Search NASASearch

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Consequence Analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 37 records · Page 2

Comparison of experimental rotor damping data-reduction techniques

The ability of existing data reduction techniques to determine frequency and damping from transient time-history records was evaluated. Analog data records representative of small-scale helicopter aeroelastic stability tests were analyzed. The data records were selected to provide information on the accuracy of reduced frequency and decay coefficients as a function of modal damping level, modal frequency, number of modes present in the time history record, proximity to other modes with different frequencies, steady offset in time history, and signal-to-noise ratio. The study utilized the results from each of the major U.S. helicopter manufacturers, the U.S. Army Aeroflightdynamics Directorate, and NASA Ames Research Center using their inhouse data reduction and analysis techniques. Consequently, the accuracy of different data analysis techniques and the manner in which they were implemented were also evaluated. It was found that modal frequencies can be accurately determined even in the presence of significant random and periodic noise. Identified decay coefficients do, however, show considerable variation, particularly for highly damped modes. The manner in which the data are reduced and the role of the data analyst was shown to be important. Although several different damping determination methods were used, no clear trends were evident for the observed differences between the individual analysis techniques. It is concluded that the data reduction of modal-damping characteristics from transient time histories results in a range of damping values.

Warmbrodt, William

Methods for trend analysis: Examples with problem/failure data

Statistics are emphasized as an important role in quality control and reliability. Consequently, Trend Analysis Techniques recommended a variety of statistical methodologies that could be applied to time series data. The major goal of the working handbook, using data from the MSFC Problem Assessment System, is to illustrate some of the techniques in the NASA standard, some different techniques, and to notice patterns of data. Techniques for trend estimation used are: regression (exponential, power, reciprocal, straight line) and Kendall's rank correlation coefficient. The important details of a statistical strategy for estimating a trend component are covered in the examples. However, careful analysis and interpretation is necessary because of small samples and frequent zero problem reports in a given time period. Further investigations to deal with these issues are being conducted.

Church, Curtis K.

Wavelet Methods Developed to Detect and Control Compressor Stall

A "wavelet" is, by definition, an amplitude-varying, short waveform with a finite bandwidth (e.g., that shown in the first two graphs). Naturally, wavelets are more effective than the sinusoids of Fourier analysis for matching and reconstructing signal features. In wavelet transformation and inversion, all transient or periodic data features (as in compressor-inlet pressures) can be detected and reconstructed by stretching or contracting a single wavelet to generate the matching building blocks. Consequently, wavelet analysis provides many flexible and effective ways to reduce noise and extract signals which surpass classical techniques - making it very attractive for data analysis, modeling, and active control of stall and surge in high-speed turbojet compressors. Therefore, fast and practical wavelet methods are being developed in-house at the NASA Lewis Research Center to assist in these tasks. This includes establishing user-friendly links between some fundamental wavelet analysis ideas and the classical theories (or practices) of system identification, data analysis, and processing.

Le, Dzu K.

Modeling beta-adrenergic control of cardiac myocyte contractility in silico

The beta-adrenergic signaling pathway regulates cardiac myocyte contractility through a combination of feedforward and feedback mechanisms. We used systems analysis to investigate how the components and topology of this signaling network permit neurohormonal control of excitation-contraction coupling in the rat ventricular myocyte. A kinetic model integrating beta-adrenergic signaling with excitation-contraction coupling was formulated, and each subsystem was validated with independent biochemical and physiological measurements. Model analysis was used to investigate quantitatively the effects of specific molecular perturbations. 3-Fold overexpression of adenylyl cyclase in the model allowed an 85% higher rate of cyclic AMP synthesis than an equivalent overexpression of beta 1-adrenergic receptor, and manipulating the affinity of Gs alpha for adenylyl cyclase was a more potent regulator of cyclic AMP production. The model predicted that less than 40% of adenylyl cyclase molecules may be stimulated under maximal receptor activation, and an experimental protocol is suggested for validating this prediction. The model also predicted that the endogenous heat-stable protein kinase inhibitor may enhance basal cyclic AMP buffering by 68% and increasing the apparent Hill coefficient of protein kinase A activation from 1.0 to 2.0. Finally, phosphorylation of the L-type calcium channel and phospholamban were found sufficient to predict the dominant changes in myocyte contractility, including a 2.6x increase in systolic calcium (inotropy) and a 28% decrease in calcium half-relaxation time (lusitropy). By performing systems analysis, the consequences of molecular perturbations in the beta-adrenergic signaling network may be understood within the context of integrative cellular physiology.

Non-NASA Center

Advanced Reactor Designs Security Analysis, Risk, and Recommendations: Risks, Consequences, and Possible by-Design Mitigation Approaches Associated with Select Advanced Reactors

Next-generation advanced reactors (ARs) incorporate enhanced safety systems, have smaller source terms, and feature compact modular designs, which should lessen their collective risk profiles. However, to fully evaluate risk, security needs to be a part of the equation. Without taking security into consideration, safety systems and components in the new ARs may be vulnerable to sabotage. These base attributes, coupled with enhanced security features specific to AR design through sound engineering and security-by-design (SeBD), should provide developers and operators with lower inherent security risk profiles. Building security early into the AR design may remove or passively secure potential critical targets from an adversary’s reach , thereby increasing overall safety and security. An integrated approach and diverse design team that includes engineering, operations, and security experts are fundamental to building security into the design without sacrificing fundamental operational efficiencies and principles. The objective of this project was to evaluate the security and safety interfaces for five classes of reactors, identify potential security vulnerabilities of structures, systems, and components (SSC), and underscore the need to consider security alongside safety in the design o f these concepts. The five reactor classes evaluated in this project and presented in this report are molten-salt reactors (MSR), high temperature gas reactors (HTGR), sodium-fast reactors (SFR), advanced light-water reactors (ALWR), and microreactors. These designs were selected because they reflect the concepts that are closest to market deployment and have received significant resource investments from the public and private sector. This project assesses the inherent security risks posed by common classes of ARs, provides a methodology and framework to assess security along with safety, and offers an analysis of potential mitigation strategies that could be incorporated. For each AR technology, the SSCs that relate to radionuclide source safety functions are discussed to understand the SSC contribution to safety and relative importance in the protective strategy for the design. The assumptions that went into evaluating each reactor concept originated from generic publicly available nonproprietary information and should not directly be used to qualify an absolute risk profile nor to rank specific AR designs. Instead, the purpose of the analysis is to understand and compare the generic inherent security risks of different AR technologies.

98 - NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL

Myriad World Baseline: Global Geodemographic Estimates

The LandScan Myriad World Baseline (MWB) method produces global, residential (nighttime/home-location) gridded geodemographic estimates based on 5-year age/gender cohorts—at 30-arcsecond (≈1 km) resolution. MWB is designed to fill gaps where detailed, georeferenced survey data (e.g., Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS)) are missing or outdated, and to provide a baseline that can support human security analysis, including consequence assessment, “patterns of life” modeling, and scenario-based population futures. MWB’s workflow spatializes household-level age/gender characteristics from the GLOPOP-S dataset by conflating household and gridded expected relative wealth adapted from Global Gridded Relative Deprivation Index (GRDI), then adjusts them to a target year of interest. Age/gender estimates are then applied to harmonize lowest-administrative-level statistics with LandScan residential counts, yielding final geodemographic estimates. Two validation case studies are presented: Ghana (2021) and Tokyo/Kanagawa, Japan (2020), illustrating spatial variability in demographic cohorts and comparing MWB outputs to official gridded statistics. Results show close overall alignment relative to validation criteria including population pyramids and age-dependency ratios.

Tuccillo, Joe [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000259300943)

Approximate theory of large-amplitude wave propagation

An orbit perturbation procedure is applied to the description of monochromatic, large-amplitude, electrostatic plasma wave propagation. In the lowest-order approximation, untrapped electrons are assumed to follow constant-velocity orbits and trapped electrons are assumed to execute simple harmonic motion. The deviations of these orbits from the actual orbits are regarded as perturbations. The nonlinear damping rate and frequency shift are then obtained in terms of simple functions. The results are in good agreement with previous less approximate analyses. A significant feature of the analysis is that it treats a single wave by techniques previously applied to turbulent spectra. The analysis can consequently be extended to the case of a large-amplitude wave interacting with a lower-amplitude spectrum of waves.

Kim, H.

The global distribution of f/H and the barotropic response of the ocean

The barotropic response of the ocean over smoothly varying topography is directly related to the potential vorticity gradient (PVG). A global estimate of f/H and PVG has been constructed from a high-resolution digital topographic data base. Four different regimes of the barotropic response of the ocean are suggested by these maps. (1) In the tropical latitudes from 20 deg S to 20 deg N, the response will be similar to a flat-bottom Sverdrup regime. (2) In midlatitudes, north of 30 deg S, the response will be quasi-stationary, weak, and dominated by nonlocal forcing. (3) In a number of small regions throughout the midlatitudes in both hemispheres, the local response should be amplified; and wavelike motions may occur over a broader bandwidth of frequencies. (4) South of 30 deg S, the midocean ridge system becomes zonal and isolates several large regions within closed lines of f/H. In these regions, principally the abyssal plains of the southern ocean, the low-frequency barotropic response of the ocean may be wavelike in character and much stronger than the Sverdrup response. Consequently, this analysis suggessts that the southern ocean may have a stronger barotropic response to wind forcing than the other five major ocean basins.

Koblinsky, C. J.

Fine-Tuning the Accretion Disk Clock in Hercules X-1

RXTE ASM count rates from the X-ray pulsar Her X-1 began falling consistently during the late months of 2003. The source is undergoing another state transition similar to the anomalous low state of 1999. This new event has triggered observations from both space and ground-based observatories. In order to aid data interpretation and telescope scheduling, and to facilitate the phase-connection of cycles before and after the state transition, we have re-calculated the precession ephemeris using cycles over the last 3.5 years. We report that the source has displayed a different precession period since the last anomalous event. Additional archival data from CGRO suggests that each low state is accompanied by a change in precession period and that the subsequent period is correlated with accretion flux. Consequently our analysis reveals long-term accretion disk behaviour which is predicted by theoretical models of radiation-driven warping.

Still, M.

All-Sky Medium-Energy Gamma-Ray Observatory (AMEGO)

The gamma-ray energy range from a few hundred keV (kiloelectronvolts) to a few hundred MeV (megaelectronvolts) has remained largely unexplored since the pioneering but limited observations by COMPTEL (The Imaging Compton Telescope) on the CGRO (Compton Gamma Ray Observatory) (1991-2000). Fundamental astrophysics questions can be addressed by a mission in the MeV range, from astrophysical jets and extreme physics of compact objects to a large population of unidentified objects. Such a mission will also provide critical inputs for multimessenger astrophysics by identifying and exploring the astrophysical objects that produce gravitational waves and neutrinos. To address these questions, we are developing AMEGO: All-sky Medium Energy Gamma-ray Observatory, as a NASA probe-class mission, to investigate the energy range from 200 keV to greater than10 GeV with good energy (ranging from less than 1 percent at the low end to approximately 10 percent at the high end) and angular resolution (from 2 to 6 degrees depending on energy) and with sensitivity a factor of 20-50 better than previous instruments. Measurements at these energies are challenging, mainly due to the fact that two photon interaction processes, Compton scattering and pair production, compete. These interaction processes require different approaches in both detection and data analysis, and consequently in the instrument concept. AMEGO will be capable of measuring both Compton-scattering events at lower energies and pair-production events at higher energies. AMEGO will also have sensitivity to linear polarization of detected radiation at a level of 20 percent minimum detectable polarization from a source 1 percent of the Crab intensity, observed for 106 seconds. AMEGO will be operating mainly in scanning (discovery) mode with a field-of-view of 2.5 sr (Special Relativity) (20 percent of the sky observation any time), with the capability to be pointed to particular regions of interest..

Moiseev, Alexander

The expanding network of mineral chemistry throughout earth history reveals global shifts in crustal chemistry during the Proterozoic.

Earth surface redox conditions are intimately linked to the co-evolution of the geosphere and biosphere. Minerals provide a record of Earth’s evolving surface and interior chemistry in geologic time due to many diferent processes (e.g. tectonic, volcanic, sedimentary, oxidative, etc.). Here, we show how the bipartite network of minerals and their shared constituent elements expanded and evolved over geologic time. To further investigate network expansion over time, we derive and apply a novel metric (weighted mineral element electronegativity coefcient of variation; wMEECV) to quantify intra-mineral electronegativity variation with respect to redox. We fnd that element electronegativity and hard soft acid base (HSAB) properties are central factors in mineral redox chemistry under a wide range of conditions. Global shifts in mineral element electronegativity and HSAB associations represented by wMEECV changes at 1.8 and 0.6 billion years ago align with decreased continental elevation followed by the transition from the intermediate ocean and glaciation eras to postglaciation, increased atmospheric oxygen in the Phanerozoic, and enhanced continental weathering. Consequently, network analysis of mineral element electronegativity and HSAB properties reveal that orogenic activity, evolving redox state of the mantle, planetary oxygenation, and climatic transitions directly impacted the evolving chemical complexity of Earth’s crust.

Eli K. Moore

From Data to Knowledge: A Graph-Based Reliability Approach to Assess System Health

With the goal of maximizing plant reliability and availability, complex systems such as nuclear power plants continuously monitor and record the performance and the health status of many components, assets, and systems. Such data may take the form of online monitoring data, condition reports, and maintenance reports and it carries the potential to provide system engineers with insights into anomalous behaviors or degradation trends as well as the possible causes behind them and to predict their direct consequences. The analysis of such data poses however few challenges. While some of these challenges are technical in nature (i.e., data are often distributed over several physical servers or databases), others are conceptual in nature (i.e., data elements come in different formats, numeric or textual), and measured values have different scales (e.g., vibration spectra and oil temperature). This paper directly tackles these challenges, and it focuses on the integration of all these data elements in order to assist plant system engineers in analyzing component, assets, and systems performances and optimize maintenance activities. This is performed by 1) extracting knowledge from textual data via technical language processing methods, and 2) quantifying system, asset, and component health from numeric condition-based data. We rely on model-based system engineering (MBSE) models of systems and assets to identify their architecture and functional (i.e., cause and effect) relations. Numeric and textual data elements are then associated with an MBSE graph element, based on their nature. This bonding of MBSE models and data elements constitutes a first-of-its-kind knowledge graph of a nuclear power plants system, with data elements being organized in a structured manner that enables system engineers to identify cause-effect trends in data elements and carry out appropriate actions in response.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

A Multi-scale Approach to Urban Thermal Analysis

An environmental consequence of urbanization is the urban heat island effect, a situation where urban areas are warmer than surrounding rural areas. The urban heat island phenomenon results from the replacement of natural landscapes with impervious surfaces such as concrete and asphalt and is linked to adverse economic and environmental impacts. In order to better understand the urban microclimate, a greater understanding of the urban thermal pattern (UTP), including an analysis of the thermal properties of individual land covers, is needed. This study examines the UTP by means of thermal land cover response for the Salt Lake City, Utah, study area at two scales: 1) the community level, and 2) the regional or valleywide level. Airborne ATLAS (Advanced Thermal Land Applications Sensor) data, a high spatial resolution (10-meter) dataset appropriate for an environment containing a concentration of diverse land covers, are used for both land cover and thermal analysis at the community level. The ATLAS data consist of 15 channels covering the visible, near-IR, mid-IR and thermal-IR wavelengths. At the regional level Landsat TM data are used for land cover analysis while the ATLAS channel 13 data are used for the thermal analysis. Results show that a heat island is evident at both the community and the valleywide level where there is an abundance of impervious surfaces. ATLAS data perform well in community level studies in terms of land cover and thermal exchanges, but other, more coarse-resolution data sets are more appropriate for large-area thermal studies. Thermal response per land cover is consistent at both levels, which suggests potential for urban climate modeling at multiple scales.

Gluch, Renne

Nonlinear rotordynamics analysis

Three analytic consequences of the nonlinear Jeffcott equations are examined. The primary application of these analyses is directed toward understanding the excessive vibrations recorded in the Liquid Oxygen (LOX) pump of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) during hot firing ground testing. The first task is to provide bounds on the coefficients of the equations which delimit the two cases of numerical solution as a circle or an annulus. The second task examines the mathematical generalization to multiple forcing functions, which includes the special problems of mass imbalance, side force, rubbing, and combination of these forces. Finally, stability and boundedness of the steady-state solutions is discussed and related to the corresponding linear problem.

Day, W. B.

Consideration of Collision "Consequence" in Satellite Conjunction Assessment and Risk Analysis

Classic risk management theory requires the assessment of both likelihood and consequence of deleterious events. Satellite conjunction risk assessment has produced a highly-developed theory for assessing collision likelihood but holds a completely static solution for collision consequence, treating all potential collisions as essentially equally worrisome. This may be true for the survival of the protected asset, but the amount of debris produced by the potential collision, and therefore the degree to which the orbital corridor may be compromised, can vary greatly among satellite conjunctions. This study leverages present work on satellite collision modeling to develop a method by which it can be estimated, to a particular confidence level, whether a particular collision is likely to produce a relatively large or relatively small amount of resultant debris and how this datum might alter conjunction remediation decisions. The more general question of orbital corridor protection is also addressed, and a preliminary framework presented by which both collision likelihood and consequence can be jointly considered in the risk assessment process.

Hejduk, M.

Fabrication Materials for a Closed Cycle Brayton Turbine Wheel

A multidisciplinary analysis of a radial inflow turbine rotor is presented. This work couples high-fidelity fluid, structural, and thermal simulations in a seamless multidisciplinary analysis to investigate the consequences of material selection. This analysis extends multidisciplinary techniques previously demonstrated on rocket turbopumps and hypersonic engines. Since no design information is available for the anticipated Brayton rotating machinery, an existing rotor design (the Brayton Rotating Unit (BRU)) was used in the analysis. Steady state analysis results of a notional turbine rotor indicate that stress levels are easily manageable at the turbine inlet temperature, and stress levels anticipated using either superalloys or ceramics.

Khandelwal, Suresh

Coupled-mode analysis of phase-locked injection laser arrays

A coupled-mode analysis has been developed to describe the output of phase-locked injection laser arrays. It is shown that an array of emitters with weak coupling can only operate in a set of discrete modes determined by the number of and the spacing of the emitters. The interaction between emitters leads to a splitting of the common frequency of operation that can be estimated from the coupling strength. The coupled-mode analysis is compared to calculations based on simple diffraction theory. A consequence of the analysis is an explanation for the commonly observed discrepancy between experimentally observed far-field lobe widths and those predicted by simple diffraction theory.

Butler, J. K.

Utility-Scale Operational Consequences for Solar Grid Services

This report delves into the critical aspects of grid services provided by solar inverter-based resources (IBRs), with an emphasis on the evolving landscape of microgrids, virtual power plants (VPPs), aggregators, and distributed energy resource management systems (DERMS). As the energy sector undergoes a transformative shift towards more decentralized and resilient grid architectures, understanding the multifaceted risks associated with these technologies becomes paramount. The report categorizes these risks into organizational, technical, and procedural domains, providing a thorough risk assessment framework that stakeholders can utilize to anticipate and mitigate potential issues. In addressing the increasing complexity of grid interconnections, the report highlights the importance of Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE). By embedding engineering controls and cybersecurity measures into the early stages of system design, this approach aims to fortify grid infrastructure against emerging cyber threats. The analysis includes an exploration of best practices and strategies for integrating CIE principles to enhance grid security and resilience. To provide practical insights, the report conducts a detailed consequence analysis of various grid services and cyber mitigations that can be applied through the interconnection process. This analysis evaluates the potential impacts of different failure modes and vulnerabilities, offering a clear understanding of the consequences that could arise from disruptions within the energy grid. The findings are further enriched by a series of case studies that illustrate real-world scenarios and lessons learned from past incidents. Through this comprehensive examination of grid services and their criticality, the report aims to prepare industry professionals with the knowledge and tools necessary to navigate the complexities of modern energy systems. By providing a comprehensive approach that includes risk assessment, cybersecurity, and consequence analysis, solar stakeholders can more effectively guarantee the reliability, efficiency, and security of the energy grid.

14 SOLAR ENERGY