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At least 37 records · Page 2

Ocean Heat and Carbon Uptake in Transient Climate Change: Identifying Model Uncertainty

Global warming on decadal and centennial timescales is mediated and ameliorated by the oceansequestering heat and carbon into its interior. Transient climate change is a function of the efficiency by whichanthropogenic heat and carbon are transported away from the surface into the ocean interior (Hansen et al. 1985).Gregory and Mitchell (1997) and Raper et al. (2002) were the first to identify the importance of the ocean heat uptakeefficiency in transient climate change. Observational estimates (Schwartz 2012) and inferences from coupledatmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs; Gregory and Forster 2008; Marotzke et al. 2015), suggest thatocean heat uptake efficiency on decadal timescales lies in the range 0.5-1.5 W/sq m/K and is thus comparable to theclimate feedback parameter (Murphy et al. 2009). Moreover, the ocean not only plays a key role in setting the timing ofwarming but also its regional patterns (Marshall et al. 2014), which is crucial to our understanding of regional climate,carbon and heat uptake, and sea-level change. This short communication is based on a presentation given by A.Romanou at a recent workshop, Oceans Carbon and Heat Uptake: Uncertainties and Metrics, co-hosted by US CLIVARand OCB. As briefly reviewed below, we have incomplete but growing knowledge of how ocean models used in climatechange projections sequester heat and carbon into the interior. To understand and thence reduce errors and biases inthe ocean component of coupled models, as well as elucidate the key mechanisms at work, in the final section we outlinea proposed model intercomparison project named FAFMIP. In FAFMIP, coupled integrations would be carried out withprescribed overrides of wind stress and freshwater and heat fluxes acting at the sea surface.

periodic variations↗

Joint CO 2 Mole Fraction and Flux Analysis Confirms Missing Processes in CASA Terrestrial Carbon Uptake Over North America

Terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) play a key role in the detection and attribution of carbon cycle processes at local to global scales and in projections of the coupled carbon-climate system. TBM evaluation commonly involves direct comparison to eddy-covariance flux measurements. This study uses atmospheric CO 2 mole fraction ([CO 2 ]) measured in situ from aircraft and tower, in addition to flux-measurements from summer 2016 to evaluate the CASA TBM. WRF-Chem is used to simulate [CO 2 ] using biogenic CO 2 fluxes from a CASA parameter-based ensemble and CarbonTracker version 2017 (CT2017) in addition to transport and CO 2 boundary condition ensembles. The resulting “super ensemble” of modeled [CO 2 ] demonstrates that the biosphere introduces the majority of uncertainty to the simulations. Both aircraft and tower [CO 2 ] data show that the CASA ensemble net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO 2 is biased high (NEE too positive) and identify the maximum light use efficiency E max a key parameter that drives the spread of the CASA ensemble in summer 2016. These findings are verified with flux-measurements. The direct comparison of the CASA flux ensemble with flux-measurements confirms missing sink processes in CASA. Separating the daytime and nighttime flux, we discover that the underestimated net uptake results from missing sink processes that result in overestimation of respiration. NEE biases are smaller in the CT2017 posterior biogenic fluxes, which assimilates observed [CO 2 ]. Flux tower analyses, however, reveal an unrealistic overestimation of nighttime respiration in CT2017 due to the limitation of inversion strategy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Accelerating Net Terrestrial Carbon Uptake During the Warming Hiatus Due to Reduced Respiration

The recent warming hiatus presents an excellent opportunity to investigate climate sensitivity of carbon cycle processes. Here we combine satellite and atmospheric observations to show that the rate of net biome productivity (NBP) has significantly accelerated from - 0.007 +/- 0.065 PgC yr(exp -2) over the warming period (1982 to 1998) to 0.119 +/- 0.071 PgC yr(exp -2) over the warming hiatus (19982012). This acceleration in NBP is not due to increased primary productivity, but rather reduced respiration that is correlated (r = 0.58; P = 0.0007) and sensitive ( y = 4.05 to 9.40 PgC yr(exp -1) per C) to land temperatures. Global land models do not fully capture this apparent reduced respiration over the warming hiatus; however, an empirical model including soil temperature and moisture observations better captures the reduced respiration.

Ballantyne, Ashley↗

Synoptic Meteorology Explains Temperate Forest Carbon Uptake

Abstract While substantial attention has been paid to the effects of both global climate oscillations and local meteorological conditions on the interannual variability of ecosystem carbon exchange, the relationship between the interannual variability of synoptic meteorology and ecosystem carbon exchange has not been well studied. Here we use a clustering algorithm to identify a summertime cyclonic precipitation system northwest of the Great Lakes to determine (a) the association at a daily scale between the occurrence of this system and the local meteorology and net ecosystem exchange at three Great Lakes region forested eddy covariance sites and (b) the association between the seasonal prevalence of this system and the summertime net ecosystem exchange of these sites. We find that temperature, in addition to precipitation and cloud cover, is an important explanatory factor for the suppression of net ecosystem productivity that occurs during these cyclonic events in this region. In addition, the prevalence of this cyclonic system can explain a significant proportion of the interannual variability in summertime forest ecosystem exchange in this region. This explanatory power is not due to a simple accumulation of low‐productivity days that cooccur with this meteorological event, but rather a broader association between the frequency of these events and several aspects of prevailing seasonal conditions. This work demonstrates the usefulness of conceptualizing meteorology in terms of synoptic systems for explaining the interannual variability of regional carbon fluxes.

Randazzo, Nina A.↗

Decadal increases in carbon uptake offset by respiratory losses across northern permafrost ecosystems

Tundra and boreal ecosystems encompass the northern circumpolar permafrost region and are experiencing rapid environmental change with important implications for the global carbon (C) budget. We analysed multi-decadal time series containing 302 annual estimates of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) flux across 70 permafrost and non-permafrost ecosystems, and 672 estimates of summer CO 2 flux across 181 ecosystems. We find an increase in the annual CO 2 sink across non-permafrost ecosystems but not permafrost ecosystems, despite similar increases in summer uptake. Thus, recent non-growing-season CO 2 losses have substantially impacted the CO 2 balance of permafrost ecosystems. Furthermore, analysis of interannual variability reveals warmer summers amplify the C cycle (increase productivity and respiration) at putatively nitrogen-limited sites and at sites less reliant on summer precipitation for water use. Our findings suggest that water and nutrient availability will be important predictors of the C-cycle response of these ecosystems to future warming.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Modeling suggests fossil fuel emissions have been driving increased land carbon uptake since the turn of the 20th Century

Terrestrial vegetation removes CO 2 from the atmosphere; an important climate regulation service that slows global warming. This 119 Pg C per annum transfer of CO 2 into plants—gross primary productivity (GPP)—is the largest land carbon flux globally. While understanding past and anticipated future GPP changes is necessary to support carbon management, the factors driving long-term changes in GPP are largely unknown. In this study, we show that 1901 to 2010 changes in GPP have been dominated by anthropogenic activity. Our dual constraint attribution approach provides three insights into the spatiotemporal patterns of GPP change. First, anthropogenic controls on GPP change have increased from 57% (1901 decade) to 94% (2001 decade) of the vegetated land surface. Second, CO 2 fertilization and nitrogen deposition are the most important drivers of change, 19.8 and 11.1 Pg C per annum (2001 decade) respectively, especially in the tropics and industrialized areas since the 1970’s. Third, changes in climate have functioned as fertilization to enhance GPP (1.4 Pg C per annum in the 2001 decade). These findings suggest that, from a land carbon balance perspective, the Anthropocene began over 100 years ago and that global change drivers have allowed GPP uptake to keep pace with anthropogenic emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Spectral Indices to Monitor Nitrogen-Driven Carbon Uptake in Field Corn

Climate change is heavily impacted by changing vegetation cover and productivity with large scale monitoring of vegetation only possible with remote sensing techniques. The goal of this effort was to evaluate existing reflectance (R) spectroscopic methods for determining vegetation parameters related to photosynthetic function and carbon (C) dynamics in plants. Since nitrogen (N) is a key constituent of photosynthetic pigments and C fixing enzymes, biological C sequestration is regulated in part by N availability. Spectral R information was obtained from field corn grown at four N application rates (0, 70, 140, 280 kg N/ha). A hierarchy of spectral observations were obtained: leaf and canopy with a spectral radiometer; aircraft with the AISA sensor; and satellite with EO-1 Hyperion. A number of spectral R indices were calculated from these hyperspectral observations and compared to geo-located biophysical measures of plant growth and physiological condition. Top performing indices included the R derivative index D730/D705 and the normalized difference of R750 vs. R705 (ND705), both of which differentiated three of the four N fertilization rates at multiple observation levels and yielded high correlations to these carbon parameters: light use efficiency (LUE); C:N ratio; and crop grain yield. These results advocate the use of hyperspectral sensors for remotely monitoring carbon cycle dynamics in managed terrestrial ecosystems.

Corp, Lawrence A.↗

Remote Sensing of Evapotranspiration and Carbon Uptake at Harvard Forest

A land surface vegetation index, defined as the difference of microwave land surface emissivity at 19 and 37 GHz, was calculated for a heavily forested area in north central Massachusetts. The microwave emissivity difference vegetation index (EDVI) was estimated from satellite SSM/I measurements at the defined wavelengths and used to estimate land surface turbulent fluxes. Narrowband visible and infrared measurements and broadband solar radiation observations were used in the EDVI retrievals and turbulent flux estimations. The EDVI values represent physical properties of crown vegetation such as vegetation water content of crown canopies. The collocated land surface turbulent and radiative fluxes were empirically linked together by the EDVI values. The EDVI values are statistically sensitive to evapotranspiration fractions (EF) with a correlation coefficient (R) greater than 0.79 under all-sky conditions. For clear skies, EDVI estimates exhibit a stronger relationship with EF than normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Furthermore, the products of EDVI and input energy (solar and photosynthetically-active radiation) are statistically significantly correlated to evapotranspiration (R=0.95) and CO2 uptake flux (R=0.74), respectively.

Min, Qilong↗