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Results for “Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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23 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Warming Pattern over the Northern Hemisphere Midlatitudes in Boreal Summer 1979–2020

Abstract Significant surface air temperature warming during summer 1979–2020 is not uniformly distributed in the northern midlatitudes over land but rather is confined to several longitudinal sectors including Europe, central Siberia and Mongolia, and both coasts of North America. These hot spots are accompanied by a chain of high pressure ridges from an anomalous, circumglobal Rossby wave train in the upper troposphere. From reanalysis data and several baseline experiments from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we find that the circulation trend pattern is associated with fluctuations of the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) and the interdecadal Pacific oscillation. The phase shift of AMV in the 1990s is particularly noteworthy for accelerating warming averaged over the northern midlatitude land. The amplitude of the observed trend in both surface air temperature and the upper-level geopotential height generally falls beyond the range of multidecadal trends simulated by the CMIP6 preindustrial control runs, supporting the likelihood that anthropogenic forcing played a critical role in the observed trend. On the other hand, the fidelity of the simulated low-frequency modes of variability and their teleconnections, especially on multidecadal time scales, is difficult to assess because of the relatively short observational records. Our mechanistic modeling results indicate that synoptic eddy–mean flow interaction is a key to the formation of the anomalous wave train but how the multidecadal modes can modulate the synoptic eddies through atmosphere–ocean and atmosphere–land interactions remains poorly understood. This gap in our knowledge makes it challenging to quantify the roles of the low-frequency modes and external forcings in causing the observed multidecadal trends.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Warm Phase of AMV Damps ENSO Through Weakened Thermocline Feedback

Abstract Interactions between ocean basins affect El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), altering its impacts on society. Here, we explore the effect of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) on ENSO behavior using idealized experiments performed with the NCAR‐CESM1 model. Comparing warm (AMV+) to cold (AMV−) AMV conditions, we find that ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are reduced by ∼10% and ENSO precipitation anomalies are shifted to the west during El Niño and east during La Niña. Using the Bjerknes stability index, we attribute the reduction in ENSO variability to a weakened thermocline feedback in boreal autumn. In AMV+, the Walker circulation and trade winds strengthen over the tropical Pacific, increasing the background zonal SST gradient. The background changes shift ENSO anomalies westwards, with wind stress anomalies more confined to the west. We suggest the changes in ENSO‐wind stress decrease the strength of the thermocline feedback in the east, eventually reducing ENSO growth rate.

Trascasa‐Castro, Paloma↗
DOE OSTI2022

A regional (land–ocean) comparison of the seasonal to decadal variability of the Northern Hemisphere jet stream 1871–2011

Seasonal to decadal variations in Northern Hemisphere jet stream latitude and speed over land (Eurasia, North America) and oceanic (North Atlantic, North Pacific) regions are presented for the period 1871–2011 from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis dataset. Significant regional differences are seen on seasonal to decadal timescales. Seasonally, the jet latitude range is lower over the oceans compared to land, reduced from 20° over Eurasia to 10° over the North Atlantic where the ocean meridional heat transport is greatest. The mean jet latitude range is at a minimum in winter (DJF), particularly along the western boundary of the North Pacific and North Atlantic, where the land-sea contrast and SST gradients are strongest. The 141-year trends in jet latitude and speed show differences on a regional basis. The North Atlantic has significant increasing jet latitude trends in all seasons, up to 3° in winter. Eurasia has significant increasing trends in winter and summer, however, no increase is seen across the North Pacific or North America. Jet speed shows significant increases evident in winter (up to 4.7 ms –1 ), spring and autumn over the North Atlantic, Eurasia and North America however, over the North Pacific no increase is observed. Long term trends are generally overlaid by multidecadal variability, particularly evident in the North Pacific, where 20-year variability in jet latitude and jet speed are seen, associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation which explains 50% of the winter variance in jet latitude since 1940. The results highlight that northern hemisphere jet variability and trends differ on a regional basis (North Atlantic, North Pacific, Eurasia and North America) on seasonal to decadal timescales, suggesting that different mechanisms are influencing the jet latitude and speed. This is important from a climate modelling perspective and for climate predictions in the near and longer term.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Freshwater Flux Variability Lengthens the Period of the Low-Frequency AMOC Variability

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exhibits interdecadal to multidecadal variability, yet the extent to which the surface freshwater flux (FWF) variability affects the AMOC variability remains unclear. This study isolates the contribution of FWF variability in modulating AMOC through a partially coupled experiment, in which the FWF effect from the atmosphere and sea ice are disabled. It is demonstrated that the FWF effect can remarkably enhance the persistence of positive salinity anomalies in the Labrador Sea, and sustain the dense water formation that was initiated by the cold temperature anomalies. Therefore, the FWF variability serves as a positive feedback on AMOC and lengthens the period of the AMOC oscillation. Further lead-lag regressions of atmospheric and oceanic variables onto the AMOC time series illuminate that the persistent salinity anomalies are generated through two pathways: i) the phase lag between temperature and salinity anomalies in the Labrador Sea; and ii) a downstream propagation of extra high-salinity anomaly along the East Greenland Current, due to the reduced sea ice melting flux associated with an atmosphere forcing over the southern Greenland tip.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Strong Red Noise Ocean Forcing on Atlantic Multidecadal Variability Assessed from Surface Heat Flux: Theory and Application

The role of ocean forcing on Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) is assessed from the (downward) heat flux–SST relation in the framework of a new stochastic climate theory forced by red noise ocean forcing. Previous studies suggested that atmospheric forcing drives SST variability from monthly to interannual time scales, with a positive heat flux–SST correlation, while heat flux induced by ocean processes can drive SST variability at decadal and longer time scales, with a negative heat flux–SST correlation. Here, first, we develop a theory to show how the sign of heat flux–SST correlation is affected by atmospheric and oceanic forcing with time scale. In particular, a red noise ocean forcing is necessary for the sign reversal of heat flux–SST correlation. Furthermore, this sign reversal can be detected equivalently in three approaches: the low-pass correlation at lag zero, the unfiltered correlation at long (heat flux) lead, and the real part of the heat flux–SST coherence. Second, we develop a new scheme in combination with the theory to assess the magnitude and time scale of the red noise ocean forcing for AMV in the GFDL SPEAR model (Seamless System for Prediction and Earth System Research) and observations. In both the model and observations, the ocean forcing on AMV is in general comparable with the atmospheric forcing, with a 90% probability greater than the atmospheric forcing in observations. In contrast to the white noise atmospheric forcing, the ocean forcing has a persistence time comparable or longer than a year, much longer than the SST persistence of ~3 months. This slow ocean forcing is associated implicitly with slow subsurface ocean dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗