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Mapping brucellosis risk in Kenya and its implications for control strategies in sub-Saharan Africa

In Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), effective brucellosis control is limited, in part, by the lack of long-term commitments by governments to control the disease and the absence of reliable national human and livestock population-based data to inform policies. Therefore, we conducted a study to establish the national prevalence and develop a risk map for Brucella spp. in cattle to contribute to plans to eliminate the disease in Kenya by the year 2040. We randomly generated 268 geolocations and distributed them across Kenya, proportionate to the area of each of the five agroecological zones and the associated cattle population. Cattle herds closest to each selected geolocation were identified for sampling. Up to 25 cattle were sampled per geolocation and a semi-structured questionnaire was administered to their owners. We tested 6,593 cattle samples for Brucella immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies using an Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). We assessed potential risk factors and performed spatial analyses and prevalence mapping using approximate Bayesian inference implemented via the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) method. The national Brucella spp. prevalence was 6.8% (95% CI: 6.2–7.4%). Exposure levels varied significantly between agro-ecological zones, with a high of 8.5% in the very arid zone with the lowest agricultural potential relative to a low of 0.0% in the agro-alpine zone with the highest agricultural potential. Additionally, seroprevalence increased with herd size, and the odds of seropositivity were significantly higher for females and adult animals than for males or calves. Similarly, animals with a history of abortion, or with multiple reproductive syndromes had higher seropositivity than those without. At the herd level, the risk of Brucella spp. transmission was higher in larger herds, and herds with a history of reproductive problems such as abortion, giving birth to weak calves, or having swollen testes. Geographic localities with high Brucella seroprevalence occurred in northern, eastern, and southern regions of Kenya all primarily characterized by semi-arid or arid agro-ecological zones dominated by livestock pastoralism interspersed with vast areas with mixed livestock-wildlife systems. The large spatial extent of our survey provides compelling evidence for the widespread geographical distribution of brucellosis risk across Kenya in a manner easily understandable for policymakers. Our findings can provide a basis for risk-stratified pilot studies aiming to investigate the cost-effectiveness and efficacy of singular and combined preventive intervention strategies that seek to inform Kenya’s Brucellosis Control Policy.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Assessing Global Ocean Circulation Sensitivity to Changes in Antarctic Ice Discharge

The principal goal of this research is to assess how projected increases in meltwater discharge and iceberg calving from the Antarctic Ice Sheet will impact climate in the next 250 years. In short, the sensitivity of the global ocean circulation and climate, and in particular the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), to large increases in iceberg calving and meltwater discharges to the Southern Ocean are poorly understood. The requirement to investigate this topic is heightened by growing evidence that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is vulnerable to rapid retreat and collapse through marine-ice-sheet-instability (MISI) on multidecadal-to-centennial timescales. Future model simulations of the AIS show the potential for rapid ice sheet retreat in the next 50 – 300 years, with such a collapse associated with the discharge of enormous volumes of ice and meltwater to the Southern Ocean. This project uses a combination of an ice sheet/shelf model and a fully coupled (ocean-atmosphere-seaice) model (CESM 1.2) to explore the sensitive of global climate to future changes in runoff from the Antarctic continent under future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios IPCC RCP4.5 and 8.5. Overall, accounting for Antarctic meltwater reduces the projected global mean anthropogenic greenhouse warming by up to 2 deg C. during peak WAIS collapse and by ~1 deg. for most of the simulation. In addition, the increased meltwater contribution raises sub-surface ocean temperatures at the Antarctic ice sheet margin by more than 1ºC, such that the ice shelf basal melt rates increase beyond those currently projected. In contrast, the model predicts a strong cooling of both the surface air and ocean temperatures over the Southern Ocean that results in a massive expansion and thickening of the perennial sea-ice. The slow-down in anthropogenic warming also results in the onset of ice-free conditions in the Arctic being delayed in the model by several decades, and the projected slowdown in the AMOC to reduce.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

MPAS-Albany Land Ice (MALI): a variable-resolution ice sheet model for Earth system modeling using Voronoi grids

Abstract. We introduce MPAS-Albany Land Ice (MALI) v6.0, a new variable-resolution land ice model that uses unstructured Voronoi grids on a plane or sphere. MALI is built using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) framework for developing variable-resolution Earth system model components and the Albany multi-physics code base for the solution of coupled systems of partial differential equations, which itself makes use of Trilinos solver libraries. MALI includes a three-dimensional first-order momentum balance solver (Blatter–Pattyn) by linking to the Albany-LI ice sheet velocity solver and an explicit shallow ice velocity solver. The evolution of ice geometry and tracers is handled through an explicit first-order horizontal advection scheme with vertical remapping. The evolution of ice temperature is treated using operator splitting of vertical diffusion and horizontal advection and can be configured to use either a temperature or enthalpy formulation. MALI includes a mass-conserving subglacial hydrology model that supports distributed and/or channelized drainage and can optionally be coupled to ice dynamics. Options for calving include eigencalving , which assumes that the calving rate is proportional to extensional strain rates. MALI is evaluated against commonly used exact solutions and community benchmark experiments and shows the expected accuracy. Results for the MISMIP3d benchmark experiments with MALI's Blatter–Pattyn solver fall between published results from Stokes and L1L2 models as expected. We use the model to simulate a semi-realistic Antarctic ice sheet problem following the initMIP protocol and using 2 km resolution in marine ice sheet regions. MALI is the glacier component of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 1, and we describe current and planned coupling to other E3SM components.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Probabilistic projections of the Amery Ice Shelf catchment, Antarctica, under conditions of high ice-shelf basal melt

Abstract. Antarctica's Lambert Glacier drains about one-sixth of the ice from the East Antarctic Ice Sheet and is considered stable due to the strong buttressing provided by the Amery Ice Shelf. While previous projections of the sea-level contribution from this sector of the ice sheet have predicted significant mass loss only with near-complete removal of the ice shelf, the ocean warming necessary for this was deemed unlikely. Recent climate projections through 2300 indicate that sufficient ocean warming is a distinct possibility after 2100. This work explores the impact of parametric uncertainty on projections of the response of the Lambert–Amery system (hereafter “the Amery sector”) to abrupt ocean warming through Bayesian calibration of a perturbed-parameter ice-sheet model ensemble. We address the computational cost of uncertainty quantification for ice-sheet model projections via statistical emulation, which employs surrogate models for fast and inexpensive parameter space exploration while retaining critical features of the high-fidelity simulations. To this end, we build Gaussian process (GP) emulators from simulations of the Amery sector at a medium resolution (4–20 km mesh) using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS)-Albany Land Ice (MALI) model. We consider six input parameters that control basal friction, ice stiffness, calving, and ice-shelf basal melting. From these, we generate 200 perturbed input parameter initializations using space filling Sobol sampling. For our end-to-end probabilistic modeling workflow, we first train emulators on the simulation ensemble and then calibrate the input parameters using observations of the mass balance, grounding line movement, and calving front movement with priors assigned via expert knowledge. Next, we use MALI to project a subset of simulations to 2300 using ocean and atmosphere forcings from a climate model for both low- and high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios. From these simulation outputs, we build multivariate emulators by combining GP regression with principal component dimension reduction to emulate multivariate sea-level contribution time series data from the MALI simulations. We then use these emulators to propagate uncertainty from model input parameters to predictions of glacier mass loss through 2300, demonstrating that the calibrated posterior distributions have both greater mass loss and reduced variance compared to the uncalibrated prior distributions. Parametric uncertainty is large enough through about 2130 that the two projections under different emission scenarios are indistinguishable from one another. However, after rapid ocean warming in the first half of the 22nd century, the projections become statistically distinct within decades. Overall, this study demonstrates an efficient Bayesian calibration and uncertainty propagation workflow for ice-sheet model projections and identifies the potential for large sea-level rise contributions from the Amery sector of the Antarctic Ice Sheet after 2100 under high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Interferometric Radar Observations of Glaciar San Rafael, Chile

Interferometric radar observations of Glaciar San Rafael, Chile, were collected in October 1994 by NASA's Spaceborne Imaging Radar C (SIR-C) at both L- (24cm) and C-band frequency (5.6cm), with vertical transmit and receive polarization. The C-band data did not yield good geophysical products, because the temporal coherence of the signal was significantly reduced after 24h. The L-band data were, however, successfully employed to map the surface topography of the icefield with a 10m uncertainty in height, and measure ice velocity with a precision of 4 mm/d or 1.4 m/a. The corresponding error in strain rates is 0.05/a at a 30 m horizontal spacing. The one-dimensional interferometric velocities were subsequently converted to horizontal displacements by assuming a flow direction and complemented by feature-tracking results near the calving front. The results provide a comprehensive view of the ice-flow dynamics of Glaciar San Rafael. The glacier has a core of rapid flow, 4.5 km in width and 3.5 degrees in average slope,surrounded by slower moving ice, not by rock. Ice velocity is 2.6 m/d or 0.95 km/a near the equilibrium line altitude (1200m), increasing rapidly before the glacier enters the narrower terminal valley, to reach 17.5 m/d or 6.4 km/a at the calving front. Strain rates are dominated by lateral shearing at the glacier margins (0.4-0.7/a), except for the terminal-valley section, where longitudinal strain rates average close to 1/a. This spectacular longitudinal increase in ice velocity in the last few kilometers may be a fundamental feature of tidewater glaciers.

Rignot, Eric↗

Motion of Major Ice Shelf Fronts in Antarctica from Slant Range Analysis of Radar Altimeter Data, 1978 - 1998

Slant range analysis of radar altimeter data from the Seasat, Geosat, ERS-1 and ERS-2 databases are used to determine barrier location at particular times, and estimate barrier motion (km/yr) for major Antarctic ice shelves. The barrier locations, which are the seaward edges or fronts of floating ice shelves, advance with time as the ice flows from the grounded ice sheets and retreat whenever icebergs calve from the fronts. The analysis covers various multiyear intervals from 1978 to 1998, supplemented by barrier location maps produced elsewhere for 1977 and 1986. Barrier motion is estimated as the ratio between mean annual ice shelf area change for a particular interval, and the length of the discharge periphery. This value is positive if the barrier location progresses seaward, or negative if the barrier location regresses (break-back). Either positive or negative values are lower limit estimates because the method does not detect relatively small area changes due to calving or surge events. The findings are discussed in the context of the three ice shelves that lie in large embayments (the Filchner-Ronne, Amery, and Ross), and marginal ice shelves characterized by relatively short distances between main segments of grounding line and barrier (those in the Queen Maud Land sector between 10.1 deg. W and 32.5 deg. E, and the West and Shackleton ice shelves). All the ice shelves included in the study account for approximately three-fourths of the total ice shelf area of Antarctica, and discharge approximately two-thirds of the total grounded ice area.

Zwally, H. J.↗

Individual thermal profiles as a basis for comfort improvement in space and other environments

BACKGROUND: The development of individualized countermeasures to address problems in thermoregulation is of considerable importance for humans in space and other extreme environments. A methodology is presented for evaluating minimal/maximal heat flux from the total human body and specific body zones, and for assessing individual differences in the efficiency of heat exchange from these body areas. The goal is to apply this information to the design of individualized protective equipment. METHODS: A multi-compartment conductive plastic tubing liquid cooling/warming garment (LCWG) was developed. Inlet water temperatures of 8-45 degrees C were imposed sequentially to specific body areas while the remainder of the garment was maintained at 33 degrees C. RESULTS: There were significant differences in heat exchange level among body zones in both the 8 degrees and 45 degrees C temperature conditions (p < 0.001). The greatest amount of heat was absorbed/released by the following areas: thighs (8 degrees C: -2.12 +/- 0.14 kcal min(-1); 45 degrees C: +1.58 +/- 0.23); torso (8 degrees C: -2.12 +/- 0.13 kcal min(-1); 45 degrees C: +1.31 +/- 0.27); calves (8 degrees C: -1.59 +/- 0.26 kcal min(-1); 45 degrees C: +1.53 +/- 0.24); and forearms (8 degrees C: -1.67 +/- 0.29 kcal x min(-1); 45 degrees C: +1.45 +/- 0.20). These are primarily zones with relatively large muscle mass and adipose tissue. Calculation of absorption/release heat rates standardized per unit tube length and flow rate instead of zonal surface area covered showed that there was significantly greater heat transfer in the head, hands, and feet (p < 0.001). The areas in which there was considerable between-subject variability in rates of heat transfer and thus most informative for individual profile design were the torso, thighs, shoulders, and calves or forearms. CONCLUSIONS: The methodology developed is sensitive to individual differences in the process of heat exchange and variations in different body areas, depending on their size and tissue mass content. The design of individual thermal profiles is feasible for better comfort of astronauts on long-duration missions and personnel in other extreme environments.

NASA Discipline Life Sciences Technologies↗

Efficacy of compression of different capacitance beds in the amelioration of orthostatic hypotension

Orthostatic hypotension (OH) is the most disabling and serious manifestation of adrenergic failure, occurring in the autonomic neuropathies, pure autonomic failure (PAF) and multiple system atrophy (MSA). No specific treatment is currently available for most etiologies of OH. A reduction in venous capacity, secondary to some physical counter maneuvers (e.g., squatting or leg crossing), or the use of compressive garments, can ameliorate OH. However, there is little information on the differential efficacy, or the mechanisms of improvement, engendered by compression of specific capacitance beds. We therefore evaluated the efficacy of compression of specific compartments (calves, thighs, low abdomen, calves and thighs, and all compartments combined), using a modified antigravity suit, on the end-points of orthostatic blood pressure, and symptoms of orthostatic intolerance. Fourteen patients (PAF, n = 9; MSA, n = 3; diabetic autonomic neuropathy, n = 2; five males and nine females) with clinical OH were studied. The mean age was 62 years (range 31-78). The mean +/- SEM orthostatic systolic blood pressure when all compartments were compressed was 115.9 +/- 7.4 mmHg, significantly improved (p < 0.001) over the head-up tilt value without compression of 89.6 +/- 7.0 mmHg. The abdomen was the only single compartment whose compression significantly reduced OH (p < 0.005). There was a significant increase of peripheral resistance index (PRI) with compression of abdomen (p < 0.001) or all compartments (p < 0.001); end-diastolic index and cardiac index did not change. We conclude that denervation increases vascular capacity, and that venous compression improves OH by reducing this capacity and increasing PRI. Compression of all compartments is the most efficacious, followed by abdominal compression, whereas leg compression alone was less effective, presumably reflecting the large capacity of the abdomen relative to the legs.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA Crew and Cargo Launch Vehicle Development Approach Builds on Lessons from Past and Present Missions

The United States (US) Vision for Space Exploration, announced in January 2004, outlines the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) strategic goals and objectives, including retiring the Space Shuttle and replacing it with new space transportation systems for missions to the Moon, Mars, and beyond. The Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) that the new human-rated Crew Launch Vehicle (CLV) lofts into space early next decade will initially ferry astronauts to the International Space Station (ISS) Toward the end of the next decade, a heavy-lift Cargo Launch Vehicle (CaLV) will deliver the Earth Departure Stage (EDS) carrying the Lunar Surface Access Module (LSAM) to low-Earth orbit (LEO), where it will rendezvous with the CEV launched on the CLV and return astronauts to the Moon for the first time in over 30 years. This paper outlines how NASA is building these new space transportation systems on a foundation of legacy technical and management knowledge, using extensive experience gained from past and ongoing launch vehicle programs to maximize its design and development approach, with the objective of reducing total life cycle costs through operational efficiencies such as hardware commonality. For example, the CLV in-line configuration is composed of a 5-segment Reusable Solid Rocket Booster (RSRB), which is an upgrade of the current Space Shuttle 4- segment RSRB, and a new upper stage powered by the liquid oxygen/liquid hydrogen (LOX/LH2) J-2X engine, which is an evolution of the J-2 engine that powered the Apollo Program s Saturn V second and third stages in the 1960s and 1970s. The CaLV configuration consists of a propulsion system composed of two 5-segment RSRBs and a 33- foot core stage that will provide the LOX/LED needed for five commercially available RS-68 main engines. The J-2X also will power the EDS. The Exploration Launch Projects, managed by the Exploration Launch Office located at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center, is leading the design, development, testing, and operations planning for these new space transportation systems. Utilizing a foundation of heritage hardware and management lessons learned mitigates both technical and programmatic risk. Project engineers and managers work closely with the Space Shuttle Program to transition hardware, infrastructure, and workforce assets to the new launch systems, leveraging a wealth of knowledge from Shuffle operations. In addition, NASA and its industry partners have tapped into valuable Apollo databases and are applying corporate wisdom conveyed firsthand by Apollo-era veterans of America s original Moon missions. Learning from its successes and failures, NASA employs rigorous systems engineering and systems management processes and principles in a disciplined, integrated fashion to further improve the probability of mission success.

Dumbacher, Daniel L.↗

NASA Exploration Launch Projects Overview: The Crew Launch Vehicle and the Cargo Launch Vehicle Systems

The U.S. Vision for Space Exploration (January 2004) serves as the foundation for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) strategic goals and objectives. As the NASA Administrator outlined during his confirmation hearing in April 2005, these include: 1) Flying the Space Shuttle as safely as possible until its retirement, not later than 2010. 2) Bringing a new Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) into service as soon as possible after Shuttle retirement. 3) Developing a balanced overall program of science, exploration, and aeronautics at NASA, consistent with the redirection of the human space flight program to focus on exploration. 4) Completing the International Space Station (ISS) in a manner consistent with international partner commitments and the needs of human exploration. 5) Encouraging the pursuit of appropriate partnerships with the emerging commercial space sector. 6) Establishing a lunar return program having the maximum possible utility for later missions to Mars and other destinations. In spring 2005, the Agency commissioned a team of aerospace subject matter experts to perform the Exploration Systems Architecture Study (ESAS). The ESAS team performed in-depth evaluations of a number of space transportation architectures and provided recommendations based on their findings? The ESAS analysis focused on a human-rated Crew Launch Vehicle (CLV) for astronaut transport and a heavy lift Cargo Launch Vehicle (CaLV) to carry equipment, materials, and supplies for lunar missions and, later, the first human journeys to Mars. After several months of intense study utilizing safety and reliability, technical performance, budget, and schedule figures of merit in relation to design reference missions, the ESAS design options were unveiled in summer 2005. As part of NASA's systems engineering approach, these point of departure architectures have been refined through trade studies during the ongoing design phase leading to the development phase that begins in 2008. Comprehensive reviews of engineering data and business assessments by both internal and independent reviewers serve as decision gates to ensure that systems can fully meet customer and stakeholder requirements. This paper provides the current CLV and CaLV configuration designs and gives examples of the progress being made during the first year of this significant effort. Safe, reliable, cost-effective space transportation systems are a foundational piece of America s future in space and the next step in realizing the plan for revitalizing lunar capabilities on the passageway to the human exploration of Mars. While building on legacy knowledge and heritage hardware for risk reduction, NASA will apply lessons learned from developing these new launch vehicles to the growth path for future missions. The elements for mission success and continued U.S. leadership in space have been assembled over the past year. As NASA designs and develops these two new systems over the next dozen years, visible progress, such as that reported in this paper, may sustain the national will to stay the course across political administrations and weather the inevitable trials that will be experienced during this challenging endeavor.

Snoddy, Jimmy R.↗

RS-25 for the NASA Cargo Launch Vehicle: The Evolution of SSME for Space Exploration

A key element of the National Vision for Space Exploration is the development of a heavy-lift Cargo Launch Vehicle (CaLV). Missions to the Moon, Mars, and beyond are only possible with the logistical capacity of putting large payloads in low-earth orbit. However, beyond simple logistics, there exists the need for this capability to be as cost effective as possible to ensure mission sustainability. An element of the CaLV project is, therefore, the development of the RS-25, which represents the evolution of the proven Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) into a high-performance, cost-effective expendable rocket engine. The development of the RS-25 will be built upon the foundation of over one million seconds of accumulated hot-fire time on the SSME. Yet in order to transform the reusable SSME into the more cost-effective, expendable RS-25 changes will have to be made. Thus the project will inevitably strive to maintain a balance between demonstrated heritage products and processes and the utilization of newer technology developments. Towards that end, the Core Stage Engine Office has been established at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center to initiate the design and development of the RS-25 engine. This paper is being written very early in the formulation phase of the RS-25 project. Therefore the focus of this paper will be to present the scope, challenges, and opportunities for the RS-25 project. Early schedules and development decisions and plans will be explained. For not only must the RS-25 project achieve cost effectiveness through the development of new, evolved components such as a channel-wall nozzle, a new HIP-bonded main combustion chamber, and several others, it must simultaneously develop the means whereby this engine can be manufactured on a scale never envisioned for the SSME. Thus, while the overall project will span the next eight to ten years, there is little doubt that even this schedule is aggressive with a great deal of work to accomplish.

Kynard, Michael H.↗

Structural Analysis of Lightning Protection System for New Launch Vehicle

This project includes the design and specification of a lightning protection system for Launch Complex 39 B (LC39B) at Kennedy Space Center, FL in support of the Constellation Program. The purpose of the lightning protection system is to protect the Crew Launch Vehicle (CLV) or Cargo Launch Vehicle (CaLV) and associated launch equipment from direct lightning strikes during launch processing and other activities prior to flight. The design includes a three-tower, overhead catenary wire system to protect the vehicle and equipment on LC39B as described in the study that preceded this design effort: KSC-DX-8234 "Study: Construct Lightning Protection System LC3 9B". The study was a collaborative effort between Reynolds, Smith, and Hills (RS&H) and ASRC Aerospace (ASRC), where ASRC was responsible for the theoretical design and risk analysis of the lightning protection system and RS&H was responsible for the development of the civil and structural components; the mechanical systems; the electrical and grounding systems; and the siting of the lightning protection system. The study determined that a triangular network of overhead catenary cables and down conductors supported by three triangular free-standing towers approximately 594 ft tall (each equipped with a man lift, ladder, electrical systems, and communications systems) would provide a level of lightning protection for the Constellation Program CLV and CaLV on Launch Pad 39B that exceeds the design requirements.

Cope, Anne↗

The Annual Glaciohydrology Cycle in the Ablation Zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet: Part 2. Observed and Modeled Ice Flow

Ice velocities observed in 2005/06 at three GPS stations along the Sermeq Avannarleq flowline, West Greenland, are used to characterize an observed annual velocity cycle. We attempt to reproduce this annual ice velocity cycle using a 1-D ice-flow model with longitudinal stresses coupled to a 1-D hydrology model that governs an empirical basal sliding rule. Seasonal basal sliding velocity is parameterized as a perturbation of prescribed winter sliding velocity that is proportional to the rate of change of glacier water storage. The coupled model reproduces the broad features of the annual basal sliding cycle observed along this flowline, namely a summer speed-up event followed by a fall slowdown event. We also evaluate the hypothesis that the observed annual velocity cycle is due to the annual calving cycle at the terminus. We demonstrate that the ice acceleration due to a catastrophic calving event takes an order of magnitude longer to reach CU/ETH ('Swiss') Camp (46km upstream of the terminus) than is observed. The seasonal acceleration observed at Swiss Camp is therefore unlikely to be the result of velocity perturbations propagated upstream via longitudinal coupling. Instead we interpret this velocity cycle to reflect the local history of glacier water balance.

ice flow↗

Rapidly Connecting You to the World: Improving NASA’s Worldview to Enhance Discovery and Access to Near Real-Time Imagery

The world around us is constantly in motion. Storms swirl, fires rage, volcanoes erupt and icebergs calve. NASA’s fleet of Earth Observing System (EOS) satellites are there to capture this. Within hours of satellite overpass, NASA’s Worldview (https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov) delivers this global, near-real time imagery through an interactive web map application. Provided through NASA’s Land Atmosphere Near real-time Capability for EOS (LANCE) (https://earthdata.nasa.gov/lance) via NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS) (https://earthdata.nasa.gov/gibs), the near real-time satellite imagery provides a launching point to discover where the latest wildfires, severe storms, volcanic eruptions, and calving ice shelves are happening. This poster will explore the newest near real-time satellite imagery and soon-to-be available imagery in Worldview, including imagery from geostationary satellites - GOES-East/West and Himawari-8. The poster will cover recent and future improvements to Worldview aimed to enhance the discovery and interaction with near real-time imagery and show how it is used by people from researchers, to meteorologists to the science-minded public around the world.

Wong, Min Minnie↗

Simulating ice-shelf extent using damage mechanics

Abstract Inaccurate representations of iceberg calving from ice shelves are a large source of uncertainty in mass-loss projections from the Antarctic ice sheet. Here, we address this limitation by implementing and testing a continuum damage-mechanics model in a continental scale ice-sheet model. The damage-mechanics formulation, based on a linear stability analysis and subsequent long-wavelength approximation of crevasses that evolve in a viscous medium, links damage evolution to climate forcing and the large-scale stresses within an ice shelf. We incorporate this model into the BISICLES ice-sheet model and test it by applying it to idealized (1) ice tongues, for which we present analytical solutions and (2) buttressed ice-shelf geometries. Our simulations show that the model reproduces the large disparity in lengths of ice shelves with geometries and melt rates broadly similar to those of four Antarctic ice shelves: Erebus Glacier Tongue (length ~ 13 km), the unembayed portion of Drygalski Ice Tongue (~ 65 km), the Amery Ice Shelf (~ 350 km) and the Ross Ice Shelf (~ 500 km). These results demonstrate that our simple continuum model holds promise for constraining realistic ice-shelf extents in large-scale ice-sheet models in a computationally tractable manner.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Beyond the Stokes approximation: shallow visco-elastic ice-sheet models

Abstract The hypothesis that ice-sheet evolution is only controlled by the long-term non-Newtonian viscous behavior of ice has been challenged by observations indicating that effects like brittle failure, stick-slip sliding, tides and wave action may affect ice-sheet evolution on sub-daily timescales. Over these timescales, the quasi-static-creep approximation is no longer appropriate and elastic effects become important. Simulating elastic effects in ice-sheet models over relevant timescales, however, remains challenging. Here, we show that by including a visco-elastic rheology and reintroducing the oft neglected acceleration term back into the ice-sheet stress balance, we can create a visco-elastic system where the velocity is locally determined and information propagates at the elastic wave speed. Crucially, the elastic wave speed can be treated like an adjustable parameter and set to any value to reproduce a range of phenomena, provided the wave speed is large compared to the viscous velocity. We illustrate the system using three examples. The first two examples demonstrate that the system converges to the steady-state viscous and elastic limits. The third example examines ice-shelf rifting and iceberg calving. This final example hints at the utility of the visco-elastic formulation in treating both long-term evolution and short-term environmental effects.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Process involved in the propagation of rifts across the Ronne Ice Shelf, near the region of Hemmen Ice Rise

We use radar interferometric images collected by ERS-1 and Radarsat-1 to observe the rupture tip of rifts along Hemmen Ice Rise on the Ronne Ice Shelf, Antarctica. Interferograms generated in 1992 and 1997 allow us to observe the deformation of ice accumulated over respectively 9 and24 days. The results are an important step towards developing a better model of ice-shelf calving mechanism.

Hemmen Ice Rise Ronne Ice Shelf Antarctica calving↗

Combined Static and Dynamic Computed Tomography Angiography of Peripheral Artery Occlusive Disease: Comparison with Magnetic Resonance Angiography

PurposeTo compare in patients with known peripheral artery occlusive disease (PAOD), image quality of a combined CTA to a combined MRA protocol, including both static and dynamic acquisitions.Materials and MethodsTwenty-two patients with PAOD were examined with a combined CTA and MRA protocol consisting of static acquisitions (s-CTA, s-MRA) of the entire runoff and dynamic acquisitions (d-CTA, d-MRA) of the calves. Two radiologists compared image quality of the s-MRA versus s-CTA as well as d-MRA versus d-CTA. Image quality was assessed on a segmental basis using a 4-point Likert scale.ResultsFor s-CTA, 76% of segments were rated as excellent or good. For s-MRA, 50% of segments were rated as excellent or good (p < 0.0001). For d-CTA, median image quality score for all segments was rated as excellent for both readers. For d-MRA, median image quality for the different segments ranged from moderate to good. For both d-CTA and d-MRA, the median image quality scores were significantly higher for all segments of the lower limb compared with the static examinations of the lower limb segments (all p values < 0.0001). In patients with PAOD category 4–6, 80% of segments were rated as excellent or good for d-CTA, while 45% of segments were rated as poor or non-diagnostic for d-MRA.ConclusionIn patients with known PAOD, a combined static and dynamic CTA examination improves image quality relative to static and dynamic MRA and should be considered as an alternative to MRA, particularly in patients with advanced stage PAOD.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗