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NASA NTRS2017

Chapter 12: Sea Level Rise

Global mean sea level (GMSL) has risen by about 7-8 inches (about 16-21 cm) since 1900, with about 3 of those inches (about 7 cm) occurring since 1993. Human-caused climate change has made a substantial contribution to GMSL rise since 1900, contributing to a rate of rise that is greater than during any preceding century in at least 2,800 years. Relative to the year 2000, GMSL is very likely to rise by 0.3-0.6 feet (9-18 cm) by 2030, 0.5-1.2 feet (15-38 cm) by 2050, and 1.0-4.3 feet (30-130 cm) by 2100. Future pathways have little effect on projected GMSL rise in the first half of the century, but significantly affect projections for the second half of the century. Emerging science regarding Antarctic ice sheet stability suggests that, for high emission scenarios, a GMSL rise exceeding 8 feet (2.4 m) by 2100 is physically possible, although the probability of such an extreme outcome cannot currently be assessed. Regardless of pathway, it is extremely likely that GMSL rise will continue beyond 2100. Relative sea level (RSL) rise in this century will vary along U.S. coastlines due, in part, to changes in Earth's gravitational field and rotation from melting of land ice, changes in ocean circulation, and vertical land motion (very high confidence). For almost all future GMSL rise scenarios, RSL rise is likely to be greater than the global average in the U.S. Northeast and the western Gulf of Mexico. In intermediate and low GMSL rise scenarios, RSL rise is likely to be less than the global average in much of the Pacific Northwest and Alaska. For high GMSL rise scenarios, RSL rise is likely to be higher than the global average along all U.S. coastlines outside Alaska. Almost all U.S. coastlines experience more than global mean sea level rise in response to Antarctic ice loss, and thus would be particularly affected under extreme GMSL rise scenarios involving substantial Antarctic mass loss. As sea levels have risen, the number of tidal floods each year that cause minor impacts (also called "nuisance floods") have increased 5- to 10-fold since the 1960s in several U.S. coastal cities. Rates of increase are accelerating in over 25 Atlantic and Gulf Coast cities. Tidal flooding will continue increasing in depth, frequency, and extent this century. Assuming storm characteristics do not change, sea level rise will increase the frequency and extent of extreme flooding associated with coastal storms, such as hurricanes and nor'easters. A projected increase in the intensity of hurricanes in the North Atlantic could increase the probability of extreme flooding along most of the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coast states beyond what would be projected based solely on RSL rise. However, there is low confidence in the projected increase in frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes, and the associated flood risk amplification and flood effects could be offset or amplified by such factors as changes in overall storm frequency or tracks.

Sweet, W. V.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Terrestrial sedimentation impact on coral and macroalgal cover in Puerto Rico's southwest coral reefs.

The coral reefs in southwest Puerto Rico (PR) have faced coral cover reduction in the last decades due to changes in its environment that can be related to sedimentation entrance resulting from anthropogenic activities in the watershed (i.e., agriculture and urban development). The Guánica Bay and La Parguera reef platforms are two natural reserves important for recreational and fishing activities. Nonetheless, their respective coral cover has decreased dramatically. Data from a previous NASA-funded project (HICE-PR) conducted between 2014-2018 was analyzed to better understand how the terrigenous sedimentation can affect the coral reef benthic composition in Guánica Bay and La Parguera. A one-way Nested ANOVA and a Tukey's HSD analyses were applied to find differences in benthic cover composition within and among the sites and location. The preliminary results showed differences in coral cover and macroalgae cover between the platforms reefs sites. The coral cover in La Parguera was higher and averaged 11.5% compared to that of Guánica (8.6%), while the macroalgae cover followed a similar pattern. Both coral cover and macroalgae in La Parguera and Guánica varied between from 2016 to 2018 with a general trend of increased coral cover in La Parguera and increase in macroalgae in Guánica. These trends can be related to the distance to the coastline as those reefs located closer to the coastline showed a greater percentage in macroalgal cover than those located farther. Cover of macroalgae and corals at reefs located a mid-distance to the coastline varied with no definite pattern detected. These results will be further correlated with variations in water quality obtained from remotely-sensed data (patterns of chlorophyll a, total suspended sediments, vertical attenuation coefficient) to support the prediction and tracking of coral cover changes in PR's southwest region.

macroalgal↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Using Landsat 8 Satellite Imagery to Analyze Biogeochemical Constituents in the Waters of the San Francisco Bay Area and Beyond

The ocean's coastal zones play a key role in our planet's health and mitigate the adverse effects of climate change. Building on the success of NASA satellite imagery in mapping land cover changes around the globe in response to climate change, deforestation, and natural disasters, I have worked to determine how aquatic reflectance images from the Landsat 8 sensor could be correlated with biogeochemical constituents within the waters of the San Francisco Bay Area and California coastline. By analyzing Landsat 8 satellite imagery from the years 2013-2020 in collaboration with data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS), San Francisco Estuary Institute (SFEI), and universities involved with the Harmful Algal Bloom Monitoring and Alert Program (HABMAP), I investigated which areas of the San Francisco Bay and California coastline demonstrated significant correlations with values extracted from the satellite imagery. Using a Chlorophyll Index (CI) ratio calculated from two Landsat 8 satellite reflectance bands, it was found that there is a positive correlation between the CI and calculated oxygen, suspended particulate matter, and silicate from several USGS sampling points. In contrast, there is a significant negative correlation between the CI and salinity, nitrite, and phosphate at those same locations. Moreover, large suspected harmful algal blooms (HABs) along the California coastline seen in the Landsat 8 imagery were corroborated with HAB data from various institutions. Understanding the effectiveness of Landsat 8 aquatic reflectance images will allow scientists to predict HABs and other nutrient cycling that may be harmful to aquatic ecosystems around the world.

Landsat↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Predictability of the Minimum Sea Ice Extent from Late Winter Fram Strait Ice Export: Model vs Observations

Late winter coastal divergence along the Eurasian coastline (referred to as the ice factory) – or the Fram Strait ice export, a proxy for coastal divergence in the ice factory – is a skillful predictor of the minimum sea ice extent (Williams et al., 2016; Brunette et al., 2018; Sesternikov and, 1979). Coastal divergence leads to the formation of coastal polynya where new ice grows but to a thickness that is not large enough to survive the following summer melt. This signal is then amplified by the ice albedo feedback and leads to more open water at the end of the summer melt season. In this thesis project, we will identify if this source of predictive skill in the seasonal forecast of the minimum sea ice extent is present in General Circulation Models, more precisely in the CESM2-LE, GISS-E2.1-G, GFDL FLOR-LE, CNRM-CM6-1 and the CanESM5. Since even small biases in the large-scale atmospheric circulation simulated by a model can short circuit this coupling between dominant modes of atmospheric variability (NAO and AO), coastal divergence along the Eurasian coastline, Fram Strait ice export and therefore seasonal forecasting skill of the model, failure to reproduce this coupling observed in the real Arctic will be used to identify biases in GCM. Preliminary results show that subtle changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation leads to opposite statistical relationship between Fram Strait ice area export, coastal divergence along the Eurasian coastline, and seasonal predictability of the minimum sea ice extent both in the CESM2-LE and the GISS-E2.1-G models. Differences are linked with the partitioning between recirculation within the Beaufort Gyre, ice exported through Fram Strait and ridging north of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago.

Sea ice↗

NASA NTRS2024

Predictability of the Minimum Sea Ice Extent from Winter Fram Strait Ice Area Export: Model vs Observations

Observations show predictive skill of the minimum sea ice extent (Min SIE) from late winter anomalous off-shore ice drift along the Eurasian coastline – leading to local ice thickness anomalies at the onset of the melt season – a signal then amplified by the ice-albedo feedback. We assess whether the observed seasonal predictability of September sea ice extent (Sept SIE) from Fram Strait Ice Area Export (FSIAE, a proxy for Eurasian coastal divergence) is present in Global Climate Model (GCM) large ensembles, namely the CESM2-LE, GISS-E2.1-G, FLOR-LE, CNRM-CM6-1, and CanESM5. All models show distinct periods where winter FSIAE anomalies are negatively correlated with the May sea ice thickness (May SIT) anomalies along the Eurasian coastline, and the following Sept Arctic SIE, as in observations. Counter-intuitively, several models show occasional periods where winter FSIAE anomalies are positively correlated with the following Sept SIE anomalies when the mean ice thickness is large or late in the simulation when the sea ice is thin, and/or when internal variability increases. More importantly, periods with weak correlation between FSIAE and the Sept SIE dominate, suggesting that summer melt processes dominate over late winter preconditioning and May SIT anomalies. In general, we find that the coupling between the FSIAE and ice thickness anomalies along the Eurasian coastline is an ubiquitous feature of GCMs and that the relationship with the following Sept SIE is dependent on the mean Arctic sea ice thickness.

off-shore ice drift↗

NASA NTRS1977

Glaciological and marine biological studies at perimeter of Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica

The author has identified the following significant results. A nearly complete map of the Dronning Land coastline from 10 deg W to 29 deg E was produced. Based on this, it was determined that for the past 20 years, the minimum calving rate from this part of the coastline was 60 cu km/year. The drift speeds were measured for ice floes and bergs between 9 and 20 km/day, and it was found that the number of ice floes of a given size decrease exponentially with size, so that each size class covers approximately the same area. A large melt phenomena at blue ice fields around 70 deg 45' S and 26-29 deg E was discovered.

Orheim, O.↗

NASA NTRS1983

The influence of coastal shape on winter mesoscale air-sea interaction

In cold air outbreaks, the combination of coastal shape and sea surface isotherms has a profound effect in the establishment of mesoscale atmospheric circulation, due to differential heating resulting from both overwater path length and underlying sea surface temperature (SST) variations. Where coastal effects are dominant, a mesoscale front forms downstream of the point which marks the major bend in the coastline's orientation. The strength of the induced mesoscale circulation depends on the original contrast between the land air temperature and the SST. It is noted that where the coastline and the isotherm pattern are approximately normal to the mean boundary layer flow, and thermal contrast is sufficiently large, the cloud streets formed downstream will be convective in nature, and oriented with the axis of roll vortices along the wind direction.

Atlas, D.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Calculation and accuracy of ERBE scanner measurement locations

The Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) uses scanning radiometers to measure shortwave and longwave components of the Earth's radiation field at about 40 km resolution. It is essential that these measurements be accurately located at the top of the Earth's atmosphere so they can be properly interpreted by users of the data. Before the launch of the ERBE instrument sets, a substantial emphasis was placed on understanding all factors which influence the determination of measurement locations and properly modeling those factors in the data processing system. After the launch of ERBE instruments on the Earth Radiation Budget Satellite and NOAA 9 spacecraft in 1984, a coastline projection method was developed to assess the accuracy of the algorithms and data used in the location calculations. Using inflight scanner data and the coastline detection technique, the measurement location errors are found to be smaller than the resolution of the scanner instruments. This accuracy is well within the required location knowledge for useful science analysis.

Hoffman, Lawrence H.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Regional rainfall climatologies derived from Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) data

Climatologies of convective precipitation were derived from passive microwave observations from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager using a scattering-based algorithm of Adler et al. Data were aggregated over periods of 3-5 months using data from 4 to 5 years. Data were also stratified by satellite overpass times (primarily 06 00 and 18 00 local time). Four regions (Mexico, Amazonia, western Africa, and the western equatorial Pacific Ocean (TOGA COARE area) were chosen for their meteorological interest and relative paucity of conventional observations. The strong diurnal variation over Mexico and the southern United States was the most striking aspect of the climatologies. Pronounced morning maxima occured offshore, often in concativities in the coastline, the result of the increased convergence caused by the coastline shape. The major feature of the evening rain field was a linear-shaped maximum along the western slope of the Sierra Madre Occidental. Topography exerted a strong control on the rainfall in other areas, particularly near the Nicaragua/Honduras border and in Guatemala, where maxima in excess of 700 mm/month were located adjacent to local maxima in terrain. The correlation between the estimates and monthly gage data over the southern United States was low (0.45), due mainly to poor temporal sampling in any month and an inadequate sampling of the diurnal cycle. Over the Amazon Basin the differences in morning versus evening rainfall were complex, with an alternating series of morning/evening maxima aligned southwest to northeast from the Andes to the northeast Brazilian coast. A real extent of rainfall in Amazonia was slightly higher in the evening, but a maximum in morning precipitation was found on the Amazon River just east of Manaus. Precipitation over the water in the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) north of Brazil was more pronounced in the morning, and a pronounced land-/sea-breeze circulation was found along the northeast coast of Brazil. Inter-comparison of four years revealed 1992 to be the driest over Amazonia, with about a 23% decrease in mean rate compared to the 4-year mean estimated rain rate.

Negri, Andrew J.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Air pollutant transport in a coastal environment. Part 1: Two-dimensional simulations of sea-breeze and mountain effects

Over the southern California coastal region, observations of the vertical distributions of pollutants show that maximum concentrations can occur within temperature inversion layers well above the surface. A mesoscale model is used to study the dynamical phenomena that cause such layers, including sea breezes and mountain flows, and to study the characteristics of air pollutant transport in a coastal environment capped by a temperature inversion. The mathematical and physical structure of the model is described. Two-dimensional simulations corresponding to four configurations of coastal plains and mountains are discussed. The simulations reveal that pollutant transport over a coastal plain is strongly influenced by the topographic configuration, including the height of coastal mountains and their distance from the coastline. Sea breezes induced by land-sea thermal contrasts, as well as upslope winds induced along mountain flanks, both create vertical transport that can lead to the formation of elevated pollution layers. The sea-breeze circulation generates pollution layers by undercutting the mixed layer and lofting pollutants into the stable layer. Heating of mountain slopes acts to vent pollutants above the mountain ridge during the day; during the evening, pollutants can be injected directly into the inversion layer from the decaying upslope flows. In a land-sea configuration with mountains close to the coastline, the sea breeze and heated-mountain flow are strongly coupled. In the afternoon, this interaction can produce upslope flow from which polluted air is detrained into the inversion layer as a return circulation. When the mountains lie farther inland, however, pollutants may be trapped aloft when the mixed layer stabilizes in the late afternoon. As the nocturnal boundary layer forms over the coast in the evening, polluted mixed-layer air is effectively left behind in the inversion layer. In the Los Angeles Basin, the formation mechanism for elevated polluted layers is most similar to our cases with inland mountains.

Lu, Rong↗

NASA NTRS1994

Observations of lightning in convective supercells within tropical storms and hurricanes

Cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning observations from land-based lightning detection networks now allow monitoring this component of the electrical structure of tropical storms and hurricanes within a few hundred kilometers of the United States coastline. Several case studies confirm the long-held opinion that lightning is rather common within the outer rainbands. The general absence of CG lightning within the interior of mature tropical cyclones is also apparent. On the other hand, bursts of CG lightning near the circulation center of developing storms appear to precede periods of further deepening. The CG events are associated with convective supercells, whose anvil canopies can often obscure much of the underlying storm. Near-eyewall CG bursts preceding periods of intensification were noted in Hurricanes Diana (1984) and Florence (1988). A detailed case study of the 1987 unnamed tropical storm that struck the Texas-Louisiana coastline reveals that lightning was associated with two large supercells. These supercells appeared to be the trigger for the development of a closed circulation that formed several hours after the apparent low pressure center made landfall. Further studies of lightning may provide additional insight into the role of convective supercells in tropical storm intensification. It may also provide a useful diagnostic of impending deepening.

Lyons, Walter A.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Declassified Intelligence Satellite Photography (DISP) Coverage of Antarctica

This report summarizes the results of a nine-week summer project examining all Declassified Intelligence Satellite Photography (DISP) of Antarctica. It was discovered that the data were collected in three separate missions during 1962 and 1963. The first two missions covered only the coastal areas, while the third mission covered the entire continent. Many of the 1782 frames collected were cloudy. This is especially true of West Antarctica. An optimal set of photographs covering the entire Antarctic coastline is identified along with some examples that show changes in the coastline which have occurred since the early 1960s.

Bindschadler, Robert↗

NASA NTRS2000

Reflected GPS Power for the Detection of Surface Roughness Patterns in Coastal Water

Coastal bays formed by the barrier islands of Delaware, Maryland and Virginia are parts of a coastal region known as a "Coastal Compartment". The coastal compartment between the Chesapeake and Delaware Bays is actually the mosaic of landscapes on the headland of the interfluve that separates these large drainage basins. The coastal compartments form a variety of different-shaped waterways landward of the coastline. Shape differences along the boundaries produce differences in exposure to wind and waves. Different shoreface topographies seaward of the coastline also influence surface roughness by changing wave-refraction patterns. Surface-water roughness (caused by waves) is controlled by a number of parameters, including fetch, shielding, exposure corridors, water-mass boundary conditions, wetland vegetation and water depth in coastal bays. In the coastal ocean, surface roughness patterns are controlled by shoreface shoaling and inlet refraction patterns in the coastal ocean. Knowledge of wave phenomena in the nearshore and backbarrier areas is needed to understand how wave climate influences important ecosystems in estuaries and bays.

Oertel, George, F.↗

NASA NTRS2006

M(sub W) = 7.2-7.4 Estimated for A.D. 900 Seattle Fault Earthquake by Modeling the Uplift of a Lidar-Mapped Marine Terrace

Inverse modeling of slip on the Seattle fault system, constrained by elevations of uplifted marine terraces, provides a well-constrained estimate of the magnitude of the largest known upper-crust earthquake in the Puget Sound region within the past 2500 years. The terrace elevations that constrain the slip inversion are extracted from elevation and slope images generated from LIDAR surveys of the Puget Sound collected in 1996-2002. The images reveal a single uplifted terrace, dated to 1000 cal yr B.P. near Restoration Point, which is morphologically continuous along the southern shoreline of Bainbridge Island and is visible at comparable elevations within a 25 km by 12 km region encompassing coastlines of West Seattle, Bremerton, East Bremerton, Port Orchard, and Waterman Point. Considering sea level changes since A.D. 900, the maximum uplift magnitudes of shoreline inner edges approach 9 m and are located at the southernmost coastline of Bainbridge Island and the northern tip of Waterman Point, while tilt magnitudes are modest - approaching 0.1 degrees. For each of several different Seattle fault geometry interpretations, we use a linear inversion code to solve for distributed slip on the fault surfaces. Moment magnitudes of 7.2 to 7.4 are calculated directly from the different slip solutions. In general, the greatest slip of the A.D. 900 event was confined to the frontal thrust of the Seattle fault system and was centered beneath Puget Sound between Restoration Point and Alki Point.

Jordan R. Muller↗

NASA NTRS2006

Forecasting of Storm-Surge Floods Using ADCIRC and Optimized DEMs

Increasing the accuracy of storm-surge flood forecasts is essential for improving preparedness for hurricanes and other severe storms and, in particular, for optimizing evacuation scenarios. An interactive database, developed by WorldWinds, Inc., contains atlases of storm-surge flood levels for the Louisiana/Mississippi gulf coast region. These atlases were developed to improve forecasting of flooding along the coastline and estuaries and in adjacent inland areas. Storm-surge heights depend on a complex interaction of several factors, including: storm size, central minimum pressure, forward speed of motion, bottom topography near the point of landfall, astronomical tides, and, most importantly, maximum wind speed. The information in the atlases was generated in over 100 computational simulations, partly by use of a parallel-processing version of the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model. ADCIRC is a nonlinear computational model of hydrodynamics, developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the US Navy, as a family of two- and three-dimensional finite-element-based codes. It affords a capability for simulating tidal circulation and storm-surge propagation over very large computational domains, while simultaneously providing high-resolution output in areas of complex shoreline and bathymetry. The ADCIRC finite-element grid for this project covered the Gulf of Mexico and contiguous basins, extending into the deep Atlantic Ocean with progressively higher resolution approaching the study area. The advantage of using ADCIRC over other storm-surge models, such as SLOSH, is that input conditions can include all or part of wind stress, tides, wave stress, and river discharge, which serve to make the model output more accurate. To keep the computational load manageable, this work was conducted using only the wind stress, calculated by using historical data from Hurricane Camille, as the input condition for the model. Hurricane storm-surge simulations were performed on an eight-node Linux computer cluster. Each node contained dual 2-GHz processors, 2GB of memory, and a 40GB hard drive. The digital elevation model (DEM) for this region was specified using a combination of Navy data (over water), NOAA data (for the coastline), and optimized Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar data (over land). This high-resolution topographical data of the Mississippi coastal region provided the ADCIRC model with improved input with which to calculate improved storm-surge forecasts.

Valenti, Elizabeth↗

NASA NTRS2010

Investigating the Performance of the Jason-2/OSTM Radar Altimeter Over Lakes and Reservoirs

Many inland water investigations utilize archival and near-real time radar altimetry data to enable observation of the variation in surface water level. A multi-altimeter approach allows a more global outlook with improved spatial resolution, and combined long-term observations improve statistical analyses. Central to all programs is a performance assessment of each instrument. Here, we focus on data quantity and quality pertaining to the Poseidon-3 radar altimeter onboard the Jason-2/OSTM satellite.Utilizing an interim data set (IGDR), studies show that the new on-board DIODE/median and DIODE/DEM tracking modes are performing well, acquiring and maintaining the majority of lake and reservoir surfaces in varying terrains. The 20-Hz along-track resolution of the data, and particularly the availability of the range output from the ice-retracker algorithm, also improves the number of valid height measurements. Based on test-case lakes and reservoirs, output from the ice-retracker algorithm is also seen to have a clear advantage over the ocean-retracker having better height stability across calm and icy surfaces, a greater ability to gain coastline waters, and less sensitivity to loss of water surface when there is island contamination in the radar echo. Such on-board tracking and postprocessing retracking enables the lake waters to be quickly gained after coastline crossing. Values can range from <0.1 s to 2.5 s, but the majority of measurements are obtained in less than 0.4 s or <2.3 km from the coast. Validation exercises reveal that targets of 150 km2 surface area and 0.8 km width are able to be monitored offering greater potential to acquire lakes in the 100 C300 km2 size-category. Time series of height variations are also found to be accurate to 3 to 33 cm rms depending on target size and the presence of winter ice. These findings are an improvement over the IGDR/GDR results from the predecessor Jason-1 and TOPEX/Poseidon missions and can satisfy the accuracy requirements of both the science-related and operational lake study programs.

Birkett, C. M.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Using Buoy and Radar Data to Study Sudden Wind Gusts Over Coastal Regions

Significant sudden wind gusts can pose a threat to aviation near the coastline, as well as small (sailing) boats and commercial ships approaching the ports. Such cases can result in wind speed changes of more than an order of magnitude within 5 minutes, which can then last up to 20 minutes or more. Although the constellation of scatterometers is a good means of studying maritime convection, those sudden gusts are not easily captured because of the low time resolution. The National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) provides continuous measurements of wind speed and direction along the US coastal regions every 6 minutes. Buoys are platforms placed at specific places on the seas, especially along coastlines, providing data for atmospheric and oceanic studies. Next Generation Radars (NEXRADs), after the recent upgrade of the network to dual-pol systems, offer enhanced capabilities to study atmospheric phenomena. NEXRADs provide continuous full-volume scans approximately every 5 minutes and therefore are close to the time resolution of the buoy measurements. Use of single- Doppler retrievals might also provide a means of further validation.

Winds↗

NASA NTRS2022

The Fourth Stokes Parameter for Geolocation in Passive Microwave Remote Sensing from Space

Polarimetric microwave radiometers such as SMAP are capable of measuring the fourth Stokes parameter in brightness temperature over the Earth surface. The value of this parameter is normally small but exhibits sharp spikes when the scene includes large differences in emission from the surface, such occur at land/water boundaries. In this manuscript, it is shown that these spikes can be used to accurately locate coastlines with potential application to geolocation in passive microwave remote sensing from space. Examples are presented using the L-band radiometer on SMAP, first with theory using calculations with the SMAP antenna pattern and orbit and then with SMAP measurements of the fourth Stokes parameter over Madagascar. Using the SMAP data, the coastline is located with a standard deviation less than 2 km. The results are consistent with the conventional approach used for geolocation of the SMAP radiometer footprint.

Passive Microwave Remote Sensing↗