Results for “COVID-19 modeling” — Page 2

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Functional Volume Assessment of an Early Version of the Mars Transit Habitat

During the summer of 2020, the NASA Mars Architecture Team (MAT) conducted a functional volume assessment of the Transit Habitat (TH). The TH has evolved substantially since that time and the current TH does not share the same internal configuration, but the insights gained from the assessment remain relevant. In virtually all architectures involving chemical, electric, or nuclear propulsion, the majority of the crew mission is spent aboard the TH. The Earth to Mars transit durations may vary from architecture to architecture, but all are on the order of hundreds of days, regardless of whether an opposition or conjunction class trajectory is selected, and regardless of whether the propulsion system is chemical, electric, or nuclear. Thus, the TH must provide capabilities appropriate to a very long duration. So, despite significant changes in the current Mars architecture over the past few years, this evaluation still provides useful recommendations in the form of habitability guidance that can be applied to current and future TH concepts. This assessment had six primary objectives: provide a sanity check to the BOC-derived TH layout; understand if we can fit the hardware and functional tasks in the volume; provide a high-level assessment of how aggressive the layout is; generate a list of challenges or assumptions necessary to make it work; generate a list of future work to refine understanding; and identify proposed requirements. All of this information is critical to drive habitat sizing studies and key architecture decisions. It was clear that a human-in-the-loop (HITL) evaluation of some kind would be necessary, but several challenges were immediately identified. The most information could be gleaned from a Desert Research and Technology Studies (DRATS) type of mission operations test (MOT), but the TH concept was too low fidelity to construct the type of prototype necessary to conduct a MOT, nor were their financial resources to do so. The next best option – and really the one most appropriate for the BOC’s stage of maturity – is a Virtual Reality (VR) walk-through evaluation. However, NASA was in a shutdown state due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the VR labs were inaccessible. As a result, a tabletop evaluation was created, using .jpg imagery from the ECM CAD model along with Excel-based datasheets. High-level crew living and working functions within the habitat were identified for evaluation. Questionnaires using Likert scales assessed acceptability of habitat functions and sim quality – the degree to which the function was represented in CAD. This enabled the evaluation to be conducted by personnel working remotely. Each function was evaluated individually along with several overarching habitability parameters and vehicle subsystems. The results of this evaluation are discussed, including methodological challenges and rating challenges. Acceptability results are discussed for functions that the participants were able to rate and participant comments for functions that could not be related are also described. Final conclusions are described, including challenges or assumptions needed to make the TH design acceptable, future work needed to refine understanding of the TH, and proposed habitat requirements based on test data.

Transit Habitat↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Reinvention of Aviation: The Effects of Covid-19 on the Aviation Industry, and Actions Needed to Ensure its Future Success

This research project sought to develop short-term and long-term projections on the outlook of air transportation and to produce relevant recommendations for the direction of NASA aviation research as it adapts to the disrupted industry. We developed a model to estimate airline recovery trajectories, and researched the unique effects of the pandemic on various sectors of aviation. We found that the pandemic highlighted past flaws in the aviation system, creating widespread effects across the industry. As the industry looks towards recovery, we believe that it cannot simply return to 2019 operations, but instead perform a full reinvention to support long-term demand and prepare for future catastrophes. We recommend that NASA seize this opportunity to accelerate innovation through an increased focus on passenger satisfaction, meaningful steps towards sustainability, and significant collaboration with a diverse range of groups.

high school intern project↗

NASA NTRS2020

The Reinvention of Aviation: The Effects of Covid-19 on the Aviation Industry, and Actions Needed to Ensure its Future Success

This research project sought to develop short-term and long-term projections on the outlook of air transportation and to produce relevant recommendations for the direction of NASA aviation research as it adapts to the disrupted industry. We developed a model to estimate airline recovery trajectories, and researched the unique effects of the pandemic on various sectors of aviation. We found that the pandemic highlighted past flaws in the aviation system, creating widespread effects across the industry. As the industry looks towards recovery, we believe that it cannot simply return to 2019 operations, but instead perform a full reinvention to support long-term demand and prepare for future catastrophes. We recommend that NASA seize this opportunity to accelerate innovation through an increased focus on passenger satisfaction, meaningful steps towards sustainability, and significant collaboration with a diverse range of groups.

high school intern project↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NSCOR for Evaluating Risk Factors and Biomarkers for Adaptation and Resilience to Spaceflight: Emotional Valence and Social Processes in ICC/ICE Environments

Space exploration class missions, such as a mission to Mars, will require optimization of human performance, adaptability, and resilience. This NASA Specialized Center of Research (NSCOR) utilizes the NIMH Research Domain Criteria (RDoC) framework to identify biological and behavioral markers of individual social adaptation and emotional resilience (as well as vulnerability) to spaceflight-relevant stressors such as living in extended isolation. The overarching goal of this NSCOR is to obtain novel information to help identify biomarkers of individuals who are resilient and/or adaptable to the stressors of isolated, confined, and controlled (ICC) and isolated, confined, and extreme (ICE) environments.A total of N=90 healthy adult astronaut surrogates are being studied in three spaceflight-analog environments: (1) n=40 healthy adults in the Isolation and Confinement Analog Research Unit (ICARUS), an ICC at the University of Pennsylvania, during 7-day missions, for a target total of 280 subject days; (2) n=32 healthy adult astronaut surrogates studied in NASA’s Human Exploration Research Analog (HERA), an ICC at Johnson Space Center during 45-day missions, for a target total of 2,112 subject days; and (3) n=18 healthy adults in the Alfred-Wegener-Institute’s Neumayer Station III, an ICE in Antarctica, during 14-month missions, for a target total of 7,560 subject days. Dr. Nindl’s Laboratory at the University of Pittsburgh is analyzing a priori selected protein biomarkers in blood, saliva, and urine. Complementary rodent models of exposure to early life stressors, confinement, and isolation are being evaluated at Dr. Hensch’s Laboratory to further validate the neurobehavioral and biological findings from the human studies.Given the inconsistency and varied definition of resilience/adaptation in the scientific literature, the NSCOR team developed a composite resilience/adaptation measure that reflects the most relevant outcomes to resilience/adaptation across psychosocial and neurobehavioral functions, as well as neurocognitive and spaceflight-relevant operational performance. To achieve this, group consensus was attained from subject matter experts to produce a rank-order of importance for each input variable. The final resilience/adaptation score included 36 variables that were collected across spaceflight analogs. As of 10/1/2021, the NSCOR project acquired data on n=27 subjects at ICARUS, n=16 at HERA, and n=18 at Neumayer. The COVID-19 pandemic delayed data acquisition at ICARUS and HERA.Among subjects studied to date, 99% of neural and neurobehavioral data (e.g., neuroimaging for structure and function, behavioral measures) as well as blood, saliva, and urine for biochemical assays have been acquired. For rodent models, Dr. Hensch’s laboratory has established biochemical and behavioral parameters reflecting confinement stress in social networks of mice for comparison to stress responses in the human spaceflight analog environments.Group social behaviors were measured with a Social Network Analysis (SNA) approach to define objective parameters associated with sociability and its plasticity by sex. This analytic approach may help identify a network of individuals who are more effective teammates or more likely to generate new social relationships. Data acquisition, biomarker assessment, and data quality control will continue through September 2022.

D F Dinges↗

NASA NTRS2020

Novel High Barrier Films for Packaging Food and Medicine

Long manned missions require food packaging to maintain food safety, nutrition, and acceptability for the length of 3-5 years1,2 while the shelf life assigned by NASA for current provisions is 18-24 months1. The focus of this design project was to make a polymer film specifically to function as a high oxygen barrier to later be included in an improved multi-layer packaging system of other specialized polymers with capabilities to allow for a 5-year shelf-life. To qualify as a high oxygen barrier film and to be a successful design for the future packaging, the resulting film is required to have an oxygen transmission rate (OTR) less than 0.06 cc/ m2/24 hr/atm, the standard for the current packaging3. This new film was designed to have a decreased permeability by increasing the “tortuous path” a gas molecule travels to permeate through a film. The increase in the “tortuous path” of a gas molecule is accomplished by introducing a 2D material additive. The additive chosen for this project was hexagonal boron nitride (h-BN) which exfoliates into boron nitride nanosheets (BNNs). Nylon 6 was chosen as the candidate for the matrix. This project is required to determine the best methods to synthesize the sample film and then to test the OTR of the film to determine if this design was successful. This project examined methods for pulverizing polymer resin pellets, h-BN exfoliation, and film fabrication using a hot press. This report includes the exfoliation and analysis of h-BN, procedural preparations for films, and a modeling study of estimated OTR of the h-BN/Nylon. The work in this report did not yield a high barrier composite film because of the laboratory closure in response to COVID -19 guidance but provides a concise method of the additive preparation and film synthesis. This gives a good starting point for future research in high barrier films by 2D additive composites.

Polymer, Nylon, PET, boron nitride, nanocomposite↗

NASA NTRS2020

The Reinvention of Aviation: The Effects of Covid-19 on the Aviation Industry, and Actions Needed to Ensure its Future Success

This research project sought to develop short-term and long-term projections on the outlook of air transportation and to produce relevant recommendations for the direction of NASA aviation research as it adapts to the disrupted industry. We developed a model to estimate airline recovery trajectories, and researched the unique effects of the pandemic on various sectors of aviation. We found that the pandemic highlighted past flaws in the aviation system, creating widespread effects across the industry. As the industry looks towards recovery, we believe that it cannot simply return to 2019 operations, but instead perform a full reinvention to support long-term demand and prepare for future catastrophes. We recommend that NASA seize this opportunity to accelerate innovation through an increased focus on passenger satisfaction, meaningful steps towards sustainability, and significant collaboration with a diverse range of groups.

Andres Carranza↗

NASA NTRS2020

Urban Air Mobility: Predictive Modelling on the Behavior of Air-Service Bookings in Metropolitan Areas

The demand for a ride to work without running into the inefficiencies of traffic in a bustling, metropolitan area beckons for a system to tackle on-the ground traffic congestion, thus fueling the need for Urban Air Mobility (UAM). The instant gratification culture, notably its effect on Generation Z, has given way to the nature of impulsive decision making. The 2020 COVID-19 crisis, with its use of tap-to-gratify technology, highlights passengers preferring late booking. This last-minute airport reorganization crisis spearheaded our research goal to create a more user-personalized assessment of cancellation rates. Our research highlights that there will be a market in the 2030s for UAM, short-distance air transportation, and the world must prepare for the challenges that come with this new market. Through a two-part model, we obtained two randomized sets of profiles of user-specific and ridership attributes and their relationship with cancellations. Recommendations for future research include factoring this personalized aspect into cancellation projections to provide reasoned user discounts as well as a remedy for the scheduling chaos that stems from the airport organizational crisis.

Srushti Adesara↗

NASA NTRS2021

The Climate Response to Emissions Reductions due to COVID-19: Initial Results from CovidMIP

Many nations responded to the COVID-19 pandemic by restricting travel and other activities during 2020, resulting in temporarily reduced emissions of CO2, other greenhouse gases and ozone and aerosol precursors. We present the initial results from a coordinated Intercomparison, CovidMIP, of Earth system model simulations which assess the impact on climate of these emissions reductions. Twelve models performed multiple initial-condition ensembles to produce over 300 simulations spanning both initial condition and model structural uncertainty. We find model consensus on reduced aerosol amounts (particularly over southern and eastern Asia) and associated increases in surface shortwave radiation levels. However, any impact on near-surface temperature or rainfall during 2020-2024 is extremely small and is not detectable in this initial analysis. Regional analyses on a finer scale, and closer attention to extremes (especially linked to changes in atmospheric composition and air quality) are required to test the impact of COVID- 19-related emission reductions on near-term climate.

Chris D. Jones↗

NASA NTRS2023

The NASA Astrobiology Program’s Professional Advancement Workshop Series: Next Steps

Introduction: In the modern-day competitive job search, it is not enough for a candidate to have an excellent academic resume. Candidates must also present themselves well in various styles of interviews, have managerial skills, and be capable of engaging in complex interpersonal relationships and team building. The NASA Astrobiology Program’s Professional Advancement Workshop Series (PAWS) addresses the need for professional skills development that is not traditionally taught in graduate programs. PAWS is designed to supplement academic teachings by providing a space where early career scientists can learn new skills to help them explore, interview for, and be hired in the jobs and careers they want. This is especially true for jobs that are outside of the traditional academic “pipeline” (the path of student to postdoc to tenure-track professor). PAWS embraces the braided river model of career development [1], which emphasizes flexibility as a scientist’s needs change throughout their life. PAWS also presents an opportunity for other early career scientists to meet and network with each other outside of conferences and other formal events. This is especially important as the world emerges from the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Finally, PAWS creates an informative space full of resources available to everyone, which lowers institutional barriers regarding knowledge of opportunities and potentially provides mentorship to those in need. Both items are identified as supportive of a more diverse and inclusive future workforce [2–4]. PAWS began in August 2021 and was originally intended to last until the Astrobiology Science Conference in May 2022. The NASA Astrobiology Program initially sponsored PAWS, allowing the PAWS Leadership to bring in expert speakers from outside of NASA. These external speakers exposed the event attendees to new techniques and perspectives. PAWS has been able to continue beyond May 2022 because of many people volunteering their time for panels and a good balance between panels and expert-led workshops. Here, we share how PAWS works, what the results have been so far, and the future plans for PAWS.

Worshop↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Completion of a Geosynchronous Earth Orbit Survey with the Eugene Stansbery-Meter Class Autonomous Telescope

The Eugene Stansbery-Meter Class Autonomous Telescope (ES-MCAT) is the primary optical sensor used by the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) to statistically characterize the geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO) debris environment and support future Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM) releases. The ES-MCAT completed its first optical survey of the GEO region from 2020 to 2022. The primary goal of this survey was to autonomously collect and process GEO data with calculated photometric and astrometric uncertainties. A pointing plan was developed to provide uniform sampling within the region of interest (ROI) while accounting for predicted downtime due to insufficient observing conditions. Detections are autonomously correlated to the Space Surveillance Network (SSN) catalog to determine if objects are correlated targets (CTs) or uncorrelated targets (UCTs), the latter of which are of interest for modeling the GEO orbital debris environment. To assess the size detection sensitivity over time and monitor the general performance of the telescope’s optics and software, the optical throughput of the system and limiting magnitudes are evaluated on a routine basis. While the telescope’s ability to operate autonomously and remotely allowed for the GEO survey to continue throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, travel restrictions hampered routine cleaning of the optics during this time, and the primary mirror degraded enough to require recoating. The mirror was removed in 2022, concluding the first GEO survey. The primary mirror received a new coating designed to be more robust against the harsh environment surrounding the ES-MCAT’s location on Ascension Island, accounting for experience gained during operations over the first GEO survey. In early 2023, the recoated primary mirror was reinstalled, and the second GEO survey was initiated. The primary goal of the second GEO survey is to characterize the evolving GEO debris environment with updated optics, software, and pointing strategies while allowing for the inclusion of non-GEO regimes or those that are outside of the ROI. While the pointing method implemented in the first survey allowed for adequate coverage of the ROI over two years, it has been improved to include pointings that avoid the Moon’s position and the galactic plane to reduce software processing time and maximize the detection capabilities of fainter objects. This method also accounts for the changing weather patterns throughout the year and reduces coverage gaps in the ROI. Provided the success of the first two-year GEO survey using autonomous operations, the ODPO is actively collaborating with the United States Space Force (USSF) to make the ES-MCAT a contributing sensor to the SSN. This paper presents results from the first GEO survey including magnitude distributions and orbital parameters for CTs and UCTs. Details are provided for the automated processing pipeline and the optical system throughput for the previous and current primary mirror coatings. In addition, an updated strategy for the second GEO survey to optimize coverage over the ROI is discussed, as are preliminary results from the ongoing second survey.

Corbin Cruz↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Completion of a Geosynchronous Earth Orbit Survey with the Eugene Stansbery-Meter Class Autonomous Telescope

The Eugene Stansbery-Meter Class Autonomous Telescope (ES-MCAT) is the primary optical sensor used by the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) to statistically characterize the geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO) debris environment and support future Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM) releases. The ES-MCAT completed its first optical survey of the GEO region from 2020 to 2022. The primary goal of this survey was to autonomously collect and process GEO data with calculated photometric and astrometric uncertainties. A pointing plan was developed to provide uniform sampling within the region of interest (ROI) while accounting for predicted downtime due to insufficient observing conditions. Detections are autonomously correlated to the Space Surveillance Network (SSN) catalog to determine if objects are correlated targets (CTs) or uncorrelated targets (UCTs), the latter of which are of interest for modeling the GEO orbital debris environment. To assess the size detection sensitivity over time and monitor the general performance of the telescope’s optics and software, the optical throughput of the system and limiting magnitudes are evaluated on a routine basis. While the telescope’s ability to operate autonomously and remotely allowed for the GEO survey to continue throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, travel restrictions hampered routine cleaning of the optics during this time, and the primary mirror degraded enough to require recoating. The mirror was removed in 2022, concluding the first GEO survey. The primary mirror received a new coating designed to be more robust against the harsh environment surrounding the ES-MCAT’s location on Ascension Island, accounting for experience gained during operations over the first GEO survey. In early 2023, the recoated primary mirror was reinstalled, and the second GEO survey was initiated. The primary goal of the second GEO survey is to characterize the evolving GEO debris environment with updated optics, software, and pointing strategies while allowing for the inclusion of non-GEO regimes or those that are outside of the ROI. While the pointing method implemented in the first survey allowed for adequate coverage of the ROI over two years, it has been improved to include pointings that avoid the Moon’s position and the galactic plane to reduce software processing time and maximize the detection capabilities of fainter objects. This method also accounts for the changing weather patterns throughout the year and reduces coverage gaps in the ROI. Provided the success of the first two-year GEO survey using autonomous operations, the ODPO is actively collaborating with the United States Space Force (USSF) to make the ES-MCAT a contributing sensor to the SSN. This paper presents results from the first GEO survey including magnitude distributions and orbital parameters for CTs and UCTs. Details are provided for the automated processing pipeline and the optical system throughput for the previous and current primary mirror coatings. In addition, an updated strategy for the second GEO survey to optimize coverage over the ROI is discussed, as are preliminary results from the ongoing second survey.

Corbin Cruz↗

NASA NTRS2021

An Innovative Approach to Modeling VIPER Rover Software Life Cycle Cost

NASA’s “Volatiles Investigating Polar Exploration Rover” (VIPER) will be the first robotic mission to prospect for water ice near the south pole of the Moon in late 2023 on a 100-Earth-day mission. The information that the VIPER rover provides will help improve understanding of the composition, distribution, and accessibility of Lunar polar volatiles and will help determine how the Moon’s resources can support future human space exploration. VIPER, however, represents a radical departure from the way that NASA has traditionally developed planetary robotic missions. A key consequence of these differences is that estimating the cost of VIPER’s rover software is challenging and complex.For example, VIPER is being developed using management procedures typically applied to NASA research and technology projects, rather than space flight programs. In addition, key portions of the rover’s software are being designed as ground software to run on mission control computers (rather than on-board the rover as flight software as with prior planetary missions) taking advantage of continuous, interactive data communications between the Moon and Earth and higher performance computing available on the ground. Moreover, the rover’s software is being engineered using Agile software development practices and incorporates a significant amount of open-source, rather than following traditional (spiral, waterfall, etc.) development methods and in-house code. In this paper, we present an innovative process to estimate the life cycle cost of VIPER’s rover software. We first describe how we modeled the architecture and code counts for three software elements: Rover Flight Software (RFSW), Rover Ground Software (RGSW), and Rover Simulation Software (RSIM). We then discuss key challenges and unique aspects of our approach, such as the lack of Lunar rover analogies, the need to integrate and test large open source software, and the strategies developed to account for use of non-space flight management practices and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. We conclude with a summary of our results, including cumulative distribution, nearest neighbors and cluster analysis, as well as heuristics used to confirm the reasonableness of the cost estimate.

Utz, Hans↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Algorithmic Analysis of the Effect of Human Behavior on Future Urban Air Mobility Operations

The demand for a ride to work without running into the inefficiencies of traffic in a bustling, metropolitan area beckons for a system to tackle on-the ground traffic congestion, thus fueling the need for Urban Air Mobility (UAM). The instant gratification culture, notably its effect on Generation Z, has given way to the nature of impulsive decision making. The 2020 COVID-19 crisis, with its use of tap-to-gratify technology, highlights passengers preferring late booking. This last-minute airport reorganization crisis spearheaded our research goal to create a more user-personalized assessment of cancellation rates. Our research highlights that there will be a market in the 2030s for UAM, short-distance air transportation, and the world must prepare for the challenges that come with this new market. Through a two-part model, we obtained two randomized sets of profiles of user-specific and ridership attributes and their relationship with cancellations. Recommendations for future research include factoring this personalized aspect into cancellation projections to provide reasoned user discounts as well as a remedy for the scheduling chaos that stems from the airport organizational crisis.

Harbani Jaggi↗

NASA NTRS2021

Tonlé Sap Food Security and Agriculture II: Evaluating Changes in Ecosystem Vitality and Freshwater Healthin the Tonlé Sap Basin using Remotely Sensed Data

The Tonlé Sap Lake and river basin in central Cambodia provide critical ecosystem services to the region, including fisheries, agricultural irrigation, hydropower, and biodiverse habitats. Deforestation, increased pumping for farming, and effects of climate change such as droughts and forest fires threaten the health of the lake and food security in the region. This project built upon the previous term through a partnership with Conservation International (CI), the Cambodian Ministry of Water Resources and Meteorology, and the Tonlé Sap Authority to assess ecosystem vitality and implement CI’s Freshwater Health Index (FHI) tool, in an effort to prioritize resource expenditure and highlight areas of concern. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic and related travel restrictions, partners had not been able to readily collect in situ data for the past year, which make up the majority of FHI inputs. To help fill this data gap, we developed a methodology for using Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite data to calculate groundwater storage depletion, and a Python Application Programming Interface for processing and formatting remotely-sensed data for the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. We then used SWAT to model nutrient flows and of phosphorous, nitrogen and suspended sediments amounts in the basin from October 2000 to December 2020. These outputs served as inputs for the FHI and provided policy makers with robust monitoring information to aid decision-making in the area and safeguard the lake’s vital fisheries and biodiversity.

Justine Spore↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Cabin Crew Alertness and Performance During Long-Haul Flights

INTRODUCTION: -Sleep loss and circadian disruption pose a significant risk in aviation. -Previous literature has shown that inflight rest facilities influence alertness and performance among pilots, but few studies have evaluated cabin crew. -The aim of this research was to assess alertness and performance among cabin crew members sleeping in different rest locations during a long-haul out-and-back trip. METHODS: -Twenty-nine cabin crewmembers flew the same long-haul route (outbound and inbound). -Participants were randomly assigned to fly on an aircraft with a bunk in both directions or to fly an aircraft with a bunk in one direction and with a high comfort jump seat (HCJS) in the other direction. -Throughout the study they completed a Karolinska Sleepiness Scale (KSS) and a 5-minute Psychomotor Vigilance Task (PVT) at the beginning and at the end of each flight. RESULTS: -A series of mixed-effects models were performed to assess the changes in KSS and PVT when crewmembers slept in the bunk during both directions of flight (bunk-only) compared to when sleep was obtained in the HCJS during one direction and bunk in the other (bunk + HCJS). -There was no significant difference in KSS alertness between the two conditions. - There were no significant differences in PVT response speed or lapses between the two conditions. CONCLUSIONS: -Limitations: small number of participants. Our study stopped abruptly because of the COVID-19 pandemic which limited our sample size. -Further research is needed to understand how other factors such as duty start time and workload might influence the sleep of cabin crewmembers during long-haul flights.

long-haul↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Impact of Air Traffic Reductions during the COVID-19 Pandemic on Aircraft-induced Clouds and their Radiative Effects

Air travel restrictions due to the novel coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic drastically reduced air travel internationally during the spring of 2020. Such an extraordinary disruption of air traffic may have a profound effect on contrail formation that could allow for better quantification and scientific understanding of the radiative impacts of aviation-induced clouds on climate. This investigation synergizes MODIS, CrIS, and GOES-16 satellite analyses with weather analyses, including those from GEOS and MERRA, to compare contrail formation conditions and radiative forcings of linear contrails and thin cirrus detected over the contiguous United States (CONUS) and the North Atlantic for the 2020 air traffic slowdown period with parallel analyses conducted for a baseline period from a previous year with normal air traffic. A consistent analysis system for contrail detection and cloud property retrievals (e.g. optical depth, particle size, and altitude) from satellites, coupled with radiative transfer modeling are applied to characterize and contrast contrail cirrus properties and radiative effects estimated during the pandemic and baseline periods. Temperature and humidity profiles from numerical weather models and hyperspectral infrared measurements are used to estimate the contrail formation potential (CFP) over the study areas in order to help choose the most appropriate baseline period and to account for potential impacts of differences in meteorology on contrail formation and coverage. This study, using NASA satellite data and other assets, is expected to improve our understanding of the relationship between air traffic, contrail cirrus coverage and related impacts in order to better quantify the need for contrail formation mitigation strategies that could reduce aviation effects on climate.

William L Smith↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Decoupling the Effects of Anthropogenic Emission Reductions from the Meteorology and Natural Emissions in TROPOMI NO 2 Retrievals During the 2020 COVID-19 Lockdowns

Satellite measurements during the COVID-19 lockdowns that began in 2020 revealed unprecedented reductions in NO 2 tropospheric vertical column densities (VCD). These reductions have largely been attributed to reduced anthropogenic emissions associated with abrupt decreases in road traffic and other power consuming business activities. Although decreased emissions tended to be the main contributor to the observed NO 2 VCD reduction, meteorological variability also played a role. Whereas the observed VCD changes were predominantly negative in places where public health policies were strictly enforced, meteorology had both positive and negative effects over short time intervals. Here, we present results from a global study of the NO 2 reductions aimed at disentangling the meteorological and natural emission variability from the anthropogenic emissions over the world’s most populated megacities. For this study, NASA’s TROPOMI NO 2 algorithm was used in conjunction with the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) chemical transport model to separate the contributions due emissions and meteorology. A priori NO 2 profiles were generated from two GMI simulations performed for 2020 at a resolution of 0.25° longitude x 0.25° latitude. The first simulation used updated, COVID-impacted NOX emissions based on Forster et al. (2020), while the second simulation used the 2019 emissions with the 2020 meteorology, referred to here as 2020BAU. The 2020BAU data set allowed for the decoupling of the emission component from the meteorology. When compared to the same period in 2019, NO 2 column amounts during the lockdowns were reduced in 35 out of 36 cities. While reduced emissions contributed most to the observed total change in NO 2 during the lockdowns, the effects of meteorology were significant, ranging between 40% (Chennai) and 15% (Beijing). In China, an increase in NO 2 levels due to meteorology were observed in five out of the seven cities considered in the study. Use of different a-priori NO 2 profiles from the two simulations in our TROPOMI retrievals allowed for a determination of retrieval errors that ranged from -1.7% to -11.0%. We used the quality assurance flag > 0.75 to select the highest quality scenes in the study period. Using the GMI, we estimated the sampling biases to be in the range -11% to 10% of the total change for the cities in our study.

Brad Fisher↗

NASA NTRS2023

Impact of COVID-19-related Air Traffic Reductions on the Coverage and Radiative Effects of Linear Persistent Contrails over Conterminous United States and Surrounding Oceanic Routes

The radiative effects of the large-scale air traffic slowdown during Apr and May 2020 due to the international response to the COVID-19 pandemic are estimated by comparing the coverage (CC), optical properties, and radiative forcing of persistent linear contrails over the conterminous United States and two surrounding oceanic air corridors during the slowdown period and a similar baseline period during 2018 and 2019 when air traffic was unrestricted. The detected CC during the slowdown period decreased by an area-averaged mean of 41% for the three analysis boxes. The retrieved contrail optical properties were mostly similar for both periods. Total shortwave contrail radiative forcings during the slowdown were 34 and 42% smaller for Terra and Aqua, respectively. The corresponding differences for longwave contrail radiative forcing were 33% for Terra and 40% for Aqua. To account for the impact of any changes in the atmospheric environment between baseline and slowdown periods on detected CC amounts, the contrail formation potential (CFP) was computed from reanalysis data. In addition, a filtered CFP (fCFP) was also developed to account for factors that may affect contrail formation and visibility of persistent contrails in satellite imagery. The CFP and fCFP were combined with air traffic density data to create empirical models that estimated CC during the baseline and slowdown periods and were compared to the detected CC. The models confirm that decreases in CC and radiative forcing during the slowdown period were mostly due to the reduction in air traffic, and partly due to environmental changes.

contrails↗