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34 records · Page 2

An endorsement-based approach to student modeling for planner-controlled intelligent tutoring systems

An approach is described to student modeling for intelligent tutoring systems based on an explicit representation of the tutor's beliefs about the student and the arguments for and against those beliefs (called endorsements). A lexicographic comparison of arguments, sorted according to evidence reliability, provides a principled means of determining those beliefs that are considered true, false, or uncertain. Each of these beliefs is ultimately justified by underlying assessment data. The endorsement-based approach to student modeling is particularly appropriate for tutors controlled by instructional planners. These tutors place greater demands on a student model than opportunistic tutors. Numerical calculi approaches are less well-suited because it is difficult to correctly assign numbers for evidence reliability and rule plausibility. It may also be difficult to interpret final results and provide suitable combining functions. When numeric measures of uncertainty are used, arbitrary numeric thresholds are often required for planning decisions. Such an approach is inappropriate when robust context-sensitive planning decisions must be made. A TMS-based implementation of the endorsement-based approach to student modeling is presented, this approach is compared to alternatives, and a project history is provided describing the evolution of this approach.

Murray, William R.↗

Radiation damage and defect behavior in proton irradiated lithium-counterdoped n+p silicon solar cells

Two lithium-counterdoped n+p silicon solar cells with different lithium concentrations were irradiated by 10-MeV protons. Cell performance was measured as a function of fluence, and it was found that the cell with the highest concentration of lithium had the highest radiation resistance. Deep level transient spectroscopy which showed two deep level defects that were lithium related. Relating the defect energy levels obtained from this study with those from earlier work using 1-MeV electron irradiation shows no correlation of the defect energy levels. There is one marked similarity: the absence of the boron-interstitial-oxygen-interstitial defect. This consistency strengthens the belief that lithium interacts with oxygen to prevent the formation of the boron interstitial-oxygen interstitial defect. The results indicate that, in general, addition of lithium in small amounts to the p-base of a boron doped silicon solar cell such that the base remains p-type, tends to increase the radiation resistance of the cell.

Stupica, John↗

Morpheus: Advancing Technologies for Human Exploration

NASA's Morpheus Project has developed and tested a prototype planetary lander capable of vertical takeoff and landing. Designed to serve as a vertical testbed (VTB) for advanced spacecraft technologies, the vehicle provides a platform for bringing technologies from the laboratory into an integrated flight system at relatively low cost. This allows individual technologies to mature into capabilities that can be incorporated into human exploration missions. The Morpheus vehicle is propelled by a LOX/Methane engine and sized to carry a payload of 1100 lb to the lunar surface. In addition to VTB vehicles, the Project s major elements include ground support systems and an operations facility. Initial testing will demonstrate technologies used to perform autonomous hazard avoidance and precision landing on a lunar or other planetary surface. The Morpheus vehicle successfully performed a set of integrated vehicle test flights including hot-fire and tethered hover tests, leading up to un-tethered free-flights. The initial phase of this development and testing campaign is being conducted on-site at the Johnson Space Center (JSC), with the first fully integrated vehicle firing its engine less than one year after project initiation. Designed, developed, manufactured and operated in-house by engineers at JSC, the Morpheus Project represents an unprecedented departure from recent NASA programs that traditionally require longer, more expensive development lifecycles and testing at remote, dedicated testing facilities. Morpheus testing includes three major types of integrated tests. A hot-fire (HF) is a static vehicle test of the LOX/Methane propulsion system. Tether tests (TT) have the vehicle suspended above the ground using a crane, which allows testing of the propulsion and integrated Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GN&C) in hovering flight without the risk of a vehicle departure or crash. Morpheus free-flights (FF) test the complete Morpheus system without the additional safeguards provided during tether. A variety of free-flight trajectories are planned to incrementally build up to a fully functional Morpheus lander capable of flying planetary landing trajectories. In FY12, these tests will culminate with autonomous flights simulating a 1 km lunar approach trajectory, hazard avoidance maneuvers and precision landing in a prepared hazard field at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC). This paper describes Morpheus integrated testing campaign, infrastructure, and facilities, and the payloads being incorporated on the vehicle. The Project s fast pace, rapid prototyping, frequent testing, and lessons learned depart from traditional engineering development at JSC. The Morpheus team employs lean, agile development with a guiding belief that technologies offer promise, but capabilities offer solutions, achievable without astronomical costs and timelines.

Olansen, Jon B.↗

Wavefront-error evaluation by mathematical analysis of experimental Foucault-test data

The diffraction theory of the Foucault test provides an integral formula expressing the complex amplitude and irradiance distribution in the Foucault pattern of a test mirror (lens) as a function of wavefront error. Recent literature presents methods of inverting this formula to express wavefront error in terms of irradiance in the Foucault pattern. The present paper describes a study in which the inversion formulation was applied to photometric Foucault-test measurements on a nearly diffraction-limited mirror to determine wavefront errors for direct comparison with ones determined from scatter-plate interferometer measurements. The results affirm the practicability of the Foucault test for quantitative wavefront analysis of very small errors, and they reveal the fallacy of the prevalent belief that the test is limited to qualitative use only. Implications of the results with regard to optical testing and the potential use of the Foucault test for wavefront analysis in orbital space telescopes are discussed.

Wilson, R. G.↗

Crack Growth Behavior in the Threshold Region for High Cycle Fatigue Loading

This paper describes the results of a research program conducted to improve the understanding of fatigue crack growth rate behavior in the threshold growth rate region and to answer a question on the validity of threshold region test data. The validity question relates to the view held by some experimentalists that using the ASTM load shedding test method does not produce valid threshold test results and material properties. The question involves the fanning behavior observed in threshold region of da/dN plots for some materials in which the low R-ratio data fans out from the high R-ratio data. This fanning behavior or elevation of threshold values in the low R-ratio tests is generally assumed to be caused by an increase in crack closure in the low R-ratio tests. Also, the increase in crack closure is assumed by some experimentalists to result from using the ASTM load shedding test procedure. The belief is that this procedure induces load history effects which cause remote closure from plasticity and/or roughness changes in the surface morphology. However, experimental studies performed by the authors have shown that the increase in crack closure is a result of extensive crack tip bifurcations that can occur in some materials, particularly in aluminum alloys, when the crack tip cyclic yield zone size becomes less than the grain size of the alloy. This behavior is related to the high stacking fault energy (SFE) property of aluminum alloys which results in easier slip characteristics. Therefore, the fanning behavior which occurs in aluminum alloys is a function of intrinsic dislocation property of the alloy, and therefore, the fanned data does represent the true threshold properties of the material. However, for the corrosion sensitive steel alloys tested in laboratory air, the occurrence of fanning results from fretting corrosion at the crack tips, and these results should not be considered to be representative of valid threshold properties because the fanning is eliminated when testing is performed in dry air.

Forman, R. G.↗

A core handling device for the Mars Sample Return Mission

A core handling device for use on Mars is being designed. To provide a context for the design study, it was assumed that a Mars Rover/Sample Return (MRSR) Mission would have the following characteristics: a year or more in length; visits by the rover to 50 or more sites; 100 or more meter-long cores being drilled by the rover; and the capability of returning about 5 kg of Mars regolith to Earth. These characteristics lead to the belief that in order to bring back a variegated set of samples that can address the range of scientific objetives for a MRSR mission to Mars there needs to be considerable analysis done on board the rover. Furthermore, the discrepancy between the amount of sample gathered and the amount to be returned suggests that there needs to be some method of choosing the optimal set of samples. This type of analysis will require pristine material-unaltered by the drilling process. Since the core drill thermally and mechanically alters the outer diameter (about 10 pct) of the core sample, this outer area cannot be used. The primary function of the core handling device is to extract subsamples from the core and to position these subsamples, and the core itself if needed, with respect to the various analytical instruments that can be used to perform these analyses.

Gwynne, Owen↗

A Unifying View of Estimation and Control Using Belief Propagation With Application to Path Planning

The use of estimation techniques on stochastic models to solve control problems is an emerging paradigm that falls under the rubric of Active Inference (AI) and Control as Inference (CAI). In this work, we use probability propagation on factor graphs to show that various algorithms proposed in the literature can be seen as specific composition rules in a factor graph. We show how this unified approach, presented both in probability space and in log of the probability space, provides a very general framework that includes the Sum-product, the Max-product, Dynamic programming and mixed Reward/Entropy criteria-based algorithms. The framework also expands algorithmic design options that lead to new smoother or sharper policy distributions. We propose original recursions such as: a generalized Sum/Max-product algorithm, a Smooth Dynamic programming algorithm and a modified versions of the Reward/Entropy algorithm. The discussion is carried over with reference to a path planning problem where the recursions that arise from various cost functions, although they may appear similar in scope, bear noticeable differences. We provide a comprehensive table of composition rules and a comparison through simulations, first on a synthetic small grid with a single goal with obstacles, and then on a grid extrapolated from a real-world scene with multiple goals and a semantic map.

Francesco A. N. Palmieri↗

Variation Principles and Applications in the Study of Cell Structure and Aging

In this report we have attempted to show that "some reality lies concealed in biological variation". This "reality" has its principles, laws, mechanisms, and rules, only a few of which we have sketched. A related idea we pursued was that important information may be lost in the process of ignoring frequency distributions of physiological variables (as is customary in experimental physiology and gerontology). We suggested that it may be advantageous to expand one's "statistical field of vision" beyond simple averages +/- standard deviations. Indeed, frequency distribution analysis may make visible some hidden information not evident from a simple qualitative analysis, particularly when the effect of some external factor or condition (e.g., aging, dietary chemicals) is being investigated. This was clearly illustrated by the application of distribution analysis in the study of variation in mouse liver cellular and fine structure, and may be true of fine structural studies in general. In living systems, structure and function interact in a dynamic way; they are "inseparable," unlike in technological systems or machines. Changes in fine structure therefore reflect changes in function. If such changes do not exceed a certain physiologic range, a quantitative analysis of structure will provide valuable information on quantitative changes in function that may not be possible or easy to measure directly. Because there is a large inherent variation in fine structure of cells in a given organ of an individual and among individuals, changes in fine structure can be analyzed only by studying frequency distribution curves of various structural characteristics (dimensions). Simple averages +/- S.D. do not in general reveal all information on the effect of a certain factor, because often this effect is not uniform; on the contrary, this will be apparent from distribution analysis because the form of the curves will be affected. We have also attempted to show in this chapter that similar general statistical principles and mechanisms may be operative in biological and technological systems. Despite the common belief that most biological and technological characteristics of interest have a symmetric bell-shaped (normal or Gaussian) distribution, we have shown that more often than not, distributions tend to be asymmetric and often resemble a so-called log-normal distribution. We saw that at least three general mechanisms may be operative, i.e., nonadditivity of influencing factors, competition among individuals for a common resource, and existence of an "optimum" value for a studied characteristic; more such mechanisms could exist.

Economos, Angelos C.↗

Johnson Space Center Research and Technology Annual Report 1998-1999

As the principle center for NASA's Human Exploration and Development of Space (HEDS) Enterprise, the Johnson Space Center (JSC) leads NASA development of human spacecraft, human support systems, and human spacecraft operations. An important element in implementing this mission, JSC has focused on developing the infrastructure and partnerships that enable the technology development for future NASA programs. In our efforts to develop key technologies, we have found that collaborative relationships with private industry and academia strengthen our capabilities, infuse innovative ideas, and provide alternative applications for our development projects. The American public has entrusted NASA with the responsibility for space technology development, and JSC is committed to the transfer of the technologies that we develop to the private sector for further development and application. It is our belief that commercialization of NASA technologies benefits both American industry and NASA through technology innovation and continued partnering. To this end, we present the 1998-1999 JSC Research and Technology Report. As your guide to the current JSC technologies, this report showcases the projects in work at JSC that may be of interest to U.S. industry, academia, and other government agencies (federal, state, and local). For each project, potential alternative uses and commercial applications are described. To aid in your search, projects are arranged according to the Major Product Groups used by CorpTech to classify and index types of industry. Some projects fall into multiple categories and are placed under the predominant category, for example, an artificial intelligence project is listed under the Computer Software category, while its function is to automate a process (Automation category).

Abbey, George W. S.↗

Applicability of Markets to Global Scheduling in Grids: Critical Examination of General Equilibrium Theory and Market Folklore

Markets are often considered superior to other global scheduling mechanisms for distributed computing systems. This claim is supported by: a casual observation from our every-day life that markets successfully equilibrate supply and demand, and the features of markets which originate in the general equilibrium theory, e.g., efficiency and the lack of necessity of 2 central controller. This paper describes why such beliefs in markets are not warranted. It does so by examining the general equilibrium theory, in terms of scope, abstraction, and interpretation. Not only does the general equilibrium theory fail to provide a satisfactory explanation of actual economies, including a computing-resource economy, it also falls short of supplying theoretical foundations for commonly held views of market desirability. This paper also points out that the argument for the desirability of markets involves circular reasoning and that the desirability can be established only vis-a-vis a scheduling goal. Finally, recasting the conclusion of Arrow's Impossibility Theorem as that for global scheduling, we conclude that there exists no market-based scheduler that is rational (in the sense defined in microeconomic theory), takes into account utility of more than one user, and yet yields a Pareto-optimal outcome for arbitrary user utility functions.

Nakai, Junko↗

NASA Sounding Rocket Program Educational Outreach

Educational and public outreach is a major focus area for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The NASA Sounding Rocket Program (NSRP) shares in the belief that NASA plays a unique and vital role in inspiring future generations to pursue careers in science, mathematics, and technology. To fulfill this vision, the NSRP engages in a variety of educator training workshops and student flight projects that provide unique and exciting hands-on rocketry and space flight experiences. Specifically, the Wallops Rocket Academy for Teachers and Students (WRATS) is a one-week tutorial laboratory experience for high school teachers to learn the basics of rocketry, as well as build an instrumented model rocket for launch and data processing. The teachers are thus armed with the knowledge and experience to subsequently inspire the students at their home institution. Additionally, the NSRP has partnered with the Colorado Space Grant Consortium (COSGC) to provide a "pipeline" of space flight opportunities to university students and professors. Participants begin by enrolling in the RockOn! Workshop, which guides fledgling rocketeers through the construction and functional testing of an instrumentation kit. This is then integrated into a sealed canister and flown on a sounding rocket payload, which is recovered for the students to retrieve and process their data post flight. The next step in the "pipeline" involves unique, user-defined RockSat-C experiments in a sealed canister that allow participants more independence in developing, constructing, and testing spaceflight hardware. These experiments are flown and recovered on the same payload as the RockOn! Workshop kits. Ultimately, the "pipeline" culminates in the development of an advanced, user-defined RockSat-X experiment that is flown on a payload which provides full exposure to the space environment (not in a sealed canister), and includes telemetry and attitude control capability. The RockOn! and RockSat-C elements of the "pipeline" have been successfully demonstrated by five annual flights thus far from Wallops Flight Facility. RockSat-X has successfully flown twice, also from Wallops. The NSRP utilizes launch vehicles comprised of military surplus rocket motors (Terrier-Improved Orion and Terrier-Improved Malemute) to execute these missions. The NASA Sounding Rocket Program is proud of its role in inspiring the "next generation of explorers" and is working to expand its reach to all regions of the United States and the international community as well.

Rosanova, G.↗

Aviation Safety: Modeling and Analyzing Complex Interactions between Humans and Automated Systems

The on-going transformation from the current US Air Traffic System (ATS) to the Next Generation Air Traffic System (NextGen) will force the introduction of new automated systems and most likely will cause automation to migrate from ground to air. This will yield new function allocations between humans and automation and therefore change the roles and responsibilities in the ATS. Yet, safety in NextGen is required to be at least as good as in the current system. We therefore need techniques to evaluate the safety of the interactions between humans and automation. We think that current human factor studies and simulation-based techniques will fall short in front of the ATS complexity, and that we need to add more automated techniques to simulations, such as model checking, which offers exhaustive coverage of the non-deterministic behaviors in nominal and off-nominal scenarios. In this work, we present a verification approach based both on simulations and on model checking for evaluating the roles and responsibilities of humans and automation. Models are created using Brahms (a multi-agent framework) and we show that the traditional Brahms simulations can be integrated with automated exploration techniques based on model checking, thus offering a complete exploration of the behavioral space of the scenario. Our formal analysis supports the notion of beliefs and probabilities to reason about human behavior. We demonstrate the technique with the Ueberligen accident since it exemplifies authority problems when receiving conflicting advices from human and automated systems.

Muti-agent System↗

Probing Millisecond Pulsar Emission Geometry Using Light Curves From the Fermi Large Area Telescope

An interesting new high-energy pulsar sub-population is emerging following early discoveries of gamma-ray millisecond pulsars (MSPs) by the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT). We present results from 3D emission modeling, including the Special Relativistic effects of aberration and time-of-flight delays and also rotational sweepback of 13-field lines, in the geometric context of polar cap (PC), slot gap (SG), outer gap (OG), and two-pole caustic (TPC) pulsar models. In contrast to the general belief that these very old, rapidly-rotating neutron stars (NSs) should have largely pair-starved magnetospheres due to the absence of significant pair production, we find that most of the light curves are best fit by SG and OG models, which indicates the presence of narrow accelerating gaps limited by robust pair production -- even in these pulsars with very low spin-down luminosities. The gamma-ray pulse shapes and relative phase lags with respect to the radio pulses point to high-altitude emission being dominant for all geometries. We also find exclusive differentiation of the current gamma-ray MSP population into two MSP sub-classes: light curve shapes and lags across wavebands impose either pair-starved PC (PSPC) or SG / OG-type geometries. In the first case, the radio pulse has a small lag with respect to the single gamma-ray pulse, while the (first) gamma-ray peak usually trails the radio by a large phase offset in the latter case. Finally, we find that the flux correction factor as a function of magnetic inclination and observer angles is typically of order unity for all models. Our calculation of light curves and flux correction factor f(_, _, P) for the case of MSPs is therefore complementary to the "ATLAS paper" of Watters et al. for younger pulsars.

Venter, Christo↗

Is It Worth It? - the Economics of Reusable Space Transportation

Over the past several decades billions of dollars have been invested by governments and private companies in the pursuit of lower cost access to space through earth-to-orbit (ETO) space transportation systems. Much of that investment has been focused on the development and operation of various forms of reusable transportation systems. From the Space Shuttle to current efforts by private commercial companies, the overarching belief of those making such investments has been that reusing system elements will be cheaper than utilizing expendable systems that involve throwing away costly engines, avionics, and other hardware with each flight. However, the view that reusable systems are ultimately a "better" approach to providing ETO transportation is not held universally by major stakeholders within the space transportation industry. While the technical feasibility of at least some degree of reusability has been demonstrated, there continues to be a sometimes lively debate over the merits and drawbacks of reusable versus expendable systems from an economic perspective. In summary, is it worth it? Based on our many years of direct involvement with the business aspects of several expendable and reusable transportation systems, it appears to us that much of the discussion surrounding reusability is hindered by a failure to clearly define and understand the financial and other metrics by which the financial "goodness" of a reusable or expandable approach is measured. As stakeholders, the different users and suppliers of space transportation have a varied set of criteria for determining the relative economic viability of alternative strategies, including reusability. Many different metrics have been used to measure the affordability of space transportation, such as dollars per payload pound (kilogram) to orbit, cost per flight, life cycle cost, net present value/internal rate of return, and many others. This paper will examine the key considerations that influence stakeholders as they make space transportation investment decisions, including primary metrics by which various stakeholders measure financial goodness and other factors that significantly shape decisions to invest in reusable or expendable systems. It must be noted at the outset that reusable systems take many forms and perform different transportation functions including, but not limited to, ETO payload delivery. The discussion in this paper is limited to the economics of ETO transportation systems.

Webb, Richard↗

Sensor Selection and Data Validation for Reliable Integrated System Health Management

For new access to space systems with challenging mission requirements, effective implementation of integrated system health management (ISHM) must be available early in the program to support the design of systems that are safe, reliable, highly autonomous. Early ISHM availability is also needed to promote design for affordable operations; increased knowledge of functional health provided by ISHM supports construction of more efficient operations infrastructure. Lack of early ISHM inclusion in the system design process could result in retrofitting health management systems to augment and expand operational and safety requirements; thereby increasing program cost and risk due to increased instrumentation and computational complexity. Having the right sensors generating the required data to perform condition assessment, such as fault detection and isolation, with a high degree of confidence is critical to reliable operation of ISHM. Also, the data being generated by the sensors needs to be qualified to ensure that the assessments made by the ISHM is not based on faulty data. NASA Glenn Research Center has been developing technologies for sensor selection and data validation as part of the FDDR (Fault Detection, Diagnosis, and Response) element of the Upper Stage project of the Ares 1 launch vehicle development. This presentation will provide an overview of the GRC approach to sensor selection and data quality validation and will present recent results from applications that are representative of the complexity of propulsion systems for access to space vehicles. A brief overview of the sensor selection and data quality validation approaches is provided below. The NASA GRC developed Systematic Sensor Selection Strategy (S4) is a model-based procedure for systematically and quantitatively selecting an optimal sensor suite to provide overall health assessment of a host system. S4 can be logically partitioned into three major subdivisions: the knowledge base, the down-select iteration, and the final selection analysis. The knowledge base required for productive use of S4 consists of system design information and heritage experience together with a focus on components with health implications. The sensor suite down-selection is an iterative process for identifying a group of sensors that provide good fault detection and isolation for targeted fault scenarios. In the final selection analysis, a statistical evaluation algorithm provides the final robustness test for each down-selected sensor suite. NASA GRC has developed an approach to sensor data qualification that applies empirical relationships, threshold detection techniques, and Bayesian belief theory to a network of sensors related by physics (i.e., analytical redundancy) in order to identify the failure of a given sensor within the network. This data quality validation approach extends the state-of-the-art, from red-lines and reasonableness checks that flag a sensor after it fails, to include analytical redundancy-based methods that can identify a sensor in the process of failing. The focus of this effort is on understanding the proper application of analytical redundancy-based data qualification methods for onboard use in monitoring Upper Stage sensors.

Garg, Sanjay↗

Uncertainty and Intelligence in Computational Stochastic Mechanics

Classical structural reliability assessment techniques are based on precise and crisp (sharp) definitions of failure and non-failure (survival) of a structure in meeting a set of strength, function and serviceability criteria. These definitions are provided in the form of performance functions and limit state equations. Thus, the criteria provide a dichotomous definition of what real physical situations represent, in the form of abrupt change from structural survival to failure. However, based on observing the failure and survival of real structures according to the serviceability and strength criteria, the transition from a survival state to a failure state and from serviceability criteria to strength criteria are continuous and gradual rather than crisp and abrupt. That is, an entire spectrum of damage or failure levels (grades) is observed during the transition to total collapse. In the process, serviceability criteria are gradually violated with monotonically increasing level of violation, and progressively lead into the strength criteria violation. Classical structural reliability methods correctly and adequately include the ambiguity sources of uncertainty (physical randomness, statistical and modeling uncertainty) by varying amounts. However, they are unable to adequately incorporate the presence of a damage spectrum, and do not consider in their mathematical framework any sources of uncertainty of the vagueness type. Vagueness can be attributed to sources of fuzziness, unclearness, indistinctiveness, sharplessness and grayness; whereas ambiguity can be attributed to nonspecificity, one-to-many relations, variety, generality, diversity and divergence. Using the nomenclature of structural reliability, vagueness and ambiguity can be accounted for in the form of realistic delineation of structural damage based on subjective judgment of engineers. For situations that require decisions under uncertainty with cost/benefit objectives, the risk of failure should depend on the underlying level of damage and the uncertainties associated with its definition. A mathematical model for structural reliability assessment that includes both ambiguity and vagueness types of uncertainty was suggested to result in the likelihood of failure over a damage spectrum. The resulting structural reliability estimates properly represent the continuous transition from serviceability to strength limit states over the ultimate time exposure of the structure. In this section, a structural reliability assessment method based on a fuzzy definition of failure is suggested to meet these practical needs. A failure definition can be developed to indicate the relationship between failure level and structural response. In this fuzzy model, a subjective index is introduced to represent all levels of damage (or failure). This index can be interpreted as either a measure of failure level or a measure of a degree of belief in the occurrence of some performance condition (e.g., failure). The index allows expressing the transition state between complete survival and complete failure for some structural response based on subjective evaluation and judgment.

Ayyub, Bilal M.↗