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At least 37 records · Page 2

Advances in Landslide Nowcasting: Evaluation of a Global and Regional Modeling Approach

The increasing availability of remotely sensed data offers a new opportunity to address landslide hazard assessment at larger spatial scales. A prototype global satellite-based landslide hazard algorithm has been developed to identify areas that may experience landslide activity. This system combines a calculation of static landslide susceptibility with satellite-derived rainfall estimates and uses a threshold approach to generate a set of nowcasts that classify potentially hazardous areas. A recent evaluation of this algorithm framework found that while this tool represents an important first step in larger-scale near real-time landslide hazard assessment efforts, it requires several modifications before it can be fully realized as an operational tool. This study draws upon a prior work s recommendations to develop a new approach for considering landslide susceptibility and hazard at the regional scale. This case study calculates a regional susceptibility map using remotely sensed and in situ information and a database of landslides triggered by Hurricane Mitch in 1998 over four countries in Central America. The susceptibility map is evaluated with a regional rainfall intensity duration triggering threshold and results are compared with the global algorithm framework for the same event. Evaluation of this regional system suggests that this empirically based approach provides one plausible way to approach some of the data and resolution issues identified in the global assessment. The presented methodology is straightforward to implement, improves upon the global approach, and allows for results to be transferable between regions. The results also highlight several remaining challenges, including the empirical nature of the algorithm framework and adequate information for algorithm validation. Conclusions suggest that integrating additional triggering factors such as soil moisture may help to improve algorithm performance accuracy. The regional algorithm scenario represents an important step forward in advancing regional and global-scale landslide hazard assessment.

Kirschbaum, Dalia Bach↗

Large Proton Anisotropies in the 18 August 2010 Solar Particle Event

The solar particle event observed at STEREO Ahead on 18 August 2010 displayeda rich variety of behavior in the particle anisotropies. Sectored rates measured by theLow Energy Telescope (LET) on STEREO showed very large bidirectional anisotropies in4 6 MeV protons for the first 17 hours of the event while inside a magnetic cloud, withintensities along the field direction several hundred to nearly 1000 times greater than thoseperpendicular to the field. At the trailing end of the cloud, the protons became isotropic andtheir spectrum hardened slightly, while the HeH abundance ratio plunged by a factor of approximatelyfour for about four hours. Associated with the arrival of a shock on 20 Augustwas a series of brief (10 minute duration) intensity increases (commonly called shockspikes) with relatively narrow angular distributions (45 FWHM), followed by an abruptdecrease in particle intensities at the shock itself and a reversal of the proton flow to a directiontoward the Sun and away from the receding shock. We discuss the STEREOLETobservations of this interesting event in the context of other observations reported in theliterature

cosmic rays solar↗

U.S. Naval Observatory VLBI Analysis Center

This report summarizes the activities of the VLBI Analysis Center at the United States Naval Observatory for the 2012 calendar year. Over the course of the year, Analysis Center personnel continued analysis and timely submission of IVS-R4 databases for distribution to the IVS. During the 2012 calendar year, the USNO VLBI Analysis Center produced two VLBI global solutions designated as usn2012a and usn2012b. Earth orientation parameters (EOP) based on this solution and updated by the latest diurnal (IVS-R1 and IVS-R4) experiments were routinely submitted to the IVS. Sinex files based upon the bi-weekly 24-hour experiments were also submitted to the IVS. During the 2012 calendar year, Analysis Center personnel continued a program to use the Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA) operated by the NRAO for the purpose of measuring UT1-UTC. Routine daily 1-hour duration Intensive observations were initiated using the VLBA antennas at Pie Town, NM and Mauna Kea, HI. High-speed network connections to these two antennas are now routinely used for electronic transfer of VLBI data over the Internet to a USNO point of presence. A total of 270 VLBA Intensive experiments were observed and electronically transferred to and processed at USNO in 2012.

Boboltz, David A.↗

A Remote Sensing-Based Tool for Assessing Rainfall-Driven Hazards

RainyDay is a Python-based platform that couples rainfall remote sensing data with Stochastic Storm Transposition (SST) for modeling rainfall-driven hazards such as floods and landslides. SST effectively lengthens the extreme rainfall record through temporal resampling and spatial transposition of observed storms from the surrounding region to create many extreme rainfall scenarios. Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves are often used for hazard modeling but require long records to describe the distribution of rainfall depth and duration and do not provide information regarding rainfall space-time structure, limiting their usefulness to small scales. In contrast, Rainy Day can be used for many hazard applications with 1-2 decades of data, and output rainfall scenarios incorporate detailed space-time structure from remote sensing. Thanks to global satellite coverage, Rainy Day can be used in inaccessible areas and developing countries lacking ground measurements, though results are impacted by remote sensing errors. Rainy Day can be useful for hazard modeling under nonstationary conditions.

Daniel B Wright↗

Intergenerational Inequities in Exposure to Climate Extremes: Young Generations Are Severely Threatened By Climate Change

Under continued global warming, extreme events such as heat waves will continue to rise in frequency, intensity, duration, and spatial extent over the next decades. Younger generations are therefore expected to face more such events across their lifetimes compared with older generations. This raises important issues of solidarity and fairness across generations that have fueled a surge of climate protests led by young people in recent years and that underpin issues of intergenerational equity raised in recent climate litigation. However, the standard scientific paradigm is to assess climate change in discrete time windows or at discrete levels of warming, a “period” approach that inhibits quantification of how much more extreme events a particular generation will experience over its lifetime compared with another. By developing a “cohort” perspective to quantify changes in lifetime exposure to climate extremes and compare across generations (see the first figure), we estimate that children born in 2020 will experience a two- to sevenfold increase in extreme events, particularly heat waves, compared with people born in 1960, under current climate policy pledges. Our results highlight a severe threat to the safety of young generations and call for drastic emission reductions to safeguard their future. Meteorological extremes, hazards, or climate change impacts are mostly studied as they evolve over time under varying emission scenarios and socioeconomic pathways. For example, applying a heat wave indicator (see table S1) to four bias-adjusted global climate models indicates that the land area annually affected by such heat waves will increase from ~15% around 2020 to ~22% by 2100 under a scenario compatible with limiting global warming to 1.5°C, and to ~46% under a scenario in line with current emission reduction pledges (see the first figure). Recent studies extended this approach, studying aspects of climate change as a function of global mean temperature (GMT) increments, highlighting the scenario-independence of several extreme event indicators but remaining, in essence, a comparison of time windows. By contrast, we performed a birth cohort analysis by combining a collection of multimodel extreme event projections with country-scale life expectancy information, gridded population data, and future global temperature trajectories from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (see supplementary materials). By integrating the exposure of an average person in a country or region to extreme events across their lifetime, we encapsulate spatiotemporal changes in climate hazards, population density, cohort size, and life expectancy (see the first figure).

global warming↗

Spatiotemporal Evolution of Marine Heatwaves Globally

The spatiotemporal evolution of marine heatwaves (MHWs) is explored using a tracking algorithm termed Ocetrac that provides objective characterization of MHW spatiotemporal evolution. Candidate MHW grid points are defined in detrended gridded sea temperature data using a seasonally varying temperature threshold. Identified MHW points are collected into spatially distinct objects using edge detection with weak sensitivity to edge detection and size threshold criteria. These MHW objects are followed in space and time while allowing objects to split and merge. Ocetrac is applied to monthly satellite sea surface temperature data from September 1981 through January 2021. The resulting MHWs are characterized by their intensity, duration, and total area covered. The global analysis shows that MHWs in the Gulf of Maine and Mediterranean Sea evolve within a relatively small region, while major MHWs in the Pacific and Indian Oceans are linked in space and time. The largest and most long lasting MHW using this method lasts for 60 months from November 2013 to October 2018, encompassing previously identified MHW events including those in the Northeast Pacific (2014-2015), the Tasman Sea (2015-2016, 2017-2018), and the Great Barrier Reef (2016).

spatiotemporal↗

The cause of high-intensity long-duration continuous AE activity (HILDCAAS) - Interplanetary Alfven wave trains

It is shown that high intensity (AE of greater than 1,000 nT), long duration (T of greater than 2d) continuous auroral activity events are caused by outward (from the sun) propagating interplanetary Alfven wave trains. The Alfven waves are often (but not always) detected several days after major interplanetary events, such as shocks and solar wind density enhancements. Presumably, magnetic reconnection between the southward components of the Alfven wave magnetic fields and magnetospheric fields is the mechanism for transfer of solar wind energy to the magnetosphere.

Tsurutani, Bruce T.↗

Evaluation of the Potential of NASA Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis in Global Landslide Hazard Assessment

Landslides are one of the most widespread natural hazards on Earth, responsible for thousands of deaths and billions of dollars in property damage every year. In the U.S. alone landslides occur in every state, causing an estimated $2 billion in damage and 25- 50 deaths each year. Annual average loss of life from landslide hazards in Japan is 170. The situation is much worse in developing countries and remote mountainous regions due to lack of financial resources and inadequate disaster management ability. Recently, a landslide buried an entire village on the Philippines Island of Leyte on Feb 17,2006, with at least 1800 reported deaths and only 3 houses left standing of the original 300. Intense storms with high-intensity , long-duration rainfall have great potential to trigger rapidly moving landslides, resulting in casualties and property damage across the world. In recent years, through the availability of remotely sensed datasets, it has become possible to conduct global-scale landslide hazard assessment. This paper evaluates the potential of the real-time NASA TRMM-based Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) system to advance our understanding of and predictive ability for rainfall-triggered landslides. Early results show that the landslide occurrences are closely associated with the spatial patterns and temporal distribution of rainfall characteristics. Particularly, the number of landslide occurrences and the relative importance of rainfall in triggering landslides rely on the influence of rainfall attributes [e.g. rainfall climatology, antecedent rainfall accumulation, and intensity-duration of rainstorms). TMPA precipitation data are available in both real-time and post-real-time versions, which are useful to assess the location and timing of rainfall-triggered landslide hazards by monitoring landslide-prone areas while receiving heavy rainfall. For the purpose of identifying rainfall-triggered landslides, an empirical global rainfall intensity-duration threshold is developed by examining a number of landslide occurrences and their corresponding TMPA precipitation characteristics across the world. These early results , in combination with TRMM real-time precipitation estimation system, may form a starting point for developing an operational early warning system for rainfall-triggered landslides around the globe.

Hong, Yang↗

A Probability Model of Decompression Sickness at 4.3 Psia after Exercise Prebreathe

Exercise PB can reduce the risk of decompression sickness on ascent to 4.3 psia when performed at the proper intensity and duration. Data are from seven tests. PB times ranged from 90 to 150 min. High intensity, short duration dual-cycle ergometry was done during the PB. This was done alone, or combined with intermittent low intensity exercise or periods of rest for the remaining PB. Nonambulating men and women performed light exercise from a semi-recumbent position at 4.3 psia for four hrs. The Research Model with age tested the probability that DCS increases with advancing age. The NASA Model with gender hypothesized that the probability of DCS increases if gender is female. Accounting for exercise and rest during PB with a variable half-time compartment for computed tissue N2 pressure advances our probability modeling of hypobaric DCS. Both models show that a small increase in exercise intensity during PB reduces the risk of DCS, and a larger increase in exercise intensity dramatically reduces risk. These models support the hypothesis that aerobic fitness is an important consideration for the risk of hypobaric DCS when exercise is performed during the PB.

Conkin, Johnny↗

A proposal to determine properties of the gravitropic response of plants in the absence of a complicating g-force (GTHRES)

Gravitropic responses of oat seedlings (Avena sativa L.) were measured on Earth and in microgravity (IML-1). The seedlings were grown at 1 g either on Earth or on 1 g centrifuges. They were challenged by centripetal accelerations for which the intensity and duration of the stimulations were varied. All stimulation intensities were in the hypogravity region from 0.1 to 1.0 g. All responses occurred either in Spacelab microgravity or during clinorotation on Earth. The experiments were carried out with the same apparatus in Spacelab and on Earth. The experiments addressed a series of scientific questions and useful data were obtained to provide answers to some but not all of those questions.

Brown, Allan H.↗

Causes of forbush decreases and other cosmic ray variations

The relationship between neutron monitor variations and the intensity variations of the interplanetary magnetic field is studied, using Deep River data and IMP-series satellite data. In over 80% of the cases studied, identifiable depressions of the cosmic ray intensity are associated with magnetic field enhancements of several hours duration and intensity above 10 gamma. Conversely, each magnetic field enhancement has an identifiable effect (though not necessarily a marked depression) on the cosmic ray intensity. Long lasting Forbush decreases are found to be the consequence of the successive action of several such features. An explanation is presented and discussed.

Barouch, E.↗

Causes of Forbush decreases and other cosmic ray variations

The relationship between neutron monitor variations and the intensity variations of the interplanetary magnetic field is studied by using Deep River data and Imp series satellite data. In over 80% of the cases studied in 1968, identifiable depressions of the cosmic ray intensity are associated with magnetic field enhancements of several hours duration and intensity above 10 gamma. Conversely, almost every magnetic field enhancement has an identifiable effect (though not necessarily a marked depression) on the cosmic ray intensity. Perpendicular gradient drifts are suggested as one possible mechanism producing the individual decreases, and some ideas on the recovery processes are presented. Long-lasting Forbush decreases are found to be the consequence of the action of several successive magnetic field enhancements. Evidence is presented that indicates that most of these enhancements are caused by the steepening of streams in interplanetary space.

Barouch, E.↗

Intensive Exercise Training During Bed Rest Attenuates Deconditioning

Intensive exercise training during bed rest attenuates deconditioning. Med. Sci. Sports Exerc., Vol. 29, No. 2, pp. 207-215, 1997. A 30-d 6 deg head-down bed rest project was conducted to evaluate variable high-intensity, short-duration, isotonic cycle ergometer exercise (ITE) training and high-intensity intermittent resistive isokinetic exercise (IKE) training regimens designed to maintain peak VO2 and muscle mass, strength, and endurance at ambulatory control levels throughout prolonged bed rest. Other elements of the deconditioning (adaptive) syndrome, such as proprioception, psychological performance, hypovolemia, water balance, body composition, and orthostatic tolerance, were also measured. Major findings are summarized in this paper. Compared with response during bed rest of the no exercise (NOE) control group: the ITE training regimen (a) maintained work capacity (peak VO2), (b) maintained plasma and red cell volumes, (c) induced positive body water balance, (d) decreased quality of sleep and mental concentration, and (e) had no effect on the decrease in orthostatic tolerance; the IKE training regimen (f) attenuated the decrease in peak VO2 by 50%, (g) attenuated loss of red cell volume by 40% but had no effect on loss of plasma volume, (b) induced positive body water balance, (i) had no adverse effect on quality of sleep or concentration, and 0) had no effect on the decrease in orthostatic tolerance. These findings suggest that various elements of the deconditioning syndrome can be manipulated by duration and intensity of ITE or IKE training regimens and that several different training protocols will be required to maintain or restore physiological and psychological performance of individuals confined to prolonged bed rest.

Greenleaf, John E.↗

Exercise Training During Bed Rest Attenuates Deconditioning

A 30-day 6 deg. head-down bed rest study was conducted to evaluate high-intensity, short-duration, alternating isotonic cycle ergometer exercise (ITE) training and high-intensity intermittent isokinetic exercise (IKE) training regiments designed to maintain peak VO2 and muscle mass, strength, and endurance at ambulatory control levels throughout prolonged bed rest. Other elements of the deconditioning (acclimation) syndrome, such as proprioception, psychological performance, hypovolemia, water balance, body composition, and orthostatic tolerance, were also measured. Compared with response during bed rest of the no exercise (NOE) control group: the ITE training regimen (a) maintained work capacity (peak VO2), (b) maintained plasma and red cell volume, (c) induced positive body water balance, (d) decreased quality of sleep and mental concentration, and (e) had no effect on the decrease in orthostatic tolerance; the IKE training regimen (a) attenuated the decrease in peak VO2 by 50%, (b) attenuated loss of red cell volume by 40%, but had no effect on loss of plasma volume, (c) induced positive body water balance, (d) had no adverse effect on quality of sleep or concentration, and (e) had no effect on the decrease in orthostatic tolerance. These findings suggest that various elements of the deconditioning syndrome can be manipulated by duration and intensity of ITE or IKE training regiments, and that several different training protocols will be required to maintain or restore physiological and psychological performance of individuals confined to prolonged bed rest.

Greenleaf, J. E.↗

Dynamics of erythrocyte count, hemoglobin, and catalase activity in rat blood in hypokinesia, muscular activity and restoration

Tests were conducted to prove that muscular exertion (in this instance swimming) of different duration and intensity, as well as hypodynamia, result in an increase of hemoglobin and number of red blood cells in peripheral blood rats. Catalase activity increased with an increase in the duration of swimming, but only up to 6 hr; with 7-9 hr of swimming as well as in hypodynamia, catalase activity decreased. It was also observed that under hypodynamia as well as in 3, 5 and 6 hr exertion (swimming) the color index of blood decreased. Pressure chamber treatment (for 8 min each day for one week), alternating a 2 min negative pressure up to 35 mm Hg with 1 min positive pressure, increased the erythrocyte count and hemoglobin content.

Taneyeva, G. V.↗

The gradational history of southern Ismenius Lacus

Two epochs of accelerated gradation affected the geomorphic evolution of southern Ismenius Lacus. These periods of enhanced gradational activity were likely related to periods of more clement climate induced by release of either recycled exogenic or juvenile endogenic atmospheric volatiles. Variations in the intensity and duration of gradation during the second epoch are indicated by the variability in the timing of cessation and degree of air fall deposit removal across the study area. Overall intensity of gradation decreased through successive epochs based on: (1) the decreasing diameter at which cumulative statistics from the respective surfaces cease to follow the expected production function; and (2) the decrease in size/increase in density of preserved valley networks incised into surfaces of differing age. A comparable decrease in valley density with time has been noted in the Isidis region.

Grant, J. A.↗

Fast drift kilometric radio bursts and solar proton events

Initial results of a comparative study of major fast drift kilometric bursts and solar proton events from Sep. 1978 to Feb. 1983 are presented. It was found that only about half of all intense, long duration ( 40 min above 500 sfu) 1 MHz bursts can be associated with F 20 MeV proton events. However, for the subset of such fast drift bursts accompanied by metric Type 2 and/or 4 activity (approximately 40% of the total), the degree of association with 20 MeV events is 80%. For the reverse association, it was found that proton events with J( 20 MeV) 0.01 1 pr cm(-2)s(-1)sr(-1)MeV(-1) were typically (approximately 80% of the time) preceded by intense 1 MHz bursts that exceeded the 500 sfu level for times 20 min (median duration approximately 35 min).

Cliver, E. W.↗

Effect of In-Flight Exercise and Extravehicular Activity on Postflight Stand Tests

The purpose of this study was to determine whether exercise performed by Space Shuttle crewmembers during short-duration spaceflights (9-16 days) affects the heart rate (HR) and blood pressure (BP) responses to standing within 2-4 hr of landing. Thirty crewmembers performed self-selected in-flight exercise and maintained exercise logs to monitor their exercise intensity and duration. A 10min stand test, preceded by at least 6 min of quiet supine rest, was completed 10- 15 d before launch (PRE) and within four hours of landing (POST). Based upon their in-flight exercise records, subjects were grouped as either high (HIex: = 3x/week, HR = 70% ,HRMax, = 20 min/session, n = 11), medium (MEDex: = 3x/week, HR = 70% HRmax, = 20 min/session, n = 10), or low (LOex: = 3x/week, HR and duration variable, n = 11) exercisers. HR and BP responses to standing were compared between groups (ANOVA, or analysis of variance, P < 0.05). There were no PRE differences between the groups in supine or standing HR and BP. Although POST supine HR was similar to PRE, all groups had an increased standing HR compared to PRE. The increase in HR upon standing was significantly greater after flight in the LOex group (36+/-5 bpm) compared to HIex or MEDex groups (25+/-1bpm; 22+/-2 bpm). Similarly, the decrease in pulse pressure (PP) from supine to standing was unchanged after spaceflight in the MEDex and HIex groups, but was significantly less in the LOex group (PRE: -9+/- 3, POST: -19+/- 4 mmHg). Thus, moderate to high levels of in-flight exercise attenuated HR and PP responses to standing after spaceflight compared.

Lee, Stuart M. C.↗