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Space Program Advocacy Can Distort Project Management and Damage Systems Engineering

Over-optimistic project advocacy often causes exaggerated performance claims and underestimated costs and schedules. This can distort project management and damage systems engineering. NASA projects such as the space shuttle and Hubble are extreme examples. NASA's spectacular success in the Apollo moon landings seems to have produced overconfidence and carelessness, but also to have gained tolerance for unrealistic claims and forgiveness when they were proven wrong. Apollo risk analysis predicted many astronaut fatalities. This was believed but was potentially damaging to the Apollo program, so risk analysis was discontinued. The moon landings beat bad odds because Apollo obsessively reduced risk. Its success seemed to confirm that risk analysis was unreasonably pessimistic and that risk could be overcome by good engineering. This understanding caused risk to be increased during space shuttle engineering and led to an unnecessarily dangerous approach. The shuttle design placed a fragile spacecraft next to the fuel tanks and failed to provide crew escape or launch abort. These design decisions directly caused the Challenger and Columbia tragedies. After Challenger, risk analysis was re-established. The current rocket and capsule design does consider risk and the result strongly resembles Apollo. Apollo advocacy led NASA to abandon risk analysis and this was ultimate cause of the Shuttle tragedies. Excessive advocacy that distorts risk, cost, and schedule could be prevented in an ideal organization that used systems engineering to make rational and fair decisions. However, most real organizations accommodate human and group needs using informal methods often described as "the system." Humans have biases, use innate decision making heuristics, instinctively rely on "gut feel," and establish deviant groups through groupthink. Expecting organizations to become totally rational is impractical, but specific problems such as neglecting risk and underestimating cost and schedule can be directly challenged with some hope of success.

Jones, Harry W.

Protection Against Radiation Hazards in Space, Book I Proceedings of the Symposium at Gatlinburg, Tenn., Nov. 5-7, 1962

BOOK 1: Radiation Environment in Space Effects of Space Radiation on Radiosensitive Objects Biological Effects of Space Radiation BOOK 2 : Shielding Against Space Radiations The realization in recent years that outer space is traversed by high-energy radiations has caused man to reevaluate the feasibility of manned or even instrumented exploration outside our atmosphere. Fortunately, it is possible to determine the nature and intensities of these radiations and to produce similar radiations on earth by means of accelerators. Thus we can learn how to attenuate them and to design capsules which afford protection against them. Of course this protection carries a weight penalty so that there is a premium on optimizing the shield design. Many groups in the United States are engaged in research to this end, and it was the purpose of this symposium to bring these groups together so that they could exchange information. To make the meeting more comprehensive, sessions on the nature of the radiations and their effects on people and things were included. However, the major part of the meeting was devoted to discussions on shielding research, comprising theoretical calculations and experiments carried out mainly with high-energy accelerators. The symposium committee feels that the aims of the symposium were met and that progress in space research program was greatly accelerated thereby.

RADIATION SHIELDING

Proceedings of the Symposium on the Protection Against Radiation Hazards in Space

Shielding Against Space Radiations The realization in recent years that outer space is traversed by high-energy radiations has caused man to reevaluate the feasibility of manned or even instrumented exploration outside our atmosphere. Fortunately, it is possible to determine the nature and intensities of these radiations and to produce similar radiations on earth by means of accelerators. Thus we can learn how to attenuate them and to design capsules which afford protection against them. Of course this protection carries a weight penalty so that there is a premium on optimizing the shield design. Many groups in the United States are engaged in research to this end, and it was the purpose of this symposium to bring these groups together so that they could exchange information. To make the meeting more comprehensive, sessions on the nature of the radiations and their effects on people and things were included. However, the major part of the meeting was devoted to discussions on shielding research, comprising theoretical calculations and experiments carried out mainly with high-energy accelerators. The symposium committee feels that the aims of the symposium were met and that progress in space research program was greatly accelerated thereby.

SECONDARY EMISSION

Proceedings of the Symposium on the Protection Against Radiation Hazards in Space Book 1: Radiation Environment in Space. Effects of Space Radiation on Radio Sensitive Objects. Biological Effects of Space Radiation

The realization in recent years that outer space is traversed by high-energy radiations has caused man to reevaluate the feasibility of manned or even instrumented exploration outside our atmosphere. Fortunately, it is possible to determine the nature and intensities of these radiations and to produce similar radiations on earth by means of accelerators. Thus we can learn how to attenuate them and to design capsules which afford protection against them. Of course this protection carries a weight penalty so that there is a premium on optimizing the shield design. Many groups in the United states are engaged in research to this end,and it was the purpose of this symposium to bring these groups together so that they could exchange information. To make the meeting more comprehensive, sessions on the nature of the radiations and their effects on people and things were included. However, the major part of the meeting was devoted to discussions on shielding research, comprising theoretical calculations and experiments carried out mainly with high-energy accelerators. The symposium committee feels that the aims of the symposium were met and that progress in space research program was greatly accelerated thereby.

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Thermal Protection Systems Technology Transfer from Apollo and Space Shuttle to the Orion Program

This paper describes how the Orion program is utilizing the Thermal Protection System (TPS) experience from the Apollo and Space Shuttle programs to reduce program risk and improve affordability to meet NASA's future manned exploration missions. The Orion program successfully completed the Exploration Flight Test (EFT-1) mission in 2014 and is currently assembling, integrating, and testing the next spacecraft for the Exploration Mission (EM-1) to meet the flight test objectives of an unmanned orbital mission to the moon and return to earth in 2019. The Orion spacecraft production operations are located in the Neil Armstrong Operations and Checkout (O&C) facility at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) providing an affordable and seamless delivery approach of vehicles directly to the launch site eliminating spacecraft transportation and additional checkout testing. Innovative vehicle design, manufacturing and test operations approaches are maturing and evolving with each Orion vehicle build to support the challenging NASA exploration mission requirements beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) while reducing program cost and schedule impacts. An example of Orion's evolution is the incorporation of an improved heat shield design, assembly and testing approach to meet the higher re-entry velocities for a lunar return for the EM-1 mission. The EFT- 1 heat shield was based on the Apollo heat shield manufacturing processes and was assembled at a supplier location and then transported to KSC for final integration. The EM-1 heat shield is now manufactured, assembled, tested, and installed into the spacecraft at the O&C facility reducing program cost and production schedules. The transition of the Space Shuttle TPS capabilities has enabled Orion to provide a human rated capsule design using proven materials and processes established over years of orbiter re-entry missions. The Orion Crew Module (CM) TPS configuration is derived from the Apollo CM approach utilizing improved materials and processes developed from the Space Shuttle program. The Orion EFT-1 heat shield utilized the Avcoat ablative material from Apollo which was injected into a honeycomb substrate and has been updated for EM-1 incorporating a block configuration bonded to a composite shell structure. This approach utilizes the proven Avcoat material for the heat shield ablator and is utilizing derived bonding and inspection methods and techniques from the Space Shuttle tile experience. The Orion back shell TPS configuration is based on Space Shuttle tile designs using proven tile materials and coatings. The Orion forward bay cover utilizes the high temperature tiles similar to the back shell tiles and low temperature blankets derived from the Space Shuttle program reducing weight impacts. Space Shuttle Multi-Layer Insulation (MLI) is installed in the Orion capsule to control the interior temperature environment providing a light weight design. These TPS design approaches have performed successfully on the Orion first flight test on EFT-1 and are incorporated in the configuration for the next flight test for EM-1. Completion of these two flight tests will certify the TPS for the Orion program for human rated exploration missions and has reduced the development cost to the Orion program. In addition to transitioning the Space Shuttle TPS design configurations to Orion, the supporting manufacturing infrastructure, manufacturing processes, and inspection methods are also incorporated into the Orion assembly operations at KSC. This has avoided significant startup schedule and costs impacts of new capabilities and development of support operations necessary to fabricate, install, inspect, and validate the TPS installations for the Orion spacecraft. The Thermal Protection System Facility (TPSF) which supported the Space Shuttle program provides the heat shield Avcoat blocks and the back shell AETB-8 tiles for Orion program. Extending the existing Space Shuttle TPS operations at KSC provides onsite support to the Orion spacecraft assembly operations. A significant benefit to the Orion program is the transition of the Space Shuttle technician work force at KSC. This highly skilled workforce was able to transition to the Orion program and immediately support the TPS installation operations. They brought with them the human rated manufacturing and assembly operations culture that was critical to the Space Shuttle success avoiding the retraining cost and schedule impacts of a new workforce to Orion. The technician skills certification program from the Space Shuttle was found to be compatible with the Lockheed Martin technician certification programs enabling a seamless training process utilizing process similarity avoiding the cost of retraining the work force to Orion standards. The existing workforce is certificated for multiple processes enabling reassignment of technicians to other tasks in the Orion AI&P operations reducing the overall touch labor manpower requirements. Additional benefits of using the Space Shuttle workforce is the incorporation of the lessons learned from Space Shuttle processes to improve the Orion TPS processes. This has resulted in a continuous evolution of TPS processes to improve the producibility and reduce the program cost for the TPS for the Orion program. Transitioning the Apollo and Space Shuttle TPS designs, processes, and technician workforce has been instrumental in enabling Orion to successfully meet the program challenges for NASA's exploration missions of the future.

Stewart, Michael

Defect Characterization in a Thin Walled Composite RP-1 Tank: A Case Study

A full scale thin walled composite tank, designed and fabricated for the storage of pressurized RP- I rocket fuel, was fully inspected with digital infrared thermography (IR) during assembly and prior to proof testing. The tank featured a "pill capsule" design with the equatorial bondline being overwrapped on both the inner and outer surfaces. A composite skirt was bonded to the aft dome of the tank to serve as a structural support when the tank was stood on end in service. Numerous anomalies were detected and mapped prior to proof testing, some along bondlines and some scattered throughout the acreage. After the tank was intentionally burst, coupons were cut from the regions including thermographic anomalies. These coupons were again inspected thermographically to document the growth of any indications due to proof testing. Ultrasonic inspections (UT) were also performed on the coupons for comparison to thermography. Several coupons were dissected and micrographed. Relationships between IR and UT indications and the physical nature of the dissected material are presented.

Langsing, Matthew D.

Physics-based Entry, Descent and Landing Risk Model

A physics-based risk model was developed to assess the risk associated with thermal protection system failures during the entry, descent and landing phase of a manned spacecraft mission. In the model, entry trajectories were computed using a three-degree-of-freedom trajectory tool, the aerothermodynamic heating environment was computed using an engineering-level computational tool and the thermal response of the TPS material was modeled using a one-dimensional thermal response tool. The model was capable of modeling the effect of micrometeoroid and orbital debris impact damage on the TPS thermal response. A Monte Carlo analysis was used to determine the effects of uncertainties in the vehicle state at Entry Interface, aerothermodynamic heating and material properties on the performance of the TPS design. The failure criterion was set as a temperature limit at the bondline between the TPS and the underlying structure. Both direct computation and response surface approaches were used to compute the risk. The model was applied to a generic manned space capsule design. The effect of material property uncertainty and MMOD damage on risk of failure were analyzed. A comparison of the direct computation and response surface approach was undertaken.

descent and landing

Tools Lighten Designs, Maintain Structural Integrity

Collier Research Corporation of Hampton, Virginia, licensed software developed at Langley Research Center to reduce design weight through the use of composite materials. The first license of NASA-developed software, it has now been used in everything from designing next-generation cargo containers, to airframes, rocket engines, ship hulls, and train bodies. The company now has sales of the NASA-derived software topping $4 million a year and has recently received several Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) contracts to apply its software to nearly all aspects of the new Orion crew capsule design.

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