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DOE OSTI2026

Value of Geothermal Energy Storage for Supply-Side and Demand-Side Applications

This report presents the results of a study examining the value potential for geothermal energy storage (GES), a long-duration energy storage resource that stores thermal and/or geomechanical energy in the subsurface. GES could benefit the overall U.S. power system by temporally shifting electricity generation (supply-side) or meeting building heating and cooling load (demand-side). This report analyzes supply-side and demand-side opportunities independently because of differences in applications and models. Currently there is significant uncertainty about the development costs for GES, with only a limited number of demonstration plants for electric energy storage and building heating and cooling storage developments. In this report, we estimate the value of supply-side and demand-side GES to the bulk power system in the contiguous United States. Because of the significant uncertainty about GES development costs, this analysis does not consider GES deployment costs but instead focuses on the value of GES to the U.S. electricity system. The estimated values of GES provide reference points for economically competitive commercial cost targets. Supply-side GES is modeled as part of an enhanced geothermal system (EGS) generation plant in NREL's Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) capacity expansion model (Ho et al. 2021). In contrast to conventional geothermal plants, which generate constant power, EGS plants have unique features that may allow for in-reservoir energy storage for flexible generation. Demand-side GES for heating and cooling, including seasonal hot and cold storage and short-duration heat pump storage, is incorporated into a price-taker model using Cambium electricity marginal cost projections. To establish an upper bound for the value of GES, analysis focused on favorable scenarios for storage with high generation from zero marginal cost, variable renewable energy resources. High penetrations of variable renewable energy generation can increase hourly electricity price variability, which increases the value of temporal energy arbitrage for storage technologies like GES.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Preliminary Assessment for the Electric Load Shifting Potential of Integrating Thermal Energy Storage with Heat Pumps in Residential Buildings in Texas of United States

The widespread adoption of electric-driven heat pumps for heating and cooling is expected to significantly increase electric demand. Cooling electric demand will result in an increase in peak hours electric loads, placing additional strain on the grid during peak hours. This challenge, combined with the current rapidly increasing demand from data centers, exacerbates the electric demand duck curve problem. Integrating thermal energy storage (TES) with heat pump can shift electric use for heating and cooling from peak to off-peak hours of the electric grid, which can help flatten the daily electric demand profile of a building. This paper presents a novel design that integrates heat pump with TES (HP-TES), which uses phase change materials (PCM). Heat pump charges TES by melting or freezing PCM during off-peak hours when there is no thermal demand from the building. TES is then discharged (i.e., by freezing or melting PCM) during peak hours to provide a more favorable heat source or heat sink for the heat pump to meet the thermal demand of the building with lower electricity use than conventional air-source heat pumps. Computer simulations were developed to predict the performance of HP-TES applied to a typical single-family house in the US. The building-level simulation results were scaled up to preliminarily assess the aggregated impacts of deploying HP-TES across all single-family houses in Texas of the United States, including reduction of peak demand of the electric grid.

Anees, Fady [ORNL]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Demonstration of gold nanorod systems for enhanced total efficiency: Experimental and numerical analysis

This study investigates the photothermal performance of gold nanorods engineered to exhibit longitudinal plasmon resonances at 695 nm, 780 nm, and 970 nm. The work combines synthesis, structural characterization, extinction measurements, numerical modeling, and controlled temperature experiments to quantify how nanorod geometry, resonance tuning, concentration, and chamber shape jointly influence heat generation. Transmission electron microscopy confirms that increasing nanorod aspect ratio systematically shifts the longitudinal plasmon peak toward the near-infrared region. Extinction measurements show strong agreement with theoretical predictions, validating the numerical model across two independent datasets. Three chamber geometries were tested under laser excitation at 640 nm, 808 nm, and 980 nm: an ascending stepped base, a flat base, and a descending stepped base. Without nanorods, the ascending geometry produced the highest efficiency due to enhanced natural convection. After introducing gold nanorods, all geometries exhibited substantial thermal enhancement, with total efficiencies exceeding 20%. The strongest improvement was obtained for nanorods resonant at 780 nm with a mass concentration of 4.6 mg/mL implemented on the descending stepped-base geometry. This performance resulted from the combined effect of spectral overlapping with the 808 nm laser, the highest nanorod concentration, and localized heat accumulation that intensified buoyancy-driven flow. The findings demonstrate that total efficiency is governed by a synergistic interplay between optical resonance, nanoparticle concentration, and macroscopic chamber design, revealing the system-level coupling between nanoscale plasmonic absorption and macroscale heat-transfer phenomena. The results provide a validated framework for tuning nanoscale plasmonic absorbers and optimizing thermal systems for applications requiring efficient light-to-heat conversion.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS2024

AC and DC Fault Management for Megawatt Electrified Aircraft Electrical Powertrains - Task 2: Power Quality Filtering Using Nanocrystalline Soft Magnetic Inductor

The NASA RTAPS program on AC and DC Fault Management for Megawatt Electrified Power Train is a multi-year joint project with Pratt & Whitney (P&W), Collins Aerospace (CA), and RTX Technology Research Center (RTRC). This research program focuses on the high-voltage distribution issues that present a significant technological obstacle in the adoption of Electrified Aviation Propulsion (EAP) systems. One challenge to the adoption of high-voltage distribution systems with power electronic converters is the need for filter elements to limit the generation and propagation of noise, protect the cable systems from premature aging and prevent against excessive heating within subcomponents due to high-frequency induced currents. While increased distribution voltages aide in reducing the cable mass for a fixed power system, the associated mass with the filtering elements for power electronic converter can grow with increasing distribution voltages – thereby mitigating any benefit associated with increasing the distribution system voltage. To enable high-voltage distribution systems with high system specific power densities, new magnetic materials must be developed. Therefore, the second task of the NASA RTAPS program is associated with the design and application of advanced soft magnetic components for Megawatt class electric propulsion systems, specifically the motor drive system. This report covers the collaborative work between NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC), RTRC, P&W and CA in the development of three types of magnetic components over the span of the three-year program. These critical magnetic components are the DC side EMI filter, which limits the propagation of harmful electromagnetic noise to the rise of the distribution system, and the AC side damping with the dv/dt filter, which limits the fast rise time of the power electronic converter output voltage to limit the degradation on the cable/motor insulation systems. Each of these components are investigated from component level design and are optimized at the system level with a combined modelling and testing effort. In the final experimental evaluation of the NASA developed soft magnetic material with a dv/dt filter, a commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) magnetic core and the GRC magnetic core are optimized and loaded at 320Arms to evaluate their difference in performance. After a run time of 30 minutes in a MW-class motor driver at RTRC, the NASA GRC cores were found to not only offer a lower temperature rise of nearly 25°𝐶, but also a reduction in measured core loss of 25% (12.75W to 9.5W).

Elecrified Aircraft Propulsion↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Experimental Characterization of Additively Manufactured Nickel-Titanium Shape Memory Alloy Heat Pipes

Shape memory alloys (SMA) have been identified for use in spacecraft components as replacement for conventional deployment mechanisms. They may be used in thermal management components such as radiators to create self-deploying radiators. One SMA, NiTi, has also been developed for additive manufacturing processes. Heat pipes are a common way to create highly effective and lightweight spaceflight radiators, and heat pipes can also be made from NiTi and related alloys. The wick is the critical element of a functioning heat pipe, and recent progress over the past years has led to the development of additively manufactured heat pipe wicks in various materials. The combination of these efforts is the focus of this project: creating an additively manufactured, shape memory alloy self-deploying heat pipe radiator. This paper will focus on the experimental characterization of these additively manufactured NiTi heat pipes. The heat pipe coupons were additively manufactured by direct metal laser sintering (DMLS), with an integral liquid cooled condenser. Heat is input to the heat pipe via a thin film heater. Thermocouples were spot welded to the heat pipes to measure temperature at several axial locations. The heat pipes were tested with two working fluids: water and ethanol. Ethanol is not an ideal working fluid for heat pipes but is useful in characterizing them because it wets well to a wide variety of surfaces. Water is in general a superior working fluid for heat pipes, but its contact angle and therefore wicking performance strongly depends on the surface chemistry of the surface it is in contact with. A particular measurement of interest in this test is the evaporator to condenser thermal conductance, which will be compared in the full paper to recently published correlations for additively manufactured heat pipes. Experimental results for two straight geometry and one bellows geometry heat pipe will be presented. The bellows geometry is of interest for condenser of the self-deploying radiator design.

Additive manufacturing↗

DOE OSTI2026

First Wall Design of a Tokamak Pilot Plant Using a Monte Carlo Model for 3-D Heat Flux Deposition

We present a method for calculating the heat fluxes deposited on nonaxisymmetric tokamak first wall components, allowing for a first-of-its-kind model for power handling in the tokamak far scrape-off layer (SOL). The DIV3D Monte Carlo model features strict global power conservation and can calculate the finite cross-field plasma transport into magnetically-shadowed regions, which is significant when dealing with meter-scale shadows introduced by components such as poloidal limiters or antennas. As a case study, we apply the DIV3D model to inform the distribution of first wall poloidal limiters in an ARC-class reactor device. We demonstrate that discrete protection limiters can efficiently reduce peak heat fluxes on recessed breeder wall components in the presence of significant far-SOL plasma fluxes. By varying the toroidal periodicity and radial standoff depth of the limiters, we demonstrate one of the tradeoffs that must be considered in first wall design: more limiters provide greater protection, but at the cost of reduced breeding performance. We also present the impact that radial misalignments between limiters would have on first wall power loading.

Monte Carlo methods↗

DOE OSTI2026

Modeling Occupant Core Temperatures Across the Boston Building Stock to Advance Public Health

In recent history, extreme heat has been the cause of most deaths from a natural disaster. Exposure to extreme heat can aggravate preexisting conditions, increase hospitalization, and even cause death. Thus, modeling the thermal resilience of households across the United States will allow for a quantitative assessment of the health and safety risks posed by extreme heat. For the first time, we simulate occupant comfort in representative households across Boston by combining the granular results of the ResStock(TM) model with a two-node heat strain model. This model calculates occupants' core body temperature in each simulated household over a year. We compare the simulated core temperatures to two public health metrics: hyperthermia and heat stroke. Our results show for households in Boston that do not have or use aid conditioning, thousands potentially experience many dangerous heat events each summer and these events can last for more than a day at a time. These heat events peak during the late afternoon and evening, just as residents are coming home, cooking meals, and trying to go to sleep. We have found that multi-family buildings, renters, and low-income homes in more airtight and insulated homes are the most at risk for these events. These results demonstrate the scale and urgency of exposure to extreme heat.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

Modeling a generic TRISO-fueled heat pipe microreactor using SCALE: Depletion, transportation criticality, and shielding

This paper demonstrates the applicability of the SCALE code system to tristructural-isotropic (TRISO)-fueled heat pipe microreactors through depletion, transportation criticality, and shielding analyses of a generic reference design. The study conducted supports US Nuclear Regulatory Commission code readiness efforts for advanced non–light-water reactor technologies and is intended as a code capability demonstration rather than as an optimization of a specific microreactor design. The modeled reactor employs high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) uranium oxycarbide (UCO) TRISO fuel and beryllium oxide (BeO) reflectors and operates at 7.5 MWth with a nominal lifetime of about 3 effective full power years. Representative cases for fresh and irradiated cores were selected to exercise SCALE methods relevant to reactor operation and post-irradiation transport. The discharged-core decay heat is approximately 6% of operating power immediately after shutdown. Transportation criticality calculations show that internal water ingress is the dominant reactivity effect, with fully flooded fresh core and irradiated core configurations remain above the subcriticality criterion, even with the available control mechanisms. Shielding calculations for a simplified transportation package indicate that normal-condition dose rates are governed mainly by shielding thickness and cooling time, whereas the breached hypothetical accident case is governed primarily by cooling time. Overall, the study shows that SCALE supports depletion, transportation criticality, and shielding evaluations efficiently for TRISO-fueled heat pipe microreactors within a single code system.

Criticality↗

NASA NTRS2026

Parametric-Based Heat Rejection Trade Study for Lunar and Martian Surface Operations

Establishing and maintaining a sustained presence on the lunar and/or Martian surfaces will require a diverse portfolio of surface elements (e.g., habitation, mobility, power generation, etc.). Many of these systems generate excess heat that must be rejected across a wide range of magnitudes, temperatures, and duty cycles and under variable environmental conditions. To identify the most promising heat rejection approaches for this diverse portfolio, a heat rejection trade study was conducted to evaluate the performance of different technology approaches across a spectrum of surface environments and heat-load requirements. The trade study consisted of three stages: (1) development of a parametric-based modeling framework, (2) creation of a database of heat rejection technologies, surface elements, and environmental conditions for the Moon and Mars, and (3) execution of a quantitative analysis of various heat rejection technologies across different operating conditions and surface elements. The modeling framework is developed in Python and Excel to prioritize small model size and hence low computational cost to enable large parametric sweeps while avoiding the reliance on proprietary software. Individual heat rejection processes are represented as simple Excel models, and a centralized Python script interfaces with the models to coordinate the parametric study. These simple sizing models were developed to take heat load requirements and environmental parameters as inputs and compute mass, power, and volume as outputs. Rather than assess each heat rejection technology separately for each surface element, a unified parametric space was developed to evaluate all technologies across all elements. This parametric space includes factors related to heat load (e.g., magnitude or temperature) and environment (e.g., surface temperature, sky temperature, solar flux). This effort generated a database containing information on over 60 heat rejection technologies and 30 surface elements. For each surface element, the expected heat rejection requirements were documented and analyzed to determine the most common needs shared across all elements. Environmental conditions at various lunar and Martian latitudes were also established for worst-case hot and worst-case cold scenarios. High-fidelity heat rejection models are currently under development. Preliminary trades between heat rejection technologies including radiators, venting technologies, convective coolers, and more have been conducted to identify promising options. This presentation will summarize the preliminary trade results and provide an overview and discussion of the expected heat loads and thermal environments for sustained surface operations on the Moon and Mars.

Heat Rejection↗

DOE OSTI2026

Application of Ibuprofen Sodium Dihydrate for Thermochemical Energy Storage

Thermochemical energy storage (TCES) offers a transformative approach to address grid instability by harnessing reversible chemical reactions for efficient heat storage and release. Here, we introduce pharmaceutical organic salt hydrates as a class of materials with exceptional performance for low-grade waste heat recovery. We demonstrate ibuprofen sodium dihydrate (ISD) as an example organic hydrate exhibiting a dehydration temperature range of 60-110 °C and a remarkable dehydration enthalpy of up to 59.5 kJ/mol of water, ideally suited for capturing industrial and residential waste heat. Using rigorous multimodal characterization, including thermogravimetric analysis, differential scanning calorimetry, in-situ FTIR, in-situ PXRD, and NMR, we demonstrate ISD's superior thermal, chemical, and structural stability over 150 hydration-dehydration cycles, achieving an unprecedented cycling efficiency of ~99.9%. Compared to conventional inorganic salt hydrates like strontium chloride hexahydrate and calcium oxalate monohydrate, ISD showcases enhanced durability without deliquescence or pulverization, even under high-humidity conditions. In-situ analyses confirm the transition from ISD to ibuprofen sodium anhydrous (ISA) proceeds with structural reorganization, thereby combining the dehydration mechanism with phase transitions, resulting in higher energy storage capacity. Microstructural analyses reveal that repeated water intercalation and structural transitions aid in creating significant porosity that enhances water transport kinetics, further improving the hydration/dehydration performance. By combining the phase change and chemical dehydration mechanisms, ISD paves the way for designing a new class of organic salt hydrates, offering tunable properties to meet diverse thermal energy storage demands and supporting sustainable grid resilience.

Thangaraj, Kavin C.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Battery Pack Shape Optimization using Transient Heat Conduction Coupled with Cell-Discharge Analysis

Battery electric systems exhibit significant time-dependence, especially when evaluated in the context of an aircraft mission profile with continually changing power demands. Additionally, when evaluating battery-powered aircraft concepts, it is important to accurately compute the temperature of the batteries and properly characterize the thermal response of the system. The temperature of the batteries has a significant impact on cell performance, in addition to safety considerations of maintaining battery temperatures below their operating limit. Because of these considerations, battery models for preliminary design and optimization of aircraft should include the capability to accurately compute the temperature distribution within the battery pack. Furthermore, battery pack designs should be as light-weight as possible to maximize the pack energy density, while also considering battery temperature limits. Here, we demonstrate a simultaneous trajectory and shape optimization of a battery pack concept, using a transient heat transfer finite element model coupled with a time-varying cell-discharge battery model to provide this capability. Including the transient finite element problem in the loop enables accurate temperatures that can be passed back to the cell discharge model, while the cell discharge model can supply the finite element model with time-varying heat boundary conditions to the finite element problem, further benefiting the fidelity of the thermal response of the batteries. We first demonstrate the coupling capability between the battery cell-discharge model and the transient finite-element heat transfer through an optimization which computes the optimal current profile for the battery pack while ensuring the battery temperatures remain below their operational limit. We then build on this optimization by adding shape optimization to the problem, which allows us to consider a composite objective function which also minimizes the mass of the battery pack, while also producing an optimal current discharge profile.

Optimization↗

DOE OSTI2026

Powered By SAM [Slides]

The System Advisor Model(TM) (SAM) is a free, open-source desktop application for techno-economic analysis of energy technologies. By combining detailed performance modeling with financial analysis, SAM allows users to assess technology trade-offs, explore future scenarios, and make informed decisions about energy investments. Users also have access to model details and the ability to embed SAM's core models in their own applications. This webinar, hosted by National Laboratory of the Rockies researchers Janine Keith and Matt Prilliman, highlights how this widely used modeling tool supports data-driven decision-making for energy systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Battery Pack Shape Optimization using Transient Heat Conduction Coupled with Cell-Discharge Analysis

Battery electric systems exhibit significant time-dependence, especially when evaluated in the context of an aircraft mission profile with continually changing power demands. Additionally, when evaluating battery-powered aircraft concepts, it is important to accurately compute the temperature of the batteries and properly characterize the thermal response of the system. The temperature of the batteries has a significant impact on cell performance, in addition to safety considerations of maintaining battery temperatures below their operating limit. Because of these considerations, battery models for preliminary design and optimization of aircraft should include the capability to accurately compute the temperature distribution within the battery pack. Furthermore, battery pack designs should be as light-weight as possible to maximize the pack energy density, while also considering battery temperature limits. Here, we demonstrate a simultaneous trajectory and shape optimization of a battery pack concept, using a transient heat transfer finite element model coupled with a time-varying cell-discharge battery model to provide this capability. The transient finite-element analysis is done using TACS, and the cell-discharge battery model uses OpenMDAO and dymos. Including the transient finite element problem in the loop enables accurate temperatures that can be passed back to the cell discharge model, while the cell discharge model can supply the finite element model with time-varying heat boundary conditions, further benefiting the fidelity of the thermal response of the batteries. We first demonstrate the coupling capability between the battery cell-discharge model and the transient finite-element heat transfer through an optimization which computes the optimal current profile for the battery pack while ensuring the battery temperatures remain below their operational limit. We then build on this optimization by adding shape optimization to the problem, which allows us to consider a composite objective function which also minimizes the mass of the battery pack, while also producing an optimal current discharge profile.

Optimization↗

NASA NTRS2026

Simulating the Lunar Thermal Environment for the Surface-Deployed LEMS Artemis III TVAC Test

The Lunar Environment Monitoring Station (LEMS) is an autonomous, survive-the lunar-night seismic suite to be deployed on the Lunar surface by the Artemis III crew and designed to operate continuously for two years. It will see the extremes of the Lunar south pole thermal environment where surface temperatures range from -200°C to +20°C and where nighttime duration is at least 354 hours. Given power and mass constraints, the thermal system is limited to 2.5 Watts of heat during the lunar night. Presented is the system thermal vacuum test plan and configuration to validate the thermal control system performance in a flight-like environment. The test will measure the nighttime heat leaks for the bus and 18 seismometers to ensure lunar night survival and operability.

TVAC↗

DOE OSTI2026

Integrated Magnetics for Multiport Inductive and Conductive Power Transfer Architecture for Electric Vehicles

This paper proposes a shared magnetic arrangement for an electric-vehicle charger that supports both conductive and inductive charging while preserving independent power control at the two ports. In the proposed implementation, the high-frequency transformer used for the conductive path and the resonant inductor required by the inductive path are realized in an integrated form. By combining the magnetic structure and primary-side converter hardware, the charger can deliver improved hardware utilization and higher power density without a corresponding increase in cost or implementation complexity. The paper describes the magnetic realization and presents finite-element and circuit-level simulation results to confirm minimal interaction between the two charging paths. The study demonstrates that the proposed charger is a viable option for flexible, high-power EV charging systems.

Mukherjee, Subho [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000672297925)↗

DOE OSTI2024

The first high-redshift cavity power measurements of cool-core galaxy clusters with the International LOFAR Telescope

Radio-mode feedback associated with the active galactic nuclei (AGNs) at the cores of galaxy clusters injects a large amount of energy into the intracluster medium (ICM), offsetting radiative losses through X-ray emission. This mechanism prevents the ICM from rapidly cooling down and fueling extreme starburst activity as it accretes onto the central galaxies, and it is therefore a key ingredient in the evolution of galaxy clusters. However, the influence and mode of feedback at high redshifts (z ∼ 1) remains largely unknown. Low-frequency sub-arcsecond-resolution radio observations taken with the International LOFAR Telescope have demonstrated their ability to assist X-ray observations with constraining the energy output from the AGNs (or “cavity power”) in galaxy clusters, thereby enabling research at higher redshifts than before. In this pilot project, we tested this hybrid method on a high-redshift (0.6 < z < 1.3) sample of 13 galaxy clusters for the first time with the aim of verifying the performance of this method at these redshifts and providing the first estimates of the cavity power associated with the central AGN for a sample of distant clusters. We were able to detect clear radio lobes in three out of 13 galaxy clusters at redshifts of 0.7 < z < 0.9, and we used these detections in combination with ICM pressures surrounding the radio lobes obtained from standard profiles to calculate the corresponding cavity powers of the AGNs. Combining our results with the literature, the current data appear to suggest that the average cavity power peaked at a redshift ofz ∼ 0.4 and slowly decreases toward higher redshifts. However, we require more and tighter constraints on the cavity volume and a better understanding of our observational systematics to confirm any deviation of the cavity power trend from a constant level.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2026

Heat Transfer Fluids as Co‐Diluents in Localized High‐Concentration Electrolytes for High‐Rate Lithium Metal Batteries With Enhanced Safety

Localized high-concentration electrolytes (LHCEs) have been identified as promising electrolyte formulations for lithium metal batteries, due to their effective interphase formation and promotion of compact Li deposition, yet their practical implementation is often limited by reduced ion transport kinetics. In this study, two industrially established fluorinated ethers are identified for the first time in battery research as effective co-diluents as they combine a broad electrochemical stability window with a low viscosity and intrinsic non-flammability. Incorporating these components, commonly used as heat transfer fluids, yields safer, less flammable electrolyte formulations with enhanced ion mobilities. In particular, the ternary co-diluent formulation shows improved ion mobility by reducing the electrolyte's viscosity while limiting excessive ion clustering. Based on the improved electrolyte transport kinetics, lower overvoltages and higher Coulombic efficiencies at current densities ≥ 1 mA cm −2 are achieved with the ternary co-diluent blend, resulting in markedly extended cycle life in an application-oriented zero-excess pouch cell compared with the baseline system. Complementary electrochemical and ex situ analysis of harvested electrodes at moderate current densities reveals no discernible differences in interphase morphology and composition, suggesting enhanced ion mobility as the primary cause of the improved high-rate performance.

electrolyte diluent↗

DOE OSTI2026

Thermal Reservoir Networks for Modularly Expandable Thermal Microgrids

The Department of Defense (DoD) faces the substantial challenge of cost-effectively retrofitting one to two installations per month, each comprising approximately 1,000 buildings, to improve resilience, reduce energy consumption, and enhance energy supply security. Achieving these objectives requires optimal system selection and effective risk mitigation during system integration. To address this need, we introduce Platform-Based Design (PBD), a structured, hierarchical methodology adapted from other industrial sectors to the domain of energy system retrofits. We demonstrate the effectiveness of PBD through a techno-economic feasibility study comparing geothermal-coupled thermal energy networks (TENs) with conventional energy systems for heating, cooling, and powering 17 buildings at Joint Base Andrews (JBA) in Maryland. Our analysis illustrates that the PBD approach enables rigorous, data-driven, sequential decision making, resulting in a family of Pareto-optimal systems, among which the TEN emerged as the most promising solution. The selected TEN design integrates geothermal borefields, heat recovery heat pumps, photovoltaic (PV) arrays, and battery storage. Compared to the baseline system – gas heating combined with air-source chillers – the proposed TEN reduces annual imported energy by 74% and peak electricity demand by 45%, achieves a levelized cost of energy of $\$0.210$/kWh, and substantially enhances resilience. Life-cycle costs increase by approximately 6%, and initial investment costs are about 2.5 times higher than the baseline. However, if central plant infrastructure, district loops, and utility-scale PV and battery systems are privately funded and operated, the initial investment would fall below the baseline system cost. Critical to achieving these significant performance improvements were detailed nonlinear dynamic simulations coupling geothermal heat transfer, energy system operation, and realistic feedback control logic. These simulations identified essential design modifications and control strategy refinements that substantially reduced energy use, peak demand, and compressor shortcycling, thereby improving durability and reliability—issues that would have been significantly more expensive to resolve during operation. Additionally, the verification step highlighted sensitivities to key design parameters that could reduce initial investment by approximately $\$2$ million and reduce annual life-cycle costs more than $\$300,000$. We recommend adopting the PBD methodology for future feasibility studies and TEN pilot projects to gain valuable operational experience. Furthermore, we recommend that DoD invest in transferring and scaling the PBD methodology to other installations. This entails developing standardized computational frameworks and component libraries as well as training industry in conducting PBD. Such investments would enable rapid, robust, reliable, and cost-effective retrofits, supporting DoD’s ambitious energy system modernization goals.

Wetter, Michael [Lawrence Berkeley National Labora↗