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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2

Robust Load-Sharing Control of Spacecraft Formations

This paper focuses on the design of autonomous and collaborative control strategies to govern the relative distances among multiple spacecraft in formation with no ground intervention. A coordinate load-sharing control structure for formation flying and a methodology to control their dynamic models with slow time-varying and uncertain parameters are the main objectives of this work. The method is applied to a deep space formation example, where the uncertainty in spacecraft fuel masses is also considered.

multi spacecraft↗

The Role of Margin in Link Design and Optimization

Link analysis is a system engineering process in the design, development, and operation of communication systems and networks. Link models that are mathematical abstractions representing the useful signal power and the undesirable noise and attenuation effects (including weather effects if the signal path transverses through the atmosphere) that are integrated into the link budget calculation that provides the estimates of signal power and noise power at the receiver. Then the link margin is applied which attempts to counteract the fluctuations of the signal and noise power to ensure reliable data delivery from transmitter to receiver. (Link margin is dictated by the link margin policy or requirements.) A simple link budgeting approach assumes link parameters to be deterministic values typically adopted a rule-of-thumb policy of 3 dB link margin. This policy works for most S- and X-band links due to their insensitivity to weather effects. But for higher frequency links like Ka-band, Ku-band, and optical communication links, it is unclear if a 3 dB link margin would guarantee link closure. Statistical link analysis that adopted the 2-sigma or 3-sigma link margin incorporates link uncertainties in the sigma calculation. (The Deep Space Network (DSN) link margin policies are 2-sigma for downlink and 3-sigma for uplink.) The link reliability can therefore be quantified statistically even for higher frequency links. However in the current statistical link analysis approach, link reliability is only expressed as the likelihood of exceeding the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) threshold that corresponds to a given bit-error-rate (BER) or frame-error-rate (FER) requirement. The method does not provide the true BER or FER estimate of the link with margin, or the required signalto-noise ratio (SNR) that would meet the BER or FER requirement in the statistical sense. In this paper, we perform in-depth analysis on the relationship between BER/FER requirement, operating SNR, and coding performance curve, in the case when the channel coherence time of link fluctuation is comparable or larger than the time duration of a codeword. We compute the "true" SNR design point that would meet the BER/FER requirement by taking into account the fluctuation of signal power and noise power at the receiver, and the shape of the coding performance curve. This analysis yields a number of valuable insights on the design choices of coding scheme and link margin for the reliable data delivery of a communication system - space and ground. We illustrate the aforementioned analysis using a number of standard NASA error-correcting codes.

Cheung, K.↗

Spectral Correlation in MODIS Water-Leaving Reflectance Retrieval Uncertainty

Spectral remote sensing reflectance, Rrs(λ) (sr−1), is the fundamental quantity used to derive a host of bio-optical and biogeochemical properties of the water column from satellite ocean color measurements. Estimation of uncertainty in those derived geophysical products is therefore dependent on knowledge of the uncertainty in satellite-retrieved R rs . Furthermore, since the associated algorithms require R rs at multiple spectral bands, the spectral (i.e., band-to-band)error covariance in R rs is needed to accurately estimate the uncertainty in those derived properties. This study establishes a derivative-based approach for propagating instrument random noise, instrument systematic uncertainty, and forward model uncertainty into R rs as retrieved using NASA’s multiple-scattering epsilon (MSEPS) atmospheric correction algorithm, to generate pixel-level error covariance in R rs . The approach is applied to measurements from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Aqua satellite and verified using Monte Carlo (MC) analysis. We also make use of this full spectral error covariance in R rs to calculate uncertainty in phytoplankton pigment chlorophyll-a concentration (chl a , mg/m 3 ) and diffuse attenuation coefficient of downwelling irradiance at 490 nm (K d (490), m -1 ). Accounting for the error covariance in R rs generally reduces the estimated relative uncertainty in chl a by ∼1-2% (absolute value) in waters with chl a < 0.25 mg/m 3 where the color index (CI) algorithm is used. The reduction is ∼5-10% in waters with chl a > 0.35 mg/m 3 where the blue-green ratio (OCX) algorithm is used. Such reduction can be higher than 30% in some regions. For K d (490), the reduction by error covariance is generally ∼2%, but can be higher than 20% in some regions. The error covariance in R rs is further verified through forward-calculating chl a from MODIS-retrieved and in situ R rs and comparing estimated uncertainty with observed differences. An 8-day global composite of propagated uncertainty shows that the goal of 35% uncertainty in chl a can be achieved over deep ocean waters (chl a ≤ 0.1 mg/m3). While the derivative-based approach generates reasonable error covariance in R rs some assumptions should be updated as our knowledge improves. These include the inter-band error correlation in top-of-atmosphere reflectance, and uncertainties in the calibration of MODIS 869 nm band, in ancillary data, and in the in situ data used for system vicarious calibration.

Ocean color↗

Reliability Impacts in Life Support Architecture and Technology Selection

Quantitative assessments of system reliability and equivalent system mass (ESM) were made for different life support architectures based primarily on International Space Station technologies. The analysis was applied to a one-year deep-space mission. System reliability was increased by adding redundancy and spares, which added to the ESM. Results were thus obtained allowing a comparison of the ESM for each architecture at equivalent levels of reliability. Although the analysis contains numerous simplifications and uncertainties, the results suggest that achieving necessary reliabilities for deep-space missions will add substantially to the life support ESM and could influence the optimal degree of life support closure. Approaches for reducing reliability impacts were investigated and are discussed.

Lange Kevin E.↗

Temperatures in a runaway greenhouse on the evolving Venus Implications for water loss

Some aspects of the temperature structure of a runaway greenhouse on Venus are examined using one-dimensional radiative transfer techniques. It is found that there generally is a region high in the atmosphere where condensation and cloud formation can occur, while deep in the atmosphere the gas is strongly unsaturated with respect to water vapor. The necessity of including clouds introduces considerably uncertainty into the calculation of surface temperatures. Under reasonable assumptions concerning the clouds, temperatures deep in the atmosphere are high enough to produce a plastic or even molten surface, which may significantly ease the problem of explaining the loss of oxygen.

Watson, A. J.↗

Deep Space Test Bed for Radiation Studies

A key factor affecting the technical feasibility and cost of missions to Mars or the Moon is the need to protect the crew from ionizing radiation in space. Some analyses indicate that large amounts of spacecraft shielding may be necessary for crew safety. The shielding requirements are driven by the need to protect the crew from Galactic cosmic rays (GCR). Recent research activities aimed at enabling manned exploration have included shielding materials studies. A major goal of this research is to develop accurate radiation transport codes to calculate the shielding effectiveness of materials and to develop effective shielding strategies for spacecraft design. Validation of these models and calculations must be addressed in a relevant radiation environment to assure their technical readiness and accuracy. Test data obtained in the deep space radiation environment can provide definitive benchmarks and yield uncertainty estimates of the radiation transport codes. The two approaches presently used for code validation are ground based testing at particle accelerators and flight tests in high-inclination low-earth orbits provided by the shuttle, free-flyer platforms, or polar-orbiting satellites. These approaches have limitations in addressing all the radiation-shielding issues of deep space missions in both technical and practical areas. An approach based on long duration high altitude polar balloon flights provides exposure to the galactic cosmic ray composition and spectra encountered in deep space at a lower cost and with easier and more frequent access than afforded with spaceflight opportunities. This approach also results in shorter development times than spaceflight experiments, which is important for addressing changing program goals and requirements.

Adams, James H.↗

Earth's partial pressure of CO2 over the past 120 Ma; evidence from Ce anomalies in the deep (greater than 600 m) Pacific Ocean, 1

It was found that Ce serves as a chemical tracer of paleo-oceanic redox conditions. It was shown that the unoxidized and soluble Ce(3+) in modern seawater exhibits a negative anomaly relative to the other soluble REE(3+). An expression of soluble Ce(3+) in seawater that was approximately 1900X greater than the average observed in Ce in 600-5000 m Pacific seawater was derived. Since Ce(CO3)(+) and Ce(CO3)2(-) complexes greatly exceed the Ce(PO4) complexes in seawater, the formulations of using carbonate complexes were followed and it was found that the calculated Ce and observed concentrations in the deep 600-5000 m Pacific Ocean agree within the uncertainties of the thermodynamic data. As expected, the calculated Ce concentrations are a strong function of pH and found to be lesser functions of CO3(2-) activities.

Liu, Y.-G↗

CO2 Flux Estimation Errors Associated with Moist Atmospheric Processes

Vertical transport by moist sub-grid scale processes such as deep convection is a well-known source of uncertainty in CO2 source/sink inversion. However, a dynamical link between vertical transport, satellite based retrievals of column mole fractions of CO2, and source/sink inversion has not yet been established. By using the same offline transport model with meteorological fields from slightly different data assimilation systems, we examine sensitivity of frontal CO2 transport and retrieved fluxes to different parameterizations of sub-grid vertical transport. We find that frontal transport feeds off background vertical CO2 gradients, which are modulated by sub-grid vertical transport. The implication for source/sink estimation is two-fold. First, CO2 variations contained in moist poleward moving air masses are systematically different from variations in dry equatorward moving air. Moist poleward transport is hidden from orbital sensors on satellites, causing a sampling bias, which leads directly to small but systematic flux retrieval errors in northern mid-latitudes. Second, differences in the representation of moist sub-grid vertical transport in GEOS-4 and GEOS-5 meteorological fields cause differences in vertical gradients of CO2, which leads to systematic differences in moist poleward and dry equatorward CO2 transport and therefore the fraction of CO2 variations hidden in moist air from satellites. As a result, sampling biases are amplified and regional scale flux errors enhanced, most notably in Europe (0.43+/-0.35 PgC /yr). These results, cast from the perspective of moist frontal transport processes, support previous arguments that the vertical gradient of CO2 is a major source of uncertainty in source/sink inversion.

moist atmospheric processes↗

NASA Space Radiation Protection Strategies: Risk Assessment and Permissible Exposure Limits

Permissible exposure limits (PELs) for short-term and career astronaut exposures to space radiation have been set and approved by NASA with the goal of protecting astronauts against health risks associated with ionizing radiation exposure. Short term PELs are intended to prevent clinically significant deterministic health effects, including performance decrements, which could threaten astronaut health and jeopardize mission success. Career PELs are implemented to control late occurring health effects, including a 3% risk of exposure induced death (REID) from cancer, and dose limits are used to prevent cardiovascular and central nervous system diseases. For radiation protection, meeting the cancer PEL is currently the design driver for galactic cosmic ray and solar particle event shielding, mission duration, and crew certification (e.g., 1-year ISS missions). The risk of cancer development is the largest known long-term health consequence following radiation exposure, and current estimates for long-term health risks due to cardiovascular diseases are approximately 30% to 40% of the cancer risk for exposures above an estimated threshold (Deep Space one-year and Mars missions). Large uncertainties currently exist in estimating the health risks of space radiation exposure. Improved understanding through radiobiology and physics research allows increased accuracy in risk estimation and is essential for ensuring astronaut health as well as for controlling mission costs, optimization of mission operations, vehicle design, and countermeasure assessment. We will review the Space Radiation Program Element's research strategies to increase accuracy in risk models and to inform development and validation of the permissible exposure limits.

Huff, J. L.↗

Simulated Galactic Cosmic Ray and Solar Particle Event Radiation Effects on Inflatable Habitat, Composite Habitat, Space Suit and Space Hatch Cover Materials

The effect of particle radiation representative of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) and solar particle event (SPE) radiation on polymeric materials used in deep space mission environments is largely unknown. For NASA, this uncertainty represents an unquantified mission risk. To better quantify this risk, selected polymeric materials used in inflatable habitats, composite habitats, space suits and space hatch covers are irradiated at the Brookhaven National Laboratory, after which changes in relevant end-use properties are measured. The irradiated materials are lightweight candidates having critical functions such as ripstops, permeation barriers, micrometeoroids and orbital debris (MMOD) shield layers and restraint layers.The effect of several types of particle radiation are evaluated. To evaluate GCR effects, high-energy (1 GeV) protons and iron nucleons are used. To evaluate SPE effects, intermediate energy (ca. 20 to 40 MeV) protons are used. In addition, two mission scenarios are evaluated: a Mars mission cycle (space suit materials) and a worst-case 50 year deep space mission cycle (all materials). Lastly, a common polymer (high density polyethylene (HDPE)) is subjected to accelerated aging and radiation exposure to determine if a combined physical aging/radiation effect exists.The level of radiation induced property change observed in this study after exposure of polymers to kGy levels of intermediate and high energy ions is often significant and is quantitatively comparable to the level of change reported for similar materials exposed to MGy levels of low energy protons, electrons and gamma-radiation. This suggests that intermediate and high energy ions encountered in space may cause more damage than low energy forms of radiation due to displacement and linear energy transfer (LET) effects. For these reasons, it is recommended that final approval for mission use be made by the appropriate NASA material and structural review boards to ensure radiation induced changes in candidate materials do not interfere with their engineering function in the intended mission application. Since the materials tested in this report received doses exceeding actual mission doses, the results are considered conservative as a first approximation. However, caution must be exercised when evaluating radiation effects in the absence of other secondary factors know to contribute to degradation. In the addition to radiation type and energy, the results presented in this study show that molecular composition, orientation, stress and physical aging can also contribute to or influence degradation. Other factors such as polymer formulation, secondary radiation effects, stress, exposure to elevated temperature, thermal cycling and exposure to ozone were not investigated here, but must be considered when performing a comprehensive evaluation of a polymeric materials suitability for service in a space radiation environment. Only when the total sum of these factors operating in concert with radiation are accounted for, can accurate assessments of a material's suitability be made.

Jess M. Waller↗

From Exploration Flight Test-1 to Artemis II--A NASA Langley's Orion Aerosciences Overview

The Orion Aerosciences program at NASA Langley has played a central role in advancing the aerodynamic and aeroheating prediction capabilities required for the Orion crew vehicle’s return from deep space. This presentation provides a technical overview of aerosciences contributions spanning Exploration Flight Test-1 (EFT-1), Artemis I, and the ongoing post-flight analysis of Artemis II. EFT-1 provided the first high-energy entry dataset for Orion, enabling critical validation of aerodynamic force and moment predictions, static and dynamic stability characteristics, and aeroheating environments at relevant flight Mach and Reynolds numbers. Flight-derived pressure data were used to refine the Flush Air Data System (FADS) methodology for atmospheric density reconstruction and to improve Best Estimated Trajectory (BET) solutions. The EFT-1 data also offered key insights into heat shield performance, including char layer recession, in-depth thermal response, and material retention behavior under flight conditions, informing updates to both thermal response models and uncertainty quantification practices. Building on EFT-1, Artemis I extended the database to true lunar-return conditions. Observations of heat shield performance, including localized char loss, bondline response, and recession variability, provided an unprecedented opportunity to reassess Thermal Protection System (TPS) and aeroheating modeling assumptions. Aerodynamic reconstruction efforts incorporated improved FADS calibration, enhanced atmospheric modeling, and refined force and moment databases to reduce trajectory and load uncertainties. Aeroheating comparisons between pre-flight predictions and flight data enabled targeted model updates, particularly in transitional flow environments and wake heating regions. For Artemis II, these lessons were systematically incorporated into the pre-flight prediction process. Updates included refined aerodynamic databases anchored to flight-validated corrections, improved density estimation and BET methodologies using enhanced database interpolation algorithm and FADS modeling, and revised aeroheating design environments informed by Artemis I material response observations. By the time of the workshop, Artemis II post-flight analysis will be underway, and preliminary findings will be presented where available, including early comparisons of aerodynamic reconstruction, atmospheric density estimation, and thermal protection system performance relative to updated predictions. Collectively, this body of work is a testament to the dedicated and multidisciplinary team whose sustained efforts have contributed to the program’s success and to the progressive maturation of Orion aerosciences modeling through numerical modeling, ground and flight data assimilation. The integrated advancement of aerodynamics, trajectory reconstruction, FADS-based density estimation, and aeroheating analysis has reduced predictive uncertainty and strengthened confidence for future crewed lunar and deep-space missions.

Orion↗

Autonomous Control for Arbitrary Thruster Configurations and Mass Properties in Special Euclidean Group SE(3)

Most current methods for determining maneuvers and thrust firing sequences depend on explicit and predetermined commands generated by a combination of on-board systems and ground-based human-in-the-loop methods. For spacecraft and space structures with changing mass properties and thruster configurations, such as the Deep Space Gateway as it changes configurations throughout its lifetime, determining these commands can be time-consuming and computationally intensive. However, recent work within the Lie GroupSE (3) has offered ways of autonomously determining the location, power, precision, and capabilities of thrusters in any arbitrary position. Furthermore, a method for determining thruster firing sequences based on an arbitrary control input (both translational and rotational in a coupled, 6-element vector) and arbitrary thruster configurations has also recently been developed. When combining these methods, any spacecraft with any mass properties and thruster configurations can be understood in terms of controllability limits and thruster firing sequences can be generated quickly and with low computational load, thus extending the autonomous capabilities of deep space missions. In this work, this method is presented and explored in terms of computational load, robustness in the presence of uncertainty, and overall performance. The capabilities of this method are also examined in the case of the Deep Space Gateway both in fully controllable configurations and uncontrollable configurations.

Control↗

Uncertainties in estimates of the risks of late effects from space radiation

Methods used to project risks in low-Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Using the linear-additivity model for radiation risks, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain an estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including a deep space outpost and Mars missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative metrics, e.g., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well-defined confidence limits. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of COSPAR.

Non-NASA Center↗

Reliability Impacts in Life Support Architecture and Technology Selection

Equivalent System Mass (ESM) and reliability estimates were performed for different life support architectures based primarily on International Space Station (ISS) technologies. The analysis was applied to a hypothetical 1-year deep-space mission. High-level fault trees were initially developed relating loss of life support functionality to the Loss of Crew (LOC) top event. System reliability was then expressed as the complement (nonoccurrence) this event and was increased through the addition of redundancy and spares, which added to the ESM. The reliability analysis assumed constant failure rates and used current projected values of the Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF) from an ISS database where available. Results were obtained showing the dependence of ESM on system reliability for each architecture. Although the analysis employed numerous simplifications and many of the input parameters are considered to have high uncertainty, the results strongly suggest that achieving necessary reliabilities for deep-space missions will add substantially to the life support system mass. As a point of reference, the reliability for a single-string architecture using the most regenerative combination of ISS technologies without unscheduled replacement spares was estimated to be less than 1%. The results also demonstrate how adding technologies in a serial manner to increase system closure forces the reliability of other life support technologies to increase in order to meet the system reliability requirement. This increase in reliability results in increased mass for multiple technologies through the need for additional spares. Alternative parallel architecture approaches and approaches with the potential to do more with less are discussed. The tall poles in life support ESM are also reexamined in light of estimated reliability impacts.

Lange, Kevin E.↗

Space Radiation Cancer Risks

Space radiation presents major challenges to astronauts on the International Space Station and for future missions to the Earth s moon or Mars. Methods used to project risks on Earth need to be modified because of the large uncertainties in projecting cancer risks from space radiation, and thus impact safety factors. We describe NASA s unique approach to radiation safety that applies uncertainty based criteria within the occupational health program for astronauts: The two terrestrial criteria of a point estimate of maximum acceptable level of risk and application of the principle of As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) are supplemented by a third requirement that protects against risk projection uncertainties using the upper 95% confidence level (CL) in the radiation cancer projection model. NASA s acceptable level of risk for ISS and their new lunar program have been set at the point-estimate of a 3-percent risk of exposure induced death (REID). Tissue-averaged organ dose-equivalents are combined with age at exposure and gender-dependent risk coefficients to project the cumulative occupational radiation risks incurred by astronauts. The 95% CL criteria in practice is a stronger criterion than ALARA, but not an absolute cut-off as is applied to a point projection of a 3% REID. We describe the most recent astronaut dose limits, and present a historical review of astronaut organ doses estimates from the Mercury through the current ISS program, and future projections for lunar and Mars missions. NASA s 95% CL criteria is linked to a vibrant ground based radiobiology program investigating the radiobiology of high-energy protons and heavy ions. The near-term goal of research is new knowledge leading to the reduction of uncertainties in projection models. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. The current model for projecting space radiation cancer risk relies on the three assumptions of linearity, additivity, and scaling along with the use of population averages. We describe uncertainty estimates for this model, and new experimental data that sheds light on the accuracy of the underlying assumptions. These methods make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative metrics, i.e., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well defined confidence limits. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including lunar station, deep space outpost, and a Mars mission. Factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties and application of this approach to assess candidate mitigation approaches are described.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗

Uncertainties in Estimates of the Risks of Late Effects from Space Radiation

The health risks faced by astronauts from space radiation include cancer, cataracts, hereditary effects, and non-cancer morbidity and mortality risks related to the diseases of the old age. Methods used to project risks in low-Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Within the linear-additivity model, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain a Maximum Likelihood estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including ISS, lunar station, deep space outpost, and Mar's missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time, and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative objective's, i.e., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well defined confidence limits.

Cucinotta, F. A.↗

Trajectory Dispersed Vehicle Process for Space Launch System

The Space Launch System (SLS) vehicle is part of NASA's deep space exploration plans that includes manned missions to Mars. Manufacturing uncertainties in design parameters are key considerations throughout SLS development as they have significant effects on focus parameters such as lift-off-thrust-to-weight, vehicle payload, maximum dynamic pressure, and compression loads. This presentation discusses how the SLS program captures these uncertainties by utilizing a 3 degree of freedom (DOF) process called Trajectory Dispersed (TD) analysis. This analysis biases nominal trajectories to identify extremes in the design parameters for various potential SLS configurations and missions. This process utilizes a Design of Experiments (DOE) and response surface methodologies (RSM) to statistically sample uncertainties, and develop resulting vehicles using a Maximum Likelihood Estimate (MLE) process for targeting uncertainties bias. These vehicles represent various missions and configurations which are used as key inputs into a variety of analyses in the SLS design process, including 6 DOF dispersions, separation clearances, and engine out failure studies.

Statham, Tamara↗

Model Spread in Tropical Low Cloud Feedback Tied to Overturning Circulation Response to Warming

Among models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), here we show that the magnitude of the tropical low cloud feedback, which contributes considerably to uncertainty in estimates of climate sensitivity, is intimately linked to tropical deep convection and its effects on the tropical atmospheric overturning circulation. First, a reduction in tropical ascent area and an increased frequency of heavy precipitation result in high cloud reduction and upper-tropospheric drying, which increases longwave cooling and reduces subsidence weakening, favoring low cloud reduction (Radiation-Subsidence Pathway). Second, increased longwave cooling decreases tropospheric stability, which also reduces subsidence weakening and low cloudiness (Stability-Subsidence Pathway). In summary, greater high cloud reduction and upper-tropospheric drying (negative longwave feedback) lead to a more positive cloud feedback among CMIP6 models by contributing to a greater reduction in low cloudiness (positive shortwave feedback). Varying strengths of the two pathways contribute considerably to the intermodel spread in climate sensitivity.

Atmospheric dynamics↗