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Detecting And Characterizing Archetypes of Unintended Consequences in Engineered Systems

When designing engineered systems, the potential for unintended consequences of design policies or design decisions exists despite best intentions. Conditions that might cause the formation of unintended consequences are often known only in hindsight. However, since these conditions are associated with a single event, it is difficult to uncover the general patterns of conditions leading to unintended consequences. In this research, patterns of conditions associated with unintended consequences are learned from historical data and represented in the form of archetypes. While previous work using systems theoretic modeling has identified high-level archetypes, this work leverages a self-organizing map to learn archetypes of unintended consequences from human-tagged risk factors in a large data set of lessons learned from adverse events at NASA. The sixty-six identified archetypes contain patterns of conditions such as complexity and human-machine interaction associated with the formation of unintended consequences. To validate the archetypes, a sample of the archetypes is represented using system dynamics in order to illustrate that the identified archetypes are specialized versions of known high-level archetypes of unintended consequences. While the research is based upon a specific dataset, the archetypes apply to any engineered system and the pattern of leading indicators open a new path to manage unintended consequences and mitigate the magnitude of potentially adverse outcomes.

Hannah S Walsh

Conceptual Design of Propulsors for the SUSAN Electrofan Transport Aircraft

Conceptual designs of the propulsor modules for the SUSAN electro-fan aircraft are sought after. Shaft power requirement is reduced by using boundary layer ingesting propulsion technology. There are several obstacles to designing feasible BLI propulsion systems such as inlet distortion, flow blockage from ingesting low-momentum flow, strong coupling between airframe and propulsion systems. Thus, the high fidelity CFD tool is indispensable to assess the performance of the propulsion systems and evaluate the inlet profiles during the design process. Consequently, the CFD data is used to update the inputs for the NPSS model from the initial stage of the system design. Hence, the inlet sizing, fan design, and estimation of the power saving are carried out. Various installation concepts of the mail-slot nacelle, such as under-/over-wing and trailing edge configurations, are investigated for the wing-mounted turbo-electric distributed propulsor module, and their power-saving is evaluated. As for the tail-mounted turbofan engine, the fan diameter and inlet captured area is determined based on the CFD profiles. An appropriate area ratio of the bypass and core ducts is derived from meeting the target bypass ratio from the system design. The baseline fan stage is analyzed by full annulus URANS CFD to assess the efficiency penalty due to the ingested pressure and swirl distortions.

SUSAN Electro-Fan Aircraft

Conceptual Design of Propulsors for the SUSAN Electrofan Transport Aircrafts

Conceptual designs of the propulsor modules for the SUSAN electro-fan aircraft are sought after. Shaft power requirement is reduced by using boundary layer ingesting propulsion technology. There are several obstacles to designing feasible BLI propulsion systems such as inlet distortion, flow blockage from ingesting low-momentum flow, strong coupling between airframe and propulsion systems. Thus, the high fidelity CFD tool is indispensable to assess the performance of the propulsion systems and evaluate the inlet profiles during the design process. Consequently, the CFD data is used to update the inputs for the NPSS model from the initial stage of the system design. Hence, the inlet sizing, fan design, and estimation of the power saving are carried out. Various installation concepts of the mail-slot nacelle, such as under-/over-wing and trailing edge configurations, are investigated for the wing-mounted turbo-electric distributed propulsor module, and their power-saving is evaluated. As for the tail-mounted turbofan engine, the fan diameter and inlet captured area is determined based on the CFD profiles. An appropriate area ratio of the bypass and core ducts is derived from meeting the target bypass ratio from the system design. The baseline fan stage is analyzed by full annulus URANS CFD to assess the efficiency penalty due to the ingested pressure and swirl distortions.

Electric Aircraft

Design with brittle materials - An interdisciplinary educational program

A series of interdisciplinary design courses being offered to senior and graduate engineering students at the University of Washington is described. Attention is given to the concepts and some of the details on group design projects that have been undertaken during the past two years. It is noted that ceramic materials normally demonstrate a large scatter in strength properties. As a consequence, when designing with these materials, the conventional 'mil standards' design stresses with acceptable margins of safety cannot by employed and the designer is forced to accept a probable number of failures in structures of a given brittle material. It is this prediction of the probability of failure for structures of given, well-characterized materials that forms the basis for this series of courses.

Mueller, J. I.

Effects of Flame Structure and Hydrodynamics on Soot Particle Inception and Flame Extinction in Diffusion Flames

This paper summarizes recent studies of the effects of stoichiometric mixture fraction (structure) and hydrodynamics on soot particle inception and flame extinction in diffusion flames. Microgravity experiments are uniquely suited for these studies because, unlike normal gravity experiments, they allow structural and hydrodynamic effects to be independently studied. As part of this recent flight definition program, microgravity studies have been performed in the 2.2 second drop tower. Normal gravity counterflow studies also have been employed and analytical and numerical models have been developed. A goal of this program is to develop sufficient understanding of the effects of flame structure that flames can be "designed" to specifications - consequently, the program name Flame Design. In other words, if a soot-free, strong, low temperature flame is required, can one produce such a flame by designing its structure? Certainly, as in any design, there will be constraints imposed by the properties of the available "materials." For hydrocarbon combustion, the base materials are fuel and air. Additives could be considered, but for this work only fuel, oxygen and nitrogen are considered. Also, the structure of these flames is "designed" by varying the stoichiometric mixture fraction. Following this line of reasoning, the studies described are aimed at developing the understanding of flame structure that is needed to allow for optimum design.

Axelbaum, R. L.

Moving from Information Assurance to Functional Assurance with Engineered Controls

Cyber threats to operational technology demand more than traditional IT defenses—they require full-spectrum mission assurance. Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) is an approach that embeds engineered controls into system design to ensure critical functions remain safe and reliable, even under attack. Unlike conventional cybersecurity tools, engineered controls act directly on physical processes to prevent unacceptable outcomes such as equipment damage or mission failure. This session will outline the CIE framework and share examples of consequence-based design that deliver true resilience, not just fail-safe behaviors. Attendees will learn how to integrate these principles into the engineering lifecycle to support resilient-by-design architectures and inform emerging standards. This talk sets the stage for the panel discussion on advancing CIE across sectors as digital and physical systems converge.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Head-mounted spatial instruments II: Synthetic reality or impossible dream

A spatial instrument is defined as a spatial display which has been either geometrically or symbolically enhanced to enable a user to accomplish a particular task. Research conducted over the past several years on 3-D spatial instruments has shown that perspective displays, even when viewed from the correct viewpoint, are subject to systematic viewer biases. These biases interfere with correct spatial judgements of the presented pictorial information. The design of spatial instruments may not only require the introduction of compensatory distortions to remove the naturally occurring biases but also may significantly benefit from the introduction of artificial distortions which enhance performance. However, these image manipulations can cause a loss of visual-vestibular coordination and induce motion sickness. Consequently, the design of head-mounted spatial instruments will require an understanding of the tolerable limits of visual-vestibular discord.

Ellis, Stephen R.

Head-mounted spatial instruments: Synthetic reality or impossible dream

A spatial instrument is defined as a display device which has been either geometrically or symbolically enhanced to better enable a user to accomplish a particular task. Research conducted over the past several years on 3-D spatial instruments has shown that perspective displays, even when viewed from the correct viewpoint, are subject to systematic viewer biases. These biases interfere with correct spatial judgements of the presented pictorial information. It is also found that deliberate, appropriate geometric distortion of the perspective projection of an image can improve user performance. These two findings raise intriguing questions concerning the design of head-mounted spatial instruments. The design of such instruments may not only require the introduction of compensatory distortions to remove the neutrally occurring biases but also may significantly benefit from the introduction of artificial distortions which enhance performance. These image manipulations, however, can cause a loss of visual-vestibular coordination and induce motion sickness. Additionally, adaptation to these manipulations is apt to be impaired by computational delays in the image display. Consequently, the design of head-mounted spatial instruments will require an understanding of the tolerable limits of visual-vestibular discord.

Ellis, Stephen R.

Thermal Lens Measurement in Diode-Pumped Nd:YAG Zig-Zag Slab

A major advantage that solid state zig-zag slab lasers have over conventional rod-based designs is that a much weaker thermal lens is produced in the slab when side-pumped with Quasi-CW laser diode arrays, particularly if the pump radiation is kept well away from the Brewster-cut ends. This paper reports on a rather strong thermal lens produced when diode pump radiation is collimated into a narrow portion of the zig-zag slab. The collimation of multi-bar pump packages to increase brightness and improve overlap is a direct consequence of designs which seek to maximize performance and efficiency. Our slab design employed a 8.1 cm x 2.5 mm x 5 mm slab with opposing Brewster end faces. It was pumped through the 2.5 mm direction by seven laser diode array packages, each housing four 6OW diode bars, 1 cm in width. The pump face, anti-reflection (AR) coated at 809 nm, was 6.8 cm in width and the 8.1 cm opposing side, high-reflection (HR) coated at 809 nm, reflected the unabsorbed pump beam for a second pass through the slab.

Smoak, M. C.

Development of Position-Sensitive Magnetic Calorimeters for X-Ray Astronomy

Metallic magnetic calorimeters (MMC) are one of the most promising devices to provide very high energy resolution needed for future astronomical x-ray spectroscopy. MMC detectors can be built to large detector arrays having thousands of pixels. Position-sensitive magnetic (PoSM) microcalorimeters consist of multiple absorbers thermally coupled to one magnetic micro calorimeter. Each absorber element has a different thermal coupling to the MMC, resulting in a distribution of different pulse shapes and enabling position discrimination between the absorber elements. PoSMs therefore achieve the large focal plane area with fewer number of readout channels without compromising spatial sampling. Excellent performance of PoSMs was achieved by optimizing the designs of key parameters such as the thermal conductance among the absorbers, magnetic sensor, and heat sink, as well as the absorber heat capacities. Micro fab ri - cation techniques were developed to construct four-absorber PoSMs, in which each absorber consists of a two-layer composite of bismuth and gold. The energy resolution (FWHM full width at half maximum) was measured to be better than 5 eV at 6 keV x-rays for all four absorbers. Position determination was demonstrated with pulse-shape discrimination, as well as with pulse rise time. X-ray microcalorimeters are usually designed to thermalize as quickly as possible to avoid degradation in energy resolution from position dependence to the pulse shapes. Each pixel consists of an absorber and a temperature sensor, both decoupled from the cold bath through a weak thermal link. Each pixel requires a separate readout channel; for instance, with a SQUID (superconducting quantum interference device). For future astronomy missions where thousands to millions of resolution elements are required, having an individual SQUID readout channel for each pixel becomes difficult. One route to attaining these goals is a position-sensitive detector in which a large continuous or pixilated array of x-ray absorbers shares fewer numbers of temperature sensors. A means of discriminating the signals from different absorber positions, however, needs to be built into the device for each sensor. The design concept for the device is such that the shape of the temperature pulse with time depends on the location of the absorber. This inherent position sensitivity of the signal is then analyzed to determine the location of the event precisely, effectively yielding one device with many sub-pixels. With such devices, the total number of electronic channels required to read out a given number of pixels is significantly reduced. PoSMs were developed that consist of four discrete absorbers connected to a single magnetic sensor. The design concept can be extended to more than four absorbers per sensor. The thermal conductance between the sensor and each absorber is different by design and consequently, the pulse shapes are different depending upon which absorber the xrays are received, allowing position discrimination. A magnetic sensor was used in which a paramagnetic Au:Er temperature-sensitive material is located in a weak magnetic field. Deposition of energy from an x-ray photon causes an increase in temperature, which leads to a change of magnetization of the paramagnetic sensor, which is subsequently read out using a low noise dc-SQUID. The PoSM microcalorimeters are fully microfabricated: the Au:Er sensor is located above the meander, with a thin insulation gap in between. For this position-sensitive device, four electroplated absorbers are thermally linked to the sensor via heat links of different thermal conductance. One pixel is identical to that of a single-pixel design, consisting of an overhanging absorber fabricated directly on top of the sensor. It is therefore very strongly thermally coupled to it. The three other absorbers are supported directly on a silicon-nitride membrane. These absorbers are thermally coupled to the sensor via Ti (5 nm)/Au250 nm) metal links. The strength of the links is parameterized by the number of gold squares making up the link. For detector performance, experimentally different pulse-shapes were demonstrated with 6 keV x-rays, which clearly show different rise times for different absorber positions. For energy resolution measurement, the PoSM was operated at 32 mK with an applied field that was generated using a persistent current of 50 mA. Over the four pixels, energy resolution ranges from 4.4 to 4.7 eV were demonstrated.

Bandler, SImon

An integrated in-situ coordination strategy enabling high-performance layered cathodes for sodium-ion batteries

O3-type layered transition metal oxide cathodes hold tremendous potential in sodium-ion batteries (SIBs) due to their low cost and high energy density. However, the structure instability associated with detrimental phase transitions and severe interface parasitic reactions exacerbate the material's electrochemical performance degradation. Herein, we develop an integrated in-situ coordination strategy via heteroatomic modulation inducing coherent epitaxial layer to collaboratively enhance the overall framework robustness from surface to bulk. The theoretical calculation and multiple in/ex-situ characterizations demonstrate the charge density around oxygen is redistributed, which promotes the electron localization, thus widening the NaO 2 lattice space and accelerating the Na + transport dynamics. Furthermore, the formed strengthened oxygen bond energy effectively distributes the long-range coordination of Mn 3+ O 6 octahedron, thereby alleviating Jahn-Teller distortion and local stress. Importantly, the in-situ formed conformal buffer layer dramatically relieves the adverse interface side reactions, facilitating the construction of robust cathode-electrolyte interface, which ameliorate the whole structure stability of designed materials. Consequently, the optimized NFMZ@NZO-1.0 exhibits the excellent cycling stability with 80.2% capacity retention after 300 cycles at 1C, and delivers a high discharge capacity of 107.1 mAh g −1 at 10C. In conclusion, this distinctive coupling strategy provides valuable insights for developing high-performance layered cathode materials in SIBs.

Coherent epitaxial layer

Analytical and Performance-Based Evaluation Alternatives to Full-Scope, High-Fidelity Testbeds

One consequence the design and operational differences of advanced reactors is that integrated system validation (ISV) using full-scope, high-fidelity testbed might not be cost-justified or practical. The absence of traditional ISV may pose an issue for the conduct of safety evaluations since it may leave regulators without the information derived from this performance-based testing. The purpose of this research is to identify analytical and performance-based test and evaluation methods that are alternatives to full-scope, high-fidelity testbeds that have traditionally been used for ISV. We developed a method to test validation based on a multi-stage validation (MSV) framework. MSV is an approach to meeting validation objectives through incremental, successive validation activities beginning in the early stages of the design process and continuing through the later stages. MSV doesn't rely solely on late stage validation, rather it accommodates the use of a broad spectrum of analytical and performance-based information and a diversity of testbeds. In addition, MSV embraces the use of information from other types of evaluations and analyses.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

Turbojet-engine Starting and Acceleration

From considerations of safety and reliability in performance of gas-turbine aircraft, it is clear that engine starting and acceleration are of utmost importance. For this reason extensive efforts have been devoted to the investigation of the factors involved in the starting and acceleration of engines. In chapter III it is shown that certain basic combustion requirements must be met before ignition can occur; consequently, the design and operation of an engine must be tailored to provide these basic requirements in the combustion zone of the engine, particularly in the vicinity of the ignition source. It is pointed out in chapter III that ignition by electrical discharges is aided by high pressure, high temperature, low gas velocity and turbulence, gaseous fuel-air mixture, proper mixture strength, and-an optimum spark. duration. The simultaneous achievement of all these requirements in an actual turbojet-engine combustor is obviously impossible, yet any attempt to satisfy as many requirements as possible will result in lower ignition energies, lower-weight ignition systems, and greater reliability. These factors together with size and cost considerations determine the acceptability of the final ignition system. It is further shown in chapter III that the problem of wall quenching affects engine starting. For example, the dimensions of the volume to be burned must be larger than the quenching distance at the lowest pressure and the most adverse fuel-air ratio encountered. This fact affects the design of cross-fire tubes between adjacent combustion chambers in a tubular-combustor turbojet engine. Only two chambers in these engines contain spark plugs; therefore, the flame must propagate through small connecting tubes between the chambers. The quenching studies indicate that if the cross-fire tubes are too narrow the flame will not propagate from one chamber to another. In order to better understand the role of the basic factors in actual engine operation, many investigations have been conducted in single combustors from gas-turbine engines and in full-scale engines in altitude tanks and in flight. The purpose of the present chapter is to discuss the results of such studies and, where possible, to interpret these results qualitatively in terms of the basic requirements reported in chapter III. The discussion parallels the three phases of turbojet engine starting: (1) Ignition of the fuel-air mixture (2) Propagation of flame throughout the combustion zone (3) Acceleration of the engine to operating speed.

Mc Cafferty, R. J.

Arterial and grooved cryogenic heat pipes.

Tests were conducted on two cryogenic heat pipes using nitrogen as the working fluid. Both pipes are 1.27 cm in diameter. The first pipe is 141 cm long and uses longitudinal grooves in the aluminum wall as the wick structure. The second pipe is 91 cm long and has an arterial wick adjacent to the wall. In addition, circumferential screw threads are machined along the entire length of the inside pipe wall. Both heat pipes primed with no difficulty in the horizontal position. Start-up after burn-out was obtained repeatedly. However, more testing is required to determine whether the artery pipe is as reliable as the grooved pipe with respect to priming. Once primed, the artery heat pipe is much less sensitive to elevation than the grooved design and, consequently, offers a significant advantage with respect to ground testing. Heat-transfer characteristics of the two pipes were comparable, with both pipes achieving the initial goal of 1000 watt-cm of heat-transport capability.

Brennan, P.

Modeling error analysis of stationary linear discrete-time filters

The performance of Kalman-type, linear, discrete-time filters in the presence of modeling errors is considered. The discussion is limited to stationary performance, and bounds are obtained for the performance index, the mean-squared error of estimates for suboptimal and optimal (Kalman) filters. The computation of these bounds requires information on only the model matrices and the range of errors for these matrices. Consequently, a design can easily compare the performance of a suboptimal filter with that of the optimal filter, when only the range of errors in the elements of the model matrices is available.

Patel, R.

High-power microwave optics for flexible power transmission systems

A large concave microwave mirror near the transmitter can magnify the apparent size of the Earth as seen from a phased array, and vice versa, permitting a small phased array to be coupled to a small rectenna while preserving the transmission efficiency (the reflection loss is slight) and peak power densities characteristic of the reference system. This augmentation of the phased array aperture with a large mirror gives the system greater resolution (in the optical sense), and opens new degrees of freedom in SPS design. The consequences of such an approach for a prototype satellite were explored. Its consequences for a mature SPS are discussed.

Drexler, K. E.

Electrical, Electronic, and Electromechanical (EEE) parts management and control requirements for NASA space flight programs

This document establishes electrical, electronic, and electromechanical (EEE) parts management and control requirements for contractors providing and maintaining space flight and mission-essential or critical ground support equipment for NASA space flight programs. Although the text is worded 'the contractor shall,' the requirements are also to be used by NASA Headquarters and field installations for developing program/project parts management and control requirements for in-house and contracted efforts. This document places increased emphasis on parts programs to ensure that reliability and quality are considered through adequate consideration of the selection, control, and application of parts. It is the intent of this document to identify disciplines that can be implemented to obtain reliable parts which meet mission needs. The parts management and control requirements described in this document are to be selectively applied, based on equipment class and mission needs. Individual equipment needs should be evaluated to determine the extent to which each requirement should be implemented on a procurement. Utilization of this document does not preclude the usage of other documents. The entire process of developing and implementing requirements is referred to as 'tailoring' the program for a specific project. Some factors that should be considered in this tailoring process include program phase, equipment category and criticality, equipment complexity, and mission requirements. Parts management and control requirements advocated by this document directly support the concept of 'reliability by design' and are an integral part of system reliability and maintainability. Achieving the required availability and mission success objectives during operation depends on the attention given reliability and maintainability in the design phase. Consequently, it is intended that the requirements described in this document are consistent with those of NASA publications, 'Reliability Program Requirements for Aeronautical and Space System Contractors,' NHB 5300.4(1A-l); 'Maintainability Program Requirements for Space Systems,' NHB 5300.4(1E); and 'Quality Program Provisions for Aeronautical and Space System Contractors,' NHB 5300.4(1B).

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Dynamic Forms and Their Application to Control

The rigid body model plays a basic role in both mod- and control of many systems, including aircraft flight control. The distinctive feature of the rigid body is that its motion evolves on a curved space, Consequently, the designer must take into account the deterioration of chosen coordinations near their singularities. In these regions the control actions and the sensitivity to modeling and sensor errors become unacceptable. Thus, coordinate patches and patching logic should be a part of the overall control law design and implementation. The various dynamic forms, such as scalar forms, vector forms, matrix forms, rotational forms, Euler angle forms, and Euler parameter forms, described in the paper provide an effective means for coordinate patching and control law implementation. The utility of these forms is illustrated by means of several applications to flight control.

Meyer, George