Impact of SMAP Soil Moisture Assimilation on Numerical Weather Forecasts over the Contiguous United States and East Africa
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Twenty-six years of lightning data were paired with over 68,000 lightning-initiated wildfire (LIW) reports to understand lightning flash characteristics responsible for ignition in between 1995 and 2020. Results indicate that 92% of LIW were started by negative cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning flashes and 57% were single stroke flashes. Moreover, 62% of LIW reports did not have a positive CG within 10 km of the start location, contrary to the science literature’s suggestion that positive CG flashes are a dominant fire-starting mechanism. Nearly 1/3rd of wildfire events were holdovers, meaning one or more days elapsed between lightning occurrence and fire report. However, fires that were reported less than a day after lightning occurrence statistically burned more acreage. Peak current was not found to be a statistically significant delineator between fire starters and non-fire starters for -CGs but was for positive CGs. Results highlighted the need for reassessing the role of positive CG lightning and subsequently long continuing current in wildfire ignition started by lightning. One potential outcome of this study’s results is the development of real-time tools to identify ignition potential during lightning events to aid in fire mitigation efforts.
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Simulated climates using numerical atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) have been shown to be highly sensitive to the fraction of GCM grid area assumed to be wetted during rain events. The model hydrologic cycle and land-surface water and energy balance are influenced by the parameter bar-kappa, which is the dimensionless fractional wetted area for GCM grids. Hourly precipitation records for over 1700 precipitation stations within the contiguous United States are used to obtain observation-based estimates of fractional wetting that exhibit regional and seasonal variations. The spatial parameter bar-kappa is estimated from the temporal raingauge data using conditional probability relations. Monthly bar-kappa values are estimated for rectangular grid areas over the contiguous United States as defined by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies 4 deg x 5 deg GCM. A bias in the estimates is evident due to the unavoidably sparse raingauge network density, which causes some storms to go undetected by the network. This bias is corrected by deriving the probability of a storm escaping detection by the network. A Monte Carlo simulation study is also conducted that consists of synthetically generated storm arrivals over an artificial grid area. It is used to confirm the bar-kappa estimation procedure and to test the nature of the bias and its correction. These monthly fractional wetting estimates, based on the analysis of station precipitation data, provide an observational basis for assigning the influential parameter bar-kappa in GCM land-surface hydrology parameterizations.
A geosynchronous satellite system capable of providing many channels of digital audio radio service (DARS) to mobile platforms within the contiguous United States using S-band radio frequencies is being implemented. The system is designed uniquely to mitigate both multipath fading and outages from physical blockage in the transmission path by use of satellite spatial diversity in combination with radio frequency and time diversity. The system also employs a satellite orbital geometry wherein all mobile platforms in the contiguous United States have elevation angles greater than 20 deg to both of the diversity satellites. Since implementation of the satellite system will require three years, an emulation has been performed using terrestrial facilities in order to allow evaluation of DARS capabilities in advance of satellite system operations. The major objective of the emulation was to prove the feasibility of broadcasting from satellites 30 channels of CD quality programming using S-band frequencies to an automobile equipped with a small disk antenna and to obtain quantitative performance data on S-band propagation in a satellite spatial diversity system.
The mid and thermal infrared (MTIR) for the Earth surface is defined between 3 and 14µm. In the outer solar system, objects are colder and their Planck response shifts towards longer wavelengths. Hence for these objects (e.g. icy moons, polar caps, comets, Europa), the thermal IR definition usually stretches out to 50µm and beyond. Spectroscopy has been a key part of this scientific exploration because of its ability to remotely determine elemental and mineralogical composition. Many key gas species such as methane, ammonia, sulfur, etc. also have vibrational bands which show up in the thermal infrared spectrum above the background response. Over the past few decades, the Jet Propulsion Laboratory has been building up a portfolio of technology to capture the MTIR for various scientific applications. Three recent sensors are briefly reviewed: The airborne Hyperspectral thermal emission spectrometer (HyTES), the ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS) and Mars Climate Sounder (MCS)/DIVINER. Each of these sensors utilize a different technology to provide a remote sensing product based on MTIR science. For example, HyTES is a push-brooming hyperspectral imager which utilizes a large format quantum well infrared photodetector (QWIP). The goal is to transition this to a new complementary barrier infrared photodetector (CBIRD) with a similar long wave cut-off and increased sensitivity. ECOSTRESS is a push-whisk Mercury Cadmium Telluride (MCT) based high speed, multi-band, imager which will eventually observe and characterize plant/vegetation functionality and stress index from the International Space Station (ISS) across the contiguous United States (CONUS). MCS/DIVINER utilizes thermopile technology to capture the thermal emission from the polar caps and shadow regions of the moon. Each sensor utilizes specific JPL technology to capture unique science. similar long wave cut-off and increased sensitivity. ECOSTRESS is a push-whisk Mercury Cadmium Telluride (MCT) based high speed, multi-band, imager which will eventually observe and characterize plant/vegetation functionality and stress index from the International Space Station (ISS) across the contiguous United States (CONUS). MCS/DIVINER utilizes thermopile technology to capture the thermal emission from the polar caps and shadow regions of the moon. Each sensor utilizes specific JPL technology to capture unique science.
Simulated present and future air quality is compared for the years 2006e2010 and 2048e2052 over the contiguous United States (CONUS) using the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. Regionally downscaled present and future climate results are developed using GISS and the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model. Present and future emissions are estimated using MARKAL 9R model. O3 and PM(sub 2.5) sensitivities to precursor emissions for the years 2010 and 2050 are calculated using CMAQDDM (Direct Decoupled Method). We find major improvements in future U.S. air quality including generally decreased MDA8 (maximum daily 8-hr average O3) mixing ratios and PM(sub 2.5) concentrations and reduced frequency of NAAQS O3 standard exceedances in most major U.S. cities. The Eastern and Pacific U.S. experience the largest reductions in summertime seasonal average MDA8 (up to 12 ppb) with localized decreases in the 4th highest MDA8 of the year, decreasing by up to 25 ppb. Results from a Climate Penalty (CP) scenario isolate the impact of climate change on air quality and show that future climate change tends to increase O3 mixing ratios in some regions of the U.S., with climate change causing increases of over 10 ppb in the annual 4th highest MDA8 in Los Angeles. Seasonal average PM(sub 2.5) decreases (2-4 microgram m(exp -3)) over the Eastern U.S. are accounted for by decreases in sulfate and nitrate concentrations resulting from reduced mobile and point source emissions of NO(sub x) and SO(sub x).
Observations have well established that aerosols from various sources in Asia, Europe, and Africa can travel across the Pacific and reach the contiguous United States (U.S.) at least on episodic bases throughout a year, with a maximum import in spring. The imported aerosol not only can serve as an additional source to regional air pollution (e.g., direct input), but also can influence regional air quality through the aerosol-cloud-radiation (ACR) interactions that change local and regional meteorology. This study assessed impacts of the transpacific aerosol on air quality, focusing on surface ozone and PM2.5, over the U.S. using the NASA Unified Weather Research Forecast model. Based on the results of 3- month (April to June of 2010) simulations, the impact of direct input (as an additional source) of transpacific aerosol caused an increase of surface PM2.5 concentration by approximately 1.5 micro-g/cu m over the west coast and about 0.5 micro-g/cu m over the east coast of the U.S. By influencing key meteorological processes through the ACR interactions, the transpacific aerosol exerted a significant effect on both surface PM2.5 (+/-6 micro-g/cu m3) and ozone (+/-12 ppbv) over the central and eastern U.S. This suggests that the transpacific transport of aerosol could either improve or deteriorate local air quality and complicate local effort toward the compliance with the U.S. National Ambient Air Quality Standards.
During the 2019 Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments and Air Quality (FIREX-AQ) study, the NASA DC-8 carried out in situ chemical measurements in smoke plumes emitted from wildfires and agricultural fires in the contiguous United States. The DC-8 payload included a modified proton-transfer-reaction time-of-flight mass spectrometer (PTR-ToF-MS) for the fast measurement of gaseous ammonia (NH 3 ) and a high-resolution time-of-flight aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) for the fast measurement of submicron particulate ammonium (NH 4 + ). We herein report data collected in smoke plumes emitted from 6 wildfires in the Western United States, 2 prescribed grassland fires in the Central United States, 1 prescribed forest fire in the Southern United States, and 66 small agricultural fires in the Southeastern United States. Smoke plumes contained double to triple digit ppb levels of NH 3 . In the wildfire plumes, a significant fraction of NH 3 had already been converted to NH 4 + at the time of sampling (≥2 h after emission). Substantial amounts of NH 4 + were also detected in freshly emitted smoke from corn and rice field fires. We herein present a comprehensive set of emission factors of NH 3 and NH x , with NH x = NH 3 + NH 4 + . Average NH 3 and NH x emission factors for wildfires in the Western United States were 1.86±0.75 g kg −1 and 2.47±0.80 g kg −1 of fuel burned, respectively. Average NH 3 and NH x emission factors for agricultural fires in the Southeastern United States were 0.89±0.58 and 1.74±0.92 g kg −1 , respectively. Our data show no clear inverse correlation between modified combustion efficiency (MCE) and NH 3 emissions. The observed NH 3 emissions were significantly higher than measured in previous laboratory experiments in the FIREX FireLab 2016 study.
T.H. Stone Memorial St. Joseph Peninsula State Park experienced significant damages from Hurricane Michael in 2018, the first Category 5 hurricane to hit the contiguous United States since 1992. These damages included a 300-meter-wide and 10-meter-deep breach in the peninsula, habitat disruption, and a forced closure of over half of the total park area. These damages, coupled with restricted visitor access, resulted in a significant loss of revenue for the park. NASA DEVELOP partnered with the Florida Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) to determine the overall impact of Hurricane Michael on land cover and shoreline change by using NASA Earth observations including Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and the European Space Agency’s Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI) to analyze sediment transport and climatology to further understand the lasting impacts of hurricanes on the ecosystems of the park. The DEVELOP team’s analyses showed that chlorophyll-a concentrations, sea surface temperature, and precipitation are increasing over time. The sediment transport analysis showed dynamic movement across the peninsula, with the greatest erosion occurring within the bay and along the length of the peninsula. These results are supported by evidence of declining seagrass abundances and seasonal turbidity patterns within those areas. Providing these analyses for the partner allows for a greater understanding of how best to proceed with restoration efforts, which may include rebuilding camping services, expanding fishing recreation, and conserving habitats for endangered species.