Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Bayes Methods”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating User Errors and Temporal Trends in Marine Fish Communities Using 360-Degree Underwater Photography

The use of environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling has been proposed as a complementary method to monitor fish species in marine environments, offering a non-invasive and potentially more efficient approach to marine species observations. eDNA monitoring could be especially useful in and around sites targeted for marine energy generation as these regions need regular monitoring that would be impractical with traditional techniques. Before we can fully rely upon eDNA, we must first verify its accuracy against other proven methods, such as the use of underwater photography. In this study, I deployed a 360-degree camera in the tidal channel of Sequim Bay once a month during several hours overlapping slack tide. I investigated how having multiple people identify and count fish on underwater images could affect the overall results. Using chi square tests in R, I compared my fish identifications and counts to those made by another intern on the same images recorded in August. I found significant differences in the number of species identified and the total individual counts between the two different datasets. I also tested the statistical differences in both Shannon diversity and Pielou evenness indices between the August, September, and November camera deployments using a Hutcheson t-test. Only one significant difference was found in the Shannon index comparisons, and none were found between the Pielou evenness comparisons. These findings show that if multiple identifiers are used to process underwater images, quality control checks must be made to reduce the potential for error. This also points toward the possibility to leverage more advanced image analysis processes, such as automated image analysis software. The findings from this study also show that the dynamics of marine fish communities can vary over a few months; however, further analysis is needed to determine the extent of the seasonal changes in Sequim Bay.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

TRACER Perspectives on Gulf-Breeze and Bay-Breeze Circulations and Coastal Convection

Abstract This study explores gulf-breeze circulations (GBCs) and bay-breeze circulations (BBCs) in Houston–Galveston, investigating their characteristics, large-scale weather influences, and impacts on surface properties, boundary layer updrafts, and convective clouds. The results are derived from a combination of datasets, including satellite observations, ground-based measurements, and reanalysis datasets, using machine learning, changepoint detection method, and Lagrangian cell tracking. We find that anticyclonic synoptic patterns during the summer months (June–September) favor GBC/BBC formation and the associated convective cloud development, representing 74% of cases. The main Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment (TRACER) site located close to the Galveston Bay is influenced by both GBC and BBC, with nearly half of the cases showing evident BBC features. The site experiences early frontal passages ranging from 1040 to 1630 local time (LT), with 1300 LT being the most frequent. These fronts are stronger than those observed at the ancillary site which is located further inland from the Galveston Bay, including larger changes in surface temperature, moisture, and wind speed. Furthermore, these fronts trigger boundary layer updrafts, likely promoting isolated convective precipitating cores that are short lived (average convective lifetime of 63 min) and slow moving (average propagation speed of 5 m s −1 ), primarily within 20–40 km from the coast.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimating Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Two California Cities Using Bayesian Inversion and Satellite Measurements

NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatories (OCO-2 and OCO-3) provide measurements of column-averaged carbon dioxide concentrations (XCO 2 ) with sufficient spatial resolution and precision to constrain bottom-up estimates of CO 2 fluxes at regional scales. We use Bayesian inversion methods assimilating satellite retrievals to improve estimates of CO 2 fluxes in the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) which surrounds Los Angeles, and in the San Francisco Bay Area Air Basin (SFBA). We study 2020 to understand the impact of the COVID-19 lockdowns and an active wildfire season. Our results indicated that a 50% (30%) reduction in CO 2 emissions relative to 2015 during the COVID-19 lockdown period was consistent with OCO measurements for SFBA (SoCAB). We find that posterior wildfire emissions differed significantly from the prior at the scale of individual wildfires, though with large uncertainties, and that wildfire emissions in SFBA are significant, attributing 72% of the region's CO 2 emissions during August 2020 to wildfires.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hybridization capture sequencing for Vibrio spp. and associated virulence factors

ABSTRACT Proliferation ofVibriospp. in aquatic ecosystems is associated with climate change and, concomitantly, increased incidence of vibriosis. They are autochthonous to aquatic environments globally, but traditional metagenomic methods for detecting and typing pathogenicVibriospp. are challenged by their presence in relatively low abundance and ability to persist in a viable but nonculturable state. In the study reported here, hybridization capture sequencing (HCS) was employed to profile low-abundanceVibriospp. in environmental samples. The HCS panel targeted a family of molecular chaperones (CPN60) specific to 69Vibriospp. and 162Vibrio-specific virulence factors. This approach was evaluated in parallel with traditional whole-community shotgun sequencing in a metagenomic analysis of water and oyster samples collected from the Chesapeake Bay. In addition,Vibrio parahaemolyticusandVibrio vulnificusstrains isolated from the samples were subjected to whole-genome sequencing to determine the genetic characteristics of pathogenicVibriospp. circulating in an aquatic environment. HCS, employed to determine the incidence and characterization of specificVibriospp., yielded significantly greater metagenomic insight, notably a variety of otherVibriospp., including detection ofVibrio cholerae,Vibrio fluvialis, andVibrio aestuarianus, in addition toVibrio parahaemolyticusandVibrio vulnificus, and also important virulence factors not detectable using traditional molecular methods. Thus, pathogenicVibriospp. in aquatic ecosystems may be far more common than currently understood. It is concluded that environmental surveillance should include HCS, a valuable tool for the detection and characterization of pathogenic agents in aquatic ecosystems, notably vibrios. IMPORTANCE The increasing prevalence of pathogenicVibriospp. in aquatic ecosystems, driven by climate change, is closely linked to a rise in cholera and vibriosis cases, emphasizing the need for improved environmental surveillance. Vibrios are naturally occurring in aquatic environments globally, but traditional metagenomic methods for detecting and typing pathogenicVibriospp. are challenged by their presence in relatively low abundance and ability to persist in a viable but nonculturable state. In the study reported here, hybridization capture sequencing was employed to profile low-abundanceVibriospp. in metagenomic samples, namely water and oysters collected from the Chesapeake Bay. This approach was evaluated in parallel with traditional whole-community shotgun sequencing and whole-genome sequencing ofVibrio parahaemolyticusandVibrio vulnificusstrains isolated from the samples. Results suggest pathogenicVibriospp. in aquatic ecosystems may be far more common than currently understood, when multiple methods are considered for environmental surveillance.

Microbiology↗
DOE OSTI2024

Periodicity significance testing with null-signal templates: reassessment of PTF’s SMBH binary candidates

Periodograms are widely employed for identifying periodicity in time series data, yet they often struggle to accurately quantify the statistical significance of detected periodic signals when the data complexity precludes reliable simulations. We develop a data-driven approach to address this challenge by introducing a null-signal template (NST). The NST is created by carefully randomizing the period of each cycle in the periodogram template, rendering it non-periodic. It has the same frequentist properties as a periodic signal template, and we show with simulations that the distribution of false positives is the same as with the original periodic template, regardless of the underlying data. Thus, performing a periodicity search with the NST acts as an effective simulation of the null (no-signal) hypothesis, without having to simulate the noise properties of the data. We apply the NST method to the supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHB) search in the Palomar Transient Factory (PTF), where Charisi et al. had previously proposed 33 high signal-to-noise candidates utilizing simulations to quantify their significance. Our approach reveals that these simulations do not capture the complexity of the real data. There are no statistically significant periodic signal detections above the non-periodic background. To improve the search sensitivity, we introduce a Gaussian quadrature based algorithm for the Bayes Factor with correlated noise as a test statistic. We show with simulations that this improves sensitivity to true signals by more than an order of magnitude. However, the Bayes Factor approach also results in no statistically significant detections in the PTF data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Rapid wavefield forecasting for earthquake early warning via deep sequence to sequence learning

We propose a deep learning model, WaveCastNet, to forecast high-dimensional wavefields. WaveCastNet integrates a convolutional long expressive memory architecture into a sequence-to-sequence forecasting framework, enabling it to model long-term dependencies and multiscale patterns in both space and time. By sharing weights across spatial and temporal dimensions, WaveCastNet requires significantly fewer parameters than more resource-intensive models such as transformers, resulting in faster inference times. Crucially, WaveCastNet also generalizes better than transformers to rare and critical seismic scenarios, such as high-magnitude earthquakes. Here, we show the ability of the model to predict the intensity and timing of destructive ground motions in real time, using simulated data from the San Francisco Bay Area. Furthermore, we demonstrate its zero-shot capabilities by evaluating WaveCastNet on real earthquake data. Our approach does not require estimating earthquake magnitudes and epicenters, steps that are prone to error in conventional methods, nor does it rely on empirical ground-motion models, which often fail to capture strongly heterogeneous wave propagation effects.

Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Identification of contamination in the pulse-compression chamber of the OMEGA EP Laser System originating from clean room garments

The contamination of optical components with microscopic particles strongly impacts their ability to handle high-power or high-intensity laser pulses via an array of mechanisms. This work explores the nature and origin of a subset of contamination particles found inside the pulse-compression chamber of the OMEGA EP Laser System. Using Raman microscopy accompanied by other analytical methods, it was shown that sodium nitrate constitutes a significant fraction of the particles that possess diameters on the order of a few micrometers. Further investigation aiming to reveal the origin of these particles suggests that these sodium nitrate particles are deposited via shedding from the reusable clean room garments worn in the Laser Bay and compression chamber. Raman microscopy also revealed various plastic particles such as polystyrene, polyethylene, and poly(diallyl isophthalate).

Raman spectroscopy↗
DOE OSTI2024

Implementing Superresolution of Nonstationary Tides with Wavelets: An Introduction to CWT_Multi

Abstract Tides are often nonstationary due to nonastronomical influences. Investigating variable tidal properties implies a trade-off between separating adjacent frequencies (using long analysis windows) and resolving their time variations (short analysis windows). Previous continuous wavelet transform (CWT) tidal methods resolved tidal species. Here, we present CWT_Multi, a MATLAB code that 1) uses CWT linearity (via the “response coefficient method”) to implement superresolution, i.e., resolving tidal constituents beyond the Rayleigh criterion; 2) provides a Munk–Hasselmann constituent selection criterion appropriate for superresolution; and 3) introduces an objective, time-variable form of inference (“dynamic inference”) based on time-varying data properties. CWT_Multi resolves tidal species on time scales of days, and multiple constituents per species with fortnightly filters. It outputs astronomical phase lags and admittances, analyzes multiple records, and provides power spectra of the signal(s), residual(s), and reconstruction(s); confidence limits; and signal-to-noise ratios. Artificial data and water levels from the Lower Columbia River Estuary (LCRE) and San Francisco Bay Delta (SFBD) are used to test CWT_Multi and compare it to harmonic analysis programs NS_Tide and UTide. CWT_Multi provides superior reconstruction, detiding, dynamic analysis utility, and time resolution of constituents (but with broader confidence limits). Dynamic inference resolves closely spaced constituents (like K 1 , S 1 , and P 1 ) on fortnightly time scales, quantifying impacts of diel power peaking (with a 24-h period, like S 1 ) on water levels in the LCRE. CWT_Multi also helps quantify the impacts of high flows and a salt barrier closing on tidal properties in the SFBD. On the other hand, CWT_Multi does not excel at prediction, and results depend on analysis details, as for any method applied to nonstationary data. Significance Statement Ocean tides, especially in coastal and estuarine systems, are often nonstationary, in the sense that the mean and standard deviation of tidal properties vary over time, usually in response to some nontidal process. We introduce here a MATLAB code, CWT_Multi, that uses wavelet transforms to resolve both tidal species and constituents on time scales from a few days to months. Our code accommodates multiple scalar time series and has typical tidal analysis features like constituent selection and inference, plus two forms of uncertainty analyses. It is flexible, allowing the user to adapt analysis properties to diverse datasets. CWT_Multi is applicable to many problems involving time-variable tides, including sea level rise, compound flooding, sediment transport, and wetland habitat analyses. Application to vector data is a straightforward extension, but further development of our uncertainty analysis is merited. Because nonstationary tidal analysis is rapidly advancing, we also define the features of a “well-formed” analysis code.

Lobo, Matthew↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hierarchical Epoxy Structures via Tunable Polymerization-Induced Phase Separation Combined with Additive Manufacturing

Polymerization-induced phase separation (PIPS) allows for the control of thermoset morphologies and properties, enabling the tuning of domain sizes and thermomechanical response. However, its use in generating substructural features in additively manufactured materials has been limited. In this work, we combine epoxy PIPS with UV curable acrylate and rheological modifiers to print nano- to macro-phase separating materials via a two-step, dual-cure approach. This method enables direct ink write printing of hierarchical structures with both controlled morphologies through phase separation and macroscale architecture through print design. We find that formulations for phase-separating materials require judicious incorporation of additives to enable printability and to provide sufficient green strength. Atomic force microscopy-nano infrared mapping reveals tunable, reticulated nano- to micron-scale domains of the resultant multiphase materials and their morphology changes due to additives, resulting in alterations to thermomechanical and tensile properties. Shape memory behavior is also demonstrated through multimaterial additive manufacturing of epoxies with functionally graded internal morphology using active mixing techniques, highlighting this method’s ability to fabricate complex architectures with controlled morphologies and thermomechanical response.

Van Meter, Kylie E [Organic Materials Science, San↗
DOE OSTI2025

Efficiently resolving the terrestrial-aquatic interface in E3SM with sub-grid methods to improve coastal simulations (Final Technical Report)

The broad goal of this project was to extend the capabilities of MPAS‐Ocean, the ocean component of DOE’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), to better resolve the hydrodynamics of the terrestrial‐aquatic interface without significantly increasing computing resource requirements. Specifically, our goal was to better resolve the small-scale features across the terrestrial‐aquatic interface which includes the low lying coastal floodplain and a dendritic network of hydraulically efficient channels connected to estuarine systems and back bays, barrier islands and high energy inlets. The processes driving flow across the terrestrial‐aquatic interface include upland and floodplain hydrology, tides, wind and atmospheric pressure (including coastally generated storm surge across continental shelves and within estuaries and bays), wind waves and water temperature and salinity gradients.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Monte Carlo method for constructing confidence intervals with unconstrained and constrained nuisance parameters in the NOvA experiment

Measuring observables to constrain models using maximum-likelihood estimation is fundamental to many physics experiments. Wilks' theorem provides a simple way to construct confidence intervals on model parameters, but it only applies under certain conditions. These conditions, such as nested hypotheses and unbounded parameters, are often violated in neutrino oscillation measurements and other experimental scenarios. Monte Carlo methods can address these issues, albeit at increased computational cost. In the presence of nuisance parameters, however, the best way to implement a Monte Carlo method is ambiguous. Furthermore, this paper documents the method selected by the NOvA experiment, the profile construction. It presents the toy studies that informed the choice of method, details of its implementation, and tests performed to validate it. It also includes some practical considerations which may be of use to others choosing to use the profile construction.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Sensitivity analysis of numerical modeling input parameters on floating offshore wind turbine loads in extreme idling conditions

Abstract. Floating offshore wind turbine (FOWT) systems are subject to complex environmental loads, with significant potential for damage in extreme storm conditions. Design simulations in these conditions are required to assess the survivability of the device with some level of confidence. Aero-hydro-servo-elastic engineering tools can be used with a reasonable balance of accuracy and computational efficiency. The models require many input parameters to describe the air and water conditions, the system properties, and the load calculations. Each of these parameters has some possible range, due to either statistical uncertainty or variations with time. Variation in the input parameters can have important effects on the uncertainty in the resulting loads, but it is not practical to perform detailed assessments of the impact of this uncertainty for every input parameter. This work demonstrates a method to identify the input parameters that have the most impact on the loads to focus further inspection. The process is done specifically for extreme storm load cases defined in the International Electrotechnical Commission design requirements for floating offshore wind turbines. The analysis was performed using the International Energy Agency Wind 15 MW offshore reference wind turbine atop the University of Maine VolturnUS-S reference platform in two US offshore wind regions, the Gulf of Maine and Humboldt Bay. It was found that the direction of incident waves and current, yaw misalignment, and the length of mooring line sections were among the primary sensitivities.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Search for a Sub-eV Sterile Neutrino Using Daya Bay’s Full Dataset

This Letter presents results of a search for the mixing of a sub-eV sterile neutrino with three active neutrinos based on the full data sample of the Daya Bay Reactor Neutrino Experiment, collected during 3158 days of detector operation, which contains 5.55 × 106 reactor $\overline{v}$ e candidates identified as inverse beta-decay interactions followed by neutron capture on gadolinium. The analysis benefits from a doubling of the statistics of our previous result and from improvements of several important systematic uncertainties. No significant oscillation due to mixing of a sub-eV sterile neutrino with active neutrinos was found. Exclusion limits are set by both Feldman-Cousins and CLs methods. Light sterile neutrino mixing with sin 2⁡ 2⁢θ 14 ≳ 0.01 can be excluded at 95% confidence level in the region of 0.01 eV 2 ≲ |Δ⁢$m$$^{2}_{41}$| ≲ 0.1 eV 2 . This result represents the world-leading constraints in the region of 2 × 10 –4 eV 2 ≲ |Δ⁢$m$$^{2}_{41}$| ≲ 0.2 eV 2 .

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

The track-length extension fitting algorithm for energy measurement of interacting particles in liquid argon TPCs and its performance with ProtoDUNE-SP data

This paper introduces a novel track-length extension fitting algorithm for measuring the kinetic energies of inelastically interacting particles in liquid argon time projection chambers (LArTPCs). The algorithm finds the most probable offset in track length for a track-like object by comparing the measured ionization density as a function of position with a theoretical prediction of the energy loss as a function of the energy, including models of electron recombination and detector response. The algorithm can be used to measure the energies of particles that interact before they stop, such as charged pions that are absorbed by argon nuclei. The algorithm's energy measurement resolutions and fractional biases are presented as functions of particle kinetic energy and number of track hits using samples of stopping secondary charged pions in data collected by the ProtoDUNE-SP detector, and also in a detailed simulation. Additional studies describe the impact of the dE/dx model on energy measurement performance. The method described in this paper to characterize the energy measurement performance can be repeated in any LArTPC experiment using stopping secondary charged pions.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Low-energy 17 O(𝑛,𝛾)⁢ 18 O reaction within the microscopic potential model and its role for the weak 𝑟 process

The neutron radiative capture reaction 17 O ⁡(𝑛,𝛾) ⁢18 O plays a pivotal role in both nuclear structure studies and astrophysical nucleosynthesis, particularly in the formation of elements during hydrostatic and explosive stellar environments. We calculated the 17 O ⁡(𝑛,𝛾) ⁢18 O cross section within the Skyrme Hartree-Fock potential model and analyzed electric dipole 𝐸⁢1 transitions to both positive- and negative-parity states below the α-decay threshold in 18 O. Our cross sections are significantly different from the data available in commonly used libraries. We further investigate the impact of the new calculated cross section on weak 𝑟-process nucleosynthesis using large-scale reaction network calculations across a wide range of electron fractions and entropies. Our results show that the 17 O ⁡(𝑛,𝛾) ⁢18 O reaction rate significantly influences the production of first 𝑟-process peak elements, such as strontium, under specific astrophysical conditions. This study highlights the importance of accurate nuclear data for light isotopes in modeling heavy-element synthesis and provides updated reaction rates for future nucleosynthesis simulations.

6 ≤ A ≤ 19↗
DOE OSTI2026

Robust calibration of non-perturbative models with history matching

We apply, for the first time, Bayes Linear Emulation and History Matching to the calibration of non-perturbative models in Monte Carlo event generators. In contrast to the usual approach of "Monte Carlo tuning", History Matching does not result in best-fit plus ellipsoidal parameter uncertainty estimates but instead identifies all parameter space regions that are consistent with data. This approach leads to a systematic and robust quantification of parametric uncertainties in the models, especially in those challenging cases where different, possibly disjoint, regions of parameter space deliver similar results, which are usually not properly treated with current methodology. We highlight the power of this method with the hadronisation models available through Sherpa : the built-in cluster fragmentation Ahadic and string fragmentation through an interface to Pythia .

Iskauskas, Andrew [Durham U. (main)] (ORCID:000000↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mass ordering sum rule for the neutrino disappearance channels in T2K, NOvA, and JUNO

We revisit, reformulate, and extend a method for determining the neutrino mass ordering by using precision measurements of the atmospheric Δ m 2 s in both electron and muon neutrino disappearance channels, first proposed by the authors in 2005 [H. Nunokawa , Phys. Rev. D 72, 013009 (2005)]. The mass ordering is a very important outstanding question for our understanding of the elusive neutrino and determination of the mass ordering has consequences to particle physics, nuclear physics, and cosmology. The JUNO reactor experiment will start data taking this year, and the precision of the atmospheric Δ m 2 s from electron antineutrino measurements will improve by a factor of 3 from Daya Bay’s 2.4% to 0.8% within a year. This measurement, when combined with the atmospheric Δ m 2 ’s measurements from T2K and NOvA for muon neutrino disappearance, will contribute substantially to the Δ χ 2 between the two remaining neutrino mass orderings. In this paper we derive for the first time a mass ordering sum rule that can be used to address the possibility that JUNO’s atmospheric Δ m 2 ’s measurement, when combined with other experiments in particular T2K and NOvA, can determine the neutrino mass ordering at the 3 σ confidence level within one year of operation. For a confidence level of 5 σ in a single experiment, we will have to wait until the middle of the next decade when the DUNE experiment is operating.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Optimal Methods for Estimating Cactus Pear Biomass Using Cladode Dimensions of Morphologically Diverse Accessions

Current allometric methods for photosynthetic-stem (cladode) plants, such as cactus pear (Opuntia spp.), require refinement to be used in field settings in which diverse accessions are grown. We analysed cladode dimensional data using 14 accessions representing four species and two hybrids to quantify statistically significant morphological differences among accessions and derived cross-accession models to approximate cladode fresh weight. A Box model using cladode dimensions (e.g., length, width, thickness and diameter) and factorial combinations of these measures (e.g., length*width*thickness*diameter vs. fresh weight) resulted in the highest coefficient of determination (R 2 = 0.95 general fit) across all accessions for estimating fresh weight along with parsimony estimates using the Schwarz–Bayes Criterion (SBC), which assesses the most consistent performance on individual accessions. A Fitting-box modelling approach used the measured cladode area captured using ImageJ (R 2 = 0.93 general fit). Lastly, an Elliptical model used an elliptical approximation for the measured area and performed well over all accessions (R 2 = 0.94 general fit) while avoiding extensive manual measurements. These models meet or exceed the performance of previously published approaches when applied across morphologically diverse accessions, providing efficient tools for nondestructive estimation of cactus pear biomass under the conditions tested.

Opuntia↗