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At least 37 records · Page 2

Some effects of topography, soil moisture, and sea-surface temperature on continental precipitation as computed with the GISS coarse mesh climate model

The effects of terrain elevation, soil moisture, and zonal variations in sea/surface temperature on the mean daily precipitation rates over Australia, Africa, and South America in January were evaluated. It is suggested that evaporation of soil moisture may either increase or decrease the model generated precipitation, depending on the surface albedo. It was found that a flat, dry continent model best simulates the January rainfall over Australia and South America, while over Africa the simulation is improved by the inclusion of surface physics, specifically soil moisture and albedo variations.

Spar, J.↗

Low-frequency variations in the atmospheric branch of the global hydrological cycle

The annual variation of the hydrological cycle is illustrated in terms of hemispheric-mean hydrological variables for the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, while the intraseasonal variations of the global hydrological cycle are illustrated with mean values over two hemispheres that form an east-west partition of the globe. This partition is defined by the 60 deg E-120 deg W great circle and was chosen so that the mean precipitation difference and the divergent water vapor transport between the two hemispheres was maximized. Two years (1979-80) of daily precipitation estimates from the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres an 14 years (1979-92) of upper-air data generated by the Global Data Assimilation System at the National Meteorological Center are used in making quantitative estimates of the annual and intraseasonal variations in the global hydrological cycle. The annual variations in hemispheric-mean precipitation (P-circumflex) and water vapor flux divergence (del(vector differential operator) dot Q-circumflex) for the Northern and Southern Hemispheres are comparable with amplitudes of about 0.5 approximately 0.7 mm/day. Both (P-circumflex) and (del(vector differential operator) dot Q-circumflex) vary annually in a coherent way in each hemisphere so that water vapor diverges from the winter hemisphere, where (P-circumflex) reaches its minimum, to the summer hemisphere, where (P-circumflex) attains its maximum. In fact, the hemispheric-mean divergence of water vapor flux changes sign during the annual cycle. Intraseasonal variations of hemispheric-mean precipitation mean P-tilde, evaporation mean E-tilde, and water vapor flux divergence mean del (vector differential operator) dot Q-tilde in the two hemisphres in the east-west direction are comparable with amplitudes of about 0.1 approximately 0.2 mm/day, although amplitudes in some cases exceed 0.3 mm/day. Hemispheric-mean precipitation mean P-tilde varies coherently in opposite phase for the two hemispheres, while mean del (vector differential operator) dot Q-tilde varies so that water vapor diverges from the hemisphere of maximum mean P-tilde to the hemisphere to the hemisphere of minimum mean P-tilde. Intraseasonal variations of mean P-tilde, mean E-tilde, and mean del (vector differential oprator) dot Q-tilde are in accord with the eastward propagation of the intraseasonal global divergent circulation.

Chen, Tsing-Chang↗

The Peak Structure and Future Changes of the Relationships Between Extreme Precipitation and Temperature

Theoretical models predict that, in the absence of moisture limitation, extreme precipitation intensity could exponentially increase with temperatures at a rate determined by the Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) relationship. Climate models project a continuous increase of precipitation extremes for the twenty-first century over most of the globe. However, some station observations suggest a negative scaling of extreme precipitation with very high temperatures, raising doubts about future increase of precipitation extremes. Here we show for the present-day climate over most of the globe,the curve relating daily precipitation extremes with local temperatures has a peak structure, increasing as expected at the low medium range of temperature variations but decreasing at high temperatures. However, this peak-shaped relationship does not imply a potential upper limit for future precipitation extremes. Climate models project both the peak of extreme precipitation and the temperature at which it peaks (T(sub peak)) will increase with warming; the two increases generally conform to the C-C scaling rate in mid- and high-latitudes,and to a super C-C scaling in most of the tropics. Because projected increases of local mean temperature (T(sub mean)) far exceed projected increases of T(sub peak) over land, the conventional approach of relating extreme precipitation to T(sub mean) produces a misleading sub-C-C scaling rate.

Clausius–Clapeyron↗

Precipitation Structure in the Sierra Nevada of California During Winter

The influences of upper air characteristics along the coast of California upon the winter time precipitation in the Sierra Nevada region were investigated. Most precipitation episodes in the Sierra are associated with moist southwesterly winds and also tend to occur when the 700-mb temperature is close to -2 C. This favored wind direction and temperature signifies the equal importance of moisture transport and orographic lifting for maximum precipitation frequency. Making use of this observation, simple linear models were formulated to quantify the precipitation totals observed at different sites as a function of moisture transport. The skill of the model is least for daily precipitation and increases with time scale of aggregation. In terms of incremental gain, the skill of the model is optimal for an aggregation period of 5-7 days, which is also the duration of the most frequent precipitation events in the Sierra. This indicates that upper air moisture transport at can be used to make reasonable estimates of the precipitation totals for most frequent events in the Sierra region.

Pandey, Ganesh R.↗

Spatial and Temporal Analysis of a Global Landslide Catalog

Landslide inventories are critical to support investigations ofwhere andwhen landslides have happened andmay occur in the future; however, there is surprisingly little information on the historical occurrence of landslides at the global scale. This paper presents a new publicly available global landslide catalog (GLC), which is based on media reports, online databases, and other sources. This database is currently available at http://ojo-streamer. herokuapp.com/. The 5741 points in the GLC provide a foundation for evaluating spatial and temporal trends in landslide activity from 2007 to 2013. Globally, landslideswere reportedmost frequently from July to September. Most events occurred in Asia, North America and Southeast Asia. In contrast, fewer than 5% of the fatalities were reported in North America, suggesting a significant amount of under-reporting in other regions as well as potential discrepancies between developing and developed regions. Reported landslide events were also compared to satellite-based precipitation estimates fromthe Tropical RainfallMeasuring Mission (TRMM) to evaluate the co-occurrence of extreme precipitation and landslide activity. Of the 3550 points considered in a subset of the GLC, approximately 60% of the reported landslides have daily precipitation exceeding the 95th percentile of precipitation calculated over a 14-year TRMMrecord for the same location. This study also investigated how the recurrence interval of extreme precipitation corresponded to some of the most catastrophic landslide events. In spite of several reporting and cataloging biases, spatial and temporal analysis of the GLC suggests that it is a valuable database for characterizing global patterns of landslide occurrence and evaluating relationships with extreme precipitation at regional and global scales.

Analysis↗

A comparison of measured and estimated meteorological data for use in crop growth modeling

Gridded spatial estimates of maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation, prepared for agricultural use from World Meteorological Organization surface reports and enhanced by polar orbiting satellites were compared with daily meteorological data measured at various agricultural research facilities across the United States to determine their level of accuracy. Preliminary results indicate that daily maximum temperature can be determined to within 9.1 degrees Celsius with ninety percent confidence. With similar levels of confidence, daily minimum temperature can be determined to within 6.7 degrees Celsius, daily solar radiation to within 231.2 cal/sq cm min, and daily precipitation to within 9.7 millimeters.

Perry, C. R., Jr.↗

The Evolution of Tropical Precipitation Patterns During ENSO Events Using 21+ Years of GPCP Merged Data

The ENSO phenomenon is characterized by fluctuations in the climate system of the tropical Pacific. Quantifying changes in the precipitation component of this system is important in understanding the distribution of heating in the atmosphere which drives the large-scale circulation and affects the weather patterns in the mid-latitudes. Monitoring precipitation anomalies in the Pacific is also an important component for tracking the evolution of ENSO. The most timely and complete observations of the earth come from satellite instruments. In this study, the state of the art satellite-gauge merged monthly precipitation data set from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is used to depict tropical rainfall patterns during ENSO events over the past two decades and quantify these patterns using indices. This analysis will be complemented by daily precipitation data which can resolve the Madden-Julian Oscillation and westerly wind burst events. The 1997-98 El Nino and 1998-2000 La Nina were the best observed ENSO cycle in the historic record. Prior to the El Nino (in terms of anomalous warming of the east Pacific) dry anomalies over the Maritime Continent were observed in February 1997 as a westerly wind burst advected convection to the east. The largest SST anomalies occurred around November-December 1997, which were followed by the largest precipitation anomalies in the beginning of 1998. The largest precipitation departures from normal were not colocated with the SST anomalies, but were further west, In the spring of 1998 negative precipitation anomalies to the north of the equator intensified, signaling the mature phase of the El Nino. A rapid increase in the precipitation-based La Nina index from December-January 1998 to March-April 1998 signaled the coming La Nina. The 1982-1983 El Nino was comparable in strength (according to several indices) and the precipitation patterns evolved in a similar fashion. For the 1998-2000 La Nina, the coldest anomalies, were confined to the central equatorial Pacific, while the driest anomalies were found in the west Pacific,

Curtis, Scott↗

IMERG Multi-Satellite Products Across Two Decades

The Version 06 Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission products were completed over the last year, capping five years of development since the launch of the GPM Core Observatory, and covering the joint Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and GPM eras with consistently processed algorithms. The U.S. GPM team’s Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) merged precipitation product enforces a consistent intercalibration for all precipitation products computed from individual satellites with the TRMM and GPM Core Observatory sensors as the TRMM- and GPM-era calibrators, respectively, and incorporates monthly surface gauge data in the Final (research) product. Mid-latitude calibrations during the TRMM era necessarily are more approximate because TRMM only covered the latitude band 35°N-S, while GPM covers 65°N-S. Starting in V06, IMERG employs precipitation motion vectors (used to drive the quasi-Lagrangian interpolation, or “morphing”) that are computed by tracking the vertically integrated vapor as analyzed in MERRA2 and GEOS FP. This approach covers the entire globe, expanding coverage beyond the 60°N-S latitude band provided by IR-based vectors in previous versions, although we choose to mask out microwave-based precipitation over snowy/icy surfaces as unreliable. We will provide examples of performance for the V06 IMERG products, including comparison with the long-term record of GPCP and TMPA, showing higher values by about 8% in the latitude band 50°N-S over oceans; diurnal cycle, demonstrating improvement over previous versions; and daily precipitation PDFs for the entire record, showing a shift at the TRMM/GPM boundary, as well as interannual variations. These analyses have important implications for the utility of V06 IMERG data for long-record calculations. Finally, we will review the retirement of the predecessor TMPA multi-satellite dataset.

George J. Huffman↗

BOREAS TF-2 SSA-OA Tower Flux, Meteorological, and Precipitation Data

The BOReal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study Tower Flux-2 (BOREAS TF-2) team collected energy, carbon dioxide, water vapor, and momentum flux data above the canopy and in profiles through the canopy, along with meteorological data at the BOREAS Southern Study Area-Old Aspen (SSA-OA) site. Above-canopy measurements began in early February and ran through mid-September of 1994. Measurements were collected over a longer period of 1994 than most BOREAS flux sites. Daily precipitation data from several gauges were also collected. The data are available in tabular ASCII files.

Neumann, Harold↗

Vermont Wildland Fires: Investigating the Role of Antecedent Conditions and Recent Environmental Trends in Exacerbating Fire Risk and Potential in Vermont

Under a changing climate, increases in dry conditions and extreme heat events are projected to exacerbate wildfire risk in the northeastern U.S. In recent years, Vermont has observed higher annual temperatures, more frequent heatwaves, increased annual precipitation, extreme flood events, and decreased snowfall. The mechanisms through which environmental factors contribute to increased fire risk in humid environments, such as Vermont, are poorly understood. The team partnered with the National Weather Service, the Vermont Division of Forests, and the University of Vermont to investigate phenological trends and antecedent conditions influencing wildland fire risk. For the phenological analysis, from 2001 to 2023, vegetation data, phenological dates, and snow water equivalent (SWE) values were accessed from Landsat 5Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 7Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), Landsat 8Operational Land Imager (OLI), Landsat 9OLI-2, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and the Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS), respectively. For the antecedent condition analysis, from 2008 to 2023, soil moisture, Environmental Stress Index, wind speed, minimum relative humidity, and daily precipitation data were obtained from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), SERVIR, gridMET Wind, gridMET Humidity, and NClimGrid, respectively. The study found that green-up dates over the study period remain relatively stable, while snowmelt dates appear increasingly variable. Minimum relative humidity was the most significant environmental variable correlated with wildfire risk in Vermont. Results from this study will inform the National Weather Service's preparation of fire forecasts before prescribed burns and support community outreach by the Vermont Agency of Natural Resources.

Wildland Fire↗

Tropical Pacific moisture variability

The research objectives were to describe synoptic scale variability of moisture over the tropical Pacific Ocean and the systems leading to this variability, to implement satellite analysis procedures to accomplish that objective, to incorporate additional satellite information into operational analysis/forecast systems at the National Meteorological Center (NMC), and to synthesize knowledge gained from satellite observations through diagnosis and numerical models. In the past year, three significant satellite data analysis tasks were accomplished: comparisons for upwelling radiance fields for 1983 and 1984 were completed for the purpose of testing the sensitivity of water vapor/greenhouse feedback to local sea surface temperature variations; the interaction between tropical plumes, wave features over Central America, traveling waves in the upper tropospheric tropics, and the tropical interseasonal oscillation was examined; and planning and early efforts on the construction of a model and the infrared based climatology of daily precipitable water was completed. Research on tropical plume mechanisms included is briefly discussed.

Mcguirk, James P.↗

(abstract) Monitoring the Freeze/Thaw Transitions in Taiga Forests Using ERS-1 SAR

Automated recording stations have been installed at the Bonanza Creek Experimental Forest, a Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) site located near Fairbanks, Alaska, in a forest stand of the Tanana River floodplain underlain by discontinuous permafrost. These stations provide a continuous record of dielectric constant and temperature of tree trunks, and soil moisture and temperature profiles down to the root zone. Along with the weather stations deployed at the same location, these measurements provide a continuous record of the environmental and phenologic conditions of the forest during a complete seasonal cycle. At the same time, ERS-1 SAR imaged the study site repeatedly from space to provide radar backscatter measurements of the forest approximately three times a month. Here, we examine the temporal dynamic of ERS-1 SAR measurements in relation with the changing environmental and phenologic state of the forest canopy and of the forest ground layers during the winter/spring and fall/winter transitions of 1992 and 1993. During these transitions, we examine whether changes in radar backscatter observed by ERS-1 may be related to freezing or thawing of the soil and vegetation in order to determine the start and end of the growing season for the forest. The results of this analysis are used in turn to determine whether similar changes are observed over larger regions. Mosaics of SAR data generated along three different North-South Alaskan ERS-1 transects that intercept with our study site are used in combination with hourly air temperature and daily precipitation rates gathered at airport weather stations by the National Weather Service. Results obtained using ERS-1 data collected from January 1992 to mid-1993 will be discussed.

permafrost temporal dynamics Alaska ecology radar ↗

Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction of Climate Model Outputs for Climate Change Impact Assessment in the U.S. Northeast

Statistical downscaling can be used to efficiently downscale a large number of General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs to a fine temporal and spatial scale. To facilitate regional impact assessments, this study statistically downscales (to 1∕8deg spatial resolution) and corrects the bias of daily maximum and minimum temperature and daily precipitation data from six GCMs and four Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for the northeast United States (US) using the Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction (SDBC) approach. Based on these downscaled data from multiple models, five extreme indices were analyzed for the future climate to quantify future changes of climate extremes. For a subset of models and indices, results based on raw and bias corrected model outputs for the present-day climate were compared with observations, which demonstrated that bias correction is important not only for GCM outputs, but also for RCM outputs. For future climate, bias correction led to a higher level of agreements among the models in predicting the magnitude and capturing the spatial pattern of the extreme climate indices. We found that the incorporation of dynamical downscaling as an intermediate step does not lead to considerable differences in the results of statistical downscaling for the study domain.

extreme climate index↗

Introducing GFWED: The Global Fire Weather Database

The Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System is the mostly widely used fire danger rating system in the world. We have developed a global database of daily FWI System calculations, beginning in 1980, called the Global Fire WEather Database (GFWED) gridded to a spatial resolution of 0.5 latitude by 2-3 longitude. Input weather data were obtained from the NASA Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), and two different estimates of daily precipitation from rain gauges over land. FWI System Drought Code calculations from the gridded data sets were compared to calculations from individual weather station data for a representative set of 48 stations in North, Central and South America, Europe, Russia,Southeast Asia and Australia. Agreement between gridded calculations and the station-based calculations tended to be most different at low latitudes for strictly MERRA based calculations. Strong biases could be seen in either direction: MERRA DC over the Mato Grosso in Brazil reached unrealistically high values exceeding DCD1500 during the dry season but was too low over Southeast Asia during the dry season. These biases are consistent with those previously identified in MERRAs precipitation, and they reinforce the need to consider alternative sources of precipitation data. GFWED can be used for analyzing historical relationships between fire weather and fire activity at continental and global scales, in identifying large-scale atmosphereocean controls on fire weather, and calibration of FWI-based fire prediction models.

bias↗

Ground and Satellite Based Observation Datasets for the Lower Mekong River Basin

In ‘Satellite observations and modeling to understand the Lower Mekong River Basin streamflow variability’ [1] hydrological fluxes, meteorological variables, land cover land use maps, and soil characteristics and parameters data were compiled and processed for the Lower Mekong River Basin. In this work, daily streamflow time series data at nine gauges located at five different countries in the Mekong region (Thailand, Laos People׳s Democratic Republic (PDR), Myanmar, Cambodia, and Viet Nam) is presented. Satellite-based daily precipitation and air temperature (minimum & maximum) data is processed and provided over the entire basin as part of the dataset provided in this work. Moreover, land cover land use raster data that contains 18 classes that cover agriculture, urban, range and forests land cover land use classes for the basin is offered. In addition, a soil data that contains physical and chemical characteristics needed by physically based hydrological models to simulate the cycling of water and air is also provided.

Streamflow↗

Diverse Responses of Multiple Satellite-Derived Vegetation Greenup Onsets to Dry Periods in the Amazon

Satellite-derived vegetation greenness and seasonal dynamics in the Amazon have generated considerable academic debate over the past two decades. Despite this, the phenological timing of Amazon forests and, in particular their responses to dry periods, remain poorly understood. Here we explicitly identify the diverse timing of vegetation canopy greenup onsets from 10-min geostationary satellite observations, and compute the timing of both the start and end of dry periods from daily precipitation data. We, for the first time, reveal that the Amazon vegetation canopy regularly experiences two cycles of greenup onsets during a year. The occurrence of greenup onset varies diversely from the start to end of the dry periods, but demonstrates regular shifts in local areas, although irregular shifts across the region. The multiple greenup onsets show complex spatial shifts, which closely follow the spatial movement of dry periods. The results provide a new insight into our understanding of the complexity of Amazonian vegetation canopy dynamics during dry periods, which could significantly improve the simulation of carbon and water cycles.

Satellite-Derived Vegetation↗

PPDIST, global 0.1° daily and 3-hourly precipitation probability distribution climatologies for 1979–2018

We introduce the Precipitation Probability DISTribution (PPDIST) dataset, a collection of global high-resolution (0.1°) observation-based climatologies (1979–2018) of the occurrence and peak intensity of precipitation (P) at daily and 3-hourly time-scales. The climatologies were produced using neural networks trained with daily P observations from 93,138 gauges and hourly P observations (resampled to 3-hourly) from 11,881 gauges worldwide. Mean validation coefficient of determination (R^(2)) values ranged from 0.76 to 0.80 for the daily P occurrence indices, and from 0.44 to 0.84 for the daily peak P intensity indices. The neural networks performed significantly better than current state-of-the-art reanalysis (ERA5) and satellite (IMERG) products for all P indices. Using a 0.1 mm 3 per h threshold, P was estimated to occur 12.2%, 7.4%, and 14.3% of the time, on average, over the global, land, and ocean domains, respectively. The highest P intensities were found over parts of Central America, India, and Southeast Asia, along the western equatorial coast of Africa, and in the intertropical convergence zone.

Hylke E. Beck↗

Temperature-dependent daily variability of precipitable water in special sensor microwave/imager observations

We use retrievals of atmospheric precipitable water from satellite microwave observations and analyses of near-surface temperature to examine the relationship between these two fields on daily and longer time scales. The retrieval technique producing the data used here is most effective over the open ocean, so the analysis focuses on the southern hemisphere's extratropics, which have an extensive ocean surface. For both the total and the eddy precipitable water fields, there is a close correspondence between local variations in the precipitable water and near-surface temperature. The correspondence appears particularly strong for synoptic and planetary scale transient eddies. More specifically, the results support a typical modeling assumption that transient eddy moisture fields are proportional to transient eddy temperature fields under the assumption f constant relative humidity.

Gutowski, William J.↗