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NASA NTRS2015

Random Predictor Models for Rigorous Uncertainty Quantification: Part 1

This and a companion paper propose techniques for constructing parametric mathematical models describing key features of the distribution of an output variable given input-output data. By contrast to standard models, which yield a single output value at each value of the input, Random Predictors Models (RPMs) yield a random variable at each value of the input. Optimization-based strategies for calculating RPMs having a polynomial dependency on the input and a linear dependency on the parameters are proposed. These formulations yield RPMs having various levels of fidelity in which the mean and the variance of the model's parameters, thus of the predicted output, are prescribed. As such they encompass all RPMs conforming to these prescriptions. The RPMs are optimal in the sense that they yield the tightest predictions for which all (or, depending on the formulation, most) of the observations are less than a fixed number of standard deviations from the mean prediction. When the data satisfies mild stochastic assumptions, and the optimization problem(s) used to calculate the RPM is convex (or, when its solution coincides with the solution to an auxiliary convex problem), the model's reliability, which is the probability that a future observation would be within the predicted ranges, can be bounded tightly and rigorously.

Crespo, Luis G.↗

NASA NTRS1985

The application of diffusion theory to the analysis of hydrogen desorption data at 25 deg C

The application of diffusion theory to the analysis of hydrogen desorption data (coulombs of H2 desorbed versus time) has been studied. From these analyses, important information concerning hydrogen solubilities and the nature of the hydrogen distributions in the metal has been obtained. Two nickel base alloys, Rene' 41 and Waspaloy, and one ferrous alloy, 4340 steel, are studied in this work. For the nickel base alloys, it is found that the hydrogen distributions after electrolytic charging conforms closely to those which would be predicted by diffusion theory. For Waspaloy samples charged at 5,000 psi, it is found that the hydrogen distributions are essentially the same as those obtained by electrolytic charging. The hydrogen distributions in electrolytically charged 4340 steel, on the other hand, are essentially uniform in nature, which would not be predicted by diffusion theory. A possible explanation has been proposed. Finally, it is found that the hydrogen desorption is completely explained by the nature of the hydrogen distribution in the metal, and that the fast hydrogen is not due to surface and sub-surface hydride formation, as was originally proposed.

Danford, M. D.↗

NASA NTRS1986

New vistas in the determination of hydrogen in aerospace engine metal alloys

The application of diffusion theory to the analysis of hydrogen desorption data has been studied. From these analyses, important information concerning hydrogen solubilities and the nature of the hydrogen distributions in the metal has been obtained. Two nickel base alloys, Rene' 41 and Waspaloy, and one ferrous alloy, 4340 steel, were studied in this work. For the nickel base alloys, it was found that the hydrogen distributions after electrolytic charging conformed closely to those which would be predicted by diffusion theory. The hydrogen distributions in electrolytically charged 4340 steel, on the other hand, were essentially uniform in nature, which would not be predicted by diffusion theory. Finally, it has been found that the hydrogen desorption is completely explained by the nature of the hydrogen distribution in the metal, and that the 'fast' hydrogen is not due to surface and subsurface hydride formation, as was originally proposed.

Danford, M. D.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Equilibrium and Dynamics Properties of Poly(oxyethylene) Melts and Related Poly(alkylethers) from Simulations and Ab Initio Calculations

Molecular dynamics simulations of POE melts have been performed utilizing a potential force field parameterized to reproduce conformer energies and rotational energy barriers in dimethoxyethane as determined from ab initio electronic structure calculations. Chain conformations and dimensions of POE from the simulations were found to be in good agreement with predictions of a rotational isomeric state (RIS) model based upon the ab initio conformational. energies. The melt chains were found to be somewhat extended relative to chains at theta conditions. This effect will be discussed in light of neutron scattering experiments which indicate that POE chains are extended in the melt relative to theta solutions. The conformational characteristics of POE chains will also be compared with those of other poly (alkylethers), namely poly(oxymethylene), poly(oxytrimethylene) and poly(oxytetramethylene). Local conformational dynamics were found to be more rapid than in polymethylene. Calculated C-H vector correlation times were found to be in reasonable agreement with experimental values from C-13 NMR spin-lattice relaxation times. The influence of ionic salts on local conformations and dynamics will also be discussed.

Smith, Grant D.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Wind Prediction Accuracy for Air Traffic Management Decision Support Tools

The performance of Air Traffic Management and flight deck decision support tools depends in large part on the accuracy of the supporting 4D trajectory predictions. This is particularly relevant to conflict prediction and active advisories for the resolution of conflicts and the conformance with of traffic-flow management flow-rate constraints (e.g., arrival metering / required time of arrival). Flight test results have indicated that wind prediction errors may represent the largest source of trajectory prediction error. The tests also discovered relatively large errors (e.g., greater than 20 knots), existing in pockets of space and time critical to ATM DST performance (one or more sectors, greater than 20 minutes), are inadequately represented by the classic RMS aggregate prediction-accuracy studies of the past. To facilitate the identification and reduction of DST-critical wind-prediction errors, NASA has lead a collaborative research and development activity with MIT Lincoln Laboratories and the Forecast Systems Lab of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). This activity, begun in 1996, has focussed on the development of key metrics for ATM DST performance, assessment of wind-prediction skill for state of the art systems, and development/validation of system enhancements to improve skill. A 13 month study was conducted for the Denver Center airspace in 1997. Two complementary wind-prediction systems were analyzed and compared to the forecast performance of the then standard 60 km Rapid Update Cycle - version 1 (RUC-1). One system, developed by NOAA, was the prototype 40-km RUC-2 that became operational at NCEP in 1999. RUC-2 introduced a faster cycle (1 hr vs. 3 hr) and improved mesoscale physics. The second system, Augmented Winds (AW), is a prototype en route wind application developed by MITLL based on the Integrated Terminal Wind System (ITWS). AW is run at a local facility (Center) level, and updates RUC predictions based on an optimal interpolation of the latest ACARS reports since the RUC run. This paper presents an overview of the study's results including the identification and use of new large mor wind-prediction accuracy metrics that are key to ATM DST performance.

Cole, Rod↗

NASA NTRS2003

Mechanosensitive Ion Channels in Bacteria: Functional Domains and Mechanisms of Gating

The past funding period was productive for the group. The progress in the mechanosensitive channel field was critically affected in the end of 1998 by the solution of the crystal structure of the mycobacterial homolog of MscL by our colleagues from Caltech. Having the structure of TbMscL in the closed state, we developed a detailed homology model of EcoMscL, and related the structural model with the wealth of functional phenomenology available for the E. coli version of the channel (EcoMscL). The biophysical properties of the open MscL helped to model the open conformation and infer the pathway for the entire gating transition. The following experiments provided strong support to the atomic model of the gating process, and allowed to make further predictions. The work has advanced our understanding of tension-driven conformational transitions in membrane-embedded mechanosensory proteins, determine major energetic contributions and set the stage for further exploration of the whole family of mechanosensitive channels. The results have been published in seven experimental and theoretical papers, with three other papers currently in press or in preparation.

Sukharev, Sergei↗

NASA NTRS2012

Arcjet Testing and Thermal Model Development for Multilayer Felt Reusable Surface Insulation

Felt Reusable Surface Insulation was used extensively on leeward external surfaces of the Shuttle Orbiter, where the material is reusable for temperatures up to 670 K. For application on leeward surfaces of the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle, where predicted temperatures reach 1620 K, the material functions as a pyrolyzing conformal ablator. An arcjet test series was conducted to assess the performance of multilayer Felt Reusable Surface Insulation at high temperatures, and a thermal-response, pyrolysis, and ablation model was developed. Model predictions compare favorably with the arcjet test data

Milos, Frank S.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Monte Carlo lattice models for adsorbed polymer conformation

The adhesion between a polymer film and a metal surface is of great technological interest. However, the prediction of adhesion and wear properties of polymer coated metals is quite difficult because a fundamental understanding of the polymer surface interaction does not yet exist. A computer model for the conformation of a polymer molecule adsorbed on a surface is discussed. The chain conformation is assumed to be described by a partially directed random walk on a three dimensional simple cubic lattice. An attractive surface potential is incorporated into the model through the use of a random walk step probability distribution that is anisotropic in the direction normal to the attractive surface. The effects of variations in potential characteristics are qualitatively included by varying both the degree of anisotropy of the step distribution and the range of the anisotropy. Polymer conformation is characterized by the average end to end distance, average radius of gyration, and average number of chain segments adsorbed on the surface.

Good, B. S.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Galilean satellites - Anomalous temperatures disputed

Anomalous averaged infrared brightness temperatures of the Galilean satellites of Jupiter reported by Gross (1975) are rejected as falsely conceived and lacking physical reality. It is argued that the calculations of equilibrium temperatures should be corrected, whereupon predictions would be in satisfactory agreement with observations, in conformity with the radiometric method of determining the diameters of asteroids and satellites. The IR irradiance and the related disk-averaged brightness temperature for the spectral band are recommended as more relevant. Attention is drawn to some interesting discrepancies between calculated and observed temperatures of the Jovian satellites which merit further investigation.

Morrison, D.↗

NASA NTRS1990

A linear shock cell model for non-circular jets using conformal mapping with a pseudo-spectral hybrid scheme

The shock structure in non-circular supersonic jets is predicted using a linear model. This model includes the effects of the finite thickness of the mixing layer and the turbulence in the jet shear layer. A numerical solution is obtained using a conformal mapping grid generation scheme with a hybrid pseudo-spectral discretization method. The uniform pressure perturbation at the jet exit is approximated by a Fourier-Mathieu series. The pressure at downstream locations is obtained from an eigenfunction expansion that is matched to the pressure perturbation at the jet exit. Results are presented for a circular jet and for an elliptic jet of aspect ratio 2.0. Comparisons are made with experimental data.

Bhat, Thonse R. S.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Does Velocity Redistribution Really Enhance the HE 304 A Line to Observed Intensities?

Previous work by this group has demonstrated that small-scale nonthermal velocities probably play a significant role in enhancing the intensity of the He II 304 A line above values predicted by the static atmosphere NLTE theories, and more in conformity with Skylab and SOHO observations. This presentation briefly summarizes the evidence for this conclusion, emphasizing SOHO and correlated groundbased observations, of which examples are presented. However, in contrast to the previous studies, the tact taken here is more critical, asking the question "Can velocity redistribution fully explain the observations of the 304 A line, and what counter-indications and problems remain?" The conclusion reached is that, while velocity redistribution plays a significant role in the intensity enhancement, it may not be the whole story. Some other mechanism, associated with velocity filtration, may be at work.

Jordan, Stuart↗

NASA NTRS1976

Calculation of the longitudinal aerodynamic characteristics of wing-flap configurations with externally blown flaps

A theoretical investigation was carried out to extend and improve an existing method for predicting the longitudinal characteristics of wing flap configurations with externally blown flaps (EBF). Two potential flow models were incorporated into the prediction method: a wing and flap lifting-surface model and a turbofan engine wake model. The wing-flap model uses a vortex-lattice approach to represent the wing and flaps. The jet wake model consists of a series of closely spaced vortex rings normal to a centerline which may have vertical and lateral curvature to conform to the local flow field beneath the wing and flaps. Comparisons of measured and predicted pressure distributions, span load distributions on each lifting surface, and total lift and pitching moment coefficients on swept and unswept EBF configurations are included. A wide range of thrust coefficients and flap deflection angles is considered at angles of attack up to the onset of stall. Results indicate that overall lift and pitching-moment coefficients are predicted reasonably well over the entire range. The predicted detailed load distributions are qualitatively correct and show the peaked loads at the jet impingement points, but the widths and heights of the load peaks are not consistently predicted.

Mendenhall, M. R.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Transition probabilities and Stark-broadening parameters of neutral and singly ionized lead

Strengths and Stark widths of the prominent visible PbI and PbII lines are measured in emission by means of a gas-driven shock tube. Absolute ionic line strengths for 7s-7p and 7p-7d arrays conform well to quantum-mechanical sum rules and agree with theoretical predictions, but 6d-5f results differ markedly from central-field approximations. Neutral-line strengths agree satisfactorily with available comparison data. Semiempirical theory predicts the widths of PbII lines with characteristic reliability of better than 25%.

Miller, M. H.↗

NASA NTRS1984

A unified relation for cavitation erosion

A power-law relationship between the average erosion rate and cumulative erosion is presented. Data analyses from Venturi, magnetostriction, and liquid-impingement devices conform to this unified relation. A normalization technique is also suggested for prediction purposes.

Veerabhadra Rao, P.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Direct simulation for the instability and breakup of laminar liquid jets

A direct numerical simulation method is described for predicting the deformation of laminar liquid jets. In the present nonlinear direct simulation, the convective term, which has been discarded in past linear analyses by Rayleigh and others, is included in the hydrodynamic equations. It is shown that only by maintaining full complexity of the nonlinear surface tension term accurate drop formation can be predicted. The continuity and momentum equations in the transient form are integrated on an adaptive grid, conforming the jet and surface wave shape. The equations, which are parabolic in time and elliptic in space, are solved by a TVD scheme with characteristic flux splitting. The results of the present work are discussed and compared with available measurements and other analyses. The comparison shows that among the predictions, the current 1-D direct simulation results agree best with the experimental data. Furthermore, the computer time requirements are much (an order of magnitude) smaller than those of previously reported multidimensional analyses.

Chuech, S. G.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Controller Strategies for Automation Tool Use under Varying Levels of Trajectory Prediction Uncertainty

A human-in-the-loop simulation was conducted to examine the effects of varying levels of trajectory prediction uncertainty on air traffic controller workload and performance, as well as how strategies and the use of decision support tools change in response. This paper focuses on the strategies employed by two controllers from separate teams who worked in parallel but independently under identical conditions (airspace, arrival traffic, tools) with the goal of ensuring schedule conformance and safe separation for a dense arrival flow in en route airspace. Despite differences in strategy and methods, both controllers achieved high levels of schedule conformance and safe separation. Overall, results show that trajectory uncertainties introduced by wind and aircraft performance prediction errors do not affect the controllers' ability to manage traffic. Controller strategies were fairly robust to changes in error, though strategies were affected by the amount of delay to absorb (scheduled time of arrival minus estimated time of arrival). Using the results and observations, this paper proposes an ability to dynamically customize the display of information including delay time based on observed error to better accommodate different strategies and objectives.

Strategy↗

NASA NTRS1982

Analysis of rotary balance data for the F-15 airplane including the effect of conformal fuel tanks

F-15 rotary balance data was analyzed, and the influence of control deflections, Reynolds number and airplane components, i.e., body, wing, horizontal and vertical tails, as well as conformal tanks, on the aerodynamics up to 90 degrees angle of attack are discussed. Steady state spin mode predictions using these data are presented, which show excellent correlation with spin tunnel and flight test results. Generally, the data shows damped yawing moment slopes with rotation at all angles of attack, and good control effectiveness. Differences in the rotary aerodynamics due to the addition of conformal tanks are minimal. The small differences in the region of the flat spin do, however, indicate that the resulting spin mode would be slightly flatter and faster for a conformal tank equipped airplane. The addition of conformal tanks make the airplane more departure susceptible.

Barnhart, B.↗

NASA NTRS2001

The gating mechanism of the large mechanosensitive channel MscL

The mechanosensitive channel of large conductance, MscL, is a ubiquitous membrane-embedded valve involved in turgor regulation in bacteria. The crystal structure of MscL from Mycobacterium tuberculosis provides a starting point for analysing molecular mechanisms of tension-dependent channel gating. Here we develop structural models in which a cytoplasmic gate is formed by a bundle of five amino-terminal helices (S1), previously unresolved in the crystal structure. When membrane tension is applied, the transmembrane barrel expands and pulls the gate apart through the S1-M1 linker. We tested these models by substituting cysteines for residues predicted to be near each other only in either the closed or open conformation. Our results demonstrate that S1 segments form the bundle when the channel is closed, and crosslinking between S1 segments prevents opening. S1 segments interact with M2 when the channel is open, and crosslinking of S1 to M2 impedes channel closing. Gating is affected by the length of the S1-M1 linker in a manner consistent with the model, revealing critical spatial relationships between the domains that transmit force from the lipid bilayer to the channel gate.

Non-NASA Center↗