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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2026

Impacts of Solar Land Availability on the Evolution of the U.S. Power System

Long-term planning scenarios of the United States electricity system have not identified solar resource availability to be a limiting factor in how much solar capacity might be deployed. However, there are some smaller regions where siting challenges indicate solar deployment could be limited by solar resource availability. In this work, we use geospatial modeling tools to develop a restrictive siting scenario that significantly reduces the amount and location of utility-scale solar resources. We use that restrictive siting regime, along with other previously defined siting scenarios, to examine how solar resource availability impacts the buildout of the electricity system using business-as-usual and decarbonization futures in a national-scale capacity expansion model. The restrictive siting scenario uses observed siting pressures to exclude many types of land on which development is allowed today and results in a greater than 90% reduction in solar resource potential-to approximately 3000 GW. Even with this drastic reduction, utility-scale solar capacity grows by more than 3 times through 2050 in the business-as-usual scenarios and by more than 6 times in the decarbonization scenarios, though less solar is deployed in scenarios with lower available solar resource. We quantify how system costs and generation mixes change as solar resource availability changes.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Capacity Expansion Regional Feasibility (CERF) Model: High-Resolution Power Plant Siting

Abstract This presentation gives an overview of the geospatial power plant siting model CERF. CERF (Capacity Expansion Regional Feasibility) is an open source Python package developed under the Integrated Multisector Multiscale Modeling (IM3) Project at PNNL. This presentation covers an overview of how the CERF model works, walks through various power plant siting analyses, and discusses future research opportunities for the model. The CERF model can be accessed at https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/cerf. PNNL Information Release Number: PNNL-SA-207336 Acknowledgment IM3 is a multi-institutional effort led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science as part of research in MultiSector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling Program.

Mongird, Kendall [Pacific Northwest National Labor↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Framework for Assessing Economic and Environmental Trade-offs of Internalized Emission Costs in ERCOT Grid Planning

The power grid is on the cusp of a massive transition driven by three major areas: 1) the growth in demand for electricity, 2) efforts to decarbonize the United States economy, and 3) a desire to mitigate social disparities from the impact of electricity generation on local populations. However, most studies of the electricity sector do not include equity impacts in their models. This study seeks to do so by developing a comprehensive and generalizable model tailored to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) grid, designed to incorporate the equity impacts of electricity generation in a decarbonized and resilient framework. To integrate equity into our research, we incorporate environmental externalities into our capacity expansion model of ERCOT. Specifically, we factor in intermediate-level local marginal damages of precursor pollutants (NH3, NOx, primary PM2.5, SO2, and VOC) and global pollutant CO2 into the cost of generating electricity. We do this by taking into account county population, county ambient pollution concentration, and generator emission rates. Leveraging open-source modeling tools, such as PowerGenome, pyGRETA, and GenX we construct a county-level model to account for these costs. We integrate these marginal damages into the variable operations and maintenance costs of generators, for both existing and potential future builds. This study’s findings suggest that the value of a dynamic social cost of carbon (SSC) will cover criteria pollutant marginal damages within the ERCOT grid and solar and wind is expected to increase out to 2035. Key metrics evaluated within this research include fuel mix distribution across technologies, transmission and grid infrastructure costs, CO2 emissions, local pollutants marginal damages, and the variation in generation capacity built by the model. These results and framework can be used to support grid decisions that explicitly include distributional and procedural equity within a decarbonized and sustainable grid framework.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Informing Transmission Supply Chain Needs from National Transmission Studies

Recent national studies indicate significant transmission expansion can provide the lowest-cost option to maintain grid reliability while meeting growing demand. However, constraints in domestic supply chains may limit grid expansion across the U.S., with higher costs and longer delays for required transmission equipment. Despite growing evidence of supply chain constraints for transmission components, transmission planning studies often assume transmission equipment is readily available for deployment or analyze future demand using historical trade and manufacturing data that may not capture evolving grid needs. This report aims to address this gap by demonstrating methods to quantify future demand for critical transmission components and input materials from national-scale planning models. These components include power transformers, generator step-up transformers, converter transformers, conductors, circuit breakers, and transmission towers and the materials include aluminum, steel, grain-oriented electrical steel (GOES), and copper. The analytical approach is applied to two nodal transmission expansion scenarios from the National Transmission Planning Study (NTP) to illustrate the methods. These scenarios represent different transmission expansion strategies for the contiguous U.S. to the year 2035: the Alternating Current (AC) scenario includes AC transmission expansion within each interconnection and the Multiterminal (MT) scenario includes interregional transmission expansion across the country using both AC and multiterminal HVDC options between neighboring zones. We also explore potential heuristics to derive transmission component demand from zonal capacity expansion models (CEMs) with coarse representation of the transmission grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Informing Transmission Supply Chain Needs from National Transmission Studies

Recent national studies indicate significant transmission expansion can provide the lowest-cost option to maintain grid reliability while meeting growing demand. However, constraints in domestic supply chains may limit grid expansion across the U.S., with higher costs and longer delays for required transmission equipment. Despite growing evidence of supply chain constraints for transmission components, transmission planning studies often assume transmission equipment is readily available for deployment or analyze future demand using historical trade and manufacturing data that may not capture evolving grid needs. This report aims to address this gap by demonstrating methods to quantify future demand for critical transmission components and input materials from national-scale planning models. These components include power transformers, generator step-up transformers, converter transformers, conductors, circuit breakers, and transmission towers and the materials include aluminum, steel, grain-oriented electrical steel (GOES), and copper. The analytical approach is applied to two nodal transmission expansion scenarios from the National Transmission Planning Study (NTP) to illustrate the methods. These scenarios represent different transmission expansion strategies for the contiguous U.S. to the year 2035: the Alternating Current (AC) scenario includes AC transmission expansion within each interconnection and the Multiterminal (MT) scenario includes interregional transmission expansion across the country using both AC and multiterminal HVDC options between neighboring zones. We also explore potential heuristics to derive transmission component demand from zonal capacity expansion models (CEMs) with coarse representation of the transmission grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deployment Potential of Concentrating Solar Power Technologies in California

As states within the United States respond to future grid development goals, there is a growing demand for reliable and resilient nighttime generation that can be addressed by low-cost, long-duration energy storage solutions. This report studies the potential of including concentrating solar power (CSP) in the technology mix to support California’s goals as defined in Senate Bill 100. A joint agency report study that determined potential pathways to achieve the renewable portfolio standard set by the bill did not include CSP, and our work provides information that could be used as a follow-up. This study uses a capacity expansion model configured to have nodal spatial fidelity in California and balancing-area fidelity in the Western Interconnection outside of California. The authors discovered that by applying current technology cost projections CSP fulfills nearly 15% of the annual load while representing just 6% of total installed capacity in 2045, replacing approximately 30 GWe of wind, solar PV, and standalone batteries compared to a scenario without CSP included. The deployment of CSP in the results is sensitive to the technology’s cost, which highlights the importance of meeting cost targets in 2030 and beyond to enable the technology’s potential contribution to California’s carbon reduction goals.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Challenges and Opportunities for Electric Utility Modeling and Asset Valuation Frameworks: Case Study on Valuing New Pumped Storage Hydropower

Asset valuation by electric utilities is becoming increasingly difficult in the rapidly changing electric sector. Rapid deployment of variable generation and inverter-based storage systems along with uncertain demand growth, climate, policies, and other factors create a challenging environment for understanding the value proposition of a new potential asset. This report describes an effort between the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) and three U.S. Department of Energy laboratories to perform a detailed review of utility modeling and analysis practices for asset valuation and identify challenges and opportunities for advancing its methods into the future. It focuses on a case study of new potential pumped storage hydropower (PSH) because of growing interest in new PSH capacity to provide energy balancing, firm capacity, and a range of ancillary services. Staff from the DOE labs conducted systematic interviews about current practices in capacity expansion modeling, production-cost modeling, hydrological modeling, and transmission stability modeling while also discussing how scenario analysis is conducted and how models and data are integrated. The effort resulted in a set of model, integration, and scenario recommendations that could be valuable to TVA, other utilities, system operators, and other stakeholders conducting integrated grid analysis. Individual model recommendations suggest exploring computational tradeoffs with detail and resolution across spatiotemporal structure, supply- and demand-side details, transmission overlays, market interactions, and ancillary services. Automated processes to pass data between models and conduct larger scenario suites could also enhance valuation practices by enabling a more consistent study of asset value across a broader range of uncertain future grid conditions where PSH could be particularly valuable. TVA and other industry stakeholders can learn from and adapt applied research-grade methods developed by DOE laboratories and other research institutions to improve decision making and accelerate progress towards a reliable, economic, sustainable energy system.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Grid Value Analysis of Geothermal Systems for End-Use Applications

Fuel based end-uses for residential, commercial, and industrial consumers require a technology change to achieve economy-wide decarbonization. Space heating accounts for 42% of residential and 32% of commercial energy demand, much of which is currently met through carbon emitting fuels. Industrial energy use is heavily fuel based with electricity currently representing 13% of energy demand. Geothermal heat pumps (GHPs) and geothermal direct use can eliminate the need for CO2 emitting and simultaneously allow for more efficient electrification of end uses. Past work has assessed the impact on total energy costs and generation investments but did not identify specific grid services benefited. Energy usage in residential and commercial structures was assessed by leveraging data from ComStock and ResStock models. These models utilize housing attributes, occupancy patterns, weather data, and sophisticated energy simulations to generate hourly load profiles for individual buildings identified by unique IDs associated with their locations. Industrial sector energy use was evaluated using information from the Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey (MECS) as well as plant utilization data from the US Census to estimate hourly plant operations. The change in end-use demand for electricity, natural gas, and other fuels was calculated for different technologies that could meet this need. Using the ReEDS capacity expansion model, we produce regional price profiles that capture the grid benefit associated with the amount and timing of energy shifts in the power system from the adoption of geothermal systems relative to other technologies that could meet space heating, space cooling, and process heat requirements. We find that geothermal systems for meeting end-use demand add value to the energy system. In buildings where geothermal systems increase grid costs, these values are offset by reduced fuel costs and benefits to externalities, including emissions and health impacts.

decarbonization↗
DOE OSTI2024

The value of long-duration energy storage under various grid conditions in a zero-emissions future

Long-duration energy storage (LDES) is a key resource in enabling zero-emissions electricity grids but its role within different types of grids is not well understood. Using the Switch capacity expansion model, we model a zero-emissions Western Interconnect with high geographical resolution to understand the value of LDES under 39 scenarios with different generation mixes, transmission expansion, storage costs, and storage mandates. We find that a) LDES is particularly valuable in majority wind-powered regions and regions with diminishing hydropower generation, b) seasonal operation of storage becomes cost-effective if storage capital costs fall below US$\$$5 kWh −1 , and c) mandating the installation of enough LDES to enable year-long storage cycles would reduce electricity prices during times of high demand by over 70%. Given the asset and resource diversity of the Western Interconnect, our results can provide grid planners in many regions with guidance on how LDES impacts and is impacted by energy storage mandates, investments in LDES research and development, and generation mix and transmission expansion decisions.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessment of Regional Interconnections to Meet Southeast Asia's Renewable Energy Targets: Phase I of the Singapore – U.S. Collaboration

This report summarizes the results of a study of long-distance subsea electrical interconnections in Southeast Asia, conducted under the first phase of the Singapore-U.S. collaboration under the Net Zero World Initiative. In Phase 1, the Net Zero World team evaluated the current state of the renewable energy landscape in Southeast Asia; developed an open-source capacity expansion model using GridPath and evaluated several future scenarios including changes in interregional transmission; explored the technical feasibility of regional subsea interconnectors; and estimated socio-economic benefits of expanded regional transmission.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Forward-Looking Dataset of EV Managed Charging Resource and Costs

This presentation summarizes a high-resolution, forward-looking dataset of EV adoption, EV charging, and managed charging resource. Vehicle-level data are grounded in current adoption and charging patterns, and ~200,000 real-world vehicle-weeks of travel data covering all on-road segments (i.e., light-duty, transit and school buses, local, regional and long-haul medium- and heavy-duty). The data, which include multiple charging profiles per vehicle to bound flexibility, are then processed and aggregated to describe baseline charging and charge management resource by county, hour, year, scenario, and vehicle type. Coupled with one of four scenarios of how EV managed charging costs might evolve over time, the dataset enables a power sector capacity expansion model to select cost-optimal quantities of EV managed charging and supply-side resources to reliably satisfy demand. Five integration strategies: Baseline, Daytime and Flat (passive), Flex (active), and Stress (anti-strategy), illustrate how baseline charging and flexibility potential changes with EVSE build-out and charging preferences.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data for "Implications of Zoning Ordinances for Rural Utility-Scale Solar Deployment and Power System Decarbonization in the Great Lakes Region".

This dataset includes the Energy Zoning Database and geographic shapefiles used to identify suitable rural areas for utility-scale solar development. Additionally, it contains the input data required for the capacity expansion model, including information on existing electric generators and their associated costs, solar resource potential, and transmission infrastructure data. These datasets collectively support the analysis presented in the paper, ensuring a comprehensive assessment of zoning regulations, land suitability, and the economic and technical feasibility of solar deployment in rural areas.

Owusu-Obeng, Papa Yaw (ORCID:0000000334385183)↗
DOE OSTI2024

ReEDS Performance Improvement

The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) is an open-source, spatially explicit, long-term capacity expansion model for the bulk electric power system of the contiguous United States, encompassing multiple scenarios with technological and political assumptions (see https://github.com/NREL/ReEDS-2.0). With the increased needs for capabilities, higher temporal and spatial resolutions to model the evolution of the power system with modern technologies and low-carbon pathways, ReEDS' model solution times have increased significantly from 4-6 hours in 2018 to 18-48+ hours in 2023 . Also, the model size for commonly-run ReEDS scenarios reached 22 and 28 million equations and variables, respectively. These runtimes can be especially challenging under certain scenario settings (e.g., very high temporal or spatial resolution) or with limited computational power. In this presentation, we will discuss several methods we used to improve model runtime, including data preparation, model modification, and solver tuning. The implementation of these methods shrank the model size to 7.2 and 7.3 million equations and variables, respectively. Furthermore, this led to a 77% reduction in the model's run time for commonly-run ReEDS scenarios. We will discuss the process of identifying areas for solve time improvements and how the specific enhancements for the ReEDS model might be applied to other similar large-scale models.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,MATHEMATICS A↗
DOE OSTI2024

Average and Marginal Capacity Credit Values of Renewable Energy and Battery Storage in the United States Power System

As deployment of renewable resources and storage continue to significantly grow in the coming decades, these technologies will play increasingly important roles in maintaining power systems' resource adequacy. Few analyses so far offer comprehensive comparisons of forward-looking average and marginal capacity credits of variable renewable energy and storage in the U.S. interconnections across a wide range of possible futures. To fill this research gap, we quantify the average and marginal capacity credits of solar PV, onshore and offshore wind, and batteries between 2026 and 2050 across the U.S power systems to examine the temporal trends, spatial patterns, and trade-offs between these two capacity accreditation approaches. Across technologies, capacity credits of solar PV most clearly follow downward trends over time, reflecting the significant rise in solar PV generation share as the grid decarbonizes. While battery storages' generation shares also rise significantly over time, their capacity credits always remain stably high due to their capabilities to be dispatched strategically during critical periods to maintain reliability. On the other hand, capacity credits of wind technologies in general follow slight upward trends as their generation shares level off. There are strong spatial variabilities of both average and marginal capacity credits across technologies, but capacity credits of solar PV displaying the most obvious spatial patterns with high capacity credits concentrating in wind-rich, solar-poor regions in SPP, PJM, and MISO, suggesting potential reliability benefits of interconnection-wide planning for renewable energy deployments. Additionally, except for offshore wind, average capacity credits of all other renewable technologies tend to be higher than their marginal capacity credits, indicating that existing renewable resources tend to be accredited higher than new resources at almost any time.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) Model Documentation: 2025

The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model is a capacity expansion and dispatch model that is primarily used for the contiguous U.S. electric power sector. The model relies on system-wide least cost optimization to estimate the type and location of future generation and transmission capacity. This document describes details of how the model is formulated, how it functions, and many of the key inputs.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bias Correcting NOAA's High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Wind Resource Data for Grid Integration Applications [Slides]

Many weather years of high-quality wind data are widely accepted in the grid integration community to be important for studying wind energy technical potential, energy system operations, and grid resilience. NREL makes high-quality wind and solar resource data available. NREL's Grid-Atmosphere workshop (March 2024) identified NREL National Solar Radiation Database as widely used in grid integration modeling, but there is less agreement on commonly used wind datasets. One important factor identified by ESIG's 2023 report 'Weather Dataset Needs for Planning and Analyzing Modern Power Systems' for gold standard wind data is regular updates. To address the need for regular updates, NREL's team can now process all currently available and regularly updated High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) outputs. HRRR is an hourly-updated operational forecast product produced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (Dowell et al., 2022). One barrier to NREL using HRRR is systematic bias and consistency with NREL's existing wind datasets (e.g. WIND Toolkit, 'WTK') across weather years. To address this barrier, we show that the HRRR can be interpolated and bias-corrected to be consistent with NRE's existing datasets. We call the new dataset BC-HRRR (bias-corrected HRRR). As with historical datasets like the WTK, BC-HRRR is intended for use in grid integration modeling (e.g., capacity expansion, production cost, and resource adequacy modeling). BC-HRRR's (2015-present) consistency with WTK (2007-2013) allows NREL to extend internal grid integration tooling with 15+ weather years of wind data with low-overhead extensibility to future years as they are made available by NOAA. The rest of this slide deck documents the BC-HRRR processing methods, validation, and its implications for intended use.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

A method for assessing economic, environmental, and reliability tradeoffs of interregional transmission connecting ERCOT (the Texas grid) to the eastern and western grids

Reliable development of the power grid is an evolving concern for humanity due to extreme weather that frequently threatens power sector infrastructure. The state of Texas is a uniquely structured testbed for grid planners to study when looking for solutions to development, innovation, and overcoming such challenges. Because of its size and islanded structure, Texas is small enough to model, but big enough to matter. Texas is a global leader in energy production, energy consumption, and maintains an unusually diverse fuel mix. In addition, the state has experienced winter freezes, heat waves, wind storms, droughts and floods that have threatened power sector infrastructure or caused recent blackouts and calls for demand side conservation. One of the most devastating of these events was the North American winter storm, dubbed “Winter Storm Uri” by the Weather Channel, that froze the region in February 2021 and led to an extended power outage event that put the majority of Texan residents in darkness for days. While preparing to avoid such outage events in the future, various tools have been proposed to improve grid reliability, including energy efficiency, demand response, and distributed energy resources. An additional option would be to develop interregional transmission that connects the Texas grid to other national grids. To assess the merits of this idea, we developed a novel, universally-applicable and internationally-relevant framework to study how the Texas grid would evolve alongside access to various interregional ties. This method allows us to stress the synthetic grid structure and analyze how it would respond to the shock of a simulated winter storm event. Our method leverages open-source modeling tools, such as PowerGenome, pyGRETA, and GenX to synthesize unique zonal grid data, construct a consolidated network of model regions, and simulate different developmental pathways of capacity expansion and operational dispatch. We demonstrate our method with an analysis connecting the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the grid that serves most of Texas, the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC), the grid that serves the western half of the contiguous U.S., and the Eastern Interconnect, the grid that serves the eastern half of the contiguous U.S. Our results indicate that the cost-optimal capacity of interregional transmission connecting the ERCOT grid to other grids lies between 9–13 GW assuming baseline conditions. Building this amount of connecting capacity in one or multiple directions lowers the costs and emissions of development and operation by up to $16 billion and 257 million metric tonnes (MMT) respectively. Additionally, our results show that the interregional connections between ERCOT and other national grids reduce the amount of total load shed required through mild winter storm events. However, our results also show that there is a threshold of very extreme winter storm conditions, spanning multiple service areas, above which the connections exacerbate resource adequacy problems. Therefore, the results indicate that the connections need to be carefully planned alongside the rest of the grid infrastructure to avoid over-reliance on specific resources or technology options.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗