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Markov Decision Processes for Intelligent, Risk-Informed Asset-Management Decision-Making

Advanced nuclear reactors are a promising option for aiding the world in achieving its net-zero carbon emission goals, however, there are significant challenges to attaining and maintaining economic competitiveness with other sources of electricity. To improve the economic competitiveness of advanced reactor designs, a project was initiated to explore the use of Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) to guide asset-management decision-making during advanced reactor operation. MDPs are a powerful tool for optimizing decision-making in complex environments and their application to advanced reactors can aid in planning maintenance and repair activities to minimize downtime and maximize generation. The described approach expands on previous work regarding the use of MDPs for operational decision-making through the direct incorporation of real-time plant information. The integral MDP analysis includes information from online component diagnostic tools and the plant’s real-time generation risk assessment (GRA) and probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), which evaluate plant risk from both an economic and safety perspective. The result is an asset-management optimization framework that is based on real-time data regarding plant component status and the current best-estimate of plant risk. The paper presents an overview of the theoretical framework to incorporate the different information pathways into an integral MDP analysis, along with example analyses.

Grabaskas, David↗

5G integrated edge computing platform for efficient component monitoring in coal-fired power plants

This project developed a cutting-edge 5G-integrated edge computing framework to enhance operational efficiency and reliability in coal-fired power plants through real-time component monitoring and anomaly detection. The initiative focused on leveraging distributed machine learning, federated learning, and 5G-based dynamic network slicing to support scalable, fault-tolerant monitoring environments to meet the operational requirements in industrial control systems. With a Distributed Edge Computing Service (DECS) orchestration, this project enabled federated learning at edge for condition monitoring and introduced adaptive client selection strategies to minimize communication overhead. Scalable distributed training was achieved using the Horovod framework, thus enhancing performance across edge nodes. In the realm of 5G networking, the project designed and deployed reconfigurable, QoS-aware network slicing tailored for operational technology (OT) environments, integrating software-defined networks to bolster cyber-resilience and enabling dynamic slicing for federated learning workloads. A significant milestone was the development of a virtualized ICS environment with 5G core integration—which allowed elastic and fault tolerant distributed training on real-world datasets such as NASA Bearings, Hydraulic Systems, and TEP. To broaden the impact of the project, a TRL-3 virtualized ICS testbed for research and education was designed. This project engaged several graduate and undergraduate students to conduct research on the cutting-edge technology, and it resulted in one PhD dissertation, one MS thesis, and over 14 peer-reviewed publications. With the support of this project students also participated in national cybersecurity competitions to improve their professional development skills.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Low-Cost Sulfur Thermal Storage for Solar Industrial Process Heat Applications

Industrial process heat (IPH) is one of the largest energy demands in U.S., representing about 10% of all domestic energy consumption. Fuel costs to generate this industrial process heat are generally a top three cost for industry, a major component in American manufacturing competitiveness. Roughly 60% of US IPH demand (about 6,500 TBtu annually) falls in the medium-temperature range of 100–250 °C. While concentrated solar thermal (CST) technologies can provide a cost-effective source of heat in this temperature range, solar intermittency limits their adoption in industries that operate 24/7. Element 16 Technologies, Inc. developed a low-cost sulfur thermal energy storage (TES) technology to bridge this gap by capturing excess solar heat during the day and dispatching it reliably during non-solar hours. The core innovation is the use of sulfur, an abundant, industrial waste byproduct that costs ten times less than molten salt used in commercial TES systems. The overall goal of the project was to advance the design and development of molten sulfur TES to a manufacturing-relevant prototype stage for solar industrial process heat applications, while establishing and validating a realistic pathway to commercial success. Key tasks included corrosion and mechanical durability testing to identify cost-effective materials, design investigations using physics-based simulation tools, techno-economic evaluations of system lifetime costs, and pilot-scale testing for performance verification. Corrosion testing of steel alloys under cyclic molten sulfur conditions showed that austenitic stainless steels in the 300 series performed particularly well, with no structural degradation of welds or joints. Thermal cyclic testing of pilot sulfur TES units up to 1.5 MWh quantified charge/discharge rates, heat losses, round-trip efficiency and validated the system's capability to operate effectively under intermittent charging conditions. A techno-economic model, informed by sulfur TES performance model validated using pilot test data, showed that hybrid solar+sulfur TES+NG boiler systems are economically competitive with incumbent natural gas boilers for multiple locations in the southwest US. In summary, this project established molten sulfur TES as a technically viable pathway to improve economic competitiveness of American manufacturing by lowering the cost of solar industrial process heat.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Driving Economics and Reducing Risks: The Business Case for Security-by-Design in Nuclear Power

This report provides an analysis of the financial, operational, and strategic advantages of incorporating Security-by-Design (SeBD) early in the lifecycle of nuclear power plant projects. By framing security as a foundational design element rather than a late-stage add-on, owners, vendors, and operators can reduce budget overruns, strengthen regulatory compliance, and increase revenue opportunities. The report details key lifecycle phases, highlighting the strategic imperative for organizations (including project developers, investors, vendors, and regulators) to adopt SeBD. Drawing on industry estimates, real-world case studies, and comparative cost analyses, the findings underscore that even a modest upfront investment in SeBD can yield substantial long-term returns by preventing costly retrofit activities, minimizing regulatory delays, and positioning nuclear vendors for the ability to adapt in the evolving security market. By avoiding excessive retrofit expenses and positioning security as a built-in feature rather than an afterthought, nuclear projects can protect their financial performance, enhance public trust, and secure a competitive edge in an increasingly complex global energy market. The authors advocate for SeBD’s strategic implementation, supported by established quality management methodologies, thereby promoting continuous improvement and defect avoidance. Ultimately, early SeBD integration represents a strategic investment, yielding significant returns by preventing costly retrofits and positioning nuclear projects for enhanced competitiveness and public trust.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

JUSTIFI: Software for Improving Performance Objectives via Energy Efficiency

With growing energy supply concerns and rising costs, energy efficiency is a critical component of industrial energy resilience and competitiveness by directly reducing energy operating costs. Energy efficiency projects in manufacturing also yield valuable benefits to other key metrics, such as improved quality, reduced maintenance costs, improved safety, decreased pollution, and enhanced productivity. However, it is difficult to receive approval for energy efficiency projects, so implementation rates are low, even when meeting capital project payback period criteria. The inclusion and quantification of non-energy benefits (NEBs) in the decision-making process for energy efficiency projects can improve the overall financial payback period while demonstrating a positive impact on the firm's key performance metrics and business strategy. Despite their significant financial and strategic value, NEBs are rarely factored into decision-making due to lack of tools to effectively identify and quantify them. Therefore, a comprehensive and integrative approach is needed for the rapidly evolving energy landscape. To address these challenges, through funding from U.S. Department of Energy, our new assessment methodology integrates common continuous improvement six sigma concepts, such as the DMAIC process, and a protocol of guiding questions, into energy efficiency assessments to identify NEBs. We have also developed open-source software, JUSTIFI, to guide users through this process, data collection, and quantification. It is designed to be used concurrently with DOE energy system analysis software suite, MEASUR. Our methodology and tools inform energy assessors, firm engineering, decision makers, and workforce seeking to increase energy resilience and to maximize benefits aligned with performance metrics.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

JUSTIFI: Software for Improving Performance Objectives via Energy Efficiency

With growing energy supply concerns and rising costs, energy efficiency is a critical component of industrial energy resilience and competitiveness by directly reducing energy operating costs. Energy efficiency projects in manufacturing also yield valuable benefits to other key metrics, such as improved quality, reduced maintenance costs, improved safety, decreased pollution, and enhanced productivity. However, it is difficult to receive approval for energy efficiency projects, so implementation rates are low, even when meeting capital project payback period criteria. The inclusion and quantification of non-energy benefits (NEBs) in the decision-making process for energy efficiency projects can improve the overall financial payback period while demonstrating a positive impact on the firm's key performance metrics and business strategy. Despite their significant financial and strategic value, NEBs are rarely factored into decision-making due to lack of tools to effectively identify and quantify them. Therefore, a comprehensive and integrative approach is needed for the rapidly evolving energy landscape. To address these challenges, through funding from U.S. Department of Energy, our new assessment methodology integrates common continuous improvement six sigma concepts, such as the DMAIC process, and a protocol of guiding questions, into energy efficiency assessments to identify NEBs. We have also developed open-source software, JUSTIFI, to guide users through this process, data collection, and quantification. It is designed to be used concurrently with DOE energy system analysis software suite, MEASUR. Our methodology and tools inform energy assessors, firm engineering, decision makers, and workforce seeking to increase energy resilience and to maximize benefits aligned with performance metrics.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Field Validation of Thermoelectric Generation System at Holcim Cement Plant in Alpena, Michigan

Executive Summary Project Background The Industrial Technology Validation (ITV) program aims to identify and demonstrate the performance of new, emerging, and underutilized energy-saving technologies in the industrial sector to help inform decisions to help accelerate their commercialization and deployment, as well as to help make industries more competitive. This ITV demonstration evaluated a thermoelectric generation (TEG) technology at a cement plant, aiming to reduce energy demand in the cement industry. A median cement plant consumes 5.73 million British thermal units per ton of clinker production (resulting in 0.838 metric tons of carbon dioxide [CO₂] emissions per ton of clinker) (Boyd and Zhang 2011, EPA 2021), equivalent to approximately 6.9 trillion British thermal units (TBtu) per year in energy consumption at a cement plant producing 3,300 tons of clinker per day.¹ Collaborating with Holcim, Advanced Thermovoltaic Systems (ATS) developed and deployed a pilot-scale thermoelectric power system to efficiently capture and convert waste heat to electricity. The system leverages the Seebeck effect to convert temperature differences on two sides of semiconductor cartridges into electrical power (ScienceDirect, n.d.). This generation is realized with minimal moving parts compared to existing waste-heat-to-generation solutions and allows capture from heat sources with temperatures as low as 150°C. This project aimed to validate a scalable solution applicable for capturing medium-temperature waste heat, including ambient losses from other high-temperature processes, and high-temperature sources less suitable for other waste-heat-to-power solutions. By recovering this otherwise wasted heat, this project intends to validate improvements to overall process efficiency through reduction in purchased electricity, thereby reducing operational costs while enhancing resiliency and competitiveness. Description and Scope This study evaluated the performance of a TEG system from ATS as a solution to convert waste heat into useful power at a Holcim cement plant in Alpena, Michigan. This plant is a fully integrated cement plant that has been operating since 1907. The facility operates continuously (24/7/365) with approximately 250 employees and five long dry kilns, yielding a total production capacity of 7,852 tons of cement per day (EPA 2023). Currently, the Alpena plant uses waste heat boilers to convert waste heat from the exhaust of each kiln into steam, which drives steam turbine generators. The ATS TEG is being evaluated for its potential to supplement the steam turbines by capturing the remaining lower grade heat. This technology is also being considered for other Holcim plants where steam turbines are not a viable option. ATS installed a pilot-scale TEG unit with an array of 582 individual thermoelectric semiconductor cartridges, of which 573 were operational. The cartridges are sandwiched between 48 hot plates and 49 cold plates. Each cartridge is designed to generate 20 watts (W) of gross power at a hot-side temperature of 240°C and cold-side temperature of 20°C. As such, the total gross generation capacity of the installed system is 11.5 kilowatts (kW) at design conditions. The system configuration for the evaluation was designed to prioritize convenience of installation and minimize disruption to production at the site, while ensuring that the heat required can be obtained for evaluating the TEG system at various operational conditions. To accomplish this, a portion of the steam supplied to Alpena’s steam turbine generation system was diverted to be used as the heat source for the TEG system, while water was supplied to the cold side of the system from nearby Lake Huron. This configuration was designed for the evaluation of the pilot-scale system to assess the performance at different conditions. A commercial-scale system will likely vary from the pilot system depending on typical configurations, including both scale and application. Future commercial applications of the ATS system would involve integrating the system into the exhaust from kiln preheaters, clinker coolers, or radiant heat capture from kiln shells for the heat source. For the cold source, a range of cooling solutions can be considered, including a mechanical cooling system, depending on the location and the application. To increase the generation capacity for commercial applications, the technology provider is working toward developing a commercial-scale TEG system, which would combine multiple TEG units (each similar in design to the pilot system) together. The scope of this evaluation includes the pilot-scale TEG system and all impacted equipment including pumps, controllers, and power handling equipment. Study Objectives The evaluation's goal was to assess the potential of the ATS TEG system to generate useful electrical power by capturing waste heat from cement production kilns. The objectives of this study are to evaluate and verify the following claims made by ATS regarding the pilot-scale system installed at the Holcim Alpena plant. The following design parameters and claims are also outlined in Table ES- 1 and Table ES- 2: • Gross Power: The thermoelectric system converts heat into power to create gross power, the total measured power generated by the system. The 573 active cartridge pilot-scale system is expected to generate 11.5 kW of gross power at the designed hot-side temperature of 240°C and cold-side temperature of 20°C. Power production is dependent on the temperature difference between the heat source (ultimately from the waste heat) and cold temperature supply source. • Net Power: The net power is the total usable power provided to the site by the TEG system after deducting parasitic power loads from the gross generated power. Supplementary equipment is required to operate the TEG system including pumps, controllers, and, in certain anticipated applications, mechanical cooling, which introduce parasitic loads to system operation. After deducting the parasitic loads from the gross power generation, ATS anticipates achieving a net power generation of 7.5 kW from the pilot-scale system. • Thermal Efficiency: The thermal efficiency is the percent of the total heat transferred to the TEG system that is converted to gross power. Historically, TEGs have a thermal efficiency of 2%–5% (DOE 2008). Prior industrial-scale TEG systems, such as the E1 TEG offered by Alphabet Energy, operated at an efficiency of 2.5% (Lamonica, 2014). ATS anticipates achieving an average efficiency of 4.8% or higher in converting heat energy to usable electricity. • Cartridge Performance: The TEG system comprises 573 active individual semiconductor cartridges, each of which generates a portion of the total power. Cartridge optimization and selection is an important design consideration for potential future TEG system design performance. Therefore, understanding the distribution of gross power and efficiency within the pilot system is vital to understanding what is achievable. At a design hot-side temperature of 240°C and cold-side temperature of 20°C, ATS anticipates a cartridge performance of 20 W of gross power per cartridge at an efficiency of 4.8% per cartridge. In addition to evaluating the claimed performance of the TEG pilot-scale unit, the study estimated the potential annual impacts of a scaled-up commercial system used to capture kiln waste heat over annual operations. The evaluation estimated the gross and net annual electric generation achievable by capturing heat from the two proposed tap-in points: the kiln exhaust and the clinker cooler exhaust; see Section 2.1 for details. Two use cases were examined: • Holcim Alpena: The Holcim Alpena site consists of long dry kilns with superheater boilers, which differs from the rest of Holcim’s cement plant portfolio and results in lower waste heat temperatures. The study estimates gross and net annual generation using the superheater boiler exhaust and clinker cooler exhaust, based on 2023 operational data. • Typical Installation: Common cement plants have preheater kilns with higher exhaust temperatures than Holcim Alpena across a range of production rates. The study estimates gross and net annual generation using the preheater exhaust and clinker cooler exhaust, with a sensitivity analysis to account for the typical range of preheater exhaust temperatures, clinker cooler exhaust temperatures, and clinker production rates. Methodology The evaluation methodology followed a measurement and verification (M&V) strategy based on the International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol Option B through comprehensive measurements and analyses of the affected systems. Evaluation data was collected from March 9 to March 11, 2024, the test period of the pilot TEG system. During the test period, in coordination with the ITV team, the ATS team adjusted system operations to capture the range of variability expected for each of the variables pertinent to performance of the system. The methodology consisted of two parts: evaluating the performance of the pilot unit's TEG system and estimating the annual TEG impact in terms of gross and net power based on a given waste heat profile. First, the evaluation of the thermoelectric generation performance of the pilot unit relative to the claims was performed by analyzing the collected test data. Gross power of the pilot TEG system was directly measured. Net power was determined by deducting the measured parasitic power from the gross power. The gross power generation was compared to heat transferred to the system by the working fluid (which was heated by steam generated from the kiln waste heat) to calculate the thermal efficiency achieved by the system. Performance of individual semiconductor cartridges within the pilot array was also assessed in terms of measured gross cartridge power and calculated cartridge thermal efficiency. The second part of the evaluation estimated the annual TEG impacts in terms of gross power and net power (calculated from the difference between gross power and parasitic power). This analysis comprised development of mathematical regression models for gross power and parasitic power, with assessment of each model’s goodness-of-fit characteristics to ensure satisfaction of statistical requirements. The models predicted the gross power generation, the parasitic load based on the temperature difference between the hot working fluid and the cold-side fluid (cold water from Lake Huron) entering the system, the volumetric flow rate of the cold-side fluid at the inlet, and the volumetric flow rate of the hot working fluid at the inlet. The annual impact analysis considered a theoretical commercial-scale system sized to capture the available waste heat at a cement plant, consisting of linked pilot-scale units that receive heat from a theoretical gas-to-working-fluid heat exchanger. To estimate annual impacts at the Alpena plant, the gross power and parasitic power regression models were applied to the arrays in the theoretical commercial-scale system. The heat supplied to the unit was calculated based on the kiln run time, annual production, kiln exhaust waste heat, and clinker cooler waste heat derived from 2023 Holcim Alpena kiln operational data. Net power impacts were calculated by deducting the resulting parasitic power from the estimated gross power. Inputs for the model were generated from a combination of hourly data, assumed design considerations for TEG system scale-up from the pilot-scale unit, and assumptions regarding TEG system operations. This analysis was then used as the basis for estimating annual impacts of typical TEG installation at cement plants, by applying sensitivity analyses to key kiln operational characteristics including kiln preheater exhaust temperatures, cooler clinker exhaust temperatures, and plant daily production rates across a range of expected values. Project Results/Findings Table ES- 2 and Table ES- 2 provide a summary of the operating conditions and evaluation results compared to the stated claims from the technology provider. Key takeaways include: • Gross Power: The peak gross power achieved during the testing period was 10.0 kW, compared to the 11.5 kW expected for 573 active cartridges. The claimed gross power was associated with a target hot side of 240°C; however, the system only received a maximum hot-side mean plate temperature of 212°C during the testing period. • Net Power: The pilot-scale unit exceeded the claims for net power, achieving a peak of 7.7 kW net compared to a claim of 7.5 kW. One factor contributing to the higher achieved net power is the relatively high water pressure available through Lake Huron. The pilot TEG system did not require cold-side pumps during the test, whereas most installations would. This reduced the parasitic loads on the system, ultimately contributing to higher net power relative to the gross power. • Thermal Efficiency: The pilot-scale unit outperformed the claimed efficiency, achieving a peak system efficiency of 5.0% thermal efficiency compared to the stated 4.8%. • Cartridge Performance: To compare cartridge performance against claims, the study focused on the third day of testing, which aimed for conditions closest to the design specifications, with a hot side of 240°C and cold-side exit temperature of 6.4°–30°C. On this day, the mean gross power observed in the cartridges within the TEG array was 18.1 W/cartridge, and the peak performance was 34.7 W/cartridge. The estimated mean cartridge efficiency was 5.2%, and the estimated efficiency at peak gross cartridge power was 10%. The regression models developed for gross power generation and parasitic loads were used to estimate the generation impact for given heat input to the TEG from the working fluid (captured from the waste heat) and from the cold loop (Lake Huron) on an hourly basis for a year of operation. Based on this analysis, installation of a commercial-scale TEG system at the Holcim cement plant in Alpena, Michigan, with a waste heat exchanger of 0.85 effectiveness, would generate up to 391 kW of net power, translating to between 920,000 and 1,800,000 kilowatt-hours (kWh) in net electricity per year. Based on typical grid emissions for Alpena, this would avoid estimated net emissions by 752 metric tons of CO₂ annually.² The sensitivity analysis estimated that typical TEG system installations at cement plants could generate an average of 56–1,040 kW of net power, or between 488,000 and 9,110,000 kWh of net energy. This generation potential is most significantly affected by plant production rates and also influenced by preheater and clinker cooler exhaust temperatures. Applying the national average emission rate, typical commercial-scale installations at Holcim plants are projected to avoid between 182 and 3,401 metric tons of CO₂ annually per site. Table ES- 3 shows a summary of the estimated annual impacts.³ While parasitic loads are significant and vary by application, this analysis assumed the use of heating loop pumps and access to Lake Huron as a cold sink. This setup assumed no need for cooling loop pumps due to the available water pressure at the test site. Applications that require cooling towers or additional equipment are likely to experience higher parasitic loads. Therefore, the study’s estimates are most applicable to scenarios with similar parasitic load configurations—namely, access to a high-pressure cold sink. Applicability to other locations may be limited, as differing conditions could necessitate additional pumps and cooling systems, potentially impacting performance significantly.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Synergistic Thermo-Microbial-Electrochemical (T-MEC) Approach for Drop-In Fuel Production from Wet Waste

This project successfully developed and demonstrated the synergistic thermo-microbial-electrochemical (T-MEC) process, converting food waste into sustainable biofuels while achieving self-sustaining wastewater treatment and hydrogen production. By integrating hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) and microbial electrolysis cells (MECs), the project advanced waste-to-fuel technology and expanded the understanding of sustainable waste valorization. It established a scalable framework for achieving high carbon efficiency, effective pollutant removal, and energy recovery, showcasing the potential of combining biological, thermal, and electrochemical systems to optimize resource recovery and reduce environmental impacts. The project demonstrated the technical effectiveness of the T-MEC process, achieving over 50% improvement in carbon efficiency and reducing waste processing costs by more than 25% compared to anaerobic digestion (AD). The HTL pilot reactor processed food waste at 90 kg/h, producing up to 200 L/day of biocrude oil with high conversion efficiency. A critical desalting step in pretreatment prevented catalyst fouling, enabling efficient hydrotreating with 100% deoxygenation and denitrogenation and sulfur reduction to <15 ppm. This positioned the kerosene fraction as a strong candidate for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). The MECs achieved rapid startup, 86.4% COD removal, and hydrogen production rates of 1.8 L H 2 /L cat /day, among the highest recorded for pilot-scale systems. The integrated process achieved 65% carbon efficiency to biocrude and 58% to finished fuels, outperforming AD's 41% and 33% efficiencies for biogas and natural gas vehicle fuels. System analysis highlighted economic potential, with minimum fuel selling prices (MFSP) decreasing from $\$$25/GGE at 5 tpd to $\$$10/GGE at 500 tpd due to economies of scale. Future work will focus on reducing MEC material and membrane costs, enhancing performance through higher current densities, and creating tailored operational strategies for diverse feedstocks. Optimization of the integrated system will improve scalability and feasibility, positioning the T-MEC process as a competitive solution for converting wet waste into sustainable fuels and clean water. Beyond its technical and economic achievements, the project offers significant public benefits. The T-MEC process provides a sustainable alternative to landfilling and incineration, reducing greenhouse gas emissions and conserving resources. Converting waste into SAF and renewable fuels supports decarbonization in the transportation sector, advancing energy independence and reducing reliance on fossil fuels. Additionally, the process minimizes environmental pollutants, transforming them into valuable products like hydrogen and fuels, contributing to a cleaner and more sustainable future.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

S&TR September 2025: Computing Grand Challenge Turns 20

Livermore’s Computing Grand Challenge Program enters its 20th year with more unclassified high-performance computing (HPC) power than ever before. This unique, peer-reviewed competition awards HPC allocations on top supercomputers to multidisciplinary teams with high-impact projects. The Grand Challenge encourages researchers to innovate, pushes scientific discovery to new heights, improves the Laboratory’s HPC capabilities, and extends HPC accessibility to collaborators. Awardees must adapt to successive generations of HPC hardware and learn to run simulations at scale. The feature article spotlights three Grand Challenge teams whose research broke new ground in key scientific pursuits—the essence of dark matter, explosion-generated seismic waves, and protein interactions linked to cancer—while underscoring the importance of academic partnerships and considering the program’s future.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Charting the Path to Electrification: Analyzing the Economic and Technological Potential of Advanced Vehicle Powertrains

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Vehicle Technologies Office (DOE-VTO) is driving advancements in highway transportation by targeting energy efficiency, environmental sustainability, and cost reductions. This study investigates the fuel economy potential and cost implications of advanced powertrain technologies using comprehensive system simulations. Leveraging tools such as Autonomie and TechScape, developed by Argonne National Laboratory, this study evaluates multiple timeframes (2023–2050) and powertrain types, including conventional internal combustion engines, hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), and battery electric vehicles (BEVs). Simulations conducted across standard regulatory driving cycles provide detailed insights into fuel economy improvements, cost trajectories, and total cost of ownership. The findings highlight key innovations in battery energy density, lightweighting, and powertrain optimization, demonstrating the growing viability of BEVs and their projected economic competitiveness with conventional vehicles by 2050. This work delivers actionable insights for policymakers and industry stakeholders, underscoring the transformative potential of vehicle electrification in achieving sustainable transportation goals.

Islam, Ehsan Sabri (ORCID:0000000200220180)↗

Leveraging High-resolution Molecular Composition of Soil Organic Matter to Enhance Carbon Cycling Modeling

Soils store more carbon than the atmosphere and vegetation combined, yet Earth system models still struggle to predict how this vast reservoir will respond to environmental change. A central limitation is that most soil biogeochemical models represent organic matter using bulk conceptual pools or chemically homogeneous fractions, preventing direct use of rapidly expanding molecular-scale datasets. Here we develop and test a new soil decomposition framework that explicitly integrates high-resolution information on organic matter composition. First, we construct a molecularly informed litter decomposition module in which plant inputs are partitioned into five functional compound classes—carbohydrates, proteins, lignin-like aromatics, lipids, and carbonyls—using a molecular mixing model calibrated to solid-state 13 C Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) spectra. Class-specific kinetics, lignin-dependent physical protection, and substrate-driven microbial carbon use efficiency allow the module to capture metabolic tradeoffs associated with enzyme production and nutrient limitation. We then embed this litter module within a microbially explicit whole-soil model that tracks the transformation of these compound classes through particulate organic matter, dissolved organic matter, mineral-associated organic matter, and microbial biomass. High-resolution Fourier Transform Ion Cyclotron Resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR-MS) data are used to link internal pools to measurable soil organic matter fractions and to constrain key process parameters. Applications at soil-core and ecosystem scales demonstrate that the new model reproduces observed soil respiration dynamics while providing mechanistic attribution of CO 2 fluxes to specific chemical classes and pools. Compared to existing frameworks such as the Community Land Model soil biogeochemistry module and the Millennial model, our approach maintains competitive predictive skill while substantially improving interpretability and opportunities for data–model integration. This work illustrates a viable pathway for leveraging molecular-scale observations to reduce structural uncertainty in soil carbon–climate feedback projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sustainable Ethylene via Chemical Looping – Oxidative Dehydrogenation

This Phase I final report evaluates chemical looping–oxidative dehydrogenation as a lower-energy and cost-competitive alternative to conventional ethane steam cracking for ethylene production. The project combined catalyst development and experimental testing with process modeling, techno-economic analysis, and life-cycle assessment. Results indicate that the proposed process could improve olefin production, reduce energy use, and lower production costs, particularly when integrated with carbon capture and renewable electricity. The report also identifies remaining technical, environmental, and safety considerations and presents a technology maturation plan focused on longer-term catalyst evaluation and advancement toward pilot-scale demonstration.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Scalable and compact magnetocaloric heat pump technology

Magnetocaloric heat pumping (MCHP) promises to be more efficient than traditional vapor compression while also eliminating the deleterious effects of gaseous refrigerants. While MCHP devices have shown the temperature spans and efficiencies needed for different heating and cooling applications, they struggle to become commercially viable due to their large size and mass, and resultant high cost. This paper evaluates a baseline MCHP device and explores methods to boost its system power density (SPD). The key components of the baseline system are the gadolinium packed-particle bed active magnetic regenerator (AMR) and a magnetic source composed of permanent magnets and high permeability magnetic steel. To enhance the SPD, the paper evaluates maximizing the AMR volume, opting for first-order magnetocaloric materials, optimizing the magnet and AMR geometry, and reducing the size of magnets and magnetic steel parts. At larger thermal powers, increasing the AMR diameter and the number of magnetic poles were evaluated. Using finite element models, solid models, and estimates of magnetocaloric material performance, thermal powers ranging from 37 W to 44 kW at a nominal 10 K temperature span were projected, and SPD was estimated to improve from 6 W/kg to 81 W/kg. Neglecting end effects, an upper limit of 114 W/g is estimated. Compared to SPD of off-the-shelf compressors with similar environment temperatures, MCHP power density using gadolinium is competitive up to roughly 200 W of cooling power. This is extended to 1 kW when using LaFeSi alloys and up to 3 kW in the limiting case. In conclusion, these results indicate that the performance and mass of MCHP can match that of compressors, which is a critical step toward cost-competitive magnetocaloric technology.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Energy Efficiency Assistance for Galena Alaska

The City of Galena sits along the north bank of the Yukon River with no road access. Temperatures regularly reach negative 20°F in the winter and sunlight extends for up to 21 hours a day in the summer. Galena’s 400 residents, including members of the Koyukuk Athabascan culture, primarily use fuel oil and locally forested wood for heating and electricity generation. Because these resources are costly to obtain, local households have a high energy burden, spending 7% of their annual income on energy (averaging $4,000 per year). To reduce this burden, the City of Galena joined the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Remote Alaska Community Energy Efficiency (RACEE) Competition, where they received financial and technical assistance to implement energy savings solutions across their community, including building envelope improvements, solar panels, and LED lighting. Additionally, Galena installed new energy monitoring equipment to continue measuring the impacts of this work beyond the RACEE project.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Overcoming Resilience Challenges on the Outer Banks of North Carolina

In 2021, the Town of Nags Head, located in the Outer Banks region of North Carolina, was among the first cohort of coastal and island communities to participate in the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Transitions Initiative Partnership Project (ETIPP), which offers technical assistance and cash awards to competitively selected coastal, remote, and island communities seeking to transform their energy systems and increase their energy resilience. As a barrier island separated from mainland North Carolina, Nags Head experiences impacts from extreme weather events, including power outages, especially during hurricane season. To address challenges, the Nags Head ETIPP team sought to improve the town's disaster resilience by ensuring that critical facilities can remain powered during and after extreme events. With support from experts at Sandia National Laboratories, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, and the Coastal Studies Institute, the community team identified the following goals for its participation in ETIPP: 1. Identify and prioritize critical facilities that, when powered during disruptions, support the town's resilience. 2. Analyze the potential for on-site solar photovoltaic (PV) and storage systems at 2-4 prioritized critical facilities owned and/or operated by the town. 3. Analyze the potential for interconnecting solar PV and storage systems at a cluster of public and privately owned facilities into a resilient microgrid. 4. Explore finance options and utility interconnection requirements and compensation mechanisms. 5. Summarize outcomes and next steps for town leadership.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Kansas City, Missouri, Streetlight Electric Vehicle Charging: Strategies and challenges for site selection of streetlight electric vehicle infrastructure in Kansas City, Missouri (Final Report)

Public streetlight charging, whether on streets in central business districts or residential areas, provides easy charging access for apartment residents and homeowners alike. While most electric vehicle (EV) drivers charge at home, they do so in garages or on driveways they own. For renters and residents of multifamily housing (MFH), however, this may not be an option. EVs have a lower cost of ownership compared to conventional vehicles, and a used EV may be an affordable option for a lower-income household. But without easy access to charging, even a low-cost used EV may not be an option for a prospective buyer. An affordable curbside charging network has the potential to expand EV adoption into neighborhoods that have to date seen minimal interest and uptake of the technology and associated charging infrastructure. Streetlight charging networks can provide an economical, scalable, and effective approach to providing equitable and convenient charging. Metropolitan Energy Center (MEC) is dedicated to the mission of creating resource efficiency, environmental health, and economic vitality in the Kansas City region and beyond. Since 1983, MEC has provided resources, outreach, and training to make alternative fuels and energy efficiency commonplace. MEC led a streetlight charging pilot project that installed limited EV charging infrastructure on the streetlight system in Kansas City, Missouri, to demonstrate and test the benefits of curbside charging for EVs at existing on-street parking locations. The project aimed to cost-effectively expand the charging network in Kansas City to support residential charging and provide infrastructure in one or more charging deserts throughout the city. This pilot evaluates the impact and overall success of streetlight charging based on community feedback, utilization of charging infrastructure, technical feasibility, and cost. The project has pursued a data- and community-driven site selection process designed to identify sites with high demand and high opportunity for EV charging. This project was funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and awarded to MEC through a competitive proposal process. The novelty and complexity of this project required an organization that could facilitate collaboration across levels of government, community members, and industry partners. For the past 25 years, through Kansas City Regional Clean Cities, MEC has worked with numerous public and private fleets on a variety of projects to improve the environmental performance and efficiency of the regional vehicle fleet. To advance affordable, efficient, and clean transportation efforts, DOE Clean Cities and Communities coalitions create local networks of public and private sector stakeholders and engage communities. Rooted within their local communities, the coalitions serve as experts and ambassadors, bringing to bear the collective knowledge, experience, and practical know-how of the entire network from within DOE, its national laboratories, and diverse stakeholders in the field. MEC and its project partners made in-kind contributions to leverage federal dollars for the benefit of the Kansas City community. Findings from this project will help determine the best applications for streetlight charging technologies to maximize funding impact and serve community needs. The team evaluated locations based on expected charging demand, technical feasibility, safety considerations, and enhanced charging network siting needs. Throughout the project, the team gathered feedback and evaluated ways to make public charging for EVs available to all community members. The insights will help Kansas City and other communities streamline future efforts to support EV drivers through public charging in the city right-of-way. Furthermore, this project will inform citywide guidance for future installations. MEC is committed to a transparent and publicly accessible approach that encourages the collaborative evaluation of streetlight charging. The project has engaged the community to proactively identify and evaluate the benefits and impacts of streetlight charging. It was a priority for the project to ensure the benefits of this pilot are distributed equitably to all members of the Kansas City community and that new charging opportunities and associated resources are available in diverse neighborhoods across the city. The charging infrastructure supports an affordable curbside charging network that will enable more drivers to choose EVs and provide easy charging access for all community members interested in driving an EV. The community feedback received through this project informed future resources and opportunities to make EVs more accessible to all members of the Kansas City community. MEC worked with several community partners on this project, including Missouri University of Science and Technology (MST), Pennsylvania State University (Penn State), the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL); the city of Kansas City, Missouri; Evergy; Black and McDonald (B&M); LilyPad EV; EVNoire; and Westside Housing Organization (WHO). Project partners contributed to the cost match required for DOE grants through capital expenditures, personnel, and other in-kind contributions. Detailed descriptions of project team organizations can be found in Appendix A. Project Partners. Analysts at NREL and MST/PennState developed site maps based on demand and equity considerations. MEC conducted outreach to community members to garner input on project design and site selection, and received approval from the Missouri Public Service Commission (PSC) for Evergy’s EV charging station ownership. MEC worked with all partners to gather additional siting criteria and developed a site selection evaluation checklist, and partners conducted site visits to proposed installation sites. Next, B&M, Evergy, and the city executed all site agreements, conducted site-specific engineering design, acquired associated permits, and issued notices to proceed site by site or in small batches. Finally, from January to April 2023, the project team installed 23 EV charging stations built on Kansas City’s streetlight system in six council districts. Evergy will own, operate, and monitor the stations for 10 years, sharing charging data with MEC for at least 1 year.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Ion-Pair Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cells for Heavy-duty Transportation

The purpose of this project is to build a fuel cell prototype that demonstrates high temperature proton exchange membrane fuel cell technology (HT PEMFC) commercial readiness. It advances from a technology baseline established in a prior CRADA in which these same Parties collaborated during the years 2020-2024. These efforts are aligned with the intentions of the DOE Hydrogen Fuel Cell Technology Office (HFTO) L’Innovator Pilot Program. Participant observes that its US-based competitive advantage may be improved by further optimizing Laboratory inventions. This CRADA is intended to further improve National Laboratory compositions and to develop commercial HT PEMFC membrane electrode assemblies (MEAs) that perform over a range of operating temperatures and relative humidity, that generate power from both low grade and pure hydrogen, and that are resistant to air impurities. Participant’s goal is to advance the commercial competitiveness of National Laboratory technologies in fuel cell products for heavy-duty truck integrators, for stationary power generation, marine applications, and for emerging interest from commercial aviation. The Parties will collaborate on producing a HT PEMFC MEA that integrates LANL ion pair technology and Brookhaven catalyst technology. The Laboratories plan to research and develop compositions for testing and evaluation. The participant will manufacture multiple MEAs based on the Laboratory compositions and will enable selected customers to validate performance characteristics. The Laboratories will convey to Participant the methods of making the National Laboratory compositions such that Participant may reproduce and then scale Laboratory methods into commercial production. Throughout the project, the Laboratories and Participant will iteratively test and optimize the compositions of materials of the MEAs, intending to optimize characteristics such as power density and lifecycle durability. Participant’s intended customers include fuel cells for large trucks, aviation, power back up, marine, and portable power.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Benefits and Challenges of California Offshore Wind Electricity: An Updated Assessment

Offshore wind (OSW) technology has recently been included in California’s plans to achieve 100% carbon-free electricity by 2045. As an emerging technology, many features of OSW are changing more rapidly than established renewable options and are shaped by local circumstances in unique ways that limit transferrable experiences globally. This paper fills a gap in the literature by providing an updated technological assessment of OSW in California to determine its viability and competitiveness in the state’s electricity generation mix to achieve its near-term energy and environmental goals. Through a critical synthesis and extrapolation of technical, social, and economic analyses, we identify several major improvements in its potential. First, we note that while estimates of OSW’s costs per MWh of installed capacity have generally documented and projected a long-term decline, recent technical, microeconomic, and macroeconomic factors have caused significant backsliding of this momentum. Second, we project that the potential dollar value benefits of OSW’s greenhouse gas reduction capabilities have increased by one to two orders of magnitude, primarily due to major upward revisions of the social cost of carbon. Several co-benefits, including enhanced reliability, economic growth, and environmental justice, look to be increasingly promising due to a combination of technological advances and policy initiatives. Despite these advancements, OSW continues to face several engineering and broader challenges. We assess the current status of these challenges, as well as current and future strategies to address them. We conclude that OSW is now overall an even more attractive electricity-generating option than at the beginning of this decade.

Rose, Adam (ORCID:0000000333477684)↗