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Deep Cyber-Physical Situational Awareness for Energy Systems: A Secure Foundation for Next-Generation Energy Management

This document provides the final report for the CYPRES project. The purpose is (1) to highlight and summarize its major accomplishments and (2) to provide guidance on how its outcomes have informed and can inform important additional research and technology transfer. The goal of CYPRES was the research, development, and demonstration of a security-oriented next generation cyber-physical EMS for electric power systems that detects malicious and abnormal events through the fusion of cyber and physical data. To achieve this, the CYPRES project team researched, developed, and built a prototype of the solution, referred to as the CYPRES EMS. The CYPRES EMS is a proof-of-concept cyber-physical platform that demonstrates the management of the energy system, communications, security, and cyber-physical grid modeling and analytics. As part of the capabilities of the CYPRES EMS, the team designed and developed a suite of power system applications for monitoring, risk analyses, detection, and control that are inherently cyberaware. At its core, the project aimed to research, develop, and demonstrate a security-oriented next-generation cyber-physical Energy Management System (EMS) capable of detecting malicious and abnormal events through the innovative fusion of cyber and physical data. This approach represents a fundamental shift from traditional EMS, reimagining how critical infrastructure can be protected through unified cyber-aware and physics-aware secure data flow pipelines. The project’s cornerstone deliverable, the CYPRES EMS, serves as a proof-of-concept cyber-physical platform that revolutionizes the management of energy systems, communications, security, and cyber-physical grid modeling and analytics. This prototype implements a comprehensive suite of power system applications for monitoring, risk analyses, detection, and control, all designed with inherent cyber awareness. The system’s architecture extends from end-devices in the field through to control center applications, establishing a secure and resilient control framework that addresses the challenges posed by diverse devices of unknown trustworthiness connecting to modern power systems. Through this innovative approach to deep cyber-physical situational awareness, the CYPRES project not only advances the state-of-the-art in energy infrastructure protection but also establishes a new paradigm for how EMS can be designed, deployed, and operated in an increasingly complex threat landscape. The findings and developments from this project provide crucial insights for stakeholders across the energy sector, offering a blueprint for enhancing the reliability and resilience of our nation’s critical energy infrastructure in the face of evolving cyber threats.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Scalable Control Co-design for Resilient-by-Design Cyber Physical Systems

Critical infrastructure networks, such as power and transportation networks, are often modelled as cyber-physical systems. With ever increasing complexity of these systems, there is a need for newer and more relevant metrics and design tools that will co-optimize the physical system components and control policies to guarantee resilience against cyber and natural threats. To this end, a simulation-based control co-design computational framework that will concurrently determine the system and control parameters of a cyber-physical system to meet pre-specified resilience, operational and economic objectives has been developed. The capabilities of the developed co-design engine are demonstrated by designing the physical components and control parameters of a microgrid system that will meet its resiliency objectives when subjected to various cyber and physical threats.

42 ENGINEERING

Bridging the Gap Between Requirements and Model Analysis : Evaluation on Ten Cyber-Physical Challenge Problems

Formal verfication and simulation are powerful tools to validate requirements against complex systems. [Problem] Requirements are developed in early stages of the software lifecycle and are typically written in ambiguous natural language. There is a gap between such requirements and formal notations that can be used by verification tools, and lack of support for proper association of requirements with software artifacts for verification. [Principal idea] We propose to write requirements in an intuitive, structured natural language with formal semantics, and to support formalization and model/code verification as a smooth, well-integrated process. [Contribution] We have developed an end-to-end, open source requirements analysis framework that checks Simulink models against requirements written in structured natural language. Our framework is built in the Formal Requirements Elicitation Tool (fret); we use fret's requirements language named fretish, and formalization of fretish requirements in temporal logics. Our proposed framework contributes the following features: 1) automatic extraction of Simulink model information and association of fretish requirements with target model signals and components; 2) translation of temporal logic formulas into synchronous dataflow cocospec specifications as well as Simulink monitors, to be used by verification tools; we establish correctness of our translation through extensive automated testing; 3) interpretation of counterexamples produced by verification tools back at requirements level. These features support a tight integration and feedback loop between high level requirements and their analysis. We demonstrate our approach on a major case study: the Ten Lockheed Martin Cyber-Physical, aerospace-inspired challenge problems.

Mavridou, Anastasia

FIREWHEEL

SAND2024-16910O FIREWHEEL is a tool for experiment orchestration that assists a user in building and controlling repeatable experiments of distributed network systems at any scale. This version also includes FIREWHEEL v2.7 and its associated companion model components. With FIREWHEEL, users can easily construct modular parts of a cyber system, called Model Components. The Model Components can be combined to form an experiment. Most experiments are then instantiated using an emulation tool, such as minimega.

Kajder, Thomas

Coreii - Scout

COREII Scout employs React, Vite, TypeScript, Tailwind, and Daisy UI for its graphical user interface (GUI), offering both dark and light modes. The code is modular, with components and reusable wrappers to enhance efficiency. The primary goal of COREII Scout is to aid analysts in collecting and analyzing various sources related to cyber attacks, utilizing models to automate the report writing process. It uses Named Entity Recognition (NER), a type of Natural Language Processing (NLP), to extract key entities from each source. Analysts review and classify these entities using the COREII Attack Chain Estimator (ACE), adding their comments. Ultimately, a Large Language Model (LLM) generates a detailed report with user guidance. This setup ensures a streamlined and effective approach to cyber attack analysis and reporting.

Pluth, Adam [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Idah

Differential Equation Approximation Using Gradient-Boosted Quantile Regression

The operation of cyber-physical-human (CPH) systems is subject to various epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. Overall trustworthiness of CPH systems relies on the trustworthiness of its components and their interactions. It is important that computational models comprising the cyber component of CPH provide predictions accompanied by a measure of confidence in model outcomes. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) and propagation are especially important in safety critical CPH systems. Gradient-boosted trees is a modeling approach capable both of learning the dynamics of a system and performing UQ. In this paper, we devise a method for using gradient boosting to learn the dynamics of a second order differential equation and estimate uncertainty at the same time. We do this by creating a custom loss function that trains the model to approximate the second derivative of a noisy time series, and to penalize based on a parameter that corresponds to the desired quantile. The resulting gradient boosting model can simulate stochastic trajectories of the system given a single starting point, that is, it can estimate both the expected trajectory and its uncertainty. We show that the uncertainty estimation is well calibrated and that the model can learn the dynamics even in the presence of noise. We demonstrate the approach on a simple cartpole system.

Autonomous systems

SimCheck: An Expressive Type System for Simulink

MATLAB Simulink is a member of a class of visual languages that are used for modeling and simulating physical and cyber-physical systems. A Simulink model consists of blocks with input and output ports connected using links that carry signals. We extend the type system of Simulink with annotations and dimensions/units associated with ports and links. These types can capture invariants on signals as well as relations between signals. We define a type-checker that checks the wellformedness of Simulink blocks with respect to these type annotations. The type checker generates proof obligations that are solved by SRI's Yices solver for satisfiability modulo theories (SMT). This translation can be used to detect type errors, demonstrate counterexamples, generate test cases, or prove the absence of type errors. Our work is an initial step toward the symbolic analysis of MATLAB Simulink models.

Roy, Pritam

Computational Models of Trustworthiness and Trust in Autonomous Cyber-Physical-Human Systems

In this paper, we propose an approach to developing a concept of actionable trust in multi-agent,cyber-physical-human systems in safety-critical and time-critical environment of air transportation. Actionable trust requires computational models of trustworthiness and trust, for use during system design and in real time, during operations. We describe the models, examine their computability and scalability, as well as what remains to be done.

Autonomous Systems

Analysis and Monitoring of Cyber-Physical Systems via Environmental Domain Knowledge & Modeling

While verifying adherence to a specification (i.e., specification-based testing) is important, the results are only as valid as the specification itself. Problematically, verifying a system specification must be done within the context of changing or even unknown environmental domain knowledge that could render the specification ineffective or incorrect. This issue is even more apparent in the context of self-adaptive systems, where uncertainty in both the system configuration and environment can impact the validity of the system. This paper introduces a method to explicitly model domain knowledge of the environment as a secondary system to enable design-time verification against documented environmental assumptions (i.e., those elements external to the system). In addition, run-time monitors are used to detect scenarios in the actual environment not specified by the modeled environmental domain knowledge. Rather than simply identifying unexpected inputs, our approach is able to identify run-time violations of the environmental domain knowledge, even when inputs appear valid based on the domain assumptions embedded in the system specification. These violations can then be used to correspondingly update the system and environmental specifications via automated run-time adaptation or subsequent design-time revisions. We illustrate our approach by applying our method to a running example of a goal-based model of a baby monitor.

Byron DeVries

Cyber-Threat Assessment for the Air Traffic Management System: A Network Controls Approach

Air transportation networks are being disrupted with increasing frequency by failures in their cyber- (computing, communication, control) systems. Whether these cyber- failures arise due to deliberate attacks or incidental errors, they can have far-reaching impact on the performance of the air traffic control and management systems. For instance, a computer failure in the Washington DC Air Route Traffic Control Center (ZDC) on August 15, 2015, caused nearly complete closure of the Centers airspace for several hours. This closure had a propagative impact across the United States National Airspace System, causing changed congestion patterns and requiring placement of a suite of traffic management initiatives to address the capacity reduction and congestion. A snapshot of traffic on that day clearly shows the closure of the ZDC airspace and the resulting congestion at its boundary, which required augmented traffic management at multiple locations. Cyber- events also have important ramifications for private stakeholders, particularly the airlines. During the last few months, computer-system issues have caused several airlines fleets to be grounded for significant periods of time: these include United Airlines (twice), LOT Polish Airlines, and American Airlines. Delays and regional stoppages due to cyber- events are even more common, and may have myriad causes (e.g., failure of the Department of Homeland Security systems needed for security check of passengers, see [3]). The growing frequency of cyber- disruptions in the air transportation system reflects a much broader trend in the modern society: cyber- failures and threats are becoming increasingly pervasive, varied, and impactful. In consequence, an intense effort is underway to develop secure and resilient cyber- systems that can protect against, detect, and remove threats, see e.g. and its many citations. The outcomes of this wide effort on cyber- security are applicable to the air transportation infrastructure, and indeed security solutions are being implemented in the current system. While these security solutions are important, they only provide a piecemeal solution. Particular computers or communication channels are protected from particular attacks, without a holistic view of the air transportation infrastructure. On the other hand, the above-listed incidents highlight that a holistic approach is needed, for several reasons. First, the air transportation infrastructure is a large scale cyber-physical system with multiple stakeholders and diverse legacy assets. It is impractical to protect every cyber- asset from known and unknown disruptions, and instead a strategic view of security is needed. Second, disruptions to the cyber- system can incur complex propagative impacts across the air transportation network, including its physical and human assets. Also, these implications of cyber- events are exacerbated or modulated by other disruptions and operational specifics, e.g. severe weather, operator fatigue or error, etc. These characteristics motivate a holistic and strategic perspective on protecting the air transportation infrastructure from cyber- events. The analysis of cyber- threats to the air traffic system is also inextricably tied to the integration of new autonomy into the airspace. The replacement of human operators with cyber functions leaves the network open to new cyber threats, which must be modeled and managed. Paradoxically, the mitigation of cyber events in the airspace will also likely require additional autonomy, given the fast time scale and myriad pathways of cyber-attacks which must be managed. The assessment of new vulnerabilities upon integration of new autonomy is also a key motivation for a holistic perspective on cyber threats.

Complex Networks

Biomimicry in Clean Energy Futures: Workshop Report

On July 25, 2023, PNNL hosted a workshop to explore the potential for biomimicry – looking to nature and biology for solutions to human engineering challenges – to support clean energy futures and associated research. Participants represented a range of technical expertise ranging from ecological modeling to cyber-security. Workshop supporting material featured a literature review of biomimetic approaches in all renewable energy technologies and inspired from all kingdoms of life. Participants noted clear contrasts between natural design strategies and clean energy deployment and the electric grid. They also agreed that biomimicry offered a rich area of research potential but lacked definitive benefits or results in commercialization phases.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

ResDesign: Resilient by Design Platform for CPS Assessment and Validation

ResDesign project has developed integrated capabilities to help cyber physical system modelers and analysts to evaluate vulnerabilities and resilience of such systems using co-simulation-based attack testbed, graph-based visualization and monitoring tool, and Bayesian optimization-based co-design capability. The project demonstrates a collection of attack scenarios and use cases in an integrated software environment.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Atmospheric planetary-wave response to external forcing

A summary of the progress report is given, covering the following areas: atmospheric circulation, planetary waves, adaption of the model to the Cyber 205, continental heat flux anomalies, and nonlinear evolution of inertial instabilities in the tropics.

Stevens, D. E.

A Verification Framework for Runtime Assurance of Autonomous UAS

Runtime Assurance (RTA) is a design-time architecture for safety-critical systems where an internal monitor acts upon detecting a violation of a property. The simplex architecture is an instance of RTA, where the action taken is to hand control of the overall system to a trusted controller when an untrusted one violates a safety property. Simplex RTA is emerging as a method for allowing AI/ML and other unverified software to be integrated into safety-critical applications like aircraft. To this end, the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) and NASA have each published guidelines on the use of RTA in such systems. In the simplex RTA framework, a system has an advanced controller (AC) and a reversionary controller (RC). The system is allowed to operate with the AC until a runtime monitor detects that some property has been violated and then the RC takes over. Assuming that the sample rate of the monitor will detect improper functioning with enough time for the RC to correct the impending problem, and that the RC is trusted, the system will operate as intended. This use of the simplex RTA framework can allow for the integration of untrusted, but possibly more performant, controllers in a safe way. This paper presents a formalization of a simplex RTA framework in the Prototype Verification System (PVS) theorem prover using an embedding of differential dynamic logic (DDL) called Plaidypvs. A novel feature of this framework is that it can be instantiated at different levels of abstraction. This feature allows for the formal verification of a system with an untrusted black box component, such as an AI/ML controller. This paper does not address the many difficulties in deploying RTA in an industrial-level system. Instead, the focus is on the formal verification of the simplex RTA framework in the language of hybrid programs. Hybrid programs are programs that include both discrete and continuous dynamics and can be used to model complex cyber-physical systems. Plaidypvs is a tool that enables formalization of hybrid programs in the PVS theorem prover. Plaidypvs enables the verification of the general simplex RTA framework and then, by specializing some components of the hybrid program, verifying instances of the framework while treating the untrusted component as a black box. A selection of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) operations are shown as instances of the general RTA framework in PVS. This offers the benefit of design time verification of relevant safety properties to the system, and it also gives requirements on the sample rate of sensors that determine the time interval in which the ‘switch’ property of the RTA framework is checked.

PVS

Performing Numerical Analysis of Cybersecurity Options Using Dynamic Risk Analysis Tool EMRALD

Cyberattacks can have many different attack paths, durations, and goals. There are also many different mitigation options involving hardware, software, and/or humans. Considering a cyber threat should involve defense-in-depth methods and a quantitative or numerical evaluation of overall effectiveness against dynamic, time-dependent attacks to make cost and risk-informed decisions. Typical cyberattack modeling methods only provide a qualitative evaluation. The main areas of cybersecurity are confidentiality, integrity, and availability. For companies with cyber-physical systems such as advanced nuclear reactors, cyber-related safety is a requirement set by North American Electric Reliability and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. They are also concerned about availability or reliability as a business case. As cyber threats are evolving to a business-for-hire structure, more attacks may focus on disrupting business success and reliability, causing financial and economic stability risk. Companies want to know business reliability and recovery from those threats, and that requires modeling physical behavior of the targets. Dynamic-state-based and Markov-based modeling provides a method for better cyber scenario modeling with different tools having issues such as state-base explosion. Dynamic modeling enables time and conditional features not found in other numerical evaluation methods. EMRALD (Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Lined Diagrams) is a dynamic risk analysis modeling and simulation tool and has features that reduce modeling issues. It has been used to model different time-dependent events including plant behavior and operator procedures. As a general modeling tool, EMRALD can also be used to model cyberattack scenarios with varying mitigation options and quantify effectiveness, producing numerical data for risk-informed decisions. This paper uses EMRALD to demonstrate that dynamic numerical risk analysis can be used for cyber threat modeling to provide insights for design decision-making and optimize defense strategies. Keywords: cyber modeling; cyber-physical systems; numerical cyber modeling

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Requirements Framework for Cyber-Informed Engineering

The existing requirements frameworks or models cater to the existing practices. However, they fall short in directly using them for Cyber informed engineering. Therefore, this paper develops and presents a comprehensive framework that can be used for Cyber informed Engineering during the requirements phase. We describe the existing requirements process and models, then develop a requirements framework for cyber informed engineering.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING