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DOE OSTI2023

PipeSight: A High-Performance Computing Platform for Pipeline Integrity Management

The Phase I feasibility study completed as part of this project has led to a number of innovative technologies being developed and has laid the foundation for a successful Phase II effort to commercialize a platform for managing the integrity of pipelines for the damage mechanisms of the new, hybrid-energy based economy. To ground the development efforts and direction of the project, an extensive market research and customer discovery effort was undertaken early in Phase I. Through this effort, a number of pipeline owners and operators were interviewed, and the following key findings were discovered about the pipeline industry: • Small pipeline operators do not have the central engineering groups necessary to perform their own independent analysis of inspection data, but instead rely on summarized tally sheets provided to them by inspection service providers. • The time it takes to go from an inspection to a completed engineering assessment, even for small segments of pipeline, can take anywhere from 30-120 days. During this delay, critical threats can (and have been known to) cause failures. • Uncertainty is often not accounted for in the assessment of pipeline integrity. The tally sheets provided by third-party service providers are almost always deterministic in nature, identifying threats that present a concern only to the current (not the future) integrity of the pipeline. • It is uncommon to apply the latest technologies to perform advanced assessments of damaged pipelines. There is a desire to use more advanced analysis capabilities to assess threats. Many pipeline operators indicated that they would often excavate a pipeline to perform an inspection and find that the damage was not as bad as they anticipated, thus using limited resources unnecessarily. Companies are not consistent in their use of inspection data to determine corrosion rates, and those that do only calculate deterministic corrosion rates. • The industry has prominently relied on time-based inspections but has recently started to transition to risk-based inspections. However, there appears to be no uniform guidance on how to do so while properly accounting for all sources of uncertainty. • Companies are not storing inspection data in a manner that allows for the ready determination of temporal trends. • Predictive maintenance principles and practices are beginning to be used by early adopters • Some pipelines are being re-purposed to transport different process fluids than they were designed for, e.g., H 2 and CO 2 rich process streams to serve the new hybrid-energy based economy, which are presenting new integrity concerns for the existing pipeline network that crisscrosses the United States. As a result of these discoveries, we were able to target the development efforts in Phase I to best serve the needs of the industry. In Phase I, we developed a way to correlate multiple large-scale scans of the pipeline to determine a probabilistic corrosion rate that accounts for all sources of error and uncertainty in the inspection process. This probabilistic corrosion rate can be used to predict the future thickness distribution of the pipe wall. We demonstrate how this analysis may be performed in an analytical fashion and has been implemented in such a manner that it can be readily distributed using GPU computing through integration of the Kokkos programming model. We also make a very novel extension of the analytical corrosion rate model to Bayesian Networks (an explainable AI technique) that can account for non-parametric distributions of corrosion rates. With the predictions made above for the probabilistic corrosion rate and corresponding future distribution of the pipe wall thickness, we can assess the integrity of the pipeline through the use of a probabilistic engineering assessment. We developed a novel screening data analysis approach that can rapidly identify ‘hotspots’ (local thin areas) where the integrity of the pipeline is a concern. Once more, we implemented this screening approach in C++ to leverage GPU computing via the Kokkos programming model. After the critical hotspots are identified, we developed a program that can automatically generate an advanced finite element model of the damaged regions. Since the number of damaged regions that require advanced analysis can number in the thousands, we integrated an open-source container-native workflow engine for orchestrating parallel jobs on the cloud. Initially, these advanced numerical models were only designed to account for loading due to internal pressure. However, in a slight pivot from the initial Phase I proposal, we developed a complete pipe stress analysis program (called Simflex) which can simulate the complete pipeline and its response to thermal expansion, pressure, thermal bowing, weight, wind, earthquake, support displacement, support friction and external forces. This pipe stress analysis program was written generically, to handle any piping system, but contains the features needed to model long pipelines (i.e., it incorporates a model for soil mechanics and can account for the nonlinear boundary conditions necessary to simulate long underground pipelines). This pipe stress analysis program can simulate any segment of the pipeline (simple or complex) under any set of conditions and loads, to determine the supplemental loads (axial forces and bending moments) at the location of damage. This enables the most accurate state of stress to be accounted for in the pipeline, which can prove critical when evaluating the integrity of a damaged region. In the process of developing the technologies to perform the integrity assessment of the pipeline, we also extended one of the industry standard approaches for performing the assessment of local thin areas that extend more in the circumferential direction than the longitudinal direction of the pipeline. This approach was presented to the API 579-1/AS ME FFS-1 steering committee in November 2021 for consideration in the next edition of the industry standard for Fitness-For-Service (expected to be released in 2023). To help pipeline operators make decisions with the results on any integrity assessment, we developed a new approach to the life-cycle management of pipelines which uses a Bayesian Decision Network. The network is designed to help pipeline operators plan and prioritize inspection activities and ultimately make smarter, more cost-effective decisions. The Bayesian approach accounts for all sources of uncertainty and carries them through to the final optimal decisions, providing a probabilistic framework for optimizing inspection intervals. The proof-of-concept networks developed in the feasibility study are complete, verified, and are focused on a subset of the pipeline. To expand this novel approach to the scale necessary for an entire network of pipelines in Phase II, we will leverage the DOE-funded Bengi solver for industrial-scale decision making with Bayesian Networks [22]. Once implemented, we will be able to provide the pipeline industry with a much-needed tool for optimal inspection planning using truly explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). To handle all of these advanced capabilities into a cloud-based platform, the architecture of the Equity Engineering Cloud (EEC) was extended to include Argo Workflows, a framework capable of distributing and managing a massive number of jobs that consume their own resources, such that thousands of serial finite element simulations can be run in parallel. As part of this substantial undertaking, we also integrated Argo Continuous Delivery (CD) into the EEC, to aid with the rapid prototyping and iterations that will be imperative to the success of the PipeSight platform’s Agile development process in Phase II. As part of the pipe stress analysis program, we also developed a custom visualizer that leverages the DOE-funded VTK visualization library. We added custom contouring capabilities and a means for interacting visually with both the inputs and outputs of the pipe stress analysis program. We also developed routines for automating the post-processing of the finite element simulations to determine if any failure criteria are met and to visualize the deformations, stresses and strains in ParaView using the exodus II file format (a subset of netCDF).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Bayesian Multi-fidelity Neural Network to Predict Nonlinear Frequency Backbone Curves

The use of structural mechanics models during the design process often leads to the development of models of varying fidelity. Often low-fidelity models are efficient to simulate but lack accuracy, while the high-fidelity counterparts are accurate with less efficiency. Here, this paper presents a multi-fidelity surrogate modeling approach that combines the accuracy of a high-fidelity finite element model with the efficiency of a low-fidelity model to train an even faster surrogate model that parameterizes the design space of interest. The objective of these models is to predict the nonlinear frequency backbone curves of the Tribomechadynamics Research Challenge benchmark structure which exhibits simultaneous nonlinearities from frictional contact and geometric nonlinearity. The surrogate model consists of an ensemble of neural networks that learn the mapping between low and high-fidelity data through nonlinear transformations. Bayesian neural networks are used to assess the surrogate model's uncertainty. Once trained, the multi-fidelity neural network is used to perform sensitivity analysis to assess the influence of the design parameters on the predicted backbone curves. Additionally, Bayesian calibration is performed to update the input parameter distributions to correlate the model parameters to the collection of experimentally measured backbone curves.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2016

Development of a Severe Accident Analysis Engine Using Approximate Reasoning

In hypothetical severe accident scenarios, nuclear power plant safety is challenged by core degradation and release of fission products. To aid the plant operator and technical support center staff, research has been performed to develop understanding of severe accident phenomenology, assessing their risk and devise measures to mitigate accident consequences (Sehgal, 2011). Nuclear power plant accidents involve highly complex physical and chemical interactions, a large number of safety related systems, and emergency operating procedures (EOP) and severe accident management guidelines (SAMG). Large number of factors with uncertainty and stress can overwhelm the operators. The overall objective of the present research is to develop a methodology and tools that an operator can use to predict severe accident progression and make effective decisions to arrest and manage the accident under large uncertainties. Towards this goal, this study examines a novel approach that brings to bear a combined use of techniques in artificial intelligence (Russel and Norvig, 2010), including Bayesian Network (BN), Answer Set Programming (ASP) and Fuzzy Inference (FI) to achieve faster-than-real-time, yet sufficiently accurate analysis of severe accident progression. Bayesian network (BN) is a type of probabilistic graphical models that can be used to represent knowledge and conditional dependencies about an uncertain realm. It is useful for capturing the causal relationships in a complex system. It also allows prediction via Bayesian inference (Kelly and Smith, 2012). It is composed of nodes and edges, which express random variables and probabilistic relationships between the nodes, respectively. This relationship, given by conditional probability is calculated using stochastic methods. The BN is used in several systems for analysis and management of accident risk; e.g. (Knochenhauer and Frid, 2010). In those systems, the nodes or so-called 'effective factors' are presumably known within the network by system descriptions in SAMGs. There are two steps to configure the BN, namely (i) identifying compositions within the network and (ii) defining conditional dependency between nodes. The first step is performed following the spirit of ASP (Baral, 2003) using Prolog (Wielemaker, 2005). Knowledge representation is used to build databases required for processing by ASP. Knowledge representation is defined as the expression of knowledge in a way that is understandable to both human and computers. Originally knowledge indicates data, information and facts. To focus, knowledge should be formed to achieve a goal. In a severe accident, key physics and safety related components status are defined according to a failure mode. The conditional dependencies between nodes are generated by approximate reasoning using Fuzzy inference (Zadeh, 1995). Fuzzy logic is a multiple-valued logic to treat ambiguous features such as linguistic description. It indicates possibility, which is distinguished from probability. Fuzzy set consists of linguistic variables according to the fixed rule. In other words, even uncertain states could be expressed as not binary logic, but as many-value logic by rule-based technology. Fuzzy control system is comprised of Fuzzy inference engine that is performed based on the 'If-Then Rule'. The 'If-Then Rule' is of the following form. If Y1 is B11 and Y2 is B12 then Z is C1. If Y1 is B21 and Y2 is B22 then Z is C2. Y1 and Y2 are inputs, which indicate conditional variables. Z indicates decision-making and both B and C are linguistic variables. With this rule-based technique, the approximate reasoning can be realized by Fuzzy inference. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

State of Stress Uncertainty Quantification and Geomechanical Risk Analysis for Subsurface Engineering

All subsurface stress measurement methods available for deep subsurface applications are indirect and involve a significant amount of uncertainty. Quantifying these uncertainties is critical for applications where the state of stress is a component of a risk analysis with significant safety, environmental, and economic considerations. A publicly available and open source tool called the State of Stress Analysis Tool (SOSAT) has been developed to aid in performing a Bayesian uncertainty quantification and geomechanical risk analysis using many types of commonly available data. A new feature of this tool is using data from the FutureGen 2.0 site. The new feature of the tool was uses information about the absence or presence of borehole breakouts to constrain the state of stress. This new feature allows the user to specify probability distributions for the relevant parameters such as the drilling mud pressure, temperature, and the formation strength properties. The tool computes the posterior joint probability distribution of the horizontal principal stresses. Using random samples from this posterior distribution the tool then computes the probability of activating a critically oriented fault at a range of pore pressures. This latter feature can be used to aid in the assessment of the risk of induced seismicity and leakage in geologic carbon sequestration and enhanced geothermal systems.

Burghardt, Jeffrey A.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Compressed Natural Gas Component Leak Frequency Estimation

The frequency of unintended releases in a compressed natural gas system is an important aspect of the system quantitative risk assessment. The frequencies for possible release scenarios, along with engineering models, are utilized to quantify the risks for compressed natural gas facilities. This report documents component leakage frequencies representative of compressed natural gas components that were estimated as a function of the normalized leak size. A Bayesian statistical method was used which results in leak frequency distributions for each component which represent variation and uncertainty in the leak frequency. The analysis shows that there is high uncertainty in the estimated leak frequencies due to sparsity in compressed natural gas data. These leak frequencies may still be useful in compressed natural gas system risk assessments, as long as this high uncertainty is acknowledged and considered appropriately.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2020

XRD-PUAT (X-Ray Diffraction - Parameter Uncertainty Analysis Toolkit)

This XRD uncertainty toolkit was built to investigate uncertainty and local least squares topology over a specified parameter space on a single histogram in a gpx GSAS-II file. The parameter uncertainty can be investigated using either a frequentist F-test approach or a Bayesian Inference statistical inversion method on a weighted least squares or peak fit refinements.SAND Number: SAND2020-12227 M Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Moore, Alexander↗
DOE OSTI2017

Collaborative simulations and experiments for a novel yield model of coal devolatilization in oxy-coal combustion conditions

Oxy-coal combustion is an emerging low-cost “clean coal” technology for emissions reduction and Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS). The use of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) tools is crucial for the development of cost-effective oxy-fuel technologies and the minimization of environmental concerns at industrial scale. The coupling of detailed chemistry models and CFD simulations is still challenging, especially for large-scale plants, because of the high computational efforts required. The development of scale-bridging models is therefore necessary, to find a good compromise between computational efforts and the physical-chemical modeling precision. This paper presents a procedure for scale-bridging modeling of coal devolatilization, in the presence of experimental error, that puts emphasis on the thermodynamic aspect of devolatilization, namely the final volatile yield of coal, rather than kinetics. The procedure consists of an engineering approach based on dataset consistency and Bayesian methodology including Gaussian-Process Regression (GPR). Experimental data from devolatilization tests carried out in an oxy-coal entrained flow reactor were considered and CFD simulations of the reactor were performed. Jointly evaluating experiments and simulations, a novel yield model was validated against the data via consistency analysis. In parallel, a Gaussian-Process Regression was performed, to improve the understanding of the uncertainty associated to the devolatilization, based on the experimental measurements. Potential model forms that could predict yield during devolatilization were obtained. The set of model forms obtained via GPR includes the yield model that was proven to be consistent with the data. Finally, the overall procedure has resulted in a novel yield model for coal devolatilization and in a valuable evaluation of uncertainty in the data, in the model form, and in the model parameters.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multiscale-Informed Modeling of High Temperature Component Response with Uncertainty Quantification

This report summarizes a joint effort between Argonne National Laboratory, Idaho National Laboratory, and Los Alamos National Laboratory to develop and deploy constitutive models targeted at predicting the life of Grade 91 alloy components subjected to high temperature environments typical of those that structural components in advanced nuclear reactors would experience. Two distinct, but complementary constitutive modeling approaches have been taken here. The first employs a phenomenological viscoplastic model for which parameters have been calibrated based on experimental data for a wide range of Grade 91 alloy that has undergone a variety of processing. A Bayesian approach was used to derive distributions of uncertain parameters for this model based on this data set. The second approach is a reduced order model suitable for engineering-scale analysis that is based on the results of a large set of mesoscale simulations. Mesoscale models allow for the microstructure and composition of a particular alloy to be directly taken into account in the computation of the viscoplastic response, but are computationally expensive, which makes it impractical to directly call those models for the material constitutive response in an engineering-scale simulation. The reduced-order representation of the response of the underlying model used here allows for an engineering-scale model to take into account the characteristics of the underlying microstructure, while only incurring a reasonable computational expense. Both of these approaches have different strengths, and are applicable for different parts of the design/analysis process. The phenomenological models can be readily parameterized based on a set of experimental data for a given class of materials and used for scoping calculations. Once a specific material is chosen and adequately characterized, the reduced order models can accurately predict the response of that specific alloy, and because the models are based on predictive models of the underlying microstructure, they can be used to more confidently predict the response under conditions in regions where there is limited experimental data. Both of these models have been integrated in the Grizzly code, which is used here to perform proof-of-concept uncertainty quantification analyses of a simple component under prototypical conditions. The built- in stochastic analysis capabilities in the MOOSE framework that Grizzly is built on are used here to run large sets of simulations for this uncertainty quantification analysis. As would be expected, because the reduced order models are developed for a much more tightly defined alloy, they predict tighter distributions of the time to failure than the phenomenological models, which are calibrated to a broader set of data. Also important is that these simulations demonstrate that a reduced order modeling approach can be successfully deployed to propagate uncertainties from the material scale to practical engineering-scale component simulations.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2016

Investigation of methodology for uncertainty quantification of model parameters

Quantifying the uncertainty contributors of best-estimate thermal hydraulic code is getting more and more attention in safety analysis of nuclear industry during recent decades. Yet for uncertainties of certain model parameters which may not be directly measured, the quantification process is usually subjective and inaccurate. This paper investigates the statistical methodologies in order to get the probability density function (pdf) of model parameters more objectively based on observed experimental responses. The simplification of mathematical model is described for the parameter estimation, and solutions based on Bayesian theorem and Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) are classified and demonstrated for both deterministic approach and stochastic approach. As an application, the uncertainties of model parameters related to reflood phenomena implemented in RELAP5 code are quantified. It is indicated that the statistical method which is independent of best-estimate code is feasible and easy to apply. And through the check of uncertainty propagation, it demonstrates that the uncertainty bands can envelope most of the experiment measurement with advantage of accuracy. (authors)

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2016

The Casualidad method for uncertainty evaluation of best-estimate system thermal-hydraulics calculations

The present paper deals with the description of the salient features of three independent approaches for estimating uncertainties associated with predictions of complex system codes. The first approach is the 'standard' one and the most used at the industrial level: it is based upon the selection of input uncertain parameters, on assigning related ranges of variations and, possibly, PDF (Probability Density Functions) and on performing a suitable number of code runs to get the combined effect of variation on the results. In the second approach the uncertainty derives from the comparison between relevant measured data and results of corresponding code calculations. The third approach is based on the Bayesian inference technique and on the availability of experimental data by which computer model predictions can be improved and the ranges of variation of (in theory) 'all' input parameters can be characterized. More details are provided in respect with the third approach that has been named CASUALIDAD (Code with the capability of Adjoint Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis by Internal Data Adjustment and assimilation). (authors)

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Understanding Model Inadequacy in TRISO Nuclear Fuel Fission Products Release Models: Empirical and Mechanistic Approaches

The increasing use of tristructural isotropic (TRISO) particle fuel in both advanced and existing reactors necessitates a thorough evaluation of uncertainties and shortcomings in TRISO fission product release models. These inadequacies arise from the simplifications made in computational models compared to experimental data. Utilizing the BISON fuel performance code and experimental data from the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) program provides a unique chance to rigorously assess these inadequacies within a Bayesian uncertainty quantification (UQ) framework. This study contrasts the standard Bayesian framework with the Kennedy-O'Hagan (KOH) framework, which explicitly accounts for modeling inadequacies, in the context of UQ for TRISO silver release models. It examines both the traditional Arrhenius equation and a more advanced lower-length-scale (LLS)-informed model that incorporates microstructure information. The inverse UQ process applied to AGR-2 and AGR-3/4 datasets identified modeling inadequacy as the primary source of uncertainty, with experimental noise also being significant, while model parameter uncertainty was minimal. Both the Arrhenius and LLS-informed models showed similar levels of modeling inadequacy. For forward predictive UQ using the AGR-1 dataset, the KOH framework enhanced the accuracy and quality of quantified uncertainties by approximately 30% and 40%, respectively, compared to the standard Bayesian framework. This improvement was observed for both the Arrhenius and LLS-informed models. At the engineering scale, both models performed similarly, but the LLS-informed model outperformed the Arrhenius equation at the mesoscale. These findings underscore the importance of explicitly considering modeling inadequacy in the UQ process and highlight the need for ongoing refinement of physics-based models to address these shortcomings.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sensitivity Analysis of Particle-In-Cell Modeling Parameters in Settling Bed, Bubbling Fluidized Bed and Circulating Fluidized Bed

The objective of the work presented is to perform a preliminary sensitivity analysis of particle-in-cell (PIC) model parameters when applied to settling bed, bubbling fluidized bed, and circulating fluidized bed simulations. These examples correspond to widely different flow conditions commonly seen in chemical engineering applications. Simulations were performed using the PIC method in the open-source software Multiphase Flow with Interphase eXchanges (MFiX) developed by the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL). As part of the non-intrusive uncertainty quantification (UQ) analysis, simulation campaigns were generated using Nodeworks. Sampling locations or settings for PIC model parameters were determined using the Latin Hypercube method. Response surfaces were created using radial basis functions (RBF), and Sobol’ indices were estimated to quantify the influence of model parameters on the quantities of interest (QoI). This study marks a first step towards systematically determining optimal ranges for model parameters used in MFiX-PIC. Based on limited experience, it is expected that these values would depend strongly on flow conditions. Given the complexity of the multiphase flow systems under analysis, a non-intrusive UQ based approach is used to identify the most influential parameters in each case. This prior knowledge will help in proposing an effective design of experiments (DoE) and determine optimal parameters through techniques such as deterministic or Bayesian calibration, which will be pursued in the future.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2017

Application of Structured Decision Making to Hanford Site Radiological Air Monitoring - 17924

Radiological air monitoring is a component of an Environmental Surveillance (ES) program that has been in operation at the Department of Energy Hanford Site for several decades. The primary objectives of the ES program are protection of human health and the environment (on and off-site) as well as regulatory compliance. The ES program was designed decades ago when the plutonium-production reactors and related facilities at the Hanford Site were operational and air emissions were more widespread and significant than today. We employed a structured decision making (SDM) approach that integrates science with values and preferences to a Hanford Site air monitoring program decision. Specifically, a decision was necessary pertaining to the possible replacement of three air monitoring stations located in the 100 Area of the Hanford Site because the power line that supports these stations was near the end of its lifecycle. Although focused on this specific decision, the SDM model is more broadly applicable to decisions pertaining to adapting the air monitoring network to current Hanford operations. The value focused thinking approach that underlies SDM facilitates transparent and defensible decision making, and aids in communicating monitoring rationale. Some of the fundamental objectives elicited from the decision makers regarding management options for the three air monitoring stations included maximizing the ability to measure releases, minimizing environmental impacts, and maximizing social and economic sustainability. The fundamental objectives were linked to six objectives that could be measured (quantified) to allow a decision-analytic solution to the decision problem. Value functions and preference weights were developed for each of the objectives measures based on information obtained during a project workshop as well as by review and analysis of environmental data. Lastly, a set of five management options was identified that might achieve at least one of the objectives. A Bayes Network was developed as a solution to the decision problem pertaining to the three air stations (the 3 air stations decision). The Bayes Network describes the decision model graphically, and also serves as the computational engine for the decision analysis. The Bayes Network defines the relationship among the five management options and six objectives measures. In addition to the weights and value functions noted above, key inputs to the Bayes Network include a set of probabilities related to the different model states defined by the network. These include the probability of a significant release occurring, the probability that a release would be detected under each of the five management options, and the probability of achieving the other objective measures under each management option. In this manner the Bayesian Network captures the uncertainty in the components of the decision model. Replacing the three air monitoring stations with thermoluminescent dosimeters was identified as the preferred management option. A brief report was developed documenting the SDM model, including the workshop notes and analyses that were used to develop the objectives and model input variable values. This application demonstrates SDM's utility for supporting monitoring program decisions and, critically, providing a transparent and traceable basis for the decision. This relatively simple SDM model also provides a basis for an SDM model for monitoring decisions related to the more complex and holistic goal of achieving ES program objectives. (authors)

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis for Simulation of Hostile Blast Events [Slides]

A mesh convergence study shows that shock arrival times converge for basic flow shots. Sensitivity study reveals a surprisingly high sensitivity to the placement of the HE package. Bayesian inference tools used on the experimental datasets suggest this is a real effect. Sensitivity analysis of ambient conditions such as temperature and pressure reveal minimal effect. Porting of pressure data from QUINOA simulations to perform structural analysis on the aeroshell geometry was successful, and shows a strong dependence of payload response to the angle of attack.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian calibration of irradiated graphite property models under high temperatures

Graphite under high temperatures and irradiation is central to advanced reactors. We develop a Bayesian calibration framework for graphite property models that explicitly represents model-data mismatch via a Gaussian-process discrepancy. The approach propagates uncertainty from parameters, experimental noise, and model form, with a hierarchical variance structure to capture group and cross-group noise. Using two predictive models across five grades (IG-110, NBG-18, PCEA, NBG-17, 2114) and four properties-irradiation-induced dimension change, creep, Young’s modulus change ratio, and coefficient of thermal expansion change ratio-we obtain average predictive-error reductions of 54%, 65%, 17%, and 17% when discrepancy is included. We illustrate engineering impact with a multiphysics model of a very-high-temperature reactor prismatic reflector brick, analyzing stresses under high fluence and temperature. Accounting for model discrepancy markedly improves predictive accuracy and provides a robust basis for reliable graphite component design in advanced reactors.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Atikokan Digital Twin: Machine learning in a biomass energy system

The Atikokan Generating Station, operated by Ontario Power Generation, has a 200 MW, biomass-fired tower boiler that operates on a dispatch schedule with a five-minute cycle. The boiler is generally operated in the range of 40–100 MW using two of five burner levels. In order to optimize boiler performance, we propose the implementation of a unique digital twin. Our digital twin abstraction couples Bayesian inference from science-based models and from observations (machine learning) with decision theory to predict operating-variable set points that optimize the physical asset (the boiler) in the presence of uncertainty (artificial intelligence). We focus this paper on the continuous Bayesian machine learning part of the Atikokan Digital Twin; we discuss decision theory in a companion paper. We identify and learn about 12 operational, model, and measured-output parameters and their uncertainties from high-fidelity, science-based simulations of the Atikokan boiler and from the observed measurements at the power plant. Since the goal of the Atikokan Digital Twin is to implement it online in real time, we require fast function evaluations for the quantities of interest extracted from the simulations in the Bayesian analysis. We use Gaussian process regression/interpolation to create accurate, robust surrogate models. We define the Bayesian priors and likelihood function and solve for the posterior distributions of the 12 parameters. Here we then propagate these distributions (i.e., parameters with uncertainty) into the predicted distributions of 790 quantities of interest to learn about the relative importance of various sources of error including experimental, model, and operating-parameter errors.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Decision Analyses Related to Groundwater Remediation - 17051

Traditional decision analyses of groundwater remediation scenarios frequently fail because the probability of adverse, unanticipated events occurring is often high. This is driven by many factors including that (1) the models developed to represent the flow and transport in contaminated aquifers are typically simpler than reality and do not account for all the important governing processes, (2) probability distributions are assigned to critical performance parameters (such as model inputs or characteristics of the engineered remediation systems) even though some of these parameters might be unknown or not be very well constrained. However, there is a novel decision analysis methodology and a computational tool based on Bayesian Information-Gap Decision Theory (BIG-DT) that are designed to mitigate the shortcomings of the models and probabilistic decision analyses by leveraging a non-probabilistic decision theory -- information-gap decision theory. The new decision analysis methodology considers possible models that have not been explicitly enumerated and does not require us to commit to a particular probability distribution for model and remediation-design parameters. Both the set of possible models and the set of possible probability distributions grow as the degree of uncertainty increases. The fundamental question that BIG-DT asks is 'How large can these sets be before a particular decision results in an undesirable outcome?'. The decision that allows these sets to be the largest is considered to be the best option. In this way, BIG-DT enables robust decision-support for groundwater remediation problems. Here, we apply BIG-DT to a representative groundwater remediation scenario where different options for hydraulic containment and pump and treat are being considered. BIG-DT requires many model runs and high-performance computing resources are needed when complex models are used. We demonstrate the BIG-DT analyses on a series of synthetic problems that are designed to be consistent with real-world problems such as Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) contamination sites. We also discuss a general framework for how the BIG-DT analyses will be carried out at the chromium groundwater contamination site at LANL. BIG-DT is implemented in Julia (a high-level, high-performance dynamic programming language for technical computing) and is part of the MADS framework (http://mads.lanl.gov and http://madsjulia.github.io/Mads.jl). (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗