Building flexibility revenue in modeled future bulk power systems with varying levels of renewable energy
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32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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End-Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock: Practical Guidance on Accessing and Using the Data
End-use load profiles (EULP), which quantify how and when energy is used, are critically important to utilities, public utility commissions, state energy offices, and other stakeholders. Applications of EULPs focus on understanding how efficiency, demand response, and other distributed energy resources are valued and used in R&D prioritization, utility resource and distribution system planning, and state and local energy planning and regulations. Consequently, high-quality EULPs are critical for widespread adoption of electrification, demand flexibility, and grid-interactive efficient buildings. For example, EULPs can be used to forecast energy savings in buildings or to identify energy using activities that can be shifted to different times of the day.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Advanced Load Forecasting
This presentation presents information about electric utility load forecasting in the U.S. It provides an overview of load forecasting and describes the current state of the industry. Current load forecasting challenges, opportunities, and interests are presented, including feedback from a 2024 workshop on Integrated Distribution System Planning. The presentation also describes a variety of NREL tools and capabilities that support utility load forecasting efforts. This was presented as part of NREL's Utility Planning Resources for Energy Transition Webinar Series.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Estimating the Drivers of the Cost of Saved Electricity in Utility Customer-Funded Energy Efficiency Programs
Energy efficiency programs funded by utility customers provide an electricity resource in most U.S. states, but their scale and cost of saving electricity varies significantly by state. In this paper, we explore the drivers of the cost of saved electricity in these programs with an econometric model and nearly a decade of data reported by efficiency program administrators. We found strong evidence for economies of scale and weak evidence for diseconomies of scale, which suggests that states with low levels of efficiency savings relative to retail sales can increase the size of their efficiency programs without large increases to the cost of saved electricity. We discuss examples of energy efficiency forecasting and potential modeling in light our econometric analysis and identify methodological improvements relevant to utilities and grid operators. This paper provides insights into the economics of customer-funded efficiency programs that will support regulators, utilities, and policymakers to utilize energy efficiency as a resource.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Industrial Load Flexibility, the U.S. Power Grid and Ammonia
A variable renewable power grid is a new technological regime that involves real time harvesting and low-cost availability of energy resources coupled with storage to meet additional needs. Decarbonization through electrification of end uses formerly met by combustion processes will be a concurrent trend. Taken together, these two changes may make flexibility on the demand side more valuable to the grid and to industrial users. Industry accounted for 26% of US power demand in 2021. Traditionally, industrial processes for producing ammonia and other basic materials have been optimized for a system based on fossil resources, where energy can be called upon according to needs. Large capital expenditures as well as safety considerations have favored plants running at steady state at close to their maximum capacity. It is possible, however, that the renewable energy transition will offer opportunities to sectors that can operate in a more flexible manner. Innovations that make use of flexibility to enhance their business model to move forward, individuals and groups active in their development, use and regulation, together with institutions and infrastructures, can be considered as a technological innovation system (TIS). Beyond economic and technical factors on their own, the TIS is an important analysis framework for studying the development and diffusion of technologies. This work attempts to map the TIS of flexible industrial loads and their interaction with electric power in the US, with a particular focus on ammonia as a case study. We have conducted interviews with stakeholders involved in ammonia projects, working in system operators, trade groups, regulators and utilities. We assess to what extent a technological innovation system is functioning and document characteristics that allow industries to operate flexibly.
ammonia↗
The global policy landscape of ISO 50001 energy management systems
While many options exist to improve industrial demand-side energy efficiency, energy management systems (EnMSs)—particularly those aligned with ISO 50001—are proven to drive continuous and meaningful energy performance improvements. Governments leverage these EnMSs in their policies to advance national objectives including enhancing industrial competitiveness and achieving environmental goals. Existing research has focused on the impact of EnMSs at the company level, while comprehensive work on EnMSs in a global policy context is lacking. We seek to close this gap by investigating the extent to which current national policies incorporate the utilization of EnMSs, particularly the ISO 50001 standard. Our paper employs a hybrid approach, combining a literature review and expert interviews across 28 governments representing > 86% of global primary energy consumption. We dissect policy mechanisms, governance levels, underlying motivations, and trends in present EnMS policies. We find that > 96% of the investigated countries include EnMSs within their policy scope; 90% of policies including EnMSs utilize the ISO 50001 standard in some capacity. Primary policy motivations include decarbonization, energy savings for industrial competitiveness, and energy system resilience. We highlight that in the EnMS context, policy mixes—combining economic incentives, regulatory instruments, and information-based approaches—are more effective than standalone measures. Our work provides a novel global overview of governmental EnMS policies, moving beyond whether EnMS should be adopted to focus on how they can be implemented most effectively.
Moreno, Francisco Luis↗
Assessing the value of electric vehicle managed charging: a review of methodologies and results
Electric vehicle managed charging can benefit all consumers by supporting grid planning, operation, and reliability – especially complementing high-renewable systems.
Anwar, Muhammad Bashar↗
Aligning Electric Vehicle Customer Charging with Grid Needs
This talk to the National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners (NARUC) focuses on "Aligning Electric Vehicle Customer Charging with Grid Needs" to highlight the opportunities associated with managed electric vehicle charging and its value for consumers and the power system. Electric vehicles (EVs) are experiencing a rapid rise in popularity and adoption, and growing EV adoption offers an opportunity to increase electricity demand. With expected widespread EV adoption, supporting charging will require investments in generation, transmission, and distribution systems. Uncoordinated charging of EVs will lead to increased system peak load, possibly exceeding the maximum power that can be supported by distribution systems and generally increasing power system stress. However, vehicles are underutilized assets parked ~96% of the time: managed EV charging can satisfy mobility needs while also supporting the grid. EVs are not a burden for the grid, but a resource: The demand-side flexibility provided by managed EV charging offers significant potential benefits for the grid over multiple timescales and applications., especially for high-renewable systems. Managed charging can support power system planning and operations during normal and extreme conditions, benefitting EV owners and other electricity consumers. Managed charging is shown to consistently provide hundreds of dollars in cost savings per EV each year.
ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
CityLearn v2: energy-flexible, resilient, occupant-centric, and carbon-aware management of grid-interactive communities
As more distributed energy resources become part of the demand-side infrastructure, quantifying their energy flexibility on a community scale is crucial. CityLearn v1 provided an environment for benchmarking control algorithms. However, there is no standardized environment utilizing realistic building-stock datasets for distributed energy resource control benchmarking without co-simulation or third-party frameworks. CityLearn v2 extends CityLearn v1 by providing a stand-alone simulation environment that leverages the End-Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock dataset to create grid-interactive communities for resilient, multi-agent, and objective control of distributed energy resources with dynamic occupant feedback. While the v1 environment used pre-simulated building thermal loads, the v2 environment uses data-driven thermal dynamics and eliminates the need for co-simulation with building energy performance software. This work details the v2 environment and provides application examples that use reinforcement learning control to manage battery energy storage system, vehicle-to-grid control, and thermal comfort during heat pump power modulation.
Nweye, Kingsley↗
Managing Increased Electric Vehicle Shares on Decarbonized Bulk Power Systems
Transportation electrification and power sector decarbonization - the convergence of these two trends present a complex planning problem requiring realistic, region-specific modeling and analysis to ensure that both can happen rapidly and cost effectively. This project, funded through the U.S. Department of Energy's Vehicle Technologies Office, models the evolution of the U.S. bulk power system (through 2050) in response to large-scale EV charging across all on-road vehicle segments. We will assess the opportunity and value of demand-side flexibility (i.e., "smart" charging) for reducing energy costs, increasing renewable generation shares, and managing future EV loads on the bulk power system. Overall, this study aims to provide an improved understanding of least-cost solutions for managing EV load growth on the grid and will make high-resolution EV load data sets publicly available for further analysis.
ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗
Uncertainty quantification of a physics-informed model based on sparse identification of a Thermal Energy Distribution System
Integrated energy systems (IES)s are crucial for enhancing the economy and efficiency of power generation sources (e.g., nuclear energy) necessary to unleash American energy dominance. These systems can be integrated with thermal energy storage (TES) and intermittent renewable energies to optimize overall energy use, peak-load regulation, and demand-side responses. However, the stabilization of energy generation, transport, and utilization introduces operational complexities that exceed the challenges of managing each sub-component individually. Currently, though IESs rely on human operators for efficiency and stability, reducing human error risk and enhancing performance through automation is highly desirable. Recent advances at Idaho National Laboratory have demonstrated successful control of the Thermal Energy Distributed System (TEDS). However, the automatic control system depends on a deterministic Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics with Control (SINDyC) model, which are trained based on simulation data from physics-based simulations. Because of uncertainties in physics-based simulation, SINDyC model results in large discrepancies against experimental data and cannot be reliably used in automatic control. In this paper, we present an innovative approach to address these discrepancies by quantifying uncertainties and developing a more robust model. We first generated trajectories by using first-principles physics codes to encapsulate the experiment. Next, we trained thousands of models by randomly sampling these trajectories. We then collapsed all those models into one probabilistic SINDyC by fitting a multivariate Gaussian distribution onto the resulting coefficient’s distribution. Despite its simplicity, our approach successfully produced 95% confidence intervals that captured the experimental trajectories. It even did so with a higher probability and better U-pooling score across six of the seven relevant quantities of interest (QoIs), as compared to other classical approaches. In conclusion, ongoing research is focusing on generating new experimental trajectories to validate this approach, and on employing Bayesian calibration to refine parametric uncertainties and guide future model development efforts.
22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
An open control sequence specification to scale building demand flexibility via analytics software
For over two decades, researchers and practitioners have showcased the ability of large commercial buildings to provide grid services by shedding or shifting load. Various utility demand response (DR) and virtual power plant (VPP) programs throughout the United States are presently utilizing these demand-side resources. However, growth of these programs have been limited, in part due to the high cost necessary to integrate the DR control strategies into the building automation system (BAS). Implementing these strategies involves adjusting control sequences, necessitating dozens of hours of customized programming per building, limiting their adoption to large organizations and progressive owners. Recent efforts by researchers and industry have demonstrated the capability of energy management and information systems (EMIS), originally designed for fault detection and diagnostics, to interface with existing BAS and perform supervisory control to optimize building operations. While these approaches are quickly being adopted by industry, demand flexibility (DF) control strategies remain limited in product offerings. One of the challenges is the lack of documented best-practice DF sequences, despite the rich literature on field implementations. This paper develops a new open-specification for a zone-based temperature adjustment shed strategy for commercial building HVAC systems, describing the specification’s implementation in two EMIS tools in both experimental and field settings. Both implementations successfully reduced electric load by at least 40% on average during the called event, while maintaining temperature limits. This study’s detailed process from specification to deployment shows the potential for scalability as well as highlights challenges related to integration with heterogeneous BAS products.
Granderson, Jessica↗
Spokane Eco-District Campus Performance Under Alternative Electricity Rates: Benefits for virtual power plant participants and suppliers
Here, the respective benefits for virtual power plant participants and suppliers are revealed and compared under alternative electricity rate structures, including conventional large commercial electricity rates, large commercial electricity rates with special rates for demand-side generation, and dynamic hourly transactive prices. These three scenarios were explored using the capabilities of the Eco-District campus, a virtual power plant in Spokane, Washington, that is supplied electricity by Avista Utilities. The Eco-District Campus was modeled to host solar power generation, battery energy storage, and thermal energy resources that must be coordinated with building heating and cooling needs. First, the electricity supplier’s costs for energy, infrastructure, and energy losses were modeled. Then, the virtual power plant’s performance was modeled while presuming that its manager would minimize its costs under its electricity rate structure. The demand charges of conventional commercial electricity rates managed monthly peak, as would be expected, but hourly dynamic transactive pricing resulted in a striking alignment between the costs incurred by the supplier and the virtual power plant’s energy costs.
Electricity rates↗
Facets of hydro power and future trends in a Nordic Context
Hydropower technologies bolster high penetration of variable renewable energies (VREs) in the net zero emissions scenarios. Nevertheless, there are various challenges to meeting the ambitious goal, such as stability, reliability, resiliency, security, lack of reactive power, voltage support and inertia, large-scale storage deployment and coordination, interconnectedness, demand-side response, higher thermal cycles with increased start/stops, and inadequate Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for system-wise VRE integration and profitability. This survey conducts a bottom-up analysis to unveil the opportunities to utilize hydropower facilities and disentangle the nested problem for intertwining design features, control algorithms, operation, optimization approaches, incentives, services, and market mechanisms using a three-pillar framework perspective: grid owners, power producers, and machine designers. The survey identified emerging trends in real-time and capacity markets, flexible power systems, and enhanced grid capabilities, including advanced voltage support and updated grid codes. These developments present significant opportunities for hydropower, such as achieving super-flexibility through hybridization, expanded reactive power capabilities, and advanced operational modes like a synchronous condenser and power adequator functionalities. These opportunities require novel design philosophies — including new winding, stator, and rotor configurations, optimized ventilation, and active cooling systems — to enhance performance under stressed grid and climate conditions. Finally, integrating climate and energy models for multi-basin optimization with finer spatial and temporal granularity enhances the planning accuracy for water management of hydropower while addressing environmental challenges. The review delivers helpful prospective suggestions and tools that would serve researchers, power engineers, and stakeholders in making decisions about hydropower technologies and services in 2050 and beyond.
13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
Security Constrained Distributed Transaction Model for Multiple Prosumers
Massive access of renewable energy has prompted demand-side distributed resources to participate in regulation and improve flexibility of power systems. With large-scale access of massive, decentralized, and diverse distributed resources, demand-side market members have transformed from traditional “consumers” to “prosumers”. To explore the distributed transaction model of prosumers, in this paper, a multi-prosumer distributed transaction model is proposed, and the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) theory is applied to quantify potential risks caused by the stochastic characteristics inherited from renewable energy. First, a prosumer model under constraints of the distribution network including photovoltaic units, fuel cells, energy storage system, central air conditioning and flexible loads is established, and a multi-prosumer distributed transaction strategy is proposed to achieve power sharing among multiple prosumers. Second, a prosumer transaction model based on CVaR is constructed to measure risks inherited from the uncertainty of PV output within the prosumer and ensure safety of system operation in extreme PV output scenarios. Then, the alternating direction multiplier method (ADMM) is utilized to solve the constructed model efficiently. Finally, distributed transaction costs of prosumers are distributed fairly based on the generalized Nash equilibrium to maximize social benefits. Simulation results show the multi-prosumer distributed transaction mechanism established under the proposed generalized Nash equilibrium method can encourage power sharing among prosumers, increasing their own income and social benefits. Also, the CVaR can assist decision making of prosumers in weighting the risks and benefits, improving system resilience through energy management of prosumers.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Infrastructure and resource development needs to support a significant expansion of US nuclear capacity
In December 2023, the United States pledged at a United Nations conference to triple nuclear energy by 2050. In May of 2025 a new administration announced plans to quadruple nuclear energy by 2025, setting a new target that requires understanding the key infrastructure and resources needed to achieve large-scale deployment. This study attempts to quantify “what it takes” to deploy an additional 200 GWe of nuclear capacity. It projects demand levels for workforce, fuel, uranium mining and enrichment, waste management, supply chain, land, licensing, and water. Demand growth is also contextualized. For example, the peak number of construction workers required is approximately 215,000, a 37 % increase in the current US utility construction workforce. Up to 80,000 MT/year of mined uranium will be needed, necessitating a 60-fold increase in US mining production or a doubling of global mining if sourced externally. Advanced reactor fuels, uranium mining, and nuclear-grade equipment production would need substantial expansion. Operational workforce, enrichment needs, and licensing submissions also face significant increases. Although water consumption may see relatively lower increases, securing water rights poses unique challenges. This study consolidates various demand metrics in a broad context, highlighting the necessity of early preparations, such as workforce training, to support a tripling of nuclear energy. While it outlines the demand-side requirements, it does not assess the difficulties of ramping up or other supply-side issues. The findings also shed light on the impact of reactor size and reactor technology on various demand metrics.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Buildings Sector Scenarios: Demand-side data to support energy system planning in the United States
The US energy system is in a period of high uncertainty about load growth, its implications for the energy generation mix, and downstream impacts on customer energy costs. In this context, there is a need for comprehensive, credible, and readily-customized projections of energy demand to ensure that planning decisions account for end-use management opportunities to improve system reliability and affordability. Here we introduce the Buildings Sector Scenarios (BSS) dataset, which includes a benchmark suite of such projections for the buildings sector — a key source of energy consumption, peak electricity demand, and consumer energy expenditures. The dataset contains projections through 2050 covering the contiguous United States (CONUS) resolved down to the county, hourly level by sector and end use for electricity demand and to the state, annual level by sector and end use for non-electric fuels. We summarize the BSS analysis workflow and the tools and datasets that support it, document key BSS scenario inputs and modeling assumptions, and outline BSS scenario outputs. We assess the technical quality of the dataset against historical surveys and projected estimates of buildings sector demand. Finally, we provide guidance on how stakeholders can access, use, and reproduce the dataset, and/or create new scenarios to explore their own analysis questions.
Langevin, Jared↗
Hierarchical Transactive Control of Flexible Building Loads Under Distribution LMP
With grid modernization efforts, future distribution networks, which consist of various distributed generators and flexible loads, will be more flexible and active. All new network components of distributed energy resources (DERs) drive and enable the transition towards a market-based distribution net-work that seeks the optimal allocation of all DERs. To address challenges associated with DERs, one promising solution is to utilize demand-side flexibility of building loads facilitated by demand response (DR) programs and provide ancillary grid services through distribution-level markets. Under this new paradigm, this paper proposes an efficient DR management strategy incorporating emerging price signals of distribution markets, i.e., distribution locational marginal price (DLMP), based on a hierarchical transactive control approach. The proposed approach establishes a two-layer decision-making framework; the upper layer formulates a bilevel model to obtain an optimal demand response (ODR) under DLMP, and the lower layer employs model-free control to dispatch the (aggregated) ODR to individual end users. Numerical case studies using a modified IEEE 33 test network are performed to verify the effectiveness of the proposed approach; load shifting and peak shaving for the distribution system operator and payments’ reduction for end users while maintaining their comfort.
Park, Byungkwon↗