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Introduction to the IMPACT Probabilistic Risk and Tradespace Analysis Tool for Medical System Design

Background: Probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) is a method for estimating risk in complex engineered systems that, at a basic level, focuses on what can go wrong and the likelihood and consequences of those occurrences. NASA has used PRA as an integral component of medical system risk estimation and design for spaceflight. IMPACT (Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces) is a novel tool to meet these goals for exploration missions. Overview: IMPACT performs hundreds of thousands of Monte Carlo simulations of missions to build aggregate pictures of medical risk. These simulations are based on 120 possible medical conditions (the IMPACT Condition List) selected in a consensus-based process because they are of highest likelihood and/or consequence for exploration spaceflight. The conditions are then tied to clinical capabilities which can be used for management (e.g., inserting an IV) and then to over 600 specific resources needed to deliver a capability (e.g., an angiocath or an ultrasound). Different mission profiles can be simulated with user-specified inputs such as mission duration, destination, number of crew and pre-existing medical conditions, and EVA frequency. While the IMPACT evidence base is designed for exploration environments, these user inputs allow the tool to be used across a broad range of missions. IMPACT’s primary outcome metrics include loss of crew life (LOCL, a measure of in-flight mortality due to medical conditions), need for evacuation (RTDC, return to definitive care), and crew disability (TTL, task time lost based on how medical conditions impact the ability to perform over 1000 specific exploration mission crew tasks). In addition to modeling medical risk, IMPACT also accepts user-specified constraints, such as limitations of mass or volume, and will output a recommended clinical capability set and specific medical resources that meet the mission constraints. Discussion: This abstract will provide an introduction to IMPACT and describe the nature of the underlying medical evidence. It will also detail potential use cases for how this tool can be utilized by NASA or commercial spaceflight providers.

Ben Easter

Multidisciplinary propulsion simulation using the numerical propulsion system simulator (NPSS)

Implementing new technology in aerospace propulsion systems is becoming prohibitively expensive. One of the major contributions to the high cost is the need to perform many large scale system tests. The traditional design analysis procedure decomposes the engine into isolated components and focuses attention on each single physical discipline (e.g., fluid for structural dynamics). Consequently, the interactions that naturally occur between components and disciplines can be masked by the limited interactions that occur between individuals or teams doing the design and must be uncovered during expensive engine testing. This overview will discuss a cooperative effort of NASA, industry, and universities to integrate disciplines, components, and high performance computing into a Numerical propulsion System Simulator (NPSS).

Claus, Russel W.

Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) Guide for States

The Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) Guide for States provides state energy offices, public utility commissions, and partner organizations with a structured framework for integrating cyber-resilient engineering practices into energy planning, grantmaking, interconnection processes, and workforce development. As grid digitalization and the adoption of distributed energy resources accelerate, states face expanding cyber-physical risks that traditional cybersecurity measures alone cannot fully address. CIE offers a proactive, consequence-focused engineering methodology that emphasizes eliminating or mitigating high-impact failure modes through design, physical controls, and operational safeguards. The guide outlines the 12 core CIE principles, demonstrates their application through state-focused use cases—including grant evaluation rubrics, interconnection reviews, allow-list development, and training programs—and provides practical tools such as scoring frameworks, impact assessment methods, and implementation checklists. It also highlights pathways for state–utility collaboration and opportunities for technical assistance from national laboratories. By adopting CIE, states can enhance grid reliability, reduce lifecycle costs, strengthen supply-chain assurance, and foster a security-aware engineering culture that aligns with broader resilience and modernization goals. November 2025

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) Guide for States

The Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) Guide for States provides state energy offices, public utility commissions, and partner organizations with a structured framework for integrating cyber-resilient engineering practices into energy planning, grantmaking, interconnection processes, and workforce development. As grid digitalization and the adoption of distributed energy resources accelerate, states face expanding cyber-physical risks that traditional cybersecurity measures alone cannot fully address. CIE offers a proactive, consequence-focused engineering methodology that emphasizes eliminating or mitigating high-impact failure modes through design, physical controls, and operational safeguards. The guide outlines the 12 core CIE principles, demonstrates their application through state-focused use cases—including grant evaluation rubrics, interconnection reviews, allow-list development, and training programs—and provides practical tools such as scoring frameworks, impact assessment methods, and implementation checklists. It also highlights pathways for state–utility collaboration and opportunities for technical assistance from national laboratories. By adopting CIE, states can enhance grid reliability, reduce lifecycle costs, strengthen supply-chain assurance, and foster a security-aware engineering culture that aligns with broader resilience and modernization goals. November 2025

29 - ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY

The Unintended Consequences of Focusing on Human Error (And How You Can Help)

The literature on human performance is rich with findings of cognitive failures and methods to identify, label, and measure them. In many real-world contexts, however, outcomes are driven far more by successful than failed cognition. Designers of systems intended for human use, in an effort to be “data driven,” rely upon findings from the cognitive performance literature to inform their system designs. When most available data are about human error, data-driven designs focus on the human primarily as a source of failure. Designs intended to support or replace humans often fail to acknowledge or understand the capabilities that humans routinely contribute to successful performance. Consequently, designs intended to “protect” the system from “error-prone” humans can design-out the capability for the human to effectively intervene or adapt. The development of paradigms to study successful human performance represents a significant and largely untapped opportunity for research in cognition.

Jon Holbrook

Demystification of Processes that Effect Prioritization of Space Radiation Element Research

In an effort to demystify how research funding priorities are established , the Space Radiation Element will present an introduction to the Human Space Risk Board (HSRB) framework that is that used to inform Human System Risk and can be found at https://humanresearchroadmap.nasa.gov/Risks/. These risks are based on the consequences of hazards (space radiation, altered gravity, isolation & confinement, distance from earth and hostile/closed environment) a human body is exposed to during spaceflight. The HSRB regularly evaluates risks to humans in space which includes updating the knowledge base to reflect emerging research, the development of effective countermeasures, and evolving operational approaches toward addressing those risks. To increase understanding and clarity, this talk will step through how risks (with the focus on Risk of Radiation Carcinogenesis) are assigned a rating (and color code) based on design reference missions, likelihood, and consequence. Further, The Space Radiation Element will discuss how risks, including the magnitude/rating, required technical deliverables, and expected products from current research efforts affect our element strategy and prioritization of research. In addition, navigation of the publicly available www.nasa.gov/hrp, will be demonstrated to inform principal investigators where this information can be readily accessed. Our primary objectives for this presentation/demonstration are to demystify The Space Radiation Element’s internal processes and to educate researchers concerning publicly available documents that can be used to better align their proposed objectives with Element priorities.

J A Zawaski

Conjugate (solid/fluid) computational fluid dynamics analysis of the space shuttle solid rocket motor nozzle/case and case field joints

Three-dimensional, conjugate (solid/fluid) heat transfer analyses of new designs of the Solid Rocket Motor (SRM) nozzle/case and case field joints are described. The main focus was to predict the consequences of multiple rips (or debonds) in the ambient cure adhesive packed between the nozzle/case joint surfaces and the bond line between the mating field joint surfaces. The models calculate the transient temperature responses of the various materials neighboring postulated flow/leakpaths into, past, and out from the nozzle/case primary O-ring cavity and case field capture O-ring cavity. These results were used to assess if the design was failsafe (i.e., no potential O-ring erosion) and reusable (i.e., no excessive steel temperatures). The models are adaptions and extensions of the general purpose PHOENICS fluid dynamics code. A non-orthogonal coordinate system was employed and 11,592 control cells for the nozzle/case and 20,088 for the case field joints are used with non-uniform distribution. Physical properties of both fluid and solids are temperature dependent. A number of parametric studies were run for both joints with results showing temperature limits for reuse for the steel case on the nozzle joint being exceeded while the steel case temperatures for the field joint were not. O-ring temperatures for the nozzle joint predicted erosion while for the field joint they did not.

Doran, D.

Supersonics Project - Airport Noise Tech Challenge

The Airport Noise Tech Challenge research effort under the Supersonics Project is reviewed. While the goal of "Improved supersonic jet noise models validated on innovative nozzle concepts" remains the same, the success of the research effort has caused the thrust of the research to be modified going forward in time. The main activities from FY06-10 focused on development and validation of jet noise prediction codes. This required innovative diagnostic techniques to be developed and deployed, extensive jet noise and flow databases to be created, and computational tools to be developed and validated. Furthermore, in FY09-10 systems studies commissioned by the Supersonics Project showed that viable supersonic aircraft were within reach using variable cycle engine architectures if exhaust nozzle technology could provide 3-5dB of suppression. The Project then began to focus on integrating the technologies being developed in its Tech Challenge areas to bring about successful system designs. Consequently, the Airport Noise Tech Challenge area has shifted efforts from developing jet noise prediction codes to using them to develop low-noise nozzle concepts for integration into supersonic aircraft. The new plan of research is briefly presented by technology and timelines.

Bridges, James

Cyber-Informed Engineering: Incorporating CIE into Engineering Curricula

Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) is an engineering approach that mitigates the consequences of cyber risk to critical infrastructure by integrating engineered controls into system design and operation. CIE-focused education is necessary to prepare future engineers and technicians to understand and mitigate digital risk in modern engineered systems. This session explores how universities can incorporate CIE into their curricula, provides examples of how existing universities are already leveraging CIE in their programs, and highlights resources to support adoption.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS

Validation of a nonintrusive optical technique for the measurement of liquid mass distribution in a two-phase spray

This work is the continuation of an optical technique development program initiated as part of the 1992 Summer Faculty Fellowship Program. The 1992 work consisted of the formulation and implementation of a technique ivolving the spatial deconvolution of fluorescence data from a uniformly illuminated, seeded densed spray to obtain quantitative measurements of the liquid density profiles. This measurement approach largely overcomes substantial scattering problems associated with other optical approaches for two-phase flows. However, to apply this measurement approach with confidence to unknown flows, the technique must be validated. Consequently, technique validation using classical grid patternator techniques has been focus of the current work. This work has included the design and construction of a patternator rig and the implementation of a test program designed for the comparison of patternator data with the deconvolved optical data. The flow field used for the validation is the plume of an axisymetric swirl coaxial LOX injector being considered for use in the Space Transportation System Main Engine. The flow facility is an improved version of the test rig which was constructed in 1992 for the initial technique development. This report includes a brief description of the optical measurement technique and the patternator rig and a presentation of the data comparisons.

Hartfield, Roy, Jr.

Disruption modelling for engineering and physics design of ST-E1 fusion power plant

Plasma disruptions represent a critical challenge for high-performance tokamak operations, as they can compromise machine integrity and reduce operational availability. Although future fusion devices essentially need to incorporate strategies to minimise disruption occurrence, complete avoidance remains unattainable. Consequently, assessing and characterising unmitigated disruption consequences is fundamental for the design and qualification of next-generation fusion power plants. This work supports the pre-conceptual design of ST-E1, a low aspect-ratio Tokamak Fusion Power Plant developed by Tokamak Energy Ltd., by presenting a comprehensive disruption modelling approach applied across different design stages. The methodology integrates both physics and engineering considerations to evaluate the impact of disruptions on machine performance and structural integrity. From an engineering perspective, several ST-E1 layout options were analysed to investigate the electromagnetic response of key components under disruption-induced loads, enabling comparison between alternative design solutions. On the physics side, a broad set of disruption scenarios was explored, scanning operational space parameters, plasma-material interactions, and associated thermal loads. Furthermore, the study examined variations in disruption behaviour arising from different reference equilibria, focusing on a range starting from Double Null to Single Null configurations, reflecting the increasing up-down asymmetry consequences. The results reveal significant contrasts in plasma dynamics and structures electromagnetic behaviour between configurations, highlighting the importance of disruption modelling in guiding design choices. These analyses have proven instrumental in shaping ST-E1 development, offering critical insights for mitigating risks and optimising future fusion power plant designs.

Borowiec, Katarzyna [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000335911739

Using G4FETs as a Data Router for In-Plane Crossing of Signal Paths

Theoretical analysis and some experiments have demonstrated that siliconon- insulator (SOI) 4-gate transistors the type known as G(exp 4)FETs could be efficiently used for in-plane crossing of signal paths. Much of the effort of designing very-large-scale integrated (VLSI) circuits is focused on area-efficient routing of signals. The main source of difficulty in VLSI signal routing is the requirement to prevent crossing, in the same plane, of wires that are meant to be kept electrically insulated from each other. Consequently, it often becomes necessary to design and build VLSI circuits in multiple layers with vias (connections between conductors in different layers at selected locations). Suitable devices that would prevent, or at least sufficiently suppress, undesired electrical coupling (cross-talk) between wires crossing in the same plane would enable compact, simpler implementation complex interconnection networks with in-plane crossings that, heretofore, have not been possible in VLSI circuitry. The use of G4FETs as in-plane signal-crossing devices or routers, in combination with the use of G(exp 4)FETs as universal programmable logic gates, would create opportunities for reducing complexity in VLSI design.

Fijany, Amir

A Study of Business Incubators: Models, Best Practices, and Recommendations for NASA and Florida

This study was conducted to provide NASA-Kennedy Space Center with information and recommendations to support establishing one or more technology-based business incubators In Florida. The study involved assembling information about incubators: why they succeed, why they fail, how they are organized, and what services they provide. Consequently, this study focuses on widely-recognized "best practices," needed to establish successful technology- based business incubators. The findings are used to optimize the design and implementation of one or more technology-based business incubators to be established in Florida. Recommendations reflect both the essential characteristics of successful incubators and the optimal business demographics in Florida. Appendix A provides a fuller description of the objectives of the study. Technology-based business incubators are an increasing catalyst of new business development across the USi Incubators focus on providing entrepreneurs and small start-up firms with a wide array of support services necessary to bring forth new products and processes based on technologies developed in the nation's federal and private laboratories and universities. Appendix B provides extensive discussion of findings relative to technology- based business incubators.

Source record

Can Cell to Cell Thermal Runaway Propagation be Prevented in a Li-ion Battery Module?

Increasing cell spacing decreased adjacent cell damage center dotElectrically connected adjacent cells drained more than physically adjacent cells center dotRadiant barrier prevents propagation when fully installed between BP cells center dotBP cells vent rapidly and expel contents at 100% SOC -Slower vent with flame/smoke at 50% -Thermal runaway event typically occurs at 160 degC center dotLG cells vent but do not expel contents -Thermal runaway event typically occurs at 200 degC center dotSKC LFP modules did not propagate; fuses on negative terminal of cell may provide a benefit in reducing cell to cell damage propagation. New requirement in NASA-Battery Safety Requirements document: JSC 20793 Rev C 5.1.5.1 Requirements - Thermal Runaway Propagation a. For battery designs greater than a 80-Wh energy employing high specific energy cells (greater than 80 watt-hours/kg, for example, lithium-ion chemistries) with catastrophic failure modes, the battery shall be evaluated to ascertain the severity of a worst-case single-cell thermal runaway event and the propensity of the design to demonstrate cell-to-cell propagation in the intended application and environment. NASA has traditionally addressed the threat of thermal runaway incidents in its battery deployments through comprehensive prevention protocols. This prevention-centered approach has included extensive screening for manufacturing defects, as well as robust battery management controls that prevent abuse-induced runaway even in the face of multiple system failures. This focused strategy has made the likelihood of occurrence of such an event highly improbable. b. The evaluation shall include all necessary analysis and test to quantify the severity (consequence) of the event in the intended application and environment as well as to identify design modifications to the battery or the system that could appreciably reduce that severity. In addition to prevention protocols, programs developing battery designs with catastrophic failure modes should take the steps necessary to assess the severity of a possible thermal runaway event. Programs should assess whether there are reasonable design changes that could appreciably affect the severity of the outcome. Evaluation should include environmental effects to surrounding hardware (i.e., temperature, pressure, shock), contamination effects due to any expelled contaminates, and venting propulsive effects when venting overboard.

Jeevarajan, Judith

Workflow Agents vs. Expert Systems: Problem Solving Methods in Work Systems Design

During the 1980s, a community of artificial intelligence researchers became interested in formalizing problem solving methods as part of an effort called "second generation expert systems" (2nd GES). How do the motivations and results of this research relate to building tools for the workplace today? We provide an historical review of how the theory of expertise has developed, a progress report on a tool for designing and implementing model-based automation (Brahms), and a concrete example how we apply 2nd GES concepts today in an agent-based system for space flight operations (OCAMS). Brahms incorporates an ontology for modeling work practices, what people are doing in the course of a day, characterized as "activities." OCAMS was developed using a simulation-to-implementation methodology, in which a prototype tool was embedded in a simulation of future work practices. OCAMS uses model-based methods to interactively plan its actions and keep track of the work to be done. The problem solving methods of practice are interactive, employing reasoning for and through action in the real world. Analogously, it is as if a medical expert system were charged not just with interpreting culture results, but actually interacting with a patient. Our perspective shifts from building a "problem solving" (expert) system to building an actor in the world. The reusable components in work system designs include entire "problem solvers" (e.g., a planning subsystem), interoperability frameworks, and workflow agents that use and revise models dynamically in a network of people and tools. Consequently, the research focus shifts so "problem solving methods" include ways of knowing that models do not fit the world, and ways of interacting with other agents and people to gain or verify information and (ultimately) adapt rules and procedures to resolve problematic situations.

Clancey, William J.

Flight Testing of Hypersonic Airbreathing Propulsion for Developing Computational Design Technology

The objective of this paper is to present and discuss a scenario and the requirements for flight testing of hypersonic airbreathing propulsion leading to the development of computational design technology. Flight Testing for this development is a significant part of a triad/synergistic, design approach which integrates computations, flight testing, and ground testing. These three complementary, design developmental tools have various capabilities and limitations. An incremental approach is necessary to use and to develop these tools effectively and efficiently. This computational technology must be developed keeping in focus the aerospace plane that is to be developed. The criteria for selecting the right plane are presented and consequently, the appropriate flight tests are identified. Two conceptual, flight-test systems are suggested considering the following: (1) the relevant, lessons learned from previous and current United States hypersonic programs, from the Apollo program, from the Space Shuttle program, and from the space station program; (2) the current need for a low risk, affordable access to space; and (3) the design challenge for hypersonic airbreathing propulsion testing. How these systems may be used for developing the computational design technology is described. The requirements for conducting propulsion- design computations, sources of uncertainties in these computations, and a guide for establishing the credibility of these computations are also presented.

Mehta, Unmeel B.

Developing time-resolved x-ray diffraction diagnostics at the National Ignition Facility (invited)

As part of a program to measure phase transition timescales in materials under dynamic compression, we have designed new x-ray imaging diagnostics to record multiple x-ray diffraction measurements during a single laser-driven experiment. Our design places several ns-gated hybrid CMOS (hCMOS) sensors within a few cm of a laser-driven target. The sensors must be protected from an extremely harsh environment, including debris, electromagnetic pulses, and unconverted laser light. Another key challenge is reducing the x-ray background relative to the faint diffraction signal. Building on the success of our predecessor (Target Diffraction In Situ), we implemented a staged approach to platform development. First, we built a demonstration diagnostic (Gated Diffraction Development Diagnostic) with two hCMOS sensors to confirm we could adequately protect them from the harsh environment and also acquire acceptable diffraction data. This allowed the team to quickly assess the risks and address the most significant challenges. Here, we also collected scientifically useful data during development. Leveraging what we learned, we recently developed a much more ambitious instrument (Flexible Imaging Diffraction Diagnostic for Laser Experiments) that can field up to eight hCMOS sensors in a flexible geometry and participate in back-to-back shots at the National Ignition Facility (NIF). The design also allows for future iterations, such as faster hCMOS sensors and an embedded x-ray streak camera. The enhanced capabilities of the new instrument required a much more complex design, and the unexpected issues encountered on the first few shots at NIF remind us that complexity has consequences. Our progress in addressing these challenges is described herein, as is our current focus on improving data quality by reducing x-ray background and quantifying the uncertainties of our diffraction measurements.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Vectorization of a particle code used in the simulation of rarefied hypersonic flow

A limitation of the direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method is that it does not allow efficient use of vector architectures that predominate in current supercomputers. Consequently, the problems that can be handled are limited to those of one- and two-dimensional flows. This work focuses on a reformulation of the DSMC method with the objective of designing a procedure that is optimized to the vector architectures found on machines such as the Cray-2. In addition, it focuses on finding a better balance between algorithmic complexity and the total number of particles employed in a simulation so that the overall performance of a particle simulation scheme can be greatly improved. Simulations of the flow about a 3D blunt body are performed with 10 to the 7th particles and 4 x 10 to the 5th mesh cells. Good statistics are obtained with time averaging over 800 time steps using 4.5 h of Cray-2 single-processor CPU time.

Baganoff, D.