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DOE OSTI2020

Decadal predictability of North Atlantic blocking and the NAO

Can multi-annual variations in the frequency of North Atlantic atmospheric blocking and mid-latitude circulation regimes be skilfully predicted? Recent advances in seasonal forecasting have shown that mid-latitude climate variability does exhibit significant predictability. However, atmospheric predictability has generally been found to be quite limited on multi-annual timescales. New decadal prediction experiments from NCAR are found to exhibit remarkable skill in reproducing the observed multi-annual variations of wintertime blocking frequency over the North Atlantic and of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) itself. This is partly due to the large ensemble size that allows the predictable component of the atmospheric variability to emerge from the background chaotic component. The predictable atmospheric anomalies represent a forced response to oceanic low-frequency variability that strongly resembles the Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability (AMV), correctly reproduced in the decadal hindcasts thanks to realistic ocean initialization and ocean dynamics. The occurrence of blocking in certain areas of the Euro-Atlantic domain determines the concurrent circulation regime and the phase of known teleconnections, such as the NAO, consequently affecting the stormtrack and the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Therefore, skilfully predicting the decadal fluctuations of blocking frequency and the NAO may be used in statistical predictions of near-term climate anomalies, and it provides a strong indication that impactful climate anomalies may also be predictable with improved dynamical models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS1994

Long range forecasts of the Northern Hemisphere anomalies with antecedent sea surface temperature patterns

The contract research has been conducted in the following three major areas: analysis of numerical simulations and parallel observations of atmospheric blocking, diagnosis of the lower boundary heating and the response of the atmospheric circulation, and comprehensive assessment of long-range forecasting with numerical and regression methods. The essential scientific and developmental purpose of this contract research is to extend our capability of numerical weather forecasting by the comprehensive general circulation model. The systematic work as listed above is thus geared to developing a technological basis for future NASA long-range forecasting.

Kung, Ernest C.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Impacts of Snow Darkening Effects by Light Absorbing Aerosols on Hydroclimate of Eurasia During Boreal Spring and Summer

In this study, we used the NASA GEOS-5 climate model to investigate the impact of snow darkening by light-absorbing aerosols on the hydro-climate if Eurasia during boreal spring and summer. Two sets of 10-member ensemble model integrations with prescribed sea surface temperature were carried out for 10 simulated years (2002-2011); one includes snow-darkening effects (SDE) by light-absorbing aerosols, and one does not (NSDE). Differences between the two experiments in the hydro-climates over Eurasia were evaluated. Results show that SDE warming is most pronounced during the melting season due to strong snow-albedo feedback in the vicinity of the retreating seasonal snowline. SDE spurs a Wet-First-Dry-Later (WFDL) modulation of the surface energy and water balances, characterized by an accelerated (days-to-weeks) snowmelt along with excessive runoff and a warming and wetting of the land during the early part of the melting season. The fast snowmelt is followed by a prolonged (> months) warming and desiccation of the land, stemming from a deficit of late-season snowmelt water and increased surface evaporation. The prolonged warming and drying of the land atmosphere system persist through the summer, sustained by atmospheric conditions favorable for the development of atmospheric blocking, i.e., higher mid-to-upper tropospheric geopotential height, lower relative humidity, reduced cloudiness and enhanced atmospheric subsidence. Overall, SDE by light absorbing aerosols leads to a warmer and drier boreal summer hydro-climate, increasing the frequency of the top 5% and 1% extreme hot days (as defined by NSDE statistics) over western and northern Eurasia by approximately three-fold and tenfold, respectively.

Snow darkening↗

DOE OSTI2023

GEFSv12 High- and Low-Skill Day-10 Tornado Forecasts

Abstract On average, modern numerical weather prediction forecasts for daily tornado frequency exhibit no skill beyond day 10. However, in this extended-range lead window, there are particular model cycles that have exceptionally high forecast skill for tornadoes because of their ability to correctly simulate the future synoptic pattern. Here, model initial conditions that produced a more skillful forecast for tornadoes over the United States were exploited while also highlighting potential causes for low-skill cycles within the Global Ensemble Forecasting System, version 12 (GEFSv12). There were 88 high-skill and 91 low-skill forecasts in which the verifying day-10 synoptic pattern for tornado conditions revealed a western U.S. thermal trough and an eastern U.S. thermal ridge, a favorable configuration for tornadic storm occurrence. Initial conditions for high skill forecasts tended to exhibit warmer sea surface temperatures throughout the tropical Pacific Ocean and Gulf of Mexico, an active Madden–Julian oscillation, and significant modulation of Earth-relative atmospheric angular momentum. Low-skill forecasts were often initialized during La Niña and negative Pacific decadal oscillation conditions. Significant atmospheric blocking over eastern Russia—in which the GEFSv12 overforecast the duration and characteristics of the downstream flow—was a common physical process associated with low-skill forecasts. This work helps to increase our understanding of the common causes of high- or low-skill extended-range tornado forecasts and could serve as a helpful tool for operational forecasters. Significance Statement This research provides a framework for the anticipation of a more (or less) skillful 10-day tornado forecast in an operational numerical weather prediction system. High-skill forecasts were associated with substantial tropical convection and warm sea surface temperature throughout the Pacific Ocean and Gulf of Mexico, whereas the underlying cause of low-skill forecasts were typically associated with a blocking anticyclone over eastern Russia. These findings are important because they permit increased or decreased confidence in a long-range forecast of tornado occurrence based on a dynamical prediction system.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2021

Afterpulse correction for micro-pulse lidar to improve middle and upper tropospheric aerosol measurements

Micro-pulse lidar (MPL) measurements have been widely used in atmospheric research over the past few decades. However, the MPL afterpulse noise has a large impact on the MPL aerosol measurement in the middle and upper troposphere, and an effective correction method is still lacking. Here, a new afterpulse correction approach is presented by using measurements with low-level optically thick clouds to act as the lids blocking atmospheric signals beyond the clouds completely. Examples are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of this correction method. Using one-year 2014 MPL measurements at the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) North Slope of Alaska (NSA) site, the impact of the correction on the aerosol measurements is quantified. The relative error (RE, %) of attenuated backscattering ratio (ABR) without the afterpulse correction is 30% and 190% at the height of 1.00 km and 9.00 km (AGL), and the RE is larger for weaker aerosol signals (ABR<2). The RE of linear depolarization ratio (LDR), which is significantly higher than that of ABR for a given aerosol layer, is highly non-linear above 3.00 km, with a value of 300%-900% for weak aerosols (ABR<2) above 3.00 km. Therefore, the afterpulse correction is critical for the middle and upper tropospheric aerosol observations. We demonstrated that our afterpulse correction can provide reasonable particle depolarization ratio (PDR) to properly identify dust aerosols. The newly developed method can be applied to long-term MPL measurements to support aerosol and mixed-phase/ice cloud interaction study at the NSA site.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Extraordinary March 2022 East Antarctica “Heat” Wave. Part I: Observations and Meteorological Drivers

Abstract Between 15 and 19 March 2022, East Antarctica experienced an exceptional heat wave with widespread 30°–40°C temperature anomalies across the ice sheet. This record-shattering event saw numerous monthly temperature records being broken including a new all-time temperature record of −9.4°C on 18 March at Concordia Station despite March typically being a transition month to the Antarctic coreless winter. The driver for these temperature extremes was an intense atmospheric river advecting subtropical/midlatitude heat and moisture deep into the Antarctic interior. The scope of the temperature records spurred a large, diverse collaborative effort to study the heat wave’s meteorological drivers, impacts, and historical climate context. Here we focus on describing those temperature records along with the intricate meteorological drivers that led to the most intense atmospheric river observed over East Antarctica. These efforts describe the Rossby wave activity forced from intense tropical convection over the Indian Ocean. This led to an atmospheric river and warm conveyor belt intensification near the coastline, which reinforced atmospheric blocking deep into East Antarctica. The resulting moisture flux and upper-level warm-air advection eroded the typical surface temperature inversions over the ice sheet. At the peak of the heat wave, an area of 3.3 million km 2 in East Antarctica exceeded previous March monthly temperature records. Despite a temperature anomaly return time of about 100 years, a closer recurrence of such an event is possible under future climate projections. In Part II we describe the various impacts this extreme event had on the East Antarctic cryosphere. Significance Statement In March 2022, a heat wave and atmospheric river caused some of the highest temperature anomalies ever observed globally and captured the attention of the Antarctic science community. Using our diverse collective expertise, we explored the causes of the event and have placed it within a historical climate context. One key takeaway is that Antarctic climate extremes are highly sensitive to perturbations in the midlatitudes and subtropics. This heat wave redefined our expectations of the Antarctic climate. Despite the rare chance of occurrence based on past climate, a future temperature extreme event of similar magnitude is possible, especially given anthropogenic climate change.

Wille, Jonathan D.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeling Spatial Asymmetries in Teleconnected Extreme Temperatures

Abstract Combining strengths from deep learning and extreme value theory can help describe complex relationships between variables where extreme events have significant impacts (e.g., environmental or financial applications). Neural networks learn complicated nonlinear relationships from large datasets under limited parametric assumptions. By definition, the number of occurrences of extreme events is small, which limits the ability of the data-hungry, nonparametric neural network to describe rare events. Inspired by recent extreme cold winter weather events in North America caused by atmospheric blocking, we examine several probabilistic generative models for the entire multivariate probability distribution of daily boreal winter surface air temperature. We propose metrics to measure spatial asymmetries, such as long-range anticorrelated patterns that commonly appear in temperature fields during blocking events. Compared to vine copulas, the statistical standard for multivariate copula modeling, deep learning methods show improved ability to reproduce complicated asymmetries in the spatial distribution of ERA5 temperature reanalysis, including the spatial extent of in-sample extreme events.

Krock, Mitchell L.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Interaction of gases with lunar materials

Quantitative efforts to assess the surface properties of lunar fines, particularly water induced porosity are discussed. Data show that: (1) changes induced in lunar fines are not visible in high energy electron micrographs, (2) scanning micrographs show no change in particle size distribution as a result of reaction with water, (3) water induced changes are internal to the particles themselves, (4) normal laboratory atmosphere blocks alteration reaction with water, and (5) surface properties of mature lunar soils appear to be almost independent of chemical composition and mineralogy, but there are some variations in their reactivity toward water.

Holmes, H. F.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Current Scientific Issues in Large Scale Atmospheric Dynamics

Topics in large scale atmospheric dynamics are discussed. Aspects of atmospheric blocking, the influence of transient baroclinic eddies on planetary-scale waves, cyclogenesis, the effects of orography on planetary scale flow, small scale frontal structure, and simulations of gravity waves in frontal zones are discussed.

Miller, T. L.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Kinds of Astronomy-5

Astronomers study light and basically, almost everything we know about the universe has been figured out through the study of light gathered by telescopes on the earth, in the earth's atmosphere, and in space. This light comes in many different colors, the sum of which comprises what is commonly I known as the electromagnetic (EM) spectrum. Unfortunately, the earth's atmosphere blocks almost all of wavelengths in the EM spectrum. Only the visible (400-700 mn) and radio (approx. 1-150 m) "windows" are accessible from the ground, and thus have the longest observational "history." These early restrictions on the observational astronomer also gave rise to classifying "kinds" of astronomy based on their respective EM portion, such as the term "radio astronomy."

Ennico, Kimberly↗

NASA NTRS2013

Northern North Atlantic Sea Surface Height and Ocean Heat Content Variability

The evolution of nearly 20 years of altimetric sea surface height (SSH) is investigated to understand its association with decadal to multidecadal variability of the North Atlantic heat content. Altimetric SSH is dominated by an increase of about 14 cm in the Labrador and Irminger seas from 1993 to 2011, while the opposite has occurred over the Gulf Stream region over the same time period. During the altimeter period the observed 0-700 m ocean heat content (OHC) in the subpolar gyre mirrors the increased SSH by its dominantly positive trend. Over a longer period, 1955-2011, fluctuations in the subpolar OHC reflect Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) and can be attributed to advection driven by the wind stress ''gyre mode'' bringing more subtropical waters into the subpolar gyre. The extended subpolar warming evident in SSH and OHC during the altimeter period represents transition of the AMV from cold to warm phase. In addition to the dominant trend, the first empirical orthogonal function SSH time series shows an abrupt change 2009-2010 reaching a new minimum in 2010. The change coincides with the change in the meridional overturning circulation at 26.5N as observed by the RAPID (Rapid Climate Change) project, and with extreme behavior of the wind stress gyre mode and of atmospheric blocking. While the general relationship between northern warming and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) volume transport remains undetermined, the meridional heat and salt transport carried by AMOC's arteries are rich with decade-to-century timescale variability.

Sea-surface↗

NASA NTRS2020

Anomalous Circulation in July 2019 Resulting in Mass Loss on the Greenland Ice Sheet

Current mass loss on the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) includes a significant contribution from surface runoff. The circumstances associated with melt events are important for understanding the global sea level contribution of the GrIS. In late July 2019, surface melt occurred over 62% of the GrIS, including Summit Station. The general circulation leading to the event is found to be dissimilar to 2012 and other events documented in the 21st century, with warm air associated with remote atmospheric blocking over western Europe eventually transiting west to the GrIS. Gravimetric data indicate that the 2019 summer mass loss was 137 Gt more than the 2004–2010 median, or about 92% of the 2012 record. Mass loss during the event was significant in GrIS northeastern regions in 2019. As compared to 2012, the southwest did not fully participate. Similar circulation patterns have not previously been associated with significant melt.

Richard I Cullather↗

NASA NTRS2012

Coherent Multidecadal Atmospheric and Oceanic Variability in the North Atlantic: Blocking Corresponds with Warm Subpolar Ocean

Winters with frequent atmospheric blocking, in a band of latitudes from Greenland to Western Europe, are found to persist over several decades and correspond to a warm North Atlantic Ocean. This is evident in atmospheric reanalysis data, both modern and for the full 20th century. Blocking is approximately in phase with Atlantic multidecadal ocean variability (AMV). Wintertime atmospheric blocking involves a highly distorted jetstream, isolating large regions of air from the westerly circulation. It influences the ocean through windstress-curl and associated air/sea heat flux. While blocking is a relatively high-frequency phenomenon, it is strongly modulated over decadal timescales. The blocked regime (weaker ocean gyres, weaker air-sea heat flux, paradoxically increased transport of warm subtropical waters poleward) contributes to the warm phase of AMV. Atmospheric blocking better describes the early 20thC warming and 1996-2010 warm period than does the NAO index. It has roots in the hemispheric circulation and jet stream dynamics. Subpolar Atlantic variability covaries with distant AMOC fields: both these connections may express the global influence of the subpolar North Atlantic ocean on the global climate system.

Hakkinen, Sirpa M.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Neutrally stable atmospheric flow over a two-dimensional rectangular block

The phenomena of atmospheric flow over a two dimensional surface obstruction such as a building modeled as a rectangular block are analyzed by an approach using the Navier-Stokes equations with a two equation model of turbulence. The partial differential equations for the vorticity, stream function, turbulence kinetic energy, and turbulence length scale are solved by a finite difference technique. The predicted results are in agreement with the limited experimental data available. Current computed results show that the separation bubble originates from the upper front corner of the block and extends approximately 11.5 block heights behind the block. The decay of the mean velocity along the wake center line coincides almost perfectly with the experimental data. The vertical profiles of the mean velocity defect are also in reasonable agreement with wind tunnel results. Velocity profiles in the mixing region are shown to agree with the error function profile typically found in the shear layer. Details of the behavior of the turbulence kinetic energy and the turbulence length scale are also discussed.

Shieh, C. F.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Distinct Chlorine Isotopic Reservoirs on Mars: Implications for Character, Extent and Relative Timing of Crustal Interaction with Mantle-Derived Magmas, Evolution of the Martian Atmosphere, and the Building Blocks of an Early Mars

The style, magnitude, timing, and mixing components involved in the interaction between mantle derived Martian magmas and Martian crust have long been a point of debate. Understanding this process is fundamental to deciphering the composition of the Martian crust and its interaction with the atmosphere, the compositional diversity and oxygen fugacity variations in the Martian mantle, the bulk composition of Mars and the materials from which it accreted, and the noble gas composition of Mars and the Sun. Recent studies of the chlorine isotopic composition of Martian meteorites imply that although the variation in delta (sup 37) Cl is limited (total range of approximately14 per mille), there appears to be distinct signatures for the Martian crust and mantle. However, there are potential issues with this interpretation. New Cl isotope data from the SAM (Sample Analysis at Mars) instrument on the Mars Science Lab indicate a very wide range of Cl isotopic compositions on the Martian surface. Recent measurements by [10] duplicated the results of [7,8], but placed them within the context of SAM surface data. In addition, Martian meteorite Chassigny contains trapped noble gases with isotopic ratios similar to solar abundance, and has long been considered a pristine, mantle derived sample. However, previous studies of apatite in Chassigny indicate that crustal fluids have interacted with regions interstitial to the cumulus olivine. The initial Cl isotope measurements of apatite in Chassigny suggest an addition of crustal component to this lithology, apparently contradicting the rare gas data. Here, we examine the Cl isotopic composition of multiple generations and textures of apatite in Chassigny to extricate the crustal and mantle components in this meteorite and to reveal the style and timing of the addition of crustal components to mantle-derived magmas. These data reveal distinct Martian Cl sources whose signatures have their origins linked to both the early Solar System and the evolving Martian atmosphere.

Shearer, C. K.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Persistent anomalies, blocking and variations in atmospheric predictability

The fully nonlinear, equivalent-barotropic vorticity equation on the sphere, with simplified forcing, dissipation and topography, is the model used in the present consideration of low frequency variability regimes in large scale atmospheric dynamics. The solutions obtained are studied as a function of the nondimensional intensity of the forcing and dissipation. The number of modes retained in the analysis allows the multiple equilibria thus obtained, which exhibit blocked and zonal flow patterns very similar to synoptically defined zonal and blocked Northern Hemisphere midlatitude flows, to appear for realistic values of the forcing. The number of episodes of blocked or zonal flow decreases monotonically as their duration increases, in agreement with observations.

Legras, B.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Statistical analysis of atmospheric turbulence about a simulated block building

An array of towers instrumented to measure the three components of wind speed was used to study atmospheric flow about a simulated block building. Two-point spacetime correlations of the longitudinal velocity component were computed along with two-point spatial correlations. These correlations are in good agreement with fundamental concepts of fluid mechanics. The two-point spatial correlations computed directly were compared with correlations predicted by Taylor's hypothesis and excellent agreement was obtained at the higher levels which were out of the building influence. The correlations fall off significantly in the building wake but recover beyond the wake to essentially the same values in the undisturbed, higher regions.

Steely, S. L., Jr.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Cooperative Agreement To Analyze variabiLity, change and predictabilitY in the earth SysTem (CATALYST)

CATALYST proposes to perform foundational coordinated research in a team-oriented collaborative effort aimed at advancing a robust understanding of modes of Earth system variability and change using models, observations and process studies. The proposed research will address the DOE/BER mission by exploring the limits to predictability, identifying fundamental underlying mechanisms, quantifying interactions among modes of variability, and discovering tipping points in the Earth system to understand the current and future impacts of these phenomena on regional and global climate. Four fundamental gaps are identified in our knowledge of the Earth system: 1) What are the limits to predictability on various timescales? 2) What are the interactions among modes of Earth system variability? 3) How may modes of Earth system variability change in response to changes in external forcing, and what are the tipping points involved with those changes? 4) How are high impact events connected to modes of Earth system variability and how may they change in the future? Related to those gaps in our knowledge, we formulate four research objectives to address those gaps using a combination of Earth system models (ESMs) and machine learning (ML) methods. Research Objective 1 (RO1) addresses the first gap above and proposes to understand modes of variability and their limits of predictability on subseasonal to decadal timescales using ESMs and ML. Research Objective 2 (RO2) addresses the second gap and proposes to use a hierarchy of models to understand relevant processes and feedbacks related to how modes of variability interact with each other. Research Objective 3 (RO3) is designed to study the third gap and proposes to examine the role of external forcings in changes of modes of Earth system variability and their interactions, and the likelihood and predictability of tipping points and irreversible changes. Research Objective 4 (RO4) will address the fourth gap and proposes to use high resolution ESMs, regionally refined models (RRMs), and ML methods to investigate the relationships between high impact events (e.g. flash droughts and precipitation extremes, atmospheric rivers (ARs), tropical cyclones (TCs), storm surge/sea level rise), the synoptic systems that produce them, and their changes related to modes of Earth system variability. The research will involve the use of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), CMIP multi-model data sets, a hierarchy of simpler models, and numerous observational data sets. In the course of the proposed research, CATALYST will contribute to metrics and diagnostics that will be integrated in Coordinated Model Evaluation Capabilities (CMEC), particularly with regards to the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) and its interactions with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), high atmospheric pressure blocking, and new precipitation metrics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗