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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2004

Bayesian-Augmented Identification of Stars in a Narrow View

An algorithm for the identification of stars from a charge-coupled-device (CCD) image of a star field has been extended for use with narrower field-of-view images. Previously, the algorithm had been shown to be effective at a field of view of 8 degrees. This work augments the earlier algorithm using Bayesian decision theory. The new algorithm is shown to be capable of effective star identification down to a field of view of 2 degrees. The algorithm was developed for use in estimating the attitude of a spacecraft and could be used on Earth to help in the identification of stars and other celestial objects for astronomical observations.

Clouse, Daniel↗
NASA NTRS2019

Evaluating Biosignatures for Life Detection

The goal here is to develop a conceptual framework for evaluating the ability of different biosignatures to provide evidence for the presence of life in planned missions or observational studies. The focus is on intrinsic characteristics of biosignatures in a given space environment rather than on their detection, which depends on the current state of technology. Suitable evaluation procedures are based on an extensive body of previous work on related problems in which different options are evaluated to make decisions in business, engineering, medical fields and social or political arena. In these cases, three approaches have proven to be particularly useful. Two of them, signal detection theory (SDT) and Bayesian hypothesis testing are based on probabilities. The third approach, multi-attribute utility (MAU) is based on utility theory.

Pohorille, Andrew↗
NASA NTRS1975

A generalized concept for cost-effective structural design

A generalized concept for cost-effective structural design is introduced. It is assumed that decisions affecting the cost effectiveness of aerospace structures fall into three basic categories: design, verification, and operation. Within these basic categories, certain decisions concerning items such as design configuration, safety factors, testing methods, and operational constraints are to be made. All or some of the variables affecting these decisions may be treated probabilistically. Bayesian statistical decision theory is used as the tool for determining the cost optimum decisions. A special case of the general problem is derived herein, and some very useful parametric curves are developed and applied to several sample structures.

Thomas, J. M.↗
NASA NTRS1991

An overview of the essential differences and similarities of system identification techniques

Information is given in the form of outlines, graphs, tables and charts. Topics include system identification, Bayesian statistical decision theory, Maximum Likelihood Estimation, identification methods, structural mode identification using a stochastic realization algorithm, and identification results regarding membrane simulations and X-29 flutter flight test data.

Mehra, Raman K.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Computational Inference of Vibratory System with Incomplete Modal Information Using Parallel, Interactive and Adaptive Markov Chains

Inverse analysis of vibratory system is an important subject in fault identification, model updating, and robust design and control. It is challenging subject because 1) the problem is oftentimes underdetermined while the measurements are limited and/or incomplete; 2) many combinations of parameters may yield results that are similar with respect to actual response measurements; and 3) uncertainties inevitably exist. The aim of this research is to leverage upon computational intelligence through statistical inference to facilitate an enhanced, probabilistic framework using incomplete modal response measurement. This new framework is built upon efficient inverse identification through optimization, whereas Bayesian inference is employed to account for the effect of uncertainties. To overcome the computational cost barrier, we adopt Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to characterize the target function/distribution. Instead of using single Markov chain in conventional Bayesian approach, we develop a new sampling theory with multiple parallel, interactive and adaptive Markov chains and incorporate it into Bayesian inference. This can harness the collective power of these Markov chains to realize the concurrent search of multiple local optima. The number of required Markov chains and their respective initial model parameters are automatically determined via Monte Carlo simulation-based sample pre-screening followed by K-means clustering analysis. These enhancements can effectively address the aforementioned challenges in finite element inverse analysis. The validity of this framework is systematically demonstrated through case studies.

K Zhou↗
NASA NTRS1974

Reliability-based econometrics of aerospace structural systems: Design criteria and test options

The design criteria and test options for aerospace structural reliability were investigated. A decision methodology was developed for selecting a combination of structural tests and structural design factors. The decision method involves the use of Bayesian statistics and statistical decision theory. Procedures are discussed for obtaining and updating data-based probabilistic strength distributions for aerospace structures when test information is available and for obtaining subjective distributions when data are not available. The techniques used in developing the distributions are explained.

Thomas, J. M.↗
NASA NTRS1972

A Bayesian model for visual space perception

A model for visual space perception is proposed that contains desirable features in the theories of Gibson and Brunswik. This model is a Bayesian processor of proximal stimuli which contains three important elements: an internal model of the Markov process describing the knowledge of the distal world, the a priori distribution of the state of the Markov process, and an internal model relating state to proximal stimuli. The universality of the model is discussed and it is compared with signal detection theory models. Experimental results of Kinchla are used as a special case.

Curry, R. E.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Intelligent machines in the twenty-first century: foundations of inference and inquiry

The last century saw the application of Boolean algebra to the construction of computing machines, which work by applying logical transformations to information contained in their memory. The development of information theory and the generalization of Boolean algebra to Bayesian inference have enabled these computing machines, in the last quarter of the twentieth century, to be endowed with the ability to learn by making inferences from data. This revolution is just beginning as new computational techniques continue to make difficult problems more accessible. Recent advances in our understanding of the foundations of probability theory have revealed implications for areas other than logic. Of relevance to intelligent machines, we recently identified the algebra of questions as the free distributive algebra, which will now allow us to work with questions in a way analogous to that which Boolean algebra enables us to work with logical statements. In this paper, we examine the foundations of inference and inquiry. We begin with a history of inferential reasoning, highlighting key concepts that have led to the automation of inference in modern machine-learning systems. We then discuss the foundations of inference in more detail using a modern viewpoint that relies on the mathematics of partially ordered sets and the scaffolding of lattice theory. This new viewpoint allows us to develop the logic of inquiry and introduce a measure describing the relevance of a proposed question to an unresolved issue. Last, we will demonstrate the automation of inference, and discuss how this new logic of inquiry will enable intelligent machines to ask questions. Automation of both inference and inquiry promises to allow robots to perform science in the far reaches of our solar system and in other star systems by enabling them not only to make inferences from data, but also to decide which question to ask, which experiment to perform, or which measurement to take given what they have learned and what they are designed to understand.

Review↗
NASA NTRS2003

Intelligent Machines in the 21st Century: Automating the Processes of Inference and Inquiry

The last century saw the application of Boolean algebra toward the construction of computing machines, which work by applying logical transformations to information contained in their memory. The development of information theory and the generalization of Boolean algebra to Bayesian inference have enabled these computing machines. in the last quarter of the twentieth century, to be endowed with the ability to learn by making inferences from data. This revolution is just beginning as new computational techniques continue to make difficult problems more accessible. However, modern intelligent machines work by inferring knowledge using only their pre-programmed prior knowledge and the data provided. They lack the ability to ask questions, or request data that would aid their inferences. Recent advances in understanding the foundations of probability theory have revealed implications for areas other than logic. Of relevance to intelligent machines, we identified the algebra of questions as the free distributive algebra, which now allows us to work with questions in a way analogous to that which Boolean algebra enables us to work with logical statements. In this paper we describe this logic of inference and inquiry using the mathematics of partially ordered sets and the scaffolding of lattice theory, discuss the far-reaching implications of the methodology, and demonstrate its application with current examples in machine learning. Automation of both inference and inquiry promises to allow robots to perform science in the far reaches of our solar system and in other star systems by enabling them to not only make inferences from data, but also decide which question to ask, experiment to perform, or measurement to take given what they have learned and what they are designed to understand.

Knuth, Kevin H.↗
NASA NTRS1965

Cognitive signal processing

Unsupervised signal pattern recognition - computer simulation of noisy signal pattern format, and construction of asymptotic Bayes decision boundary form

BAYESIAN STATISTICS↗
NASA NTRS1989

Confidence set interference with a prior quadratic bound

Neyman's (1937) theory of confidence sets is developed as a replacement for Bayesian interference (BI) and stochastic inversion (SI) when the prior information is a hard quadratic bound. It is recommended that BI and SI be replaced by confidence set interference (CSI) only in certain circumstances. The geomagnetic problem is used to illustrate the general theory of CSI.

Backus, George E.↗
NASA NTRS2019

A NICER view of PSR J0030+0451: Implications for the Dense Matter Equation of State

Both the mass and radius of the millisecond pulsar PSRJ0030+0451 have been inferred via pulse-profile modeling of X-ray data obtained by NASA’s Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer (NICER) mission. In this Letter we study the implications of the mass–radius inference reported for this source by Riley et al. for the dense matter equation of state (EoS), in the context of prior information from nuclear physics at low densities. Using a Bayesian framework we infer central densities and EoS properties for two choices of high-density extensions: a piecewise-polytropic model and a model based on assumptions of the speed of sound in dense matter. Around nuclear saturation density these extensions are matched to an EoS uncertainty band obtained from calculations based on chiral effective field theory interactions, which provide a realistic description of atomic nuclei as well as empirical nuclear matter properties within uncertainties. We further constrain EoS expectations with input from the current highest measured pulsar mass; together, these constraints offer a narrow Bayesian prior informed by theory as well as laboratory and astrophysical measurements. The NICER mass–radius likelihood function derived by Riley et al. using pulse-profile modeling is consistent with the highest-density region of this prior. The present relatively large uncertainties on mass and radius for PSR J0030+0451 offer, however, only a weak posterior information gain over the prior. We explore the sensitivity to the inferred geometry of the heated regions that give rise to the pulsed emission, and find a small increase in posterior gain for an alternative (but less preferred) model. Lastly, we investigate the hypothetical scenario of increasing the NICER exposure time for PSRJ0030+0451.

G Raaijmakers↗
NASA NTRS2004

Environmental Monitoring for Situation Assessment using Mobile and Fixed Sensors

This project was co-led by Dr. Sheila McIlraith and Prof. Richard Fikes. Substantial research results and published papers describing those results were produced in multiple technology areas, including the following: 1) Monitoring a Complex Physical System using a Hybrid Dynamic Bayes Net; 2) A Formal Theory of Testing for Dynamical Systems; 3) Diagnosing Hybrid Systems Using a Bayesian Model Selection Approach.

Fikes, Richard↗
NASA NTRS1991

Two papers on feed-forward networks

Connectionist feed-forward networks, trained with back-propagation, can be used both for nonlinear regression and for (discrete one-of-C) classification, depending on the form of training. This report contains two papers on feed-forward networks. The papers can be read independently. They are intended for the theoretically-aware practitioner or algorithm-designer; however, they also contain a review and comparison of several learning theories so they provide a perspective for the theoretician. The first paper works through Bayesian methods to complement back-propagation in the training of feed-forward networks. The second paper addresses a problem raised by the first: how to efficiently calculate second derivatives on feed-forward networks.

Buntine, Wray L.↗
NASA NTRS1993

The inference of mantle viscosity from an inversion of the Fennoscandian relaxation spectrum

The theory of Peltier (1976) for mantle viscosity is adopted, within the framework of nonlinear Bayesian Inference, to invert the Fennoscandian relaxation spectra derived by McConnell (1968). A set of rigorous constraints which all models for the viscosity variation beneath Fennoscandian must satisfy is derived. These constraints are used to test the plausibility of a wide class of viscosity models. It is shown that a model with a weak asthenosphere overlying an isoviscous 10 exp 21 Pa s deep mantle provides to good fit to the relaxation spectrum. This is also true of models with a thin sublithospheric low-viscosity zone overlying a two-layer deep mantle with a moderate jump in viscosity across 670 km depth, and models with a viscosity jump of between four and six across isoviscous upper and lower mantle regions.

Mitrovica, J. X.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Myths and legends in learning classification rules

A discussion is presented of machine learning theory on empirically learning classification rules. Six myths are proposed in the machine learning community that address issues of bias, learning as search, computational learning theory, Occam's razor, universal learning algorithms, and interactive learning. Some of the problems raised are also addressed from a Bayesian perspective. Questions are suggested that machine learning researchers should be addressing both theoretically and experimentally.

Buntine, Wray↗