Search NASASearch

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Conditional distribution”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 37 records · Page 2

Swarm Intelligence Based Optimal Design of Local Volt/Var Control Function for Distributed Energy Resources

The increasing penetration of renewable based distributed energy resources (DERs) in distribution network (DN) leads to larger and more frequent voltage variation in distributions network (DN), thus posing challenges on voltage control. Real-time local voltage control method is a promising solution for the above issue. However, the local voltage control function needs to be customized and optimized according to real distribution system condition. In this paper, a swarm intelligence based Volt/Var control optimal design method (SO-VVC) is proposed to optimize the control function. Compared with existing approaches, the proposed method can not only represent the nonlinear behaviour of power flow but is also computation efficient. The performance of the proposed SO-VVC is demonstrated by case studies on a modified IEEE-123 bus system.

Zhang, Zhengfa [University of Tennessee, Knoxville

Polynomial Chaos Surrogate Construction for Random Fields with Parametric Uncertainty

Engineering and applied science rely on computational experiments to rigorously study physical systems. The mathematical models used to probe these systems are highly complex, and sampling-intensive studies often require prohibitively many simulations for acceptable accuracy. Surrogate models provide a means of circumventing the high computational expense of sampling such complex models. In particular, polynomial chaos expansions (PCEs) have been successfully used for uncertainty quantification studies of deterministic models where the dominant source of uncertainty is parametric. We discuss an extension to conventional PCE surrogate modeling to enable surrogate construction for stochastic computational models that have intrinsic noise in addition to parametric uncertainty. We develop a PCE surrogate on a joint space of intrinsic and parametric uncertainty, enabled by Rosenblatt transformations, which are evaluated via kernel density estimation of the associated conditional cumulative distributions. Furthermore, we extend the construction to random field data via the Karhunen–Loève expansion. We then take advantage of closed-form solutions for computing PCE Sobol indices to perform a global sensitivity analysis of the model which quantifies the intrinsic noise contribution to the overall model output variance. Additionally, the resulting joint PCE is generative in the sense that it allows generating random realizations at any input parameter setting that are statistically approximately equivalent to realizations from the underlying stochastic model. The method is demonstrated on a chemical catalysis example model and a synthetic example controlled by a parameter that enables a switch from unimodal to bimodal response distributions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Thermomechanical Modeling and Analysis of a High-Temperature Light Trapping Planar Cavity Receiver

Solar energy harnessed through concentrating solar power (CSP) systems offers a promising path to sustainable energy production, with the efficiency and longevity of these systems relying on key components like solar receivers. This study analyzes the thermomechanical behavior of an innovative enclosed light-trapping solar receiver optimized for particle heating applications. The receiver utilizes sheet metal alloys to form enclosed cavities that reflect and trap incoming solar flux, as well as enclosed channels that contain fluidized particle beds absorbing solar heat. Finite element analysis (FEA) is applied to predict the receiver's thermomechanical performance under extreme solar flux conditions. Temperature distributions from a thermal model simulating a multi-panel assembly at steady state are input into the FEA thermomechanical model for stress analysis. A key aspect of the analysis focuses on evaluating creep-fatigue damage, with a design target of achieving a 30- year service life. Various stress relief techniques are also proposed to extend the receiver's service life. The results highlight the significant impact of the particle-to-wall heat transfer coefficients (HTCs), ranging from 800 W/m2*K to 1400 W/m2*K. The 800 W/m2*K case shows a maximum von Mises stress of 164 MPa, while the 1400 W/m2*K case reduces it to 150 MPa. The creep life increases from 4,000 hrs in the 800 W/m2*K case to over 100,000 hrs in the 1400 W/m2*K case with Inconel 740H used, indicating that higher HTCs reduce stress and extend lifespan. This research advances the design of high-efficiency, low-stress solar receivers for particle-based thermal energy storage in CSP and industrial heating applications.

concentrating solar power

Demonstration of a Novel Phase-Space Painting Method in a Coupled Lattice to Mitigate Space Charge in High-Intensity Hadron Beams

Multiturn charge-exchange injection is the primary method of creating high-intensity hadron beams in circular accelerators, and phase space painting during injection enables tailoring of the accumulated phase space distribution. A technique we call eigenpainting allows injection of particles into a single mode of a coupled ring, providing full four-dimensional control of the phase space distribution. Under ideal conditions, uniform eigenpainting generates a linear-force equilibrium distribution in the transverse plane, with zero volume in four-dimensional transverse phase space, even including space charge. Here, we have implemented eigenpainting for the first time in the spallation neutron source accumulator ring. Injecting 8.8 μ⁢C of an 800 MeV beam, we obtain a final ratio of intrinsic transverse emittances of ≈2.4. We analyze the effect of space charge on the final distribution through comparison of the reconstructed phase space to particle-in-cell simulations.

Evans, Nicholas J. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory

Comprehensive Analysis of the Relative Dispersion of Droplet-Size Distributions and Their Relationships to Key Physical Fog Processes Under Different Aerosol Conditions and Evolutionary Stages

The relative dispersion of cloud and fog droplets has significant impacts on aerosol indirect effects, radiative transfer, and microphysical processes. However, previous studies have been mostly concerned with clouds, with limited studies on fog, particularly those that examine the combined influences of all key physical processes and their roles during fog evolution. As such, this study aims to conduct a comprehensive investigation by examining the relationships between relative dispersion and other microphysical variables, as well as the underlying microphysical and dynamic processes, based on field fog campaigns in polluted and clean conditions. In polluted fog, droplet concentrations are higher, leading to smaller droplets and increased dispersion. The correlation between dispersion and droplet volume-mean radius is positive in the polluted fog, but shifts to negative in clean fog. Here, we attribute the difference to various microphysical processes like aerosol activation, condensation, collision-coalescence, and entrainment-mixing. In polluted fog, high aerosol concentrations, low supersaturations, and strong turbulence (entrainment-mixing) provide suitable conditions for the simultaneous occurrence of droplet condensation and aerosol activation, resulting in a positive correlation between dispersion and volume-mean radius, especially during the fog formation stage. In contrast, during the mature stage in clean fog, condensation is dominant with weak aerosol activation leading to a negative correlation between relative dispersion and volume-mean radius. The collision-coalescence process is more active in the mature stage, increasing radii and leading to the negative correlation between dispersion and volume-mean radius. This result sheds new light on understanding the relative dispersion and mechanisms in fog under different aerosol backgrounds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Generative learning for slow manifolds and bifurcation diagrams

In dynamical systems characterized by separation of time scales, the approximation of so called “slow manifolds”, on which the long term dynamics lie, is a useful step for model reduction. Initializing on such slow manifolds is a useful step in modeling, since it circumvents fast transients, and is crucial in multiscale algorithms (like the equation-free approach) alternating between fine scale (fast) and coarser scale (slow) simulations. In a similar spirit, when one studies the infinite time dynamics of systems depending on parameters, the system attractors (e.g., its steady states) lie on bifurcation diagrams (curves for one-parameter continuation, and more generally, on manifolds in state parameter space. Sampling these manifolds gives us representative attractors (here, steady states of ODEs or PDEs) at different parameter values. Algorithms for the systematic construction of these manifolds (slow manifolds, bifurcation diagrams) are required parts of the “traditional” numerical nonlinear dynamics toolkit. In more recent years, as the field of Machine Learning develops, conditional score-based generative models (cSGMs) have been demonstrated to exhibit remarkable capabilities in generating plausible data from target distributions that are conditioned on some given label. It is tempting to exploit such generative models to produce samples of data distributions (points on a slow manifold, steady states on a bifurcation surface) conditioned on (consistent with) some quantity of interest (QoI, observable). In this work, we present a framework for using cSGMs to quickly (a) initialize on a low-dimensional (reduced-order) slow manifold of a multi-time-scale system consistent with desired value(s) of a QoI (a “label”) on the manifold, and (b) approximate steady states in a bifurcation diagram consistent with a (new, out-of-sample) parameter value. This conditional sampling can help uncover the geometry of the reduced slow-manifold and/or approximately “fill in” missing segments of steady states in a bifurcation diagram. Finally, the quantity of interest, which determines how the sampling is conditioned, is either known a priori or identified using manifold learning-based dimensionality reduction techniques applied to the training data.

Dynamical systems

An initial effort to study the influence of pitting in SAVY containers

As part of a broader effort to investigate a critical pit depth, below which SAVY containers fail a leak test after a drop test, surrogate testing using pristine SAVY container material was investigated. The original study involved producing pits in a SAVY wall to depths 35% to 55% of the wall thickness and subjecting the pitted container to a drop test under prototypic conditions. Subsequent leak testing after drop testing showed the container passed and that the pit size distribution and drop conditions were not sufficient to cause a leak test failure in this specific container.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Towards universal unfolding of detector effects in high-energy physics using denoising diffusion probabilistic models

Correcting for detector effects in experimental data, particularly through unfolding, is critical for enabling precision measurements in high-energy physics. However, traditional unfolding methods face challenges in scalability, flexibility, and dependence on simulations. We introduce a novel approach to multidimensional object-wise unfolding using conditional Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models (cDDPM). Our method utilizes the cDDPM for a non-iterative, flexible posterior sampling approach, incorporating distribution moments as conditioning information, which exhibits a strong inductive bias that allows it to generalize to unseen physics processes without explicitly assuming the underlying distribution. Our results highlight the potential of this method as a step towards a "universal" unfolding tool that reduces dependence on truth-level assumptions, while enabling the unfolding of a wide range of measured distributions with improved adaptability and accuracy.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC

Quantitative Evaluation of Potassium Iodide Implementation Strategies for Emergency Preparedness and Response

This study evaluates the effectiveness of potassium iodide (KI) distribution strategies in mitigating exposure to radioiodine during severe nuclear power plant accidents. This analysis quantitatively compares various KI distribution methods (pre-distributed versus stockpiles), including scenarios with and without KI administration. The results indicate that differences in distribution strategies impact the projected thyroid dose by at least an order of magnitude. The results also indicate that the timing of KI administration is critical, as expected. For scenarios involving delayed releases of significant quantities of radionuclides, evacuation is the most effective protection strategy regardless of KI distribution method. For scenarios involving rapid releases, retrieving KI from stockpiles can have a detrimental effect. Pre-distributed KI is potentially the most effective approach when used as a supplement to evacuation and sheltering. However, these model results are based on idealized conditions for KI distribution and administration; the actual benefits of KI prophylaxis are likely to be less than estimated in this report due to many variables. The results highlight the importance of considering the cost and rigor of different distribution programs and public compliance with emergency instructions. This report includes suggested research to explore KI distribution plans for advanced reactors.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

Attribution of heterogeneous stress distributions in low-grain polycrystals under conditions leading to damage

In high-purity polycrystalline metallic materials, voids tend to favor grain boundaries as nucleation sites due to the elevated stress states produced by granular interactions and the weakened grain boundary from the relative atomic disorder. To quantify the key factors of this elevated stress state, simple compression of a small multi-grain cylinder of body-centered cubic tantalum was simulated using a single crystal plasticity model that incorporates non-Schmid effects. Four increasingly complex synthetic microstructures were created to tractably incorporate grain boundary interactions, and a statistically significant number of combinations were performed by varying the initial crystallographic orientations of the microstructure. Most of these simulations produce the maximum von Mises stress on a grain boundary and less frequently at the multi-grain junctions. To build a statistical model for the maximum von Mises stress at the grain boundary, physically based features that could contribute to the elevated stress state were selected. Then, a learning algorithm based on information theory was used to identify which of these features contributed the most information to the data set. The identified features include a grain’s propensity to accommodate both elastic and plastic deformations and their directional components. The misalignment of the direction of each grain’s mechanical response was found to be strongly correlated to the magnitude of the stress near the grain boundary. For all of the synthetic microstructures, the statistical models produce a residual distribution that is nearly Gaussian with a variance of, at most, 10% of the prior distribution. The successful performance of the statistical model implies the correct identification of the physical features that cause severe stress localization in polycrystalline materials. The statistical models constructed here can be used to formulate a physically motivated void nucleation model which is sensitive to a microstructure’s propensity to produce elevated stress states. As a result, these statistical models also enable the design of material microstructures, in which the crystallographic orientation is chosen to resist void nucleation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Recent Metallic Fuel Data Recovery in FIPD

The Metallic Fuels Irradiation and Physics Database (FIPD) [1] is an organized collection of metallic fuel test pin data (U-xPu-yZr, = 0 ~ 28; y = 2 ~ 10) and documentation available to industry. FIPD mainly contains three types of data: (1) Fuel pin fabrication data, including fuel slug diameter, fuel slug length, cladding diameter, smear density, etc. (2) Fuel pin operation conditions, including axial distributions for power, temperatures, fluences, burnup, and isotopic densities, etc. and (3) Fuel pin post-irradiation examination (PIE) data, including fission gas release and gas chemistry, profilometry, and neutron radiography, etc. The operating conditions for pins with PIE data available in FIPD span significant ranges across key parameters. The fuel peak burnup extends from less than 5% up to 20 at%. The cladding peak temperature varies from about 490°C to 660°C. Finally, the cladding peak DPA shows a wide range from less than 5 to 120. These broad ranges reflect the diverse testing conditions and operational parameters captured in the available PIE data. More detail about FIPD can be found in ref. [2]. The database development is an ongoing effort covering metallic fuel experiments from the Experimental Breeder Reactor II (EBR-II) and the Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF). As reported in the ref. [3, 4], most of the PIE data generated during the IFR program [5] has been collected, reviewed, processed, and integrated into FIPD. The most recently added PIE data can be found in ref. [4], which shows the collection of over 95% of the PIE data by the time of this paper. The recent improvements to the database are summarized in this paper.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS

Joint Modeling of Wind Speed and Wind Direction Through a Conditional Approach

Atmospheric near surface wind speed and wind direction play an important role in many applications, ranging from air quality modeling, building design, wind turbine placement to climate change research. It is therefore crucial to accurately estimate the joint probability distribution of wind speed and direction. In this work, we develop a conditional approach to model these two variables, where the joint distribution is decomposed into the product of the marginal distribution of wind direction and the conditional distribution of wind speed given wind direction. To accommodate the circular nature of wind direction, a von Mises mixture model is used; the conditional wind speed distribution is modeled as a directional dependent Weibull distribution via a two-stage estimation procedure, consisting of a directional binned Weibull parameter estimation, followed by a harmonic regression to estimate the dependence of the Weibull parameters on wind direction. A Monte Carlo simulation study indicates that our method outperforms two other approaches in estimation efficiency: one that utilizes periodic spline quantile regression and another that generates data from the commonly used Abe-Ley distribution for cylindrical data. We illustrate our method by using the output from a regional climate model to investigate how the joint distribution of wind speed and direction may change under some future climate scenarios. Our method indicates significant changes in the variation of wind speed with respect to some directions.

17 WIND ENERGY

Multiscale Modeling of Nanoparticle Precipitation in Oxide Dispersion-Strengthened Steels Produced by Laser Powder Bed Fusion

Laser Powder Bed Fusion (LPBF) enables the efficient production of near-net-shape oxide dispersion-strengthened (ODS) alloys, which possess superior mechanical properties due to oxide nanoparticles (e.g., yttrium oxide, Y-O, and yttrium-titanium oxide, Y-Ti-O) embedded in the alloy matrix. To better understand the precipitation mechanisms of the oxide nanoparticles and predict their size distribution under LPBF conditions, we developed an innovative physics-based multiscale modeling strategy that incorporates multiple computational approaches. These include a finite volume method model (Flow3D) to analyze the temperature field and cooling rate of the melt pool during the LPBF process, a density functional theory model to calculate the binding energy of Y-O particles and the temperature-dependent diffusivities of Y and O in molten 316L stainless steel (SS), and a cluster dynamics model to evaluate the kinetic evolution and size distribution of Y-O nanoparticles in as-fabricated 316L SS ODS alloys. The model-predicted particle sizes exhibit good agreement with experimental measurements across various LPBF process parameters, i.e., laser power (110–220 W) and scanning speed (150–900 mm/s), demonstrating the reliability and predictive power of the modeling approach. The multiscale approach can be used to guide the future design of experimental process parameters to control oxide nanoparticle characteristics in LPBF-manufactured ODS alloys. Additionally, our approach introduces a novel strategy for understanding and modeling the thermodynamics and kinetics of precipitation in high-temperature systems, particularly molten alloys.

Wang, Zhengming (ORCID:0000000241627112)

A comparative analysis of residual stresses from friction stir processing of aluminum cast 380 and wrought 7075 alloy sheets: experimental characterization and modeling

Residual stresses are often overlooked in friction stir processing (FSP), but their significant impact on fatigue performance necessitates their consideration in optimizing processing parameters. The first step in this effort is understanding how process conditions influence residual stress distributions, especially across different alloys. This study focuses on determining and explaining the through-thickness residual stress variations and the effect of process temperature on the residual stress magnitude in wrought AA7075 and cast AA380.0 alloys. Additionally, for AA380.0, the impact of a second FSP pass was investigated. To achieve this, hole-drilling electronic speckle pattern interferometry (ESPI) and the thermal pseudo-mechanical (TPM) model within finite element analysis were employed to study the 3D distributions of in-plane residual stresses in processed samples under various conditions. A key finding was the varying impact of process temperatures on residual stress magnitudes. Higher process temperatures reduced stresses in AA380.0 but increased them in AA7075. Additionally, the through-thickness stress distributions differed between the two alloys. Further analysis revealed that yield stresses are crucial in explaining these phenomena and the effects of additional FSP passes. Further, this fundamental understanding will be vital in guiding the efforts to mitigate residual stresses and assess their impact on the performance of FSP aluminum alloys.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Probing the Effect of Electrode Thermodynamics on Reaction Heterogeneity in Thick Battery Electrodes

Thick electrodes present a viable strategy for enhancing energy density and reducing manufacturing costs of lithium-ion batteries. However, reaction heterogeneity during cycling compromises their rate capability and cycle life. While this nonuniformity is commonly attributed to sluggish charge transport, it is demonstrated here that the thermodynamic properties of the electrode material play an equally critical role. Through combined X-ray fluorescence microscopy and absorption near-edge structure spectroscopy, reaction distributions in LiFePO 4 (LFP) and LiNi 0.6 Mn 0.2 Co 0.2 O 2 (NMC) thick electrodes with matched porosity and tortuosity are compared. LFP electrodes develop pronounced depth-oriented state-of-charge (SOC) gradients that worsen with increasing discharge rates, whereas NMC maintains much more uniform SOC distributions under such conditions. This difference originates from their distinct SOC dependence of equilibrium potentials and is quantifiable through a dimensionless “reaction uniformity” number. Intriguingly, LFP thick electrodes also exhibit lateral SOC variations that strengthen during slow discharge. In conclusion, the enhanced reaction uniformity in NMC correlates with better active material utilization and slower capacity fade than LFP, highlighting electrode thermodynamics as a key design consideration for thick electrodes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

A Kinetic Model-Driven Techno-Economic Analysis of Plastic Pyrolysis: Linking Process Dynamics to Economic Viability

This study employs a kinetic model integrated into Aspen Plus to predict pyrolysis product distribution under various conditions. A techno-economic assessment calculated the minimum selling price (MSP) of pyrolysis oil under different operating conditions for the baseline capacity of 100 kta, and across eight processing capacities ranging from 30 to 150 kta. The lowest MSP under the baseline capacity is estimated at $\$$420/ton, which is 33% lower than the 2023 average US crude oil price ($\$$74.6/bbl, equivalent to $\$$634/ton based on the density of pyrolysis oil). Under Monte Carlo simulation, accounting for variability in key economic and technical parameters, the mean MSP is estimated at $\$$1137/ton. The economic viability depends on feedstock price remaining below $\$$320/ton, defining the break-even feedstock price threshold. Sensitivity analysis further identifies capital investment and transportation cost as key economic drivers. Capacities beyond 90 kta show limited economies of scale benefits. Reducing product storage time cuts capital costs by 7% but raises operational risk. Uncertainty analysis suggests the economic feasibility of pyrolysis oil is unlikely to compete with crude oil without policy incentives.

petrochemicals

Design of an Out-Of-Pile Experimental Facility to Demonstrate the Feasibility of In Situ Thermal Conductivity Measurements of Nuclear Fuels Under Irradiation

There is substantial merit in quantifying nuclear fuel performance under irradiation. At Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), the MiniFuel irradiation platform has become the primary test vehicle for conducting separate-effects fuel performance irradiation experiments. The MiniFuel experiment is a passively controlled capsule design deployed in the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) through which fuel performance data is collected post-irradiation. Separate effects fuels irradiation capabilities are being expanded at ORNL by developing instrumented capsule designs that aim to capture fuel performance phenomena in-situ. One such capsule will specifically target fuel specimen thermal conductivity changes as a function of fuel burnup. Due to the complexity of making this measurement on nuclear fuel in-pile, this paper describes the necessary out-of-pile testing conducted on the thermal conductivity capsule (TCC) design. The measurement is ascertained via a thermopile system with heat transferred unidirectionally through a surrogate fuel specimen sandwiched between two conductive materials. The capsules investigated in this study are representative of the in-pile design, with the primary departure from irradiation conditions being the distribution of heat generation within the capsule. In the out-of-pile experiment, an external heater was used to drive heat through the conductive slug materials and into the specimen. This paper expounds the design of the out-of-pile experimental system and the thermal conductivity measurement technique. Predictive models used to determine the sensitivity of the measurement to variables governing thermal contact conductance between the specimen and slug materials and to predict experimental results are also described. Data from the out-of-pile experiment will be used to validate the readiness of the design for insertion into HFIR for irradiation.

Parker, Trevor [ORNL]

Neutrino Beam Monitoring

Accelerator facilities produce neutrino beams from meson decays in a decay volume. Experiments measure event rates that depend on flux, cross sections, and detector response, so the flux is predicted using hadron production and beamline modeling and constrained by beam instrumentation, since near detectors alone cannot separate flux from cross section. Proton, hadron, and muon monitors can track the parent particle distributions and beam conditions, providing the inputs needed for flux predictions in long-baseline experiments such as NOvA, T2K, and DUNE. This talk reviews how beam monitors are used in practice to understand neutrino flux. Proton beam monitors tell where the beam hits the target and how stable it is. Farther downstream, hadron and muon monitors sample particles produced in meson decays. Because those muons come from the same parents as the neutrinos, their profiles reveal focusing, alignment shifts, and other changes in the beam, and they are routinely used to detect problems and guide flux predictions. The muon information can be used more quantitatively; for example, to infer the parent meson phase space, and fast radiation-hard timing detectors can add sensitivity to the momentum dependence of the focusing. These developments show both how tightly beam measurements can constrain the flux and where the current limits still lie. These approaches complement monitored-beam concepts, in which the decay region is instrumented to detect charged leptons from meson decays and to measure the neutrino flux directly.

Ganguly, Sudeshna [Fermilab] (ORCID:00000003163482