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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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34 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2012

Safety Risk Knowledge Elicitation in Support of Aeronautical R and D Portfolio Management: A Case Study

Aviation is a problem domain characterized by a high level of system complexity and uncertainty. Safety risk analysis in such a domain is especially challenging given the multitude of operations and diverse stakeholders. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) projects that by 2025 air traffic will increase by more than 50 percent with 1.1 billion passengers a year and more than 85,000 flights every 24 hours contributing to further delays and congestion in the sky (Circelli, 2011). This increased system complexity necessitates the application of structured safety risk analysis methods to understand and eliminate where possible, reduce, and/or mitigate risk factors. The use of expert judgments for probabilistic safety analysis in such a complex domain is necessary especially when evaluating the projected impact of future technologies, capabilities, and procedures for which current operational data may be scarce. Management of an R&D product portfolio in such a dynamic domain needs a systematic process to elicit these expert judgments, process modeling results, perform sensitivity analyses, and efficiently communicate the modeling results to decision makers. In this paper a case study focusing on the application of an R&D portfolio of aeronautical products intended to mitigate aircraft Loss of Control (LOC) accidents is presented. In particular, the knowledge elicitation process with three subject matter experts who contributed to the safety risk model is emphasized. The application and refinement of a verbal-numerical scale for conditional probability elicitation in a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is discussed. The preliminary findings from this initial step of a three-part elicitation are important to project management practitioners as they illustrate the vital contribution of systematic knowledge elicitation in complex domains.

Shih, Ann T.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Managing the Risk of Command File Errors

Command File Error (CFE), as defined by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory's (JPL) Mission Operations Assurance (MOA) is, regardless of the consequence on the spacecraft, either: an error in a command file sent to the spacecraft, an error in the process for developing and delivering a command file to the spacecraft, or the omission of a command file that should have been sent to the spacecraft. The risk consequence of a CFE can be mission ending and thus a concern to space exploration projects during their mission operations. A CFE during space mission operations is often the symptom of some kind of imbalance or inadequacy within the system that comprises the hardware & software used for command generation and the human experts involved in this endeavour. As we move into an era of enhanced collaboration with other NASA centers and commercial partners, these systems become more and more complex and hence it is all the more important to formally model and analyze CFEs in order to manage the risk of CFEs. Here we will provide a summary of the ongoing efforts at JPL in this area and also explain some more recent developments in the area of developing quantitative models for the purpose of managing CFE's.

Bayesian Belief Networks↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Risk-Informed Approach to Trustworthiness Assessment in Digital Twins-Based Autonomous Control

In autonomous control systems, digital twins (DTs) are used to perform diagnostic and prognostic functions. The trustworthiness of these DTs is dependent on quality and coverage of the training data, model accuracy and integrity of sensor data. This work introduces a methodology to determine the trustworthiness of a DT system given faulty sensor data using a risk informed approach. Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) are used to propagate uncertainties and determine the probability of trustable recommendations. The decision to trust the control action provided by the DT is based on the DT output, expert opinion, and severity of problems. The performance of DTs is reliant on the data they are trained on. When they encounter out of distribution data, the trustworthiness of the recommendations decreases. To address this issue, we include an expert component that provides input on sensor degradation. For this, we utilize a generative artificial intelligence (AI) model, such as Generative Pretrained Transformer (GPT). The GPT functions as an expert with broad knowledge. The GPT is fine-tuned to understand and discriminate sensor degradation scenarios using manufactured data. This methodology is demonstrated through a case study on a Nearly Autonomous Management and Control System (NAMAC) during a steady state scenario. Various sensor degradation types with different severity levels are considered. Degraded sensor data is processed by the DT system and the fine-tuned GPT. Finally, using the BBN, we combine the GPT information and the DT output with its sources of uncertainty. This provides an output regarding the trustworthiness of the DT recommendation.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

3D Representation of UAV-obstacle Collision Risk Under Off-nominal Conditions

Safe operations of autonomous unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in low-altitude airspace with beyond visual line-of-sight (BVLOS) flights demand robust risk monitoring of airspace as well as of people and property on ground. One of the safety critical factors for UAV flights is the risk of collision with static and dynamic obstacles in proximity to its flight path. This paper presents a detailed formulation of risk of obstacle collision incorporating the effects of off-nominal conditions introduced by component failures, degraded controllability and environmental disturbances such as wind gusts. The risk is represented in terms of a matrix with rows corresponding to the likelihood of occurrence of collision and columns representing severity of collision to the vehicle and surrounding structures. Risk likelihood is generated using a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) that compiles knowledge from related Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEAs) and Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) to determine the probability of collision based on on-board sensor measurements indicative of vehicle health and controllability. Risk severity is computed utilizing a point-mass 3D kinematic model of the vehicle in presence of wind. The proposed risk factor is demonstrated on real flight data from experimental flights of an octocopter at NASA Langley Research Center in presence of simulated obstacles and wind conditions. Effect of varying wind conditions, level of controllability and obstacle measurement noise on the risk factor is demonstrated. The proposed approach enables risk-informed decision making for timely mitigation of current and future unsafe events in autonomous systems.

risk analysis↗
DOE OSTI2023

Dynamic Bayesian Networks for Fault Prognosis

A dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN)-based fault prognosis framework is proposed in this study to predict the future fault probabilities of gradual faults. The proposed framework utilizes the trend in prediction error generated from data driven forecasting models to estimate the future fault beliefs. The accuracy and scalability of the proposed method is evaluated using the data from a Modelica-based virtual testbed. Overall, the developed framework demonstrates good potential in estimating future fault probabilities of gradual faults.

Pradhan, Ojas↗
DOE OSTI2017

Order priors for Bayesian network discovery with an application to malware phylogeny

Here, Bayesian networks have been used extensively to model and discover dependency relationships among sets of random variables. We learn Bayesian network structure with a combination of human knowledge about the partial ordering of variables and statistical inference of conditional dependencies from observed data. Our approach leverages complementary information from human knowledge and inference from observed data to produce networks that reflect human beliefs about the system as well as to fit the observed data. Applying prior beliefs about partial orderings of variables is an approach distinctly different from existing methods that incorporate prior beliefs about direct dependencies (or edges) in a Bayesian network. We provide an efficient implementation of the partial-order prior in a Bayesian structure discovery learning algorithm, as well as an edge prior, showing that both priors meet the local modularity requirement necessary for an efficient Bayesian discovery algorithm. In benchmark studies, the partial-order prior improves the accuracy of Bayesian network structure learning as well as the edge prior, even though order priors are more general. Our primary motivation is in characterizing the evolution of families of malware to aid cyber security analysts. For the problem of malware phylogeny discovery, we find that our algorithm, compared to existing malware phylogeny algorithms, more accurately discovers true dependencies that are missed by other algorithms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Analysis and optimization of seismic monitoring networks with Bayesian optimal experimental design

SUMMARY Monitoring networks increasingly aim to assimilate data from a large number of diverse sensors covering many sensing modalities. Bayesian optimal experimental design (OED) seeks to identify data, sensor configurations or experiments which can optimally reduce uncertainty and hence increase the performance of a monitoring network. Information theory guides OED by formulating the choice of experiment or sensor placement as an optimization problem that maximizes the expected information gain (EIG) about quantities of interest given prior knowledge and models of expected observation data. Therefore, within the context of seismo-acoustic monitoring, we can use Bayesian OED to configure sensor networks by choosing sensor locations, types and fidelity in order to improve our ability to identify and locate seismic sources. In this work, we develop the framework necessary to use Bayesian OED to optimize a sensor network’s ability to locate seismic events from arrival time data of detected seismic phases at the regional-scale. This framework requires five elements: (i) A likelihood function that describes the distribution of detection and traveltime data from the sensor network, (ii) A prior distribution that describes a priori belief about seismic events, (iii) A Bayesian solver that uses a prior and likelihood to identify the posterior distribution of seismic events given the data, (iv) An algorithm to compute EIG about seismic events over a data set of hypothetical prior events, (v) An optimizer that finds a sensor network which maximizes EIG. Once we have developed this framework, we explore many relevant questions to monitoring such as: how to trade off sensor fidelity and earth model uncertainty; how sensor types, number and locations influence uncertainty; and how prior models and constraints influence sensor placement.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2016

BBN-Based Portfolio Risk Assessment for NASA Technology R&D Outcome

The NASA Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) vision falls into six strategic thrusts that are aimed to support the challenges of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). In order to achieve the goals of the ARMD vision, the Airspace Operations and Safety Program (AOSP) is committed to developing and delivering new technologies. To meet the dual challenges of constrained resources and timely technology delivery, program portfolio risk assessment is critical for communication and decision-making. This paper describes how Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is applied to assess the probability of a technology meeting the expected outcome. The network takes into account the different risk factors of technology development and implementation phases. The use of BBNs allows for all technologies of projects in a program portfolio to be separately examined and compared. In addition, the technology interaction effects are modeled through the application of object-oriented BBNs. The paper discusses the development of simplified project risk BBNs and presents various risk results. The results presented include the probability of project risks not meeting success criteria, the risk drivers under uncertainty via sensitivity analysis, and what-if analysis. Finally, the paper shows how program portfolio risk can be assessed using risk results from BBNs of projects in the portfolio.

Geuther, Steven C.↗
DOE OSTI2020

A New Approach to Distributed Hypothesis Testing and Non-Bayesian Learning: Improved Learning Rate and Byzantine-Resilience

Here, we study a setting where a group of agents, each receiving partially informative private signals, seek to collaboratively learn the true underlying state of the world (from a finite set of hypotheses) that generates their joint observation profiles. To solve this problem, we propose a distributed learning rule that differs fundamentally from existing approaches, in that it does not employ any form of “belief-averaging”. Instead, agents update their beliefs based on a min-rule. Under standard assumptions on the observation model and the network structure, we establish that each agent learns the truth asymptotically almost surely. As our main contribution, we prove that with probability 1, each false hypothesis is ruled out by every agent exponentially fast, at a network-independent rate that is strictly larger than existing rates. We then develop a computationally-efficient variant of our learning rule that is provably resilient to agents who do not behave as expected (as represented by a Byzantine adversary model) and deliberately try to spread misinformation.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2013

Modeling to Improve the Risk Reduction Process for Command File Errors

The Jet Propulsion Laboratory has learned that even innocuous errors in the spacecraft command process can have significantly detrimental effects on a space mission. Consequently, such Command File Errors (CFE), regardless of their effect on the spacecraft, are treated as significant events for which a root cause is identified and corrected. A CFE during space mission operations is often the symptom of imbalance or inadequacy within the system that encompasses the hardware and software used for command generation as well as the human experts and processes involved in this endeavor. As we move into an era of increased collaboration with other NASA centers and commercial partners, these systems become more and more complex. Consequently, the ability to thoroughly model and analyze CFEs formally in order to reduce the risk they pose is increasingly important. In this paper, we summarize the results of applying modeling techniques previously developed to the DAWN flight project. The original models were built with the input of subject matter experts from several flight projects. We have now customized these models to address specific questions for the DAWN flight project and formulating use cases to address their unique mission needs. The goal of this effort is to enhance the project's ability to meet commanding reliability requirements for operations and to assist them in managing their Command File Errors.

spacecraft↗
NASA NTRS2004

Filtering in Hybrid Dynamic Bayesian Networks

We demonstrate experimentally that inference in a complex hybrid Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) is possible using the 2 - T i e Slice DBN (2T-DBN) from [Koller & Lerner, 20001 to model fault detection in a watertank system. In [Koller & Lerner, 20001 a generic Particle Filter (PF) is used for inference. We extend the experiment and perform approximate inference using The Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) and the Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF). Furthermore, we combine these techniques in a 'non-strict' Rao-Blackwellisation framework and apply it to the watertank system. We show that UKF and UKF in a PF framework outperfom the generic PF, EKF and EKF in a PF framework with respect to accuracy and robustness in terms of estimation RMSE. Especially we demonstrate the superiority of UKF in a PF framework when our beliefs of how data was generated are wrong. We also show that the choice of network structure is very important for the performance of the generic PF and the EKF algorithms, but not for the UKF algorithms. Furthermore, we investigate the influence of data noise in the water[ank simulation. Theory and implementation is based on the theory presented.

Andersen, Morten Nonboe↗
NASA NTRS2008

Sensor Selection and Data Validation for Reliable Integrated System Health Management

For new access to space systems with challenging mission requirements, effective implementation of integrated system health management (ISHM) must be available early in the program to support the design of systems that are safe, reliable, highly autonomous. Early ISHM availability is also needed to promote design for affordable operations; increased knowledge of functional health provided by ISHM supports construction of more efficient operations infrastructure. Lack of early ISHM inclusion in the system design process could result in retrofitting health management systems to augment and expand operational and safety requirements; thereby increasing program cost and risk due to increased instrumentation and computational complexity. Having the right sensors generating the required data to perform condition assessment, such as fault detection and isolation, with a high degree of confidence is critical to reliable operation of ISHM. Also, the data being generated by the sensors needs to be qualified to ensure that the assessments made by the ISHM is not based on faulty data. NASA Glenn Research Center has been developing technologies for sensor selection and data validation as part of the FDDR (Fault Detection, Diagnosis, and Response) element of the Upper Stage project of the Ares 1 launch vehicle development. This presentation will provide an overview of the GRC approach to sensor selection and data quality validation and will present recent results from applications that are representative of the complexity of propulsion systems for access to space vehicles. A brief overview of the sensor selection and data quality validation approaches is provided below. The NASA GRC developed Systematic Sensor Selection Strategy (S4) is a model-based procedure for systematically and quantitatively selecting an optimal sensor suite to provide overall health assessment of a host system. S4 can be logically partitioned into three major subdivisions: the knowledge base, the down-select iteration, and the final selection analysis. The knowledge base required for productive use of S4 consists of system design information and heritage experience together with a focus on components with health implications. The sensor suite down-selection is an iterative process for identifying a group of sensors that provide good fault detection and isolation for targeted fault scenarios. In the final selection analysis, a statistical evaluation algorithm provides the final robustness test for each down-selected sensor suite. NASA GRC has developed an approach to sensor data qualification that applies empirical relationships, threshold detection techniques, and Bayesian belief theory to a network of sensors related by physics (i.e., analytical redundancy) in order to identify the failure of a given sensor within the network. This data quality validation approach extends the state-of-the-art, from red-lines and reasonableness checks that flag a sensor after it fails, to include analytical redundancy-based methods that can identify a sensor in the process of failing. The focus of this effort is on understanding the proper application of analytical redundancy-based data qualification methods for onboard use in monitoring Upper Stage sensors.

Garg, Sanjay↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Bayesian and HRA-Aided Method for the Novel Reliability Analysis of Software

Technological advancements and nuclear power plant modernization has inspired considerable research in the areas of safety and reliability, yet there remains a lack of consensus for the reliability assessment of digital instrumentation and control (I&C) systems. Motivated by the lack of consensus for reliability analysis methods, this work employs a novel framework that incorporates Bayesian, human reliability, and common-cause failure (CCF) modeling techniques. The novel framework allows the use of state-of-the-art or classical modeling techniques when accounting for human and CCF effects on system reliability. The Bayesian and HRA-Aided Method for the Reliability Analysis of Software (BAHAMAS) is demonstrated by a case study for the quantification of software hazards found in a previous analysis of a digital reactor trip system. The results demonstrate the ability of BAHAMAS to account for human activities during the software development life cycle and their influence on software reliability. BAHAMAS is a flexible tool for extending the coverage of conventional probabilistic risk assessments to include modernized digital I&C systems.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Mass Detection for Heavy-Duty Vehicles using Gaussian Belief Propagation

Predicting vehicle mass is critical to accurately estimate energy use and emissions of commercial trucks. However, data from vehicle telematics is often not at sufficient temporal resolution or accuracy for use in model-based detection methods. In this work, a new statistical mass prediction technique is described for heavy-duty vehicles that incorporates the use Gaussian Belief Propagation (GBP) for probabilistic inference. Similar to Bayesian inference models, the GBP model typically requires less labeled training data than other contemporary machine learning techniques. First, a factor graph is constructed, and a set of Gaussian belief nodes with associated means and variances are fitted to the training data. To better handle noisy input data, the GBP mass prediction model utilizes a k-nearest factors (kNF) algorithm for probabilistic inference on unseen testing data. The proposed method is compared with a classical weighted k-nearest neighbors (kNN) regressor. This statistical kNF-GBP model works even with low-quantity, low-quality initial training data, while being capable of realtime mass estimation. Unlike the kNN regressor, the GBP model produces a measure of uncertainty with its predictions. The proposed method is validated using curve-sampled driving data collected from multiple cloud-connected Class 8 regional haul diesel trucks. Both the kNN regressor and the kNF-GBP mass prediction model were able to predict payload mass with coefficients of determination above 0.97 with minimal data preprocessing.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Inter-Domain Fusion for Enhanced Intrusion Detection in Power Systems: An Evidence Theoretic and Meta-Heuristic Approach

False alerts due to misconfigured or compromised intrusion detection systems (IDS) in industrial control system (ICS) networks can lead to severe economic and operational damage. However, research using deep learning to reduce false alerts often requires the physical and cyber sensor data to be trustworthy. Implicit trust is a major problem for artificial intelligence or machine learning (AI/ML) in cyber-physical system (CPS) security, because when these solutions are most urgently needed is also when they are most at risk (e.g., during an attack). To address this, the Inter-Domain Evidence theoretic Approach for Inference (IDEA-I) is proposed that reframes the detection problem as how to make good decisions given uncertainty. Specifically, an evidence theoretic approach leveraging Dempster–Shafer (DS) combination rules and their variants is proposed for reducing false alerts. A multi-hypothesis mass function model is designed that leverages probability scores obtained from supervised-learning classifiers. Using this model, a location-cum-domain-based fusion framework is proposed to evaluate the detector’s performance using disjunctive, conjunctive, and cautious conjunctive rules. The approach is demonstrated in a cyber-physical power system testbed, and the classifiers are trained with datasets from Man-In-The-Middle attack emulation in a large-scale synthetic electric grid. For evaluating the performance, we consider plausibility, belief, pignistic, and general Bayesian theorem-based metrics as decision functions. To improve the performance, a multi-objective-based genetic algorithm is proposed for feature selection considering the decision metrics as the fitness function. Finally, we present a software application to evaluate the DS fusion approaches with different parameters and architectures.

42 ENGINEERING↗