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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Incorporation of market signals for the optimal design of post combustion carbon capture systems

Recent studies have shown that fossil generators equipped with post-combustion carbon capture (PCC) systems are needed to reduce the cost of deep decarbonization. Such generators need to be flexible and responsive to grid conditions, particularly in a high variable renewable energy (VRE) environment. In this work, we evaluate the net present value (NPV) of retrofitting an existing natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) unit with a flexible PCC system while incorporating market signals from a high VRE grid. We use our industrial partner’s NGCC configuration as representative of existing NGCC units and Svante’s rapid-temperature swing adsorption (TSA) for PCC. Because of its ability to rapidly startup/shutdown and ramp-up/ramp-down, the chosen capture technology is very attractive for load-following operations. For a given set of market signals, we formulate a two-stage stochastic multi-period optimization problem, under the price-taker assumption, to simultaneously optimize the design of the capture system and operation of the entire plant. Rigorous models for the NGCC unit, PCC system, and compression system are developed using commercial process simulators and validated with either plant or vendor data. For computational tractability, we develop surrogate/reduced-order models for use in the optimization problem. The surrogate model for the NGCC plant is constructed by linearizing the rigorous dynamic model at 75% load, while data-driven nonlinear surrogate models for the capture and compression systems are constructed using simulation data from the rigorous models. The optimization problem, formulated as a mixed integer bilinear program, is implemented in the IDAES® integrated platform and solved to global optimality using Gurobi 9.5. Using this formulation, we determine the profitability of retrofitting an existing NGCC unit with the chosen capture system for multiple regions in the U.S. under two scenarios with different carbon prices. Importantly, the results show that the optimal decision strongly depends on the region and on the carbon price, thereby demonstrating the importance of the inclusion of market signals in the design process.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Physics vs structure: A systematic benchmark of learning strategies for multi-zone building thermal dynamics

Recent advances in physics-informed and data-driven machine learning promise improved thermal models for advanced building control, yet there is limited quantitative evidence on when added physics structure and architectural complexity are beneficial. Here, this work presents a systematic benchmark of five representative system identification methods for modeling multi-zone building thermal dynamics: linear state-space models, multi-layer perceptrons, neural state-space models, neural ordinary differential equations, and physically-consistent neural networks. The methods are evaluated across multiple data regimes and zone coupling strategies. Using a high-fidelity multi-zone commercial building emulator, we examine short-term and long-term prediction accuracy, computational efficiency, and ease of development. Our results reveal critical trade-offs between prediction performance, model complexity, and physical consistency. We demonstrate that decoupled, nonlinear black-box models consistently outperform coupled physics-constrained architectures in both predictive accuracy and out-of-distribution robustness in majority of the test cases for the building type considered in the study. Our findings quantify the cost of complexity in building thermal modeling and provide concrete, actionable, scenario-based guidelines for selecting model classes for control-oriented applications.

Building thermal modeling↗
DOE OSTI2023

Deep-Learning-Based Koopman Modeling for Online Control Synthesis of Nonlinear Power System Transient Dynamics

Power system stability and control have become more challenging due to the increasing uncertainty associated with renewable generation. Here, the performance of conventional control is highly driven by the physics-based offline-developed dynamic models that can deviate from the actual system characteristics under different operating conditions and/or configurations. Data-driven approaches based on online measurements can be a better solution to addressing these issues by capturing real-time operation conditions. This article describes a novel fully data-driven probabilistic framework to derive a linear representation of postcontingency grid dynamics and online prescribe control based on the derived model to enhance transient stability. The complex nonlinear power system dynamics is approximated by a linear model by using multiple neural network modules that infer distributions of the observations and introducing a Koopman layer to sample possible Koopman linear models from the inferred distributions. The trained model features linearity that can be easily incorporated into the existing linear control design paradigm and ease the controller design process. The effectiveness of Koopman-based control designs is validated through comparative case studies, which demonstrate increased prediction accuracy and control performance when applied to a power system with heterogeneous generator dynamics.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating the demand response potential of ammonia plants

Demand-side management/demand response (DSM/DR) are key strategies for mitigating the inherent variability in electricity generation rates by renewable sources. This article represents—to our knowledge—the first foray into assessing the DR potential of ammonia plants. Ammonia plants are interesting candidates for DR initiatives because of their significant electricity use (for operating compressors driving the synthesis loop) and the ability to store the ammonia product relatively easily and safely. Our approach is based on formulating and solving an optimal DR scheduling problem for an ammonia plant while accounting for the process dynamics. To this end, we introduce a new Hammerstein–Wiener-inspired modeling framework based on injecting linear dynamics in a first-principles static nonlinear model of the process. The results are encouraging; for the cases considered, peak-time power consumption decreases between 3.57% and 7.40%, coupled with 1.39% to 3.70% reductions in operating cost.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

1D Modeling for the Development of a Digital Twin for Hydropower Systems with Applications for a Testing Rig

Modeling and simulation constitute two important parts in constructing a sensible digital twin to mimic the dynamics of hydropower systems. Because of the physical nature of a hydropower system, the basic modeling should cover the water flow systems from the reservoir to the penstock (inlet water pipes), penstock to hydro turbine, and hydro turbine to generator and from the linkage of the hydropower systems to the grid. This report describes initial attempts to model these dynamic components, including the formulation of the linearized state space model for hydro turbine systems using the well-known six-coefficients linearization method and the formulation of the voltage and power dynamical models of a synchronous generator. To validate the accuracy of the proposed model, data collected from Norwegian University of Science and Technology were used to obtain relevant parameters for the model, and the desired simulation results were obtained. Additionally, neural network modeling and learning were also developed and applied to model the generation torque and water flow rate subsystems to demonstrate a potential learning scheme, which can be used in the development of a digital twin.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data-Driven Model Predictive Control for Temperature Management of Heat Pipe Microreactor

To enable the self-regulating capability of heat pipe (HP) microreactors, an anticipatory control strategy through model predictive control (MPC) could proactively respond to potential disturbances and deviations in operating setpoints. However, a key factor prohibiting the widespread adoption of MPCs in nuclear applications is the effort and computational costs associated with learning and calibrating first-principles-based process models when the target system is complex and when there are gaps between modeled and target reactor systems. In this paper, we demonstrate data-driven MPC using three approaches for modeling the system dynamics, including a linear state-space model, feedforward neural network, and recurrent neural networks long short-term memory. We present the development and validation process of each model and compare the performance of data-driven MPCs in controlling the temperatures of selected HPs at the evaporator and condenser regions in a 37-HP-monolith system. Our results show that, qualitatively, all data-driven MPCs are producing similar control actions, while quantitatively, with artificial neural nets (especially feedforward neural nets), MPC can better follow drastic changes in setpoints with smallest errors.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Optimizing Signal Timing Control for Large Urban Traffic Networks Using an Adaptive Linear Quadratic Regulator Control Strategy

We discuss how traffic signal control is important for intersection safety and efficiency. However, most traffic signal control methods are designed for individual intersections or corridors. Although some adaptive control systems have been developed, the methods used are often proprietary and not published, making it difficult to evaluate their effectiveness. This study proposes an adaptive multi-input and multi-output traffic signal control method that not only can improve network-wide traffic operations in terms of reduced traffic delay and energy consumption, but also is more computationally feasible than existing centralized signal control methods. Considering intersection interactions, a linear dynamic traffic system model was built and adaptively updated to reflect how the signal control input of each intersection affects network-wide vehicle travel delay. Based on the system model, an adaptive linear-quadratic regulator (LQR) was designed to minimize both traffic delay and incremental changes in the control input. The proposed control method was evaluated in a microscopic traffic simulation environment with a 35-intersection network of Bellevue City, Washington. Simulation results show that the proposed method had shorter average traffic delays in the network when compared with the traffic delays controlled by the state-of-the-art max-pressure, self-organizing traffic lights, and independent deep Q network methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling and Control Using Stochastic Distribution Control Theory for Intersection Traffic Flow

In this work, we investigated stochastic distribution control theory-based traffic signal optimization to achieve a smooth and uniform flow of vehicles through signalized intersections. In this context, the static and linear dynamic stochastic distribution models were developed to express the relationship between the signal timing and the traffic queue length together with its probability density function. Two stochastic distribution control algorithms were designed to control the signal timing at intersections such that the probability density function of the traffic queue of each intersection road segment is made as narrow and as small as possible. Also, a recursive input-output traffic queue estimation model was proposed, which is data-driven and dynamic in nature, to calculate real-time traffic queue length using traffic signal timings and loop-detector data. The control algorithms were evaluated for a one-signal corridor, two-signal corridor, and 2 x 2 network of signalized intersections. MATLAB simulation examples are provided to demonstrate the use of the proposed algorithms and comparison to the existing widely-used semi-actuated control has been made. Desired results were obtained.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data-Driven Modeling and Correction of Vehicle Dynamics

We develop a data-driven framework for learning and correcting nonautonomous vehicle dynamics. Physics-based vehicle models are often simplified for tractability and therefore exhibit inherent model-form uncertainty, motivating the need for data-driven correction. Moreover, nonautonomous dynamics are governed by time-dependent control inputs, which pose challenges in learning predictive models directly from temporal snapshot data. To address these, we reformulate the vehicle dynamics via a local parameterization of the time-dependent inputs, yielding a modified system composed ofa sequence of local parametric dynamical systems. Here, we approximate these parametric systems using two complementary approaches. First, we employ the dimension reduction and interpolation in parameter space (DRIPS) methodology to construct efficient linear surrogate models, equipped with lifted observable spaces and manifold-based operator interpolation. This enables data-efficient learning of vehicle models whose dynamics admit accurate linear representations in the lifted spaces. Second, for more strongly nonlinear systems, we employ flow map learning (FML), a deep neural network (DNN) approach that approximates the parametric evolution map without requiring special treatment of nonlinearities. We further extend FML with a transfer-learning-based model correction procedure, enabling the correction of misspecified prior models using only a sparse set of high-fidelity or experimental measurements, without assuming a prescribed form for the correction term. Through a suite of numerical experiments on unicycle, simplified bicycle, and slip-based bicycle models, we demonstrate that DRIPS offers robust and highly data-efficient learning of nonautonomous vehicle dynamics, while FML provides expressive nonlinear modeling and effective correction of model-form errors under severe data scarcity.

data-driven modeling↗
DOE OSTI2020

Application of Koopman operator for model-based control of fracture propagation and proppant transport in hydraulic fracturing operation

This work explores the application of the recently developed Koopman operator approach for model identification and feedback control of a hydraulic fracturing process. Controlling fracture propagation and proppant transport with precision is a challenge due in large part to the difficulty of constructing approximate models that accurately capture the characteristic moving boundary and highly-coupled dynamics exhibited by the process. Koopman operator theory is particularly attractive here as it offers a way to explicitly construct linear representations for even highly nonlinear dynamics. The method is data-driven and relies on lifting the states to an infinite-dimensional space of functions called observables where the dynamics are governed by a linear Koopman operator. Here this work considers two problems: (a) fracture geometry control, and (b) proppant concentration control. In both cases, an approximate linear model of the corresponding dynamics is constructed and used to design a model predictive controller (MPC). The manuscript shows that in the case of highly nonlinear dynamics, as observed in the proppant concentration, use of canonical functions in the observable basis fails. In such cases, a priori system knowledge can be leveraged to choose the required basis. The numerical experiments demonstrate that the Koopman linear model shows excellent agreement with the real system and successfully achieves the desired target values maximizing the oil and gas productivity. Additionally, due to its linear structure, the Koopman models allow convex MPC formulations that avoid any issues associated with nonlinear optimization.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Topological or rotational non-Abelian gauge fields from Einstein-Skyrme holography

We report analytically known states at non-zero temperature which may serve as a powerful tool to reveal common topological and thermodynamic properties of systems ranging from the QCD phase diagram to topological phase transitions in condensed matter materials. In the holographically dual gravity theory, these are analytic solutions to a five-dimensional non-linear-sigma (Skyrme) model dynamically coupled to Einstein gravity. This theory is shown to be holographically dual to \( \mathcal{N} \) = 4 Super-Yang-Mills theory coupled to an SU(2)-current. All solutions are fully backreacted asymptotically Anti-de Sitter (AdS) black branes or holes. One family of global AdS black hole solutions contains non-Abelian gauge field configurations with positive integer Chern numbers and finite energy density. Larger Chern numbers increase the Hawking-Page transition temperature. In the holographically dual field theory this indicates a significant effect on the deconfinement phase transition. Black holes with one Hawking temperature can have distinct Chern numbers, potentially enabling topological transitions. A second family of analytic solutions, rotating black branes, is also provided. These rotating solutions induce states with propagating charge density waves in the dual field theory. We compute the Hawking temperature, entropy density, angular velocity and free energy for these black holes/branes. These correspond to thermodynamic data in the dual field theory. For these states the energy-momentum tensor, (non-)conserved current, and topological charge are interpreted.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A signal compensation based cascaded PI control for an industrial heat exchange system

Since the characteristics of the industrial heat exchange system (HES) are drastically affected by variations of the steam pressure, ambient temperature and water quality, it is difficult for the classical cascade PI control system to meet the desirable control objectives. Therefore, in this paper, a deterministic linear model with unmodeled dynamics is used to describe the dynamic characteristics of the HES. It should be noted that the unmodeled dynamics at the previously sampled instant can be calculated using actual measurements and that the tracking error, which includes effects of the rate of changes of unmodeled dynamics on the controlled model, can be accurately determined. An additional compensating signal is obtained with the feedforward control together with a one-step optimal control law. Consequently, the cascade PI control strategy with the signal compensation is established. Furthermore, the simulation and industrial application show that the proposed method can effectively improve the performance of the cascade PI control system, especially when the unmodeled dynamics is subjected to unknown variations.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Phase-Locking of Tropical North Atlantic and the Contribution of ENSO

The Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) is characterized by significant interannual variability in sea surface temperature (SST), which is phase-locked to the boreal spring. In this study, the phase-locking of TNA is investigated by adopting a linear stochastic-dynamical model (SDM) using seasonally modulated TNA feedbacks together with the seasonal modulation of ENSO forcing. In the observations, the role of local TNA feedbacks and ENSO forcing in TNA phase-locking are equivalently important with both preferring the peak of TNA variability to appear in the boreal spring. Besides, the seasonal modulation of TNA feedbacks and ENSO forcing strength are both mainly controlled by thermodynamic processes. In most climate models, the contribution of ENSO on TNA phase-locking is weaker than that in observations. The strength of ENSO-related TNA phase-locking is highly correlated with the relationship between ENSO and TNA, which is mainly determined by the amplitude of ENSO and its teleconnection patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simultaneous control of the electron temperature and safety factor profiles in DIII-D using model-based optimal control techniques

Future tokamak power plants will likely operate using a single, well-defined plasma scenario, either in steady state or for very long pulse lengths. In order to enhance the robustness of the scenario, feedback controllers for a variety of plasma properties will be necessary to counteract any disturbances and ensure safe operation. However, only a limited set of actuators will be available to control many different quantities. Because of this, it is necessary to develop controllers that are able to regulate multiple plasma properties using a limited set of actuators. To this end, a controller has been developed for the simultaneous regulation of both the electron temperature and safety factor profiles in DIII-D. This algorithm uses a linear quadratic integral control synthesis approach based on a linearized model of the dynamics of the two profiles. Two neural network surrogate models, NubeamNet and MMMnet, are included to improve the fidelity of the model. Furthermore, the controller has been tested in simulation using COTSIM, and has demonstrated the ability to simultaneously track changes in both the electron temperature and safety factor targets, including changes in both the magnitude and the shape of the profiles.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantum dynamics simulations of the 2D spectroscopy for exciton polaritons

We develop an accurate and numerically efficient non-adiabatic path-integral approach to simulate the non-linear spectroscopy of exciton–polariton systems. This approach is based on the partial linearized density matrix approach to model the exciton dynamics with explicit propagation of the phonon bath environment, combined with a stochastic Lindblad dynamics approach to model the cavity loss dynamics. Through simulating both linear and polariton two-dimensional electronic spectra, we systematically investigate how light–matter coupling strength and cavity loss rate influence the optical response signal. Our results confirm the polaron decoupling effect, which is the reduced exciton–phonon coupling among polariton states due to the strong light–matter interactions. We further demonstrate that the polariton coherence time can be significantly prolonged compared to the electronic coherence outside the cavity.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Predicting September Arctic Sea Ice: A Multimodel Seasonal Skill Comparison

This study quantifies the state of the art in the rapidly growing field of seasonal Arctic sea ice prediction. A novel multimodel dataset of retrospective seasonal predictions of September Arctic sea ice is created and analyzed, consisting of community contributions from 17 statistical models and 17 dynamical models. Prediction skill is compared over the period 2001–20 for predictions of pan-Arctic sea ice extent (SIE), regional SIE, and local sea ice concentration (SIC) initialized on 1 June, 1 July, 1 August, and 1 September. This diverse set of statistical and dynamical models can individually predict linearly detrended pan-Arctic SIE anomalies with skill, and a multimodel median prediction has correlation coefficients of 0.79, 0.86, 0.92, and 0.99 at these respective initialization times. Regional SIE predictions have similar skill to pan-Arctic predictions in the Alaskan and Siberian regions, whereas regional skill is lower in the Canadian, Atlantic, and central Arctic sectors. The skill of dynamical and statistical models is generally comparable for pan-Arctic SIE, whereas dynamical models outperform their statistical counterparts for regional and local predictions. The prediction systems are found to provide the most value added relative to basic reference forecasts in the extreme SIE years of 1996, 2007, and 2012. SIE prediction errors do not show clear trends over time, suggesting that there has been minimal change in inherent sea ice predictability over the satellite era. Overall, this study demonstrates that there are bright prospects for skillful operational predictions of September sea ice at least 3 months in advance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Explaining drivers of housing prices with nonlinear hedonic regressions

Housing markets play a critical role in shaping the spatial and demographic evolution of urban areas. Simulating housing price dynamics can enhance projections of future urban development outcomes. However, traditional hedonic regressions for housing prices, which neglect nonlinear interactions among explanatory variables, often exhibit limited predictive performance. While machine learning (ML) methods can provide a more flexible representation of the relationships between predictors, they are often regarded as “black boxes” due to their complexity and lack of transparency. Interpretable ML techniques provide a promising route by combining the flexibility of ML methods with approaches to analyze the relationships between inputs and outputs. In this study, we employ interpretable ML to analyze the patterns driving the housing market in Baltimore, Maryland, USA. We train an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to predict Baltimore housing prices based on structural characteristics (e.g., home size, number of stories) and locational attributes (e.g., distance to the city center). We then conduct sensitivity and Partial Dependence Plot (PDP) analyses to interpret the fitted ANN model. We find that the ML model achieves higher predictive accuracy and explains 16 % more of housing price variance than a traditional linear regression model. The interpretable ML model also reveals more nuanced and realistic nonlinear relationships between housing sales price and predictors as well as interactive effects underlying Baltimore home price dynamics. For instance, while the linear model indicates a steady housing price increase over time, our interpretable ML model detects a post-2008 decline, with smaller properties experiencing the sharpest drop.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗