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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2019

The Large UV/Optical/Infrared Surveyor (LUVOIR): Decadal Mission Concept Study Update

In preparation for the 2020 Decadal Survey in Astronomy and Astrophysics, NASA commissioned the study of four large mission concepts: the Large UV/Optical/Infrared Surveyor (LUVOIR), the Habitable Exoplanet Imager (HabEx), the far-infrared surveyor Origins Space Telescope (OST), and the X-ray surveyor Lynx. The LUVOIR Science and Technology Definition Team (STDT) has identified a broad range of science objectives for LUVOIR that include the direct imaging and spectral characterization of habitable exoplanets around sun-like stars, the study of galaxy formation and evolution, the exchange of matter between galaxies, star and planet formation, and the remote sensing of Solar System objects. The LUVOIR Study Office, located at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), is developing two mission concepts to achieve the science objectives. LUVOIR-A is a 15-meter segmented-aperture observatory that would be launched in an 8.4-meter extended fairing on the Space Launch System (SLS) Block 2 configuration. LUVOIR-B is an 8-meter unobscured segmented aperture telescope that fits in a smaller, conventional 5-meter fairing, but still requires the lift capacity of the SLS Block 1B Cargo vehicle. Both concepts include a suite of serviceable instruments: the Extreme Coronagraph for Living Planetary Systems (ECLIPS), an optical/near-infrared coronagraph capable of delivering 10 (sup minus 10) contrast at inner working angles as small as 2 lambda divided by D; the LUVOIR UV Multi-object Spectrograph (LUMOS), which will provide low- and medium-resolution UV (100-400 nanometer) multi-object imaging spectroscopy in addition to far-UV imaging; the High Definition Imager (HDI), a high-resolution wide-field-of-view NUV-Optical-NIR imager. LUVOIR-A also has a fourth instrument, Pollux, a high-resolution UV spectro-polarimeter being contributed by Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales (CNES). This paper provides an overview of the LUVIOR science objectives, design drivers, and mission concepts.

Decadal Study↗
NASA NTRS2019

The Large UV/Optical/Infrared Surveyor (LUVOIR): Decadal Mission Concept Study Update

In preparation for the 2020 Decadal Survey in Astronomy and Astrophysics, NASA commissioned the study of four large mission concepts: the Large UV/Optical/Infrared Surveyor (LUVOIR), the Habitable Exoplanet Imager (HabEx), the far-infrared surveyor Origins Space Telescope (OST), and the X-ray surveyor Lynx. The LUVOIR Science and Technology Definition Team (STDT) has identified a broad range of science objectives for LUVOIR that include the direct imaging and spectral characterization of habitable exoplanets around sun-like stars, the study of galaxy formation and evolution, the exchange of matter between galaxies, star and planet formation, and the remote sensing of Solar System objects. The LUVOIR Study Office, located at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), is developing two mission concepts to achieve the science objectives. LUVOIR-A is a 15-meter segmented-aperture observatory that would be launched in an 8.4-m extended fairing on the Space Launch System (SLS) Block 2 configuration. LUVOIR-B is an 8-meter unobscured segmented aperture telescope that fits in a smaller, conventional 5-meter fairing, but still requires the lift capacity of the SLS Block 1B Cargo vehicle. Both concepts include a suite of serviceable instruments: the Extreme Coronagraph for Living Planetary Systems (ECLIPS), an optical/near-infrared coronagraph capable of delivering 10 (sup minus10) contrast at inner working angles as small as 2 lambda divided by D; the LUVOIR UV Multi-object Spectrograph (LUMOS), which will provide low- and medium-resolution UV (100-400 nanometer) multi-object imaging spectroscopy in addition to far-UV imaging; the High Definition Imager (HDI), a high-resolution wide-field-of-view NUV-Optical-NIR imager. LUVOIR-A also has a fourth instrument, Pollux, a high-resolution UV spectro-polarimeter being contributed by Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales (CNES). This paper provides an overview of the LUVIOR science objectives, design drivers, and mission concepts.

Decadal Study↗
DOE OSTI2020

Uncertainty Quantification in Atomistic Modeling of Metals and Its Effect on Mesoscale and Continuum Modeling: A Review

The design of next-generation alloys through the integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) approach relies on multiscale computer simulations to provide thermodynamic properties when experiments are difficult to conduct. Atomistic methods such as density functional theory (DFT) and molecular dynamics (MD) have been successful in predicting properties of never before studied compounds or phases. However, uncertainty quantification (UQ) of DFT and MD results is rarely reported due to computational and UQ methodology challenges. Over the past decade, studies that mitigate this gap have emerged. These advances are reviewed in the context of thermodynamic modeling and information exchange with mesoscale methods such as the phase-field method (PFM) and calculation of phase diagrams (CALPHAD). The importance of UQ is illustrated using properties of metals, with aluminum as an example, and highlighting deterministic, frequentist, and Bayesian methodologies. Finally, challenges facing routine uncertainty quantification and an outlook on addressing them are also presented.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2019

Current Status of Shock Layer Radiation Studies for Planetary Probes

Radiative heating by the shock layer gases surrounding an entry probe is an important heating mechanism for many planetary entries. The magnitude of radiative heating for planetary atmospheres may be characterized with flight similarity in a shock tube capable of obtaining flight relevant velocities and atmospheric density/composition. Over the last decade, studies performed in the Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) at NASA Ames have characterized the radiative heating magnitudes for most relevant planetary destinations: Mars, Venus, Titan, Saturn, Uranus. Predictions of heating for a given entry trajectory are simulated by a combination of hypersonic flowfield modeling and the radiation code, NEQAIR, and then compared to the EAST test data. This paper will discuss the measurements, summarize the current simulation capability and provide indications for destination specific radiative heating uncertainties.

Cruden, Brett A.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Affordable Development and Demonstration of a Small NTR engine and Stage: A Preliminary NASA, DOE, and Industry Assessment

In FY'11, Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP) was identified as a key propulsion option under the Advanced In-Space Propulsion (AISP) component of NASA's Exploration Technology Development and Demonstration (ETDD) program A strategy was outlined by GRC and NASA HQ that included 2 key elements -"Foundational Technology Development" followed by specific "Technology Demonstration" projects. The "Technology Demonstration "element proposed ground technology demonstration (GTD) testing in the early 2020's, followed by a flight technology demonstration (FTD) mission by approx. 2025. In order to reduce development costs, the demonstration projects would focus on developing a small, low thrust (approx. 7.5 -16.5 klb(f)) engine that utilizes a "common" fuel element design scalable to the higher thrust (approx. 25 klb(f)) engines used in NASA's Mars DRA 5.0 study(NASA-SP-2009-566). Besides reducing development costs and allowing utilization of existing, flight proven engine hard-ware (e.g., hydrogen pumps and nozzles), small, lower thrust ground and flight demonstration engines can validate the technology and offer improved capability -increased payloads and decreased transit times -valued for robotic science missions identified in NASA's Decadal Study.

Spacecraft design↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Evolution of the Orbiting Sample Container for a Future Mars Sample Return

Although NASA has no specific plans at this time to return samples from Mars, the Program Formulation Office of the Mars Exploration Program sponsors ongoing mission concept studies, systems analyses, and technology investments which explore different strategies for the potential return of samples from Mars, consistent with the charter of the program and stated priorities of the science community. A critical component of such a campaign would be an Orbiting Sample container (OS), which would contain the Mars samples to be returned to Earth. This paper discusses the most recent efforts by the JPL’s Mars Formulation Office to mature an OS design planned for use on a potential Mars Sample Return (MSR) mission. Similar to the “Decadal Study Architecture” [1], the current MSR architecture envisions as a three-mission campaign with each mission serving a critical role towards returning Martian rock and atmospheric samples back to Earth. An OS would be a central piece of hardware in the proposed MSR architecture due to its interfaces to all the three missions of the potential campaign. Additionally, numerous stakeholders and subsystems such as science and planetary protection impose challenging requirements on the OS’s functions and capabilities. As a result, designing an OS that meets all the requirements is challenging and quite complex. The story of the OS’s evolution from black box concept thru to the current-and-still-maturing baseline design is the focus of this paper. From the OS’s launch off Earth aboard a Sample Retrieval Lander (SRL) through to return to Earth, the design and functional requirements generated by and for each stage of the OS’s mission are discussed. Then, with an understanding of what the OS would be required to do, a mapping of the main requirements to the design features of the current OS concept is explained. Many tests and analyses have been conducted to support and validate the current OS design. Results from test and analysis in the areas of aerothermal, impact dynamics, optical tracking, and radio electromagnetics are presented.

Spencer, David↗
NASA NTRS2016

Exploring the Science Trade Space with the JPL Innovation Foundry A-Team

The JPL Innovation Foundry has established a new approach for exploring, developing, and evaluating early concepts with a group called the Architecture Team (A-Team). The A-Team combines innovative collaborative methods and facilitated sessions with subject matter experts and analysis tools to help mature mission concepts. Science, implementation, and programmatic elements are all considered during an ATeam study. In these studies, Concept Maturity Levels (CML) are used to group methods. These levels include idea generation and capture (CML 1), initial feasibility assessment (CML 2), and trade space exploration (CML 3). Methods used for exploring the science objectives, feasibility, and scope will be described including use of a new technique for understanding the most compelling science, called a Science Return Diagram (SRD). In the process of developing the SRD, gradients in the science trade space are uncovered along with their implications for implementation and mission architecture. Special attention is paid towards developing complete investigations, establishing a series of logical claims that lead to the natural selection of a measurement approach. Over 20 science-focused A-Team studies have used these techniques to help science teams refine their mission objectives, make implementation decisions and reveal the mission concept’s most compelling science. This paper will describe the A-Team process for exploring the mission concept's science trade space and the Science Return Diagram technique.In June of 2011 a new collaborative engineering approach forearly concept formulation began in the JPL InnovationFoundry [1], six months later becoming the “A-Team” [2].Responding to a need for exploring mission architecturelevel trades [3], the A-Team precedes Team X [4,5] in asequence of concurrent engineering teams at JPL that can beused to mature a concept from a “cocktail napkin” level ideato a complete mission point design. The A-Team efficientlyexplores the science, implementation, and programmatictrade space in early concept formulation. Small, facilitatedgroups of experts generate innovative ideas, quantitativelyassess feasibility, and discover key sensitivities in the tradespace through collaborative analysis and use of advancedmethods and tools. The A-Team process builds off theexperience within JPL and other recent approaches to earlyconcept formulation [6] including best practices of the JPLInnovation Foundry, Project Systems Engineering &Formulation Section, Team Eureka and the Rapid MissionArchitecture Team[7].The A-Team is a focal point for innovative formulationapproaches and people within JPL. It relies on a largebackground of study resources, creative thinkers and “greybeard” scrutinizers, advanced tools, and subject matterexperts with both breadth and depth in experience andexpertise that are all available at JPL. The A-Team isdesigned to be a rapid and efficient process takingapproximately 6 weeks (the entire process can be as short asjust a few days or as long as up to three months) and costingthe equivalent of a work-month of a full-time employee orless. Studies begin with detailed planning and client reviewfollowed by study sessions, analysis work, and reporting.The staffing on each study is customized to the study goalsand objectives, and it is addressed early in the A-Teamprocess. Sessions are generally half-day or whole-day eventsand conducted over a series of days with focused agendas thatare moderated by a trained facilitator. Preliminary results andknowledge capture are available within hours of each session,and a final report is generally available two weeks later.One of the biggest challenges facing early conceptdevelopment is understanding the gradient in science returnversus various available mission scenarios and payload options. Often times, major areas of scientific inquiry havealready been prioritized by science groups, including throughthe National Research Council’s Decadal Studies inAstronomy, Planetary, and Earth Science. Yet science teamscontinue to struggle, especially in competitive missionsolicitations, to capture the right amount of scope that’sachievable within the cost constraints of the opportunity.Often the desire to completely and comprehensively study ascience area in just one mission (after all, true missionopportunities are rare) drives teams to take on too much,providing requirements that are unachievable within theresources of the opportunity without inducing unacceptableimplementation risk. Alternatively, science teams can seekto reduce risk by using an established instrument, but havenot thought through the traceability and key aspects of thescience question to justify its use. Both scenarios lead to badassumptions at the beginning of the concept development thatcan then ripple through implementation option choices,potentially preventing what would have been a good scienceinvestigation from being selected.The purpose of this paper is first to provide some additionalbackground and summary of the A-Team process, tools,people, and facilities. We then focus on the A-Teammethodology for overcoming the barriers of defining thescience scope well at the early concept development stage.This includes understanding the science story andtraceability, and then examining the gradient in science returnversus key characteristics of observables, developing theright payload and mission requirement specification throughexamining the science and implementation trade space.

Ziemer, John K.↗
NASA NTRS2010

NASA Perspectives on Earth Observations from Satellite or 50 Years of Meteorological Satellite Experiments-The NASA Perspective

The NASA was established in 1959. From those very eady days to the present NASA has been intimately involved with NOAA and the scientific community in the development and operation of satellite and sensor experiments. The early efforts included experiments on the TIROS and geostationary Applications Technology Satellites (ATS) series. In the latter case the spin-scan cameras conceived by Verner Suomi, along with the TIROS cameras, opened new vistas at what could be done in meteorological studies with the daily, nearly global, synoptic views from space-borne sensors As the years passed and the Nimbus series of satellites came into being in the 1960's, more quantitative observations with longer-lifetime, increasingly capable, better calibrated instruments came into being. NASA, in collaboration with and in support of NOAA, implemented operational systems that we now know as the Polar Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) series and the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) series that provided dependable, continuous, dedicated satellite observations for use by the weather and atmospheric science communities. Through the 1970's, 1980's, and 1990's improved, well-calibrated instruments with more spectral bands extending into the thermal and the microwave portions of the electromagnetic spectrum were provided to obtain accurate soundings of the atmosphere, atmospheric chemistry constituents such as ozone, global sea surface temperature, snow and ice extent, vegetation dynamics, etc. In the 1990's and up to the present the NASA/Earth Observing System (EOS) has been developed, implemented, and operated over many years to provide a very comprehensive suite of observations of the atmosphere, as well as land and ocean parameters. The future looks bright wherein the development of new systems, broadly described by the National Academy of Science Decadal Study, is now underway. NASA, along with collaborations with NOAA, other agencies, and the scientific and applications communities looks forward to achieving in the years to come goals possible with the global information provided by satellites and continuously improved with technology development, joint data assimilation efforts, and attendant research studies.

Einaudi, Franco↗
DOE OSTI2023

Growth of carbon nanotube forests on flexible metal substrates: Advances, challenges, and applications

Owing to their remarkable properties and ordered architecture, vertically aligned CNT forests (VACNT) hold promises for countless applications ranging from energy storage to multifunctional fiber production. Over the last three decades, studies of carbon nanotube (CNT) growth have provided invaluable insight into the CNT nucleation and growth mechanism and enabled critical advancements in nanotechnology. Nevertheless, the ability to fully harness the exceptional VACNT properties in commercial devices is bottlenecked by compatibility of current CNT synthesis processes with large-scale manufacturing. Metal foil substrates present an economic alternative to traditional insulating substrates, like silicon or quartz, and are compatible with both roll-to-roll and automated, large-scale, batch processes. Compared to CNT growth on Si substrates, metal foils present additional challenges, such as increased roughness and reactivity at high temperatures. Nonetheless, many successful VACNT growths on conducting metal foils have been reported, which demonstrate the feasibility of metal substrate use for large-volume production of high-quality CNTs. Here, in this review, we discuss advancements in the field of VACNT growth on metal foil and specifically examine different choices for metal substrates, barrier and catalyst layers, deposition and growth methods, resulting CNT characteristics, and highlight a number of applications that benefit from CNT growth on metal substrates and transition to large-scale manufacturing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Life strategies for Aminicenantia in subseafloor oceanic crust

Abstract After decades studying the microbial “deep biosphere” in subseafloor oceanic crust, the growth and life strategies in this anoxic, low energy habitat remain poorly described. Using both single cell genomics and metagenomics, we reveal the life strategies of two distinct lineages of uncultivated Aminicenantia bacteria from the basaltic subseafloor oceanic crust of the eastern flank of the Juan de Fuca Ridge. Both lineages appear adapted to scavenge organic carbon, as each have genetic potential to catabolize amino acids and fatty acids, aligning with previous Aminicenantia reports. Given the organic carbon limitation in this habitat, seawater recharge and necromass may be important carbon sources for heterotrophic microorganisms inhabiting the ocean crust. Both lineages generate ATP via several mechanisms including substrate-level phosphorylation, anaerobic respiration, and electron bifurcation driving an Rnf ion translocation membrane complex. Genomic comparisons suggest these Aminicenantia transfer electrons extracellularly, perhaps to iron or sulfur oxides consistent with mineralogy of this site. One lineage, called JdFR-78, has small genomes that are basal to the Aminicenantia class and potentially use “primordial” siroheme biosynthetic intermediates for heme synthesis, suggesting this lineage retain characteristics of early evolved life. Lineage JdFR-78 contains CRISPR-Cas defenses to evade viruses, while other lineages contain prophage that may help prevent super-infection or no detectable viral defenses. Overall, genomic evidence points to Aminicenantia being well adapted to oceanic crust environments by taking advantage of simple organic molecules and extracellular electron transport.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Quick Rise and Fall of LK-99 as a Room Temperature Superconductor [Slides]

A swift determination of superconductivity vs non-superconductivity of LK-99 demonstrates the importance of reproducibility in science. This has benefited from 4 decades study of high-temperature cuprate mechanism. Holy grail of room-temperature ambient-pressure superconductor remains to be pursued. Caution is needed about DFT calculations. Crucial old experimental data should be referenced. With the existing amount of experimentally discovered superconductors, could data science make a stride?

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Ion Channel Laser Based on Direct Laser Acceleration of a Shaped Beam Driver (Final Technical Report)

The main focus of our research was to understand the synergies between an electron bunch and a laser pulse when the two co-propagate through the plasma. We have clearly demonstrated using theoretical and computational modeling that the propagation distance of both the bunch and the laser pulse could be extended. The ability of the combined bunch/pulse system to extend the propagation distance and the size of the plasma bubble enables highly-efficient sources of relativistic electrons. As pointed out by the Plasma Decadal Study, such electron sources can be used for generating extremely bright x-rays for a variety of applications can serve as probes and diagnostics for other plasma experiments: high energy density (HED) sciences, inertial confinement fusion (ICF), and potentially Fusion Materials and Technology (FM&T). Development of advanced diagnostics of plasma-based accelerators is yet another key area identified by recent reports. Even broader security and medical applications of compact accelerator-based radiation sources, such as very high energy electron (VHEE) sources for FLASH radiobiology, have been identified by a recent multi-agency panel. A number of key technical issues were considered and successfully resolved during the course of the grant. Those include: beam loading effect of both the driver and witness bunches on the wake, laser channeling by the bunch, and the direct laser acceleration (DLA) of the driver bunch by the laser pulse. To demonstrate clear synergy, we were able to ascertain that the total energy gain of a witness bunch in the wake of the combined bunch/laser complex is large than the sum of the energy gains in the wake of the laser pulse alone, and the driver bunch alone. We have also demonstrated that not only the energy gain is improved, but the energy spread is not sacrificed. To carry out these simulations, we have to develop a range of in-house computational tools, including a fully-3D code WAND-PIC.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
NASA NTRS2010

180-GHz I-Q Second Harmonic Resistive Mixer MMIC

An indium phosphide MMIC (monolithic microwave integrated circuit) mixer was developed, processed, and tested in the NGC 35-nm-gate-length HEMT (high electron mobility transistor) process. This innovation is very compact in size and operates with very low LO power. Because it is a resistive mixer, this innovation does not require DC power. This is an enabling technology for the miniature receiver modules for the GeoSTAR instrument, which is the only viable option for the NRC decadal study mission PATH.

Kangaslahti, Pekka P.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Stirling to Flight Initiative

NASA has a consistent need for radioisotope power systems (RPS) to enable robotic scientific missions for planetary exploration that has been present for over four decades and will continue into the foreseeable future, as documented in the most recent Planetary Science Decadal Study Report. As RPS have evolved throughout the years, there has also grown a desire for more efficient power systems, allowing NASA to serve as good stewards of the limited plutonium-238 (238Pu), while also supporting the ever-present need to minimize mass and potential impacts to the desired science measurements. In fact, the recent Nuclear Power Assessment Study (NPAS) released in April 2015 resulted in several key conclusion regarding RPS, including affirmation that RPS will be necessary well into the 2030s (at least) and that 238Pu is indeed a precious resource requiring efficient utilization and preservation. Stirling Radioisotope Generators (SRGs) combine a Stirling cycle engine powered by a radioisotope heater unit into a single generator system. Stirling engine technology has been under development at NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) in partnership with the Department of Energy (DOE) since the 1970's. The most recent design, the 238Pu-fueled Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG), was offered as part of the NASA Discovery 2010 Announcement of Opportunity (AO). The Step-2 selections for this AO included two ASRG-enabled concepts, the Titan Mare Explorer (TiME) and the Comet Hopper (CHopper), although the only non-nuclear concept, InSight, was ultimately chosen. The DOE's ASRG contract was terminated in 2013. Given that SRGs utilize significantly less 238Pu than traditional Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generators (RTGs) - approximately one quarter of the nuclear fuel, to produce similar electrical power output - they provide a technology worthy of consideration for meeting the aforementioned NASA objectives. NASA's RPS Program Office has recently investigated a new Stirling to Flight (S2F) initiative with the objective of developing a 100-500 We Stirling generator system. Additionally, a different approach is being devised for this initiative to avoid pitfalls of the past, and apply lessons learned from the recent ASRG experience. Two key aspects of this initiative are a Stirling System Technology Maturation Effort, and a Surrogate Mission Team (SMT) intended to provide clear mission pull and requirements context. The S2F project seeks to lead directly into a DOE flight system development of a new SRG. This paper will detail the proposed S2F initiative, and provide specifics on the key efforts designed to pave a forward path for bringing Stirling technology to flight.

Robotics↗
NASA NTRS2019

A Neptune Orbiter Concept Using Drag Modulated Aerocaptue (DMA) and the Adaptable, Deployable Entry and Placement Technology (ADEPT)

Conceptual Neptune orbiter was designed for the purpose of assessing mission feasibilityBuilt off of the 2017 Pre-Decadal Study, but adapted for drag modulation aerocapture.Science payload includes: Narrow Angle camera, Doppler Imager, Magnetometer, Atmospheric Probe (w/ ASI, Nephelometer, Mass Spectrometer). Baseline concept of operations releases probe prior to orbit insertion, but investigations are ongoing to assess the feasibility of bringing the probe to orbit before release.

Wercinski, P.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Emerging and Re-Emerging Leishmaniases in the Mediterranean Area: What Can Be Learned from a Retrospective Review Analysis of the Situation in Morocco during 1990 to 2010?

In Morocco, cutaneous and visceral leishmaniases represent a public health concern. In this opinion paper, we propose to highlight chosen elements that have governed the drastic increase in the incidence of leishmaniases recorded in Morocco during the period between 1990 to 2010 in order to guide the prediction of the expansion of diseases and epidemic events. We highlight that the dispersion of the zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL) form, caused by the Leishmania major parasite, appears to be closely related to that of its arthropod vector density, which is sensitive to changes in climate. The dissemination of anthroponotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ACL) was related to an increase in human travel and local tourism during the studied decades. These are linked to economic expansion and infrastructure development. Interestingly, the main ACL foci are spatially aligned with the highways, and their occurrence was synchronized with the building of transportation infrastructure. During the above-mentioned decades, the zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis (ZVL)caused by Leishmania infantum has expanded from its historical northern territories, dispersing outwards in all directions. This spread follows the emergence of hamlets and villages connecting with major cities.

leishmaniases↗
NASA NTRS2023

Wetting and Drying Trends Under Climate Change

The geography and timing of changes in water availability under climate change are of considerable societal interest. Characterizing these changes in a robust and meaningful manner, however, has not been easy. In the past decade, studies have engaged two provocative hypotheses to explain and predict large-scale trends in water availability. One hypothesis holds that there will be increased contrasts in available water, as wet places become wetter and dry places become drier. Another hypothesis states that there will be global aridification, as widespread increases in evapotranspiration overwhelm changes in precipitation in most terrestrial regions. There is an extensive and sometimes contentious literature on the evidence for each. In some cases, these debates reflect direct disagreement, but the appearance of disagreement is exaggerated by the diversity of methods and terminologies employed in different studies. Herein we examine the applicability and limits of both hypotheses across different frameworks, scales and contexts, yielding insights on hydrologic change and the future of water availability.

Benjamin F. Zaitchik↗