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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Posterior Regularized Bayesian Neural Network incorporating soft and hard knowledge constraints

Neural Networks (NNs) have been widely used in supervised learning due to their ability to model complex nonlinear patterns, often presented in high-dimensional data such as images and text. However, traditional NNs often lack the ability for uncertainty quantification. Bayesian NNs (BNNS) could help measure the uncertainty by considering the distributions of the NN model parameters. Besides, domain knowledge is commonly available and could improve the performance of BNNs if it can be appropriately incorporated. In this work, we propose a novel Posterior-Regularized Bayesian Neural Network (PR-BNN) model by incorporating different types of knowledge constraints, such as the soft and hard constraints, as a posterior regularization term. Furthermore, we propose to combine the augmented Lagrangian method and the existing BNN solvers for efficient inference. Furthermore, the experiments in simulation and two case studies about aviation landing prediction and solar energy output prediction have shown the knowledge constraints and the performance improvement of the proposed model over traditional BNNs without the constraints.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deep inference of simulated strong lenses in ground-based surveys

The large number of strong lenses discoverable in future astronomical surveys will likely enhance the value of strong gravitational lensing as a cosmic probe of dark energy and dark matter. However, leveraging the increased statistical power of such large samples will require further development of automated lens modeling techniques. We show that deep learning and simulation-based inference (SBI) methods produce informative and reliable estimates of parameter posteriors for strong lensing systems in ground-based surveys. We present the examination and comparison of two approaches to lens parameter estimation for strong galaxy-galaxy lenses — Neural Posterior Estimation (NPE) and Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs). We perform inference on 1-, 5-, and 12-parameter lens models for ground-based imaging data that mimics the Dark Energy Survey (DES). We find that NPE outperforms BNNs, producing posterior distributions that are more accurate, precise, and well-calibrated for most parameters. For the 12-parameter NPE model, the calibration is consistently within <10% of optimal calibration for all parameters, while the BNN is rarely within 20% of optimal calibration for any of the parameters. Similarly, residuals for most of the parameters are smaller (by up to an order of magnitude) with the NPE model than the BNN model. This work takes important steps in the systematic comparison of methods for different levels of model complexity.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Deeply uncertain: comparing methods of uncertainty quantification in deep learning algorithms

We present a comparison of methods for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in deep learning algorithms in the context of a simple physical system. Three of the most common uncertainty quantification methods - Bayesian Neural Networks (BNN), Concrete Dropout (CD), and Deep Ensembles (DE) - are compared to the standard analytic error propagation. We discuss this comparison in terms endemic to both machine learning ("epistemic" and "aleatoric") and the physical sciences ("statistical" and "systematic"). The comparisons are presented in terms of simulated experimental measurements of a single pendulum - a prototypical physical system for studying measurement and analysis techniques. Our results highlight some pitfalls that may occur when using these UQ methods. For example, when the variation of noise in the training set is small, all methods predicted the same relative uncertainty independently of the inputs. This issue is particularly hard to avoid in BNN. On the other hand, when the test set contains samples far from the training distribution, we found that no methods sufficiently increased the uncertainties associated to their predictions. This problem was particularly clear for CD. In light of these results, we make some recommendations for usage and interpretation of UQ methods.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Explainable Bayesian Neural Network for Probabilistic Transient Stability Analysis Considering Wind Energy

While several data-driven models have been developed for transient stability assessment, how to consider the uncertainties from load and renewable generations and provide interpretation of data-driven assessment results are still open. This paper proposes an explainable Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) for probabilistic transient stability assessment (TSA). By extracting the uncertainties from loads and wind farms, the BNN model can make a reliable prediction and quantify the prediction uncertainties. We also develop the Gradient Shap algorithm to make the global and local explanations for the probabilistic TSA model, a significant advantage over existing black-box data-driven methods. Numerical results on the modified IEEE 39-bus system show that the proposed method outperforms the existing methods in terms of prediction accuracy and uncertainty quantification capabilities. The explainability of the proposed method allows system operators to design preventive controls for enhancing system stability.

Bayesian Neural Network↗
DOE OSTI2022

Posterior Regularized Bayesian Neural Network

Traditional NNs often lack the ability for uncertainty quantification. Bayesian NNs(BNNs) could help measure the confidence level by using distributions in NNs modeling. Besides, knowledge is commonly available and could improve the performance of BNNs if it can be properly incorporated. In this work, we propose a novel Posterior-Regularized BNN(PR-BNN) model by incorporating soft and hard constraints as a posterior regularization term. We also propose an augmented Lagrangian method and stochastic optimization algorithm for efficient updating via Monte Carlo sampling. The simulations and case studies for solar PV plants have shown the performance improvement of the proposed model over traditional BNNs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparing Automated Posterior Estimation Techniques for Modeling Strong Lenses In Ground-based Survey Data

Current and future ground-based cosmological surveys, such as the Dark Energy Survey (DES), and the Vera Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), are predicted to discover thousands to tens of thousands of strong gravitational lenses. The large number of strong lenses discoverable in future surveys will make strong lensing a highly competitive and complementary cosmic probe. However, conventional lens modeling techniques are unable to scale up to the sheer number of lenses that will be discovered through upcoming surveys. Therefore, the use of automated lens analysis techniques is necessary. We demonstrate that machine learning methods can be used to automate the inference of informative model posteriors of strong lensing systems in ground-based surveys with credible uncertainty estimation. We present two Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) approaches for lens parameter estimation of galaxy-galaxy lenses. We demonstrate applications of Neural Posteriors Estima tors (NPEs) and Bayesian Neural Network (BNNs) to automate the inference of a 12-parameter lensing system for DES-like ground-based imaging data. We apply a suite of diagnostics (e.g., posterior coverage and SBC) to validate the performance of our methods. We find that NPEs outperform the BNN, producing posterior distributions that are for the most part both more accurate and more precise; in particular, several source-light model parameters are systematically biased in the BNN implementation.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning Models for Day-Ahead Photovoltaic Power Production Forecasting

A main challenge for integrating the intermittent photovoltaic (PV) power generation remains the accuracy of day-ahead forecasts and the establishment of robust performing methods. The purpose of this work is to address these technological challenges by evaluating the day-ahead PV production forecasting performance of different machine learning models under different supervised learning regimes and minimal input features. Specifically, the day-ahead forecasting capability of Bayesian neural network (BNN), support vector regression (SVR), and regression tree (RT) models was investigated by employing the same dataset for training and performance verification, thus enabling a valid comparison. The training regime analysis demonstrated that the performance of the investigated models was strongly dependent on the timeframe of the train set, training data sequence, and application of irradiance condition filters. Furthermore, accurate results were obtained utilizing only the measured power output and other calculated parameters for training. Consequently, useful information is provided for establishing a robust day-ahead forecasting methodology that utilizes calculated input parameters and an optimal supervised learning approach. Finally, the obtained results demonstrated that the optimally constructed BNN outperformed all other machine learning models achieving forecasting accuracies lower than 5%.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1992

A new fabrication technique for back-to-back varactor diodes

A new varactor diode process has been developed in which much of the processing is done from the back of an extremely thin semiconductor wafer laminated to a low-dielectric substrate. Back-to-back BNN diodes were fabricated with this technique; excellent DC and low-frequency capacitance measurements were obtained. Advantages of the new technique relative to other techniques include greatly reduced frontside wafer damage from exposure to process chemicals, improved capability to integrate devices (e.g. for antenna patterns, transmission lines, or wafer-scale grids), and higher line yield. BNN diodes fabricated with this technique exhibit approximately the expected capacitance-voltage characteristics while showing leakage currents under 10 mA at voltages three times that needed to deplete the varactor. This leakage is many orders of magnitude better than comparable Schottky diodes.

Smith, R. Peter↗
NASA NTRS1992

Monolithic millimeter-wave diode grid frequency multiplier arrays

Monolithic diode frequency multiplier arrays, including barrier-N-N(+) (BNN) doubler, multi-quantum-barrier-varactor (MQBV) tripler, Schottky-quantum-barrier-varactor (SQBV) tripler, and resonant-tunneling-diode (RTD) tripler arrays, have been successfully fabricated with yields between 85 and 99 percent. Frequency doubling and/or tripling have been observed for all the arrays. Output powers of 2.4-2.6 W (eta = 10-18 percent) at 66 GHz with the BNN doubler and 3.8-10 W (eta = 1.7-4 percent) at 99 GHz with the SQBV tripler have been achieved.

Liu, Hong-Xia L.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Planar varactor frequency multiplier devices with blocking barrier

The invention relates to planar varactor frequency multiplier devices with a heterojunction blocking barrier for near millimeter wave radiation of moderate power from a fundamental input wave. The space charge limitation of the submillimeter frequency multiplier devices of the BIN(sup +) type is overcome by a diode structure comprising an n(sup +) doped layer of semiconductor material functioning as a low resistance back contact, a layer of semiconductor material with n-type doping functioning as a drift region grown on the back contact layer, a delta doping sheet forming a positive charge at the interface of the drift region layer with a barrier layer, and a surface metal contact. The layers thus formed on an n(sup +) doped layer may be divided into two isolated back-to-back BNN(sup +) diodes by separately depositing two surface metal contacts. By repeating the sequence of the drift region layer and the barrier layer with the delta doping sheet at the interfaces between the drift and barrier layers, a plurality of stacked diodes is formed. The novelty of the invention resides in providing n-type semiconductor material for the drift region in a GaAs/AlGaAs structure, and in stacking a plurality of such BNN(sup +) diodes stacked for greater output power with and connected back-to-back with the n(sup +) GaAs layer as an internal back contact and separate metal contact over an AlGaAs barrier layer on top of each stack.

Lieneweg, Udo↗
DOE OSTI2022

Posterior Regularized Bayesian Neural Network

Traditional NNs often lack the ability for uncertainty quantification. Bayesian NNs(BNNs) could help measure the confidence level by using distributions in NNs modeling. Besides, knowledge is commonly available and could improve the performance of BNNs if it can be properly incorporated. In this work, we propose a novel Posterior-Regularized BNN(PR-BNN) model by incorporating soft and hard constraints as a posterior regularization term. We also propose an augmented Lagrangian method and stochastic optimization algorithm for efficient updating via Monte Carlo sampling. The simulations and case studies in solar energy prediction have shown the performance improvement of the proposed model over traditional BNNs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine Learning Model Geotiffs - Applications of Machine Learning Techniques to Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis in the Great Basin Region, Nevada

This submission contains geotiffs, supporting shapefiles and readmes for the inputs and output models of algorithms explored in the Nevada Geothermal Machine Learning project, meant to accompany the final report. Layers include: Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Extreme Learning Machine (ELM), Bayesian Neural Network (BNN), Principal Component Analysis (PCA/PCAk), Non-negative Matrix Factorization (NMF/NMFk), input rasters of feature sets, and positive/negative training sites. See readme .txt files and final report for additional metadata. A submission linking the full codebase for generating machine learning output models is available under "related resources" on this page.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

GIS Resource Compilation Map Package - Applications of Machine Learning Techniques to Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis in the Great Basin Region, Nevada

This submission contains an ESRI map package (.mpk) with an embedded geodatabase for GIS resources used or derived in the Nevada Machine Learning project, meant to accompany the final report. The package includes layer descriptions, layer grouping, and symbology. Layer groups include: new/revised datasets (paleo-geothermal features, geochemistry, geophysics, heat flow, slip and dilation, potential structures, geothermal power plants, positive and negative test sites), machine learning model input grids, machine learning models (Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Extreme Learning Machine (ELM), Bayesian Neural Network (BNN), Principal Component Analysis (PCA/PCAk), Non-negative Matrix Factorization (NMF/NMFk) - supervised and unsupervised), original NV Play Fairway data and models, and NV cultural/reference data. See layer descriptions for additional metadata. Smaller GIS resource packages (by category) can be found in the related datasets section of this submission. A submission linking the full codebase for generating machine learning output models is available through the "Related Datasets" link on this page, and contains results beyond the top picks present in this compilation.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Explainable multi-fidelity Bayesian neural network for distribution system state estimation

Distribution System State Estimation (DSSE) is frequently constrained by limited real-time measurements, the uncertainties introduced by distributed energy resources, and the presence of bad data. To address them, this paper proposes an enhanced Multi-Fidelity Bayesian Neural Network (MFBNN) DSSE approach. A low-fidelity layer based on a Deep Neural Network (DNN) is first pre-trained on pseudo-measurement data to learn fundamental state features. Subsequently, a high-fidelity Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) layer leverages limited but high-quality real-time measurements to refine these features, thereby achieving accurate DSSE. Additionally, the deep SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) is developed to quantify the influence of measurement data on DSSE through dual perspectives of global feature importance and local nodal contributions, establishing a hierarchical explainability framework for machine learning-based DSSE. Comparative studies conducted on the IEEE 13-bus system and a real-world 2135-node system from Dominion Energy demonstrate that the proposed method excels in estimation accuracy, even under situations of high noise levels, bad data, and missing data. Further comparisons with Weighted Least Squares (WLS) and other machine learning-based DSSE approaches verify that the proposed framework offers higher accuracy, improved interpretability, and enhanced robustness.

Bad data↗
DOE OSTI2025

Physics-based hybrid machine learning for critical heat flux prediction with uncertainty quantification

Critical heat flux (CHF) is a key quantity in nuclear system modeling due to its impact on heat transfer, safety margins, and reactor performance. This study develops and validates an uncertainty-aware hybrid modeling approach that combines machine learning with physics-based models to predict CHF in cases of dryout. The Biasi and Bowring empirical correlations were paired with three ML uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques: deep neural network (DNN) ensembles, Bayesian neural networks (BNNs), and deep Gaussian processes (DGPs). A pure ML model without a base model was evaluated for comparison. Model performance was assessed under plentiful (7,350 points) and limited (9 points) training data scenarios using parity, uncertainty distributions, and calibration curves. Results show that the Biasi hybrid DNN ensemble achieved the best overall performance, with a mean absolute relative error of 1.846%, and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. The BNN-based hybrids showed slightly higher error (2.14%) but superior uncertainty calibration. DGP models underperformed, with over 6% error and poor uncertainty calibration. All hybrid models outperformed pure machine learning configurations, demonstrating resistance against data scarcity. These findings indicate that hybrid modeling significantly improves predictive accuracy, interpretability, and resilience to data scarcity. The integration of uncertainty awareness provides actionable confidence in CHF predictions, which is vital for safety-critical decisions in nuclear applications. This hybrid approach offers a viable pathway for deploying ML models in reactor analysis tools while preserving domain knowledge and physical consistency.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty quantification of a deep learning fuel property prediction model

Deep learning models are being widely used in the field of combustion. Given the black-box nature of typical neural network based models, uncertainty quantification (UQ) is critical to ensure the reliability of predictions as well as the training datasets, and for a principled quantification of noise and its various sources. Deep learning surrogate models for predicting properties of chemical compounds and mixtures have been recently shown to be promising for enabling data-driven fuel design and optimization, with the ultimate goal of improving efficiency and lowering emissions from combustion engines. In this study, UQ is performed for a multi-task deep learning model that simultaneously predicts the research octane number (RON), Motor Octane Number (MON), and Yield Sooting Index (YSI) of pure components and multicomponent blends. The deep learning model is comprised of three smaller networks: Extractor 1, Extractor 2, and Predictor, and a mixing operator. The molecular fingerprints of individual components are encoded via Extractor 1 and Extractor 2, the mixing operator generates fingerprints for mixtures/blends based on linear mixing operation, and the predictor maps the fingerprint to the target properties. Two different classes of UQ methods, Monte Carlo ensemble methods and Bayesian neural networks (BNNs), are employed for quantifying the epistemic uncertainty. Combinations of Bernoulli and Gaussian distributions with DropConnect and DropOut techniques are explored as ensemble methods. All the DropConnect, DropOut and Bayesian layers are applied to the predictor network. Aleatoric uncertainty is modeled by assuming that each data point has an independent uncertainty associated with it. The results of the UQ study are further analyzed to compare the performance of BNN and ensemble methods. Although this study is confined to UQ of fuel property prediction, the methodologies are applicable to other deep learning frameworks that are being widely used in the combustion community.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2025

An investigation on machine learning predictive accuracy improvement and uncertainty reduction using VAE-based data augmentation

The confluence of ultrafast computers with large memory, rapid progress in Machine Learning (ML) algorithms, and the availability of large datasets place multiple engineering fields at the threshold of dramatic progress. However, a unique challenge in nuclear engineering is data scarcity because experimentation on nuclear systems is usually more expensive and time-consuming than most other disciplines. One potential way to resolve the data scarcity issue is deep generative learning, which uses certain ML models to learn the underlying distribution of existing data and generate synthetic samples that resemble the real data. In this way, one can significantly expand the dataset to train more accurate predictive ML models. In this study, our objective is to evaluate the effectiveness of data augmentation using variational autoencoder (VAE)-based deep generative models. We investigated whether the data augmentation leads to improved accuracy in the predictions of a deep neural network (DNN) model trained using the augmented data. Additionally, the DNN prediction uncertainties are quantified using Bayesian Neural Networks (BNN) and conformal prediction (CP) to assess the impact on predictive uncertainty reduction. To test the proposed methodology, we used TRACE simulations of steady-state void fraction data based on the NUPEC Boiling Water Reactor Full-size Fine-mesh Bundle Test (BFBT) benchmark. Here, we found that augmenting the training dataset using VAEs has improved the DNN model’s predictive accuracy, improved the prediction confidence intervals, and reduced the prediction uncertainties.

Bayesian neural network↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian Entropy Neural Networks for physics-aware prediction

This article addresses the need for deep learning models to integrate well-defined constraints into their outputs, driven by their application in surrogate models, learning with limited data and partial information, and scenarios requiring flexible model behavior to incorporate non-data sample information. We introduce Bayesian Entropy Neural Networks (BENN), a framework grounded in Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) principles, designed to impose constraints on Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) predictions. BENN is capable of constraining not only the predicted values but also their derivatives and variances, ensuring a more robust and reliable model output. To achieve simultaneous uncertainty quantification and constraint satisfaction, we employ the method of multipliers approach. This allows for the concurrent estimation of neural network parameters and the Lagrangian multipliers associated with the constraints. Our experiments, spanning diverse applications such as beam deflection modeling and microstructure generation, demonstrate the effectiveness of BENN. The results highlight significant improvements over traditional BNNs and showcase competitive performance relative to contemporary constrained deep learning methods.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗