Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Critical endpoint”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

National User Resource for Biological Accelerator Mass Spectrometry Annual Report

The National User Resource for Biological Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (User Resource) will provide isotopic analysis (primarily radiocarbon or 14C) by accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) for NIH- funded researchers across the United States and will be the only User Resource of its type in the United States. The User Resource will provide measurement capability and expertise to a research community that requires highly sensitive, quantitative isotope analyses. Since commissioning a new accelerator mass spectrometer in June 2014, we have measured over 4000 samples a year for collaborators and service users. The User Resource will enable us to continue to meet these research needs, as well as provide for new users whose research programs would benefit from AMS as a measurement tool. The User Resource’s forte will be ultra-high sensitivity quantitation of radiocarbon and selected other radioisotopes for research studies where isotopes are required. Radioisotope labeling studies have been and will continue to be an important tool for addressing many complex biomedical science problems. AMS is a specialized and unique type of mass spectrometry that provides absolute quantitation of radiocarbon and other relevant radioisotopes with extreme sensitivity, having limits of detection in real samples on the order of a few attomol/mg of sample at measurement precisions of ~3%. It is the only instrumental method capable of quantifying radioisotope-labeled agents routinely in real-world samples with such precision and sensitivity. The sensitivity of AMS allows for the quantification of radiolabeled metabolites in extremely complex matrices of cells and organisms at very low concentrations and in small samples. AMS allows studies to be conducted without perturbing metabolism leading to more relevant quantification of metabolic rates and pathways. In addition, it enables quantification of pharmacokinetic and metabolic properties of toxicants at environmentally relevant concentrations in model systems as well as the ability to quantify pharmacokinetics and other molecular endpoints directly in humans. Such quantitative assessments can 1) improve risk assessment for toxicants, 2) address safety and efficacy considerations for therapeutic entities, 3) deepen understanding of xenobiotic and intermediary metabolism, 4) help understand the interactions between critical molecular pathways, and 5) improve efforts to model and predict various metabolic and biological states. These capabilities have been applied in a number of areas including research in carcinogenesis, toxicology, nutrition, pharmacology/drug development and basic biological science.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Grey Galaxies’ as an endpoint of the Kerr-AdS superradiant instability

Kerr-AdS d+1 black holes for d ≥ 3 suffer from classical superradiant instabilities over a range of masses above extremality. We conjecture that these instabilities settle down into Grey Galaxies (GGs) — a new class of coarse-grained solutions to Einstein’s equations which we construct in d = 3. Grey Galaxies are made up of a black hole with critical angular velocity ω = 1 in the ‘centre’ of AdS, surrounded by a large flat disk of thermal bulk gas that revolves around the centre of AdS at the speed of light. The gas carries a finite fraction of the total energy, as its parametrically low energy density and large radius are inversely related. GGs exist at masses that extend all the way down to the unitarity bound. Their thermodynamics is that of a weakly interacting mix of Kerr-AdS black holes and the bulk gas. Their boundary stress tensor is the sum of a smooth ‘black hole’ contribution and a peaked gas contribution that is delta function localized around the equator of the boundary sphere in the large N limit. We also construct another class of solutions with the same charges; ‘Revolving Black Holes (RBHs)’. RBHs are macroscopically charged SO(d, 2) descendants of AdS-Kerr solutions, and consist of ω = 1 black holes revolving around the centre of AdS at a fixed radial location but in a quantum wave function in the angular directions. RBH solutions are marginally entropically subdominant to GG solutions and do not constitute the endpoint of the superradiant instability. Nonetheless, we argue that supersymmetric versions of these solutions have interesting implications for the spectrum of supersymmetric states in, e.g. N = 4 Yang-Mills theory.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

D2U: Data Driven User Emulation for the Enhancement of Cyber Testing, Training, and Data Set Generation

Whether testing intrusion detection systems, conducting training exercises, or creating data sets to be used by the broader cybersecurity community, realistic user behavior is a critical component of a cyber range. Existing methods either rely on network level data or replay recorded user actions to approximate real users in a network. Our work is the first to produce generative models trained on actual user data (sequences of application usage) collected on endpoints. Once trained to the user's behavioral data, these models can generate novel sequences of actions %that appear to come from the same distribution as the training data. These sequences of actions are then fed to our custom software via configuration files, which replicate those behaviors on end devices. Notably, our models are platform agnostic and could generate behavior data for any emulation software package. In this paper we present our model generation process, software architecture, and an initial evaluation of the fidelity of our models. Our software is currently deployed in a cyber range to help evaluate the efficacy of defensive cyber technologies. We suggest additional ways that the cyber community as a whole can benefit from more realistic user behavior emulation. The data used to train our model, as well as sample configuration files produced by the model, are available at [redacted].

Oesch, T↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparative Analyses of Bioequivalence Assessment Methods for In Vitro Permeation Test Data

ABSTRACT For topical, dermatological drug products, an in vitro option to determine bioequivalence (BE) between test and reference products is recommended. In particular, in vitro permeation test (IVPT) data analysis uses a reference‐scaled approach for two primary endpoints, cumulative penetration amount (AMT) and maximum flux ( J max ), which takes the within donor variability into consideration. In 2022, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) published a draft IVPT guidance that includes statistical analysis methods for both balanced and unbalanced cases of IVPT study data. This work presents a comprehensive evaluation of various methodologies used to estimate critical parameters essential in assessing BE. Specifically, we investigate the performance of the FDA draft IVPT guidance approach alongside alternative empirical and model‐based methods utilizing mixed‐effects models. Our analyses include both simulated scenarios and real‐world studies. In simulated scenarios, empirical formulas consistently demonstrate robustness in approximating the true model, particularly in effectively addressing treatment–donor interactions. Conversely, the effectiveness of model‐based approaches heavily relies on precise model selection, which significantly influences their results. The research emphasizes the importance of accurate model selection in model‐based BE assessment methodologies. It sheds light on the advantages of empirical formulas, highlighting their reliability compared to model‐based approaches and offers valuable implications for BE assessments. Our findings underscore the significance of robust methodologies and provide essential insights to advance their understanding and application in the assessment of BE, employed in IVPT data analysis.

Leon, Sami↗
DOE OSTI2023

Imprinting and Reproductive Health: A Toxicological Perspective

This overview discusses the role of imprinting in the development of an organism, and how exposure to environmental chemicals during fetal development leads to the physiological and biochemical changes that can have adverse lifelong effects on the health of the offspring. There has been a recent upsurge in the use of chemical products in everyday life. These chemicals include industrial byproducts, pesticides, dietary supplements, and pharmaceutical products. They mimic the natural estrogens and bind to estradiol receptors. Consequently, they reduce the number of receptors available for ligand binding. This leads to a faulty signaling in the neuroendocrine system during the critical developmental process of ‘imprinting’. Imprinting causes structural and organizational differentiation in male and female reproductive organs, sexual behavior, bone mineral density, and the metabolism of exogenous and endogenous chemical substances. Several studies conducted on animal models and epidemiological studies provide profound evidence that altered imprinting causes various developmental and reproductive abnormalities and other diseases in humans. Altered metabolism can be measured by various endpoints such as the profile of cytochrome P-450 enzymes (CYP450’s), xenobiotic metabolite levels, and DNA adducts. The importance of imprinting in the potentiation or attenuation of toxic chemicals is discussed.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Screening and Validation of Molecular Targeted Radiosensitizers

The development of molecular targeted drugs with radiation and chemotherapy is critically important for improving the outcomes of patients with hard-to-treat, potentially curable cancers. However, too many preclinical studies have not translated into successful radiation oncology trials. Major contributing factors to this insufficiency include poor reproducibility of preclinical data, inadequate preclinical modeling of intertumoral genomic heterogeneity that influences treatment sensitivity in the clinic, and a reliance on tumor growth delay instead of local control (TCD50) endpoints. There exists an urgent need to overcome these barriers to facilitate successful clinical translation of targeted radiosensitizers. To this end, we have used 3-dimensional (3D) cell culture assays to better model tumor behavior in vivo. Examples of successful prediction of in vivo effects with these 3D assays include radiosensitization of head and neck cancers by inhibiting epidermal growth factor receptor or focal adhesion kinase signaling, and radioresistance associated with oncogenic mutation of KRAS. To address the issue of tumor heterogeneity, we leveraged institutional resources that allow high-throughput 3D screening of radiation combinations with small-molecule inhibitors across genomically characterized cell lines from lung, head and neck, and pancreatic cancers. This high-throughput screen is expected to uncover genomic biomarkers that will inform the successful clinical translation of targeted agents from the National Cancer Institute Cancer Therapy Evaluation Program portfolio and other sources. Screening “hits” need to be subjected to refinement studies that include clonogenic assays, addition of disease-specific chemotherapeutics, target/biomarker validation, and integration of patient-derived tumor models. The chemoradiosensitizing activities of the most promising drugs should be confirmed in TCD50 assays in xenograft models with or without relevant biomarker and using clinically relevant radiation fractionation. We predict that appropriately validated and biomarker-directed targeted therapies will have a higher likelihood than past efforts of being successfully incorporated into the standard management of hard-to-treat tumors.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Filling the Gaps: A Bayesian Mixture Model for Imputing Missing Soil Water Content Data

ABSTRACT Soil water content (SWC) data are central to evaluating how soil moisture varies over time and space and influences critical plant and ecosystem functions, especially in water‐limited drylands. However, sensors that record SWC at high frequencies often malfunction, leading to incomplete timeseries and limiting our understanding of dryland ecosystem dynamics. We developed an analytical approach to impute missing SWC data, which we tested at six eddy flux tower sites along an elevation gradient in the southwestern United States. We impute missing data as a mixture of linearly interpolated SWC between the observed endpoints of a missing data gap and SWC simulated by an ecosystem water balance model (SOILWAT2). Within a Bayesian framework, we allowed the relative utility (mixture weight) of each component (linearly interpolated vs. SOILWAT2) to vary by depth, site and gap characteristics. We explored “fixed” weights versus “dynamic” weights that vary as a function of cumulative precipitation, average temperature, and time since the start of the gap. Both models estimated missing SWC data well ( R 2 = 0.70–0.88 vs. 0.75–0.91 for fixed vs. dynamic weights, respectively), but the utility of linearly interpolated versus SOILWAT2 values depended on site and depth. SOILWAT2 was more useful for more arid sites, shallower depths, longer and warmer gaps and gaps that received greater precipitation. Overall, the mixture model reliably gap‐fills SWC, while lending insight into processes governing SWC dynamics. This approach to impute missing data could be adapted to accommodate more than two mixture components and other types of environmental timeseries.

Ogle, Kiona [School of Informatics, Computing, and↗
DOE OSTI2023

Ex vivo to in vivo model of malignant peripheral nerve sheath tumors for precision oncology

Malignant peripheral nerve sheath tumors (MPNST) are aggressive soft tissue sarcomas that often develop in patients with neurofibromatosis type 1 (NF1). To address the critical need for novel therapeutics in MPNST, we aimed to establish an ex vivo 3D platform that accurately captured the genomic diversity of MPNST and could be utilized in a medium-throughput manner for drug screening studies to be validated in vivo using patient-derived xenografts (PDX). Genomic analysis was performed on all PDX-tumor pairs. Selected PDX were harvested for assembly into 3D microtissues. Based on prior work in our labs, we evaluated drugs (trabectedin, olaparib, and mirdametinib) ex vivo and in vivo. For 3D microtissue studies, cell viability was the endpoint as assessed by Zeiss Axio Observer. For PDX drug studies, tumor volume was measured twice weekly. Bulk RNA sequencing was performed to identify pathways enriched in cells. We developed 13 NF1-associated MPNST-PDX and identified mutations or structural abnormalities in NF1 (100%), SUZ12 (85%), EED (15%), TP53 (15%), CDKN2A (85%), and chromosome 8 gain (77%). We successfully assembled PDX into 3D microtissues, categorized as robust (>90% viability at 48 h), good (>50%), or unusable (<50%). We evaluated drug response to “robust” or “good” microtissues, namely MN-2, JH-2-002, JH-2-079-c, and WU-225. Drug response ex vivo predicted drug response in vivo, and enhanced drug effects were observed in select models. These data support the successful establishment of a novel 3D platform for drug discovery and MPNST biology exploration in a system representative of the human condition.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Laser-driven high-resolution MeV x-ray tomography

The need for high-resolution MeV x-ray tomography to observe the three-dimensional structure of dense, large-sized objects is rapidly increasing for the non-destructive evaluation of critical additively manufactured parts, national security, and other applications. We report a demonstration of high-resolution MeV computed tomography of a dense, large object with a laser-driven x-ray source. A record detector-limited MeV radiograph resolution of < 200 µm as determined with the Bennett approximation of the point spread function was achieved by irradiating millimeter-thick tungsten targets with 300 TW femtosecond laser pulses at a 0.5 Hz repetition rate. A tungsten alloy step wedge spectrometer indicates that the peak of the x-ray emission is between 1 and 2 MeV, with an endpoint energy of 19 MeV. To illustrate the radiographic imaging capability of the system, a tomographic reconstruction of a nickel superalloy turbine blade ( maximum $ρr$ = 139 g/cm 2 ) with sub-millimeter resolution was performed using 2160 individual radiographs. The small x-ray source size opens the prospect of extremely high-resolution tomographs of large, dense objects. This laser-driven approach has major advantages for non-destructive evaluation.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Graph Analytics on Jellyfish topology

Because large unstructured datasets is important for many science domains, distributed graph analytics is critical to many scientists. Unfortunately, obtaining scaling and performance for irregular communication is challenging because contemporary network interconnects are primarily designed to maximize bandwidths of fixed-neighborhoods large-message exchanges (e.g., stencils). Although there is no consensus on the “best” network topologies for irregular communication, unstructured graph-based interconnects can be more suitable. We analyze three popular graph workloads – clustering, pattern enumeration, and traversal — on comparable networks (in terms of resources and costs) constructed from Jellyfish Random Regular, Dragonfly and Fat tree topologies, varying the routing algorithms. Using packet-level simulations, we demonstrate up to 60% improvement in communication time with Jellyfish due to diversity of the short paths between arbitrary endpoints, which can reduce overall network stalls and congestion.

Graph Analytics, network topology, interconnect, H↗
DOE OSTI2024

H-Canyon Flowsheet for the Neutralization of Dissolved Fast Critical Assembly (FCA) Fuel

The H-Canyon facility will be dissolving unirradiated stainless-steel clad Fast Critical Assembly (FCA) fuel in HNO3 and neutralizing the resulting solution with 50 wt% NaOH with no recovery operations prior to transfer to the Concentration, Storage, and Transfer Facility (CSTF). There are two types of FCA fuel, including a Pu-Al metal alloy and a mixed U and Pu oxide. H-Canyon anticipates dissolving 16 batches of the metal fuel and two batches of the oxide fuel. Potassium fluoride will be added to the dissolver solution at 0.05 M to promote dissolution. Gadolinium will be added after the dissolution as a thermal neutron poison for criticality control. H-Canyon requested that SRNL evaluate Gd:239Pu equivalent (239PuEq) ratios of 1:1 and 10:1. The neutralization process precipitates metals including actinides, Gd, and cladding components resulting in a slurry. Caustic neutralization is a routine H-Canyon operation, but the FCA dissolver solution will be unique relative to solutions that are typically processed due to the stainless-steel components, high HNO3 concentration of ~8.5 M, and an initial Pu concentration of up to 4 g/L. Previous neutralization studies have been performed for Pu containing solutions but at less than half the initial Pu concentration and much lower initial HNO3 concentrations. Experimental neutralizations targeted a final free hydroxide (OH-) concentration of 0.6 M as this was anticipated to be the final endpoint, but H-Canyon now expects the endpoint to be 1.2 M OH-. The purpose of this study was to characterize the distribution of the actinide, Gd, and cladding components between the precipitate and supernate, determine if the slurry will back up in the header during the transfer to the CSTF, and determine if solids will settle in the pipeline during the transfer.

Mills, Matthew S.↗
DOE OSTI2021

A dehydrated, aseptically-processed human amnion/chorion allograft accelerates healing in a delayed murine excisional wound model

Since chronic, non-healing wounds represent an increasing source of economic and temporal burden for patients who suffer from them and healthcare professionals that treat them, therapeutic modalities that promote closure of delayed and non-healing wounds are of utmost importance. Recent clinical results of allografts derived from amnion and chorion placental layers encourage further investigation of the mechanisms underlying clinical efficacy of these products for treatment of wounds. Here, we utilized a diabetic murine splinted excisional wound model to investigate the effects of a dehydrated human amnion/chorion-derived allograft (dHACA) on delayed wound healing, as well as the effects of dehydrated allograft derived solely from amnion tissue of the same donor. We examined wound healing by histological endpoint analysis, and we assessed other parameters relevant to functional wound healing in the wound bed including angiogenesis, macrophage phenotypes, proliferative activity, and gene expression. Herein we demonstrate that application of dHACA to a murine diabetic model of delayed wound progression results in better macroscale wound resolution outcomes, including rate of closure, compared to unaided wound progression, while dehydrated human amnion allograft (dHAA) fails to improve outcomes. Improved gross wound resolution observed with dHACA was accompanied by increased granulation tissue formation, proliferation and vascular ingrowth observed in the wound bed, early macrophage polarization towards anti-inflammatory phenotypes, and downregulation of pro-fibrotic gene expression. Overall, our data suggest that improvements in the rates of delayed wound closure observed from combined amnion/chorion allografts are associated with modulation of critical cellular and tissue processes commonly found to be dysregulated in delayed healing wounds, including proliferation, vascularization, inflammation, and re-epithelialization.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Review of machine learning and deep learning models for toxicity prediction

The ever-increasing number of chemicals has raised public concerns due to their adverse effects on human health and the environment. To protect public health and the environment, it is critical to assess the toxicity of these chemicals. Traditional in vitro and in vivo toxicity assays are complicated, costly, and time-consuming and may face ethical issues. These constraints raise the need for alternative methods for assessing the toxicity of chemicals. Recently, due to the advancement of machine learning algorithms and the increase in computational power, many toxicity prediction models have been developed using various machine learning and deep learning algorithms such as support vector machine, random forest, k-nearest neighbors, ensemble learning, and deep neural network. This review summarizes the machine learning- and deep learning-based toxicity prediction models developed in recent years. Support vector machine and random forest are the most popular machine learning algorithms, and hepatotoxicity, cardiotoxicity, and carcinogenicity are the frequently modeled toxicity endpoints in predictive toxicology. It is known that datasets impact model performance. The quality of datasets used in the development of toxicity prediction models using machine learning and deep learning is vital to the performance of the developed models. The different toxicity assignments for the same chemicals among different datasets of the same type of toxicity have been observed, indicating benchmarking datasets is needed for developing reliable toxicity prediction models using machine learning and deep learning algorithms. This review provides insights into current machine learning models in predictive toxicology, which are expected to promote the development and application of toxicity prediction models in the future.

Research & Experimental Medicine↗
DOE OSTI2021

Regulatory Considerations in the Development of Radiation-Drug Combinations

Radiation therapy remains a fundamental treatment for patients with cancer. Despite an increasing number of targeted molecular therapies that are US Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved for the treatment of patients with metastatic disease, there has been very little progress made in terms of drugs used concurrently with radiation. This article reviews the existing regulatory framework in which cancer drugs may be developed for use in combination with radiation therapy from the perspective of the FDA. To briefly summarize: (1) nonclinical studies are a critical first step to ensure that drugs are safe for use in humans; however, additional nonclinical studies of a drug with radiation may not be required before a clinical trial in combination with radiation as long as the safety profile of the drug has been characterized in humans. The FDA determines the quality of evidence required before studying a drug in combination with radiation on a case-by-case basis. (2) Although often impractical to consider late toxicities during dose-escalation, late adverse events should be captured and taken into consideration when determining the final dose and schedule to take forward during drug development. (3) There are a number of expedited programs for cancer drug development, including accelerated approval, a conditional approval that allows for use of earlier clinical endpoints when the data suggests a clinically meaningful improvement over available therapy. (4) The Agency encourages sponsors to discuss their development plan with the appropriate FDA review division in formal regulatory meetings.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Universal Utility Data Exchange (UUDEX) – Security and Administration: Cybersecurity of Energy Delivery Systems (CEDS) Research and Development

A critical component of the Universal Utility Data Exchange (UUDEX) approach is the integrated security contained within its processing. This document describes how that security is designed and expected to be implemented by UUDEX Implementations (U-Implementations), including the UUDEX Server (U-Server) and UUDEX Clients (U-Clients). The UUDEX security hierarchy consists of three levels: 1. The UUDEX Instance (U-Instance) itself, which sits at the top of the hierarchy and contains the U-Server, the UUDEX Identity Authority (U-Identity Authority), and the UUDEX Administrator (U-Administrator) functions; 2. A group of one or more UUDEX Participants (U-Participants) that present “organizations” that participate in the U-Instance and contains the UUDEX Administrator Participant (U-U-Administrator Participant) function; 3. A group of one or more UUDEX Endpoints (U-Endpoints) that represent the individual UUDEX Publish Clients (U-Publish Client) responsible for supplying data to the U-Instance that is consumed by UUDEX Subscriber Clients (U-Subscriber Clients). U-Endpoints can be either autonomous devices that publish and subscribe data such as data exchange servers found in supervisory control and data acquisition and energy management systems, or they can be tied to users of applications that, for example, submit DOE OE-417 disturbance reports. U-Participants and U-Endpoints can be organized into UUDEX Groups (U-Groups). Any number of U-Participants or U-Endpoints can be members of a U-Group. A given U-Participant or U-Endpoint can be a member of multiple U-Groups, but a U-Group cannot contain other U-Groups. For example, a U-Group could be created to contain all U-Participant Transmission Operators within the purview of a Reliability Coordinator, and another U-Group could be created to contain all U-Participant Generator Operators within the purview of a Reliability Coordinator. U-Participants that are both Transmission Operators and Generator Operators would be members of both U-Groups. U-Participants, U-Endpoints, and U-Groups are used in the access control structures to provide access to individual UUDEX Subjects (U-Subjects). U-Groups are created by the U-Administrator and are managed by the U-Administrator or the designated U-Group Managers. U-Endpoints can be assigned UUDEX Roles (U-Roles) that can be used to further restrict access. U-Roles are assigned to individual U-Endpoints. For example, a U-Role of “Security Analyst” could be used to restrict which U-Endpoints can publish or subscribe security incident reports and vulnerability notifications, while a U-Role of “Transmission Planner” can be used to restrict which U-Endpoints can publish power system model updates. U-Role definitions are created by the U-Administrator, but the U-Roles are assigned to U-Endpoints by their respective UUDEX Participant Administrators (U-Participant Administrator). Because all information required to make security decisions is either included within the U-Endpoint’s X.509 digital certificate or stored in a datastore on the U-Server, all security decisions are performed and enforced within the U-Server. This reduces the complexity of the U-Client code and minimizes the chance for compromise of the integrity of the UUDEX security features.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dose-finding studies in drug development for rare genetic diseases

The small patient populations inherent to rare genetic diseases present many challenges to the traditional drug development paradigm. One major challenge is generating sufficient data in early phase studies to inform dose selection for later phase studies and dose optimization for clinical use of the drug. However, optimizing the benefit-risk profile of drugs through appropriate dose selection during drug development is critical for all drugs, including those being developed to treat rare diseases. Recognizing the challenges of conducting dose finding studies in rare disease populations and the importance of dose selection and optimization for successful drug development, we assessed the dose-finding studies and analyses conducted for drugs recently approved for rare genetic diseases. Of the 40 marketing applications for new molecular entity (NME) drugs and biologics approved by the United States Food and Drug Administration for rare genetic diseases from 2015 to 2020, 21 (53%) of the development programs conducted at least one dedicated dose-finding study. In addition, the majority of drug development programs conducted clinical studies in healthy subjects and included population pharmacokinetic and exposure–response analyses; some programs also conducted clinical studies in patient populations other than the disease for which the drug was initially approved. The majority of primary endpoints utilized in dedicated dose-finding studies were biomarkers, and the primary endpoint of the safety and efficacy study matched the primary endpoint used in the dose finding study in 9 of 13 (69%) drug development programs where primary study endpoints were assessed. Our study showed that NME drug development programs for rare genetic diseases utilize multiple data sources for dosing information, including studies in healthy subjects, population pharmacokinetic analyses, and exposure–response analyses. In addition, our results indicate that biomarkers play a key role in dose-finding studies for rare genetic disease drug development programs. Our findings highlight the need to develop study designs and methods to allow adequate dose-finding efforts within rare disease drug development programs that help overcome the challenges presented by low patient prevalence and other factors. Furthermore, the frequent reliance on biomarkers as endpoints for dose-finding studies underscores the importance of biomarker development in rare diseases.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quantum fate of the Choptuik naked singularity

Classical critical collapse provides a dynamical route from smooth initial data to a naked singularity, representing a sharper violation of predictability than ordinary black hole singularities. We argue that this distinction is erased by quantum backreaction. Building on the semiclassical interior analysis, where quantum self-energy of the collapsing matter generates a universal growing mode and a finite mass gap, we study the exterior naked singularity region that determines global visibility in the Einstein-scalar system. We analyze controlled exterior models in both $2+1$ and $3+1$ dimensions. In the former, smooth matching and physical boundary conditions analytically select a vacuum polarization state, whose backreaction cloaks the classically naked region by a quantum trapped branch. In the latter, numerical horizon tracing shows that near a quantum-shifted threshold the exterior develops finite-mass marginally trapped surfaces rather than a zero-mass naked endpoint. These results suggest a global quantum picture in which the Choptuik naked singularity shares the fate of an ordinary black hole singularity: quantum effects push the putative Cauchy horizon behind a quantum-generated horizon, thereby reducing the loss of predictability to the standard black hole evaporation problem.

FOS: Physical sciences↗
DOE OSTI2026

From Ensemble Climate to Ensemble Impacts

Many climate-risk tools rely on ensemble mean projections or endpoint climate snapshots to characterize future hazards. Although convenient for communication, these representations remove the statistical, temporal, and physical information that real infrastructure systems respond to. Infrastructure degradation and failure arise from extremes, sequences, cumulative stress, compound hazards, and nonlinear fragility relationships, none of which survive ensemble averaging or temporal compression. Power-system failure statistics and cascading failure models further show that infrastructure risk is dominated by tail events and path-dependent dynamics rather than by mean conditions. This paper demonstrates why ensemble mean or endpoint-only climate representations are mathematically and physically inconsistent with engineering-grade risk analysis. We outline a model-resolved, time-series-based workflow that preserves extremes, variability, and sequencing by propagating each climate-model realization independently through hazard formation, exposure, fragility, and cascading failure mechanisms. Taking the ensemble of impacts—rather than the ensemble of climate—provides a defensible, physically coherent foundation for infrastructure resilience planning, regulatory compliance, and long-term investment decisions.

54 - ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES/GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ↗