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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

A frequentist approach to computer model calibration

The paper considers the computer model calibration problem and provides a general frequentist solution. Under the framework proposed, the data model is semiparametric with a non-parametric discrepancy function which accounts for any discrepancy between physical reality and the computer model. In an attempt to solve a fundamentally important (but often ignored) identifiability issue between the computer model parameters and the discrepancy function, the paper proposes a new and identifiable parameterization of the calibration problem. It also develops a two-step procedure for estimating all the relevant quantities under the new parameterization. This estimation procedure is shown to enjoy excellent rates of convergence and can be straightforwardly implemented with existing software. For uncertainty quantification, bootstrapping is adopted to construct confidence regions for the quantities of interest. As a result, the practical performance of the methodology is illustrated through simulation examples and an application to a computational fluid dynamics model.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2016

Computational Modeling of Micrometastatic Breast Cancer Radiation Dose Response

Purpose: Prophylactic cranial irradiation (PCI) involves giving radiation to the entire brain with the goals of reducing the incidence of brain metastasis and improving overall survival. Experimentally, we have demonstrated that PCI prevents brain metastases in a breast cancer mouse model. We developed a computational model to expand on and aid in the interpretation of our experimental results. Methods and Materials: MATLAB was used to develop a computational model of brain metastasis and PCI in mice. Model input parameters were optimized such that the model output would match the experimental number of metastases per mouse from the unirradiated group. An independent in vivo–limiting dilution experiment was performed to validate the model. The effect of whole brain irradiation at different measurement points after tumor cells were injected was evaluated in terms of the incidence, number of metastases, and tumor burden and was then compared with the corresponding experimental data. Results: In the optimized model, the correlation between the number of metastases per mouse and the experimental fits was >95. Our attempt to validate the model with a limiting dilution assay produced 99.9% correlation with respect to the incidence of metastases. The model accurately predicted the effect of whole-brain irradiation given 3 weeks after cell injection but substantially underestimated its effect when delivered 5 days after cell injection. The model further demonstrated that delaying whole-brain irradiation until the development of gross disease introduces a dose threshold that must be reached before a reduction in incidence can be realized. Conclusions: Our computational model of mouse brain metastasis and PCI correlated strongly with our experiments with unirradiated mice. The results further suggest that early treatment of subclinical disease is more effective than irradiating established disease.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2017

Predicting neutron damage using TEM with in situ ion irradiation and computer modeling

We have constructed a computer model of irradiation defect production closely coordinated with TEM and in situ ion irradiation of Molybdenum at 80 degrees C over a range of dose, dose rate and foil thickness. We have reexamined our previous ion irradiation data to assign appropriate error and uncertainty based on more recent work. The spatially dependent cascade cluster dynamics model is updated with recent Molecular Dynamics results for cascades in Mo. After a careful assignment of both ion and neutron irradiation dose values in dpa, TEM data are compared for both ion and neutron irradiated Mo from the same source material. Using the computer model of defect formation and evolution based on the in situ ion irradiation of thin foils, the defect microstructure, consisting of densities and sizes of dislocation loops, is predicted for neutron irradiation of bulk material at 80 degrees C and compared with experiment. Reasonable agreement between model prediction and experimental data demonstrates a promising direction in understanding and predicting neutron damage using a closely coordinated program of in situ ion irradiation experiment and computer simulation.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Overcoming the Challenges to Enhancing Experimental Plant Biology With Computational Modeling

The study of complex biological systems necessitates computational modeling approaches that are currently underutilized in plant biology. Many plant biologists have trouble identifying or adopting modeling methods to their research, particularly mechanistic mathematical modeling. Here we address challenges that limit the use of computational modeling methods, particularly mechanistic mathematical modeling. We divide computational modeling techniques into either pattern models (e.g., bioinformatics, machine learning, or morphology) or mechanistic mathematical models (e.g., biochemical reactions, biophysics, or population models), which both contribute to plant biology research at different scales to answer different research questions. We present arguments and recommendations for the increased adoption of modeling by plant biologists interested in incorporating more modeling into their research programs. As some researchers find math and quantitative methods to be an obstacle to modeling, we provide suggestions for easy-to-use tools for non-specialists and for collaboration with specialists. This may especially be the case for mechanistic mathematical modeling, and we spend some extra time discussing this. Through a more thorough appreciation and awareness of the power of different kinds of modeling in plant biology, we hope to facilitate interdisciplinary, transformative research.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Analyzing Stochastic Computer Models: A Review with Opportunities

In modern science, computer models are often used to understand complex phenomena and a thriving statistical community has grown around analyzing them. This review aims to bring a spotlight to the growing prevalence of stochastic computer models-providing a catalogue of statistical methods for practitioners, an introductory view for statisticians (whether familiar with deterministic computer models or not), and an emphasis on open questions of relevance to practitioners and statisticians. Gaussian process surrogate models take center stage in this review, and these, along with several extensions needed for stochastic settings, are explained. The basic issues of designing a stochastic computer experiment and calibrating a stochastic computer model are prominent in the discussion. Instructive examples, with data and code, are used to describe the implementation of, and results from, various methods.

agent based model↗
DOE OSTI2022

Computer Model Calibration with Time Series Data Using Deep Learning and Quantile Regression

Computer models play a key role in many scientific and engineering problems. One major source of uncertainty in computer model experiments is input parameter uncertainty. Computer model calibration is a formal statistical procedure to infer input parameters by combining information from model runs and observational data. The existing standard calibration framework suffers from inferential issues when the model output and observational data are high-dimensional dependent data, such as large time series, due to the difficulty in building an emulator and the nonidentifiability between effects from input parameters and data-model discrepancy. To overcome these challenges, we, in this work, propose a new calibration framework based on a deep neural network (DNN) with long short-term memory layers that directly emulates the inverse relationship between the model output and input parameters. Adopting the “learning with noise” idea, we train our DNN model to filter out the effects from data-model discrepancy on input parameter inference. We also formulate a new way to construct interval predictions for DNN using quantile regression to quantify the uncertainty in input parameter estimates. Through a simulation study and real data application with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model Hydrological modeling system (WRF-Hydro), we show our approach can yield accurate point estimates and well-calibrated interval estimates for input parameters.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparing Emulation Methods for Computer Models with High Dimensional Output

This Master’s Capstone project will present a comparison of statistical models for computer simulation studies. The four models included in this comparison study were chosen for both their proven and diverse methodologies. We will present a case study on hurricane flood data in the Delaware bay which highlights the strengths and weaknesses of each model when applied to a very large spatial field. As computers have gotten faster, we have become interested in modeling increasingly large spatial fields in both size and resolution. Statistical algorithms that are able to efficiently handle these fields have never been more important. We therefore find this comparison to be extremely topical.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Uncertainty Propagation Analysis of Computational Models in Laser Powder Bed Fusion Additive Manufacturing Using Polynomial Chaos Expansions

Computational models for simulating physical phenomena during laser-based powder bed fusion additive manufacturing (L-PBF AM) processes are critical for enhancing our understanding of these phenomena, enable process optimization, and accelerate qualification and certification of AM materials and parts. It is a well-known fact that such models typically involve multiple sources of uncertainty that originate from different sources such as model parameters uncertainty, or model/code inadequacy, among many others. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a broad field that focuses on characterizing such uncertainties in order to maximize the benefit of these models. Although UQ has been a center theme in computational models associated with diverse fields such as computational fluid dynamics and macro-economics, it has not yet been fully exploited with computational models for advanced manufacturing. The current study introduces one among the first efforts to conduct uncertainty propagation (UP) analysis in the context of L-PBF AM. More specifically, we present a generalized polynomial chaos expansions (gPCE) framework to assess the distributions of melt pool dimensions due to uncertainty in input model parameters. We develop the methodology and then employ it to validate model predictions, both through benchmarking them against Monte Carlo (MC) methods and against experimental data acquired from an experimental testbed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2015

Computer modeling of a compact isochronous cyclotron

The computer modeling methods of a compact isochronous cyclotron are described. The main stages of analysis of accelerator facilities systems are considered. The described methods are based on theoretical fundamentals of cyclotron physics and mention highlights of creation of the physical project of a compact cyclotron. The main attention is paid to the analysis of the beam dynamics, formation of a magnetic field, stability of the movement, and a realistic assessment of intensity of the generated bunch of particles. In the article, the stages of development of the accelerator computer model, analytical ways of assessment of the accelerator parameters, and the basic technique of the numerical analysis of dynamics of the particles are described.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Including frameworks of public health ethics in computational modelling of infectious disease interventions

Decisions on public health interventions to control infectious diseases are often informed by computational models. Interpreting the predicted outcomes of a public health decision requires not only high-quality modelling but also an ethical framework for assessing the benefits and harms associated with different options. The design and specification of ethical frameworks matured independently of computational modelling, so many values recognized as important for ethical decision-making are missing from computational models. We demonstrate a proof-of-concept approach to incorporate multiple public health values into the evaluation of a simple computational model for vaccination against a pathogen such as SARS-CoV-2. By examining a bounded space of alternative prioritizations of three values relevant to public health ethics (aggregate clinical burden, equity in clinical burden, equity in adverse effects from vaccination), we identify value trade-offs, where the outcomes of optimal strategies differ depending on the ethical framework. This work demonstrates an approach to incorporating diverse values into decision criteria used to evaluate outcomes of models of infectious disease interventions.

"Mathematical Biology"↗
DOE OSTI2021

Spatially distributed infection increases viral load in a computational model of SARS-CoV-2 lung infection

A key question in SARS-CoV-2 infection is why viral loads and patient outcomes vary dramatically across individuals. Because spatial-temporal dynamics of viral spread and immune response are challenging to study in vivo, we developed Spatial Immune Model of Coronavirus (SIMCoV), a scalable computational model that simulates hundreds of millions of lung cells, including respiratory epithelial cells and T cells. SIMCoV replicates viral growth dynamics observed in patients and shows how spatially dispersed infections can lead to increased viral loads. The model also shows how the timing and strength of the T cell response can affect viral persistence, oscillations, and control. By incorporating spatial interactions, SIMCoV provides a parsimonious explanation for the dramatically different viral load trajectories among patients by varying only the number of initial sites of infection and the magnitude and timing of the T cell immune response. When the branching airway structure of the lung is explicitly represented, we find that virus spreads faster than in a 2D layer of epithelial cells, but much more slowly than in an undifferentiated 3D grid or in a well-mixed differential equation model. These results illustrate how realistic, spatially explicit computational models can improve understanding of within-host dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Scaled Vecchia Approximation for Fast Computer-Model Emulation

Many scientific phenomena are studied using computer experiments consisting of multiple runs of a computer model while varying the input settings. Gaussian processes (GPs) are a popular tool for the analysis of computer experiments, enabling interpolation between input settings, but direct GP inference is computationally infeasible for large datasets. We adapt and extend a powerful class of GP methods from spatial statistics to enable the scalable analysis and emulation of large computer experiments. Specifically, we apply Vecchia’s ordered conditional approximation in a transformed input space, with each input scaled according to how strongly it relates to the computer-model response. The scaling is learned from the data by estimating parameters in the GP covariance function using Fisher scoring. Our methods are highly scalable, enabling estimation, joint prediction, and simulation in near-linear time in the number of model runs. In several numerical examples, our approach substantially outperformed existing methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

In-situ effect in cross-ply laminates under various loading conditions analyzed with hybrid macro/micro-scale computational models

In this article, multi-scale finite element analyses based on three-dimensional (3D) hybrid macro/micro-scale computational models subjected to various loading conditions are carried out to examine the in-situ effect imposed by the neighboring plies on the failure initiation and propagation of cross-ply laminates. A detailed comparative study on crack suppression mechanisms due to the effect of embedded laminar thickness and adjacent ply orientation is presented. Furthermore, we compare the results of in-situ transverse failure strain and strength between the computational models and analytical predictions. Good agreements are generally observed, indicating the constructed computational models are highly accurate to quantify the in-situ effect. Subsequently, empirical formulas for calculating the in-situ strengths as a function of embedded ply thickness and different ply angle between embedded and adjacent plies are developed, during which several material parameters are obtained using a reverse fitting method. Finally, a new set of failure criteria for σ 22 -τ 12 , σ 22 -τ 23 , and σ 11 -τ 12 accounting for the in-situ strengths are proposed to predict laminated composites failure under multi-axial stress states. This study demonstrates an effective and efficient computational technique towards the accurate prediction of the failure behaviors and strengths of cross-ply laminates by including the in-situ effects.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2015

Computational modeling of residual stress formation during the electron beam melting process for Inconel 718

Here, a computational modeling approach to simulate residual stress formation during the electron beam melting (EBM) process within the additive manufacturing (AM) technologies for Inconel 718 is presented in this paper. The EBM process has demonstrated a high potential to fabricate components with complex geometries, but the resulting components are influenced by the thermal cycles observed during the manufacturing process. When processing nickel based superalloys, very high temperatures (approx. 1000 °C) are observed in the powder bed, base plate, and build. These high temperatures, when combined with substrate adherence, can result in warping of the base plate and affect the final component by causing defects. It is important to have an understanding of the thermo-mechanical response of the entire system, that is, its mechanical behavior towards thermal loading occurring during the EBM process prior to manufacturing a component. Therefore, computational models to predict the response of the system during the EBM process will aid in eliminating the undesired process conditions, a priori, in order to fabricate the optimum component. Such a comprehensive computational modeling approach is demonstrated to analyze warping of the base plate, stress and plastic strain accumulation within the material, and thermal cycles in the system during different stages of the EBM process.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Generalized Bayesian MARS: Tools for Stochastic Computer Model Emulation

The multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS) approach of Friedman and its Bayesian counterpart are effective approaches for the emulation of computer models. The traditional assumption of Gaussian errors limits the usefulness of MARS, and many popular alternatives, when dealing with stochastic computer models. Here, we propose a generalized Bayesian MARS (GBMARS) framework which admits the broad class of generalized hyperbolic distributions as the induced likelihood function. This allows us to develop tools for the emulation of stochastic simulators which are parsimonious, scalable, and interpretable and require minimal tuning, while providing powerful predictive and uncertainty quantification capabilities. GBMARS is capable of robust regression with t distributions, quantile regression with asymmetric Laplace distributions, and a general form of “Normal-Wald” regression in which the shape of the error distribution and the structure of the mean function are learned simultaneously. We demonstrate the effectiveness of GBMARS on various stochastic computer models, and we show that it compares favorably to several popular alternatives.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2014

MO-G-17A-04: Internal Dosimetric Calculations for Pediatric Nuclear Imaging Applications, Using Monte Carlo Simulations and High-Resolution Pediatric Computational Models

Purpose: Our purpose is to evaluate the administered absorbed dose in pediatric, nuclear imaging studies. Monte Carlo simulations with the incorporation of pediatric computational models can serve as reference for the accurate determination of absorbed dose. The procedure of the calculated dosimetric factors is described, while a dataset of reference doses is created. Methods: Realistic simulations were executed using the GATE toolkit and a series of pediatric computational models, developed by the “IT'IS Foundation”. The series of the phantoms used in our work includes 6 models in the range of 5–14 years old (3 boys and 3 girls). Pre-processing techniques were applied to the images, to incorporate the phantoms in GATE simulations. The resolution of the phantoms was set to 2 mm3. The most important organ densities were simulated according to the GATE “Materials Database”. Several used radiopharmaceuticals in SPECT and PET applications are being tested, following the EANM pediatric dosage protocol. The biodistributions of the several isotopes used as activity maps in the simulations, were derived by the literature. Results: Initial results of absorbed dose per organ (mGy) are presented in a 5 years old girl from the whole body exposure to 99mTc - SestaMIBI, 30 minutes after administration. Heart, kidney, liver, ovary, pancreas and brain are the most critical organs, in which the S-factors are calculated. The statistical uncertainty in the simulation procedure was kept lower than 5%. The Sfactors for each target organ are calculated in Gy/(MBq*sec) with highest dose being absorbed in kidneys and pancreas (9.29*10{sup 10} and 0.15*10{sup 10} respectively). Conclusion: An approach for the accurate dosimetry on pediatric models is presented, creating a reference dosage dataset for several radionuclides in children computational models with the advantages of MC techniques. Our study is ongoing, extending our investigation to other reference models and evaluating the results with clinical estimated doses.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Comprehensive End-to-End Design of Novel High Energy Density Materials: II. Computational Modeling and Predictions

In this work, we have proposed a holistic approach to design novel energetic materials by bridging synthesis, experimental characterization, computational modeling, and validation. Multiscale computational modeling that combines first-principles calculations, analytical theory, and empirical statistical analysis served to further advance the proposed methodology. The established materials design guiding principles led to development of a set of new energetic molecules, PHE-1, PHE-2, and PHE-3, that represent improved variations of the heterocyclic energetics and are predicted to be superior to the existing conventional energetic materials. Molecular mechanisms of the enhanced performance and sensitivity of the proposed energetic materials as a function of their chemical composition and structure are discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Nested active learning for efficient model contextualization and parameterization: pathway to generating simulated populations using multi-scale computational models

There is increasing interest in the use of mechanism-based multi-scale computational models (such as agent-based models (ABMs)) to generate simulated clinical populations in order to discover and evaluate potential diagnostic and therapeutic modalities. The description of the environment in which a biomedical simulation operates (model context) and parameterization of internal model rules (model content) requires the optimization of a large number of free parameters. In this work, we utilize a nested active learning (AL) workflow to efficiently parameterize and contextualize an ABM of systemic inflammation used to examine sepsis. Contextual parameter space was examined using four parameters external to the model’s rule set. The model’s internal parameterization, which represents gene expression and associated cellular behaviors, was explored through the augmentation or inhibition of signaling pathways for 12 signaling mediators associated with inflammation and wound healing. We have implemented a nested AL approach in which the clinically relevant (CR) model environment space for a given internal model parameterization is mapped using a small Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The outer AL level workflow is a larger ANN that uses AL to efficiently regress the volume and centroid location of the CR space given by a single internal parameterization. We have reduced the number of simulations required to efficiently map the CR parameter space of this model by approximately 99%. In addition, we have shown that more complex models with a larger number of variables may expect further improvements in efficiency.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗