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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2020

A Second Look at 12 Candidate Dual AGNs Using BAYMAX

We present an analysis of 12 optically selected dual active galactic nucleus (AGN) candidates at z < 0.34. Each candidate was originally identified via double-peaked [O III] λ5007 emission lines and received follow-up Chandra and Hubble Space Telescope (HST) observations. Because the X-ray data are low-count (<100 counts) with small separations (<1''), a robust analysis is necessary for classifying each source. Pairing long-slit [O III] observations with existing Chandra observations, we re-analyze the X-ray observations with Bayesian AnalYsis of AGNs in X-rays to determine whether the X-ray emission from each system is more likely a single or dual point source. We find that 4 of the 12 sources are likely dual X-ray point-source systems. We examine each point source's spectra via a Monte Carlo method that probabilistically identifies the likely origin of each photon. When doing so, we find that (i) the secondary X-ray point sources in two of the systems have L(X)< 10(exp 40) erg/s, such that we cannot rule out a non-AGN origin, (ii) one source has a secondary with L(X)> 10(exp 40) erg/s but a spectrum that is too soft to definitively preclude being X-ray emitting diffuse gas that was photoionized by the primary AGN, and (iii) one system (SDSS J1126+2944) is a dual AGN. Additionally, using complementary HST observations, we analyze a subsample of systems that are visually identified as merging. Our results suggest that dual AGNs may preferentially reside in mergers with small separations, consistent with both simulations and observations.

Adi Foord↗
NASA NTRS2024

Effective structural impact detection and localization using convolutional neural network and Bayesian information fusion with limited sensors

Due to their unpredictable nature, many impact events (e.g., overheight vehicles striking on bridges) go unnoticed or get reported many hours later. However, they can induce structural failures or hidden damage that accelerates the structure’s long-term degradation. Therefore, prompt impact detection and localization strategies are essential for early warning of impact events and rapid maintenance of structures. Most existing impact detection strategies are developed for aircraft composite panels utilizing high-rate synchronized measurement from densely deployed sensors. Limited efforts have been made for infrastructure or human habitats which generally require large-scale but low-rate measurement. In particular, due to harsh environments (e.g., deep space habitats under meteoroids), structural impact localization must be robust to limited sensors (e.g., sensor damage during impacts) and multi-source errors (e.g., measurement errors). In this study, an effective impact detection and localization strategy is proposed using a limited number of vibration measurements, especially in harsh environments (e.g. in deep space). Convolutional neural networks are trained for each sensor node and are fused using Bayesian theory to improve the accuracy of impact localization. Special considerations are paid to evaluate the effect of both measurement error and modeling error in the analysis. The proposed strategy is illustrated using 1D structure, and further validated in 3D geodesic dome structure numerically. The results demonstrate that it can detect and localize impact events accurately and robustly on structures.

Yuguang Fu↗
NASA NTRS2019

An Ensemble of Bayesian Neural Networks for Exoplanetary Atmospheric Retrieval

Machine learning (ML) is now used in many areas of astrophysics, from detecting exoplanets in Kepler transit signals to removing telescope systematics. Recent work demonstrated the potential of using ML algorithms for atmospheric retrieval by implementing a random forest (RF) to perform retrievals in seconds that are consistent with the traditional, computationally expensive nested-sampling retrieval method. We expand upon their approach by presenting a new ML model, plan-net, based on an ensemble of Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) that yields more accurate inferences than the RF for the same data set of synthetic transmission spectra. We demonstrate that an ensemble provides greater accuracy and more robust uncertainties than a single model. In addition to being the first to use BNNs for atmospheric retrieval, we also introduce a new loss function for BNNs that learns correlations between the model outputs. Importantly, we show that designing ML models to explicitly incorporate domain-specific knowledge both improves performance and provides additional insight by inferring the covariance of the retrieved atmospheric parameters. We apply plan-net to the Hubble Space Telescope Wide Field Camera 3 transmission spectrum for WASP-12b and retrieve an isothermal temperature and water abundance consistent with the literature. We highlight that our method is flexible and can be expanded to higher resolution spectra and a larger number of atmospheric parameters.

Adam D. Cobb↗
NASA NTRS2018

Towards a Rigorous Basis for Specific Operations Risk Assessment of UAS

The Specific Operations Risk Assessment (SORA) guidance represents the consensus of various national aviation authorities on a common process to identify, qualitatively assess, and manage the safety risk posed by unmanned aircraft systems (UAS), when preparing the safety case required for regulatory approval to conduct certain types of operations. As such, it can be considered a de facto standard, being increasingly adopted by various relevant stakeholders. This paper first gives an overview of the SORA process and associated methods, identifying a number of inconsistencies in risk identification and assessment, also discussing plausible strategies to close the associated gaps. Then, we give a well-founded basis for the applicable concepts, such as barrier integrity, assurance, and robustness, following which we present a preliminary and simple probabilistic formalization of the underpinning barrier-based safety model. We illustrate our overall approach through a worked example, also discussing how a Bayesian framework can facilitate extending and enhancing our initial formalization. We conclude with a discussion of the opportunities afforded by our approach, such as a well-founded basis for barrier selection, whilst addressing the associated challenges. The main objective of this work is to complement the current SORA guidance through a principled, mathematicallybased approach to risk assessment, particularly when it is applied to higher-risk operational concepts that warrant greater rigor in safety assessment and assurance.

Safety Cases↗
NASA NTRS2021

Radar-Based Bayesian Estimation of Ice Crystal Growth Parameters within a Microphysical Model

The potential for polarimetric Doppler radar measurements to improve predictions of ice microphysical processes within an idealized model–observational framework is examined. In an effort to more rigorously constrain ice growth processes (e.g., vapor deposition) with observations of natural clouds, a novel framework is developed to compare simulated and observed radar measurements, coupling a bulk adaptive-habit model of vapor growth to a polarimetric radar forward model. Bayesian inference on key microphysical model parameters is then used, via a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler, to estimate the probability distribution of the model parameters. The statistical formalism of this method allows for robust estimates of the optimal parameter values, along with (non-Gaussian) estimates of their uncertainty. To demonstrate this framework, observations from Department of Energy radars in the Arctic during a case of pristine ice precipitation are used to constrain vapor deposition parameters in the adaptive habit model. The resulting parameter probability distributions provide physically plausible changes in ice particle density and aspect ratio during growth. A lack of direct constraint on the number concentration produces a range of possible mean particle sizes, with the mean size inversely correlated to number concentration. Consistency is found between the estimated inherent growth ratio and independent laboratory measurements, increasing confidence in the parameter PDFs and demonstrating the effectiveness of the radar measurements in constraining the parameters. The combined Doppler and polarimetric observations produce the highest-confidence estimates of the parameter PDFs, with the Doppler measurements providing a stronger constraint for this case.

Robert S. Schrom↗
NASA NTRS1996

Detection of obstacles on runway using Ego-Motion compensation and tracking of significant features

This report describes a method for obstacle detection on a runway for autonomous navigation and landing of an aircraft. Detection is done in the presence of extraneous features such as tiremarks. Suitable features are extracted from the image and warping using approximately known camera and plane parameters is performed in order to compensate ego-motion as far as possible. Residual disparity after warping is estimated using an optical flow algorithm. Features are tracked from frame to frame so as to obtain more reliable estimates of their motion. Corrections are made to motion parameters with the residual disparities using a robust method, and features having large residual disparities are signaled as obstacles. Sensitivity analysis of the procedure is also studied. Nelson's optical flow constraint is proposed to separate moving obstacles from stationary ones. A Bayesian framework is used at every stage so that the confidence in the estimates can be determined.

Kasturi, Rangachar↗
NASA NTRS2011

Bayesian Software Health Management for Aircraft Guidance, Navigation, and Control

Modern aircraft, both piloted fly-by-wire commercial aircraft as well as UAVs, more and more depend on highly complex safety critical software systems with many sensors and computer-controlled actuators. Despite careful design and V&V of the software, severe incidents have happened due to malfunctioning software. In this paper, we discuss the use of Bayesian networks (BNs) to monitor the health of the on-board software and sensor system, and to perform advanced on-board diagnostic reasoning. We will focus on the approach to develop reliable and robust health models for the combined software and sensor systems.

Schumann, Johann↗
NASA NTRS2005

A Framework for Integration of IVHM Technologies for Intelligent Integration for Vehicle Management

As a part of the overall goal of developing Integrated Vehicle Health Management (IVHM) systems for aerospace vehicles, the NASA Faculty Fellowship Program (NFFP) at Marshall Space Flight Center has performed a pilot study on IVHM principals which integrates researched IVHM technologies in support of Integrated Intelligent Vehicle Management (IIVM). IVHM is the process of assessing, preserving, and restoring system functionality across flight and ground systems (NASA NGLT 2004). The framework presented in this paper integrates advanced computational techniques with sensor and communication technologies for spacecraft that can generate responses through detection, diagnosis, reasoning, and adapt to system faults in support of IIVM. These real-time responses allow the IIVM to modify the effected vehicle subsystem(s) prior to a catastrophic event. Furthermore, the objective of this pilot program is to develop and integrate technologies which can provide a continuous, intelligent, and adaptive health state of a vehicle and use this information to improve safety and reduce costs of operations. Recent investments in avionics, health management, and controls have been directed towards IIVM. As this concept has matured, it has become clear the IIVM requires the same sensors and processing capabilities as the real-time avionics functions to support diagnosis of subsystem problems. New sensors have been proposed, in addition, to augment the avionics sensors to support better system monitoring and diagnostics. As the designs have been considered, a synergy has been realized where the real-time avionics can utilize sensors proposed for diagnostics and prognostics to make better real-time decisions in response to detected failures. IIVM provides for a single system allowing modularity of functions and hardware across the vehicle. The framework that supports IIVM consists of 11 major on-board functions necessary to fully manage a space vehicle maintaining crew safety and mission objectives: Guidance and Navigation; Communications and Tracking; Vehicle Monitoring; Information Transport and Integration; Vehicle Diagnostics; Vehicle Prognostics; Vehicle mission Planning; Automated Repair and Replacement; Vehicle Control; Human Computer Interface; and Onboard Verification and Validation. Furthermore, the presented framework provides complete vehicle management which not only allows for increased crew safety and mission success through new intelligence capabilities, but also yields a mechanism for more efficient vehicle operations. The representative IVHM technologies for IIVH includes: 1) robust controllers for use in re-usable launch vehicles, 2) scaleable/flexible computer platform using heterogeneous communication, 3) coupled electromagnetic oscillators for enhanced communications, 4) Linux-based real-time systems, 5) genetic algorithms, 6) Bayesian Networks, 7) evolutionary algorithms, 8) dynamic systems control modeling, and 9) advanced sensing capabilities. This paper presents IVHM technologies developed under NASA's NFFP pilot project. The integration of these IVHM technologies forms the framework for IIVM.

Paris, Deidre E.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Neural network uncertainty assessment using Bayesian statistics: a remote sensing application

Neural network (NN) techniques have proved successful for many regression problems, in particular for remote sensing; however, uncertainty estimates are rarely provided. In this article, a Bayesian technique to evaluate uncertainties of the NN parameters (i.e., synaptic weights) is first presented. In contrast to more traditional approaches based on point estimation of the NN weights, we assess uncertainties on such estimates to monitor the robustness of the NN model. These theoretical developments are illustrated by applying them to the problem of retrieving surface skin temperature, microwave surface emissivities, and integrated water vapor content from a combined analysis of satellite microwave and infrared observations over land. The weight uncertainty estimates are then used to compute analytically the uncertainties in the network outputs (i.e., error bars and correlation structure of these errors). Such quantities are very important for evaluating any application of an NN model. The uncertainties on the NN Jacobians are then considered in the third part of this article. Used for regression fitting, NN models can be used effectively to represent highly nonlinear, multivariate functions. In this situation, most emphasis is put on estimating the output errors, but almost no attention has been given to errors associated with the internal structure of the regression model. The complex structure of dependency inside the NN is the essence of the model, and assessing its quality, coherency, and physical character makes all the difference between a blackbox model with small output errors and a reliable, robust, and physically coherent model. Such dependency structures are described to the first order by the NN Jacobians: they indicate the sensitivity of one output with respect to the inputs of the model for given input data. We use a Monte Carlo integration procedure to estimate the robustness of the NN Jacobians. A regularization strategy based on principal component analysis is proposed to suppress the multicollinearities in order to make these Jacobians robust and physically meaningful.

Neural Networks (Computer)↗
NASA NTRS2002

Science Target Assessment for Mars Rover Instrument Deployment

This paper introduces the system being developed at NASA Ames Research Center, intended for the Mars '09 Smart Lander, to robustly place sensors or tools against rocks in a single communications cycle. Science targets must be assessed prior to instrument placement in order to segment them from the background and determine where, if possible, to position the instrument. An initial result of this research effort is a novel Bayesian based method for segmenting rocks from the ground using 3D data.

Pedersen, Liam↗
NASA NTRS2015

Piloted Simulator Evaluation of Maneuvering Envelope Information for Flight Crew Awareness

The implementation and evaluation of an efficient method for estimating safe aircraft maneuvering envelopes are discussed. A Bayesian approach is used to produce a deterministic algorithm for estimating aerodynamic system parameters from existing noisy sensor measurements, which are then used to estimate the trim envelope through efficient high- fidelity model-based computations of attainable equilibrium sets. The safe maneuverability limitations are extended beyond the trim envelope through a robust reachability analysis derived from an optimal control formulation. The trim and maneuvering envelope limits are then conveyed to pilots through three axes on the primary flight display. To evaluate the new display features, commercial airline crews flew multiple challenging approach and landing scenarios in the full motion Advanced Concepts Flight Simulator at NASA Ames Research Center, as part of a larger research initiative to investigate the impact on the energy state awareness of the crew. Results show that the additional display features have the potential to significantly improve situational awareness of the flight crew.

maneuvers↗
NASA NTRS2018

Automated Pneumothorax Diagnosis using Deep Neural Networks

Thoracic ultrasound can provide information leading to rapid diagnosis of pneumothorax with improved accuracy over the standard physical examination and with higher sensitivity than anteroposterior chest radiography. However, the clinical We have Furthermore, remote environments, such as the battlefield or deep-space exploration, may lack expertise for diagnosing developed an automated image interpretation pipeline for the analysis of thoracic ultrasound data and the classification of pneumothorax events to provide decision support in such situations. Our pipeline consists of image preprocessing, data augmentation, and deep learning architectures for medical diagnosis. In this work, we demonstrate that robust, accurate interpretation of chest images and video can be achieved using deep neural networks. A number of novel image processing techniques were employed to achieve this result. Affine transformations were applied for data augmentation. Hyperparameters were optimized for learning rate, dropout regularization, batch size, and epoch iteration by a sequential model-based Bayesian approach. In addition, we utilized pretrained architecturesinterpretation of a patient medical image is highly operator dependent. certain pathologies., applying transfer learning and fine-tuning techniques to fully connected layers. Our pipeline yielded binary classification validation accuracies of 98.3% for M-mode images and 99.8% with B-mode video frames.

US Army collaboration↗
NASA NTRS2012

Model-Based Method for Sensor Validation

Fault detection, diagnosis, and prognosis are essential tasks in the operation of autonomous spacecraft, instruments, and in situ platforms. One of NASA s key mission requirements is robust state estimation. Sensing, using a wide range of sensors and sensor fusion approaches, plays a central role in robust state estimation, and there is a need to diagnose sensor failure as well as component failure. Sensor validation can be considered to be part of the larger effort of improving reliability and safety. The standard methods for solving the sensor validation problem are based on probabilistic analysis of the system, from which the method based on Bayesian networks is most popular. Therefore, these methods can only predict the most probable faulty sensors, which are subject to the initial probabilities defined for the failures. The method developed in this work is based on a model-based approach and provides the faulty sensors (if any), which can be logically inferred from the model of the system and the sensor readings (observations). The method is also more suitable for the systems when it is hard, or even impossible, to find the probability functions of the system. The method starts by a new mathematical description of the problem and develops a very efficient and systematic algorithm for its solution. The method builds on the concepts of analytical redundant relations (ARRs).

Vatan, Farrokh↗
NASA NTRS1991

Autoclass: An automatic classification system

The task of inferring a set of classes and class descriptions most likely to explain a given data set can be placed on a firm theoretical foundation using Bayesian statistics. Within this framework, and using various mathematical and algorithmic approximations, the AutoClass System searches for the most probable classifications, automatically choosing the number of classes and complexity of class descriptions. A simpler version of AutoClass has been applied to many large real data sets, has discovered new independently-verified phenomena, and has been released as a robust software package. Recent extensions allow attributes to be selectively correlated within particular classes, and allow classes to inherit, or share, model parameters through a class hierarchy. The mathematical foundations of AutoClass are summarized.

Stutz, John↗
NASA NTRS1991

Bayesian classification theory

The task of inferring a set of classes and class descriptions most likely to explain a given data set can be placed on a firm theoretical foundation using Bayesian statistics. Within this framework and using various mathematical and algorithmic approximations, the AutoClass system searches for the most probable classifications, automatically choosing the number of classes and complexity of class descriptions. A simpler version of AutoClass has been applied to many large real data sets, has discovered new independently-verified phenomena, and has been released as a robust software package. Recent extensions allow attributes to be selectively correlated within particular classes, and allow classes to inherit or share model parameters though a class hierarchy. We summarize the mathematical foundations of AutoClass.

Hanson, Robin↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improved Characterization of PSC Processes Derived from a Third-Generation CALIOP and MLS Detection and Composition Classification Algorithm

The new 3-year CloudSat and CALIPSO Science Team project described in this poster will use a unique combination of data from the Cloud-Aerosol LIdar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) instrument on CALIPSO and the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on Aura, in conjunction with supporting meteorological information and detailed modeling studies, to advance our understanding of polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) processes and their role in ozone depletion. We will develop a third-generation (Gen3) PSC detection and composition algorithm that incorporates a new, more robust two-dimensional, multi-channel CALIOP feature detection scheme (2D-McDA). We will also devise and implement an improved two-dimensional PSC composition classification scheme that utilizes multiple parameters (e.g., CALIOP 532-nm parallel and perpendicular scattering ratios, CALIOP 1064-nm total scattering ratio, MLS HNO3 and H2O, ambient temperature, and temperature histories) in a Bayesian approach to determine the most likely PSC composition and help constrain solid PSC particle number density and size/shape. The combined CALIOP/MLS analyses will allow us to study in detail the full life cycle of PSCs and their resulting impact on gas-phase HNO3 and H2O, which should lead to improved parameterizations of PSC microphysics in global CCMs where detailed particle information is not available. The Gen3 CALIOP PSC algorithm will be a natural stepping-stone toward the analysis of data collected during future spaceborne lidar missions, such as NASA’s Atmosphere Observation System (AtmOS) mission currently scheduled for launch late in this decade. We will also investigate possible trends in PSC occurrence and composition over the entire CALIOP data record and through further comparisons with the Stratospheric Aerosol Measurement (SAM) II solar occultation PSC record from 1979-1989. Finally, we will validate the mountain-wave parameterization and PSC schemes used in the UM-UKCA (Unified Model coupled to the United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosol module) chemistry-climate model through detailed comparisons with earlier CALIOP PSC data products and those developed under this proposal.

CALIPSO↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improved Characterization of PSC Processes Derived from a Third-Generation CALIOP and MLS Detection and Composition Classification Algorithm

The new 3-year CloudSat and CALIPSO Science Team project described in this poster will use a unique combination of data from the Cloud-Aerosol LIdar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) instrument on CALIPSO and the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on Aura, in conjunction with supporting meteorological information and detailed modeling studies, to advance our understanding of polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) processes and their role in ozone depletion. We will develop a third-generation (Gen3) PSC detection and composition algorithm that incorporates a new, more robust two-dimensional, multi-channel CALIOP feature detection scheme (2D-McDA). We will also devise and implement an improved two-dimensional PSC composition classification scheme that utilizes multiple parameters (e.g., CALIOP 532-nm parallel and perpendicular scattering ratios, CALIOP 1064-nm total scattering ratio, MLS HNO3 and H2O, ambient temperature, and temperature histories) in a Bayesian approach to determine the most likely PSC composition and help constrain solid PSC particle number density and size/shape. The combined CALIOP/MLS analyses will allow us to study in detail the full life cycle of PSCs and their resulting impact on gas-phase HNO3 and H2O, which should lead to improved parameterizations of PSC microphysics in global chemistry-climate models (CCMs) where detailed particle information is not available. The Gen3 CALIOP PSC algorithm will be a natural stepping-stone toward the analysis of data collected during future spaceborne lidar missions, such as NASA’s Atmosphere Observation System (AOS) mission currently scheduled for launch late in this decade. We will also investigate possible trends in PSC occurrence and composition over the entire CALIOP data record and through further comparisons with the Stratospheric Aerosol Measurement (SAM) II solar occultation PSC record from 1979-1989. Finally, we will validate the mountain-wave parameterization and PSC schemes used in the UM-UKCA (Unified Model coupled to the United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosol module) CCM through detailed comparisons with earlier CALIOP PSC data products and those developed under this proposal.

CALIPSO↗
NASA NTRS1990

Topics in inference and decision-making with partial knowledge

Two essential elements needed in the process of inference and decision-making are prior probabilities and likelihood functions. When both of these components are known accurately and precisely, the Bayesian approach provides a consistent and coherent solution to the problems of inference and decision-making. In many situations, however, either one or both of the above components may not be known, or at least may not be known precisely. This problem of partial knowledge about prior probabilities and likelihood functions is addressed. There are at least two ways to cope with this lack of precise knowledge: robust methods, and interval-valued methods. First, ways of modeling imprecision and indeterminacies in prior probabilities and likelihood functions are examined; then how imprecision in the above components carries over to the posterior probabilities is examined. Finally, the problem of decision making with imprecise posterior probabilities and the consequences of such actions are addressed. Application areas where the above problems may occur are in statistical pattern recognition problems, for example, the problem of classification of high-dimensional multispectral remote sensing image data.

Safavian, S. Rasoul↗