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DOE OSTI2025

Second-generation downscaled earth system model data using generative machine learning

The second-generation Sup3rCC dataset provides high-resolution meteorological data generated through the downscaling of multiple earth system models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). This downscaling is performed through application of a generative machine learning approach called Super-Resolution for Renewable Resource Data (sup3r). This dataset builds on the first-generation Sup3rCC data by applying improved bias correction methods and adding downscaled precipitation to the output variables. As with the first Sup3rCC version, the data still include temperature, wind speed and direction at multiple heights, pressure, three components of downwelling solar radiation, and relative humidity—all at 4-kilometer (km) hourly resolution over the contiguous United States. This is a 25x spatial enhancement and 24x temporal enhancement of the source 100-km daily-average ESM data. This extension of the Sup3rCC dataset includes data from six ESMs from two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) totaling 400 years of data with multiple future projections of changing meteorological conditions. The scenario selection was based on a structured evaluation of historical ESM skill and comprehensive representation of possible trajectories of future climate change in temperature, humidity, precipitation, solar irradiance, and near-surface wind speeds. The inclusion of multiple future projections is intended to enable users to assess key drivers of un 36 certainty and variability. All data are double-bias corrected, resulting in a product that can be used out-of-the-box for energy system analysis with minimal historical bias. The potential applications of Sup3rCC data extend to various topics in renewable energy resource assessment, energy systems modeling, and grid resilience studies. High-resolution future meteorological projections are critical for evaluating the effects of changing meteorological conditions on renewable energy generation, energy demand, and for optimizing energy storage and grid infrastructure. The 4-km hourly resolution of the downscaled data enables understanding of spatial and temporal variability at the scales necessary for energy system operational planning. In addition, the dataset can support risk assessments by providing detailed information on possible future extreme weather events and long-term meteorological variability at scales relevant to energy infrastructure. By offering an enhanced representation of possible future meteorological conditions, the second-generation Sup3rCC dataset enables more precise modeling of energy resilience and adaptation strategies in response to changing meteorological conditions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

AMOC Variability in Climate Models and Its Dependence on the Mean State

Abstract Understanding internal variability of the climate system is critical when isolating internal and anthropogenically forced signals. Here, we investigate the modes of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ( AMOC ) variability using perturbation experiments with the Institut Pierre‐Simon Laplace's (IPSL) coupled model and compare them to Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) pre‐industrial control simulations. We identify two characteristic modes of variability—decadal‐to‐multidecadal ( DMD var ) and centennial ( CEN var ). The former is driven largely by temperature anomalies in the subpolar North Atlantic, while the latter is driven by salinity in the western subpolar North Atlantic. The amplitude of each mode scales linearly with the mean AMOC strength in the IPSL experiments. The DMD var amplitude correlates well with the AMOC mean strength across CMIP6 models, while the CEN var mode does not. These findings suggest that the strength of DMD var depends robustly on the North Atlantic mean state, while the CEN var mode may be model‐dependent.

Ferster, Brady S. [LOCEAN‐IPSL Sorbonne Université↗

DOE OSTI2026

Interconnection of Aerosol‐Cloud Interactions and Cloud Feedback Through Warm Rain Process

Recent research has revealed a correlation within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations: models exhibiting more pronounced warming due to positive cloud feedback simultaneously show enhanced cooling from aerosol‐cloud interactions (ACI). However, the interplay between ACI and cloud feedback is not well understood in these models. Our study addresses this gap by modifying the autoconversion rate in two Earth system models (ESMs), elucidating how ACI could connect with cloud feedback through the warm rain process. We find that higher autoconversion rates, which are associated with stronger ACI, suppress the increase in cloud liquid water path (LWP) and cloud optical depth with warming by enhancing the precipitation efficiency over the extratropical regions, leading to a larger positive cloud feedback. This study offers new insights into the compensatory mechanism between ACI and cloud feedback through the warm rain process and highlights the importance of constraining the autoconversion parameterization in models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dynamically downscaled seasonal heat wave projections in the CONUS

Heat waves are a well-documented hazard that are projected to increase in intensity, duration, and frequency with climate change. Regions of the US experience widely varying temperatures; for example, 35 °C is extremely hot for spring in the Northeast but not for summer in the Southeast. It is important to evaluate projections within a regional context and at a high enough resolution to understand the risks to populations. We identify heat waves across the Conterminous US (CONUS) under SSP5–8.5 from 2020 to 2059 with an ensemble of dynamically downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model outputs. We demonstrate that there are regional differences caused by seasonal and local drivers of persistent hot temperatures. Summer heat waves are increasing in intensity and duration faster than winter heat waves because of the atmospheric conditions that promote these events. Our analysis emphasizes the value of fine-resolution modeling for projecting future climate risks.

Rubin, Hannah [University of Tennessee, Knoxville ↗

DOE OSTI2025

Extratropical Cloud Feedback Constrained by Cloud Sources and Sinks in Cyclones

Constraining cloud feedback in global climate models (GCMs) using observations is important for establishing accurate predictions of future climate. Uncertainty in shortwave cloud feedback (SW FB ) dominates uncertainty in total cloud feedback. Recent studies show a shift toward more positive extratropical SW FB in the latest generations of GCMs leading to the emergence of very high equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). In this study, we use precipitation efficiency and albedo susceptibility to constrain liquid water path (LWP) response to warming and SW FB in the Southern Ocean (SO; 50°–80°S). We analyze precipitation in extratropical cyclones (ECs) to learn about extratropical condensed water sink processes, combined with observations of clouds and moisture convergence, and use the analysis to better understand and constrain SW FB . We utilize a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) hosted in the Community Atmosphere Model, version 6 (CAM6), to provide a constraint on SW FB based on observations from Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) and Multisensor Advanced Climatology of LWP (MAC-LWP). We apply Gaussian process regression to emulate the model response to all parameters perturbed in the PPE. Confronting the emulator output with observations provides a new estimated response of Earth to global warming. Furthermore, our new estimates of SO LWP reduce the PPE range by 66%–72%, which results in a shortwave cloud radiative effect estimated range that is 27%–34% less than the PPE range. Observations suggest a more positive SO SW FB than the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), and consequently do not reject the high climate sensitivity GCMs emerging from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6).

Atmosphere↗

DOE OSTI2026

Future Projection of Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Troughs and Implications for Tropical Cyclone Activity

Summertime tropical upper-tropospheric troughs (TUTTs) provide a unified framework to better understand how extratropical and tropical forcings jointly modulate basin-scale tropical cyclone (TC) activity. In this study, we examine future changes in TUTTs and their implications for TC activity. Multimodel ensemble-mean projections from 45 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models suggest a contraction of the Pacific TUTT and an expansion of the Atlantic TUTT as the climate warms. Consistently, future changes in environment-based TC indices indicate that the large-scale conditions will become more favorable for TC genesis and intensification over the central North Pacific but less favorable over the tropical North Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. Utilizing a TC-permitting large-ensemble dataset [i.e., the Database for Policy Decision-Making for Future Climate Change (d4PDF)] that adequately captures the observed interannual TUTT–TC relationships, we further confirm the impacts of projected TUTT changes on the TC activity in a warmer climate. In contrast, the TUTT–TC relationship is poorly represented in most CMIP6 High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) models; such deficiencies call for caution when assessing future TC risk based on explicitly tracked TCs in these models. Additionally, CMIP6 projections show large intermodel spread in TUTT changes, implying uncertainty in projected TC activity, especially over the central-to-eastern Pacific and the North Atlantic. This intermodel spread is associated with interhemispheric sea surface temperature warming asymmetry, which leads to a meridional shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the simultaneous weakening or strengthening of TUTTs in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. The potential contributions of anthropogenic aerosol forcing and oceanic circulation to this interhemispheric warming asymmetry are briefly examined.

Climate Change↗

DOE OSTI2025

High-Resolution Fire Weather Index Data for the Conterminous US (1980–2099), Version 1

This dataset presents a suite of high-resolution fire weather index datasets calculated from observation (gridMet, Livneh, Daymet V4), reanalysis (AgERA5), downscaled hydro-climate projections over the conterminous United States (CONUS) based on multiple selected Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Aside from the daily FWI datasets, we also include a set of FWI extreme indicators at annual, seasonal, and monthly scales, including 1) fwixx: maximum FWI; 2) fwisa: mean FWI. For annual fwisa, it refers to the season with the maximum seasonal average; 3) fwils: Length of fire season over a specified period, where fire season is defined as the days exceeding the median value of the normalized FWI during the reference period (1980-1984); 4) fwixd: Number of extreme fire weather days over a specified period, where extreme day is defined as the day with FWI > the 95th percentile of the FWI during the reference period (1980-1984). All FWI datasets cover 1980-2020 baseline and the model simulated products including the downscaled products additionally include 2021-2099 near-future periods under the high-end (SSP585) emission scenario.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

gaia: An R package to estimate crop yield responses to temperature and precipitation

gaia is an open-source R package designed to estimate crop yield shocks in response to annual weather variations and CO 2 concentrations at the country scale for 17 major crops. This innovative tool streamlines the workflow from raw climate data processing to projections of annual shocks to crop yields at the country level, using the response surfaces from an empirical econometric model developed and documented in Waldhoff et al. (2020), which leverages historical weather, CO 2 , and crop yield data for robust empirical fitting for 17 crops. gaia uses these response surfaces with monthly temperature and precipitation projections (e.g., from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) (O’Neill et al., 2016) climate data bias-adjusted and statistically downscaled by the ISIMIP3BASD approach (Lange, 2019) in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) (Warszawski et al., 2014)) to project yield shocks that can be applied to agricultural productivity changes at the country level for use in multisectoral economic models. The historical and future projections use gridded, country-and-crop specific monthly growing season precipitation and temperature data, aggregated to the national level, and weighted by cropland area derived from the global Monthly Irrigated and Rainfed Crop Areas around the year 2000 (MIRCA2000) dataset (Portmann et al., 2010). These annual, country, and crop-specific yield shocks can be aggregated to different definitions of regions, crop commodities, and time periods, as needed by specific multisectoral economic models. gaia serves as a lightweight, powerful tool that can aid exploration of crop yield responses under a broad range of future climate projections, enhancing human-Earth system analysis capabilities.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of Global Climate Models for Use in Energy Analysis

The interplay between energy, climate, and weather is becoming more complex due to increasing contributions of renewable energy generation, energy storage, electrified end uses, and the increasing frequency of extreme weather events. Energy system analyses commonly rely on meteorological inputs to estimate renewable energy generation and energy demand; however, these inputs rarely represent the estimated impacts of future climate change. Climate models and publicly available climate change datasets can be used for this purpose, but the selection of inputs from the myriad of available models and datasets is a nuanced and subjective process. In this work, we assess datasets from various global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). We present evaluations of their skills with respect to the historical climate and comparisons of their future projections of climate change for two climate change scenarios. We present the results for different climatic and energy system regions and include interactive figures in the accompanying software repository. Previous work has presented similar GCM evaluations, but none have presented variables and metrics specifically intended for comprehensive energy systems analysis including impacts on energy demand, thermal cooling, hydropower, water availability, solar energy generation, and wind energy generation. We focus on GCM output meteorological variables that directly affect these energy system components including the representation of extreme values that can drive grid resilience events. The objective of this work is not to recommend the best climate model and dataset for a given analysis, but instead to provide a reference to facilitate the selection of climate models and scenarios in subsequent work.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Downscaled Earth System Model Data for Resilient Energy System Planning

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Changing effects of external forcing on Atlantic–Pacific interactions

Recent studies have highlighted the increasingly dominant role of external forcing in driving Atlantic and Pacific Ocean variability during the second half of the 20th century. This paper provides insights into the underlying mechanisms driving interactions between modes of variability over the two basins. We define a set of possible drivers of these interactions and apply causal discovery to reanalysis data, two ensembles of pacemaker simulations where sea surface temperatures in either the tropical Pacific or the North Atlantic are nudged to observations, and a pre-industrial control run. We also utilize large-ensemble means of historical simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to quantify the effect of external forcing and improve the understanding of its impact. A causal analysis of the historical time series between 1950 and 2014 identifies a regime switch in the interactions between major modes of Atlantic and Pacific climate variability in both reanalysis and pacemaker simulations. A sliding window causal analysis reveals a decaying El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effect on the Atlantic as the North Atlantic fluctuates towards an anomalously warm state. The causal networks also demonstrate that external forcing contributed to strengthening the Atlantic's negative-sign effect on ENSO since the mid-1980s, where warming tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures induce a La Niña-like cooling in the equatorial Pacific during the following season through an intensification of the Pacific Walker circulation. The strengthening of this effect is not detected when the historical external forcing signal is removed in the Pacific pacemaker ensemble. The analysis of the pre-industrial control run supports the notion that the Atlantic and Pacific modes of natural climate variability exert contrasting impacts on each other even in the absence of anthropogenic forcing. The interactions are shown to be modulated by the (multi)decadal states of temperature anomalies of both basins with stronger connections when these states are “out of phase”. We show that causal discovery can detect previously documented connections and provides important potential for a deeper understanding of the mechanisms driving changes in regional and global climate variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Baseline Climate Variables for Earth System Modelling

The Baseline Climate Variables for Earth System Modelling (ESM-BCVs) are defined as a list of 135 variables which have high utility for the evaluation and exploitation of climate simulations. The list reflects the most frequently used elements of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) archive. Successive phases of CMIP have supported strong results in science and substantially influence international climate policy formulation. This paper responds to both interest in exploiting CMIP data standards in a broader range of climate modelling activities and a need to achieve greater clarity about the significance and intention of variables in the CMIP Data Request. As Earth system modelling archives grow in scale and complexity, there are emerging problems associated with weak standardisation at the variable collection level. That is, there are good standards covering how specific variables should be archived, but this paper fills a gap in the standardisation of which variables should be archived. The ESM-BCV list is intended as a resource for ESM intercomparison projects (MIPs) developing requests to enable greater consistency among MIPs and as a reference for modelling centres to enhance consistency within MIPs. Provisional planning for the CMIP7 Data Request exploits the ESM-BCVs as a core element. The baseline variable list includes 98 variables which have modest or minor data volume footprints and could be generated systematically when simulations are produced and archived for exploitation by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) community. A further 35 variables are classed as “high volume” and are only suitable for production when the resource implications are justified.

Juckes, Martin [University of Oxford (United Kingd↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP v2.0) contribution to CMIP7

The first version of the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP v1.0) coordinated key simulations exploring the role of individual forcings in past, current and future climate as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6 (CMIP6). The simulations have been used extensively in the literature for detection and attribution of long-term changes, constraining projections of climate change, attributing extreme events and understanding drivers of past and future simulated climate changes. Attribution studies using DAMIP v1.0 simulations underpinned prominent assessments of human-induced warming in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report. Here, we describe the set of DAMIP v2.0 simulations, proposed for the next phase of CMIP, CMIP7. Detection and attribution studies rely on pre-industrial control simulations and historical simulations, which will be part of the Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima (DECK) set of simulations for CMIP7. In addition, we identify the three highest-priority single-forcing experiments for CMIP7 to be run as “Assessment Fast Track” simulations in support of the Seventh Assessment Report of the IPCC: simulations with natural forcings only, anthropogenic well-mixed greenhouse gases only and anthropogenic aerosols only. Beyond this, the DAMIP v2.0 experimental design includes full-column ozone-only simulations and land-use-only simulations, such that the set of individual forcing experiments, when these are considered together, represents the full set of historical forcings. While concentration-driven simulations are prioritised for attribution, emissions-driven versions of the DAMIP experiments are also proposed to support understanding of the influence of carbon-cycle feedbacks on the simulated responses to individual forcings.

Gillett, Nathan P. [Environment and Climate Change↗

DOE OSTI2024

Subpolar North Atlantic Mean State Affects the Response of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to the North Atlantic Oscillation in CMIP6 Models

Abstract The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) plays an important role in climate, transporting heat and salt to the subpolar North Atlantic. The AMOC’s variability is sensitive to atmospheric forcing, especially the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Because AMOC observations are short, climate models are a valuable tool to study the AMOC’s variability. Yet, there are known issues with climate models, like uncertainties and systematic biases. To investigate this, preindustrial control experiments from models participating in the phase 6 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) are evaluated. There is a large, but correlated, spread in the models’ subpolar gyre mean surface temperature and salinity. By splitting models into groups of either a warm–salty or cold–fresh subpolar gyre, it is shown that warm–salty models have a lower sea ice cover in the Labrador Sea and, hence, enable a larger heat loss during a positive NAO. Stratification in the Labrador Sea is also weaker in warm–salty models, such that the larger NAO-related heat loss can also affect greater depths. As a result, subsurface density anomalies are much stronger in the warm–salty models than in those that tend to be cold and fresh. As these anomalies propagate southward along the western boundary, they establish a zonal density gradient anomaly that promotes a stronger delayed AMOC response to the NAO in the warm–salty models. These findings demonstrate how model mean state errors are linked across variables and affect variability, emphasizing the need for improvement of the subpolar North Atlantic mean states in models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Performance evaluation of CMIP6 models on the Arctic-Siberian Plain teleconnection affecting the East Asian heat waves

The frequency and intensity of summer heat waves in East Asia have increased sharply in recent decades, significantly impacting public health and the economy. The Arctic-Siberian Plain (ASP) teleconnection pattern has been identified as a key driver, with ASP warming amplifying atmospheric circulation patterns conducive to extreme temperatures. This study evaluates the ability of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 models to simulate the ASP pattern across interannual variability (IAV) and intra-seasonal variability (ISV) timescales using the Common Basis Function method. The multi-model mean shows statistically significant pattern correlations with ERA5 reanalysis, with correlation coefficients of 0.90 and 0.99 for IAV and ISV, respectively. While the ASP pattern is generally well captured, models exhibit substantial inter-model diversity in the intensity and position of anticyclonic anomalies over the ASP and East Asia. Models with ASP pattern variability similar to reanalysis better reproduce extreme East Asian temperatures, whereas those over- or underestimating ASP variability exhibit lower skill. These performance differences are related to differences in simulating key variables associated with the development of the ASP pattern. Our findings highlight the role of the ASP pattern in modulating extreme heat events, as models with improved ASP simulations align more closely with observed temperature extremes. Refining ASP representations in models could enhance seasonal heat wave predictions, improving climate adaptation strategies.

Arctic-Siberian Plain (ASP)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Improved Simulation of East Asian Summer Monsoon in the High-resolution CESM1 and Its Causes

Based on the high- and low-resolution Community Earth System Model, version 1 (CESM1), and corresponding simulations from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we compare the interannual variability of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). The EASM interannual variability is characterized by the anomalous western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC) circulation and the dipole rainfall pattern with a negative southern lobe over the western North Pacific and a positive northern lobe along the Meiyu–Baiu region, which is better reproduced by the high-resolution models. Here, the reason for the improvement in the high-resolution models has been attributed to the better simulation of the warm temperature advection from the wind anomalies on the climatological temperature gradient. Positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean are the key to the improved wind anomalies featuring a WNPAC in the high-resolution models. The warm SST anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean strengthen the WNPAC by triggering a Kelvin-wave response to the enhanced heat release induced by the increased precipitation. Based on the mixed-layer heat budget analysis, the warm SST anomalies over the western Indian Ocean in the high-resolution CESM1 are tied to the anomalous easterly wind along the equator, which reduces surface evaporation and upwelling. Therefore, the better simulations of air-sea feedback and the oceanic mesoscale eddy over the western Indian Ocean are the key for the improved simulation of the EASM interannual variations in the high-resolution CESM1.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Observational benchmarks inform representation of soil organic carbon dynamics in land surface models

Abstract. Representing soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics in Earth system models (ESMs) is a key source of uncertainty in predicting carbon–climate feedbacks. Machine learning models can help identify dominant environmental controllers and establish their functional relationships with SOC stocks. The resulting knowledge can be integrated into ESMs to reduce uncertainty and improve predictions of SOC dynamics over space and time. In this study, we used a large number of SOC field observations (n=54 000), geospatial datasets of environmental factors (n=46), and two machine learning approaches (namely random forest, RF, and generalized additive modeling, GAM) to (1) identify dominant environmental controllers of global and biome-specific SOC stocks, (2) derive functional relationships between environmental controllers and SOC stocks, and (3) compare the identified environmental controllers and predictive relationships with those in models used in Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Our results showed that the diurnal temperature, drought index, cation exchange capacity, and precipitation were important observed environmental predictors of global SOC stocks. While the RF model identified 14 environmental factors that describe climatic, vegetation, and edaphic conditions as important predictors of global SOC stocks (R2=0.61, RMSE = 0.46 kg m−2), current ESMs oversimplify the relationships between environmental factors and SOC, with precipitation, temperature, and net primary productivity explaining > 96 % of the variability in ESM-modeled SOC stocks. Further, our study revealed notable disparities among the functional relationships between environmental factors and SOC stocks simulated by ESMs compared with observed relationships. To improve SOC representations in ESMs, it is imperative to incorporate additional environmental controls, such as the cation exchange capacity, and refine the functional relationships to align more closely with observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

A new metrics framework for quantifying and intercomparing atmospheric rivers in observations, reanalyses, and climate models

We present a new atmospheric river (AR) analysis and benchmarking tool, namely Atmospheric River Metrics Package (ARMP). It includes a suite of new AR metrics that are designed for quick analysis of AR characteristics via statistics in gridded climate datasets such as model output and reanalysis. This package can be used for climate model evaluation in comparison with reanalysis and observational products. Integrated metrics such as mean bias and spatial pattern correlation are efficient for diagnosing systematic AR biases in climate models. For example, the package identifies the fact that, in CMIP5 and CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6) models, AR tracks in the South Atlantic are positioned farther poleward compared to ERA5 reanalysis, while in the South Pacific, tracks are generally biased towards the Equator. For the landfalling AR peak season, we find that most climate models simulate a completely opposite seasonal cycle over western Africa. This tool can also be used for identifying and characterizing structural differences among different AR detectors (ARDTs). For example, ARs detected with the Mundhenk algorithm exhibit systematically larger size, width, and length compared to the TempestExtremes (TE) method. The AR metrics developed from this work can be routinely applied for model benchmarking and during the development cycle to trace performance evolution across model versions or generations and set objective targets for the improvement of models. They can also be used by operational centers to perform near-real-time climate and extreme event impact assessments as part of their forecast cycle.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗