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At least 37 records · Page 2

Wet and dry plastic deposition data for western US National Atmospheric Deposition Program sites (2017-2019)

Raw plastic counts and calculated plastic deposition rates for 11 National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP) sites in the western USA recorded from 2017-2019. Samples were collected to determine plastic deposition rates in remote locations and identify the potential sources of plastic to the atmosphere. Samples were collected using an Aerochem Metrics Wet and Dry sampler. Wet deposition refers to the material retained on a 0.45-micron filter. Dry deposition refers to the dry only deposition collected using a Dry Side Insert (DSI) (Brahney et al. 2020). Plastics are identified as either fibers or particles (includes small colored films). Wet deposition rates are recorded weekly and dry plastic deposition rates are based on monthly sampling intervals. Sites included are Grand Canyon National Park (AZ03), Joshua Tree National Park (CA67), Rocky Mountain National Park (CO98), Niwot Ridge (CO02), Ashley National Forest (UT95), East River SFA (CO10)), Craters of the Moon National Park (ID03), Great Basin National Park (NV05), Canyonlands National Park (UT09), Bryce Canyon Nationa Park (UT99), and Wind River Range (WY06). Data collection is being published in collaboration with the Department of Energy's research project, "Constraining physical understanding of aerosol loading, biogeochemistry, and snowmelt hydrology from hillslope to watershed scale in the East River Scientific Focus Areas.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Surface-based observations of cold-air outbreak clouds during the COMBLE field campaign

Abstract. Cold-air outbreaks (CAOs) are characterized by extreme air–sea energy exchanges and low-level convective clouds over large areas in the high-latitude oceans. As such, CAOs are an important component of the Earth's climate system. The CAOs in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment (COMBLE) deployment of the US Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Mobile Facility (AMF) provided the first comprehensive view of CAOs using a suite of ground-based observations at the northern coast of Norway. Here, cloud and precipitation observations from 13 CAO cases during COMBLE are analyzed. A vertical air motion retrieval technique is applied to the Ka-band ARM Zenith-pointing Radar (KAZR) observations. The CAO cumulus clouds are characterized by strong updrafts with magnitudes between 2–8 m s−1, vertical extents of 1–3 km, and horizontal scales of 0.25–3 km. A strong relationship between our vertical air velocity retrievals and liquid water path (LWP) measurements is found. The LWP measurements exceed 1 kg m−2 in strong updraft areas, and the vertical extent of the updraft correlates well with the LWP values. The CAO cumulus clouds exhibit eddy dissipation rate values between 10−3 and 10−2 m2 s−3 in the lowest 10 km of the atmosphere, and using a radar Doppler spectra technique, evidence of secondary ice production is found during one of the cases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Effects of coupling a stochastic convective parameterization with the Zhang–McFarlane scheme on precipitation simulation in the DOE E3SMv1.0 atmosphere model

Abstract. A stochastic deep convection parameterization is implemented into the US Department of Energy (DOE) Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Atmosphere Model version 1.0 (EAMv1). This study evaluates its performance in simulating precipitation. Compared to the default model, the probability distribution function (PDF) of rainfall intensity in the new simulation is greatly improved. The well-known problem of “too much light rain and too little heavy rain” is alleviated, especially over the tropics. As a result, the contribution from different rain rates to the total precipitation amount is shifted toward heavier rain. The less frequent occurrence of convection contributes to suppressed light rain, while more intense large-scale and convective precipitation contributes to enhanced heavy total rain. The synoptic and intraseasonal variabilities of precipitation are enhanced as well to be closer to observations. The sensitivity of the rainfall intensity PDF to the model vertical resolution is examined. The relationship between precipitation and dilute convective available potential energy in the stochastic simulation agrees better with that in the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) observations compared with the standard model simulation. The annual mean precipitation is largely unchanged with the use of the stochastic scheme except over the tropical western Pacific, where a moderate increase in precipitation represents a slight improvement. The responses of precipitation and its extremes to climate warming are similar with or without the stochastic deep convection scheme.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mesoscale Convective Systems in a Superparameterized E3SM Simulation at High Resolution

Accurately representing mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is crucial to simulating the energy and water cycles in global climate models. Using a novel MCS identification and tracking algorithm applied to observations and model simulations, we evaluate how well the Energy Exascale Earth System Model simulates MCSs over the central US. Simulations performed by E3SM at 25 km grid spacing with (SP-E3SM) and without (E3SM) superparameterization are compared and evaluated against observations using multiple metrics highlighting important MCS characteristics. Compared to E3SM, SP-E3SM better simulates MCS number and MCS precipitation amount, diurnal cycle, propagation, and the probability distribution of precipitation rate in both spring and summer. The improvement from SP is partly contributed by improvement in simulating the large-scale environments, featuring enhanced atmospheric low-level moisture and larger moisture transport to the central US relative to E3SM. However, SP-E3SM still underestimates MCS precipitation amount, particularly in summer. This underestimation is closely related to the negative bias in MCS precipitation intensity, although the drier environments simulated during summer also contributes to underestimation of MCS frequency. Without SP, the larger bias in MCS precipitation amount is closely related to the negative bias in MCS frequency, while the substantial dry bias in the large-scale environments also contributes to underestimation of MCS intensity. Our results suggest that SP improves MCS simulation by improving modeling of the large-scale environments and convection initiation, which are both major limiting factors in E3SM even at 25 km grid spacing where deep convection is represented by a cumulus parameterization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Abrupt reduction in shipping emission as an inadvertent geoengineering termination shock produces substantial radiative warming

Abstract Human activities affect the Earth’s climate through modifying the composition of the atmosphere, which then creates radiative forcing that drives climate change. The warming effect of anthropogenic greenhouse gases has been partially balanced by the cooling effect of anthropogenic aerosols. In 2020, fuel regulations abruptly reduced the emission of sulfur dioxide from international shipping by about 80% and created an inadvertent geoengineering termination shock with global impact. Here we estimate the regulation leads to a radiative forcing of $$+0.2\pm 0.11$$ + 0.2 ± 0.11 Wm −2 averaged over the global ocean. The amount of radiative forcing could lead to a doubling (or more) of the warming rate in the 2020 s compared with the rate since 1980 with strong spatiotemporal heterogeneity. The warming effect is consistent with the recent observed strong warming in 2023 and expected to make the 2020 s anomalously warm. The forcing is equivalent in magnitude to 80% of the measured increase in planetary heat uptake since 2020. The radiative forcing also has strong hemispheric contrast, which has important implications for precipitation pattern changes. Our result suggests marine cloud brightening may be a viable geoengineering method in temporarily cooling the climate that has its unique challenges due to inherent spatiotemporal heterogeneity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of Autoconversion Representation in E3SMv2 Using an Ensemble of Large-Eddy Simulations of Low-Level Warm Clouds

In numerical atmospheric models that treat cloud and rain droplet populations as separate condensate categories, precipitation initiation in warm clouds is often represented by an autoconversion rate (Au), which is the rate of formation of new rain droplets through the collisions of cloud droplets. Being a function of the cloud droplet size distribution (DSD), the local Au is commonly parameterized as a function of DSD moments: cloud droplet number (n c ) and mass (q c ) concentrations. When applied in a large-scale model, the grid-mean Au must also include a correction, or enhancement factor, to account for the horizontal variability of the cloud properties across the model grid. In this study, we evaluate the Au representation in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) climate model using large-eddy simulations (LES), which explicitly resolve cloud droplet spectra, and therefore the local Au, as well as its spatial variability. The analysis of an ensemble of warm low-level cloud cases shows that the E3SMv2 formulation represents the Au reasonably well compared to the horizontally averaged explicitly computed rate from LES. The agreement, however, comes from a combination of an underestimated E3SM-tuned local Au rate and an overestimated subgrid cloud variability enhancement factor. The latter bias is traced to neglecting the horizontal variability of n c and its co-variability with q c in parameterizing the grid-mean Au.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Precipitation Trade Wind Cumuli within EUREC 4 A Field Campaign Report

The campaign Trades Cumuli Precipitation Initiation and Characterization (TCPIC) within the overarching Elucidating the Role of Clouds-Circulation Coupling in Climate EUREC 4 A campaign took place from 17 January 2020 to 20 February 2020, a total of 35 days. The campaign complemented the more extensive EUREC 4 A campaign focusing on cumulus clouds' role in the Earth's climate. TCPIC concentrated on understanding what triggers the onset and development of precipitation in trade wind cumulus clouds. The campaign requested the deployment of the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Mobile Facility (AMF) roll, pitch, and heave (RPH) stabilization platform to stabilize two radars on the Maria S. Merian research vessel (RV). The advanced remote-sensing techniques from stabilized radars characterized the entire precipitation life cycle, from the formation of larger cloud drops to precipitation evaporating on its way to the surface. Retrievals of evaporation rates, to track how rain affects the trade wind boundary layer, will be based on the zenith-pointing Doppler observations collected from the stabilized micro rain radar (MRR). Figure 1 shows the instrumentation's deployment on the RV: we installed the AMF RPH stabilization platform and the radars on the uppermost deck (peil deck) of the ship. For installing the devices, we coordinated a test phase of the equipment on the Maria S. Merian RV from 25 to 29 October 2019 in Emden harbor, Germany. In this testing phase, we set up all the connections, tested how to mount the W-band and the micro rain radars firmly on the table, and experimented with guided movements of the table to test the resistance of the whole system. Figure 1 shows the final tests conducted in Emden with the stable platform and the radars mounted.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Estimated timescales for wet deposition of organic compounds as a function of Henry's law constants

Atmospheric organic compounds may deposit to Earth's surfaces via dry deposition, driven by concentration gradients, and wet deposition, driven by the scavenging of compounds by precipitation. Their removal by deposition has downstream impacts on concentrations of secondary organic aerosol by removing potential aerosol precursors that would otherwise oxidize to form particulate matter. The impact of deposition processes can consequently be considered as competition between rates of oxidation and deposition, but timescales for deposition are not well constrained. While timescales for dry deposition have been estimated and experimentally validated in the past, understanding of wet deposition of organics is still very limited. In this work, we estimate the wet deposition timescale for gas-phase organic compounds in the atmosphere as a function of Henry's law constants, H, using real-world precipitation frequency and size distributions at five globally-distributed sites. The wet deposition timescale decreases significantly with the increase of H until reaching a stable minimum for compounds with H > 10 5 M per atm. We estimate that the median wet deposition timescale for highly soluble gases is approximately 5 hours during a continuous rain event for all sites. However, median estimated timescales ranged from 80 to 200 hours, depending on location. Timescales are found to depend primarily on the frequency and duration of precipitation events rather than their intensity or size characteristics. Based on these data, we demonstrate that timescales for wet deposition of gases can be estimated at any given location using only basic precipitation information, without detailed or high-precision measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

U–Pb Geochronology and Stable Isotope Geochemistry of Terrestrial Carbonates, Lower Cretaceous Cedar Mountain Formation, Utah: Implications for Synchronicity of Terrestrial and Marine Carbon Isotope Excursions

The terrestrial Lower Cretaceous Cedar Mountain Formation, Utah, is a critical archive of paleoclimate, tectonics, and vertebrate ecology and evolution. Early Cretaceous carbon cycle perturbations associated with ocean anoxia have been interpreted from this succession, as expressed in stable carbon isotopes. However, refining the timing of the observed stable isotope excursions remains a key challenge in understanding how marine anoxia affects the Earth system, and is ultimately recorded in the terrestrial realm. The geochronology and geochemistry of a terrestrial carbonate near the base of this succession, which potentially records the Ap7 global carbon isotope excursion, is studied here. Petrographic and geochemical analyses are used to test plausible mechanisms for U incorporation into the calcite lattice in this sample. Using these methods, the hypothesis that the incorporation of U was at or close to the timing of carbonate precipitation is evaluated. U–Pb geochronology of calcite indicates a plausible Early Cretaceous age. However, comparison of the new U–Pb ages of calcite with detrital zircon maximum depositional ages immediately beneath the studied sample indicates a disparity in the apparent sedimentation rates if both types of geochronologic information are interpreted as reflecting the timing of sediment deposition. The totality of data supports an early, and high-temperature, diagenetic timing of U incorporation, with potential for minor leaching of U in subsequent fluid–rock interaction. The most likely mechanism for U transport and immobilization in these samples is hydrothermal fluid–rock interaction. Therefore, the radiometric ages, and corresponding stable isotope composition of U-bearing carbonate domains in this sample, indicate early subsurface fluid–rock interactions and not a record of atmosphere–soil geochemical reactions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The International Space Station Lightning Imaging Sensor: Performance, Applications, and Cross-Platform Science

The Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS), an optically based lightning detector developed at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, was launched to the International Space Station (ISS) in February 2017, detecting optical signatures of lightning with storm-scale horizontal resolution (4-km) during both day and night. ISS LIS data are available 1 March 2017 to present. Millisecond timing allows detailed intercalibration and validation with other spaceborne and ground-based lightning sensors. Initial comparisons with those other sensors suggest flash detection efficiency around 60% (diurnal variability of 51-75%), false alarm rate under 5%, timing accuracy better than 2 ms, and horizontal location accuracy around 3 km. The spatially uniform flash detection capability of ISS LIS from low-Earth orbit allows assessment of spatially varying flash detection efficiency for other sensors and networks, particularly the Geostationary Lightning Mappers (GLMs). ISS LIS provides research data suitable for investigations of lightning physics, climatology, thunderstorm processes, and atmospheric composition, as well as realtime lightning data for operational forecasting and aviation weather interests. ISS LIS enables enrichment and extension of the long-term global climatology of lightning from space, and is the only recent platform that extends the global record to higher latitudes (± 55°). The global spatial distribution of lightning from ISS LIS is broadly similar to previous datasets, with globally averaged seasonal/annual flash rates (3-year average: ~44 s) about 5-10% lower. This difference is likely due to reduced flash detection efficiency that will be mitigated in future ISS LIS data processing, as well as the shorter ISS LIS period of record. The expected land/ocean contrast in the diurnal variability of global lightning is also observed. The near-realtime ISS LIS data make the instrument important to operational weather forecasting and related applications, including public safety. Finally, ISS LIS is demonstrating utility as part (or potential part) of cross-platform studies examining a diverse array of topics, including lightning physics, thunderstorm processes, convective precipitation, and atmospheric composition.

Timothy Lang↗

Deficient precipitation sensitivity to Sahel land surface forcings among CMIP5 models

Abstract The overall performance of the simulated seasonal precipitation response to local terrestrial forcings, namely vegetation abundance and soil moisture, in the Sahel among the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Five (CMIP5) Earth System Models (ESMs) is systematically investigated and compared with its observational counterpart using a multivariate statistical method. The observed seasonal precipitation response is evaluated against a large ensemble of observational, reanalysis, and satellite data sets to provide quantification of uncertainties. The behaviour of models with and without a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) component is also explored, along with the mechanisms responsible for terrestrial feedback on rainfall. In general, the CMIP5 models can reasonably capture the seasonal evolution of Sahel precipitation and soil moisture, albeit with wet biases during the pre‐monsoon period and dry biases during the peak monsoon period. The non‐DGVM ESMs simulate comparable leaf area indices (LAIs) with observations, while DGVM‐enabled ESMs simulate too much year‐round LAI. The variance of precipitation that is attributed to oceanic forcings in CMIP5 is comparable with observations; however, the variance of precipitation that is attributed to terrestrial forcings is smaller in CMIP5 models than observed, especially for non‐DGVM ESMs. CMIP5 models, especially those without DGVMs, undervalue precipitation's observed response strength to soil moisture anomalies. In both observations and CMIP5 models, none of the atmospheric variables show significant responses to direct vegetation forcing, except for the response in transpiration. Although vegetation has minimal direct effect on the atmospheric state, it can affect the atmosphere by modifying soil moisture and transpiration rate indirectly, which helps explain the more realistic simulation of rainfall in DGVM‐enabled ESMs than non‐DGVM ESMs. Coupling of an ESM to a DGVM is critical in generating reasonable land–atmosphere feedback and examining future ecological and climatic changes over the Sahel.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Response of the Current Climate to Land‐Ocean Contrasts in Parameterized Cumulus Entrainment

Abstract Cumulus entrainment substantially regulates the earth's climate but remains poorly constrained in global climate models. Recent studies have shown that cumulus bulk entrainment (or dilution) is particularly sensitive to continentality, with the entrainment rate in simulated maritime cumuli nearly double that of continental cumuli. This study examines the impacts of such land–ocean entrainment contrasts on the current climate using 21‐year simulations with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's High‐Resolution Atmospheric Model (HIRAM). In response to a 25% reduction in the HIRAM entrainment parameter c 0 over land, precipitation over tropical land regions increases by up to 40%. Along with directly facilitating enhanced convective precipitation, this c 0 reduction induces an increase in soil moisture, which may contribute to a further enhancement of convective precipitation over land. A 25% c 0 reduction over the oceans leads to more widespread modifications of convection patterns, with the strongest signal in the tropical Pacific. Deep convection shifts upstream (eastward) there, inducing enhanced large‐scale ascent over the central Pacific with compensating subsidence and reduced humidity and precipitation over the western Pacific (WP). Land–ocean variations in c 0 project onto the Pacific Walker circulation, with the 25% land reduction strengthening it by 4% and the 25% ocean reduction weakening it by 14%. These changes are driven by variations in convective and large‐scale stratiform heating over the Pacific. While reduced c 0 over land enhances diabatic heating in the Maritime Continent to strengthen the Walker circulation, reduced c 0 over the oceans decreases diabatic heating in the WP to weaken the Walker circulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Using AI to build a hydrobiogeochemical soil model

Soil water content is a function of inputs from precipitation and outputs via evaporation, transpiration, lateral flow, and vertical percolation, and is sensitive to biogeochemical processes. As such, soils serve as an ideal integrator of atmospheric, hydrological, and biogeochemical processes affecting the water cycle. In addition, soil water retention capacity, infiltration rates, and hydraulic conductivity can buffer or exacerbate the effects of extreme precipitation events (e.g., flooding, runoff, subsurface transport, erosion, greenhouse gas emissions) and mitigate the impact of droughts and heat waves on land systems (e.g., fire, crop failure). However, integrating water cycle measurements spanning different land atmosphere compartments across scales is a fundamental barrier for numerical model predictability. A significant challenge is that each domain (soil, hydrology, biology, and atmosphere) typically collects different sets of data at different temporal and spatial frequencies/scales, and even different dimensionalities (2D vs 3D). To implement soil as an integrator of the water cycle in land models, we suggest that novel machine learning (ML) tools can be developed to effectively simulate complex landscapes across various domains and scales, extended to regions with sparse or no data. The ultimate goals are to improve predictive understanding of land-atmosphere interactions and to extend the predictability of current Earth System Models (ESMs) through better integration of hydrological and biogeochemical data. We envision a framework in which: (1) ML-aided data reconstructions enable the merger of data sources into a unified geospatial product; (2) automated detection techniques are used to improve the knowledge of complex soil processes and interactions; and (3) this knowledge is leveraged and incorporated into models through AI-based emulators to distinctly connect the land and atmospheric compartments of the water cycle in models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Interconnection of Aerosol‐Cloud Interactions and Cloud Feedback Through Warm Rain Process

Recent research has revealed a correlation within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations: models exhibiting more pronounced warming due to positive cloud feedback simultaneously show enhanced cooling from aerosol‐cloud interactions (ACI). However, the interplay between ACI and cloud feedback is not well understood in these models. Our study addresses this gap by modifying the autoconversion rate in two Earth system models (ESMs), elucidating how ACI could connect with cloud feedback through the warm rain process. We find that higher autoconversion rates, which are associated with stronger ACI, suppress the increase in cloud liquid water path (LWP) and cloud optical depth with warming by enhancing the precipitation efficiency over the extratropical regions, leading to a larger positive cloud feedback. This study offers new insights into the compensatory mechanism between ACI and cloud feedback through the warm rain process and highlights the importance of constraining the autoconversion parameterization in models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Rapid SACR Observations of Convection at Bankhead National Forest (RAPID) Field Campaign Report

Improving our representation of convective cell processes requires better quantification of convective clouds throughout their entire life cycle. This includes gaining a clearer understanding of the controls on key convective cloud properties, such as updraft intensity, particle size distributions, rainfall rates, and hydrometeor species. Our inability to improve convective cloud process modeling stems, in part, from a limited understanding of convective cell properties, particularly given how rapidly these storms evolve. This lack of detailed observations in the most intense and organized convective storms is especially significant, as large errors remain in representing these clouds, which are critical for severe weather prediction and Earth system model performance. Cloud and precipitation radars are essential tools for studying cloud microphysics and dynamics, particularly in deeper convective clouds. The recent U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility’s third Mobile Facility (AMF3) Bankhead National Forest (BNF) deployment provides a unique opportunity to investigate important land–atmosphere interactions, as well as the environmental controls on deep convective cloud processes, in a location favorable for frequent convection. We operate the X/Ka-band Scanning ARM Cloud Radar (X/Ka SACR) using a scan strategy optimized to capture these rapidly evolving clouds and their properties, thereby improving studies of deep convective cloud processes. This effort is strengthened by a complementary and coordinated partnership with ongoing university and multi-agency radar activities collocated in north Alabama—a unique opportunity to examine clouds and precipitation from a lifetime-centric perspective.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Causes of Reduced Climate Sensitivity in E3SM From Version 1 to Version 2

The effective climate sensitivity in the Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) has decreased from 5.3 K in version 1 to 4.0 K in version 2. This reduction is mainly due to a weaker positive cloud feedback that leads to a stronger negative radiative feedback. Present-day atmosphere-only experiments with uniform 4 K sea surface temperature warming are used to separate the contributions of individual model modifications to the reduced cloud feedback. We find that the reduced cloud feedback is mostly driven by changes over the tropical marine low cloud regime, mainly related to a new trigger function for the deep convection scheme and modifications in the cloud microphysics scheme. The new trigger function helps weaken the low cloud reduction by increasing the cloud water detrainment at low levels from deep convection under warming. Changes to the formula of autoconversion rate from liquid to rain and an introduced minimum cloud droplet number concentration threshold in cloud microphysical calculations help sustain clouds against dissipation by suppressing precipitation generation with warming. In the midlatitudes, the increased Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen (WBF) efficiency strongly reduces present-day liquid water and leads to a stronger negative cloud optical depth feedback. The reduced trade cumulus cloud feedback in v2 is closer to estimates from recent observational and large-eddy modeling studies but might not be due to the right physical reasons. The reduced mid-latitude cloud feedback may be more plausible because more realistic present-day mixed-phase clouds are produced through the change in the WBF efficiency.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Anticipating how rain-on-snow events will change through the 21st century: lessons from the 1997 new year’s flood event

The California-Nevada 1997 New Year’s flood was an atmospheric river (AR)-driven rain-on-snow (RoS) event and remains the costliest in their history. The joint occurrence of saturated soils, rainfall, and snowmelt generated inundation throughout northern California-Nevada. Although AR RoS events are projected to occur more frequently with climate change, the warming sensitivity of their flood drivers across scales remains understudied. We leverage the regionally refined mesh capabilities of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (RRM-E3SM) to recreate the 1997 New Year’s flood with horizontal grid spacings of 3.5 km across California, with forecast lead times of up to 4 days, and across six warming levels ranging from pre-industrial conditions to +3.5° C. We describe the sensitivity of the flood drivers to warming including AR duration and intensity, precipitation phase, intensity and efficiency, snowpack mass and energy changes, and runoff efficiency. Our findings indicate current levels of climate change negligibly influence the flood drivers. At warming levels ≥ 1.7° C, AR hazard potential increases, snowpack nonlinearly decreases, antecedent soil moisture decreases (except where the snowline retreats), and runoff decreases (except in the southern Sierra Nevada where antecedent snowpack persists). Storm total precipitation increases, but at rates below warming-induced increases in saturation-specific humidity. Warming intensifies short-duration, high-intensity rainfall, particularly where snowfall-to-rainfall transitions occur. This study highlights the nonlinear tradeoffs in 21st-century RoS flood hazards with warming and provides water management and infrastructure investment adaptation considerations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Exploring Mars for Evidence of Habitable Environments and Life

The climate of Mars has been more similar to that of Earth than has the climate of any other planet in our Solar System. But Mars still provides a valuable alternative example of how planetary processes and environments can affect the potential presence of life elsewhere. For example, although Mars also differentiated very early into a core, mantle and crust, it then evolved mostly if not completely without plate tectonics and has lost most of its early atmosphere. The Martian crust has been more stable than that of Earth, thus it has probably preserved a more complete record of its earliest history. Orbital observations determined that near-surface water was once pervasive. Orbiters have identified the following diverse aqueous sedimentary deposits: layered phyllosilicates, phyllosilicates in intracrater fans, plains sediments potentially harboring evaporitic minerals, deep phyllosilicates, carbonate-bearing deposits, intracrater clay-sulfate deposits, Meridiani-type layered deposits, valles-type layered deposits, hydrated silica-bearing deposits, and gypsum plains. These features, together with evidence of more vigorous past geologic activity, indicate that early climates were wetter and perhaps also somewhat warmer. The denser atmosphere that was required for liquid water to be stable on the surface also provided more substantial protection from radiation. Whereas ancient climates might have favored habitable environments at least in some localities, clearly much of the Martian surface for most of its history has been markedly less favorable for life. The combination of dry conditions, oxidizing surface environments and typically low rates of sedimentation are not conducive to the preservation of evidence of ancient environments and any biota. Thus a strategy is required whereby candidate sites are first identified and then characterized for their potential to preserve evidence of past habitable environments. Rovers are then sent to explore the most promising candidates. The Mars Exploration Rover (MER) Opportunity revealed that water once flowed to the surface across the vast Meridiani plains, creating saline lakes whose waters were roiled by ancient winds that also sculptured their salt deposits into sand dunes. Opportunity then drove more than 30 km to explore even older deposits on a crater rim. MER Spirit found evidence that thermal waters (heated by volcanism or by impacts?) altered rocks to create sulfate salts, and siliceous sinters. These discoveries indicate that an early hydrological cycle apparently sustained precipitation, streams and lakes. Liquid water participated in rock weathering reactions, such as iron and sulfur oxidation, that created distinctive weathering regimes. Volcanism, impacts, groundwater and ice interacted at least locally. Redox chemical energy from volcanism, hydrothermal activity and weathering of crustal materials would have been available for any life. Thus conditions might have supported life in the past, at least locally. The main objective of the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) Curiosity rover is to determine the extent to which Gale crater hosted environments capable of supporting microbial life. The rover has already found stream gravels as well as sediments that might have been deposited in an ancient lake. The rover is now traversing to Mt. Sharp, a 5 km-high mound that is located on the crater floor and that exhibits layered sedimentary rocks having diverse minerals (sulfates and clays) that apparently formed in the presence of liquid water. This rock sequence was deposited over an extended time period in diverse potentially habitable watery environments. Curiosity is poised to characterize a a well-preserved rock record of hundreds of millions of years of diverse environments and profound climate change.

layered phyllosilicates↗