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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Data Integration and Visualization for Enhanced Resilience and Sustainability in Hydropower (DIVERS-H)

U.S. hydropower plants face potential threats from shrinking water supply, rising demands, and warmer stream temperatures from various causes. Power plant owners, operators, and regulators require new tools to take advantage of and interpret the diverse range of scientific data being produced by both observational methods (for example, satellite, radar, stream gauges) and computer modeling methods that evaluate and predict how earth's dynamic systems (atmosphere, oceans, land surface, and sea ice) are changing and interacting. Combining datasets such as these with AI-based analyses introduces a novel decision support system to help users anticipate and address potential impacts on power generation stations. This new technology has been named DIVERS-H for "Data Integration and Visualization for Enhanced Resilience and Sustainability in Hydropower." In Phase I, technical feasibility was established with the development and demonstration of all the new technologies that are required. Most notably, DIVERS-H will use new artificial intelligence (AI) methods to capture the complex dynamics of water availability, demand, and environmental changes. In addition, new data management software was developed, and a prototype user interface was implemented as the precursor to a full scale decision support system. With technical research complete, the project focus now shifts to development of a commercial software product to provide users with actionable insight into water availability and the risk/resilience of critical systems at their locations of interest. Although DIVER-H was originally conceived as a tool for hydroelectric power applications, the same underlying technology can be readily applied to other water-consuming systems including coal, natural gas, oil, and nuclear power plants.

Chaudhary, Aashish [Kitware, Inc., Clifton Park, N↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optimization for Bioenergy Systems

The Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Grand Challenge (Langholtz, 2024 ) seeks to generate 35 billion gallons of SAF each year by 2050, with corn stover, an agricultural byproduct, playing a key role as a feedstock. This study develops an optimization framework to enhance the quality and quantity of corn stover while ensuring economic and environmental viability. Using the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) crop model, we simulate the effects of cover crops on rotation yield, soil moisture balance, and nitrogen cycling across diverse climates and soils. The model outputs, including yield data and soil quality changes, inform a Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) optimization model. This model aims to maximize economic and environmental returns by incorporating production costs, direct and indirect income, and environmental incentives. The optimization model evaluates 280 agriculture management plans composed of various crop management strategies, including corn stover removal rates, cover crop adoption, and fertilization practices. It seeks to identify the optimal combination of crop and tillage decisions for each subfield, maximizing profits while enhancing soil carbon sequestration and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Outputs include detailed subfield locations, optimal management plans, and profits per hectare and per acre, allowing for comparison with literature values on farm profits. This study provides a robust optimization framework supporting the SAF Grand Challenge by proposing economically viable and environmentally sustainable strategies for corn stover utilization. The findings highlight corn stover's potential as a sustainable feedstock for SAF production, offering practical solutions to enhance its quality and quantity while maintaining soil health. Idaho is used as a case study to demonstrate the framework's applicability and effectiveness in real-world scenarios. Langholtz, M. H., Davis, M., Hellwinckel, C., De La Torre Ugarte, D., Efroymson, R., Jacobson, R., Milbrandt, A., Coleman, A., Davis, R., Kline, K. L., Badgett, A., Curran, S., Schmidt, E., Theiss, T., Fried, J., English, B., Lambert, L., Cook, H., Field, J., ... Walker, L. (2024). 2023 Billion-Ton Report: An Assessment of U.S. Renewable Carbon Resources. https://doi.org/10.2172/2441098 DSSAT Foundation. (2025). Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT). Retrieved from https://dssat.net/

09 - BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

“Shoulda, Coulda, Woulda”: Conceptualizing the Differences in Trust Between Human-Human Teaming and Human-Machine Teaming

Intelligent decision support systems (IDSSs) are machine teammates designed to facilitate better human decision-making in high-consequence domains such as health care, power grid operations, and fraud detection. IDSSs identify patterns in datasets and provide intelligent decision-making recommendations to human teammates. However, previous research indicates that humans often trust IDSS recommendations less than the recommendations from their human teammates, even when the machine teammate is more accurate. To conceptualize why trust differs, we review the literature surrounding trust, error, and predictability. Then, we compile and compare participant trust ratings and decision-making in an abridged systematic review of previous studies manipulating teammate type, error rate, and error type. Finally, we conduct a content analysis of participants’ qualitative responses to trust queries from a survey on generative language models. Results suggest that humans may trust IDSS teammates less than other human teammates because of differences in (1) interaction complexity, (2) blame attribution, and (3) swift trust. We conclude that human factors practitioners should collaborate with data scientists and domain experts to build and maintain trust in IDSSs by anthropomorphizing algorithms, matching mental models, and considering individual differences.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Typology of Decision-Making Tasks for Visualization

Despite decision-making being a vital goal of data visualization, little work has been done to differentiate decision-making tasks within the field. While visualization task taxonomies and typologies exist, they often focus on more granular analytical tasks that are too low-level to describe large complex decisions, which can make it difficult to reason about and design decision-support tools. In this paper, we contribute a typology of decision-making tasks that were iteratively refined from a list of design goals distilled from a literature review. Our typology is concise and consists of only three tasks: CHOOSE, ACTIVATE, and CREATE. Although decision types originating in other disciplines exist, we provide definitions for these tasks that are suitable for the visualization community. Our proposed typology offers two benefits. First, the ability to compose and hierarchically organize the tasks enables flexible and clear descriptions of decisions with varying levels of complexities. Second, the typology encourages productive discourse between visualization designers and domain experts by abstracting the intricacies of data, thereby promoting clarity and rigorous analysis of decision-making processes. We demonstrate the benefits of our typology through four case studies, and present an evaluation of the typology from semi-structured interviews with experienced members of the visualization community who have contributed to developing or publishing decision support systems for domain experts. Our interviewees used our typology to delineate the decision-making processes supported by their systems, demonstrating its descriptive capacity and effectiveness. Finally, we present preliminary findings on the usefulness of our typology for visualization design.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Autonomous System Subversion Tactics: Prototypes and Recommended Countermeasures

One of the fielding requirements for Advanced and Small Modular Reactors (AR/SMR) is the ability to support remote and autonomous operations. Autonomous Control Systems (ACS) are found on platforms such as Autonomous Space Vehicles, Cruise Missiles, and advanced driver-assistance systems. Each of these ACS implementations depends upon a set of decision support subsystems responsible for supporting Autonomous Mission Managers (names vary based upon field and author preferences). These Autonomous Mission Managers receive inputs from system sensors (e.g., LIDAR collection from an automobile travelling down a street; transients from a nuclear reactor), and perform a set of classifications (e.g., Red Traffic Light; Small Pedestrian at 10m; Load Rejection; Single Coolant Pump Trip), and then use these classifications in combination with recommendation algorithms to achieve platform goals (e.g., Stop the Vehicle at the Traffic Light, Avoid the Small Pedestrian; Trip the Reactor to prevent a Safety Event). The design, implementation, and fielding of an ACS capability will alter the cyber-attack surface such that existing risk management plans will need to be updated to include how to protect and defend against data-science and decision-support-system attack classes. These attack classes would include protection of the design and training environments where algorithm selection and testing and training data would be obvious attack vectors. These attack classes would also require an informed set of detection and response procedures to identify anomalous behaviors and document best practices for anomaly assessment and vulnerability mitigation and remediation. Last year we published a Cyber Threat Assessment Methodology for Autonomous and Remote Operations for AR/SMRs along with a companion publication on Cyber Attack and Defense Use Cases. The focus of the methodology was on describing and enumerating ACS processes, components, and functions such that security engineers could: evaluate subversion options against the target; identify threat actor attributes and capabilities derived from each subversion option; and identify security controls and response countermeasures. The Use Cases document offered detailed methodology examples including an assessment of a Military Base SMR, an Autonomous System Decision Loop, and implementation of AR/SMR Machine Learning algorithms. Our proposal at the end of last year was to focus on implementation of subversion prototypes related to the last Use Case area: AR/SMR Machine Learning (ML) Algorithms. We included six attack scenarios in our Use Cases paper: a Poisoning Attack against ML functions implemented using an FPGA; a Trojaning Attack against ML classifiers exploiting the excitability of Nuclear Engineers; a Backdooring Attack against ML Training environments to ensure persistence of an attack vector; a False Positive Evasion Attack against multi-factor Access Control Systems using clever inputs; an Inference Attack against ML models by an Insider with access to the Operational environment; and an Adversarial Reprogramming Attack against a Material Access Control Video Surveillance System. At the beginning of this year these six attack scenarios were provided to our research teams at Georgia Tech and Idaho State University and each team successfully implemented a subversion attack against a ML implementation to include transient misclassifications. While this is a notable outcome from this type of research, this paper offers the reader insight into not only how to structure and execute these types of attacks, but into the thought process behind how the researcher investigated the problem space, performed initial algorithm implementation, and the trial-and-error behind arriving at the successful subversion prototypes. We include in this paper a set of associated Scenarios on how these subversion prototypes could be implemented and an initial set of guidance for AR/SMR architects, Nuclear Regulators, and Cyber Defenders to implement awareness and defense capabilities into their current operational portfolios.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Neural-based time series forecasting of loss of coolant accidents in nuclear power plants

During the last few years, deep learning in neural networks has demonstrated impressive successes in the areas of computer vision, speech and image recognition, text generation, and many others. However, sensitive engineering areas such as nuclear engineering benefited less from these efficient techniques. In this work, deep learning expert systems are utilized to model and predict time series progression of a design-basis nuclear accident, featuring a loss of coolant accident. Two major findings are accomplished in this work. First, the ability to train expert systems with high accuracy, which could help nuclear power plant operators to figure out plant responses during the accident. Second, building fast, efficient, and accurate deep models to simulate nuclear phenomena, which could be valuable to nuclear computational science. In this work, large amount of time series data is obtained from simulation tools by simulating different conditions of the base-case/nominal accident scenario. Four critical outputs/responses are monitored during the accident (e.g. temperature, pressure, break flow rate, water level). Two approaches are adopted in this work. The first approach is to use feedforward deep neural networks (DNN) to fit all time steps and outputs in a single model. The second approach is to use long short-term memory (LSTM) to fit all time steps together for each reactor response separately. Both DNN and LSTM demonstrate very good performance in predicting the test and base-case scenarios, with accuracy as low as 92% and as high as 99%, where these test scenarios are unknown to the expert systems and are not included in the model training. In addition, both approaches demonstrate a significant reduction in computational costs, as the deep expert system is able to accurately predict the accident 100,000 times faster than the original simulation tool. Given sufficient data, the methodology adopted in this study demonstrates that DNN/LSTM expert systems can be used as a decision support system to model advanced time series phenomena within nuclear power plants with high accuracy and negligible computational costs.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evolving language of pediatric anxiety in electronic health records

Objectives This study aimed to identify and quantify semantic drift (ie, the change in semantic meaning over time) within expert-defined anxiety-related (AR) terminology and compare it to common electronic health record (EHR) vocabulary across longitudinal pediatric clinical notes. Materials and Methods A corpus of pediatric clinical notes from 2009 to 2022 was analyzed using computational methods. Semantic drift for each term was quantified using cosine similarity between annual temporal word embeddings. Contextual meaning was examined through changes in nearest neighbors across years. The Laws of Semantic Change were applied to assess the influence of word frequency and polysemy. Vocabulary terms were categorized as AR or common EHR. Results 98% of AR terminology maintained a cosine similarity between 0.00 and 0.50, indicating moderate semantic stability, whereas 90% of common EHR terms remained between 0.00 and 0.25, showing greater contextual stability overall. Frequent terms exhibited minimal change (Frequency Coefficient = 0.04), whereas highly polysemous or abbreviated terms showed less stability (Polysemy Coefficient = 0.630). AR terminology drifted more slowly than general EHR vocabulary (Type Coefficient = −0.179), further supported by significant year–type interactions (Coef = −0.09 to −0.523). Discussion Although anxiety-related terminology demonstrates slower semantic drift than general EHR vocabulary, subtle contextual shifts still occur that may affect downstream interpretability and retrieval in automated systems. Conclusion Continuous linguistic monitoring and adaptive modeling are essential to maintain semantic fidelity and ensure the long-term reliability of clinical decision support systems as healthcare documentation evolves.

Pediatric anxiety disorders↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evolution of Programmatic Asset Lifecycle Planning at MESA

Early on in 2018 Sandia recognized the Microsystems Engineering, Science and Applications (MESA) Programmatic Asset Lifecycle Planning capability to be unpredictable, inconsistent, reactive, and unable to provide strong linkage to the sponsor's needs. The impetus for this report is to share learnings from MESA's journey towards maturing this capability. This report describes re-building the foundational elements of MESA's Programmatic Asset Lifecycle Planning capability using a risk-based, Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) approach. To begin, MESA's decades-old Piano Chart + Ad Hoc Hybrid Methodology is described with a narrative of its strengths and weaknesses. Then its replacement, the MCDA /Analytical Hierarchy Process, is introduced with a discussion of its strengths and weaknesses. To generate a realistic Programmatic Asset Lifecycle Planning budget outlook, MESA used its rolling 20-year Extended Life Program Plan (MELPP) as a baseline. The new MCDA risk-based prioritization methodology implements DOE/NNSA guidelines for prioritization of DOE activities and provides a reliable, structured framework for combining expert judgement and stakeholder preferences according to an established scientific technique. An in-house Hybrid Decision Support System (HDSS) software application was developed to facilitate production of several key deliverables. The application enables analysis of the prioritization decisions with charts to display and provide linkage of MESA's funding requests to the stakeholders' priorities, strategic objectives, nuclear deterrence programs, MESA priorities, and much more.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Architecture for Web-Based Visualization of Large-Scale Energy Domains: Preprint

With the growing penetration of inverter-based distributed energy resources and increased loads through electrification, power systems analyses are becoming more important and more complex. Moreover, these analyses increasingly involve the combination of interconnected energy domains with data that are spatially and temporally increasing in scale by orders of magnitude, surpassing the capabilities of many existing analysis and decision-support systems. We present the architectural design, development, and application of a high-resolution web-based visualization environment capable of cross-domain analysis of tens of millions of energy assets, focusing on scalability and performance. Our system supports the exploration, navigation, and analysis of large data from diverse domains such as electrical transmission and distribution systems, mobility and electric vehicle charging networks, communications networks, cyber assets, and other supporting infrastructure. We evaluate this system across multiple use cases, describing the capabilities and limitations of a web-based approach for high-resolution energy system visualizations.

grid modernization↗
DOE OSTI2022

Image transformers for classifying acute lymphoblastic leukemia

Cancer is the leading cause of death by disease in American children. Each year, nearly 16,000 children in the United States and over 300,000 children globally are diagnosed with cancer. Leukemia is a form of blood cancer that originates in the bone marrow and accounts for one-third of pediatric cancers. This disease occurs when the bone marrow contains 20% or more immature white blood cell blasts. Acute lymphoblastic leukemia is the most prevalent leukemia type found in children, with half of all annual cases in the U.S. diagnosed for subjects under 20 years of age. To diagnose acute lymphoblastic leukemia, pathologists often conduct a morphological bone marrow assessment. This assessment determines whether the immature white blood cell blasts in bone marrow display the correct morphological characteristics, such as size and appearance of nuclei. Pathologists also use immunophenotyping via multi-channel flow cytometry to test whether certain antigens are present on the surface of blast cells; the antigens are used to identify the cell lineage of acute lymphoblastic leukemia. These manual processes require well-trained personnel and medical professionals, thus being costly in time and expenses. Computerized decision support via machine learning can accelerate the diagnosis process and reduce the cost. Training a reliable classification model to distinguish between mature and immature white blood cells is essential to the decision support system. Here, we adopted the Vision Transformer model to classify white blood cells. The Vision Transformer achieved superb classification performance compared to state-of-the-art convolutional neural networks while requiring less computational resources for training. Additionally, the latent self-attention architecture provided attention maps for a given image, providing clues as to which portion(s) of the image were significant in decision-making. We applied the Vision Transformer model and a convolutional neural network model to an acute lymphoblastic leukemia classification dataset of 12,528 samples and achieved accuracies of 88.4% and 86.2%.

Cho, Priscilla↗
DOE OSTI2023

Cycles-L: A Coupled, 3-D, Land Surface, Hydrologic, and Agroecosystem Landscape Model

Managing landscapes to increase agricultural productivity and environmental stewardship can be informed by spatially-distributed models that operate at spatial and temporal scales that are intervention-relevant. This paper presents Cycles-L, a landscape-scale agroecosystem and hydrologic modeling system, using as a test case a watershed in Pennsylvania. Cycles-L emerges from melding the landscape and hydrology structure of Flux-PIHM, a 3-D land surface hydrologic model, with the agroecosystem processes in the Cycles model. Consequently, Cycles-L can simulate processes affected by topography, soil heterogeneity, and management practices, owing to its physically-based hydrology that can simulate horizontal and vertical transport of solutes with water. The model was tested at a 730-ha experimental watershed within the Mahantango Creek watershed. Cycles-L simulated well stream water and mineral nitrogen discharge (Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient 0.55 and 0.60, respectively) and grain yield (root mean square error 1.2 Mg ha -1 ). Cycles-L outputs are as good or better than those obtained with the uncoupled Flux-PIHM (water discharge) and Cycles (grain yield) models. Modeled spatial patterns of nitrogen fluxes like denitrification illustrate the combined control of crop management and topography. For example, denitrification is almost twice as high when simulated with Cycles-L than when simulated with Cycles 1-D. Due to its spatial and temporal resolution, Cycles-L fills a gap in the availability of models that operate at a scale relevant to evaluate interventions in the landscape. Cycles-L can become a central component in tools for climate change scenario analysis, precision agriculture, precision conservation, and artificial intelligence-based decision support systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

An ensemble method for nuclei detection of overlapping cervical cells

The Pap test is a preventive approach that requires specialized and labor-intensive examination of cytological preparations to track potentially cancerous cells from the internal and external cervix surface. A cytopathologist must analyze many microscopic fields while screening for abnormal cells. Therefore the expectation is that a support decision system could assist with screening the most relevant cells, for example, by identifying sub-cellular abnormalities, such as changes in the nuclei features. Here, this work proposes a computational method for cervical nuclei detection aimed to reduce the workload of cytopathologists.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hierarchical median narrow band for level set segmentation of cervical cell nuclei

This paper presents a novel hierarchical nuclei segmentation algorithm for isolated and overlapping cervical cells based on a narrow band level set implementation. Our method applies a new multiscale analysis algorithm to estimate the number of clusters in each image region containing cells, which turns into the input to a narrow band level set algorithm. We assess the nuclei segmentation results on three public cervical cell image databases. Overall, our segmentation method outperformed six state-of-the-art methods concerning the number of correctly segmented nuclei and the Dice coefficient reached values equal to or higher than 0.90. We also carried out classification experiments using features extracted from our segmentation results and the proposed pipeline achieved the highest average accuracy values equal to 0.89 and 0.77 for two-class and three-class problems, respectively. Furthermore, these results demonstrated the suitability of the proposed segmentation algorithm to integrate decision support systems for cervical cell screening.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Explainable Artificial Intelligence in Endocrinological Medical Research

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has been a part of the medical community for decades in the form of Clinical Decision Support Systems (CDSS) to aide physicians in diagnosis and categorization of patients (1). Recent years have seen a shift from expert-derived models to the integration of machine learning (ML) algorithms to drive the output of these AI systems due to the ability of ML models to more accurately make predictions by exploiting higher dimensional and often complex data. In many cases ML models gain their advantage in accuracy by capture complex and often non-linear relationships between features being used to make the prediction. However, the hype and excitement around these methods are tempered by the clinical utility of often black-box solutions driven by skepticism of results that are difficult for practitioners to not only interpret but explain to their patients (1-3). This skepticism is not unfounded as multiple examples of black-box solutions identifying incidental correlates as the key predictors have highlighted the potential bias in a training set, or reward system, that a ML model may exploit; for example a model discerning wolves from huskies based on snow in the background rather than features of the dogs (1, 4, 5).

Endocrinological, artificial intelligence, diabete↗
DOE OSTI2022

CyclusJS: A Distributed Web-based Fuel Cycle Visual Analytics. Research Performance (Final Report)

The overall aim of the CyclusJS project has been to design novel approaches that support fuel cycle simulations and empower decision-makers and researchers with better tools to compare and contrast results from multiple simulations to understand the landscape of potential outcomes better. In particular, nuclear fuel cycle simulations focus on modeling the nuclear industry and ecosystem at a macroscopic level, and the analysis tools connect such simulations with decision support systems. As a demonstration of the novelty and effectiveness of the proposed approach, we study scenarios for transitioning from one technology, Light Water Reactors (LWR), to a newer Sodium-cooled Fast breeder Reactor (SFR) technology.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI1996

Nuclear Safety [Vol. 37, No. 1, January-March 1996]

Nuclear Safety is a journal that covers significant issues in the field of nuclear safety. Its primary scope is safety in the design, construction, operation, and decommissioning of nuclear power reactors worldwide and the research and analysis activities that promote this goal, but it also encompasses the safety aspects of the entire nuclear fuel cycle, including fuel fabrication, spent-fuel processing and handling, and nuclear waste disposal, the handling of fissionable materials and radioisotopes, and the environmental effects of all these activities. Table of Contents for this issue follows. GENERAL SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS: 1 A Decision Support System for Maintenance Management of a Boiling-Water Reactor Power Plant, J. H. Shen, A. Ray, and S. Levine; ACCIDENT ANALYSIS: 12 On Prediction of the Ignition Potential of Uranium Metal and Hydride, M. Epstein, W. Luangdilok, M. G. Plys, and H. K. Fauske; 26 An Overview of the Primary Parameters and Methods for Determining Condensation Heat Transfer to Containment Structures, J. Green and K. Almenas; DESIGN FEATURES: 49 Modem Tornado Design of Nuclear and Other Potentially Hazardous Facilities, J. D. Stevenson and Y. Zaho; U.S. NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION INFORMATION AND ANALYSES: 73 1994 Accident Sequence Precursor Program Results, R. J. Belles, J. W. Cletcher, D. A. Coplnger, B. W. Dolan, J. W. Minarick, and P. D. O'Reilly; ANNOUNCEMENTS: 93 American Institute of Chemical Engineers (AlChE) Spring 1997 National Meeting; 94 European Safety and Reliability Association International Conference on Safety and Reliability ESREL ’97; 95 Criticality Safety Challenges in the Next Decade; 96 21st International Symposium on the Scientific Basis for Nuclear Waste Management; 84 The Authors; 88 Letter to the Editor; 90 Indexes to Nuclear Safety, Volume 36.

05 NUCLEAR FUELS↗
DOE OSTI1996

Nuclear Safety [Vol. 37, No. 1, January-March 1996]

Nuclear Safety is a journal that covers significant issues in the field of nuclear safety. Its primary scope is safety in the design, construction, operation, and decommissioning of nuclear power reactors worldwide and the research and analysis activities that promote this goal, but it also encompasses the safety aspects of the entire nuclear fuel cycle, including fuel fabrication, spent-fuel processing and handling, and nuclear waste disposal, the handling of fissionable materials and radioisotopes, and the environmental effects of all these activities. Table of Contents for this issue follows. GENERAL SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS: 1 A Decision Support System for Maintenance Management of a Boiling-Water Reactor Power Plant, J. H. Shen, A. Ray, and S. Levine; ACCIDENT ANALYSIS: 12 On Prediction of the Ignition Potential of Uranium Metal and Hydride, M. Epstein, W. Luangdilok, M. G. Plys, and H. K. Fauske; 26 An Overview of the Primary Parameters and Methods for Determining Condensation Heat Transfer to Containment Structures, J. Green and K. Almenas; DESIGN FEATURES: 49 Modem Tornado Design of Nuclear and Other Potentially Hazardous Facilities, J. D. Stevenson and Y. Zaho; U.S. NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION INFORMATION AND ANALYSES: 73 1994 Accident Sequence Precursor Program Results, R. J. Belles, J. W. Cletcher, D. A. Copinger, B. W. Dolan, J. W. Minarick, and P. D. O'Reilly; ANNOUNCEMENTS: 93 American Institute of Chemical Engineers (AlChE) Spring 1997 National Meeting; 94 European Safety and Reliability Association International Conference on Safety and Reliability ESREL ’97; 95 Criticality Safety Challenges in the Next Decade; 96 21st International Symposium on the Scientific Basis for Nuclear Waste Management; 84 The Authors; 88 Letter to the Editor; 90 Indexes to Nuclear Safety, Volume 36.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

System risk quantification and decision making support using functional modeling and dynamic Bayesian network

Risk-informed decision-making requires a probabilistic assessment of the likelihood of success of control action, given the system status. This paper presents a systematic state transition modeling approach integrating dynamic probabilistic risk assessment with a decision-making process using a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) coupled with functional modeling. A functional model designed with multilevel flow modeling (MFM) technique was used to build a system state structure inferred by energy, mass, and information flow so that one can verify the developed model with respect to system functionality. The MFM model represents the causal relationship among the nodes, which captures the structure of process parameters and control units. Each node may have multiple possible states, and the DBN structured by the MFM model represents the time-domain transitions among the defined states. Furthermore, the MFM-DBN integrated state transition modeling is a white-box approach that allows one to draw the system's risk profile by updating the system states and supports the decisions probabilistically with physical inference. An example of a simple heating system has been used to illustrate this process, including decision-making support based on quantitative risk profile. For demonstrating its applicability to a complex system operational decision making, a case study of station blackout accident scenario leading to the seal loss of coolant accident in a nuclear power plant is presented. The proposed approach effectively provided the risk profile along time for each option so that the operators can make the best decision, which minimizes the plant risk.

42 ENGINEERING↗