still smaller (and much more likely) impacts, down to the size of the asteroid that exploded over Tunguska in 1908 (energy approximately 10 megatons). Combining the impact flux with estimates of environmental and ecological effects reveals that the greatest contemporary hazard is associated with impactors near 1 million megatons in energy (approximately 2 km in diameter for an asteroid). The current impact hazard is significant relative to other natural hazards, and arguments can be developed to illuminate a variety of public policy issues. The first priority in any plan for defense against impactors is to survey the population of Earth-crossing NEAs and project their orbits forward in time. This is the purpose of the Spaceguard Survey, which has already found more than half of the NEAs >1 km in diameter. If there is an NEA on a collision course with Earth, it can be discovered and the impact predicted with decades or more of warning. It is then possible to consider how to deflect or disrupt the NEA. Unlike other natural hazards, the impact risk can be largely eliminated, given sufficient advanced knowledge to take action against the threatening projectile.

Directed Molecular Evolution↗

NASA NTRS2003

The Impact Imperative: A Space Infrastructure Enabling a Multi-Tiered Earth Defense

Impacting at hypervelocity, an asteroid struck the Earth approximately 65 million years ago in the Yucatan Peninsula a m . This triggered the extinction of almost 70% of the species of life on Earth including the dinosaurs. Other impacts prior to this one have caused even greater extinctions. Preventing collisions with the Earth by hypervelocity asteroids, meteoroids, and comets is the most important immediate space challenge facing human civilization. This is the Impact Imperative. We now believe that while there are about 2000 earth orbit crossing rocks greater than 1 kilometer in diameter, there may be as many as 200,000 or more objects in the 100 m size range. Can anything be done about this fundamental existence question facing our civilization? The answer is a resounding yes! By using an intelligent combination of Earth and space based sensors coupled with an infrastructure of high-energy laser stations and other secondary mitigation options, we can deflect inbound asteroids, meteoroids, and comets and prevent them &om striking the Earth. This can be accomplished by irradiating the surface of an inbound rock with sufficiently intense pulses so that ablation occurs. This ablation acts as a small rocket incrementally changing the shape of the rock's orbit around the Sun. One-kilometer size rocks can be moved sufficiently in about a month while smaller rocks may be moved in a shorter time span. We recommend that space objectives be immediately reprioritized to start us moving quickly towards an infrastructure that will support a multiple option defense capability. Planning and development for a lunar laser facility should be initiated immediately in parallel with other options. All mitigation options are greatly enhanced by robust early warning, detection, and tracking resources to find objects sufficiently prior to Earth orbit passage in time to allow significant intervention. Infrastructure options should include ground, LEO, GEO, Lunar, and libration point laser and sensor stations for providing early warning, tracking, and deflection. Other options should include space interceptors that will carry both laser and nuclear ablators for close range work. Response options must be developed to deal with the consequences of an impact should we move too slowly.

Campbell, Jonathan W.↗

NASA NTRS2013

A System for Fault Management for NASA's Deep Space Habitat

NASA's exploration program envisions the utilization of a Deep Space Habitat (DSH) for human exploration of the space environment in the vicinity of Mars and/or asteroids. Communication latencies with ground control of as long as 20+ minutes make it imperative that DSH operations be highly autonomous, as any telemetry-based detection of a systems problem on Earth could well occur too late to assist the crew with the problem. A DSH-based development program has been initiated to develop and test the automation technologies necessary to support highly autonomous DSH operations. One such technology is a fault management tool to support performance monitoring of vehicle systems operations and to assist with real-time decision making in connection with operational anomalies and failures. Toward that end, we are developing Advanced Caution and Warning System (ACAWS), a tool that combines dynamic and interactive graphical representations of spacecraft systems, systems modeling, automated diagnostic analysis and root cause identification, system and mission impact assessment, and mitigation procedure identification to help spacecraft operators (both flight controllers and crew) understand and respond to anomalies more effectively. In this paper, we describe four major architecture elements of ACAWS: Anomaly Detection, Fault Isolation, System Effects Analysis, and Graphic User Interface (GUI), and how these elements work in concert with each other and with other tools to provide fault management support to both the controllers and crew. We then describe recent evaluations and tests of ACAWS on the DSH testbed. The results of these tests support the feasibility and strength of our approach to failure management automation and enhanced operational autonomy.

Fault management↗

NASA NTRS2013

A System for Fault Management and Fault Consequences Analysis for NASA's Deep Space Habitat

NASA's exploration program envisions the utilization of a Deep Space Habitat (DSH) for human exploration of the space environment in the vicinity of Mars and/or asteroids. Communication latencies with ground control of as long as 20+ minutes make it imperative that DSH operations be highly autonomous, as any telemetry-based detection of a systems problem on Earth could well occur too late to assist the crew with the problem. A DSH-based development program has been initiated to develop and test the automation technologies necessary to support highly autonomous DSH operations. One such technology is a fault management tool to support performance monitoring of vehicle systems operations and to assist with real-time decision making in connection with operational anomalies and failures. Toward that end, we are developing Advanced Caution and Warning System (ACAWS), a tool that combines dynamic and interactive graphical representations of spacecraft systems, systems modeling, automated diagnostic analysis and root cause identification, system and mission impact assessment, and mitigation procedure identification to help spacecraft operators (both flight controllers and crew) understand and respond to anomalies more effectively. In this paper, we describe four major architecture elements of ACAWS: Anomaly Detection, Fault Isolation, System Effects Analysis, and Graphic User Interface (GUI), and how these elements work in concert with each other and with other tools to provide fault management support to both the controllers and crew. We then describe recent evaluations and tests of ACAWS on the DSH testbed. The results of these tests support the feasibility and strength of our approach to failure management automation and enhanced operational autonomy

System Effects Analysis↗