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Aerosol Observability and Predictability: From Research to Operations for Chemical Weather Forecasting. Lagrangian Displacement Ensembles for Aerosol Data Assimilation

A challenge common to many constituent data assimilation applications is the fact that one observes a much smaller fraction of the phase space that one wishes to estimate. For example, remotely sensed estimates of the column average concentrations are available, while one is faced with the problem of estimating 3D concentrations for initializing a prognostic model. This problem is exacerbated in the case of aerosols because the observable Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) is not only a column integrated quantity, but it also sums over a large number of species (dust, sea-salt, carbonaceous and sulfate aerosols. An aerosol transport model when driven by high-resolution, state-of-the-art analysis of meteorological fields and realistic emissions can produce skillful forecasts even when no aerosol data is assimilated. The main task of aerosol data assimilation is to address the bias arising from inaccurate emissions, and Lagrangian misplacement of plumes induced by errors in the driving meteorological fields. As long as one decouples the meteorological and aerosol assimilation as we do here, the classic baroclinic growth of error is no longer the main order of business. We will describe an aerosol data assimilation scheme in which the analysis update step is conducted in observation space, using an adaptive maximum-likelihood scheme for estimating background errors in AOD space. This scheme includes e explicit sequential bias estimation as in Dee and da Silva. Unlikely existing aerosol data assimilation schemes we do not obtain analysis increments of the 3D concentrations by scaling the background profiles. Instead we explore the Lagrangian characteristics of the problem for generating local displacement ensembles. These high-resolution state-dependent ensembles are then used to parameterize the background errors and generate 3D aerosol increments. The algorithm has computational complexity running at a resolution of 1/4 degree, globally. We will present the result of assimilating AOD retrievals from MODIS (on both Aqua and TERRA satellites) from AERONET for validation. The impact on the GEOS-5 Aerosol Forecasting will be fully documented.

da Silva, Arlindo

Use of an OSSE to Evaluate Background Error Covariances Estimated by the 'NMC Method'

The NMC method has proven utility for prescribing approximate background-error covariances required by variational data assimilation systems. Here, untunedNMCmethod estimates are compared with explicitly determined error covariances produced within an OSSE context by exploiting availability of the true simulated states. Such a comparison provides insights into what kind of rescaling is required to render the NMC method estimates usable. It is shown that rescaling of variances and directional correlation lengths depends greatly on both pressure and latitude. In particular, some scaling coefficients appropriate in the Tropics are the reciprocal of those in the Extratropics. Also, the degree of dynamic balance is grossly overestimated by the NMC method. These results agree with previous examinations of the NMC method which used ensembles as an alternative for estimating background-error statistics.

Data Assimilation

Search for electroweak-scale dijet resonances using trigger-level analysis with the ATLAS detector in 132 fb −1 of 𝑝⁢𝑝 collisions at $\sqrt{𝑠}$ = 13 TeV

This article reports on a search for dijet resonances using 132 fb −1 of 𝑝⁢𝑝 collision data recorded at $\sqrt{𝑠}$ = 13 TeV by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. The search is performed solely on jets reconstructed within the ATLAS trigger to overcome bandwidth limitations imposed on conventional single-jet triggers, which would otherwise reject data from decays of sub-TeV dijet resonances. Collision events with two jets satisfying transverse momentum thresholds of 𝑝 T ≥ 85 GeV and jet rapidity separation of |𝑦*| <0.6 are analysed for dijet resonances with invariant masses from 375 to 1800 GeV. A data-driven background estimate is used to model the dijet mass distribution from multijet processes. No significant excess above the expected background is observed. Upper limits are set at 95% confidence level on coupling values for a benchmark leptophobic axial-vector 𝑍′ model and on the production cross section for a new resonance contributing a Gaussian-distributed line-shape to the dijet mass distribution.

hadron colliders

Neutral particle background in cosmic ray telescopes composed of silicon solid state detectors

The energy loss-spectrum of secondary charged particles produced by the interaction of gamma-rays and energetic neutrons in silicon solid state detectors has been measured with a satellite-borne cosmic ray telescope. In the satellite measurements presented here two distinct neutral background effects are identified: secondary protons and alpha particles with energies of about 2 to 100 MeV produced by neutron interactions, and secondary electrons with energies of about 0.2 to 10 MeV produced by X-ray interactions. The implications of this neutral background for satellite measurements of low energy cosmic rays are discussed, and suggestions are given for applying these results to other detector systems in order to estimate background contamination and optimize detector system design.

Mewaldt, R. A.

Formaldehyde Production from Isoprene Oxidation Across NOx Regimes

The chemical link between isoprene and formaldehyde (HCHO) is a strong, non-linear function of NOx (= 27 NO + NO2). This relationship is a linchpin for top-down isoprene emission inventory verification from orbital HCHO column observations. It is also a benchmark for overall mechanism performance with regard to VOC oxidation. Using a comprehensive suite of airborne in situ observations over the Southeast U.S., we quantify HCHO production across the urban-rural spectrum. Analysis of isoprene and its major first-generation oxidation products allows us to define both a "prompt" yield of HCHO (molecules of HCHO produced per molecule of freshly-emitted isoprene) and the background HCHO mixing ratio (from oxidation of longer-lived hydrocarbons). Over the range of observed NOx values (roughly 0.1 - 2 ppbv), the prompt yield increases by a factor of 3 (from 0.3 to 0.9), while background HCHO increases by more than a factor of 2 (from 1.5 to 3.3 ppbv). We apply the same method to evaluate the performance of both a global chemical transport model (AM3) and a measurement-constrained 0-D chemical box model. Both models reproduce the NOx dependence of the prompt HCHO yield, illustrating that models with updated isoprene oxidation mechanisms can adequately capture the link between HCHO and recent isoprene emissions. On the other hand, both models under-estimate background HCHO mixing ratios, suggesting missing HCHO precursors, inadequate representation of later-generation isoprene degradation and/or under-estimated hydroxyl radical concentrations. Moreover, we find that the total organic peroxy radical production rate is essentially independent of NOx, as the increase in oxidizing capacity with NOx is largely balanced by a decrease in VOC reactivity. Thus, the observed NOx dependence of HCHO mainly reflects the changing fate of organic peroxy radicals.

VOC

Auditory alert systems with enhanced detectability

Methods and systems for distinguishing an auditory alert signal from a background of one or more non-alert signals. In a first embodiment, a prefix signal, associated with an existing alert signal, is provided that has a signal component in each of three or more selected frequency ranges, with each signal component in each of three or more selected level at least 3-10 dB above an estimated background (non-alert) level in that frequency range. The alert signal may be chirped within one or more frequency bands. In another embodiment, an alert signal moves, continuously or discontinuously, from one location to another over a short time interval, introducing a perceived spatial modulation or jitter. In another embodiment, a weighted sum of background signals adjacent to each ear is formed, and the weighted sum is delivered to each ear as a uniform background; a distinguishable alert signal is presented on top of this weighted sum signal at one ear, or distinguishable first and second alert signals are presented at two ears of a subject.

Begault, Durand R.

First Results on the Search for Lepton Number Violating Neutrinoless Double-𝛽 Decay with the LEGEND-200 Experiment

The LEGEND Collaboration is searching for neutrinoless double-beta (0⁢𝜈⁢𝛽⁢𝛽) decay by operating high-purity germanium detectors enriched in 76 Ge in a low-background liquid argon environment. Building on key technological innovations from the GERmanium Detector Array (GERDA) experiment and the MAJORANA DEMONSTRATOR experiment, LEGEND-200 has performed a first 0⁢𝜈⁢𝛽⁢𝛽 decay search based on 61.0 kg yr of data. Over half of this exposure comes from our highest performing detectors, including newly developed inverted-coaxial detectors, and is characterized by an estimated background level of 0.5$^{+0.3}_{−0.2}$ ⁢cts/(keV ton yr) in the 0⁢𝜈⁢𝛽⁢𝛽 decay signal region. A combined analysis of data from GERDA, the MAJORANA DEMONSTRATOR, and LEGEND-200, characterized by a 90% confidence level exclusion sensitivity of 2.8 ×10 26 yr on the half-life of 0⁢𝜈⁢𝛽⁢𝛽 decay, reveals no evidence for a signal and sets a new observed lower limit at 𝑇$^{⁢0𝜈}_{1/2}$ > 1.9 × 10 26 yr (90% confidence level). Assuming the decay is mediated by Majorana neutrinos, this corresponds to an upper limit on the effective Majorana mass in the range 𝑚 𝛽⁢𝛽 < 75–200 meV, depending on the adopted nuclear matrix element.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS

Ensemble Data Assimilation Without Ensembles: Methodology and Application to Ocean Data Assimilation

Two methods to estimate background error covariances for data assimilation are introduced. While both share properties with the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), they differ from it in that they do not require the integration of multiple model trajectories. Instead, all the necessary covariance information is obtained from a single model integration. The first method is referred-to as SAFE (Space Adaptive Forecast error Estimation) because it estimates error covariances from the spatial distribution of model variables within a single state vector. It can thus be thought of as sampling an ensemble in space. The second method, named FAST (Flow Adaptive error Statistics from a Time series), constructs an ensemble sampled from a moving window along a model trajectory. The underlying assumption in these methods is that forecast errors in data assimilation are primarily phase errors in space and/or time.

Data Assimilation

A data-driven method to estimate the antiproton background in the Mu2e experiment

The Mu2e experiment at Fermilab will search for the Charged Lepton Flavour Violating (CLFV) process of coherent, neutrinoless µ− → e − conversion in the field of an aluminum nucleus. The expected signal is a monochromatic electron with the energy of 104.97 MeV, slightly below the muon rest mass. Observation of a CLFV process would provide unambiguous evidence for Beyond the Standard Model (BSM) physics. Mu2e is sensitive to a wide range of BSM models and has the capability to distinguish between them, guiding us towards the most accurate models. The key features of the Mu2e experiment are: (1) a high intensity pulsed negative muon beam with about 1010 stopped µ −/s, and (2) a sophisticated superconducting solenoid system with a gradient magnetic field to form and guide the intense muon beam to the target. The Mu2e physics data taking is expected to begin in 2027. For Run I, the expected 5σ discovery sensitivity is Rµe = 1.2 × 10−15, with a total expected background of 0.11 ± 0.03 events. In the absence of a signal, the expected upper limit is Rµe < 6.2 × 10−16 at 90% CL. The success of this experiment hinges on the accurate estimation of the background from various SM processes that could provide signal-like electrons. One of the background processes is antiprotons annihilating in the stopping target to produce signal like electrons through π0 → γγ decays followed by γ conversions, and π− → µ−ν¯ decays followed by µ− decay. It is a relatively small background with large uncertainty (100%) due to the lack of antiproton production cross section information for the Mu2e proton beam energy of 8 GeV. We have developed a novel methodology to estimate the antiproton background in-situ. This forms the main theme of the thesis. We observed that at Mu2e energies, antiproton annihilation in the stopping target is the only source of events with multiple, simultaneous particle trajectories. From Geant4 simulations, only about 0.2% of the simulated antiproton annihilation events have a signal-like electron. Meanwhile, ∼ 5% of events have multiple reconstructible particle tracks per event. Therefore, we have devised a methodology to reconstruct the multi-track events and estimate the antiproton background by exploiting the large ratio of the production rates of the two final states.

Chithirasreemadam, Namitha [Pisa U.] (ORCID:000000

On the Choice of Variable for Atmospheric Moisture Analysis

The implications of using different control variables for the analysis of moisture observations in a global atmospheric data assimilation system are investigated. A moisture analysis based on either mixing ratio or specific humidity is prone to large extrapolation errors, due to the high variability in space and time of these parameters and to the difficulties in modeling their error covariances. Using the logarithm of specific humidity does not alleviate these problems, and has the further disadvantage that very dry background estimates cannot be effectively corrected by observations. Relative humidity is a better choice from a statistical point of view, because this field is spatially and temporally more coherent and error statistics are therefore easier to obtain. If, however, the analysis is designed to preserve relative humidity in the absence of moisture observations, then the analyzed specific humidity field depends entirely on analyzed temperature changes. If the model has a cool bias in the stratosphere this will lead to an unstable accumulation of excess moisture there. A pseudo-relative humidity can be defined by scaling the mixing ratio by the background saturation mixing ratio. A univariate pseudo-relative humidity analysis will preserve the specific humidity field in the absence of moisture observations. A pseudorelative humidity analysis is shown to be equivalent to a mixing ratio analysis with flow-dependent covariances. In the presence of multivariate (temperature-moisture) observations it produces analyzed relative humidity values that are nearly identical to those produced by a relative humidity analysis. Based on a time series analysis of radiosonde observed-minus-background differences it appears to be more justifiable to neglect specific humidity-temperature correlations (in a univariate pseudo-relative humidity analysis) than to neglect relative humidity-temperature correlations (in a univariate relative humidity analysis). A pseudo-relative humidity analysis is easily implemented in an existing moisture analysis system, by simply scaling observed-minus background moisture residuals prior to solving the analysis equation, and rescaling the analyzed increments afterward.

Dee, Dick P.

Search for top squarks in final states with many light-flavor jets and 0, 1, or 2 charged leptons in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV

Several new physics models including versions of supersymmetry (SUSY) characterized by R-parity violation (RPV) or with additional hidden sectors predict the production of events with top quarks, low missing transverse momentum, and many additional quarks or gluons. The results of a search for top squarks decaying to two top quarks and six additional light-flavor quarks or gluons are reported. The search employs a novel machine learning method for background estimation from control samples in data using decorrelated discriminators. The search is performed using events with 0, 1, or 2 electrons or muons in conjunction with at least six jets. No requirement is placed on the magnitude of the missing transverse momentum. The result is based on a sample of proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV corresponding to 138 fb −1 of integrated luminosity collected with the CMS detector at the LHC in 2016–2018. With no statistically significant excess of events observed beyond the expected contributions from the standard model, the data are used to determine upper limits on the top squark pair production cross section in the frameworks of RPV and stealth SUSY. Models with top squark masses less than 700 (930) GeV are excluded at 95% confidence level for RPV (stealth) SUSY scenarios.

Hadron-Hadron Scattering

Beam-dump ceiling and its experimental implications: The case of a portable experiment

We generalize the nature of the so-called beam-dump “ceiling” beyond which the improvement on the sensitivity reach in the search for fast-decaying mediators dramatically slows down, and we point out its experimental implications that motivate tabletop-sized beam-dump experiments for the search. Light (bosonic) mediators are well-motivated new-physics particles, as they can appear in dark-sector portal scenarios and models to explain various laboratory-based anomalies. Due to their low mass and feebly interacting nature, beam-dump-type experiments, utilizing high-intensity particle beams, can play a crucial role in probing the parameter space of such visibly decaying mediators—in particular, the “prompt decay” region, where the mediators feature relatively large coupling and mass. We present a general and semianalytic proof that the ceiling effectively arises in the prompt-decay region of an experiment and show its insensitivity to data statistics, background estimates, and systematic uncertainties, considering a concrete example, the search for axion-like particles interacting with ordinary photons at three benchmark beam facilities: PIP-II at FNAL, and SPS and LHC-dump at CERN. We then identify optimal criteria to perform a cost-effective and short-term experiment to reach the ceiling, demonstrating that very short-baseline compact experiments enable access to the parameter space unreachable thus far.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS

Search for flavor-changing neutral current interactions of the top quark mediated by a Higgs boson in proton-proton collisions at 13 TeV

A search for flavor-changing neutral current interactions of the top quark (𝑡) and the Higgs boson (𝐻) is presented. The search is based on proton-proton collision data collected in 2016–2018 at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV with the CMS detector at the LHC, and corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb −1 . Events containing a pair of leptons with the same-sign electric charge and at least one jet are considered. The results are used to constrain the branching fraction (ℬ) of the top quark decaying to a Higgs boson and an up (𝑢) or charm (𝑐) quark. No significant excess above the estimated background was found. The observed (expected) upper limits at a 95% confidence level are found to be 0.072% (0.059%) for ℬ⁡(𝑡 → 𝐻⁡𝑢) and 0.043% (0.062%) for ℬ⁡(𝑡 → 𝐻⁡𝑐). These results are combined with two other searches performed by the CMS Collaboration for flavor-changing neutral current interactions of top quarks and Higgs bosons in final states where the Higgs boson decays to either a pair of photons or a pair of bottom quarks. The resulting observed (expected) upper limits at the 95% confidence level are 0.019% (0.027%) for ℬ⁡(𝑡 → 𝐻⁡𝑢) and 0.037% (0.035%) for ℬ⁡(𝑡 → 𝐻⁡𝑐).

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS

First Measurement of Charged-Current Muon-Neutrino-Induced 𝐾 + Production on Argon Using the MicroBooNE Detector

The MicroBooNE experiment is an 85 tonne active mass liquid argon time projection chamber neutrino detector exposed to the on-axis Booster Neutrino Beam at Fermilab. One of MicroBooNE’s physics goals is the precise measurement of neutrino interactions on argon in the 1 GeV energy regime. Building on the capabilities of the MicroBooNE detector, this analysis identifies 𝐾 + mesons, a key signature for the study of strange particle production in neutrino interactions. This measurement is furthermore valuable for background estimation for future nucleon decay searches and for improved reconstruction and particle identification capabilities in experiments such as the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment. In this Letter, we present the first-ever measurement of a flux-integrated cross section for charged-current muon neutrino induced 𝐾 + production on argon nuclei, determined to be 7.93 ± 3.22⁢(stat) ± 2.83⁢(syst)×10 −42 cm 2 /nucleon based on an analysis of 6.88 × 10 20 protons on target. This result was found to be consistent with model predictions from different neutrino event generators within the reported uncertainties.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS

Neural simulation-based inference of the Higgs trilinear self-coupling via off-shell Higgs production

One of the forthcoming major challenges in particle physics is the experimental determination of the Higgs trilinear self-coupling. While efforts have largely focused on on-shell double- and single-Higgs production in proton-proton collisions, off-shell Higgs production has also been proposed as a valuable complementary probe. In this article, we design a hybrid neural simulation-based inference (NSBI) approach to construct a likelihood of the Higgs signal incorporating modifications from the Standard Model effective field theory (SMEFT), relevant background processes, and quantum interference effects. It leverages the training efficiency of matrix-element-enhanced techniques, which are vital for robust SMEFT applications, while also incorporating the practical advantages of classification-based methods for effective background estimates. We demonstrate that our NSBI approach achieves sensitivity close to the theoretical optimum and provide expected constraints for the high-luminosity upgrade of the Large Hadron Collider. While we primarily concentrate on the Higgs trilinear self-coupling, we also consider constraints on other SMEFT operators that affect off-shell Higgs production.

Ghosh, Aishik [Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (Un

First Measurement of Charged Current Muon Neutrino-Induced Kaon Production on Argon using the MicroBooNE Detector

MicroBooNE is an 85-tonne active mass liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) neutrino detector exposed to the Booster Neutrino Beamline (BNB) at Fermilab. One of the key physics goals is the precise measurement of neutrino interactions on argon in the 1 GeV energy regime. The study of strange and heavier meson production in neutrino interactions, in particular final states containing $K^{+}$, will help to improve the background estimates for future nucleon decay searches in experiments such as DUNE, provide valuable input for improving neutrino generator models, and will allow the development of techniques to enhance the particle identification capabilities of LArTPCs. In this work, we present the first-ever cross-section measurements of charged current muon neutrino-induced kaon production on argon at MicroBooNE.

Rodriguez Rondon, Jairo H. [South Dakota Sch. Mine

A More Precise Measurement of the Radius of PSR J0740+6620 Using Updated NICER Data

PSR J0740+6620 is the neutron star with the highest precisely determined mass, inferred from radio observations to be 2.08 ± 0.07 M ⊙ . Measurements of its radius therefore hold promise to constrain the properties of the cold, catalyzed, high-density matter in neutron star cores. Previously, Miller et al. and Riley et al. reported measurements of the radius of PSR J0740+6620 based on Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer (NICER) observations accumulated through 2020 April 17, and an exploratory analysis utilizing NICER background estimates and a data set accumulated through 2021 December 28 was presented in Salmi et al. Here we report an updated radius measurement, derived by fitting models of X-ray emission from the neutron star surface to NICER data accumulated through 2022 April 21, totaling ~1.1 Ms additional exposure compared to the data set analyzed in Miller et al. and Riley et al., and to data from XMM-Newton observations. We find that the equatorial circumferential radius of PSR J0740+6620 is ${12.92}_{-1.13}^{+2.09}$ km (68% credibility), a fractional uncertainty ~83% the width of that reported in Miller et al., in line with statistical expectations given the additional data. If we were to require the radius to be less than 16 km, as was done in Salmi et al., then our 68% credible region would become $R={12.76}_{-1.02}^{+1.49}$ km, which is close to the headline result of Salmi et al. Our updated measurements, along with other laboratory and astrophysical constraints, imply a slightly softer equation of state than that inferred from our previous measurements.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS

A study of the diffuse galactic gamma radiation

The observed diffuse galactic gamma radiation is compared to that predicted from galactic cosmic ray interactions with galactic matter and photons, assuming that on a broad scale the galactic cosmic rays in the plane are correlated with matter density. Recent considerations of the galactic diffuse matter distribution, particularly the molecular hydrogen, the galactic photon density, and a revised cosmic ray galactic scale height, are included. The predictions are compared to the observational gamma ray longitude distributions, the latitude distribution, and energy spectrum, including the COS-B satellite results, and the COS-B background estimate. Considering the uncertainties, the agreement between the theoretical predictions and the gamma ray data seems generally reasonable, suggesting that the general concepts are likely to be correct. Both the results determined here alone and in conjunction with other work calculating source functions assuming only cosmic ray matter contributions indicate no necessity for a significant point source contribution to the diffuse gamma radiation in the energy range being considered (E(gamma)10 MeV).

Fichtel, C. E.