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DOE OSTI2025

Physics-Informed Gaussian Process Inference of Liquid Structure from Scattering Data

We present a nonparametric Bayesian framework to infer radial distribution functions from experimental scattering measurements with uncertainty quantification using nonstationary Gaussian processes. The Gaussian process prior mean and kernel functions are designed to mitigate well-known numerical challenges with the Fourier transform, including discrete measurement binning and detector windowing, while encoding fundamental yet minimal physical knowledge of the liquid structure. We demonstrate uncertainty propagation of the Gaussian process posterior to unmeasured quantities of interest. Experimental radial distribution functions of liquid argon and water with uncertainty quantification are provided as both a proof of principle for the method and a benchmark for molecular models.

Chemical structure↗

DOE OSTI2025

Better practices for inferring ecosystem water use strategy from eddy covariance data

Eddy covariance data are critical for inferring ecosystem water use strategies. Yet, such inferences are sensitive to a range of assumptions applied across studies, hindering our understanding of water use strategies within and across eddy covariance sites. A recent analysis across 151 FLUXNET2015 and AmeriFlux-FLUXNET datasets found that poor model performance was the key driver of non-robust inferences of ecosystem water use strategies. Here, we leverage this previous analysis to (i) identify the specific assumptions that improve inference model performance across most sites, (ii) explain the mechanisms behind the performance improvements, and (iii) check whether better performance improves water use inference. We find that the common practice of fitting a model to canopy conductance (G c ) derived from the evapotranspiration (ET) observations, rather than to observed ET itself, artificially amplifies data errors and degrades the model performance. Next, accounting for vegetation dynamics by applying a growing season filter or incorporating satellite LAI data improves performance, but the former practice may remove soil water stress periods. Lastly, using the leaf-to-air vapor pressure deficit (VPD l ) derived from ET observations as a model input may artificially inflate performance. Based on these results, we recommend selecting observed ET (rather than derived G c ) as the response variable, carefully accounting for vegetation dynamics, and avoiding derived VPD l as a model input; these best practices improve model performance by c. 20% and robustness by c. 80% across all eddy covariance sites. Nevertheless, the performance improvements do not always correspond to more robust inference of water use strategies, as model parameter selection and surface energy budget closure corrections still strongly influence the ecosystem water use parameter estimation in a site-specific manner.

AmeriFlux↗

DOE OSTI2026

Ripening of Rh Nanoparticle Catalysts in Reverse Water–Gas Shift via a Data-Driven Model Combining Physics, Theory, and Experiment

Degradation via sintering is an ongoing challenge that impedes the broad commercial success of supported metallic nanoparticle catalysts. To mitigate degradation via informed catalyst design and process operations, here we aim to disambiguate the underlying mechanisms of sintering by combining theory and experiment in a quantitative framework. While mechanistic sintering models exist, they only model a single sintering pathway, even though multiple sintering mechanisms can occur simultaneously or dominate at different stages of the process. Data-driven machine learning models have emerged as a means to represent complex processes through data regression. However, machine learning models have very large data needs and lack mechanistic insights due to their black-box encoding. To develop an interpretive model of catalyst degradation via sintering, we constructed a hybrid model combining mechanistic “physics-based” models and data-driven methods to obtain both reliable predictions and mechanistic insights regarding experimentally observed sintering phenomena. Focusing on nanoparticle sintering in the Rh–TiO 2 catalyst for the reverse water–gas shift (RWGS) reaction, the hybrid model couples a mechanistic term for Ostwald ripening with energy values calculated via density functional theory (DFT) with a parametric, data-driven discrepancy function term for unmodeled mechanisms. The hybrid model is trained using Bayesian inference with data collected from small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) in situ experiments wherein average nanoparticle diameter versus time was measured at three relevant operating temperatures. The calibrated hybrid model results show that an Ostwald ripening-only model parameterized with fixed DFT energies does not fully capture the time and temperature dependence of the SAXS-observed sintering kinetics, and that an additional functional contribution, or DFT energy calibration, is required to reconcile simulation and experiment. Analysis of the hybrid-model error confirms that the hybrid model outperforms both the purely mechanistic and purely data-driven alternatives in terms of expected predictive accuracy for time-evolving average particle sizes. Furthermore, the results support the hypothesis that the Ostwald ripening mechanism is less important for explaining the sintering phenomena as operating temperature increases under an assumed fixed DFT parameterization. This could be explained in one of two ways: either latent, unmodeled sintering mechanisms dominate at higher temperatures, or the DFT uncertainty increases with temperature. The proposed modeling approach directly links theory to experiments and simulations via a statistical hybrid modeling framework and can be extended to other catalytic systems to improve predictive models and mechanistic understanding.

Bayesian hybrid modeling↗

DOE OSTI2026

AIF for Vis (Active Inference for simulating human interpretation of data visualization) [SWR-26-084]

AIF for Vis contains the Active Inference models and analysis scripts used to study a simple visualization-interpretation task: estimating the average value of two bars in a bar chart. The work is a proof of concept for translating hypothesized cognitive strategies into executable, inspectable process models. We implement two idealized strategies inspired by dual-process accounts of visualization-aided decision making: *Fast model: a compressed, heuristic strategy that estimates the visual midpoint of the two bars and maintains a single belief over their average. *Slow model: a sequential, analytic strategy that estimates the two bar heights separately and maintains them in working memory before computing an average. Both models use a common Active-Inference-inspired framework for sequential perception, belief updating, action selection, and reporting. Their different internal representations produce distinct predicted vulnerabilities: *the Fast model is more susceptible to tick-salience bias; *the Slow model is more susceptible to working-memory decay. The repository includes the model implementations, scripts used for the experiments reported in the paper, precomputed trial-level results, and plotting scripts.

Goldwyn, Harrison [National Laboratory of the Rock↗

DOE OSTI2025

Variational autoencoders for at-source data reduction and anomaly detection in high energy particle detectors

Detectors in next-generation high-energy physics experiments face several daunting requirements, such as high data rates, damaging radiation exposure, and stringent constraints on power, space, and latency. To address these challenges, machine learning in readout electronics can be leveraged for smart detector designs, enabling intelligent inference and data reduction at-source. Variational autoencoders (VAEs) offer a variety of benefits for front-end readout; an on-sensor encoder can perform efficient lossy data compression while simultaneously providing a latent space representation that can be used for anomaly detection. Results are presented from low-latency and resource-efficient VAEs for front-end data processing in a futuristic silicon pixel detector. Encoder-based data compression is found to preserve good performance of off-detector analysis while significantly reducing the off-detector data rate as compared to a similarly sized data filtering approach. Furthermore, the latent space information is found to be a useful discriminator in the context of real-time sensor defect monitoring. Together, these results highlight the multifaceted utility of autoencoder-based front-end readout schemes and motivate their consideration in future detector designs.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of data driven low-rank matrix factorization for accelerated solutions of the Vlasov equation

Low-rank methods have shown success in accelerating simulations of a collisionless plasma described by the Vlasov equation, but still rely on computationally costly linear algebra every time step. We propose a data-driven factorization method using artificial neural networks, specifically with convolutional layer architecture, that trains on existing simulation data. At inference time, the model outputs a low-rank decomposition of the distribution field of the charged particles, and we demonstrate that this step is faster than the standard linear algebra technique. Numerical experiments show that the method achieves comparable reconstruction accuracy for interpolation tasks, generalizing to unseen test data in a manner beyond just memorizing training data; patterns in factorization also inherently followed the same numerical trend as those within algebraic methods (e.g., truncated singular-value decomposition). However, when training on the first 70% of a time-series data and testing on the remaining 30%, the method fails to meaningfully extrapolate. Despite this limiting result, the technique may have benefits for simulations in a statistical steady-state or otherwise showing temporal stability. These results suggest that while the model offers a computationally efficient alternative for datasets with temporal stability, its current formulation is best suited for interpolation rather than for predicting future states in time-evolving systems. This study thus lays the groundwork for further refinement of neural network-based approaches to low-rank matrix factorization in high-dimensional plasma simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Describing hadronization via histories and observables for Monte-Carlo event reweighting

We introduce a novel method for extracting a fragmentation model directly from experimental data without requiring an explicit parametric form, called Histories and Observables for Monte-Carlo Event Reweighting (HOMER), consisting of three steps: the training of a classifier between simulation and data, the inference of single fragmentation weights, and the calculation of the weight for the full hadronization chain. We illustrate the use of HOMER on a simplified hadronization problem, a q\bar{q} q q ‾ string fragmenting into pions, and extract a modified Lund string fragmentation function f(z) f ( z ) . We then demonstrate the use of HOMER on three types of experimental data: (i) binned distributions of high-level observables, (ii) unbinned event-by-event distributions of these observables, and (iii) full particle cloud information. After demonstrating that f(z) f ( z ) can be extracted from data (the inverse of hadronization), we also show that, at least in this limited setup, the fidelity of the extracted f(z) f ( z ) suffers only limited loss when moving from (i) to (ii) to (iii). Public code is available at https://gitlab.com/uchep/mlhad.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Preliminary Results on Bayesian Inverse UQ for OECD/NEA WPNCS Subgroup 14 Benchmark Exercise for Error Recovery and Experimental Coverage

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Working Party on Nucelar Criticality Safety (WPNCS) has proposed a benchmark exercise representative of neutronic behavior in criticality experiments. Here, the goal is to develop confidence in data assimilation techniques used to adjust nuclear data. Participants are given synthetic experimental models with associated measured data and asked to estimate the model parameters given the model and measurements as well as provide predictions for separate application models. In this work, we performed data assimilation using Bayesian inverse Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) with machine learning surrogate models to produce posterior parameter distributions for the requested parameters and posterior predictive distributions for the requested responses. Several experimental models are shown to insufficiently inform the posterior parameter distributions for the applications involved. However, given sufficient experimental data, posterior parameter estimates yielded reduced uncertainty in the response predictions of interest while covering the experimental data.

Bayesian Inference↗

DOE OSTI2024

Spike-and-Slab Shrinkage Priors for Structurally Sparse Bayesian Neural Networks

Network complexity and computational efficiency have become increasingly significant aspects of deep learning. Sparse deep learning addresses these challenges by recovering a sparse representation of the underlying target function by reducing heavily overparameterized deep neural networks. Specifically, deep neural architectures compressed via structured sparsity (e.g., node sparsity) provide low-latency inference, higher data throughput, and reduced energy consumption. In this article, we explore two well-established shrinkage techniques, Lasso and Horseshoe, for model compression in Bayesian neural networks (BNNs). To this end, we propose structurally sparse BNNs, which systematically prune excessive nodes with the following: 1) spike-and-slab group Lasso (SS-GL) and 2) SS group Horseshoe (SS-GHS) priors, and develop computationally tractable variational inference, including continuous relaxation of Bernoulli variables. We establish the contraction rates of the variational posterior of our proposed models as a function of the network topology, layerwise node cardinalities, and bounds on the network weights. Furthermore, we empirically demonstrate the competitive performance of our models compared with the baseline models in prediction accuracy, model compression, and inference latency.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Quantum critical point followed by Kondo-like behavior due to Cu substitution in the itinerant antiferromagnet La 2 ⁢(Cu 𝑥 ⁢Ni 1−𝑥 ) 7

La 2 ⁢Ni 7 is an itinerant magnetic system with a small ordered moment of ∼ 0.1⁢µ 𝐵 /Ni and a series of antiferromagnetic (AFM) transitions at 𝑇 1 = 61.0K, 𝑇 2 = 56.5K, and 𝑇 3 = 42.2K. 𝑀 ⁡(𝐻), and 𝜌 ⁡(𝐻) isotherms as well as constant field 𝑀⁡ (𝑇) and 𝜌 ⁡(𝑇) measurements on single-crystalline samples manifest a complex, anisotropic 𝐻−𝑇 phase diagram with multiple phase lines. Here, in this study, we present the growth and characterization of single crystals of the La 2 ⁢(Cu 𝑥 ⁢Ni 1−𝑥 ) 7 series for 0 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 0.181. We measured powder x-ray diffraction and composition, as well as anisotropic temperature- and field-dependent resistivity, temperature- and field-dependent magnetization, and temperature-dependent heat capacity on these single crystals. Using the measured data we infer a transition temperature-composition (𝑇−𝑥) phase diagram for this system to study the evolution of the AFM ordering upon Cu substitution. For 0 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 0.097, the system remains magnetically ordered at base temperature with 𝑥 ≤ 0.012, showing signs of multiple AFM ordering temperatures. For the higher substitution levels 0.125 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 0.181, there are no signatures of magnetic ordering, but anomalous features in resistance and heat capacity data are observed which are consistent with the Kondo effect in this system. The intermediate 𝑥 = 0.105 sample lies between the magnetic ordered and the Kondo regime and is in the vicinity of the AFM quantum critical point (QCP). Thus, La 2⁢ (Cu 𝑥 ⁢Ni 1−𝑥 ) 7 is an example of a small moment system that can be tuned through a QCP. Given these data combined with the fact that the La 2⁢ Ni 7 structure has kagomelike, Ni sublattices running perpendicular to the crystallographic 𝑐 axis, and a predicted 3⁢𝑑-electron flat band that contributes to the density of states near the Fermi energy, La 2 ⁢(Cu 𝑥 ⁢Ni 1−𝑥 ) 7 becomes a promising system to host and study exotic physics.

Das, Atreyee [Ames Laboratory, and Iowa State Univ↗

DOE OSTI2024

High-throughput genetics enables identification of nutrient utilization and accessory energy metabolism genes in a model methanogen

Archaea are widespread in the environment and play fundamental roles in diverse ecosystems; however, characterization of their unique biology requires advanced tools. This is particularly challenging when characterizing gene function. Here, we generate randomly barcoded transposon libraries in the model methanogenic archaeon Methanococcus maripaludis and use high-throughput growth methods to conduct fitness assays (RB-TnSeq) across over 100 unique growth conditions. Using our approach, we identified new genes involved in nutrient utilization and response to oxidative stress. We identified novel genes for the usage of diverse nitrogen sources in M. maripaludis including a putative regulator of alanine deamination and molybdate transporters important for nitrogen fixation. Furthermore, leveraging the fitness data, we inferred that M. maripaludis can utilize additional nitrogen sources including $\tiny{L}$-glutamine, $\tiny{D}$-glucuronamide, and adenosine. Under autotrophic growth conditions, we identified a gene encoding a domain of unknown function (DUF166) that is important for fitness and hypothesize that it has an accessory role in carbon dioxide assimilation. Finally, comparing fitness costs of oxygen versus sulfite stress, we identified a previously uncharacterized class of dissimilatory sulfite reductase-like proteins (Dsr-LP; group IIId) that is important during growth in the presence of sulfite. When overexpressed, Dsr-LP conferred sulfite resistance and enabled use of sulfite as the sole sulfur source. The high-throughput approach employed here allowed for generation of a large-scale data set that can be used as a resource to further understand gene function and metabolism in the archaeal domain.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Preserving nonlinear constraints in variational flow filtering data assimilation

Data assimilation aims to estimate the states of a dynamical system by optimally combining sparse and noisy observations of the physical system with uncertain forecasts produced by a computational model. The states of many dynamical systems of interest obey nonlinear physical constraints, and the corresponding dynamics is confined to a certain sub-manifold of the state space. Standard data assimilation techniques applied to such systems yield posterior states lying outside the manifold, violating the physical constraints. This work focuses on particle flow filters which use stochastic differential equations to evolve state samples from a prior distribution to samples from an observation-informed posterior distribution. The variational Fokker-Planck (VFP)—a generic particle flow filtering framework—is extended to incorporate non-linear, equality state constraints in the analysis. To this end, two algorithmic approaches that modify the VFP stochastic differential equation are discussed: (i) VFPSTAB, to inexactly preserve constraints with the addition of a stabilizing drift term, and (ii) VFPDAE, to exactly preserve constraints by treating the VFP dynamics as a stochastic differential-algebraic equation (SDAE). Additionally, an implicit-explicit time integrator is developed to evolve the VFPDAE dynamics. The strength of the proposed approach for constraint preservation in data assimilation is demonstrated on three test problems: the double pendulum, Korteweg-de-Vries, and the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Juno mission as a probe of long-range new physics

Orbits of celestial objects, especially the geocentric and heliocentric ones, have been well explored to constrain new long-range forces beyond the Standard Model (SM), often referred to as fifth forces. In this paper, for the first time, we apply the motion of a spacecraft around Jupiter to probe fifth forces that don’t violate the equivalence principle. The spacecraft is the Juno orbiter, and ten of its early orbits already allow a precise determination of the Jovian gravitational field. We use the shift in the precession angle as a proxy to test non-gravitational interactions between Juno and Jupiter. Requiring that the contribution from the fifth force does not exceed the uncertainty of the precession shift inferred from data, we find that a new parameter space with the mass of the fifth-force mediator around 10 −14 eV is excluded at 95% C.L.

new light particles↗

DOE OSTI2025

Joint state-parameter estimation for the reduced fracture model via the united filter

Here, in this paper, we introduce an effective United Filter method for jointly estimating the solution state and physical parameters in flow and transport problems within fractured porous media. Fluid flow and transport in fractured porous media are critical in subsurface hydrology, geophysics, and reservoir geomechanics. Reduced fracture models, which represent fractures as lower-dimensional interfaces, enable efficient multi-scale simulations. However, reduced fracture models also face accuracy challenges due to modeling errors and uncertainties in physical parameters such as permeability and fracture geometry. To address these challenges, we propose a United Filter method, which integrates the Ensemble Score Filter (EnSF) for state estimation with the Direct Filter for parameter estimation. EnSF, based on a score-based diffusion model framework, produces ensemble representations of the state distribution without deep learning. Meanwhile, the Direct Filter, a recursive Bayesian inference method, estimates parameters directly from state observations. The United Filter combines these methods iteratively: EnSF estimates are used to refine parameter values, which are then fed back to improve state estimation. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the United Filter method surpasses the state-of-the-art Augmented Ensemble Kalman Filter, delivering more accurate state and parameter estimation for reduced fracture models. This framework also provides a robust and efficient solution for PDE-constrained inverse problems with uncertainties and sparse observations.

Bayesian inference↗

DOE OSTI2025

Labels as a feature: Network homophily for systematically annotating human GPCR drug-target interactions

Machine learning has revolutionized drug discovery by enabling the exploration of vast, uncharted chemical spaces essential for discovering novel patentable drugs. Despite the critical role of human G protein-coupled receptors in FDA-approved drugs, exhaustive in-distribution drug-target interaction testing across all pairs of human G protein-coupled receptors and known drugs is rare due to significant economic and technical challenges. This often leaves off-target effects unexplored, which poses a considerable risk to drug safety. In contrast to the traditional focus on out-of-distribution exploration (drug discovery), we introduce a neighborhood-to-prediction model termed Chemical Space Neural Networks that leverages network homophily and training-free graph neural networks with labels as features. We show that Chemical Space Neural Networks’ ability to make accurate predictions strongly correlates with network homophily. Thus, labels as features strongly increase a machine learning model’s capacity to enhance in-distribution prediction accuracy, which we show by integrating labeled data during inference. We validate these advancements in a high-throughput yeast biosensing system (3773 drug-target interactions, 539 compounds, 7 human G protein-coupled receptors) to discover novel drug-target interactions for FDA-approved drugs and to expand the general understanding of how to build reliable predictors to guide experimental verification.

Hansson, Frederik G↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating nonlocal heat transport in directly driven chromium spheres using x-ray spectroscopy

We report on experiments investigating heat transport in laser-generated plasmas using directly driven chromium spheres. The spheres are fielded at the OMEGA laser facility and are driven with laser intensities of 5×10 14 Wcm −2 . Plasma conditions in the corona and scattered light are measured experimentally and compared against predictions from two-dimensional (2D) radiation-hydrodynamic simulations using different heat transport models. Spectroscopic analysis of x-ray self-emission is used as an additional diagnostic. X-ray emission is integrated over a large region of the plasma, probing regions that are not observed by localized optical Thomson scattering. In particular, x-ray emission peaks near the plasma critical density, so emission from optically thin lines provides information on plasma conditions where nonlocal transport is most likely to be significant. Three common heat transport models are considered: local transport with flux limiters f = 0.15 and f = 0.03, and the nonlocal Schurtz–Nicolai–Busquet (SNB) model. Consistent with previous work, both the high-flux (f = 0.15) and SNB models show good agreement with experimentally measured plasma conditions in the corona despite overpredicting laser absorption, whereas the low-flux (f = 0.03) model fails to match any experimental data. Conditions inferred from x-ray self-emission line ratios support this conclusion during the period of laser peak power, although synthetic spectra for all models fail to match the experiment during the transient portions of the pulse. For these reasons, the low-flux model is again rejected.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Effect of Ni substitution on the fragile magnetic system La 5 Co 2 Ge 3

La 5⁢ Co 2 ⁢Ge 3 is an itinerant ferromagnet with a Curie temperature T C of ~3.8K and a remarkably small saturated moment of 0.1µ B /Co. Here we present the growth and characterization of single crystals of the La 5 ⁢(Co 1–x⁢ Ni x ) 2 Ge 3 series for 0.00 ≤ x ≤ 0.186. Here we measured powder x-ray diffraction, composition as well as anisotropic temperature-dependent resistivity, temperature and field-dependent magnetization along with heat capacity on these single crystals. We also measured muon-spin rotation/relaxation (μ⁢SR) for some Ni substitutions (x = 0.027,0.036,0.074) to study the evolution of internal field with Ni substitution. Using the measured data we infer a low temperature, transition temperature-composition phase diagram for La 5 ⁢(Co 1–x ⁢Ni x ) 2 Ge 3 . We find that T C is suppressed for low dopings, x ≤ 0.014; whereas for 0.036 ≤ x ≤ 0.186, the samples are antiferromagnetic with a Néel temperature T N that goes through a weak and shallow maximum (T N ~ 3.4K for x~0.07) and then gradually decreases to 2.4 K by x = 0.186. For intermediate Ni substitutions, 0.016 ≤ x ≤ 0.027, two transition temperatures are inferred with T N >T C . Whereas the T–x phase diagram for La 5 ⁢(Co 1–x ⁢Ni x ) 2 Ge 3 and the T–p phase diagram determined for the parent La 5 ⁢Co 2 ⁢Ge 3 under hydrostatic pressure are grossly similar, changing from a low-doping or low-pressure ferromagnetic (FM) ground state to a high-doped or high-pressure antiferromagnetic (AFM) state, perturbation by Ni substitution enabled us to identify an intermediate doping regime where both FM and AFM transitions occur.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2025

Precision beam diagnostics at the NuMI facility using muon monitor observations

The Neutrinos at the Main Injector (NuMI) facility at Fermilab delivers an intense neutrino beam for multiple experiments by producing pions that decay into neutrinos, muons, and other particles. Magnetic horns—the primary pion focusing elements in the NuMI beamline—exhibit predominantly linear optics, enabling a predictable relationship between the proton beam and the resulting pion and muon phase spaces. This study has two primary objectives: first, to evaluate and confirm the linearity of the horn focusing mechanism using analytical models and numerical simulations; and second, to demonstrate that key beam parameters—such as proton beam intensity, beam position on target, and horn current—can be extracted from muon monitor observations within this linear optics framework. Using a machine learning model trained on spill-by-spill muon monitor data, we infer the horn current with a precision of ±0.05%, the beam intensity with ±0.1%, and the beam position on target with ±0.018⁢ mm horizontally and ±0.013⁢ mm vertically. This approach provides a reliable cross-check of beam parameters, helping to reduce systematic uncertainties that are critical for future experiments such as the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment, which will rely on the neutrino beam produced by the Long-Baseline Neutrino Facility.

Beam control↗