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At least 37 records · Page 2

Estimation of Model Error Variances During Data Assimilation

Data assimilation is all about understanding the error characteristics of the data and models that are used in the assimilation process. Reliable error estimates are needed to implement observational quality control, bias correction of observations and model fields, and intelligent data selection. Meaningful covariance specifications are obviously required for the analysis as well, since the impact of any single observation strongly depends on the assumed structure of the background errors. Operational atmospheric data assimilation systems still rely primarily on climatological background error covariances. To obtain error estimates that reflect both the character of the flow and the current state of the observing system, it is necessary to solve three problems: (1) how to account for the short-term evolution of errors in the initial conditions; (2) how to estimate the additional component of error caused by model defects; and (3) how to compute the error reduction in the analysis due to observational information. Various approaches are now available that provide approximate solutions to the first and third of these problems. However, the useful accuracy of these solutions very much depends on the size and character of the model errors and the ability to account for them. Model errors represent the real-world forcing of the error evolution in a data assimilation system. Clearly, meaningful model error estimates and/or statistics must be based on information external to the model itself. The most obvious information source is observational, and since the volume of available geophysical data is growing rapidly, there is some hope that a purely statistical approach to model error estimation can be viable. This requires that the observation errors themselves are well understood and quantifiable. We will discuss some of these challenges and present a new sequential scheme for estimating model error variances from observations in the context of an atmospheric data assimilation system.

Dee, Dick↗

Composition stability limits for the rocksalt-structure phase /Pb1-y Sny/1-xTex from lattice parameter measurements.

The parameter values measured are in agreement with those reported by Mazelsky and Lubell (1963) and data of Bis and Dixon (1969). The measurements for SnTe introduce a large amount of data into a defect model analysis that shows that the ratio of the number of holes per tin-vacancy acceptor to the 77 K Hall factor is independent of the apparent hole concentration. The measurements reveal some interesting problems in handling the Sn-rich alloys in fine powder form due to the uptake of oxygen.

Brebrick, R. F.↗

Defect chemistry and characterization of (Hg, Cd)Te

Single crystal samples of phosphorus doped Hg sub 0.8 Cd sub 0.2 Te were anneald at temperatures varying from 450 C to 600 C in various Hg atmospheres. The samples were quenched to room temperature from the annealing temperatures. Hall effect and mobility measurements were performed at 77 K on all these samples. The results indicate the crystals to be p type for a total phosphorus concentration of 10 to the 19th power/cu cm in all the samples. The hole concentration at 77 K increases with increasing Hg pressures at 450 C and 500 C contrary to the observation in undoped crystals. Also, at low Hg pressures the concentration of holes in the phosphorus doped crystals is lower than in the undoped crystals. The hole concentration in all the samples is lower than the intrinsic carrier concentration at the annealing temperatures. The hole mobility in the doped crystals is similar to that in the undoped crystals. A defect model according to which phosphorus behaves as a single acceptor interstitially, occupying Te lattice sites while it acts as a single donor occupying Hg lattice sites was established. Equilibrum constants established for the incorporation of all the phosphorus species explain the experimental results

Vydyanath, H. R.↗

Transport Equation Based Wall Distance Computations Aimed at Flows With Time-Dependent Geometry

Eikonal, Hamilton-Jacobi and Poisson equations can be used for economical nearest wall distance computation and modification. Economical computations may be especially useful for aeroelastic and adaptive grid problems for which the grid deforms, and the nearest wall distance needs to be repeatedly computed. Modifications are directed at remedying turbulence model defects. For complex grid structures, implementation of the Eikonal and Hamilton-Jacobi approaches is not straightforward. This prohibits their use in industrial CFD solvers. However, both the Eikonal and Hamilton-Jacobi equations can be written in advection and advection-diffusion forms, respectively. These, like the Poisson s Laplacian, are commonly occurring industrial CFD solver elements. Use of the NASA CFL3D code to solve the Eikonal and Hamilton-Jacobi equations in advective-based forms is explored. The advection-based distance equations are found to have robust convergence. Geometries studied include single and two element airfoils, wing body and double delta configurations along with a complex electronics system. It is shown that for Eikonal accuracy, upwind metric differences are required. The Poisson approach is found effective and, since it does not require offset metric evaluations, easiest to implement. The sensitivity of flow solutions to wall distance assumptions is explored. Generally, results are not greatly affected by wall distance traits.

Tucker, Paul G.↗

Transport Equation Based Wall Distance Computations Aimed at Flows With Time-Dependent Geometry

Eikonal, Hamilton-Jacobi and Poisson equations can be used for economical nearest wall distance computation and modification. Economical computations may be especially useful for aeroelastic and adaptive grid problems for which the grid deforms, and the nearest wall distance needs to be repeatedly computed. Modifications are directed at remedying turbulence model defects. For complex grid structures, implementation of the Eikonal and Hamilton-Jacobi approaches is not straightforward. This prohibits their use in industrial CFD solvers. However, both the Eikonal and Hamilton-Jacobi equations can be written in advection and advection-diffusion forms, respectively. These, like the Poisson's Laplacian, are commonly occurring industrial CFD solver elements. Use of the NASA CFL3D code to solve the Eikonal and Hamilton-Jacobi equations in advective-based forms is explored. The advection-based distance equations are found to have robust convergence. Geometries studied include single and two element airfoils, wing body and double delta configurations along with a complex electronics system. It is shown that for Eikonal accuracy, upwind metric differences are required. The Poisson approach is found effective and, since it does not require offset metric evaluations, easiest to implement. The sensitivity of flow solutions to wall distance assumptions is explored. Generally, results are not greatly affected by wall distance traits.

Tucker, Paul G.↗

Cosmological structure formation from soft topological defects

Some models have extremely low-mass pseudo-Goldstone bosons that can lead to vacuum phase transitions at late times, after the decoupling of the microwave background.. This can generate structure formation at redshifts z greater than or approx 10 on mass scales as large as M approx 10 to the 18th solar masses. Such low energy transitions can lead to large but phenomenologically acceptable density inhomogeneities in soft topological defects (e.g., domain walls) with minimal variations in the microwave anisotropy, as small as delta Y/T less than or approx 10 to the minus 6 power. This mechanism is independent of the existence of hot, cold, or baryonic dark matter. It is a novel alternative to both cosmic string and to inflationary quantum fluctuations as the origin of structure in the Universe.

Hill, Christopher T.↗

Staffing Strategies for Maintenance of Critical Software Systems at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory

The Mission Design and Navigation Software Group at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) maintains mission critical software systems. We have good empirical data and models for maintenance demand—when defects will occur, how many and how severe they will be, and how much effort is needed to address them. However, determining the level of staffing needed to address maintenance issues is an ongoing challenge and is often done ad-hoc. There are two common strategies are (1) reactive – add/remove staff as needed to respond to maintenance issues, and (2) capacitive – retain a given staff size to address issues as they occur, proactively address issues and prevent defects.

software maintenance↗

Two-fluid models of turbulence

The defects of turbulence models are summarized and the importance of so-called nongradient diffusion in turbulent fluxes is discussed. The mathematical theory of the flow of two interpenetrating continua is reviewed, and the mathematical formulation of the two fluid model is outlined. Results from plane wake, axisymmetric jet, and combustion studies are shown.

Spalding, D. B.↗

Porosity Prediction and Detection During Composite Cure Using Simulation and Ultrasonic In-Situ Inspection Inside and Autoclave

Composite materials offer unique benefits in aerospace applications such as increased strength-to-weight ratio and improved fatigue properties. They are increasingly being used in major commercial aircraft programs. However, current processing methods can lead to defects in composite parts, which are currently identified using post-manufacturing inspection methods. A cure defects process model has been developed to predict the formation of manufacturing defects (e.g., porosity and fiber waviness) in composites based on the cure parameters and part geometry. However, a capability to directly validate porosity during cure did not exist. Validation methods included comparing resin pressure measured during cure with predictions by the process model and inspection/microscopy after cure. This study developed a high-temperature ultrasonic inspection system to detect porosity defects in composites during autoclave cure and experimentally verify the predictions of the model. The system operated inside an autoclave within an enclosure cooled by intermittent liquid nitrogen(LN2) injections. A high-temperature 2.25 MHz ultrasonic transducer was utilized to transmit ultrasonic waves through the tool plate and into the composite material and to measure the amplitude and time of flight of the reflected waves with a 1 mm × 1 mm resolution. Porosity was observed via the ultrasonic reflections, which experienced increased attenuation in regions of high porosity. Distinct regions of increased porosity were present due to uneven pressure across the panel, which was driven by an intentional misfit between the flat caul plate and the tapered composite panel with ply drops. These observations matched the predictions of the model using the inputs from the experiment (e.g., part material and geometry, cure cycle) and were validated by post-cure ultrasonic inspection and micrographs. The in-situ inspection system was able to successfully provide defect detection and localization and can be applied to future manufacturing of composite structure for aerospace applications.

Porosity↗

Oxygen Tracer Diffusion in LA(z-x) SR(X) CUO(4-y) Single Crystals

The tracer diffusion of O-18 in La(2-x)Sr(x)CuO(4-y) single crystals (x = 0 to 0.12) has been measured from 400 to 700 C in 1 atm of oxygen using SIMS analysis. Evidence for diffusion by a vacancy mechanism was found at low strontium contents. Oxygen diffusivities for x greater than or = 0.07 were depressed by several orders of magnitude below the diffusivity for undoped La2CuO(4+/-y). The observed effects of strontium doping on oxygen diffusivity are discussed in terms of defect chemical models. The decreasing oxygen diffusivity with increasing strontium was attributed to the ordering of oxygen vacancies at large defect concentrations. A diffusion anisotropy D(sub ab)/D(sub c) of nearly 600 was also found at 500 C.

OXYGEN DIFFUSIVITY↗

Circuit analysis method for thin-film solar cell modules

The design of a thin-film solar cell module is dependent on the probability of occurrence of pinhole shunt defects. Using known or assumed defect density data, dichotomous population statistics can be used to calculate the number of defects expected in a module. Probability theory is then used to assign the defective cells to individual strings in a selected series-parallel circuit design. Iterative numerical calculation is used to calcuate I-V curves using cell test values or assumed defective cell values as inputs. Good and shunted cell I-V curves are added to determine the module output power and I-V curve. Different levels of shunt resistance can be selected to model different defect levels.

Burger, D. R.↗

The observation of damage regions produced by neutron irradiation in lithium-doped silicon solar cells.

Study regions of lattice disorder produced in lithium-doped float-zone melted n/p-type silicon solar cells by irradiation with monoenergetic neutrons at doses between 10 to the 10th and 10 to the 13th per cu cm. The defect regions were revealed by chemically etching the surface of the solar cells and by observing carbon replicas in an electron microscope. It was found that the defect density increased with increasing irradiation dose and increased lithium content, whereas the average defect diameter was found to decrease. From thermal annealing experiments it was found that in the lithium-doped material the defect structure was stable at temperatures between 300 and 1200 K. This was found to be in contrast to the undoped material where at the lowest doses considerable annealing was observed to occur. These results are discussed in terms of the theoretical predictions and models of defect clusters proposed by Gossick (1959) and Crawford and Cleland (1959).

Ghosh, S.↗

Defect measurement and analysis of JPL ground software: a case study

Ground software systems at JPL must meet high assurance standards while remaining on schedule due to relatively immovable launch dates for spacecraft that will be controlled by such systems. Toward this end, the Software Quality Improvement (SQI) project's Measurement and Benchmarking (M&B) team is collecting and analyzing defect data of JPL ground system software projects to build software defect prediction models. The aim of these models is to improve predictability with regard to software quality activities. Predictive models will quantitatively define typical trends for JPL ground systems as well as Critical Discriminators (CDs) to provide explanations for atypical deviations from the norm at JPL. CDs are software characteristics that can be estimated or foreseen early in a software project's planning. Thus, these CDs will assist in planning for the predicted degree to which software quality activities for a project are likely to deviation from the normal JPL ground system based on pasted experience across the lab.

defects↗

Experience with Free Bodies

Some of the problems that confront an analyst in free body modeling, to satisfy rigid body conditions are discussed and with some remedies for these problems are presented. The problems of detecting these culprits at various levels within the analysis are examined. A new method within NASTRAN for checking the model for defects very early in the analysis without requiring the analyst to bear the expense of an eigenvalue analysis before discovering these defects is outlined.

Butler, T. G.↗

On the freestream matching condition for stagnation point turbulent flows

The problem of plane stagnation point flow with freestream turbulence is examined from a basic theoretical standpoint. It is argued that the singularity which arises from the standard kappa-epsilon model is not due to a defect in the model but results from the use of an inconsistent freestream boundary condition. The inconsistency lies in the implementation of a production equals dissipation equilibrium hypothesis in conjunction with a freestream mean velocity field that corresponds to homogeneous plane strain - a turbulent flow which does not reach such a simple equilibrium. Consequently, the adjustment that has been made in the constants of the epsilon-transport equation to eliminate this singularity is not self-consistent since it is tantamount to artificially imposing an equilibrium structure on a turbulent flow which is known not to have one.

Speziale, Charles G.↗

On the freestream matching condition for stagnation point turbulent flows

The problem of plane stagnation point flow with freestream turbulence is examined from a basic theoretical standpoint. It is argued that the singularity which arises from the standard kappa-epsilon model is not due to a defect in the model but results from the use of an inconsistent freestream boundary condition. The inconsistency lies in the implementation of a production equals dissipation equilibrium hypothesis in conjunction with a freestream mean velocity field that corresponds to homogeneous plane strain - a turbulent flow which does not reach such a simple equilibrium. Consequently, the adjustment that has been made in the constants of the epsilon-transport equation to eliminate this singularity is not self-consistent since it is tantamount to artificially imposing an equilibrium structure on a turbulent flow which is known not to have one.

Speziale, C. G.↗