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DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of the 2022 West Nile virus forecasting challenge, USA

Abstract Background West Nile virus (WNV) is the most common cause of mosquito-borne disease in the continental USA, with an average of ~1200 severe, neuroinvasive cases reported annually from 2005 to 2021 (range 386–2873). Despite this burden, efforts to forecast WNV disease to inform public health measures to reduce disease incidence have had limited success. Here, we analyze forecasts submitted to the 2022 WNV Forecasting Challenge, a follow-up to the 2020 WNV Forecasting Challenge. Methods Forecasting teams submitted probabilistic forecasts of annual West Nile virus neuroinvasive disease (WNND) cases for each county in the continental USA for the 2022 WNV season. We assessed the skill of team-specific forecasts, baseline forecasts, and an ensemble created from team-specific forecasts. We then characterized the impact of model characteristics and county-specific contextual factors (e.g., population) on forecast skill. Results Ensemble forecasts for 2022 anticipated a season at or below median long-term WNND incidence for nearly all (> 99%) counties. More counties reported higher case numbers than anticipated by the ensemble forecast median, but national caseload (826) was well below the 10-year median (1386). Forecast skill was highest for the ensemble forecast, though the historical negative binomial baseline model and several team-submitted forecasts had similar forecast skill. Forecasts utilizing regression-based frameworks tended to have more skill than those that did not and models using climate, mosquito surveillance, demographic, or avian data had less skill than those that did not, potentially due to overfitting. County-contextual analysis showed strong relationships with the number of years that WNND had been reported and permutation entropy (historical variability). Evaluations based on weighted interval score and logarithmic scoring metrics produced similar results. Conclusions The relative success of the ensemble forecast, the best forecast for 2022, suggests potential gains in community ability to forecast WNV, an improvement from the 2020 Challenge. Similar to the previous challenge, however, our results indicate that skill was still limited with general underprediction despite a relative low incidence year. Potential opportunities for improvement include refining mechanistic approaches, integrating additional data sources, and considering different approaches for areas with and without previous cases. Graphical Abstract

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Challenges of Safe Troubleshooting Work

Troubleshooting work presents electrical and other workers with a challenging combination of physical hazards, working conditions, and time pressure, which can lead to unwanted outcomes if not carefully managed. Summaries of several incidents in which workers were injured or at risk of injury while performing troubleshooting work are presented, identifying organizational weaknesses and error precursors that contributed to each incident. The primary challenges include: Deranged equipment. Equipment that needs troubleshooting is not in a normal operating condition. Actions that are safe when the equipment is in a normal state may not be safe in the deranged state. Work planning and control. The steps taken in troubleshooting are most often determined by the results of the immediately previous diagnostic test, making effective work planning challenging. Multiple types of hazards. Most equipment will present a troubleshooting worker with several types of hazards, including hazardous energy as defined in 29 CFR 1910.147. Portions of the troubleshooting activity may be infeasible without these hazards present. Time pressure. Restoring operation of failed equipment often involves an explicit or implicit sense of urgency. There are effective methods for addressing each challenge, most of which require a combination of advance preparation and management commitment.

Mertz, David E.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Identify and Assess Technical Challenges in Safeguards Measurements of Spent Advanced Reactor Fuels

Advanced reactor (AR) designs use various nuclear fuel types that can be significantly different than conventional light-water reactor (LWR) fuels, including differences in sizes, compositions, and chemical forms (e.g., oxide, carbide, metal). Nearly all the proposed AR fuels use high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU), which will have higher enrichments (5–20 wt% 235 U) than LWR fuels (currently limited to <5 wt% 235 U). In advance of the wide use of these new fuel types around the world, international safeguards organizations such as the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA]) are working with some of the AR vendors to formulate safeguards approaches for these AR fuel cycles. As part of the overall safeguards approach, it is important to identify the potential technical challenges in performing safeguards verification measurements of these AR fuels (both fresh and spent fuels) in advance of the widespread adoption of these new fuel types, because new safeguards technologies can take several years to develop, test, and approve for use. This report documents work performed in fiscal year 2024 based on modeling and simulation to assess the performance of the existing safeguards measurement technologies for irradiated or spent AR fuel elements or items. This work is a continuation of the work performed in fiscal year 2023 that focused on fresh AR fuels. Spent AR fuels have a distinct difference from their LWR counterparts: unlike the spent LWR fuels typically stored in a water-filled pool, some spent AR fuels—such as tristructural-isotropic (TRISO)-based fuels—will most likely be stored in air-filled hot cells. Because most safeguards measurements on spent fuel performed to date have been conducted under water, the air-filled hot cell environment could present unique challenges to safeguards measurements. Fork detector (FDET) and Cerenkov viewing device (CVD) systems have been the two primary instruments used by the IAEA for several decades to measure spent LWR fuel assemblies stored in pools for safeguards verification purposes. Because the lower refractive index of air causes Cerenkov light to be of lower intensity in air than in water, existing CVDs are likely unable to perform safeguards verification measurements for spent fuel stored in an air-filled hot cell, as is the case for the TRISO-based spent fuel elements (e.g., pebbles, graphite fuel blocks). Unlike FDET measurements, CVD measurements do not require fuel be moved, so they are a simpler and faster to take than FDET measurements. The inability to perform CVD measurements on the TRISO-based AR fuel types presents a major technical challenge in the effort to use existing technology to perform safeguards measurements on spent AR fuels. This study was mainly conducted through the modeling and simulation of an FDET or an FDET-like system on five spent AR fuel types, including one metallic fuel type and four TRISO-based fuel types in both pebble and graphite block forms in their respective storage configurations and environments. Because the various AR fuel types have significantly different dimensions, FDET systems must be adapted to accommodate them. Partial defect tests were also simulated in this study to assess the FDET’s ability to detect potential fuel diversions. The FDET measures the fuel’s total passive neutron and gamma emissions. The simulated FDET results from spent AR fuel items are compared against results from a typical spent pressurized water reactor (PWR) assembly. High-purity germanium (HPGe) gamma detector measurements were also simulated for the spent AR fuel types and the PWR assembly because the signature photopeaks have been used in LWR safeguards verifications, although HPGe is usually not used to detect diversions because of the fuel’s self-attenuation effects on those photopeaks. The results indicate that these detectors have significant challenges in performing safeguards measurements of the spent AR fuel items, including incompatibilities between AR fuel items and existing FDETs, lower neutron count rates, lower sensitivities to fuel diversions in certain AR fuel items, and significantly higher interference from a neighboring fuel item when the measurement is performed in air. These results suggest that an alternative technology or significant and timely technology development is needed to perform adequate safeguards measurements of some of these AR fuel items.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Marine Energy Commercialization Challenges & Support

Marine energy developers experience unique challenges in commercializing their early-stage technologies. This presentation outlines those unique challenges from the social, environmental, and financial perspectives, how those challenges are currently being addressed, and acts as the foundation for a breakout discussion on identifying further challenges developers experience and what other resources are being leveraged. This discussion will then precede short presentations from organizations that are already providing direct support to developers in this space and offer opportunities to connect. The content included in this presentation is a summary of the following technical report: https://docs.nlr.gov/docs/fy25osti/91213.pdf.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2024

Climate Challenges and Nonproliferation: Addressing the Issue through Technical Cooperation

Climate change is an urgent global challenge that is already severely impacting many regions of the world. The 2015 Paris Agreement was a landmark achievement, while the 2023 UN COP 28 Climate Conference in Dubai recognized nuclear energy and its applications as a proven and sustainable means to help societies adapt to climate change and take measures to mitigate and, possibly, reverse its effects. Twenty-two countries, supported by over 120 companies, pledged to triple the share of global nuclear energy generation by 2050. The global interest in nuclear applications for peaceful uses has never been higher. The deployment of advanced reactors around the globe – focused primarily on lowering the carbon footprint and allowing for socio-economic development – must be addressed responsibly through setting priorities for its implementation. Tackling the challenges that new technologies, such as advanced reactors, bring to the nonproliferation regime is at the top of the list. The regime stands on the three pillars of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT): nonproliferation, peaceful uses of nuclear energy, and disarmament. Recognizing the inherent risks of expanding applications of nuclear materials and technologies for peaceful uses, all such efforts must concurrently strengthen the nonproliferation norm enshrined in the NPT. The challenges of adapting to and mitigating climate change with the use of advanced reactors is already impacting the discussions and expectations about the future of the NPT. The dialog with non-traditional domestic, and international partners on a strategic technical cooperation approach is key to proposing and implementing scientific and technical solutions for urgent climate issues, while framing the discussion within nonproliferation requirements and commitments, and demonstrating the underlying value of the NPT in support of peaceful nuclear applications. This paper addresses adaptation to climate challenges and mitigation of them through advanced reactors and establishes nonproliferation linkages that derive from the deployment of this technology. This paper presents an assessment of the benefits of mechanisms for technical cooperation and peaceful uses of nuclear technology in the framework of Article IV of the NPT.

Prah, Christina↗

DOE OSTI2024

A review on protection challenges of Transmission Lines connected to Inverter Based Resources

The increased penetration of inverter-based resources (IBRs) connected to transmission grids is challenging how traditional electric power systems operate. Such systems were originally designed based on the dominant presence of synchronous generators. Some main challenges include the increased concerns about system stability due to the reduced system inertia caused by IBRs and the reduced protection reliability caused by the non-deterministic fault current response of IBRs. The protection relays’ algorithms have been designed and validated based on well-known fault current characteristics of synchronous generations, while the short-circuit responses of IBRs heavily depend on their vendor-specific control schemes, which are mainly set to protect inverter semiconductor switches and DC components. The magnitude of short current that IBRs contribute is typically between 1.1–1.5 times the rated current that may behave unstably and incoherently with the voltages. The control scheme of the IBRs also controls the active (P) and reactive (Q) support during system voltage sag and swell conditions. These characteristics challenge not only protective relay schemes but also existing short-circuit software tools to correctly model IBRs for fault studies and protection coordination analyses.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

JUMP Into STEM 2018-2025: Challenge Highlights and Implementation Guidance

Building sciences and technology directly impact human health, productivity, and resource consumption (e.g., energy and critical minerals). Addressing emerging challenges in this field requires skilled building science professionals. JUMP into STEM sought to inspire the next generation of building scientists through a real-world competition that introduced participants to the field and connected them with national laboratory and industry professionals. This report highlights select challenges from past competitions which are tailored for academic and industry professionals who aim to develop or recruit multidisciplinary talent. It also includes additional guidance to support the effective replication of these challenges.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Review on Protection Challenges of Transmission Lines Connected to Inverter-Based Resources

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Advances and Challenges of SCAN and r 2 SCAN Density Functionals in Transition‐Metal Compounds

ABSTRACT Transition‐metal compounds (TMCs) with open‐shell d ‐electrons are characterized by a complex interplay of lattice, charge, orbital, and spin degrees of freedom, giving rise to various fascinating applications. Often exhibiting exotic properties, these compounds are commonly classified as correlated systems due to strong inter‐electronic interactions called Hubbard U . This inherent complexity presents significant challenges to Kohn‐Sham density functional theory (KS‐DFT), the most widely used electronic structure method in condensed matter physics and materials science. While KS‐DFT is, in principle, exact for the ground‐state total energy, its exchange‐correlation energy must be approximated in practice. The mean‐field nature of KS implementations, combined with the limitations of current exchange‐correlation density functional approximations, has led to the perception that DFT is inadequate for correlated systems, particularly TMCs. Consequently, a common workaround involves augmenting DFT with an on‐site Hubbard‐like U correction. In recent years, the strongly constrained and appropriately normed (SCAN) density functional, along with its refined variant r 2 SCAN, has achieved remarkable progress in accurately describing the structural, energetic, electronic, magnetic, and vibrational properties of TMCs, challenging the traditional perception of DFT's limitations. This review explores the design principles of SCAN and r 2 SCAN, highlights their key advancements in studying TMCs, explains the mechanisms driving these improvements, and addresses the remaining challenges in this evolving field.

Zhang, Yubo [Minjiang Collaborative Center for The↗

DOE OSTI2025

Architectural Approaches for Integrating ADMS and DERMS: Challenges, Comparisons, and Real-World Use Cases

The electrical distribution landscape is rapidly transforming due to the proliferation of distributed energy resources (DERs) such as solar panels, wind turbines, battery storage systems, combined heat and power units, and electric vehicles, introducing variability and uncontrollability that traditional grid operators are ill-equipped to manage. This transformation is further accelerated by advancements in Information and Communication Technology infrastructure that connects control centers with end devices, demanding automation and a deeper understanding of new technologies by utility personnel. Advanced grid control techniques using system-level optimization, Artificial Intelligence, and Machine Learning at the enterprise level and distributed level are evolving to address these issues. There is also an opportunity to utilize the enormous data created by these new DER technologies in the grid. Advanced Distribution Management Systems (ADMS) and Distributed Energy Resource Management Systems (DERMS) are critical in addressing these challenges by automating grid operations and enhancing reliability. Given the relatively recent development of ADMS and DERMS, and the still relatively low level of ADMS and DERMS deployment in the industry, there is a notable deficiency in the comprehensive understanding of the challenges and benefits associated with these new technologies, especially with their complementary natures and integration architectures. This paper aims to bridge the knowledge gap in ADMS and DERMS integration, presenting three distinct integration architectures currently available, and discussing the challenges and benefits of each architecture to guide utilities, industry professionals, and researchers in optimizing grid management and decision-making processes for a resilient and efficient energy future.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

From MAST-U to STEP: Power exhaust control challenges and opportunities

This work explores the challenges and opportunities for power exhaust control in STEP, informed by dedicated MAST-U experiments. The STEP system primarily relies on hydrogenic and argon gas injection into the divertors, compensating for transients originating in the plasma core. Fast transients (>10 Hz) that evolve too quickly for actuators to compensate must be absorbed passively; the enhanced transient buffering of the foreseen long-legged divertor provides a clear advantage over conventional geometries, as demonstrated in the MAST-U Super-X divertor. Experiments further indicate that STEP’s tight divertor baffling enables near-independent control of the upper and lower divertors. The most challenging transients are expected from power-sharing fluctuations, as MAST-U experiments observed extremely fast dynamics. Fluctuations from core pellet fuelling remain relatively benign due to the small pellet size according to simulations. Exhaust control in a reactor like STEP requires an integrated approach befitting its machine-critical nature. A predictive control element, integrated with core plasma control, allows pre-emptive preparation of the divertor for incoming transients. An observer-based diagnostic approach is foreseen to monitor the divertor in the challenging reactor environment, supported by an extended diagnostic set in the non-nuclear phase to validate the required dynamic models.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Chemical Compensation Challenges in Processing Antiferroelectric PbZrO 3 Thin Films

The electric field-induced antipolar-to-polar phase transition in antiferroelectric materials is accompanied by large changes in the structural and functional response, making them attractive for many applications ranging from pulsed energy capacitors to high-strain-high (blocking-)force actuators, solid-state heating and cooling systems, and optoelectronic devices. PbZrO 3 , as an end member of the PZT, (x)PbZr 1–x Ti x O 3 , solid solution, has been the subject of many studies. However, processing of perovskite PbZrO 3 is extremely challenging due to phase instabilities induced by Pb loss at the temperatures necessary for perovskite crystallization. Here, we discuss the challenges associated with Pb loss, as well as its compensation through bulk Pb overstoichiometry and interfacial PbO additions, in chemical solution processed, highly oriented PbZrO 3 thin films. For both 042 o - and 001 o -oriented (o-orthorhombic distortion) PbZrO 3 thin films, the crystallization interfaces are the most important contributors to Pb loss and off-stoichiometric outcomes, and no single approach was sufficient to address these challenges. Pb-rich and Pb-deficient nonperovskite phases including ZrO x were only observable through microscopic characterization, and X-ray diffraction alone could not rule out the presence of such secondary phases. “Ideal” macroscopic antiferroelectric polarization-electric field double hysteresis curves were observed despite (at times) the large presence of secondary phases. However, reduced saturation polarization and increased phase transition electric fields were observed concomitantly with the presence of secondary phase(s) and tentatively assigned to the voltage drop across the ZrO x nanocrystals. Based on these results, it is imperative that the presence of secondary phases always be addressed (beyond X-ray diffraction spectra) in order to correctly evaluate the properties of antiferroelectric films.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Challenging conventional assumptions in PV: a high-throughput open-air approach to low-cost perovskite module production

Perovskite solar modules (PSMs) offer a promising pathway to low-cost photovoltaics, yet their commercialization is challenged by manufacturing scalability, device uniformity, additive costs, interlayer complexity, and module stability. This study introduces a comprehensive technoeconomic analysis of single junction PSM's and projections for tandem perovskite-Si modules that integrate all materials and manufacturing steps, module performances, projected lifetimes, and manufacturing costs across scales. Here, we highlight an open-air manufacturing approach to fabricate all active layers of serially interconnected PSMs, including electrodes and charge transport layers, enabling high-throughput production without inert or vacuum environments. The analysis reveals two orders of magnitude throughput enhancement and cost reductions of 24% in all-open-air production, escalating to over 60% at 1 GW factory capacity compared to conventional methods. Levelized cost of energy (LCOE) projections for utility-scale installations over 30 years, accounting for module replacement and recycling, demonstrate the potential to achieve the 2030 US target of $0.03 per kWh with realistic 7–11-year PSM lifetimes, outperforming incumbent silicon-based modules. Neither four terminal (4T) nor two terminal (2T) tandem-Si PSMs improve over single junction perovskite or silicon LCOE regardless of higher efficiencies at any modeled lifetime. Addressing PSM technical challenges with a cost-modeling framework guides commercialization efforts and provides a convincing pathway for challenging incumbent Si-based PV.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Numerical challenges for energy conservation in N -body simulations of collapsing self-interacting dark matter halos

Dark matter (DM) halos can be subject to gravothermal collapse if the DM is not collisionless, but engaged in strong self-interactions instead. When the scattering is able to efficiently transfer heat from the centre to the outskirts, the central region of the halo collapses and reaches densities much higher than those for collisionless DM. This phenomenon is potentially observable in studies of strong lensing. Current theoretical efforts are motivated by observations of surprisingly dense substructures. However, a comparison with observations requires accurate predictions. One method to obtain such predictions is to use N-body simulations. Collapsed halos are extreme systems that pose severe challenges when applying state-of-the-art codes to model self-interacting dark matter (SIDM). In this work, we investigate the root of such problems, with a focus on energy non-conservation. Moreover, we discuss possible strategies to avoid them. We ran N-body simulations, both with and without SIDM, of an isolated DM-only halo and we adjusted the numerical parameters to check the accuracy of the simulation. We find that not only the numerical scheme for SIDM can lead to energy non-conservation, but also the modelling of gravitational interaction and the time integration are problematic. The main issues we find are: (a) particles changing their time step in a non-time-reversible manner; (b) the asymmetry in the tree-based gravitational force evaluation; and (c) SIDM velocity kicks breaking the time symmetry. Tuning the parameters of the simulation to achieve a high level of accuracy allows us to conserve energy not only at early stages of the evolution, but also later on. However, the cost of the simulations becomes prohibitively large as a result. Some of the problems that make the simulations of the gravothermal collapse phase inaccurate can be overcome by choosing appropriate numerical schemes. However, other issues still pose a challenge. Our findings motivate further works on addressing the challenges in simulating strong DM self-interactions.

dark matter↗

DOE OSTI2025

Electrical signaling in fungi: past and present challenges

Abstract Electrical signaling is a fundamental mechanism for integrating environmental stimuli and coordinating responses in living organisms. While extensively studied in animals and plants, the role of electrical signaling in fungi remains a largely underexplored field. Early studies suggested that filamentous fungi generate action potential-like signals and electrical currents at hyphal tips, yet their function in intracellular communication remained unclear. Renewed interest in fungal electrical activity has fueled developments such as the hypothesis that mycorrhizal networks facilitate electrical communication between plants and the emerging field of fungal-based electronic materials. Given their continuous plasma membrane, specialized septal pores, and insulating cell wall structures, filamentous fungi possess architectural features that could support electrical signaling over long distances. However, studying electrical phenomena in fungal networks presents unique challenges due to the microscopic dimensions of hyphae, the structural complexity of highly modular mycelial networks, and the limitations of traditional electrophysiological methods. This review synthesizes current evidence for electrical signaling in filamentous fungi, evaluates methodological approaches, and highlights experimental challenges. By addressing these challenges and identifying best practices, we aim to advance research in this field and provide a foundation for future studies exploring the role of electrical signaling in fungal biology.

Buffi, Matteo↗

DOE OSTI2024

Collimator challenges at SuperKEKB and their countermeasures using nonlinear collimator

In SuperKEKB, movable collimators reduce the beam background noise in the Belle II particle detector and protect crucial machine components, such as final focusing superconducting quadrupole magnets (QCS), from abnormal beam losses. The challenges related to the collimator, which were not properly considered at the time of SuperKEKB design, have surfaced through experience with its operation. In this paper, we report the collimator operation strategy in SuperKEKB. In addition, a significant challenge of beam collimation due to the future increase in the beam background is highlighted. We also discuss another issue caused by unexpected and sudden beam losses in the machine that damage collimators, leading to weaker beam collimation performance and an increase in transverse impedance. Furthermore, we introduce a novel collimation approach called the nonlinear collimator (NLC) to address these challenges. We detail the concept of NLC and evaluate their effectiveness by assessing the collimator impedance, beam background reduction, and impact on the dynamic aperture. The possibility of using NLCs as absorber collimators to counteract events that damage the collimator is also shown to be helpful.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing Time Synchronization in Smart Grid With White Rabbit: Theory, Architecture, and Challenges

The smart grid aims to provide economically efficient and sustainable power to consumers with high quality and security. However, the increasing integration of distributed renewable energy sources presents challenges for smart grid protection and control systems. Here, to enhance smart grid operations, this article introduces White Rabbit (WR) as a more precise and accurate time synchronization technique. To explore White Rabbit’s potential applications in the smart grid, this study first explains existing time synchronization techniques and their limitations, followed by an analysis of the role and importance of time synchronization in smart grids. A comprehensive survey is then conducted, covering the theories, principles, implementations, performances, and existing application cases of White Rabbit. The findings suggest that White Rabbit is a promising technique for smart grid deployment. However, several challenges remain on the path to large-scale implementation. These challenges are analyzed in detail, highlighting key areas for future research.

Liu, Yu [University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (U↗

DOE OSTI2026

Associated Particle Imaging of Neutron Inelastic Scatter: 3-D Reconstruction, Capabilities, and Challenges

Associated particle imaging (API) offers unique advantages for 3-D imaging of neutron inelastic scatter, including single-view tomographic imaging and data acquisition when access is limited to only one side of the interrogated object. However, widespread adoption of neutron inelastic scatter imaging has been impeded by several inherent challenges, most prominently spatial resolution, self-attenuation, and statistical noise. Here, in this work, the capabilities and challenges of neutron inelastic scatter imaging are investigated. Instead of focusing on a single imaging application, we identify imaging principles that hold for various neutron inelastic scatter imaging techniques. The primary challenges for 3-D imaging are characterized. The inherent spatial resolution in the time-of-flight (TOF) dimension is derived based on the known system timing resolution and scan geometry. Three reconstruction algorithms are described and demonstrated, including the introduction of modern iterative reconstruction incorporating a physics-based system model. Simulation is leveraged to demonstrate imaging capability with varying coincidence count levels and system timing resolution. An example of measured data with both back-scatter and forward-scatter detector positioning is presented. System design characteristics and their effects on image quality are identified. The imaging framework presented in this article has the potential to facilitate growth of 3-D neutron inelastic scatter API by identifying applications that are a good match for the technique and by targeting system development resources toward the requirements of a specific imaging task.

Associated particle imaging (API)↗