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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2015

Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled Model Simulations of Precipitation in the Central Andes

The meridional extent and complex orography of the South American continent contributes to a wide diversity of climate regimes ranging from hyper-arid deserts to tropical rainforests to sub-polar highland regions. In addition, South American meteorology and climate are also made further complicated by ENSO, a powerful coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon. Modelling studies in this region have typically resorted to either atmospheric mesoscale or atmosphere-ocean coupled global climate models. The latter offers full physics and high spatial resolution, but it is computationally inefficient typically lack an interactive ocean, whereas the former offers high computational efficiency and ocean-atmosphere coupling, but it lacks adequate spatial and temporal resolution to adequate resolve the complex orography and explicitly simulate precipitation. Explicit simulation of precipitation is vital in the Central Andes where rainfall rates are light (0.5-5 mm hr-1), there is strong seasonality, and most precipitation is associated with weak mesoscale-organized convection. Recent increases in both computational power and model development have led to the advent of coupled ocean-atmosphere mesoscale models for both weather and climate study applications. These modelling systems, while computationally expensive, include two-way ocean-atmosphere coupling, high resolution, and explicit simulation of precipitation. In this study, we use the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST), a fully-coupled mesoscale atmosphere-ocean modeling system. Previous work has shown COAWST to reasonably simulate the entire 2003-2004 wet season (Dec-Feb) as validated against both satellite and model analysis data when ECMWF interim analysis data were used for boundary conditions on a 27-9-km grid configuration (Outer grid extent: 60.4S to 17.7N and 118.6W to 17.4W).

Regional Climate Model↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Land Ice Representation in the NASA Goddard Seasonal Forecasting System

Models used in seasonal forecasting systems have aimed for a level of sophistication comparable to Earth system models by incorporating complex physical processes, including those relevant to the polar regions. Here, we examine the polar surface climate in version 3 of the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Sub-seasonal to Seasonal prediction system (GEOS S2S v3). The model is composed of the ⅟₂̊ resolution Jason4.0version of the GEOS AGCM and the MOM5 ocean model at ⅟₄̊ resolution. The GEOSS2S model incorporates interactive aerosols and two-moment cloud microphysics. As compared to version 2, the model incorporates improved radiative transfer and are designed diurnal cycle atmosphere-ocean interface layer. This study aims to understand how the version 3 model compares with version 2, and with contemporary Earth system models.

Richard I Cullather↗
NASA NTRS2014

The Effects of Interactive Stratospheric Chemistry on Antarctic and Southern Ocean Climate Change in an AOGCM

Stratospheric ozone depletion has played a dominant role in driving Antarctic climate change in the last decades. In order to capture the stratospheric ozone forcing, many coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) prescribe the Antarctic ozone hole using monthly and zonally averaged ozone field. However, the prescribed ozone hole has a high ozone bias and lacks zonal asymmetry. The impacts of these biases on model simulations, particularly on Southern Ocean and the Antarctic sea ice, are not well understood. The purpose of this study is to determine the effects of using interactive stratospheric chemistry instead of prescribed ozone on Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate change in an AOGCM. We compare two sets of ensemble simulations for the 1960-2010 period using different versions of the Goddard Earth Observing System 5 - AOGCM: one with interactive stratospheric chemistry, and the other with prescribed monthly and zonally averaged ozone and 6 other stratospheric radiative species calculated from the interactive chemistry simulations. Consistent with previous studies using prescribed sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations, the interactive chemistry runs simulate a deeper Antarctic ozone hole and consistently larger changes in surface pressure and winds than the prescribed ozone runs. The use of a coupled atmosphere-ocean model in this study enables us to determine the impact of these surface changes on Southern Ocean circulation and Antarctic sea ice. The larger surface wind trends in the interactive chemistry case lead to larger Southern Ocean circulation trends with stronger changes in northerly and westerly surface flow near the Antarctica continent and stronger upwelling near 60S. Using interactive chemistry also simulates a larger decrease of sea ice concentrations. Our results highlight the importance of using interactive chemistry in order to correctly capture the influences of stratospheric ozone depletion on climate change over Antarctic and the Southern Ocean.

Antarctic climate change↗
NASA NTRS1985

A theory for El Nino and the Southern Oscillation

A coupled atmosphere-ocean model is presented for El Nino and the Southern Oscillation that reproduces its major features, including its recurrence at irregular intervals. The interannual El Nino-Southern Oscillation cycle is maintained by deterministic interactions in the tropical Pacific region. Ocean dynamics alter sea-surface temperature, changing the atmospheric heating; the resulting changes in surface wind alter the ocean dynamics. Annually varying mean conditions largely determine the spatial pattern and temporal evolution of El Nino events.

Cane, M. A.↗
NASA NTRS1988

A study of the dynamics of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in a symmetric atmosphere-ocean model

A numerical model of the circulation of a coupled axisymmetric atmosphere-ocean system was constructed to investigate the physical factors governing the location and intensity of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) over oceans and over land. The results of several numerical integrations are presented to illustrate the interaction of the individual atmospheric and oceanic circulations. It is shown that the ITCA cannot be located at the equator because the atmosphere-ocean system is unstable for lateral displacements of the ITCA from an equilibrium position at the equator.

Charney, J. G.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Impacts of Atmosphere-Ocean Coupling on Southern Hemisphere Climate Change

Climate in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) has undergone significant changes in recent decades. These changes are closely linked to the shift of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) towards its positive polarity, which is driven primarily by Antarctic ozone depletion. There is growing evidence that Antarctic ozone depletion has significant impacts on Southern Ocean circulation change. However, it is poorly understood whether and how ocean feedback might impact the SAM and climate change in the SH atmosphere. This outstanding science question is investigated using the Goddard Earth Observing System Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Chemistry Climate Model(GEOS-AOCCM).We perform ensemble simulations of the recent past (1960-2010) with and without the interactive ocean. For simulations without the interactive ocean, we use sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations produced by the interactive ocean simulations. The differences between these two ensemble simulations quantify the effects of atmosphere-ocean coupling. We will investigate the impacts of atmosphere-ocean coupling on stratospheric processes such as Antarctic ozone depletion and Antarctic polar vortex breakup. We will address whether ocean feedback affects Rossby wave generation in the troposphere and wave propagation into the stratosphere. Another focuson this study is to assess how ocean feedback might affect the tropospheric SAM response to Antarctic ozone depletion

Chemistry-Climate Modeling↗
NASA NTRS1976

Remote sensing of chlorophyll in an atmosphere-ocean environment - A theoretical study

A Monte Carlo program was written to compute the effect of chlorophyll on the ratio of upwelling to downwelling radiance and irradiance as a function of wavelength, height above the ocean, and depth within the ocean. This program simulates the actual physical situation, since a real atmospheric model was used, i.e., one that contained both aerosol and Rayleigh scattering as well as ozone absorption. The complete interaction of the radiation field with the ocean was also taken into account. The chlorophyll was assumed to be uniformly mixed in the ocean and was also assumed to act only as an absorbing agent. For the ocean model both scattering and absorption by hydrosols was included. Results have been obtained for both a very clear ocean and a medium turbid ocean. Recommendations are made for optimum techniques for remotely sensing chlorophyll both in situ and in vitro.

Kattawar, G. W.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Southern Ocean Response to NADW Changes

The possibility of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) changes in both past and future climates has raised the issue of how the Southern Ocean would respond. Recent experiments with the GISS coupled atmosphere-ocean model have shown that a "bipolar see-saw" between NADW production and Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) production in the Weddell Sea can occur in conjunction with freshening of the North Atlantic. However, this effect operates not through a slow ocean response but via a rapid atmospheric mechanism. As NADW reduces, colder temperatures in the North Atlantic, and Northern Hemisphere in general, are associated with higher surface pressure (increased atmospheric mass). Reduced mass in the Southern Hemisphere occurs in response, with lower pressure over the South Pole (an EOF #1 effect, the "high phase" of the Antarctic Oscillation).The lower pressure is associated with stronger west winds that generate an intensified Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), which leads to longitudinal heat divergence in the South Atlantic (and heat convergence in the Southern Indian Ocean). Colder temperatures in the Weddell Sea region lead to sea ice growth, increased salinity and surface water density, and greater Weddell Sea Bottom Water production. Increased poleward transport of heat occurs in the South Atlantic in conjunction with increased bottom water production, but its convergence at high latitudes is not sufficient to offset the longitudinal heat divergence due to the intensified ACC. The colder temperatures at high latitudes in the South Atlantic increase the latitudinal temperature gradient, baroclinic instability, eddy energy and eddy poleward transport of momentum, helping to maintain the lower pressure over the pole in an interactive manner. The heat flux convergence in the Indian Ocean provides a warming tendency in that region, and overall global production of AABW remains unchanged. These results have implications for the interpretation of the ice core records of the last deglaciation, but may also be relevant for changes during the Holocene and perhaps even in response to increased CO2 forcing,

Rind, David↗
NASA NTRS2001

Interannual Variability, Global Teleconnection, and Potential Predictability Associated with the Asian Summer Monsoon

In this Chapter, aspects of global teleconnections associated with the interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) are discussed. The basic differences in the basic dynamics of the South Asian Monsoon and the East Asian monsoon, and their implications on global linkages are discussed. Two teleconnection modes linking ASM variability to summertime precipitation over the continental North America were identified. These modes link regional circulation and precipitation anomalies over East Asia and continental North America, via coupled atmosphere-ocean variations over the North Pacific. The first mode has a large zonally symmetrical component and appears to be associated with subtropical jetstream variability and the second mode with Rossby wave dispersion. Both modes possess strong sea surface temperature (SST) expressions in the North Pacific. Results show that the two teleconnection modes may have its origin in intrinsic modes of sea surface temperature variability in the extratropical oceans, which are forced in part by atmospheric variability and in part by air-sea interaction. The potential predictability of the ASM associated with SST variability in different ocean basins is explored using a new canonical ensemble correlation prediction scheme. It is found that SST anomalies in tropical Pacific, i.e., El Nino, is the most dominant forcing for the ASM, especially over the maritime continent and eastern Australia. SST anomalies in the India Ocean may trump the influence from El Nino in western Australia and western maritime continent. Both El Nino, and North Pacific SSTs contribute to monsoon precipitation anomalies over Japan, southern Korea, northern and central China. By optimizing SST variability signals from the world ocean basins using CEC, the overall predictability of ASM can be substantially improved.

Lau, K. M.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Interaction of the Climate System and the Solid Earth: Analysis of Observations and Models

Under SENH funding we have carried out a number of diverse analyses of interactions of the climate system (atmosphere, ocean, land surface hydrology) with the solid Earth. While the original work plan emphasized analysis of excitation of variations in Earth rotation, with a lesser emphasis on time variable gravity, opportunities that developed during the proposal period in connection with preparations for the GRACE mission led us to a more balanced effort between these two topics. The results of our research are outlined in several topical sections: (1) oceanic excitation of variations in Earth rotation; (2) short period atmosphere-ocean excitation of variations in Earth rotation; (3) analysis of coupled climate system simulation; (4) observing system simulation studies for GRACE mission design; and (5) oceanic response to atmospheric pressure loading.

Bryan, Frank↗
NASA NTRS2002

The Sun's Impact on Climate

We provide an overview of the impact of the Sun on the Earth atmosphere and climate system, focused on heating of Earth's atmosphere and oceans. We emphasize the importance of the spectral measurements of SIM and SOLSTICE- that we must know how solar variations are distributed over ultraviolet, visible, and infrared wavelengths, since these have separate characteristic influences on Earth's ozone layer, clouds, and upper layers of the oceans. Emphasis is also given to understanding both direct and indirect influences of the Sun on the Earth, which involve feedbacks between Earth's stratosphere, troposphere, and oceans, each with unique time scales, dynamics, chemistry, and biology, interacting non-linearly. Especially crucial is the role of all three phases of water on Earth, water vapor being the primary greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, the importance of trace gases such as CO2 arising from their absorption in the "water vapor window" at 800 - 1250/cm (12.5 to 8 microns). Melting of polar ice is one major response to the post-industrial global warming, enhanced due to "ice-albedo" feedback. Finally, water in liquid form has a major influence due to cloud albedo feedback, and also due to the oceans' absorption of solar radiation, particularly at visible wavelengths, through the visible "liquid water window" that allows penetration of visible light deep into the mixed layer, while nearby ultraviolet and infrared wavelengths do not penetrate past the upper centimeter ocean surface skin layer. A large fraction of solar energy absorbed by the oceans goes into the latent heat of evaporation. Thus the solar heating of the atmosphere-ocean system is strongly coupled through the water cycle of evaporation, cloud formation, precipitation, surface runoff and ice formation, to Earth's energy budget and climate, each different climate component responding to variations in different solar spectral bands, at ultraviolet, visible and infrared wavelengths.

Cahalan, Robert↗
NASA NTRS2010

Investigation of Surface Flux Feedbacks for Coupled and Uncoupled Atmosphere-Ocean Anomalies

Variability in the atmosphere and ocean are linked through coupled processes via the surface exchanges of heat, moisture, and momentum. This coupling can occur predominantly via one-way (ocean forcing atmosphere or atmosphere forcing ocean) or two-way interactions. The dominant type of interaction can vary both regionally and with season. The existence of the coupled variability can act to enhance the persistence of anomalies and therefore may be important to seasonal (and longer) forecasts. The leading components of surface exchange that regulate the damping of the atmospheric and oceanic anomalies most likely also varies regionally and seasonally. This study seeks to elucidate the roles of the various surface flux components using satellite based data sets. Using dynamical relationships expected for one-way forcing regimes, coupled and uncoupled variability is isolated and used in conjunction with composite-type analyses to reveal the nature of these coupling mechanisms and their variation in space and time. Results of this study can be useful in examining the veracity of general circulation model output by understanding how the coupling mechanisms are replicated as found in satellite based observations.

Roberts, J. Brent↗
NASA NTRS2018

GEOS S2S-2_1 File Specification: GMAO Seasonal and Sub-Seasonal Forecast Output

The NASA GMAO seasonal (9 months) and subseasonal (45 days) forecasts are produced with the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model and Data Assimilation System Version S2S-2_1. The new system replaces version S2S-1.0 described in Borovikov et al (2017), and includes upgrades to many components of the system. The atmospheric model includes an upgrade from a pre-MERRA-2 version running on a latitude-longitude grid at approx. 1 degree resolution to a current version running on a cubed sphere grid at approximately 1/2 degree resolution. The important developments are related to the dynamical core (Putman et al., 2011), the moist physics (''two-moment microphysics'' of Barahona et al., 2014) and the cryosphere (Cullather et al., 2014). As in the previous GMAO S2S system, the land model is that of Koster et al (2000). GMAO S2S-2_1 now includes the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART, Colarco et al., 2010) single moment interactive aerosol model that includes predictive aerosols including dust, sea salt and several species of carbon and sulfate. The previous version of GMAO S2S specified aerosol amounts from climatology, which were used to inform the atmospheric radiation only. The ocean model includes an upgrade from MOM4 to MOM5 (Griffies 2012), and continues to be run on the tripolar grid at approximately 1/2 degree resolution in the tropics with 40 vertical levels. As in S2S-1.0, the sea ice model is from the Los Alamos Sea Ice model (CICE4, Hunke and Lipscomb 2010). The Ocean Data Assimilation System (ODAS) has been upgraded from the one described in Borovikov et al., 2017 to one that uses a modified version of the Penny, 2014 Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF), and now assimilates along-track altimetry. The ODAS also does a nudging to MERRA-2 SST and sea ice boundary conditions. The atmospheric data assimilation fields used to constrain the atmosphere in the ODAS have been upgraded from MERRA to a MERRA-2 like system. The system is initialized using a MERRA-2-like atmospheric reanalysis (Gelaro et al. 2017) and the GMAO S2S-2_1 ocean analysis. Additional ensemble members for forecasts are produced with initial states at 5-day intervals, with additional members based on perturbations of the atmospheric and ocean states. Both subseasonal and seasonal forecasts are submitted to the National MultiModel Ensemble (NMME) project, and are part of the US/Canada multimodel seasonal forecasts (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/). A large suite of retrospective forecasts (''hindcasts'') have been completed, and contribute to the calculation of the model's baseline climatology and drift, anomalies from which are the basis of the seasonal forecasts.

Seasonal Forecast↗
NASA NTRS2018

Development of the GEOS-MIT gcm Atmosphere-Ocean Model for Coupled Data Assimilation

During the last two plus decades, The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) and Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) modeling groups have developed, respectively, atmosphere-only and ocean-only global general circulation models. These two models (GEOS and MIT-GCM (General Circulation Model)) have demonstrated their data assimilation capabilities with the recent releases of the Modern Era Reanalysis for Research Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) atmospheric reanalysis and the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, Version 4 (ECCO-v4) ocean (and sea ice) state estimate. Independently, the two modeling groups have also produced global atmosphere-only and ocean-only simulations with km-scale grid spacing which proved invaluable for process studies and for the development of satellite and in-situ sampling strategies. Recently, a new effort has been made to couple these two models and to leverage their data-assimilation and high resolution capabilities (i.e., eddy-permitting ocean, cloud-permitting atmosphere). The focus in the model development is put on sub-seasonal to decadal time scales. In this talk, I discuss the new coupled model and present some first coupled simulation results. This will include a high-resolution coupled GEOS-MIT simulation, whereby we have coupled a cubed-sphere-720 (approximately 1/8 degrees) configuration of the GEOS atmosphere to a latitude-longitude-cap-1080 (approximately 1/12 degrees) configuration of the MIT ocean. We compare near-surface diagnostics of this fully coupled ocean-atmosphere set-up to equivalent atmosphere-only and ocean-only simulations. In the comparisons we focus in particular on the differences in air-sea interactions between sea surface temperature (SST) and wind for the coupled and uncoupled simulations.

Strobach, Ehud↗
NASA NTRS2018

The Development of the New GEOS-MITgcm Atmosphere-Ocean Model for Coupled Data Assimilation System

During the last two plus decades, The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) and Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) modeling groups have developed, respectively, atmosphere-only and ocean-only global general circulation models. These two models (GEOS and MITgcm) have demonstrated their data assimilation capabilities with the recent releases of the Modern Era Reanalysis for Research Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) atmospheric reanalysis and the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, Version 4 (ECCO-v4) ocean (and sea ice) state estimate. Independently, the two modeling groups have also produced global atmosphere-only and ocean-only simulations with km-scale grid spacing which proved invaluable for process studies and for the development of satellite and in-situ sampling strategies.Recently, a new effort has been made to couple these two models and to leverage their data-assimilation and high resolution capabilities (i.e., eddy-permitting ocean, cloud-permitting atmosphere). The focus in the model development is put on sub-seasonal to decadal time scales. In this talk, I discuss the new coupled model and present some first coupled simulation results. This will include a high-resolution coupled GEOS-MIT simulation, whereby we have coupled a cubed-sphere-720 (~ 1/8 deg) configuration of the GEOS atmosphere to a lat-lon-cap-1080 (~ 1/12 deg) configuration of the MIT ocean. We compare near-surface diagnostics of this fully coupled ocean-atmosphere set-up to equivalent atmosphere-only and ocean-only simulations. In the comparisons we focus in particular on the differences in air-sea interactions between sea surface temperature (SST) and wind for the coupled and uncoupled simulations.

Strobach, Ehud↗
NASA NTRS2018

The Development of the New GEOS-MITgcm Atmosphere-Ocean Model for Coupled Data Assimilation System

During the last two plus decades, The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) and Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) modeling groups have developed, respectively, atmosphere-only and ocean-only global general circulation models. These two models (GEOS and MITgcm) have demonstrated their data assimilation capabilities with the recent releases of the Modern Era Reanalysis for Research Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) atmospheric reanalysis and the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, Version 4 (ECCO-v4) ocean (and sea ice) state estimate. Independently, the two modeling groups have also produced global atmosphere-only and ocean-only simulations with km-scale grid spacing which proved invaluable for process studies and for the development of satellite and in-situ sampling strategies.Recently, a new effort has been made to couple these two models and to leverage their data-assimilation and high resolution capabilities (i.e., eddy-permitting ocean, cloud-permitting atmosphere). The focus in the model development is put on sub-seasonal to decadal time scales. In this talk, I discuss the new coupled model and present some first coupled simulation results. This will include a high-resolution coupled GEOS-MIT simulation, whereby we have coupled a cubed-sphere-720 (~ 1/8°) configuration of the GEOS atmosphere to a lat-lon-cap-1080 (~ 1/12°) configuration of the MIT ocean. We compare near-surface diagnostics of this fully coupled ocean-atmosphere set-up to equivalent atmosphere-only and ocean-only simulations. In the comparisons we focus in particular on the differences in air-sea interactions between sea surface temperature (SST) and wind for the coupled and uncoupled simulations.

Strobach, Ehud↗
NASA NTRS2018

Toward Integrated Seasonal Predictions of Land and Ocean Carbon Flux: Lessons from the 2015-16 El Nino

Seasonal forecasts made by coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) are increasingly able to provide skillful forecasts of climate anomalies. At some centers, the capabilities of these models are being expanded to represent carbon-climate feedbacks including ocean biogeochemistry (OB), terrestrial biosphere (TB) interactions, and fires. These advances raise the question of whether such models can support skillful forecasts of carbon fluxes.Here, we examine whether land and ocean carbon flux anomalies associated with the 2015-16 El Nino could have been predicted months in advance. This El Nino was noteworthy for the magnitude of the ocean temperature perturbation, the skill with which this perturbation was predicted, and the extensive satellite observations that can be used to track its impact. We explore this topic using NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model, which routinely produces an ensemble of seasonal climate forecasts, and a suite of offline dynamical and statistical models that estimate carbon flux processes. Using GEOS forecast fields from 2015-16 to force flux model hindcasts shows that these models are able to reproduce significant features observed by satellites. Specifically, OB hindcasts are able to predict anomalies in chlorophyll distributions with lead times of 3-4 months. The ability of TB hindcasts to reproduce NDVI anomalies is driven by the skill of the climate forecast, which is greatest at short lead times over tropical landmasses. Statistical fire forecasts driven by ocean climate indices are able to predict burned area in the tropics with lead times of 3-12 months. We also integrate the ocean and land hindcast fluxes into the GEOS GCM to examine the magnitude of the atmospheric carbon dioxide anomaly and compare with satellite and ground-based observations.While seasonal forecasting remains an active area of research, these results demonstrate that forecasts of carbon flux processes can support a variety of applications, potentially allowing scientists to understand carbon-climate feedbacks as they happen and to capitalize on more flexible satellite technologies that allow areas of interest to be targeted with lead times of weeks to months. We also provide a first glimpse at the spring 2019 carbon forecast using the GEOS-based forecasting system.

Ott, L.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Simulation and Analysis of Technology and Operational Procedures to Reduce the Combined Effects of Emissions and Contrails

The development and evaluation of concepts and technology to support future air traffic management systems require a hierarchy of models ranging from real-time simulations to extensive field evaluations. Air traffic simulation models such as Airspace Concept Evaluation System, Center Tracon Automation System, Future Air traffic management Concept Evaluation Tool and others are used to design air traffic systems balancing the conflicting objectives of maximizing safety, meeting future demands for airports and airspace and increase efficiency of traffic flows in the presence of uncertain weather. The impact of aviation emissions and contrails on climate imposes another constraint on the design of aircraft and aviation operations. The understanding of the complex interaction between physical climate system, the carbon and other greenhouse gas emissions and aviation activity can be improved by the development of integrated assessment models that include emission and climate models together with air traffic simulations. The modeling of aircraft emissions and their interaction with each other to change the concentration levels of different gasses in the atmosphere and the resulting impact of the radiative forcing on the equilibrium of the Earth's atmosphere is complex and requires the use of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models together with three-dimensional models of carbon cycle and chemistry of other non-CO2 greenhouse gases. These models are computationally intensive and unsuitable for studies involving the generation of multiple scenarios. Simple emission and climate models, based on the input-output relations of linear systems, capture the fundamental emission to climate impact behavior by careful selection of key variables and their dynamics. The impact of various greenhouse gases depends on the total concentration, effect per unit change in atmospheric concentration and the spatial distribution of the gas. All these quantities are influenced by the lifetime of the gas. The impact of a greenhouse gas depends on the interval of assessment, which may vary from a few decades to a few centuries. Climate metrics are aimed at providing a common scale to compare different greenhouse gases. If the metrics are to be used as a tool in developing and evaluating aviation operations, they should be transparent and easy to apply. Global Warming Potential and Aggregate Global Temperature Potential are some of the commonly used metrics. This paper integrates a national-level air traffic simulation and optimization capability with simple climate models and carbon cycle models, and climate metrics to assess the impact of aviation on climate. The capability brings together metrics, which are useful in aviation operations together with metrics used in climate studies. The capability can be used to make trade-offs between extra fuel cost and reduction in climate impact. There is considerable uncertainty in our understanding of the radiative forcing associated with emissions and contrails. The parameters in the simulation can be used to evaluate the effect of various uncertainties in emission models and contrails. It can also be used to evaluate the impact of different decision horizons. Alternatively, the optimization results from the simulation can be used as inputs to other tools that monetize global climate impacts like the FAA's Aviation Environmental Portfolio Management Tool for Impacts.

impact of aviation on the environment↗