Toward a theory of group-decision behavior.
Theory of group decision behavior tested on dyads
INFORMATION PROCESSING↗
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Results for “DECISION THEORY”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Quantum Decision Maker Theory and Simulation
A quantum device simulating the human decision making process is introduced. It consists of quantum recurrent nets generating stochastic processes which represent the motor dynamics, and of classical neural nets describing the evolution of probabilities of these processes which represent the mental dynamics.
Quantum↗
Signal detection theory and psychophysics.
Book on statistical decision theory and sensory processes in signal detection theory and psychophysics
PSYCHOPHYSICS↗
Intelligent data management for real-time spacecraft monitoring
Real-time AI systems have begun to address the challenge of restructuring problem solving to meet real-time constraints by making key trade-offs that pursue less than optimal strategies with minimal impact on system goals. Several approaches for adapting to dynamic changes in system operating conditions are known. However, simultaneously adapting system decision criteria in a principled way has been difficult. Towards this end, a general technique for dynamically making such trade-offs using a combination of decision theory and domain knowledge has been developed. Multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT), a decision theoretic approach for making one-time decisions is discussed and dynamic trade-off evaluation is described as a knowledge-based extension of MAUT that is suitable for highly dynamic real-time environments, and provides an example of dynamic trade-off evaluation applied to a specific data management trade-off in a real-world spacecraft monitoring application.
Schwuttke, Ursula M.↗
On the theory and methods of statistical inference
Bayesian estimation, decision theory, least squares method, maximum likelihood, and other mathematical techniques of statistical inference theory
MATHEMATICAL MODEL↗
Engineering management of large scale systems
The organization of high technology and engineering problem solving, has given rise to an emerging concept. Reasoning principles for integrating traditional engineering problem solving with system theory, management sciences, behavioral decision theory, and planning and design approaches can be incorporated into a methodological approach to solving problems with a long range perspective. Long range planning has a great potential to improve productivity by using a systematic and organized approach. Thus, efficiency and cost effectiveness are the driving forces in promoting the organization of engineering problems. Aspects of systems engineering that provide an understanding of management of large scale systems are broadly covered here. Due to the focus and application of research, other significant factors (e.g., human behavior, decision making, etc.) are not emphasized but are considered.
Sanders, Serita↗
Automatic processing of multi-spectral images
Statistical decision theory for automatic classification of multiple spectral image points
STATISTICAL DECISION THEORY↗
Statistical decision problems in large scale biological experiments Final report
Statistical decision theory applied to problems associated with Martian biological exploration program
BIOLOGY↗
Relationship of planetary quarantine to biological search strategy
Decision theory biological search strategies and planetary quarantine aspects of Mars exploratory missions
MARS ENVIRONMENT↗
Operational reliability assessment of the GEOS A spacecraft
Decision theory application to GEOS A spacecraft operational reliability assessment
DECISION THEORY↗
The transition from resistance to acceptance: Managing a marine invasive species in a changing world
Abstract Marine invasive species can transform coastal ecosystems, yet mitigating their effects can be difficult, and even impractical. Often, marine invasive species are managed at poorly matched spatial scales, and at the same time, rates of spread and establishment are increasing under climate change and can outpace resources available for population suppression. These circumstances challenge traditional conservation goals of maintaining a historic environmental state, especially for a species like the European green crab ( Carcinus maenas ), a formidable invader with few examples of successful long‐term removal programs. A management paradigm where decision alternatives include resisting or accepting a new ecological trajectory may be needed. We apply mathematical concepts from decision theory to develop a quantitative framework for navigating management decisions in this new resist‐accept paradigm. We develop a model of European green crab growth, removal and colonization, and we find optimal levels of removal effort that minimize both ecological change and removal cost. We establish a benchmark of colonization pressure at which green crab density becomes decoupled from a decision maker's actions, such that population control can no longer shape the invasion trajectory. For informing the decision boundary between resistance and acceptance, our results highlight that a decision maker's understanding of how removal cost scales with removal effort is more important than understanding the density‐impact relationship. We show that assuming stationary system dynamics can result in sub‐optimal levels of species removal effort, highlighting the importance of developing anticipatory management strategies by accounting for non‐stationary dynamics. Policy implications . For marine invasive species that can disperse across long distances and recolonize rapidly after removal, the focus of conservation policy should shift away from understanding how to resist change to understanding when to stop resisting change. Navigating this decision problem involves trade‐offs among competing objectives, highlighting the need for structured approaches to elicit objective weights that reflect the values of the decision maker. For natural resource managers facing possible ecosystem transformation, this decision framework can enable proactive and strategic decisions made under uncertainty in a changing world.
Keller, Abigail G. [Department of Environment Scie↗
Development of Fuzzy Logic and Soft Computing Methodologies
Our earlier research on computing with words (CW) has led to a new direction in fuzzy logic which points to a major enlargement of the role of natural languages in information processing, decision analysis and control. This direction is based on the methodology of computing with words and embodies a new theory which is referred to as the computational theory of perceptions (CTP). An important feature of this theory is that it can be added to any existing theory - especially to probability theory, decision analysis, and control - and enhance the ability of the theory to deal with real-world problems in which the decision-relevant information is a mixture of measurements and perceptions. The new direction is centered on an old concept - the concept of a perception - a concept which plays a central role in human cognition. The ability to reason with perceptions perceptions of time, distance, force, direction, shape, intent, likelihood, truth and other attributes of physical and mental objects - underlies the remarkable human capability to perform a wide variety of physical and mental tasks without any measurements and any computations. Everyday examples of such tasks are parking a car, driving in city traffic, cooking a meal, playing golf and summarizing a story. Perceptions are intrinsically imprecise. Imprecision of perceptions reflects the finite ability of sensory organs and ultimately, the brain, to resolve detail and store information. More concretely, perceptions are both fuzzy and granular, or, for short, f-granular. Perceptions are f-granular in the sense that: (a) the boundaries of perceived classes are not sharply defined; and (b) the elements of classes are grouped into granules, with a granule being a clump of elements drawn together by indistinguishability, similarity. proximity or functionality. F-granularity of perceptions may be viewed as a human way of achieving data compression. In large measure, scientific progress has been, and continues to be, driven by a quest to progress from perceptions to measurements. Pursuit of this aim has led to brilliant successes. But alongside the successes stand problems whose solutions are not in sight. Representative of such problems is the problem of automation of driving in city traffic. In this case, as in many others, what can be done with ease by humans - without any measurements and a computations - is an intractable task for machines.
Zadeh, L. A.↗
A generalized concept for cost-effective structural design
A generalized concept for cost-effective structural design is introduced. It is assumed that decisions affecting the cost effectiveness of aerospace structures fall into three basic categories: design, verification, and operation. Within these basic categories, certain decisions concerning items such as design configuration, safety factors, testing methods, and operational constraints are to be made. All or some of the variables affecting these decisions may be treated probabilistically. Bayesian statistical decision theory is used as the tool for determining the cost optimum decisions. A special case of the general problem is derived herein, and some very useful parametric curves are developed and applied to several sample structures.
Thomas, J. M.↗
Optimal dynamic control of resources in a distributed system
The authors quantitatively formulate the problem of controlling resources in a distributed system so as to optimize a reward function and derive optimal control strategies using Markov decision theory. The control variables treated are quite general; they could be control decisions related to system configuration, repair, diagnostics, files, or data. Two algorithms for resource control in distributed systems are derived for time-invariant and periodic environments, respectively. A detailed example to demonstrate the power and usefulness of the approach is provided.
Shin, Kang G.↗
Criteria for assessing problem solving and decision making in complex environments
Training crews to cope with unanticipated problems in high-risk, high-stress environments requires models of effective problem solving and decision making. Existing decision theories use the criteria of logical consistency and mathematical optimality to evaluate decision quality. While these approaches are useful under some circumstances, the assumptions underlying these models frequently are not met in dynamic time-pressured operational environments. Also, applying formal decision models is both labor and time intensive, a luxury often lacking in operational environments. Alternate approaches and criteria are needed. Given that operational problem solving and decision making are embedded in ongoing tasks, evaluation criteria must address the relation between those activities and satisfaction of broader task goals. Effectiveness and efficiency become relevant for judging reasoning performance in operational environments. New questions must be addressed: What is the relation between the quality of decisions and overall performance by crews engaged in critical high risk tasks? Are different strategies most effective for different types of decisions? How can various decision types be characterized? A preliminary model of decision types found in air transport environments will be described along with a preliminary performance model based on an analysis of 30 flight crews. The performance analysis examined behaviors that distinguish more and less effective crews (based on performance errors). Implications for training and system design will be discussed.
Orasanu, Judith↗
Stochastic model for fatigue crack size and cost effective design decisions
This paper describes a methodology for making cost effective fatigue design decisions. The methodology is based on a probabilistic model for the stochastic process of fatigue crack growth with time. The development of a particular model for the stochastic process is also discussed in the paper. The model is based on the assumption of continuous time and discrete space of crack lengths. Statistical decision theory and the developed probabilistic model are used to develop the procedure for making fatigue design decisions on the basis of minimum expected cost or risk function and reliability bounds. Selections of initial flaw size distribution, NDT, repair threshold crack lengths, and inspection intervals are discussed.
Hanagud, S.↗
Strategic Technology Investment Analysis: An Integrated System Approach
Complex technology investment decisions within NASA are increasingly difficult to make such that the end results are satisfying the technical objectives and all the organizational constraints. Due to a restricted science budget environment and numerous required technology developments, the investment decisions need to take into account not only the functional impact on the program goals, but also development uncertainties and cost variations along with maintaining a healthy workforce. This paper describes an approach for optimizing and qualifying technology investment portfolios from the perspective of an integrated system model. The methodology encompasses multi-attribute decision theory elements and sensitivity analysis. The evaluation of the degree of robustness of the recommended portfolio provides the decision-maker with an array of viable selection alternatives, which take into account input uncertainties and possibly satisfy nontechnical constraints. The methodology is presented in the context of assessing capability development portfolios for NASA technology programs.
decision support↗
Scaling Up Decision Theoretic Planning to Planetary Rover Problems
Because of communication limits, planetary rovers must operate autonomously during consequent durations. The ability to plan under uncertainty is one of the main components of autonomy. Previous approaches to planning under uncertainty in NASA applications are not able to address the challenges of future missions, because of several apparent limits. On another side, decision theory provides a solid principle framework for reasoning about uncertainty and rewards. Unfortunately, there are several obstacles to a direct application of decision-theoretic techniques to the rover domain. This paper focuses on the issues of structure and concurrency, and continuous state variables. We describes two techniques currently under development that address specifically these issues and allow scaling-up decision theoretic solution techniques to planetary rover planning problems involving a small number of goals.
Meuleau, Nicolas↗