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DOE OSTI2025

Global Carbon Budget 2024

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize datasets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC) are based on land-use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The global net uptake of CO2 by the ocean (SOCEAN, called the ocean sink) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based fCO2 products (fCO2 is the fugacity of CO2). The global net uptake of CO2 by the land (SLAND, called the land sink) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. Additional lines of evidence on land and ocean sinks are provided by atmospheric inversions, atmospheric oxygen measurements, and Earth system models. The sum of all sources and sinks results in the carbon budget imbalance (BIM), a measure of imperfect data and incomplete understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the year 2023, EFOS increased by 1.3 % relative to 2022, with fossil emissions at 10.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (10.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is not included), and ELUC was 1.0 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 11.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1 (40.6 ± 3.2 GtCO2 yr−1). Also, for 2023, GATM was 5.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.79 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1; ppm denotes parts per million), SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 2.3 ± 1.0 GtC yr−1, with a near-zero BIM (−0.02 GtC yr−1). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2023 reached 419.31 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2024 suggest an increase in EFOS relative to 2023 of +0.8 % (−0.2 % to 1.7 %) globally and an atmospheric CO2 concentration increase by 2.87 ppm, reaching 422.45 ppm, 52 % above the pre-industrial level (around 278 ppm in 1750). Overall, the mean of and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2023, with a near-zero overall budget imbalance, although discrepancies of up to around 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows the following: (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the mean ocean sink. This living-data update documents changes in methods and datasets applied to this most recent global carbon budget as well as evolving community understanding of the global carbon cycle. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2024 (Friedlingstein et al., 2024).

Friedlingstein, Pierre (ORCID:0000000333094739)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Global Carbon Budget 2025

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesise datasets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO 2 emissions (E FOS ) are based on energy and cement production data. Emissions from land-use change (E LUC ) are estimated by bookkeeping models based on land-use data. The global atmospheric CO 2 growth rate (G ATM ) is computed from changes in concentration measured at surface stations. The global net uptake of CO 2 by the ocean (S OCEAN ) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based fCO 2 -products. The global net uptake of CO 2 by the land (S LAND ) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. Additional lines of evidence are provided by atmospheric inversions, atmospheric oxygen measurements, ocean interior observation-based estimates, and Earth System Models. This year, we introduced corrections on the E LUC , S OCEAN and S LAND estimates. The sum of all sources and sinks results in the carbon budget imbalance (B IM ), a measure of imperfect data and incomplete understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ± 1σ. For the year 2024, E FOS increased by 1.1 % relative to 2023, with fossil emissions at 10.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1 (including the cement carbonation sink, 0.2 GtC yr −1 ), E LUC was 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr −1 , for total anthropogenic CO 2 emissions of 11.6 ± 0.9 GtC yr −1 (42.4 ± 3.2 GtCO2 yr −1 ). Also, for 2024, G ATM was 7.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (3.73 ± 0.1 ppm yr −1 ), 2.2 GtC above the 2023 growth rate. SOCEAN was 3.4 ± 0.4 GtC yr −1 and S LAND was 1.9 ± 1.1 GtC yr −1 , leaving a large negative B IM (−1.7 GtC yr −1 ), suggesting that the total sink or G ATM is strongly overestimated in 2024. The global atmospheric CO 2 concentration averaged over 2024 reached 422.8 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2025 suggest an increase in E FOS relative to 2024 of +1.0 % (0.2 % to 1.7 %) globally, and atmospheric CO 2 concentration increasing by 2.1 ppm reaching 425.6 ppm, 53 % above the pre-industrial level (around 278 ppm in 1750). Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2024, with a near-zero overall budget imbalance, although discrepancies of up to around 1 GtC yr −1 persist for the representation of annual to decadal variability in CO 2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows: (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO 2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the mean ocean sink. This living data update documents changes in methods and datasets applied to this most-recent global carbon budget as well as evolving community understanding of the global carbon cycle. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2025 (Friedlingstein et al., 2025c).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1971

A survey of multispectral remote sensing techniques for earth resources applications.

Remote sensing for earth resources applications has as its objective the collection and interpretation of information on all environmentally significant features of the atmosphere, oceans, and land surfaces. This information is most effectively gathered by airborne and satellite borne imaging systems. These systems operate at a variety of wavelengths extending from the visual spectrum, through the infrared and into the centimeter wavelengths of the microwave band. A comparison is made of the signal characteristics at these spectrum regions. In particular, the ability of microwave radiometric imaging to augment visual and infrared imaging is discussed. Recent developments in electronically scanned microwave radiometric sensors are described, together with methods of optimizing microwave data display. Results achieved with integrated display systems for both microwave and optical data are presented, together with projections for future applications.-

Pascalar, H. G.↗

NASA NTRS1973

Radiation measurements from polar and geosynchronous satellites

During the 1960's, radiation budget measurements from satellites have allowed quantitative study of the global energetics of our atmosphere-ocean system. A continuing program is planned, including independent measurement of the solar constant. Thus far, the measurements returned from two basically different types of satellite experiments are in agreement on the long term global scales where they are most comparable. This fact, together with independent estimates of the accuracy of measurement from each system, shows that the energy exchange between earth and space is now measured better than it can be calculated. Examples of application of the radiation budget data were shown. They can be related to the age-old problem of climate change, to the basic question of the thermal forcing of our circulation systems, and to the contemporary problems of local area energetics and computer modeling of the atmosphere.

Vonderhaar, T. H.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Earth observations from space

The present state of satellites designed for earth observations is reviewed. Particular attention is given to operational meteorological satellites, experimental atmosphere and ocean satellites, and earth resources satellites. Examples of applications resulting from satellite earth observations are discussed. It is concluded that earth observations from space have greatly advanced man's understanding of atmospheric, oceanic, and geological processes, opening the way to a large number of viable applications.

Nordberg, W.↗

NASA NTRS1976

On the observed annual cycle in the ocean-atmosphere heat balance over the Northern Hemisphere

Based on the best presently available satellite radiation, atmospheric and oceanic data sets, the long-term mean heat balance of the earth and its normal seasonal variation are investigated over the Northern Hemisphere. Quantitative estimates for the various flux and storage terms in the atmospheric and terrestrial branches of the heat balance are given for 10-deg-wide latitude belts and for each calendar month. The results are presented in both graphical and tabular form. As was known before, the storage of heat in the oceans is found to dominate the energy storage in the combined atmosphere-ocean-land-cryosphere system. In the tropics, large changes in oceanic heat storage are found in the 10 N-20 N belt with a maximum in spring and a minimum in late summer. The main new finding of this study is that the inferred oceanic heat transports appear to undergo very large seasonal variations especially in the tropics.

Oort, A. H.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Sensing the earth's environment from space - User needs and technology opportunities

Results of a number of studies involving industry, universities and government agencies working in concert to identify specific measurement and data needs in the field of satellite remote sensing are discussed. Comparisons are made with existing sensor capabilities and with the trends in the supporting technology. A series of tables is presented describing, among other things, user subcommittees using remote sensing data, atmosphere, ocean, land and cryosphere measurement needs and funded capabilities, and the capability status of such sensors as passive and active microwave sensors, visible and IR radiometers and laser sensors.

Nagler, R. G.↗

NASA NTRS1981

The role of pilots

The need for detailed specifications is addressed. Candidates for standardization include hardware interfaces, communication protocols, and data exchange services. Atmosphere, Ocean, and Resource pilot programs, utilization of current techniques and technologies in the use and exchange of data and to facilitate access to data are discussed. Pilot objectives aim to: (1) demonstrate the use of advanced technologies, (2) provide a test bed environment for data handling technique evaluation, (3) evolve requirements and capabilities, and (4) document validated methodologies as standards and guidelines for data systems planning use. A user oriented catalog system, data set management, a network communication system, and a user interface are also discussed.

Gary, J. P.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Active cavity radiometer

The active cavity radiometer (ACR) experiment on the Spacelab 1 mission to measure the total solar irradiance is discussed. Short and long term variations in the total solar output of optical energy are studied. Solar total irradiance observation provides information on the solar cycle and other long term trends in solar output that are of climatological significance as well as short term solar physics phenomena. The interaction of solar radiation with the Earth's atmosphere, oceans, and land masses provides the primary driving forces for the formation of weather systems and the determination of climate. Astrophysical measurements determine the total energy flux. The principal role of the ACR observations support extended solar irradiance experiments on free flying satellites. Solar irradiance measurements are important in the establishment of the radiation scale at the solar total flux level in the international system of units (SI).

Willson, R. C.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Global changes: Impacts on habitability. A scientific basis for assessment

The feasibility of a major NASA research initiative to document, to understand, and if possible, to predict long-term (5 to 50 years) global changes that can affect the habitability of the Earth is addressed. The major factor contributing to change is human activity. The program discussed involves studies of the atmosphere, oceans, land, the cryosphere, and the biosphere. On decadal time scales, these regimes and the cycles of physical and chemical entities through them are coupled into a single interlocking system. Some part of this system can be studied in a straightforward manner (the atmosphere) and some with great difficulty (the biosphere).

Goody, R.↗

NASA NTRS1982

The faint young sun-climate paradox - Continental influences

We examine the various mechanisms which have been proposed to compensate for the climatic effects of a 30% increase in the solar luminosity over the past 4 1/2 billion years. Although atmospheric greenhouse effects have received most attention, other mechanisms may have played a role of comparable importance. In particular, we note that the development of continents during the past 2 1/2 billion years could have had a significant secular effect on the atmosphere-ocean heat transport system. As a result, past climates may have been less susceptible to complete freeze-over. A simple energy balance model is used to demonstrate the magnitude of this effect. Because the CO2 greenhouse effect is not the only means of compensating for solar evolution, the faint-young-sun problem should not be used to infer past levels of atmospheric CO2.

Endal, A. S.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Climate in Earth history

Complex atmosphere-ocean-land interactions govern the climate system and its variations. During the course of Earth history, nature has performed a large number of experiments involving climatic change; the geologic record contains much information regarding these experiments. This information should result in an increased understanding of the climate system, including climatic stability and factors that perturb climate. In addition, the paleoclimatic record has been demonstrated to be useful in interpreting the origin of important resources-petroleum, natural gas, coal, phosphate deposits, and many others.

Berger, W. H.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

High-Resolution Global Ocean Simulation in the SWOT ERA: Introducing ECCO Llc4320v2

The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission is opening up new opportunities to evaluate and drive improvement in km-scale global ocean and atmosphere-ocean models via its simultaneous swath observations of sea-surface height, wind speed, and significant wave height down to 2 km scales globally. Motivated by this, we have initiated a collaborative effort at NASA Ames to run a new global ocean-sea-ice simulation in MITgcm at a nominal 1/48-deg resolution of the year 2023 that enables direct comparisons with SWOT observations. New features relative to a prior simulation at a similar resolution of the year 2012 include much more realistic tidal forcing, thermodynamic coupling in ice-shelf cavities, high-frequency hourly atmospheric forcing, much improved river runoff, double the vertical resolution in the deep ocean (173 vs 90 levels), updated bathymetry including improvements in finescale bathymetry derived from SWOT, and updated vertical mixing scheme parameters that improve the equatorial Pacific circulation.

ECCO↗

DOE OSTI2025

Environmental Conditions Affecting Global Mesoscale Convective System Occurrence

Abstract The ERA5 environments of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), tracked from satellite observations, are assessed over a 20-yr period. The use of a large set of MCS tracks allows us to robustly test the sensitivity of the results to factors such as region, latitude, and diurnal cycle. We aim to provide novel information on environments of observed MCSs for assessments of global atmospheric models and to improve their ability to simulate MCSs. Statistical analysis of all tracked MCSs is performed in two complementary ways. First, we investigate the environments when an MCS has occurred at different spatial scales before and after MCS formation. Several environmental variables are found to show marked changes before MCS initiation, particularly over land. The vertically integrated moisture flux convergence shows a robust signal across different regions and when considering MCS initiation diurnal cycle. We also found spatial scale dependence of the environments between 200 and 500 km, providing new evidence of a natural length scale for use with MCS parameterization. In the second analysis, the likelihood of MCS occurrence for given environmental conditions is evaluated, by considering all environments and determining the probability of being in an MCS core or shield region. These are compared to analogous non-MCS environments, allowing discrimination between conditions suitable for MCS and non-MCS occurrence. Three environmental variables are found to be useful predictors of MCS occurrence: total column water vapor, midlevel relative humidity, and total column moisture flux convergence. Such relations could be used as trigger conditions for the parameterization of MCSs, thereby strengthening the dependence of the MCS scheme on the environment. Significance Statement Large storm systems called mesoscale convective systems form across Earth. These are collections of thunderstorms, with associated high-level clouds that produce substantial, lighter rainfall and modulate Earth’s energy balance. They produce hazardous weather conditions, such as floods and high winds, and are responsible for a high percentage of rainfall in many regions globally. We investigate the environmental conditions under which they form, so that we can understand the spatial extent of the environment which is important for their formation, and also where and when the effects of these storms might be felt. The novel information generated here should help improve the representation of these storms in weather and climate models, improving the prediction of rainfall, thunderclouds, and high-level clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Changes in the Regional Water Cycle and Their Impact on Societies

ABSTRACT Changes in “blue water”, which is the total supply of fresh water available for human extraction over land, are quite closely related to changes in runoff or equivalently precipitation minus evaporation, . This article examines how climate change‐driven recent past and future changes in the regional water cycle relate to blue water availability and changes in human blue water demand. Although at the largest scales theoretical and numerical model predictions are in broad agreement with observations, at continental scales and below models predict large ranges of possible future and runoff especially at the scale of individual river catchments and for shorter timescale subseasonal floods and droughts. Nevertheless, it is expected that the occurrence and severity of floods will increase and that of droughts may increase, possibly compounded by human‐driven non‐climatic changes such as changes in land use, dam water impoundment, irrigation and extraction of groundwater. Contemporary assessments predict that increases in 21st century human water extraction in many highly‐populated regions are unlikely to be sustainable given projections of future . To reduce uncertainty in future predictions, there is an urgent need to improve modeling of atmospheric, land surface and human processes and how these components are coupled. This should be supported by maintaining the observing network and expanding it to improve measurements of land surface, oceanic and atmospheric variables. This includes the development of satellite observations stable over multiple decades and suitable for building reanalysis datasets appropriate for model evaluation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Impacts of Mean State Ocean Heat Transport on Climate and Its Response to CO 2 Forcing

Simulations of the slab ocean configuration of the coupled Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) were used to isolate the role of poleward ocean heat transport (OHT) in shaping the climate and its response to CO 2 forcing. Imposed changes to mean-state OHT produce compensating changes in atmospheric heat transport (AHT) that are mediated by changes in surface evaporation. A reduction of maximum OHT by 0.56 PW (32%) reduces the global mean surface air temperature by 3.6°C. However, this cooler mean state exhibits 1.2°C more warming under CO 2 quadrupling, with the largest differences occurring at high latitudes. The amplified warming arises from stronger surface albedo and lapse rate feedbacks in polar regions and a shortwave cloud feedback in the southern midlatitudes. These results highlight the critical role of mean-state OHT in modulating mean-state climate, the partitioning between the OHT and AHT, and climate sensitivity.

Atmosphere-ocean-ice interactions↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation’s Response to CO2 Increase: Assessing the Roles of Surface Flux and Oceanic Advection Feedbacks

Abstract The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is projected to slow down in climate models due to greenhouse gas emissions. However, the physical mechanisms determining the rate of the projected AMOC slowdown remain unclear. Accordingly, this study isolates the roles of oceanic advection and surface flux feedbacks that might accelerate or decelerate the AMOC’s weakening using carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) quadrupling simulations in the CESM1.2 model. Surface flux feedbacks are isolated in partially coupled experiments in which either all surface flux components or the momentum flux responses to AMOC’s weakening that might provide feedback are suppressed, while a tracer decomposition of ocean density anomalies isolates the advection feedbacks. Comparing the ocean density components in the experiments shows that the AMOC’s response is initially determined by CO 2 -induced anomalous surface heat fluxes, and afterward, feedbacks determine its response. In the fully coupled case, surface heat flux feedback strongly promotes AMOC slowdown and causes its near shutdown, while a weaker but active AMOC is maintained when the surface flux feedback is inhibited in the partially coupled case. The positive surface heat flux feedback works by canceling out the negative oceanic heat advection feedback on deep-water formation in the subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA). With the heat advection feedback thus reduced, the positive salinity advection feedback becomes the dominant contributor to SPNA density changes and deep-water formation. In the partially coupled case, negative ocean heat advection feedback and the CO 2 -induced subtropical Atlantic saline anomalies imported into the SPNA play a stabilizing role. The results highlight the importance of SPNA salinity gradients and gyre circulation strength in determining the AMOC’s response rate or recovery.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Near Resonance between the Shelf Ocean and Semidiurnal Atmospheric Tidal Winds

This manuscript illustrates the resonance between continental shelf oceans and the semidiurnal atmospheric tidal wind, explaining O(10 −2 ) m semidiurnal sea surface height (SSH) variations in detided datasets. The resonance, similar to amplification of semidiurnal oceanic tides on the gentle and wide shelf, results in pronounced, offshore-attenuated standing waves on the shelf which is driven by the cross-shore pressure gradient force, Coriolis force, and the rotary wind stress. Observations and numerical results from the Texas–Louisiana shelf confirm this mechanism, where a significant presence of the semidiurnal tidal wind couples with O(10 −1 ) m s −1 ocean currents, influencing SSH distribution and sustaining the wave structure. The consistency of the interaction and momentum budgets with the analytical solution suggests the robustness of the semidiurnal atmospheric tidal wind interacting with the shelf ocean. Notably, these findings suggest that similar resonances could occur on other gentle shelves known for enhancing semidiurnal oceanic tides and contribute 3%–10% of the wind work.

Atmosphere-ocean interaction↗