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At least 37 records · Page 2

Scaled Implementation of Smart Charge Management for Electric Vehicles

Smart charge management (SCM) has become a critical strategy for mitigating potential grid impacts and reducing electricity costs for all customers. This study will evaluate the economics of implementing light-duty EV SCM at scale across the United States. This work will enhance distribution system analysis by estimating SCM implementation costs, exploring viable business cases, and developing a framework for national-level applications. The primary methodology involves leveraging detailed grid modeling from a specific service territory and using spatial extrapolation techniques to generalize findings to other regions. The analysis will develop key metrics to quantify the costs and benefits of SCM, including implementation costs relative to strategy and scale, the cost of distribution system upgrades with and without SCM, and the percentage of peak-load reduction. The objective is to produce a comprehensive report and a parameterized framework that enables utilities to self-assess the value of SCM in their own service territories. This will support the development of cost-effective charging strategies, accelerate the energization of new EV chargers, and facilitate the seamless integration of EVs into the nation's power grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Investigating Low-Altitude Constellations of Ad-Hoc Lunar PNT System for Distributed Spacecraft Autonomy

In this study, we examine a low-altitude Lunar Position, Navigation, and Timing (LPNT) constellations and the localization performance of Centralized Extended Kalman Filter (CEKF) and Decentralized Extended Kalman Filter (DEKF) algorithms. The primary investigation involves a 100-node swarm operating at a 100 km altitude, in contrast to previous studies that examined a 21-node asset in a frozen-orbit at 5,500 km. The autonomous operation of large-scale swarm is based on two-way Inter-Satellite Link (ISL) measurements, which involve pseudoranges and relative velocities among swarm nodes. We perform a numerical assessment of the two filtering approaches, utilizing ‘fully sampled’ measurements from all available assets as well as ‘two ISL’ measurements where each spacecraft is restricted to only two antennas. This research includes an analysis of CEKF under 2-ISL constraints and evaluates the performance of DEKF in a 100-node swarm, which has not been explored in previous studies. In addition, we examine the impact of increasing the sampling frequency for DEKF, showing that the update cycle can be shortened from a 10-minute interval. A novel approach for ‘2-ISL limited’ DEKF will also be introduced, using a matching formulation that exhaustively enumerates all potential matches. This study provides valuable insights into large-scale distributed swarm operations, considering various filter configurations, sampling frequencies, matching strategies, and scalability of CEKF and DEKF for low-altitude LPNT applications. The Lunar PNT technology plays a key role in providing reliable and robust navigation services on the Moon's surface and the South pole, where the primary Lunar missions are planned. To support upcoming Lunar missions, including small satellites from NASA's Commercial Lunar Payload Services program, the Lunar PNT system must be adaptable to smaller platforms like CubeSats. Driven by the growing involvement of public and private exploration partnerships, the traditional low Earth orbit missions are shifting to beyond geosynchronous orbit [1]. These upcoming missions aim to foster a sustainable and innovative exploration program, in collaboration with commercial and international partners, to facilitate human expansion throughout the solar system and return new knowledge and opportunities to Earth [2]. As part of this trend, there are increasing efforts to utilize science missions in Lunar orbit to develop a non-dedicated and ad-hoc PNT network system. Two traditional approaches, the Deep Space Network (DSN) and the weak signal Global Positioning System (GPS), are established deep-space navigation technologies for missions beyond the geosynchronous orbit. Beginning in 1958, the DSN was developed to communicate with the Explorer 1 spacecraft based on the use of radiometric tracking in spacecraft navigation [3]. The DSN is capable of providing nearly unfettered coverage to spacecraft beyond low-Earth orbit (LEO), however, increased space mission volume has created concerns about future expectations of DSN usage for spacecraft navigation [4]. For cislunar mission applications, the position accuracy using DSN achieves 100 m (3σ) with at least three geometrically diverse ground stations when using radiometric tracking alone [5]. The DSN's dependence on Earth-based ground stations restricts its operational capabilities to periods of Earth visibility. This limitation, coupled with its poor localization performance, renders the DSN unsuitable for future lunar missions that demand continuous tracking and precise positioning. To satisfy the increasing requirements of DSN in Lunar applications, spacecrafts are also required to improve their onboard antenna power and efficiency of the transmission. However, there is an important aggregate cost trade between adding capabilities to every spacecraft and adding to a capacity on the ground that serves multiple spacecraft [6]. A weak GPS system can provide PNT service while the user spacecraft is bound to the Moon, leveraging a single, steerable high gain antenna with the relatively narrow beam which includes all the sources in its field of view [7]. However, the higher the altitude the receiver is above the GPS constellations, the poorer and the weaker are the relative geometry and the received signal powers, respectively, leading to a significant navigation accuracy reduction [8]. The transmitted power becomes weaker with increasing distance from the Earth as well as signals tracked from one of the side lobes of the GPS antenna pattern. As a results, the number of visible satellites and relative geometric condition of the GPS satellites at very high altitude drops dramatically and reduces the navigation solution accuracy. Therefore, the weak GPS system is also not an ideal way to provide PNT service to upcoming Lunar missions when considering its limited geometric condition and the recued navigation accuracy. Another navigation approach on the Moon is being developed, similar to the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) on Earth, aiming to offer navigation service with continuous 24/7 coverage across the entire Lunar surface. For example, lunar communications relay and navigation systems (LCRNS) by NASA and Lunar navigation satellite systems (LNSS) by JAXA are designed to serve as dedicated Position, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) systems for the Moon. However, designing a dedicated LNSS and PNT service involves additional challenges, which are unique to the lunar environment, including limited payload capacity for the CubeSat platform, i.e., the size, weight, and power (SWaP) of the onboard clock, limited lunar ground monitoring stations, and limited financial investment as compared to the legacy Earth-GPS [9]. NASA’s focus on utilizing CubeSat platforms on the Moon leads to an alternative Lunar navigation platform that leverages the existing Lunar science and exploration assets. The small satellites used in Lunar missions can be used to create a low-cost, autonomous, ad-hoc, and on-demand mission-centric Lunar PNT swarm capable of providing PNT services to these low-cost lunar missions [10]. As upcoming Lunar missions will often operate at low-altitude about 30 km to 100 km for scientific observations and mapping purposes, the low-altitude orbital constellations could be employed to create an ad-hoc Lunar PNT system. However, several issues must be addressed, such as the instability of these orbits, which often require maintenance or are only suitable for short-duration missions, operating for fewer than 90 days. Additionally, at an altitude of 100 km, the satellites have a limited period during which they are above the horizon and capable of providing PNT service to users. The implementation of a non-dedicated, ad-hoc Lunar navigation constellation facilitates on-demand PNT services. A preliminary study of ad-hoc Lunar PNT system was conducted using 21 spacecraft in 5,5000 km altitude frozen orbits to test its feasibility and a basic performance of orbital asset localization among ad-hoc Lunar constellations in small satellites format [10]. These swarm assets are designed for autonomous localization with minimal Earth interaction, reducing dependency on bandwidth and ground resources. The design in [10] demonstrated the feasibility of a decentralized PNT approach, specifically employing a DEKF approach for state estimation, which helps minimize onboard operating costs. The DEKF method distributes computation across individual satellites, which lightens the computational load while maintaining accuracy in orbit ephemeris and clock offsets, similar to centralized systems [11]. In a follow-on study [12], each spacecraft was limited to 2 communications antennae, forcing the selection of measurements and scheduling spacecraft activities to perform the measurements. A matching algorithm is implemented to select the best measurements and schedule position estimation updates. The decentralized localization performance is also investigated with increasing levels of network degradation for swarm assets considering the impact of intermittent and permanent communication failure, to demonstrate the robustness and fidelity of the decentralized Lunar PNT service [13]. This study confirmed that the ad-hoc PNT constellations in frozen orbit are highly robust and resilient to communication failures. However, unlike frozen orbit swarm assets, the low-altitude satellites have a limited ground view at an altitude of 100 km, where the ad-hoc Lunar constellation consists of 98 low-altitude satellites, evenly distributed across seven circular polar orbital planes, alongside two satellites in a frozen orbit at an altitude of 5,500 km (Figure 1). Therefore, the number of satellites visible to ground users is significantly limited in low-altitude orbit constellations. As each visibility of a spacecraft remains intact for only a few ticks before it moves out of the field of view, the ground user encounters challenges in maintaining continuous navigation service, resulting in sparse availability and provision of Lunar PNT system. Consequently, service availability is primarily restricted to the Lunar South Pole region (Figure 2). Given these limitations and concerns, the localization performance of low-altitude swarm assets will be assessed in this study. We focus on the investigation of the localization performance of low-altitude swarm assets and ground users near the Lunar South Pole. The overall flow of the Lunar PNT simulation incorporates the DEKF approach of asset localization and the weighted least-squares approach in user localization (Figure 3). The autonomous Lunar PNT simulation is primarily implemented in MATLAB, where the DEKF based on the matching scheduler is implemented with Google’s OR-tools as a model builder and Gurobi optimization tool as a backend solver. The General Mission Analysis Tool (GMAT) is utilized to generate ephemeris data for swarm assets, and accounts for satellite orbital details, mass, and perturbations like solar radiation pressure and drag coefficients. Each ephemeris dataset is produced in the Moon International Celestial Reference Frame (ICRF) inertial coordinate system. For state estimation, the distributed swarm assets rely on two-way Inter-Satellite Link (ISL) measurements, which involve tracking pseudoranges and relative velocities between visible satellites and anchor nodes during each observation. Numerical evaluations of the decentralized localization process are conducted to demonstrate the feasibility of the low-altitude PNT system in providing reliable navigation services. The main approach involves using DEKF and CEKF to localize 100 satellites in low-altitude constellations, where the CEKF is implemented to serve as a baseline for comparing the performance of distributed algorithms. In both cases, we evaluate ‘fully sampled’ measurements from all available assets, and ‘two ISL’ measurements when spacecraft are constrained to have only two antennas. We test four estimation techniques: CEKF fully sampled, CEKF two ISL, DEKF fully sampled, and DEKF two ISL filters. As the DEKF update cycle is comprised of network setup, communication, and computations, a global broadcast network and 2-way ISL network setup will take from 4 to 6 minutes as maximum [12]. In this simulation, the DEKF update cycle is set to 10 minutes, including a 4-minute latency for obtaining and computing the actual measurement updates. We experiment an increased update cycle to demonstrate the feasibility and evaluate the impact on localization performance using various tuning values for measurement noise covariances (Figures 4 and 5). By comparing centralized and decentralized approaches using a matching algorithm, we analyze the influence of cross-correlation factors in the covariance matrix, assuming 100% reliability of all assets and measurements. The increased frequency and the adjustments of tuning parameters reveal distinct error patterns between the two scenarios. The localization accuracy of the swarm assets and ground users is assessed by taking the median error across 100 assets and one ground user (84.9°S, 137.5°E) over 7-day simulation period (Table 1). Since the user localization accuracy is significantly affected by the performance of the swarm assets, it is crucial to maintain high localization accuracy within the swarm. This study will continue to explore decentralized filtering for autonomous LPNT operations, with further investigation of an 'iterative' matching approach which enumerates every valid matching pair, planned for the following month.

Yeji Kim↗

Distributed Pressure Sensing for Enabling Self-Aware Autonomous Aerial Vehicles

Autonomous aerial transportation will be a fixture of future robotic societies, simultaneously requiring more stringent safety requirements and fewer resources for characterization than current commercial air transportation. More robust, adaptable, self-state estimation will be necessary to create such autonomous systems. We present a modular, scalable, distributed pressure sensing skin for aerodynamic state estimation of a large, flexible aerostructure. This skin used a network of 22 nodes that performed in-situ computation and communication of data collected from 74 pressure sensors, which were embedded into the skin panels of an ultra-lightweight 14-foot wingspan made from commutable, lattice-based subcomponents, and tested at NASA Langley Research Center's 14X22 wind tunnel. The density of the pressure sensors allowed for the use of a novel distributed algorithm to generate estimates of the wing lift contribution that were more accurate than the direct integration of the pressure distribution over the wing surface.

Daniel Cellucci↗

Ensuring Solution Uniqueness in Three-Phase Power System State Estimation

This paper is concerned with the issue of potential non-unique solutions in three-phase state estimation. Theory of observability analysis for positive sequence power system state estimation is based on certain assumptions that avoid possibility of multiple solutions. Also, it is shown that observability of a positive sequence network remains independent of the network parameters or the operating state. When extending single-phase observability analysis directly to the three-phase case, this paper considers the possibility of converging to multiple solutions, i.e. solution non-uniqueness, even for cases where state estimator successfully converges. The study illustrates via numerical examples the likelihood of converging to entirely different solutions for certain network parameters. It also examines how the operating state, particularly under unbalanced loading, leads to solution non-uniqueness. The paper then describes an alternative approach to ensure a unique solution in three-phase state estimation. This method aims to accurately and uniquely estimate the state of any unbalanced three-phase system, irrespective of load imbalance, network configuration, existence of synchronous generators or transformers.

Power System State Estimation, Three-Phase, Distri↗

Power system state estimation for a spacecraft power system

An application of the maximum likelihood state estimator to a space-based power system is presented. The state estimator uses current and voltage measurements to generate estimates of node voltages for an electrical power distribution system for the Space Shuttle. Preliminary results on the effect of noisy measurements on estimated parameters are reported. The software used in generating these results is part of an overall package being developed at Louisiana Tech University. Intended applications of this package include the analysis of power systems and real-time parallel processing on the Space Shuttle.

Berry, F. C.↗

Localization of Ad-Hoc Lunar Constellations in Communication Failure Modes for Distributed Spacecraft Autonomy

As lunar missions increase in complexity inspired by NASA’s Artemis Program, they will require reliable and sufficient capability of the Position, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) system to support their scientific objectives. In addition, NASA's Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) program initiates the proliferation of public and private exploration partnerships using small satellites from commercial and private organizations, expanding traditionally confined low Earth orbit to be used for missions beyond geosynchronous orbit (Zucherman et al., 2022). Therefore, the Lunar PNT system is also required to provide navigation services compatible with the smaller platforms being sent by the public and private sectors, like CubeSats. However, traditional approaches to deep space missions’ navigation based on ground radio facilities have difficulties in providing sufficient support for the increasing number of users and communication at a distance from the Earth (Kaplev et al., 2022). In particular, the existing Lunar navigation technologies such as weak signal global positioning system (GPS) and deep space network (DSN) are not able to ensure operations of the upcoming small-scale Lunar missions due to their limitations in localization performance as well as capacity aspects. Another way to provide Lunar PNT service is to create a dedicated Lunar global navigation satellite system (GNSS) constellation, like GNSS systems on Earth. Space agencies like NASA, ESA, and JAXA are now developing the lunar communications relay and navigation systems (LCRNS) and Lunar navigation satellite systems (LNSS). In their systems, satellites will be deployed in moon orbits to provide the communication, positioning, navigation, and timing (CPNT) service at the lunar south pole region where the Artemis base camp will be expected (Murata et al., 2022). Meanwhile, common challenges considered in lunar PNT research arise from poor geometry of the terrestrial GNSS satellites when seen from the lunar user, highly perturbed lunar orbits, and limitations in power, size, and cost of the equipment on lunar satellites (Iiyama et al., 2023). It is also not clear if there will be enough Lunar users to support the cost and resources this would require as the Low-cost surface missions may not be able to support the large power, mass, and weight requirements that these navigation solutions entail (Niemoeller et al., 2022). As an alternative, existing Lunar science and exploration assets could be used to create a low-cost, autonomous, ad-hoc, and on-demand mission-centric Lunar PNT swarm capable of providing PNT services to these low-cost lunar missions (Hagenau et al., 2021). Introducing the non-dedicated and ad-hoc Lunar navigation constellation gives a way to provide PNT services on-demand. The non-dedicated swarm assets of Lunar constellations are designed to localize themselves with minimal interaction with Earth by adding cooperative autonomous localization to lunar missions, freeing up valuable bandwidth and ground segment resources. An autonomous localization of Lunar constellations is based on the concept of the decentralized PNT system with a distributed extended Kalman filter (DEKF) approach to state estimation for minimal onboard operating costs. In the distributed data processing algorithm, computation is broken down and assigned to each satellite, resulting in a considerably decreased computational amount while maintaining the accuracy of the orbit ephemeris and clock offsets as the result of centralized data processing (Wen et al., 2019). The DEKF requires spacecraft to perform two-way ranging operations with each other to communicate simultaneously, leveraging neighbor two-way intersatellite link (ISL) measurements such as pseudoranges to, and relative velocities between, visible satellites as sensor values (Frank et al., 2021). The Lunar autonomous PNT simulation (LAPS) demonstrated the feasibility of orbital asset localization among ad-hoc Lunar small-sat constellations based on the DEKF in Hagenau et al. (2021) and evaluated the matching algorithm proposed by Frank et al. (2021) in scheduling position estimation updates. In previous papers, all assets and measurements are assumed to be always available without consideration of the impact of intermittent and permanent communication failure. This study presents localization performance with increasing levels of network degradation for swarm assets and users to demonstrate the robustness of the decentralized Lunar PNT service in more realistic scenarios. Main issues arising from communication failure include spacecraft permanent or transient loss, antenna failures, message delays, etc. We tested four possible reasons for network degradation for 7 days in 21 satellites frozen with an altitude of 5500 km, evenly spaced around 3 circular, 40 inclination orbital planes where each spacecraft has two directional antennas. As anchor nodes with an independent estimate of their position are required in the DEKF approach, two ground nodes in each pole and one node in the gateway were implemented in the simulation. First, the most probable failure scenario involves the loss of a single spacecraft due to solar interference and technical malfunctions of the assets. Losing the availability of a single spacecraft means losing the two-way ISL measurement of the asset in the DEKF update. In order to provide the best possible quality of PNT service with limited time and resources, the distributed Lunar constellations must schedule the communication activities. The scheduler leverages mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) for the coordination and scheduling of the desired “as-needed” localization service (Niemoeller et al., 2022). We assume the scheduler has completely excluded the spacecraft information before the DEKF update in the failure scenario. When a random spacecraft has been turned off at a specific time, the robustness of the autonomous Lunar PNT system is evaluated. The simulation results give an 11.5% degradation in median position accuracy compared to the idealized performance excluding the asset loss. Second, a large number of assets may vanish due to major hardware problems or meteor strikes around the moon. A multiple spacecraft loss can degrade the localization performance very fast by losing the communication ability to do cross-plane measurements and in-plane measurements in a 3-plane constellation. When the matching-based scheduler is aware of ISL availability, we investigate a large number of in-plane and cross-plane asset vanishments both in close proximity and equally spaced throughout the orbital plane. According to the simulations, the loss of in-plane measurements gives 40.2% degradation while cross-plane measurements degrade 50.5% of asset localization performance among available assets. Therefore, it is concluded that cross-plane measurements are more important in improving the position estimation accuracy. Third, spacecraft failure information can be lost due to the internal message delay, resulting in the DEKF update scheduler to solve the matching problem with unavailable assets. The DEKF update cycle is comprised of network setup, communication, and computations where a global broadcast network and a 2-way ISL network setup take 6 minutes in total (Frank et al., 2021). Once the broadcast network successfully transmits and receives information, a random spacecraft may lose its availability right before solving the matching problem. This means the matching solution is no longer optimal, resulting in degradation in the localization performance. A numerical assessment shows the matching-based scheduler with knowing failure holds 11.5% of position accuracy degradation, whereas the scheduler without knowing failure gives 34% degraded localization performance without asset loss. Fourth, a transient loss of a single or multiple spacecraft may occur due to their antenna outages. After losing the two-way ISL availability for a few DEKF update cycles, the availability of spacecraft can easily be recovered as their states have been independently updated using measurements from anchor nodes. It is likely that the longer failure will result in worse localization performance. We have tested the transient failure of a random single asset for 30 min in the simulation, which is losing 3 update cycles in the DEKF system. From the simulation results, the position accuracy has been degraded to 4.84% which is better than the degraded localization performance of 11.5% from the permanent loss scenario among available assets. In conclusion, the autonomous Lunar PNT system based on the DEKF approach shows the ability to maintain resilience and robustness in the possible communication failure scenarios, ensuring that localization accuracy is preserved across various network degradation and outages. Future studies on investigating user localization performance near the South Pole and the broadcast network system will be continued in the following months.

Yeji Kim↗

Parameter estimation of large flexible aerospace structures with application to the control of the Maypole Deployable Reflector

Systems such as the Maypole deployable reflector have a distributed parameter nature. The flexible column and hoop structure and the circular antenna of 30-100 meter diameter which it supports are described by partial, rather than ordinary, differential equations. Progress completed in reduced order modelling andd controller design and digital parameter estimation and control is summarized. Topics covered include depolyment and on-orbit operation; quasi-static (steady state) operation; dynamic distributed parameter system; autoregressive moving average identification; frequency domain procedures; direct or implicit active control; adaptive observers; parameter estimation using a linear reinforcement learning factor; feedback control; and reduced order modeling for nonlinear systems.

Balas, M. J.↗

Static shape control for flexible structures

An integrated methodology is described for defining static shape control laws for large flexible structures. The techniques include modeling, identifying and estimating the control laws of distributed systems characterized in terms of infinite dimensional state and parameter spaces. The models are expressed as interconnected elliptic partial differential equations governing a range of static loads, with the capability of analyzing electromagnetic fields around antenna systems. A second-order analysis is carried out for statistical errors, and model parameters are determined by maximizing an appropriate defined likelihood functional which adjusts the model to observational data. The parameter estimates are derived from the conditional mean of the observational data, resulting in a least squares superposition of shape functions obtained from the structural model.

Rodriguez, G.↗

H ∞ Control for Energy Dispatch in Autonomous Nanogrid With Communication Delays

This paper proposes an optimal controller and estimator for energy dispatch to balance the power supply and demand considering communication delays. The proposed algorithm involves modeling an autonomous nanogrid (ANG) consisting of distributed energy resources, energy storage systems, loads, an $H$ ∞ controller with a reference power modulation technique, and a state estimator. The ANG was developed to express the dynamic supply-demand energy balance of a nanogird system. Reference power modulation was designed to generate the desired ESS power based on the imbalanced energy. Random communication delays were modeled using a stochastic variable satisfying the Bernoulli random binary distribution. The optimal $H$ ∞ controller and estimator were developed using a linear matrix inequality approach to exponentially stabilize the closed-loop system. Simulations were performed using real daily demand forecasts obtained from the Korea Meteorological Administration to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed real-time optimization algorithm.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Parameter estimation in nonlinear distributed systems - Approximation theory and convergence results

An abstract approximation framework and convergence theory is described for Galerkin approximations applied to inverse problems involving nonlinear distributed parameter systems. Parameter estimation problems are considered and formulated as the minimization of a least-squares-like performance index over a compact admissible parameter set subject to state constraints given by an inhomogeneous nonlinear distributed system. The theory applies to systems whose dynamics can be described by either time-independent or nonstationary strongly maximal monotonic operators defined on a reflexive Banach space which is densely and continuously embedded in a Hilbert space. It is demonstrated that if readily verifiable conditions on the system's dependence on the unknown parameters are satisfied, and the usual Galerkin approximation assumption holds, then solutions to the approximating problems exist and approximate a solution to the original infinite-dimensional identification problem.

Banks, H. T.↗

An efficient algorithm for estimating noise covariances in distributed systems

An efficient computational algorithm for estimating the noise covariance matrices of large linear discrete stochatic-dynamic systems is presented. Such systems arise typically by discretizing distributed-parameter systems, and their size renders computational efficiency a major consideration. The proposed adaptive filtering algorithm is based on the ideas of Belanger, and is algebraically equivalent to his algorithm. The earlier algorithm, however, has computational complexity proportional to p to the 6th, where p is the number of observations of the system state, while the new algorithm has complexity proportional to only p-cubed. Further, the formulation of noise covariance estimation as a secondary filter, analogous to state estimation as a primary filter, suggests several generalizations of the earlier algorithm. The performance of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated for a distributed system arising in numerical weather prediction.

Dee, D. P.↗

A Comparative Study on Computation of Cumulative Distribution Function in Predicting Time of Failure of Engineering Systems

Estimating accurate Time-of-Failure (ToF) of a system is key in making the decisions that impact operational safety and optimize cost. In this context, it is interesting to note that different approaches have been explored to tackle the problem of estimating ToF. The difference is in part characterized by different definitions of the hazard zones. The conventional definition for the cumulative distribution function (CDF) calculation is assumed to have well-defined hazard zones, that is, hazard zones defined as a function of the system state trajectory. An alternate method suggests the use of hazard zones defined as a function of the system state at time , instead of hazard zones defined as a function of system state up to and including time k (Acuna and Orchard 2018, 2017). This paper explores these differences and their impact on ToF estimation. Results for the conventional CDF definition indicated that, (i) the cumulative distribution function is always an increasing function of time, even when realizations of the degradation process are not monotonic, (ii) the sum of all probabilities is always 1 and does not need to be normalized, and (iii) all probabilities are positive and less than or equal to 1. Similar results are not observed for CDF calculation with hazard zones defined as a function only of the system state at time . Results for ToF estimation using Acuna's definition differ, suggesting that there is an underlying assumption of independence in the hazard zone definition. Therefore, we present an alternate definition of hazard zone which guarantees the properties of a well-defined CDF with a more straightforward ToF definition.

Hazard Zone↗

Observability and Estimation of Distributed Space Systems via Local Information-Exchange Networks

In this work, we develop an approach to formation estimation by explicitly characterizing formation's system-theoretic attributes in terms of the underlying inter-spacecraft information-exchange network. In particular, we approach the formation observer/estimator design by relaxing the accessibility to the global state information by a centralized observer/estimator- and in turn- providing an analysis and synthesis framework for formation observers/estimators that rely on local measurements. The noveltyof our approach hinges upon the explicit examination of the underlying distributed spacecraft network in the realm of guidance, navigation, and control algorithmic analysis and design. The overarching goal of our general research program, some of whose results are reported in this paper, is the development of distributed spacecraft estimation algorithms that are scalable, modular, and robust to variations inthe topology and link characteristics of the formation information exchange network. In this work, we consider the observability of a spacecraft formation from a single observation node and utilize the agreement protocol as a mechanism for observing formation states from local measurements. Specifically, we show how the symmetry structure of the network, characterized in terms of its automorphism group, directly relates to the observability of the corresponding multi-agent system The ramification of this notion of observability over networks is then explored in the context of distributed formation estimation.

observability↗

Measurements and Computations of Natural Transition on the NASA Juncture-Flow Model with a Symmetric Wing

Experiments were performed in the 14- by 22-Foot Subsonic Tunnel to assess natural transition on the symmetric-airfoil wings of the NASA Juncture-Flow Model. Infrared thermography was used to visualize the heating on the upper surface of both wings of the full-span model, and on the fuselage, for angles of incidence ranging from -10° to 10° at a fixed Reynolds number of 2.4E6 based on the chord length at the wing planform break. The fuselage boundary layer transitioned well upstream of the wing-root leading edge for all conditions. Transition fronts were identified by a steep rise in the surface temperature, and the transition coordinates were transformed from an image-based to a body-fixed system. Additionally, the state of the boundary layer was estimated at pressure ports distributed on the wings through observation of the pressure coefficient as a function of the angle of incidence. For increasing angles of incidence, the transition front was observed to advance upstream, in a mostly spanwise-uniform fashion, from near midchord at α = 0°; however, for increasingly negative angles of incidence, the transition front first receded and then advanced in a nonuniform jagged manner that is typically observed with stationary crossflow. The transition wedges first appeared inboard of the wing break and then spread outboard to near the tip by α = -6°. The upstream shift in transition at positive angles of incidence and the outboard progression of crossflow-dominated transition at increasingly negative angles of incidence are consistent with trends identified in a computational assessment of the boundary-layer transition based on both linear stability analysis and Reynolds-averaged-Navier-Stokes-based transition models. The stability results obtained from the Langley Stability and Transition Analysis Code were used to recalibrate a dual N-factor criterion, which allowed for the prediction of transition fronts that showed excellent agreement with the experiment. The Reynolds-averaged-Navier-Stokes-based models, from the NASA OVERFLOW 2.3 solver, that accounted for the crossflow instability showed mixed results in comparison with the experiment, with the helicity-based Langtry-Menter model performing the best. The experimental data, particularly the cases involving strong influence from both Tollmien-Schlichting and crossflow instabilities, will be valuable for the continued validation and improvement of transition models.

Boundary layer transition↗

Measurements and Computations of Natural Transition on the NASA Juncture-Flow Model with a Symmetric Wing

Experiments were performed in the 14- by 22-Foot Subsonic Tunnel to assess natural transition on the symmetric-airfoil wings of the NASA Juncture-Flow Model. Infrared thermography was used to visualize the heating on the upper surface of both wings of the full-span model, and on the fuselage, for angles of incidence ranging from -10° to 10° at a fixed Reynolds number of 2.4E6 based on the chord length at the wing planform break. The fuselage boundary layer transitioned well upstream of the wing-root leading edge for all conditions. Transition fronts were identified by a steep rise in the surface temperature, and the transition coordinates were transformed from an image-based to a body-fixed system. Additionally, the state of the boundary layer was estimated at pressure ports distributed on the wings through observation of the pressure coefficient as a function of the angle of incidence. For increasing angles of incidence, the transition front was observed to advance upstream, in a mostly spanwise-uniform fashion, from near midchord at α = 0°; however, for increasingly negative angles of incidence, the transition front first receded and then advanced in a nonuniform jagged manner that is typically observed with stationary crossflow. The transition wedges first appeared inboard of the wing break and then spread outboard to near the tip by α = -6°. The upstream shift in transition at positive angles of incidence and the outboard progression of crossflow-dominated transition at increasingly negative angles of incidence are consistent with trends identified in a computational assessment of the boundary-layer transition based on both linear stability analysis and Reynolds-averaged-Navier-Stokes-based transition models. The stability results obtained from the Langley Stability and Transition Analysis Code were used to recalibrate a dual N-factor criterion, which allowed for the prediction of transition fronts that showed excellent agreement with the experiment. The Reynolds-averaged-Navier-Stokes-based models, from the NASA OVERFLOW 2.3 solver, that accounted for the crossflow instability showed mixed results in comparison with the experiment, with the helicity-based Langtry-Menter model performing the best. The experimental data, particularly the cases involving strong influence from both Tollmien-Schlichting and crossflow instabilities, will be valuable for the continued validation and improvement of transition models.

boundary layer transition↗

Measurements and Computations of Natural Transition on the NASA Juncture-Flow Model with a Symmetric Wing

Experiments were performed in the 14- by 22-Foot Subsonic Tunnel to assess natural transition on the symmetric-airfoil wings of the NASA Juncture-Flow Model. Infrared thermography was used to visualize the heating on the upper surface of both wings of the full-span model, and on the fuselage, for angles of incidence ranging from -10° to 10° at a fixed Reynolds number of 2.4E6 based on the chord length at the wing planform break. The fuselage boundary layer transitioned well upstream of the wing-root leading edge for all conditions. Transition fronts were identified by a steep rise in the surface temperature, and the transition coordinates were transformed from an image-based to a body-fixed system. Additionally, the state of the boundary layer was estimated at pressure ports distributed on the wings through observation of the pressure coefficient as a function of the angle of incidence. For increasing angles of incidence, the transition front was observed to advance upstream, in a mostly spanwise-uniform fashion, from near midchord at α = 0°; however, for increasingly negative angles of incidence, the transition front first receded and then advanced in a nonuniform jagged manner that is typically observed with stationary crossflow. The transition wedges first appeared inboard of the wing break and then spread outboard to near the tip by α = -6°. The upstream shift in transition at positive angles of incidence and the outboard progression of crossflow-dominated transition at increasingly negative angles of incidence are consistent with trends identified in a computational assessment of the boundary-layer transition based on both linear stability analysis and Reynolds-averaged-Navier-Stokes-based transition models. The stability results obtained from the Langley Stability and Transition Analysis Code were used to recalibrate a dual N-factor criterion, which allowed for the prediction of transition fronts that showed excellent agreement with the experiment. The Reynolds-averaged-Navier-Stokes-based models, from the NASA OVERFLOW 2.3 solver, that accounted for the crossflow instability showed mixed results in comparison with the experiment, with the helicity-based Langtry-Menter model performing the best. The experimental data, particularly the cases involving strong influence from both Tollmien-Schlichting and crossflow instabilities, will be valuable for the continued validation and improvement of transition models.

boundary layer transition↗

Detection of "noisy" chaos in a time series

Time series from biological system often displays fluctuations in the measured variables. Much effort has been directed at determining whether this variability reflects deterministic chaos, or whether it is merely "noise". The output from most biological systems is probably the result of both the internal dynamics of the systems, and the input to the system from the surroundings. This implies that the system should be viewed as a mixed system with both stochastic and deterministic components. We present a method that appears to be useful in deciding whether determinism is present in a time series, and if this determinism has chaotic attributes. The method relies on fitting a nonlinear autoregressive model to the time series followed by an estimation of the characteristic exponents of the model over the observed probability distribution of states for the system. The method is tested by computer simulations, and applied to heart rate variability data.

Non-NASA Center↗

Detection of chaotic determinism in time series from randomly forced maps

Time series from biological system often display fluctuations in the measured variables. Much effort has been directed at determining whether this variability reflects deterministic chaos, or whether it is merely "noise". Despite this effort, it has been difficult to establish the presence of chaos in time series from biological sytems. The output from a biological system is probably the result of both its internal dynamics, and the input to the system from the surroundings. This implies that the system should be viewed as a mixed system with both stochastic and deterministic components. We present a method that appears to be useful in deciding whether determinism is present in a time series, and if this determinism has chaotic attributes, i.e., a positive characteristic exponent that leads to sensitivity to initial conditions. The method relies on fitting a nonlinear autoregressive model to the time series followed by an estimation of the characteristic exponents of the model over the observed probability distribution of states for the system. The method is tested by computer simulations, and applied to heart rate variability data.

Non-NASA Center↗