Customized Predictions of the Installed Cost of Behind-the-Meter Battery Energy Storage Systems.
Abstract not provided.
Benson, Andrew↗
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Customized Predictions of the Installed Cost of Behind-the-Meter Battery Energy Storage Systems.
Abstract not provided.
Benson, Andrew↗
Low-Cost, High-Performance Carbon Fiber for Compressed Natural Gas Storage Tanks (Final Technical Report – Down Select Report)
The aim of this project is to reduce the cost of Type IV, carbon fiber (CF) composite overwrap compressed gas storage tanks by reducing the cost of CF and CF composites. The project team worked to reduce the cost of CF by exploring and testing opportunities for a low-cost alternative precursor material for CF production to supplant market-dominant and costly polyacrylonitrile (PAN). Concurrently, the team aimed to reduce the cost of the tanks at the composite level by improving the interfacial adhesion between the fibers and the matrix resin through the incorporation of low-cost nanoparticles recycled from waste materials, which would reduce the volume of costly CF required to achieve the same tank performance. At the end of the first year, the project team selected mesophase pitch as the primary precursor candidate from a field of materials based on the superior mechanical performance and cost-saving potential. During the second year, the team produced CFs derived from mesophase pitch achieving an average tensile strength of 365.6 ksi and average tensile modulus of 40.74 Msi. Facility availability for spinning and converting these fibers at greater scale has hindered scale-up demonstration, but the team has identified opportunities to conduct this work in the near term. Cost modeling shows that these mesophase pitch-derived CFs can be up to 40% less expensive than PAN-derived CFs due to the lower cost of the feedstock material, higher throughput, greater conversion yield, and lower cost spinning method and compared to PAN. Additionally, the team has demonstrated at lab-scale that nanoparticle coating CFs can significantly increase the interfacial shear strength and load transfer efficiency of CFs in a matrix. Single filament pull-out testing showed a 27% average increase in max interfacial shear strength due to this coating. A continuous method of applying these coatings to a tow of CF has been developed for scale-up. 26 m tows of coated CFs were produced using this system and formed into composite ring samples for ASTM ring burst testing. Issues with the testing protocol have limited assessment of these results. A prototype Type IV tank was designed to meet ANSI HGV2 standards, and the design criteria set out by DOE, using the CF properties developed by the team paired with a proprietary resin matrix, a polyamide liner, and aluminum end bosses. The tank weighs 153.1 kg and with a total capacity of 5.8 kg H2 (5.6 kg usable), which yields a gravimetric capacity of 1.17 kWh/kg. Cost modeling predicts that the tank will have a projected cost of $15.73/kWh. Tank performance modeling does not include considerations for fiber-matrix load transfer efficiency improvements offered by nanoparticle coating method.
08 HYDROGEN↗
Comparative and Cost Analysis of a Novel Predictive Power Ramp Rate Control Method: A Case Study in a PV Power Plant in Puerto Rico
One of the most important aspects that need to be addressed to increase solar energy penetration is the power ramp-rate control. In weak grids such as the one found in Puerto Rico, it is important to smooth power fluctuations caused by the intermittence of passing clouds. In this work, a novel power ramp-rate control strategy is proposed. Additionally, a comparison with some of the most common power ramp-rate control methods is performed using a proposed model and real solar radiation data from the Coto Laurel photovoltaic power plant located in Ponce, Puerto Rico. The proposed model was validated using one-year real data from Coto Laurel. The power ramp-rate control methods were compared in real-time simulations using the OP5700 from Opal-RT Technologies considering power ramp rate fluctuations, power ramp-rate violations, fluctuations in the state-of-charge, among other indicators. Moreover, the proposed power ramp-rate control strategy, called predictive dynamic smoothing was explained and compared. Results indicate that the predictive dynamic smoothing produced a considerably reduced Levelized Cost of Storage compared to other power ramp-rate control methods and provided a higher lifetime expectancy for lithium batteries.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Risk-informed Predictive Analytics To Achieve Cost-effective Condition-based Monitoring And Maintenance Strategy
The research involves developing risk-informed predictive analytic capabilities to achieve condition-based monitoring and maintenance strategies to reduce overall maintenance costs. The research utilizes data (real-time data, periodic data, and institutional knowledge) related to a particular plant asset from a specific nuclear plant site to develop risk-informed predictive analytic algorithms. The developed algorithms and codes are used to optimize the maintenance strategy and estimate/forecast generation costs based on the state of health of the plant asset. Developed codes specifically include 1. Parameter estimation code based on Bayesian inference 2. Statistical data analysis code 3. Feature engineering code 4. Health classifier code 5. Diagnosis code 6. Prognosis code 7. Hazard code 8. Generation risk code 9. Economic code
Agarwal, Vivek↗
Gravity Well Commercial Economics Assessment: Potential Revenue and Cost: Cooperative Research and Development (Final Report)
In the Gravity Well Revenue Study, we evaluate the potential revenue from energy storage using historical energy-only electricity prices, forward-looking projections of hourly electricity prices, and actual reported revenue. This analysis examines the impact of storage duration and round-trip efficiency, as well as the location of the storage, on storage revenue within the current and projected U.S. power system. We also investigated the impact of round-trip efficiency on storage revenue. We found that the relationship between storage revenue and round-trip efficiency is nonlinear. The value of improved round-trip efficiency declines as round-trip efficiency increases. In the Gravity Well Future Cost Study, we applied learning curves to predict the future cost trajectory of Gravity Wells (GrWs). Two types of analysis were implemented. The first was a bottom-up analysis that used historical learning rates for cost components, such as motors and gearboxes, and cost categories (e.g., engineering and design, etc.) to determine the learning-by-doing based single-factor learning curve. The single factor learning curve expresses the relationship between the cost of GrW and the number of units deployed (or the cumulative capacity). In the second analysis, we predicted future GrW costs via a top-down approach. This approach accounts for historical cost trends in other renewable energy and storage technologies, which have similarities with GrWs. Using a multifactor learning curve that accounts for both intrinsic (cumulative capacity) and extrinsic (the elasticity in the price of steel) factors, we estimated the future cost of GrWs.
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
Toward ultra-efficient high-fidelity predictions of wind turbine wakes: Augmenting the accuracy of engineering models with machine learning
This study proposes a novel machine learning (ML) methodology for the efficient and cost-effective prediction of high-fidelity three-dimensional velocity fields in the wake of utility-scale turbines. The model consists of an autoencoder convolutional neural network with U-Net skipped connections, fine-tuned using high-fidelity data from large-eddy simulations (LES). The trained model takes the low-fidelity velocity field cost-effectively generated from the analytical engineering wake model as input and produces the high-fidelity velocity fields. The accuracy of the proposed ML model is demonstrated in a utility-scale wind farm for which datasets of wake flow fields were previously generated using LES under various wind speeds, wind directions, and yaw angles. Comparing the ML model results with those of LES, the ML model was shown to reduce the error in the prediction from 20% obtained from the Gauss Curl hybrid (GCH) model to less than 5%. In addition, the ML model captured the non-symmetric wake deflection observed for opposing yaw angles for wake steering cases, demonstrating a greater accuracy than the GCH model. The computational cost of the ML model is on par with that of the analytical wake model while generating numerical outcomes nearly as accurate as those of the high-fidelity LES.
Mechanics↗
First principles reactive simulation for equation of state prediction
The high cost of density functional theory (DFT) has hitherto limited the ab initio prediction of the equation of state (EOS). In this article, we employ a combination of large scale computing, advanced simulation techniques, and smart data science strategies to provide an unprecedented ab initio performance analysis of the high explosive pentaerythritol tetranitrate (PETN). Comparison to both experiment and thermochemical predictions reveals important quantitative limitations of DFT for EOS prediction and thus the assessment of high explosives. In particular, we find that DFT predicts the energy of PETN detonation products to be systematically too high relative to the unreacted neat crystalline material, resulting in an underprediction of the detonation velocity, pressure, and temperature at the Chapman–Jouguet state. The energetic bias can be partially accounted for by high-level electronic structure calculations of the product molecules. Furthermore we demonstrate a modeling strategy for mapping chemical composition across a wide parameter space with limited numerical data, the results of which suggest additional molecular species to consider in thermochemical modeling.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Methodology for assessing the maximum potential impact of separations opportunities in industrial processes
Separation technologies currently used in U.S. manufacturing industries are estimated to account for more than 20% of plant energy consumption. However, accurately determining the impact of new separation technology solutions can sometimes be difficult, especially when evaluating a slate of new candidate separation technologies, each of which has its own separation performance, energy demand, and capital cost. In these cases, a typical approach is to assess each new separation technology by collecting performance and cost information and then using that information to develop a techno-economic analysis to identify overall benefits. While this approach is thorough, it can be time consuming and can hinder reaching a critical understanding of the potential of a given separation challenge, especially when there is no known solution. To address these issues, we developed an assessment methodology, using industrial screening processes, that can be used to better understand the potential impacts of addressing a given separation challenge. This paper presents an overview of our separation challenge stream assessment methodology. The methodology involves defining an “ideal” separator and deriving the associated minimum separation energy. The “ideal” separator represents the most optimistic outlook of a given opportunity so the maximum impact from existing and not-yet-developed solutions can be assessed. Using established biorefinery models, we applied the methodology to 10 different separation challenge streams from two different biomass conversion platforms to identify the type of information that can be obtained. Three of the ten challenge streams assessed had maximum possible cost savings predictions >20%, and associated reductions in process energy carbon intensity ranging from 0 to 54%. Two streams had cost and energy savings potential that were < 5%. Some of the opportunity drivers from the various assessments include higher product yields, reduction or elimination of downstream equipment, new co-products, and cost savings associated with raw materials and energy consumption. The information from these assessments can help guide the selection or development of new separation technology solutions based on the various potential factors that drive the projected benefits.
09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
Orthorhombic Structures as Inorganic Halide Perovskite Models for High-Throughput DFT Investigations
Although high-symmetry Pm-3m space group cubic models are computationally efficient for high-throughput density functional theory (DFT) calculations of inorganic ternary (ABX 3 ) halide perovskites (HPs), they frequently predict band gaps (E g ) that disagree with experiment. Conversely, while low-symmetry cubic polymorphous networks (PN) comprised of 160 to 320 atoms incur significantly greater computational cost, they predict E g ’s that are more closely aligned with experiment. Here, in this study, we compare the DFT total energies and E g ’s predicted by four high-symmetry structure models (Pnma orthorhombic, R3m trigonal, P4/mbm tetragonal, and Pm-3m cubic) to cubic PNs for 5 experimentally characterized ternary HPs and find that the orthorhombic model computes Eg’s with the smallest MAD of 0.23 eV relative to the PNs. Pair distribution functions and DFT-computed total energies show that octahedral tilting, which is present in the 20-atom orthorhombic and 160-atom cubic PN models but not in the 5-atom cubic models, stabilizes all 5 compositions in our benchmarking set. We also find that imposing PN constraints when generating and optimizing these orthorhombic structures by fixing the unit cell lattice vectors and displacing the atoms prior to ionic relaxation with DFT, which we call the orthorhombic surrogate model (OSM), lowers the MAD of E g predictions to 0.09 eV. Our OSM predicts the PN band gaps of an additional 95 theoretical inorganic ternary HPs with MAD of 0.08 eV, supporting its usage in high-throughput DFT investigations to closely estimate PN band gaps with much less computational expense.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Attack Surface Analysis of the Digital Twins interface with Advanced Sensor and Instrumentation Interfaces: Cyber Threat Assessment and Attack Demonstration for Digital Twins in Advanced Reactor Architectures
A digital twin is a virtual representation of a physical system or object using real-time data that can predict and analyze how the system or object performs. This relatively new technology can be applied to the field of nuclear power generation, to aid in the design and development of new nuclear power plants and reduce operation costs using predictive maintenance and other data analytical methods. While there are already companies utilizing simulation software to train operators and technicians in the nuclear industry, some are now transitioning to utilizing their existing technology, software, and methods to develop digital twin solutions for the next generation of nuclear power plants, offering their services to utilities and government organizations around the world.
21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
Assessment of Cloud-Based Applications Enabling a Scalable Risk-Informed Predictive Maintenance Strategy Across the Nuclear Fleet
The current light water reactor fleet uses time-based or failure-based maintenance strategies to achieve high-capacity factors. But to make nuclear more competitive in the energy market, these reactors could utilize emerging technologies in terms of artificial intelligence (AI) and cloud computing to enable a cost-effective, predictive maintenance strategy. This report examines the feasibility of cloud computing for the nuclear industry’s needs in terms of the cloud’s computing capabilities, feasibility, and regulatory concerns. The technical viability of cloud computing was analyzed using one year worth of data from a boiling water reactor’s safety relief valve. Models were hosted on a local desktop, Idaho National Laboratory’s high-performance computer, and Microsoft Azure. Data was loaded, processed, and two types of models were trained in an A/B fashion. Based on the speed at which these actions were completed, it was used to determined that cloud computing has adequate computing resources. Additionally, the computing power can scale with the demanded load. To enable cloud computing in the existing fleet, additional sensors, networks, and other requirements must be implemented to ensure a smooth transition from current maintenance strategies. However, there is a benefit as the plant no longer needs manage their own servers, software, cybersecurity, and IT support staff. Many of these features can be offloaded on to the cloud provider. A comprehensive analysis was completed that showed the current annual cost of operating is more expensive than using cloud computing resources. Lastly, the regulatory framework does not explicitly address AI or autonomous control. Currently, the NRC and other regulatory bodies are evaluating providing guidance to address gaps rather than new regulations to address the use of AI and ML. But since many of the AI applications are focused on non-safety related applications, such as balance-of-plant components, they will likely have little or no regulatory restrictions or necessary approvals. Demonstrating how AI can improve maintenance and operation of these non-safety related systems seems like the likely path forward for implementing AI and cloud computing resources inside nuclear power plants (NPPs).
46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
Hybrid large-eddy simulation with adaptive downstream anisotropic eddy viscosity model
Turbulence pervades most flows of engineering interest, and its prediction remains a challenge on both accuracy and cost. One promising predictive approach that reduces cost combines large-eddy simulation (LES) with simulation based on Reynolds averaged Navier–Stokes equations (RANS). This study presents a method to overcome stability and accuracy issues associated with these hybrid LES-RANS methods. The method developed involves extracting the Reynolds stresses from the upstream LES solution and then using that information to convert the downstream RANS model from a scalar eddy-viscosity model to an anisotropic nonlinear eddy-viscosity model. The method developed differs from the downstream tensorial eddy-viscosity model by being independent of the coordinate system. The method developed was evaluated by computing film cooling of a flat plate with the coolant injected through one row of circular holes. Results obtained show instabilities at the LES-to-RANS interface to be eliminated. Also, the method developed yielded solutions that compare reasonably well with those from LES, even though a significant portion of the flow is computed by the adapted anisotropic RANS model instead of LES, which significantly reduced the number of grid points and computational time needed. Since modification of the downstream RANS model is based on information extracted from the upstream LES solution, the method developed is adaptive to the problem being studied.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Energy Cost Analysis and Operational Range Prediction Based on Medium- and Heavy-Duty Electric Vehicle Real-World Deployments across the United States
While the market for medium- and heavy-duty battery-electric vehicles (MHD EVs) is still nascent, a growing number of these vehicles are being deployed across the U.S. This study used over 2.3 million miles of operational data from multiple types of MHD EVs across various regions and operating conditions to address knowledge gaps in total cost of ownership and operational range. First, real-world energy cost savings were determined: MHD fleets should experience energy cost savings each year from 2021 to 2035, regardless of vehicle platform, with the greatest savings seen in transit buses (up to USD 4459 annually) and HD trucks (up to USD 3284 annually). Second, to help fleets across various geographies throughout the U.S. assess the suitability of EVs for their year-round operating needs, operational range was modeled using the XGBoost algorithm (R2: 70%) given 22 input features relevant to vehicle efficiency. Finally, this paper recommends (1) that MHD fleets apply energy-saving practices to minimize the impacts of cold temperatures and high congestion levels on vehicle efficiency and range, and (2) that local hauling fleets select trucks with a nominal range nearly double the expected maximum daily range to account for range losses under local, urban driving conditions.
Qiu, Yin (ORCID:0009000900948794)↗
Trajectory prediction dimensionality reduction for low-cost connected automated vehicle systems
Here, to facilitate low-cost connected automated vehicle (CAV) system development, this study proposes two interpretable dimensionality reduction techniques in vehicle trajectory prediction, i.e., the piecewise Taylor series approximation (PTA) and the piecewise Fourier series approximation (PFA), to lower computation complexity, reduce device investment, and decrease computation energy consumption. Two benchmarks are developed, the long short-term memory (LSTM)-based model without dimensionality reduction and the LSTM-based model with encoder-decoder (a widely used dimensionality reduction technique). Results show that the four predictions have similar accuracy, and the training time (proportional to computation energy consumption) of models with dimensionality reduction techniques is greatly reduced. The reduction is even more significant when PTA/PFA is used. Sensitivity analysis advises PFA/PTA parameter selections to reduce computation complexity without significant loss of prediction accuracy. Further, the robustness of the LSTM PTA/PFA is proven by the investigation of data noises.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Weatherization Assistant NEAT/MHEA
The software provides a measure selection technique indicating cost effective retrofit activities that can be applied to a home using a standard Savings to Investment Ratio (SIR). Users must provide an input file describing the characteristics of the home to be evaluated. The software takes the input data provided and calculates energy savings and cost savings predicted for a standard set of measures given the input parameters. The Weatherization Assistant computes estimates of pre-retrofit whole building space heating and cooling energy consumptions based on the house description data supplied by the user. The consumptions are computed using a monthly heating and cooling variable base degree-day method by algorithms similar to those developed for the CIRA program [LBL, 1982]. The building consumptions are needed in computing the energy savings from measures affecting the efficiencies of the heating and cooling equipment. Weatherization Assistant then computes the energy savings and costs for each individual measure applicable to the building described as if it were the only measure installed in the house. From these energy savings, a discounted dollar savings over the life of each measure is computed. The ratio of this dollar savings to the cost of installing the measure, the "savings-to-investment ratio" (SIR), is used in an initial ranking of the measures' effectiveness. The "interacted" savings and SIR of measures are then determined assuming the measures are added to the house collectively, in order of their ranking, e.g., the second ranked measure is installed in the house initially described by the user after having been modified by the first ranked measure. If this second-ranked measure's updated SIR is greater than a user-defined limit, the measure is left implemented, else it is removed so that the next measure's effectiveness is not dependent on it. The choice between two mutually exclusive measures (such as different levels of insulation) is made on the basis of their "net present value" (NPV), the difference of life-time savings and installation cost, rather than their SIR. This has been shown to be the more correct criterion on which to base the selection between two measures, both of which cannot be installed. The audit computes and reports to the user the energy savings, discounted dollar savings, installation cost, and SIR for each measure considered cost-effective. For those with SIR greater than the user-designated cutoff, a materials list gives the material name, type, and quantity required for installation of the measure. Weatherization Assistant permits entry of pre-retrofit billing data for gas or electrically heated homes or homes with electric air-conditioning. The user may then make the decision to have the savings of the measures adjusted to reflect the difference in billed consumption and that predicted by the program.
Gettings, Michael↗
The BREKTRIA 500 – A Breakthrough in Technology and Power Density for an Advanced 500kW Utility-Scale String Inverter (Final Technical Report)
The primary goal of this development project, planned to be 36 months in duration, was to create a 500kW utility-scale string inverter, demonstrating an advanced hybrid architecture that would achieve unprecedented high power density, and bring the inverter to the stage of production readiness. Specific key objectives for the 500kW utility-scale string inverter were: Create a 500kW 3-phase 600Vac inverter that was similar in overall size to the existing 250kW string inverters in the market, thereby demonstrating dramatically increased power density; Achieve a cost of goods, including all manufacturing-related costs and overheads, at or below 2.5¢/Wac ($12,500); Demonstrate full-power operation at a 45-50C ambient temperature with no power de-rating; Accommodate a PV array DC input of up to 1MWdc, aka a DC/AC Ratio of 2.0; Demonstrate peak efficiency greater than 99% at any operating dc voltage, and a CEC weighted average efficiency greater than or equal to 98.5%. The motivation for this project was to leapfrog the competition by creating the world’s most powerful string inverter, utilizing an innovative topology and achieving a step change increase in power density. Achieving the goals of the project would have enabled Yaskawa Solectria Solar to demonstrate its technology leadership, manufacture the utility-scale string inverter in the company’s facilities in Illinois, and bring to the market a highly-differentiated and compelling product to help the company grow its share in the large and growing utility market segment. During the course of this project, BREK Electronics’ hybrid architecture inverter was taken from an early-stage 125kW prototype, to a more mature and successfully demonstrated power stage at twice the power. Two 250kW power stages were planned to build the 500kW inverter. Significant progress was made in the inverter controls, achieving a clean AC sinewave and closed-loop operation into the grid, and improved efficiency by control of the high-speed switching. Further, the updated 250kW power stage was on track to achieve full power operation at an ambient temperature of 50C. At the time of the project’s closure in September 2022, global semiconductor supply remained limited, with shortages creating dramatic swings in both availability and price. Given this situation, our ability to predict cost-of-goods two years out with any accuracy or confidence was limited. As a result, the probability of attaining the target cost of 2.5¢/Wac for the 500kW inverter remained uncertain at the closure of the project. This project successfully demonstrated the potential for the advanced hybrid architecture inverter that emerged from a decade of university research on Si IGBTs and SiC mosfets, leading to this unique inverter topology. The team has taken the first steps toward an evolutionary advancement in inverter technology that remains to be fully realized.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Data-driven surrogates for high dimensional models using Gaussian process regression on the Grassmann manifold
This paper introduces a surrogate modeling scheme based on Grassmannian manifold learning to be used for cost-efficient predictions of high-dimensional stochastic systems. The method exploits subspace-structured features of each solution by projecting it onto a Grassmann manifold. This point-wise linear dimensionality reduction harnesses the structural information to assess the similarity between solutions at different points in the input parameter space. The method utilizes a solution clustering approach in order to identify regions of the parameter space over which solutions are sufficiently similarly such that they can be interpolated on the Grassmannian. In this clustering, the reduced-order solutions are partitioned into disjoint clusters on the Grassmann manifold using the eigen-structure of properly defined Grassmannian kernels and, the Karcher mean of each cluster is estimated. Then, the points in each cluster are projected onto the tangent space with origin at the corresponding Karcher mean using the exponential mapping. For each cluster, a Gaussian process regression model is trained that maps the input parameters of the system to the reduced solution points of the corresponding cluster projected onto the tangent space. Using this Gaussian process model, the full-field solution can be efficiently predicted at any new point in the parameter space. In certain cases, the solution clusters will span disjoint regions of the parameter space. In such cases, for each of the solution clusters we utilize a second, density-based spatial clustering to group their corresponding input parameter points in the Euclidean space. The proposed method is applied to two numerical examples. Here, the first is a nonlinear stochastic ordinary differential equation with uncertain initial conditions where the surrogate is used to predict the time history solution. The second involves modeling of plastic deformation in a model amorphous solid using the Shear Transformation Zone theory of plasticity, where the proposed surrogate is used to predict the full strain field of a material specimen under large shear strains.
42 ENGINEERING↗